Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
Research article
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07 Oct 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 07 Oct 2022

The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet

Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J.​​​​​​​ Payne, Jeff K.​​​​​​​ Ridley, and Colin G. Jones

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Cited articles

Abalos, M., Calvo, N., Benito-Barca, S., Garny, H., Hardiman, S. C., Lin, P., Andrews, M. B., Butchart, N., Garcia, R., Orbe, C., Saint-Martin, D., Watanabe, S., and Yoshida, K.: The Brewer–Dobson circulation in CMIP6, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13571–13591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13571-2021, 2021. 
Abram, N., Gattuso, J.-P., Prakash, A., Cheng, L., Chidichimo, M. P., Crate, S., Enomoto, H., Garschagen, M., Gruber, N., Harper, S., Holland, E., Kudela, R. M., Rice, J., Steffen, K., and von Schuckmann, K.: Framing and Context of the Report. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 73–129, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.003, 2019. 
Adams, M. F., Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., and McCorquodale, P.: Composite matrix construction for structured grid adaptive mesh refinement, Comput. Phys. Commun., 244, 35–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpc.2019.07.006, 2019. 
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M. R.: Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 616–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0616-z, 2020. 
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Co-editor-in-chief
This study draws attention to some important processes for ice sheet mass loss. In particular, the warm-water incursions onto the large ice shelves in the late 21st century, inducing more melt, have big implications for the future contribution to SLR from Antarctica.
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
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