Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
07 Oct 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 07 Oct 2022

The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet

Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J.​​​​​​​ Payne, Jeff K.​​​​​​​ Ridley, and Colin G. Jones

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-371', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Jan 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antony Siahaan, 17 Apr 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on tc-2021-371', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antony Siahaan, 17 Apr 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (19 Apr 2022) by Alexander Robinson
AR by Antony Siahaan on behalf of the Authors (05 Jul 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (11 Jul 2022) by Alexander Robinson
AR by Antony Siahaan on behalf of the Authors (19 Jul 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (29 Jul 2022) by Alexander Robinson
AR by Antony Siahaan on behalf of the Authors (04 Aug 2022)
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Co-editor-in-chief
This study draws attention to some important processes for ice sheet mass loss. In particular, the warm-water incursions onto the large ice shelves in the late 21st century, inducing more melt, have big implications for the future contribution to SLR from Antarctica.
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.