Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet
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- Final revised paper (published on 07 Oct 2022)
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 Dec 2021)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on tc-2021-371', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Jan 2022
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antony Siahaan, 17 Apr 2022
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RC2: 'Comment on tc-2021-371', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2022
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antony Siahaan, 17 Apr 2022
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (19 Apr 2022) by Alexander Robinson
AR by Antony Siahaan on behalf of the Authors (05 Jul 2022)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (11 Jul 2022) by Alexander Robinson
AR by Antony Siahaan on behalf of the Authors (19 Jul 2022)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (29 Jul 2022) by Alexander Robinson
AR by Antony Siahaan on behalf of the Authors (04 Aug 2022)
General comments
This paper is a major step forward for coupled ice sheet–climate modeling. It presents results from the first simulations using a complex Earth system model with full two-way coupling of ice sheets to the atmosphere and ocean, for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (though Antarctica is the focus here). Many earlier studies have argued for the importance of coupling and speculated on what might happen when feedbacks are included. Here, these speculations are put to the test, in ensemble simulations to 2100 for both low-emission and high-emission scenarios. The authors explain why their study is novel, while giving due credit to previous work. The paper is well structured and clearly written, with figures and tables that effectively illustrate the main findings.
The results are both plausible and interesting. For me, the most important findings are (1) the intrusion of warm water into the Ross and Filchner Ice Shelf cavities by the end of this century under a high-emission scenario, with consistent timing across ensemble members; (2) the absence of a strong response in the Amundsen Sea region, where warm water is already present in cavities; (3) the fact that increased snowfall (a near-term response to warming) adds more mass above flotation than the ice sheet dynamic response can remove by 2100, but with the likelihood that the dynamic response would accelerate in the 22nd century. There are many uncertainties – related, for example, to the coarse ocean resolution and the challenges of ice-sheet spin-up. The authors acknowledge these uncertainties and are careful (except for a few minor cases noted below) not to draw conclusions that go beyond the data.
I have some suggestions to sharpen the text and to guide readers who may be unfamiliar with some of the details, but no major criticisms.
Specific comments
Technical corrections