Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
07 Oct 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 07 Oct 2022
| 07 Oct 2022
The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet
Antony Siahaan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Robin S. Smith
NCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Paul R. Holland
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Adrian Jenkins
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
now at: Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
Jonathan M. Gregory
NCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Victoria Lee
CPOM, Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Pierre Mathiot
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
now at: Institut des Geosciences de l'Environnement, Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Antony J. Payne
CPOM, Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Jeff K. Ridley
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Colin G. Jones
NCAS, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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Cited
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount P. Goddard et al. 10.1029/2023JD039434
- Combining “Deep Learning” and Physically Constrained Neural Networks to Derive Complex Glaciological Change Processes from Modern High-Resolution Satellite Imagery: Application of the GEOCLASS-Image System to Create VarioCNN for Glacier Surges U. Herzfeld et al. 10.3390/rs16111854
- Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions D. Chandler & P. Langebroek 10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
- Future Response of Antarctic Continental Shelf Temperatures to Ice Shelf Basal Melting and Calving M. Thomas et al. 10.1029/2022GL102101
- Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47369-3
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024
- Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies B. Davison et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-36990-3
- Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0) E. Lambert et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023
- Reduced Deep Convection and Bottom Water Formation Due To Antarctic Meltwater in a Multi‐Model Ensemble J. Chen et al. 10.1029/2023GL106492
- Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes S. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01695-4
- Improving Antarctic Bottom Water precursors in NEMO for climate applications K. Hutchinson et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023
- A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics L. Ackermann et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
- Ocean–Ice Sheet Coupling in the Totten Glacier Area, East Antarctica: Analysis of the Feedbacks and Their Response to a Sudden Ocean Warming G. Van Achter et al. 10.3390/geosciences13040106
- Seawater oxygen isotopes as a tool for monitoring future meltwater from the Antarctic ice-sheet H. Kim & A. Timmermann 10.1038/s43247-024-01514-4
- The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design N. Swart et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023
- Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario P. Mathiot & N. Jourdain 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
- Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica J. De Rydt & K. Naughten 10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model M. Hoffman et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2917-2024
- Recent increase in the surface mass balance in central East Antarctica is unprecedented for the last 2000 years A. Ekaykin et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01355-1
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
- Antarctic surface climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model version 2 during the satellite era and into the future (1979–2100) D. Dunmire et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022
- Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre F. Gómez‐Valdivia et al. 10.1029/2023GL102978
- Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model J. Park et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount P. Goddard et al. 10.1029/2023JD039434
- Combining “Deep Learning” and Physically Constrained Neural Networks to Derive Complex Glaciological Change Processes from Modern High-Resolution Satellite Imagery: Application of the GEOCLASS-Image System to Create VarioCNN for Glacier Surges U. Herzfeld et al. 10.3390/rs16111854
- Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions D. Chandler & P. Langebroek 10.5194/cp-20-2055-2024
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
- Future Response of Antarctic Continental Shelf Temperatures to Ice Shelf Basal Melting and Calving M. Thomas et al. 10.1029/2022GL102101
- Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47369-3
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024
- Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies B. Davison et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-36990-3
- Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0) E. Lambert et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023
- Reduced Deep Convection and Bottom Water Formation Due To Antarctic Meltwater in a Multi‐Model Ensemble J. Chen et al. 10.1029/2023GL106492
- Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes S. Zhou et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01695-4
- Improving Antarctic Bottom Water precursors in NEMO for climate applications K. Hutchinson et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023
- A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics L. Ackermann et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
- Ocean–Ice Sheet Coupling in the Totten Glacier Area, East Antarctica: Analysis of the Feedbacks and Their Response to a Sudden Ocean Warming G. Van Achter et al. 10.3390/geosciences13040106
- Seawater oxygen isotopes as a tool for monitoring future meltwater from the Antarctic ice-sheet H. Kim & A. Timmermann 10.1038/s43247-024-01514-4
- The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design N. Swart et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023
- Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario P. Mathiot & N. Jourdain 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
- Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica J. De Rydt & K. Naughten 10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model M. Hoffman et al. 10.5194/tc-18-2917-2024
- Recent increase in the surface mass balance in central East Antarctica is unprecedented for the last 2000 years A. Ekaykin et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01355-1
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Antarctic surface climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model version 2 during the satellite era and into the future (1979–2100) D. Dunmire et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022
- Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre F. Gómez‐Valdivia et al. 10.1029/2023GL102978
- Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model J. Park et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9
Latest update: 12 Nov 2024
Co-editor-in-chief
This study draws attention to some important processes for ice sheet mass loss. In particular, the warm-water incursions onto the large ice shelves in the late 21st century, inducing more melt, have big implications for the future contribution to SLR from Antarctica.
This study draws attention to some important processes for ice sheet mass loss. In particular,...
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean...
