Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet
Antony Siahaan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Robin S. Smith
NCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Paul R. Holland
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Adrian Jenkins
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
now at: Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
Jonathan M. Gregory
NCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Victoria Lee
CPOM, Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Pierre Mathiot
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
now at: Institut des Geosciences de l'Environnement, Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Antony J. Payne
CPOM, Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Jeff K. Ridley
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Colin G. Jones
NCAS, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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Cited
48 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al.
- Calculations of extreme sea level rise scenarios are strongly dependent on ice sheet model resolution C. Williams et al.
- Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene D. Lowry et al.
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al.
- Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0) E. Lambert et al.
- Reduced Deep Convection and Bottom Water Formation Due To Antarctic Meltwater in a Multi‐Model Ensemble J. Chen et al.
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al.
- Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes S. Zhou et al.
- Quantifying temperature-sliding inconsistency in thermomechanical coupling: a comparative analysis of geothermal heat flux datasets at Totten Glacier J. Wang et al.
- Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations S. Loriani et al.
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al.
- Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+) C. Yung et al.
- Ocean–Ice Sheet Coupling in the Totten Glacier Area, East Antarctica: Analysis of the Feedbacks and Their Response to a Sudden Ocean Warming G. Van Achter et al.
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- A new paradigm for understanding Earth’s marine ice sheets O. Sergienko et al.
- Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica J. De Rydt & K. Naughten
- Ocean stratification and tides control basal melting at the Ross Ice Shelf Grounding Zone C. Stevens et al.
- Coupling framework (1.0) for the Úa (2023b) ice sheet model and the FESOM-1.4 z-coordinate ocean model in an Antarctic domain O. Richter et al.
- Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss D. Chandler et al.
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al.
- Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount P. Goddard et al.
- Combining “Deep Learning” and Physically Constrained Neural Networks to Derive Complex Glaciological Change Processes from Modern High-Resolution Satellite Imagery: Application of the GEOCLASS-Image System to Create VarioCNN for Glacier Surges U. Herzfeld et al.
- The Eurasian and North American ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima: coupled atmosphere–ice sheet model sensitivity and calibration V. Patterson et al.
- Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions D. Chandler & P. Langebroek
- Future Response of Antarctic Continental Shelf Temperatures to Ice Shelf Basal Melting and Calving M. Thomas et al.
- Antarctic coastal polynyas in the global climate system N. Golledge et al.
- Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies B. Davison et al.
- Rare ice-base temperature measurements in Antarctica reveal a cold base in contrast with predictions P. Talalay et al.
- Inter-model diversity and Its Drivers in Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation S. Park et al.
- The response of the Southern ocean to Climatological iceberg freshwater forcing J. Zhang et al.
- Improving Antarctic Bottom Water precursors in NEMO for climate applications K. Hutchinson et al.
- Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario K. Haubner et al.
- A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics L. Ackermann et al.
- Evaluating an accelerated forcing approach for improving computational efficiency in coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling Q. Zhou et al.
- Seawater oxygen isotopes as a tool for monitoring future meltwater from the Antarctic ice-sheet H. Kim & A. Timmermann
- Antarctic meltwater alters future projections of climate and sea level S. Sadai et al.
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al.
- The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design N. Swart et al.
- Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario P. Mathiot & N. Jourdain
- Current reversal leads to regime change in the Amery Ice Shelf cavity in the 21st century J. Jin et al.
- Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection P. Song et al.
- Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations G. Schmidt et al.
- Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Prediction Using Spatial Attention Deep Learning H. Gu et al.
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al.
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al.
- Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model M. Hoffman et al.
- Recent increase in the surface mass balance in central East Antarctica is unprecedented for the last 2000 years A. Ekaykin et al.
- Sub-shelf melt pattern and ice sheet mass loss governed by meltwater flow below ice shelves F. Jesse et al.
48 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al.
- Calculations of extreme sea level rise scenarios are strongly dependent on ice sheet model resolution C. Williams et al.
- Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene D. Lowry et al.
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al.
- Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0) E. Lambert et al.
- Reduced Deep Convection and Bottom Water Formation Due To Antarctic Meltwater in a Multi‐Model Ensemble J. Chen et al.
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al.
- Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes S. Zhou et al.
- Quantifying temperature-sliding inconsistency in thermomechanical coupling: a comparative analysis of geothermal heat flux datasets at Totten Glacier J. Wang et al.
- Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations S. Loriani et al.
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al.
- Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+) C. Yung et al.
- Ocean–Ice Sheet Coupling in the Totten Glacier Area, East Antarctica: Analysis of the Feedbacks and Their Response to a Sudden Ocean Warming G. Van Achter et al.
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- A new paradigm for understanding Earth’s marine ice sheets O. Sergienko et al.
- Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica J. De Rydt & K. Naughten
- Ocean stratification and tides control basal melting at the Ross Ice Shelf Grounding Zone C. Stevens et al.
- Coupling framework (1.0) for the Úa (2023b) ice sheet model and the FESOM-1.4 z-coordinate ocean model in an Antarctic domain O. Richter et al.
- Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss D. Chandler et al.
- Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets E. Hanna et al.
- Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount P. Goddard et al.
- Combining “Deep Learning” and Physically Constrained Neural Networks to Derive Complex Glaciological Change Processes from Modern High-Resolution Satellite Imagery: Application of the GEOCLASS-Image System to Create VarioCNN for Glacier Surges U. Herzfeld et al.
- The Eurasian and North American ice sheets at the Last and Penultimate glacial maxima: coupled atmosphere–ice sheet model sensitivity and calibration V. Patterson et al.
- Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions D. Chandler & P. Langebroek
- Future Response of Antarctic Continental Shelf Temperatures to Ice Shelf Basal Melting and Calving M. Thomas et al.
- Antarctic coastal polynyas in the global climate system N. Golledge et al.
- Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies B. Davison et al.
- Rare ice-base temperature measurements in Antarctica reveal a cold base in contrast with predictions P. Talalay et al.
- Inter-model diversity and Its Drivers in Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation S. Park et al.
- The response of the Southern ocean to Climatological iceberg freshwater forcing J. Zhang et al.
- Improving Antarctic Bottom Water precursors in NEMO for climate applications K. Hutchinson et al.
- Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario K. Haubner et al.
- A comprehensive Earth system model (AWI-ESM2.1) with interactive icebergs: effects on surface and deep-ocean characteristics L. Ackermann et al.
- Evaluating an accelerated forcing approach for improving computational efficiency in coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling Q. Zhou et al.
- Seawater oxygen isotopes as a tool for monitoring future meltwater from the Antarctic ice-sheet H. Kim & A. Timmermann
- Antarctic meltwater alters future projections of climate and sea level S. Sadai et al.
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al.
- The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design N. Swart et al.
- Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario P. Mathiot & N. Jourdain
- Current reversal leads to regime change in the Amery Ice Shelf cavity in the 21st century J. Jin et al.
- Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection P. Song et al.
- Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations G. Schmidt et al.
- Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Prediction Using Spatial Attention Deep Learning H. Gu et al.
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al.
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al.
- Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model M. Hoffman et al.
- Recent increase in the surface mass balance in central East Antarctica is unprecedented for the last 2000 years A. Ekaykin et al.
- Sub-shelf melt pattern and ice sheet mass loss governed by meltwater flow below ice shelves F. Jesse et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 May 2026
Editorial statement
This study draws attention to some important processes for ice sheet mass loss. In particular, the warm-water incursions onto the large ice shelves in the late 21st century, inducing more melt, have big implications for the future contribution to SLR from Antarctica.
This study draws attention to some important processes for ice sheet mass loss. In particular,...
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean...