Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
Research article
19 Mar 2021
Research article | 19 Mar 2021

Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate

Jan Nitzbon et al.

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Cited articles

Aas, K. S., Martin, L., Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Boike, J., Lee, H., Berntsen, T. K., and Westermann, S.: Thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes represented with laterally coupled tiles in a land surface model, The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019. a, b
Abnizova, A., Siemens, J., Langer, M., and Boike, J.: Small ponds with major impact: The relevance of ponds and lakes in permafrost landscapes to carbon dioxide emissions, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 26, GB2041, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004237, 2012. a
Abolt, C. J., Young, M. H., Atchley, A. L., and Harp, D. R.: Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons, The Cryosphere, 12, 1957–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1957-2018, 2018. a, b
Abolt, C. J., Young, M. H., Atchley, A. L., Harp, D. R., and Coon, E. T.: Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 125, e2019JF005349, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005349, 2020. a, b
AMAP: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Oslo, Norway, oCLC: 1038467657, 2017. a
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.