Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 19 Mar 2021
| 19 Mar 2021
Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate
Permafrost Research, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Moritz Langer
Permafrost Research, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Léo C. P. Martin
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Thomas Schneider von Deimling
Permafrost Research, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Julia Boike
Permafrost Research, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Cited
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation of the Geomorphon Approach for Extracting Troughs in Polygonal Patterned Ground Across Different Permafrost Environments A. Wen et al. 10.3390/rs17061040
- Advances in Permafrost Representation: Biophysical Processes in Earth System Models and the Role of Offline Models H. Matthes et al. 10.1002/ppp.2269
- Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region A. Pongracz et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1
- Integrating local environmental observations and remote sensing to better understand the life cycle of a thermokarst lake in Arctic Alaska B. Jones et al. 10.1080/15230430.2023.2195518
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
- First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1029/2022GL102053
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- Vertical distribution of excess ice in icy sediments and its statistical estimation from geotechnical data (Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands and Anderson Plain, Northwest Territories) A. Castagner et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0041
- Explicitly modelling microtopography in permafrost landscapes in a land surface model (JULES vn5.4_microtopography) N. Smith et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022
- Permafrost thaw sensitivity prediction using surficial geology, topography, and remote-sensing imagery: a data-driven neural network approach G. Oldenborger et al. 10.1139/cjes-2021-0117
- The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere S. Westermann et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023
- Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System V. Brovkin et al. 10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9
- Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-50346-5
- Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw I. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51471-x
- Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833
- Heterogeneity in ice-wedge permafrost degradation revealed across spatial scales K. Braun & C. Andresen 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114299
- Formation of Low-Centered Ice-Wedge Polygons and Their Orthogonal Systems: A Review Y. Shur et al. 10.3390/geosciences15070249
- Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881
- Differentiation of cognate bacterial communities in thermokarst landscapes: implications for ecological consequences of permafrost degradation Z. Ren et al. 10.5194/bg-20-4241-2023
- Standardized monitoring of permafrost thaw: a user-friendly, multiparameter protocol J. Boike et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0007
- Change in global PFAS cycling as a response of permafrost degradation to climate change A. Mahmoudnia et al. 10.1016/j.hazadv.2021.100039
- Degradation of ice-wedge polygons leads to increased fluxes of water and DOC N. Speetjens et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170931
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023
- The evolution of Arctic permafrost over the last 3 centuries from ensemble simulations with the CryoGridLite permafrost model M. Langer et al. 10.5194/tc-18-363-2024
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation of the Geomorphon Approach for Extracting Troughs in Polygonal Patterned Ground Across Different Permafrost Environments A. Wen et al. 10.3390/rs17061040
- Advances in Permafrost Representation: Biophysical Processes in Earth System Models and the Role of Offline Models H. Matthes et al. 10.1002/ppp.2269
- Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region A. Pongracz et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1
- Integrating local environmental observations and remote sensing to better understand the life cycle of a thermokarst lake in Arctic Alaska B. Jones et al. 10.1080/15230430.2023.2195518
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
- First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1029/2022GL102053
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- Vertical distribution of excess ice in icy sediments and its statistical estimation from geotechnical data (Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands and Anderson Plain, Northwest Territories) A. Castagner et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0041
- Explicitly modelling microtopography in permafrost landscapes in a land surface model (JULES vn5.4_microtopography) N. Smith et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022
- Permafrost thaw sensitivity prediction using surficial geology, topography, and remote-sensing imagery: a data-driven neural network approach G. Oldenborger et al. 10.1139/cjes-2021-0117
- The CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) – a multi-physics toolbox for climate-driven simulations in the terrestrial cryosphere S. Westermann et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023
- Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System V. Brovkin et al. 10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9
- Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-50346-5
- Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw I. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51471-x
- Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833
- Heterogeneity in ice-wedge permafrost degradation revealed across spatial scales K. Braun & C. Andresen 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114299
- Formation of Low-Centered Ice-Wedge Polygons and Their Orthogonal Systems: A Review Y. Shur et al. 10.3390/geosciences15070249
- Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change R. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881
- Differentiation of cognate bacterial communities in thermokarst landscapes: implications for ecological consequences of permafrost degradation Z. Ren et al. 10.5194/bg-20-4241-2023
- Standardized monitoring of permafrost thaw: a user-friendly, multiparameter protocol J. Boike et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0007
- Change in global PFAS cycling as a response of permafrost degradation to climate change A. Mahmoudnia et al. 10.1016/j.hazadv.2021.100039
- Degradation of ice-wedge polygons leads to increased fluxes of water and DOC N. Speetjens et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170931
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023
- The evolution of Arctic permafrost over the last 3 centuries from ensemble simulations with the CryoGridLite permafrost model M. Langer et al. 10.5194/tc-18-363-2024
Latest update: 17 Sep 2025
Short summary
We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect...
