Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
Research article
16 Sep 2020
Research article | 16 Sep 2020

Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change

Eleanor J. Burke et al.

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Cited articles

Bader, D. C., Leung, R., Taylor, M., and McCoy, R. B.: E3SM-Project E3SM1.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4497, 2019. a
Biskaborn, B. K., Lanckman, J.-P., Lantuit, H., Elger, K., Streletskiy, D. A., Cable, W. L., and Romanovsky, V. E.: The new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-245-2015, 2015. a
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H., Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G., Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson, M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P., Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J.-P., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn, I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel, A. B. K., Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q., Yoshikawa, K., Zheleznyak, M., and Lantuit, H.: Permafrost is warming at a global scale, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11, 2019. a, b
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., and Foujols, M. A.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5195, 2018. a
Brown, J.: Circumpolar Active-Layer Monitoring (CALM) Program: Description and data., Circumpolar active-layer permafrost system, version 2.0., edited by: Parsons, M. and Zhang, T., International Permafrost Association Standing Committee on Data Information and Communication, available at: https://www2.gwu.edu/~calm/data/north.htm (last access: 2 September 2020), national Snow and Ice Data Center, 1998. a
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Short summary
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.