Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Sep 2020
Research article |
| 16 Sep 2020
| 16 Sep 2020
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
Eleanor J. Burke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Gerhard Krinner
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, CNRS, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
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Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
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Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
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Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
Julia Boike, Inge Juszak, Stephan Lange, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Pier Paul Overduin, Kurt Roth, Olaf Ippisch, Niko Bornemann, Lielle Stern, Isabelle Gouttevin, Ernst Hauber, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 355–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, 2018
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A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, and Altug Ekici
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017
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There is a large amount of relatively inert organic carbon locked into permafrost soils. In a warming climate the permafrost will thaw and this organic carbon will become vulnerable to decomposition. This process is not typically included within Earth system models (ESMs). This paper describes the development of a vertically resolved soil organic carbon decomposition model which, in the future, can be included within the UKESM to quantify the response of the climate to permafrost carbon loss.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
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We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
S. Miyazaki, K. Saito, J. Mori, T. Yamazaki, T. Ise, H. Arakida, T. Hajima, Y. Iijima, H. Machiya, T. Sueyoshi, H. Yabuki, E. J. Burke, M. Hosaka, K. Ichii, H. Ikawa, A. Ito, A. Kotani, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, T. Nitta, R. O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, T. Sasai, A. Sato, H. Sato, A. Sugimoto, R. Suzuki, K. Tanaka, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, 2015
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The paper provides an overall outlook and the Stage 1 experiment (site simulations) protocol of GTMIP, an open model intercomparison project for terrestrial Arctic, conducted as an activity of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). Models are driven by 34-year data created with the GRENE-TEA observations at four sites in Finland, Siberia and Alaska, and evaluated for physico-ecological key processes: energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budget.
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, and D. McNeall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
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This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, 2025
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JULES-INFERNO captures observed burned area across Greece fairly well for the present-day. Drastic future changes in burnt area in Eastern continental and southern Greece, especially under severe climate change scenarios. Static vegetation leads to larger burnt area compared to dynamic vegetation due to the lower concentration of flammable needleleaf trees.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
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Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
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This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Charles E. Miller, Peter C. Griffith, Elizabeth Hoy, Naiara S. Pinto, Yunling Lou, Scott Hensley, Bruce D. Chapman, Jennifer Baltzer, Kazem Bakian-Dogaheh, W. Robert Bolton, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Richard H. Chen, Byung-Hun Choe, Leah K. Clayton, Thomas A. Douglas, Nancy French, Jean E. Holloway, Gang Hong, Lingcao Huang, Go Iwahana, Liza Jenkins, John S. Kimball, Tatiana Loboda, Michelle Mack, Philip Marsh, Roger J. Michaelides, Mahta Moghaddam, Andrew Parsekian, Kevin Schaefer, Paul R. Siqueira, Debjani Singh, Alireza Tabatabaeenejad, Merritt Turetsky, Ridha Touzi, Elizabeth Wig, Cathy J. Wilson, Paul Wilson, Stan D. Wullschleger, Yonghong Yi, Howard A. Zebker, Yu Zhang, Yuhuan Zhao, and Scott J. Goetz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2605–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2605-2024, 2024
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NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) conducted airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) surveys of over 120 000 km2 in Alaska and northwestern Canada during 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. This paper summarizes those results and provides links to details on ~ 80 individual flight lines. This paper is presented as a guide to enable interested readers to fully explore the ABoVE L- and P-band SAR data.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Catherine Ottlé, and Frédérique Cheruy
The Cryosphere, 17, 5095–5130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, 2023
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This study investigates the impact of topography on snow cover parameterizations using models and observations. Parameterizations without topography-based considerations overestimate snow cover. Incorporating topography reduces snow overestimation by 5–10 % in mountains, in turn reducing cold biases. However, some biases remain, requiring further calibration and more data. Assessing snow cover parameterizations is challenging due to limited and uncertain data in mountainous regions.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
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This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Yao Gao, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Maarit Raivonen, Mika Aurela, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Elyn Humphreys, Annalea Lohila, Tingting Li, Tiina Markkanen, Olli Nevalainen, Mats B. Nilsson, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We coupled a process-based peatland CH4 emission model HIMMELI with a state-of-art land surface model JULES. The performance of the coupled model was evaluated at six northern wetland sites. The coupled model is considered to be more appropriate in simulating wetland CH4 emission. In order to improve the simulated CH4 emission, the model requires better representation of the peat soil carbon and hydrologic processes in JULES and the methane production and transportation processes in HIMMELI.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Kathrin Naegeli, and Stefan Wunderle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1061–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, 2021
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Climate change over High Mountain Asia is investigated with CMIP6 climate models. A general cold bias is found in this area, often related to a snow cover overestimation in the models. Ensemble experiments generally encompass the past observed trends, suggesting that even biased models can reproduce the trends. Depending on the future scenario, a warming from 1.9 to 6.5 °C, associated with a snow cover decrease and precipitation increase, is expected at the end of the 21st century.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, Antoinette Alias, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, 2021
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We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, and Mondher Chekki
The Cryosphere, 15, 571–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021
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We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Florentin Lemonnier, Alizée Chemison, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Chantal Claud, and Christophe Genthon
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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This study presents the first evaluation from snowfall observations in Antarctica of the general circulation model LMDz (global), the atmospheric component of the coupled IPSL Climate Model that is part of CMIP6 (IPCC). We also present an evaluation of the new version of the MAR model (regional), considered as a reference in terms of polar climate modelling. Both models show satisfying results for the modelling of precipitation in Antarctica.
Lawrence Mudryk, María Santolaria-Otín, Gerhard Krinner, Martin Ménégoz, Chris Derksen, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Mike Brady, and Richard Essery
The Cryosphere, 14, 2495–2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, 2020
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We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow cover extent and snow mass and how they project that these quantities will change up to the year 2100. Overall the updated models better represent historical snow extent than previous models, and they simulate stronger historical trends in snow extent and snow mass. They project that spring snow extent will decrease by 8 % for each degree Celsius that the global surface air temperature increases.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
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Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, and Antoinette Alias
The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019
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The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over 1981–2010, we forced the model with observed and modelled sea surface conditions (SSCs). For the late 21st century, we use original and bias-corrected sea surface conditions from RCP8.5 climate projections. We assess the impact of using direct or bias-corrected SSCs for the evolution of Antarctic climate and surface mass balance.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
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We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Robert G. Way, Antoni G. Lewkowicz, and Yu Zhang
The Cryosphere, 12, 2667–2688, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2667-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2667-2018, 2018
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Isolated patches of permafrost in southeast Labrador are among the southernmost lowland permafrost features in Canada. Local characteristics at six sites were investigated from Cartwright, NL (~ 54° N) to Blanc-Sablon, QC (~ 51° N). Annual ground temperatures varied from −0.7 °C to −2.3 °C with permafrost thicknesses of 1.7–12 m. Ground temperatures modelled for two sites showed permafrost disappearing at the southern site by 2060 and persistence beyond 2100 at the northern site only for RCP2.6.
Chloé Largeron, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, and Claire Brutel-Vuilmet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3279–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, 2018
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Peatlands are widely present in boreal regions and contain large carbon stocks due to their hydrologic properties and high water content. We have enhanced the global land surface model ORCHIDEE by introducing boreal peatlands. These are considered as a new type of vegetation in the model, with specific hydrological properties for peat soil. In this paper, we focus on the representation of the hydrology of northern peatlands and on the evaluation of the hydrological impact of this implementation.
Julia Boike, Inge Juszak, Stephan Lange, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Pier Paul Overduin, Kurt Roth, Olaf Ippisch, Niko Bornemann, Lielle Stern, Isabelle Gouttevin, Ernst Hauber, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 355–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, 2018
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A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
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Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Ye Huang, Chao Yue, Sarah Dantec-Nédélec, Catherine Ottlé, Albert Jornet-Puig, Ana Bastos, Pierre Laurent, Daniel Goll, Simon Bowring, Jinfeng Chang, Bertrand Guenet, Marwa Tifafi, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Agnès Ducharne, Fuxing Wang, Tao Wang, Xuhui Wang, Yilong Wang, Zun Yin, Ronny Lauerwald, Emilie Joetzjer, Chunjing Qiu, Hyungjun Kim, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 121–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, 2018
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Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, and Altug Ekici
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017
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There is a large amount of relatively inert organic carbon locked into permafrost soils. In a warming climate the permafrost will thaw and this organic carbon will become vulnerable to decomposition. This process is not typically included within Earth system models (ESMs). This paper describes the development of a vertically resolved soil organic carbon decomposition model which, in the future, can be included within the UKESM to quantify the response of the climate to permafrost carbon loss.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Sergey V. Samsonov, Trevor C. Lantz, Steven V. Kokelj, and Yu Zhang
The Cryosphere, 10, 799–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-799-2016, 2016
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We describe the growth of a very large diameter pingo in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands. Analysis of historical data showed that ground uplift initiated sometime between 1935 and 1951 following lake drainage and is largely caused by the growth of intrusive ice. This study demonstrates that satellite radar can successfully contribute to understanding the dynamics of terrain uplift in response to permafrost aggradation and ground ice development in remote polar environments.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
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We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
S. Miyazaki, K. Saito, J. Mori, T. Yamazaki, T. Ise, H. Arakida, T. Hajima, Y. Iijima, H. Machiya, T. Sueyoshi, H. Yabuki, E. J. Burke, M. Hosaka, K. Ichii, H. Ikawa, A. Ito, A. Kotani, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, T. Nitta, R. O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, T. Sasai, A. Sato, H. Sato, A. Sugimoto, R. Suzuki, K. Tanaka, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, 2015
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The paper provides an overall outlook and the Stage 1 experiment (site simulations) protocol of GTMIP, an open model intercomparison project for terrestrial Arctic, conducted as an activity of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). Models are driven by 34-year data created with the GRENE-TEA observations at four sites in Finland, Siberia and Alaska, and evaluated for physico-ecological key processes: energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budget.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
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We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
D. Zhu, S. S. Peng, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, A. Druel, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, D. Schepaschenko, and A. Shvidenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new parameterization of the vegetation dynamics module in the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE for mid- to high-latitude regions, showing significant improvements in the modeled distribution of tree functional types north of 40°N. A new set of metrics is proposed to quantify the performance of ORCHIDEE, which integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
K. A. Crichton, D. M. Roche, G. Krinner, and J. Chappellaz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3111-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3111-2014, 2014
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Permafrost is ground that remains frozen for two or more consecutive years. An estimated 50% of the global below-ground organic carbon is stored in soils of the permafrost zone. This study presents the development and validation of a simplified permafrost-carbon mechanism for the CLIMBER-2 model. Our model development allows, for the first time, the study of the role of permafrost soils in the global carbon cycle for long timescales and for coupled palaeoclimate Earth system modelling studies.
Y. Zhang, I. Olthof, R. Fraser, and S. A. Wolfe
The Cryosphere, 8, 2177–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2177-2014, 2014
Y. Zhang, W. Chen, and J. Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1357–1376, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1357-2014, 2014
I. Gouttevin, A. Bartsch, G. Krinner, and V. Naeimi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11241-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11241-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Y. Zhang, X. Wang, R. Fraser, I. Olthof, W. Chen, D. Mclennan, S. Ponomarenko, and W. Wu
The Cryosphere, 7, 1121–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1121-2013, 2013
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, and D. McNeall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013
V. Favier, C. Agosta, S. Parouty, G. Durand, G. Delaygue, H. Gallée, A.-S. Drouet, A. Trouvilliez, and G. Krinner
The Cryosphere, 7, 583–597, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-583-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-583-2013, 2013
M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, A. Cozic, O. Boucher, and P. Ciais
The Cryosphere, 7, 537–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
M.-N. Woillez, M. Kageyama, N. Combourieu-Nebout, and G. Krinner
Biogeosciences, 10, 1561–1582, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1561-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1561-2013, 2013
C. Brutel-Vuilmet, M. Ménégoz, and G. Krinner
The Cryosphere, 7, 67–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-67-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-67-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Frozen ground | Subject: Numerical Modelling
The thermal state of permafrost in under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2022: A case study of the West Kunlun
Modelling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting rates in frozen rock clefts
Coupled thermo–geophysical inversion for permafrost monitoring
Simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments with the CryoGrid community model
Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate
Simulating the current and future northern limit of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Evaluating simplifications of subsurface process representations for field-scale permafrost hydrology models
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change
Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway
A method for solving heat transfer with phase change in ice or soil that allows for large time steps while guaranteeing energy conservation
Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate
Pathways of ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra under different hydrological conditions
Thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes represented with laterally coupled tiles in a land surface model
Observation and modelling of snow at a polygonal tundra permafrost site: spatial variability and thermal implications
The physical properties of coarse-fragment soils and their effects on permafrost dynamics: a case study on the central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Jianting Zhao, Lin Zhao, Ze Sun, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Minxuan Xiao, Guangyue Liu, Qiangqiang Pang, Erji Du, Zhibin Li, Xiaodong Wu, Yao Xiao, Lingxiao Wang, and Wenxin Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3956, 2025
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The thermal regime is a key indicator of permafrost evolution. We quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the permafrost status in western Tibet since the 1980s, based on numerical simulations using the enhanced, model-forcing-driven Moving-Grid Permafrost Model. Our simulated results indicated that slow and lagged response of permafrost to climate warming, which closely linked to historical thermal conditions.
Amir Sedaghatkish, Frédéric Doumenc, Pierre-Yves Jeannin, and Marc Luetscher
The Cryosphere, 18, 4531–4546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate the natural convection of water within frozen rock crevices subject to daily warming in mountain permafrost regions. Traditional models relying on conduction and latent heat flux typically overlook free convection. The results reveal that free convection can significantly accelerate the melting rate by an order of magnitude compared to conduction-based models. Our results are important for assessing the impact of climate change on mountain infrastructure.
Soňa Tomaškovičová and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, 2024
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We present the results of a fully coupled modeling framework for simulating the ground thermal regime using only surface measurements to calibrate the thermal model. The heat conduction model is forced by surface ground temperature measurements and calibrated using the field measurements of time lapse apparent electrical resistivity. The resistivity-calibrated thermal model achieves a performance comparable to the traditional calibration of borehole temperature measurements.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
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The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Jianting Zhao, Lin Zhao, Zhe Sun, Fujun Niu, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Erji Du, Chong Wang, Lingxiao Wang, Yongping Qiao, Jianzong Shi, Yuxin Zhang, Junqiang Gao, Yuanwei Wang, Yan Li, Wenjun Yu, Huayun Zhou, Zanpin Xing, Minxuan Xiao, Luhui Yin, and Shengfeng Wang
The Cryosphere, 16, 4823–4846, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4823-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4823-2022, 2022
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Permafrost has been warming and thawing globally; this is especially true in boundary regions. We focus on the changes and variability in permafrost distribution and thermal dynamics in the northern limit of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) by applying a new permafrost model. Unlike previous papers on this topic, our findings highlight a slow, decaying process in the response of permafrost in the QTP to a warming climate, especially regarding areal extent.
Bo Gao and Ethan T. Coon
The Cryosphere, 16, 4141–4162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4141-2022, 2022
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Representing water at constant density, neglecting cryosuction, and neglecting heat advection are three commonly applied but not validated simplifications in permafrost models to reduce computation complexity at field scale. We investigated this problem numerically by Advanced Terrestrial Simulator and found that neglecting cryosuction can cause significant bias (10%–60%), constant density primarily affects predicting water saturation, and ignoring heat advection has the least impact.
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
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Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
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It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Niccolò Tubini, Stephan Gruber, and Riccardo Rigon
The Cryosphere, 15, 2541–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2541-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2541-2021, 2021
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We present a new method to compute temperature changes with melting and freezing – a fundamental challenge in cryosphere research – extremely efficiently and with guaranteed correctness of the energy balance for any time step size. This is a key feature since the integration time step can then be chosen according to the timescale of the processes to be studied, from seconds to days.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Westermann, Léo Martin, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, 2019
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We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
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Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Shuhua Yi, Yujie He, Xinlei Guo, Jianjun Chen, Qingbai Wu, Yu Qin, and Yongjian Ding
The Cryosphere, 12, 3067–3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3067-2018, 2018
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Coarse-fragment soil on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has different thermal and hydrological properties to soils commonly used in modeling studies. We took soil samples and measured their physical properties in a laboratory, which were used in a model to simulate their effects on permafrost dynamics. Model errors were reduced using the measured properties, in which porosity played an dominant role.
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Short summary
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the...
