Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Sep 2020
Research article |
| 16 Sep 2020
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
Eleanor J. Burke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Gerhard Krinner
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, CNRS, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
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Cited
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century D. Nielsen et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0
- Climatic assessment of circum-Arctic permafrost zonation over the last 122 kyr K. Saito et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100765
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al. 10.3390/rs13245059
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- The changing thermal state of permafrost S. Smith et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00240-1
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales T. Schneider von Deimling et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021
- Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost C. Ross et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0013
- Quantifying Overestimated Permafrost Extent Driven by Rock Glacier Inventory B. Cao et al. 10.1029/2021GL092476
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0024.1
- Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure A. Leung et al. 10.3390/forecast4010006
- Landscape‐scale variations in near‐surface soil temperature and active‐layer thickness: Implications for high‐resolution permafrost mapping Y. Zhang et al. 10.1002/ppp.2104
- Vegetation grows more luxuriantly in Arctic permafrost drained lake basins Y. Chen et al. 10.1111/gcb.15853
- Agreement of Analytical and Simulation‐Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models N. Steinert et al. 10.1029/2021GL094273
- Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure J. Hjort et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.014
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w
- Linkage between anomalies of pre-summer thawing of frozen soil over the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation in East Asia Y. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1c
- Damage characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway in permafrost regions based on UAV imagery M. Chai et al. 10.1080/10298436.2022.2038381
- Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble L. Mudryk et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century D. Nielsen et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0
- Climatic assessment of circum-Arctic permafrost zonation over the last 122 kyr K. Saito et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100765
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al. 10.3390/rs13245059
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- The changing thermal state of permafrost S. Smith et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00240-1
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales T. Schneider von Deimling et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021
- Initialization of thermal models in cold and warm permafrost C. Ross et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0013
- Quantifying Overestimated Permafrost Extent Driven by Rock Glacier Inventory B. Cao et al. 10.1029/2021GL092476
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0024.1
- Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure A. Leung et al. 10.3390/forecast4010006
- Landscape‐scale variations in near‐surface soil temperature and active‐layer thickness: Implications for high‐resolution permafrost mapping Y. Zhang et al. 10.1002/ppp.2104
- Vegetation grows more luxuriantly in Arctic permafrost drained lake basins Y. Chen et al. 10.1111/gcb.15853
- Agreement of Analytical and Simulation‐Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models N. Steinert et al. 10.1029/2021GL094273
- Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure J. Hjort et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.014
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w
- Linkage between anomalies of pre-summer thawing of frozen soil over the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation in East Asia Y. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1c
- Damage characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway in permafrost regions based on UAV imagery M. Chai et al. 10.1080/10298436.2022.2038381
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 26 Mar 2023
Short summary
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the...
