Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
Eleanor J. Burke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Gerhard Krinner
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, CNRS, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
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- Response of atmospheric pCO$$_2$$ to a strong AMOC weakening under low and high emission scenarios A. Boot et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07295-y
- Preconditioning of mountain permafrost towards degradation detected by electrical resistivity C. Hauck & C. Hilbich 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3c55
- A decline in atmospheric CO2 levels under negative emissions may enhance carbon retention in the terrestrial biosphere S. Park & J. Kug 10.1038/s43247-022-00621-4
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- An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century X. Li et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.014
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- Advances in modelling large river basins in cold regions with Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire—Surface and Hydrology (MESH), the Canadian hydrological land surface scheme H. Wheater et al. 10.1002/hyp.14557
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- Climatic assessment of circum-Arctic permafrost zonation over the last 122 kyr K. Saito et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100765
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al. 10.3390/rs13245059
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments A. Liu et al. 10.5194/esd-14-39-2023
- Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Area Projections for the 21st Century X. Peng et al. 10.1029/2023EF003573
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- Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure J. Hjort et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8
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- First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1029/2022GL102053
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- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response N. Steinert et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
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- Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model K. Dorheim et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024
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- Landscape‐scale variations in near‐surface soil temperature and active‐layer thickness: Implications for high‐resolution permafrost mapping Y. Zhang et al. 10.1002/ppp.2104
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- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
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- Global evaluation of the “dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter” paradigm from a terrestrial water storage change perspective J. Xiong et al. 10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022
- A newly integrated ground temperature dataset of permafrost along the China–Russia crude oil pipeline route in Northeast China G. Li et al. 10.5194/essd-14-5093-2022
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
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- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Response of atmospheric pCO$$_2$$ to a strong AMOC weakening under low and high emission scenarios A. Boot et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07295-y
- Preconditioning of mountain permafrost towards degradation detected by electrical resistivity C. Hauck & C. Hilbich 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3c55
- A decline in atmospheric CO2 levels under negative emissions may enhance carbon retention in the terrestrial biosphere S. Park & J. Kug 10.1038/s43247-022-00621-4
- Assessment of a hydrologic-land surface model to simulate thermo-hydrologic evolution of permafrost regions M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132161
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Dynamics of the freeze–thaw front of active layer on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau G. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2023.116353
- An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century X. Li et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.014
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- Damage characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway in permafrost regions based on UAV imagery M. Chai et al. 10.1080/10298436.2022.2038381
- Advances in modelling large river basins in cold regions with Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire—Surface and Hydrology (MESH), the Canadian hydrological land surface scheme H. Wheater et al. 10.1002/hyp.14557
- Effects of different soil thermal conductivity schemes on the simulation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau Y. Pan et al. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2024.116789
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
- Climatic assessment of circum-Arctic permafrost zonation over the last 122 kyr K. Saito et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100765
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al. 10.3390/rs13245059
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments A. Liu et al. 10.5194/esd-14-39-2023
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- Pervasive Permafrost Thaw Exacerbates Future Risk of Water Shortage Across the Tibetan Plateau T. Wang et al. 10.1029/2022EF003463
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- Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45
- Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure J. Hjort et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8
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- Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming R. Varney et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
- Earth system models must include permafrost carbon processes C. Schädel et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01909-9
- Spatiotemporal evolution of the maximum freezing depth of seasonally frozen ground and permafrost continuity in historical and future periods in Heilongjiang Province, China S. Xu et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106195
- First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1029/2022GL102053
- Future climate imposes pressure on vulnerable ecological regions in China X. Lian et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159995
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response N. Steinert et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Permafrost thawing caused by the China-Russia Crude oil pipeline based on multi-type data and its impacts on geomorphological reshaping and water erosion K. Gao et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2024.108134
- Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w
- Linkage between anomalies of pre-summer thawing of frozen soil over the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation in East Asia Y. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1c
- Contrasting characteristics, changes, and linkages of permafrost between the Arctic and the Third Pole X. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104042
- Validation of pan-Arctic soil temperatures in modern reanalysis and data assimilation systems T. Herrington et al. 10.5194/tc-18-1835-2024
- An effective medium theory-based unified model for estimating thermal conductivity of unfrozen and frozen soils H. Ji et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2024.107942
- Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions T. Wei et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6
- Evaluation of soil temperature in CMIP6 multimodel simulations J. Zhou et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110039
- Permafrost thaw drives surface water decline across lake-rich regions of the Arctic E. Webb et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01455-w
- A new 2010 permafrost distribution map over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on subregion survey maps: a benchmark for regional permafrost modeling Z. Cao et al. 10.5194/essd-15-3905-2023
- Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model K. Dorheim et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024
- Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales T. Schneider von Deimling et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021
- Organic carbon and mercury exports from pan-Arctic rivers in a thawing permafrost context – A review C. Fabre et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176713
- Elevation dependency of future degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau G. Zhang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ace0d1
- Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing F. Cuesta-Valero et al. 10.5194/esd-14-609-2023
- A prototype field-to-publication data system for a multi-variable permafrost observation network N. Brown et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106006
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage J. González-Rouco et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0024.1
- Landscape‐scale variations in near‐surface soil temperature and active‐layer thickness: Implications for high‐resolution permafrost mapping Y. Zhang et al. 10.1002/ppp.2104
- Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century G. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2022EF002652
- Continued Warming of the Permafrost Regions Over the Northern Hemisphere Under Future Climate Change G. Hu et al. 10.1029/2022EF002835
- Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is degrading: Historical and projected trends T. Shen et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130501
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6 Z. Xing et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.007
- Hydrologic‐land surface modelling of the Canadian sporadic‐discontinuous permafrost: Initialization and uncertainty propagation M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1002/hyp.14509
- Impacts of spatially inconsistent permafrost degradation on streamflow in the Lena River Basin Z. Xue et al. 10.1007/s11431-023-2757-2
- Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century D. Nielsen et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0
- Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021 R. Spencer & J. Christy 10.1007/s00704-023-04634-7
- The changing thermal state of permafrost S. Smith et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00240-1
- Landsat-Based Monitoring of Landscape Dynamics in Arctic Permafrost Region Y. Chen et al. 10.34133/2022/9765087
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Latest update: 06 Nov 2024
Short summary
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the...