Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 04 Apr 2019
Research article | 04 Apr 2019
Pathways of ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra under different hydrological conditions
Jan Nitzbon et al.
Related authors
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-338, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-338, 2020
Preprint under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in the Nature and help to understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Lei Cai, Erin Trochim, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-192, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Greg E. Bodeker, Jan Nitzbon, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Stefanie Kremser, Alexander Schwertheim, and Jared Lewis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-218, 2020
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone in Earth's atmosphere has undergone significant changes since first measured systematically from space in the late 1970s. The purpose of the paper is to present a new, spatially filled, global total column ozone climate data record spanning October 1978 to December 2016. The database is compiled from measurements from 17 different satellite-based instruments where offsets and drifts between the instruments have been corrected using ground-based measurements.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-137, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-338, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-338, 2020
Preprint under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in the Nature and help to understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 4611–4626, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) is developed as novel progress in modeling permafrost thaw and its impacts under the warming climate. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models.
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-340, 2020
Preprint under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents rock surface temperatures (RST) of steep high Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data shows that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RST than inland locations during winter season. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high Arctic rock walls.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Lydia Stolpmann, Caroline Coch, Anne Morgenstern, Julia Boike, Michael Fritz, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, Yury Dvornikov, Birgit Heim, Josefine Lenz, Amy Larsen, Katey Walter Anthony, Benjamin Jones, Karen Frey, and Guido Grosse
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-408, 2020
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Our new database summarizes DOC results of 2,167 water samples from 1,833 lakes in permafrost regions across the Arctic to provide insights for linkages between DOC and environment. We found increasing lake DOC concentration with decreasing permafrost extent and higher DOC concentrations in boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. Our study shows that DOC concentration depends on the environmental properties of a lake, especially on permafrost extent, ecoregion, and vegetation.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Lei Cai, Erin Trochim, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-192, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Greg E. Bodeker, Jan Nitzbon, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Stefanie Kremser, Alexander Schwertheim, and Jared Lewis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-218, 2020
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone in Earth's atmosphere has undergone significant changes since first measured systematically from space in the late 1970s. The purpose of the paper is to present a new, spatially filled, global total column ozone climate data record spanning October 1978 to December 2016. The database is compiled from measurements from 17 different satellite-based instruments where offsets and drifts between the instruments have been corrected using ground-based measurements.
Inge Grünberg, Evan J. Wilcox, Simon Zwieback, Philip Marsh, and Julia Boike
Biogeosciences, 17, 4261–4279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Based on topsoil temperature data for different vegetation types at a low Arctic tundra site, we found large small-scale variability. Winter temperatures were strongly influenced by vegetation through its effects on snow. Summer temperatures were similar below most vegetation types and not consistently related to late summer permafrost thaw depth. Given that vegetation type defines the relationship between winter and summer soil temperature and thaw depth, it controls permafrost vulnerability.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-137, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Jaroslav Obu, Sebastian Westermann, Gonçalo Vieira, Andrey Abramov, Megan Ruby Balks, Annett Bartsch, Filip Hrbáček, Andreas Kääb, and Miguel Ramos
The Cryosphere, 14, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Little is known about permafrost in the Antarctic outside of the few research stations. We used a simple equilibrium permafrost model to estimate permafrost temperatures in the whole Antarctic. The lowest permafrost temperature on Earth is −36 °C in the Queen Elizabeth Range in the Transantarctic Mountains. Temperatures are commonly between −23 and −18 °C in mountainous areas rising above the Antarctic Ice Sheet, between −14 and −8 °C in coastal areas, and up to 0 °C on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4717–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we address one of the big challenges in snow hydrology, namely the accurate simulation of the seasonal snowpack in ungauged regions. We do this by assimilating satellite observations of snow cover into a modelling framework. Importantly (and a novelty of the paper), we include a clustering approach that permits highly efficient ensemble simulations. Efficiency gains and dependency on purely global datasets, means that this method can be applied over large areas anywhere on Earth.
Florence Magnin, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, Paula Hilger, and Reginald L. Hermanns
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1019–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes the first permafrost (i.e. ground with temperature permanently < 0 °C) map covering the steep rock slopes of Norway. It was created by using rock temperature data collected at the near surface of 25 rock walls spread across the country between 2010 and 2018. The map shows that permafrost mostly exists above 1300–1400 m a.s.l. in southern Norway and close to sea level in northern Norway. The results have strong potential for the study of rock wall sliding and failure.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Sebastian Westermann, and Kjetil Schanke Aas
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) by adding three landunits to the original CLM sub-grid hierarchy, in order to prescribe three different excess ice conditions in one grid cell. Single-grid simulations verify the potential of the model development on better projecting excess ice melt in a warming climate. Global simulations recommend the proper way of applying the model development with the existing excess ice dataset.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
David Holl, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Peter Schreiber, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Lutz Beckebanze, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, Irina Fedorova, Dimitry Y. Bolshianov, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a multi-annual time series of land–atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes measured in situ with the eddy covariance technique in the Siberian Arctic. In arctic permafrost regions, climate–carbon feedbacks are amplified. Therefore, increased efforts to better represent these regions in global climate models have been made in recent years. Up to now, the available database of in situ measurements from the Arctic was biased towards Alaska and records from the Eurasian Arctic were scarce.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Julia Boike, Inge Juszak, Stephan Lange, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Pier Paul Overduin, Kurt Roth, Olaf Ippisch, Niko Bornemann, Lielle Stern, Isabelle Gouttevin, Ernst Hauber, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 355–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
Simon Zwieback, Steven V. Kokelj, Frank Günther, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 12, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse elevation losses at thaw slumps, at which icy sediments are exposed. As ice requires a large amount of energy to melt, one would expect that mass wasting is governed by the available energy. However, we observe very little mass wasting in June, despite the ample energy supply. Also, in summer, mass wasting is not always energy limited. This highlights the importance of other processes, such as the formation of a protective veneer, in shaping mass wasting at sub-seasonal scales.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Julia Boike, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 247–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate how snow cover data from satellites can be used to constrain estimates of snow distributions at sites in the Arctic. In this effort, we make use of data assimilation to combine the information contained in the snow cover data with a simple snow model. By comparing our snow distribution estimates to independent observations, we find that this method performs favorably. Being modular, this method could be applied to other areas as a component of a larger reanalysis system.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Toby J. Benham, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Mariusz Grabiec, Francisco Navarro, Rickard Pettersson, Geir Moholdt, Christopher Nuth, Björn Sass, Kjetil Aas, Xavier Fettweis, Charlotte Lang, Thorsten Seehaus, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 11, 2003–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2003-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
For the large majority of glaciers and ice caps, there is no information on the thickness of the ice cover. Any attempt to predict glacier demise under climatic warming and to estimate the future contribution to sea-level rise is limited as long as the glacier thickness is not well constrained. Here, we present a two-step mass-conservation approach for mapping ice thickness. Measurements are naturally reproduced. The reliability is readily assessible from a complementary map of error estimates.
Sabrina Marx, Katharina Anders, Sofia Antonova, Inga Beck, Julia Boike, Philip Marsh, Moritz Langer, and Bernhard Höfle
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate warming causes permafrost to warm and thaw, and, consequently, to release the carbon into the atmosphere. Terrestrial laser scanning is evaluated and current methods are extended in the context of monitoring subsidence in Arctic permafrost regions. The extracted information is important to gain a deeper understanding of permafrost-related subsidence processes and provides highly accurate ground-truth data which is necessary for further developing area-wide monitoring methods.
Sebastian Westermann, Maria Peter, Moritz Langer, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate a remote-sensing-based scheme estimating the evolution of ground temperature and active layer thickness by means of a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ observations from the Lena River delta in Siberia indicates that the model is generally capable of reproducing the annual temperature regime and seasonal thawing of the ground. The approach could hence be a first step towards remote detection of ground thermal conditions in permafrost areas.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Amund F. Borge, Sebastian Westermann, Ingvild Solheim, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 11, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Palsas and peat plateaus are permafrost landforms in subarctic mires which constitute sensitive ecosystems with strong significance for vegetation, wildlife, hydrology and carbon cycle. We have systematically mapped the occurrence of palsas and peat plateaus in northern Norway by interpretation of aerial images from the 1950s until today. The results show that about half of the area of palsas and peat plateaus has disappeared due to lateral erosion and melting of ground ice in the last 50 years.
Kjersti Gisnås, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Kjetil Melvold, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 10, 1201–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In wind exposed areas snow redistribution results in large spatial variability in ground temperatures. In these areas, the ground temperature of a grid cell must be determined based on the distribution, and not the average, of snow depths. We employ distribution functions of snow in a regional permafrost model, showing highly improved representation of ground temperatures. By including snow distributions, we find the permafrost area to be nearly twice as large as what is modelled without.
Kjetil S. Aas, Thorben Dunse, Emily Collier, Thomas V. Schuler, Terje K. Berntsen, Jack Kohler, and Bartłomiej Luks
The Cryosphere, 10, 1089–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1089-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1089-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere--climatic mass balance (CMB) model is applied to Svalbard for the period 2003 to 2013. The mean CMB during this period is negative but displays large spatial and temporal variations. Comparison with observations on different scales shows a good overall model performance except for one particular glacier, where wind strongly affects the spatial patterns of CMB. The model also shows considerable sensitivity to model resolution, especially on local scales.
Fabian Beermann, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Wetterich, Jens Strauss, Julia Boike, Claudia Fiencke, Lutz Schirrmeister, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims to quantify pools of inorganic nitrogen in permafrost soils of arctic Siberia and to estimate annual release rates of this nitrogen due to permafrost thaw. We report for the first time stores of inorganic nitrogen in Siberian permafrost soils. These nitrogen stores are important as permafrost thaw can mobilize substantial amounts of nitrogen, potentially changing the nutrient balance of these soils and representing a significant non-carbon permafrost climate feedback.
S. Westermann, M. Langer, J. Boike, M. Heikenfeld, M. Peter, B. Etzelmüller, and G. Krinner
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 523–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing of permafrost is governed by a complex interplay of different processes, of which only conductive heat transfer is taken into account in most model studies. We present a new land-surface scheme designed for permafrost applications, CryoGrid 3, which constitutes a flexible platform to explore new parameterizations for a range of permafrost processes.
J. Boike, C. Georgi, G. Kirilin, S. Muster, K. Abramova, I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, M. Grigoriev, N. Bornemann, and M. Langer
Biogeosciences, 12, 5941–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We show that lakes in northern Siberia are very efficient with respect to energy absorption and mixing using measurements as well as numerical modeling. We show that (i) the lakes receive substantial energy for warming from net short-wave radiation; (ii) convective mixing occurs beneath the ice cover, follow beneath the ice cover, following ice break-up, summer, and fall (iii) modeling suggests that the annual mean net heat flux across the bottom sediment boundary is approximately zero.
I. Beck, R. Ludwig, M. Bernier, T. Strozzi, and J. Boike
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 409–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, 2015
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
S. Westermann, T. I. Østby, K. Gisnås, T. V. Schuler, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 9, 1303–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We use remotely sensed land surface temperature and land cover in conjunction with air temperature and snowfall from a reanalysis product as input for a simple permafrost model. The scheme is applied to the permafrost regions bordering the North Atlantic. A comparison with ground temperatures in boreholes suggests a modeling accuracy of 2 to 2.5 °C.
T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Grosse, J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, A. Morgenstern, S. Schaphoff, M. Meinshausen, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We have modelled the carbon release from thawing permafrost soils under various scenarios of future warming. Our results suggests that up to about 140Pg of carbon could be released under strong warming by end of the century. We have shown that abrupt thaw processes under thermokarst lakes can unlock large amounts of perennially frozen carbon stored in deep deposits (which extend many metres into the soil).
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
S. Westermann, B. Elberling, S. Højlund Pedersen, M. Stendel, B. U. Hansen, and G. E. Liston
The Cryosphere, 9, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is influenced by many factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. We present numerical simulations of ground temperatures for the Zackenberg valley in NE Greenland, which take into account the spatial variability of snow depths, surface and ground properties at a scale of 10m. The ensemble of the model grid cells suggests a spatial variability of annual average ground temperatures of up to 5°C.
M. Langer, S. Westermann, K. Walter Anthony, K. Wischnewski, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Methane production rates of Arctic ponds during the freezing period within a typical tundra landscape in northern Siberia are presented. Production rates were inferred by inverse modeling based on measured methane concentrations in the ice cover. Results revealed marked differences in early winter methane production among ponds showing different stages of shore degradation. This suggests that shore erosion can increase methane production of Arctic ponds by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude.
I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, D. Bolshiyanov, A. Makarov, J. Boike, B. Heim, A. Morgenstern, P. P. Overduin, C. Wegner, V. Kashina, A. Eulenburg, E. Dobrotina, and I. Sidorina
Biogeosciences, 12, 345–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, 2015
J. Lüers, S. Westermann, K. Piel, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 11, 6307–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, 2014
K. Gisnås, S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, T. Litherland, K. Isaksen, J. Boike, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 8, 2063–2074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, 2014
S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1671–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, 2014
S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, K. Gisnås, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 7, 719–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Frozen ground | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate
Thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes represented with laterally coupled tiles in a land surface model
Observation and modelling of snow at a polygonal tundra permafrost site: spatial variability and thermal implications
The physical properties of coarse-fragment soils and their effects on permafrost dynamics: a case study on the central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Eleanor J. Burke, Yu Zhang, and Gerhard Krinner
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-137, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Shuhua Yi, Yujie He, Xinlei Guo, Jianjun Chen, Qingbai Wu, Yu Qin, and Yongjian Ding
The Cryosphere, 12, 3067–3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3067-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Coarse-fragment soil on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has different thermal and hydrological properties to soils commonly used in modeling studies. We took soil samples and measured their physical properties in a laboratory, which were used in a model to simulate their effects on permafrost dynamics. Model errors were reduced using the measured properties, in which porosity played an dominant role.
Cited articles
Aas, K. S., Gisnås, K., Westermann, S., and Berntsen, T. K.: A Tiling
Approach to Represent Subgrid Snow Variability in Coupled Land
Surface–Atmosphere Models, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 49–63,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0026.1, 2017. a
Aas, K. S., Martin, L., Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Boike, J., Lee, H.,
Berntsen, T. K., and Westermann, S.: Thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost
landscapes represented with laterally coupled tiles in a land surface model,
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Abolt, C. J., Young, M. H., and Caldwell, T. G.: Numerical Modelling of
Ice-Wedge Polygon Geomorphic Transition, Permafrost Periglac., 28,
347–355, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1909, 2017. a, b
Abolt, C. J., Young, M. H., Atchley, A. L., and Harp, D. R.: Microtopographic
control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons, The Cryosphere,
12, 1957–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1957-2018, 2018. a, b, c
AMAP: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) – 2017, Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Oslo, Norway, oCLC: 1038467657, 2017. a
Avissar, R. and Pielke, R. A.: A Parameterization of Heterogeneous Land
Surfaces for Atmospheric Numerical Models and Its Impact on
Regional Meteorology, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 2113–2136,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<2113:APOHLS>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Bisht, G., Riley, W. J., Wainwright, H. M., Dafflon, B., Yuan, F., and
Romanovsky, V. E.: Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and
lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic
polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0, Geosci. Model
Dev., 11, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Boike, J., Wille, C., and Abnizova, A.: Climatology and summer energy and
water balance of polygonal tundra in the Lena River Delta, Siberia,
J. Geophys. Res., 113, G03025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000540, 2008. a, b
Boike, J., Kattenstroth, B., Abramova, K., Bornemann, N., Chetverova, A.,
Fedorova, I., Fröb, K., Grigoriev, M., Grüber, M., Kutzbach, L.,
Langer, M., Minke, M., Muster, S., Piel, K., Pfeiffer, E.-M., Stoof, G.,
Westermann, S., Wischnewski, K., Wille, C., and Hubberten, H.-W.: Baseline
characteristics of climate, permafrost and land cover from a new permafrost
observatory in the Lena River Delta, Siberia (1998–2011), Biogeosciences,
10, 2105–2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2105-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Boike, J., Nitzbon, J., Anders, K., Grigoriev, M. N., Bolshiyanov, D. Y.,
Langer, M., Lange, S., Bornemann, N., Morgenstern, A., Schreiber, P., Wille,
C., Chadburn, S., Gouttevin, I., and Kutzbach, L.: Measurements in soil and
air at Samoylov Station (2002–2018), PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.891142,
2018. a
Boike, J., Nitzbon, J., Anders, K., Grigoriev, M., Bolshiyanov, D., Langer,
M., Lange, S., Bornemann, N., Morgenstern, A., Schreiber, P., Wille, C.,
Chadburn, S., Gouttevin, I., Burke, E., and Kutzbach, L.: A 16-year record
(2002–2017) of permafrost, active-layer, and meteorological conditions at
the Samoylov Island Arctic permafrost research site, Lena River delta,
northern Siberia: an opportunity to validate remote-sensing data and land
surface, snow, and permafrost models, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v
Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Essery, R. L. H., Boike, J., Langer, M.,
Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P. M., and Friedlingstein, P.: Impact of model
developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global
land-surface model, The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015. a
Coulthard, T. J.: Landscape evolution models: a software review, Hydrol.
Proc., 15, 165–173, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.426, 2001. a
Cresto Aleina, F., Brovkin, V., Muster, S., Boike, J., Kutzbach, L., Sachs,
T., and Zuyev, S.: A stochastic model for the polygonal tundra based on
Poisson–Voronoi diagrams, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 187–198,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-187-2013, 2013. a, b
Elberling, B., Michelsen, A., Schädel, C., Schuur, E. A. G.,
Christiansen, H. H., Berg, L., Tamstorf, M. P., and Sigsgaard, C.: Long-term
CO2 production following permafrost thaw, Nat. Clim. Change, 3,
890–894, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1955, 2013. a
Fraser, R., Kokelj, S., Lantz, T., McFarlane-Winchester, M., Olthof, I.,
Lacelle, D., Fraser, R. H., Kokelj, S. V., Lantz, T. C.,
McFarlane-Winchester, M., Olthof, I., and Lacelle, D.: Climate Sensitivity
of High Arctic Permafrost Terrain Demonstrated by Widespread
Ice-Wedge Thermokarst on Banks Island, Remote Sensing, 10, 954,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10060954, 2018. a
Gouttevin, I., Langer, M., Löwe, H., Boike, J., Proksch, M., and
Schneebeli, M.: Observation and modelling of snow at a polygonal tundra
permafrost site: spatial variability and thermal implications, The
Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018. a
Grant, R. F., Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Arora, B., and Torn, M. S.:
Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys: 2.
Microtopography Determines How CO2 and CH4 Exchange Responds
to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 122,
3174–3187, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004037, 2017a. a, b, c, d
Grant, R. F., Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Wainwright, H. M., Graham, D.,
and Torn, M. S.: Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra
with Ecosys: 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 122,
3161–3173, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004035, 2017b. a, b, c
Göckede, M., Kittler, F., Kwon, M. J., Burjack, I., Heimann, M., Kolle,
O., Zimov, N., and Zimov, S.: Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios,
and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost
ecosystem structure, The Cryosphere, 11, 2975–2996,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2975-2017, 2017. a
Helbig, M., Boike, J., Langer, M., Schreiber, P., Runkle, B. R. K., and
Kutzbach, L.: Spatial and seasonal variability of polygonal tundra water
balance: Lena River Delta, northern Siberia (Russia),
Hydrogeol. J., 21, 133–147, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-012-0933-4, 2013. a
Jan, A., Coon, E. T., Painter, S. L., Garimella, R., and Moulton, J. D.: An
intermediate-scale model for thermal hydrology in low-relief
permafrost-affected landscapes, Computat. Geosci., 22, 163–177,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-017-9679-3, 2018. a
Jorgenson, M. T., Shur, Y. L., and Pullman, E. R.: Abrupt increase in
permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02503,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024960, 2006. a
Jorgenson, M. T., Kanevskiy, M., Shur, Y., Moskalenko, N., Brown, D. R. N.,
Wickland, K., Striegl, R., and Koch, J.: Role of ground ice dynamics and
ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization, J.
Geophys. Res.-Earth, 120, 2280–2297, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003602, 2015. a, b, c, d, e
Kanevskiy, M., Shur, Y., Jorgenson, T., Brown, D. R., Moskalenko, N., Brown,
J., Walker, D. A., Raynolds, M. K., and Buchhorn, M.: Degradation and
stabilization of ice wedges: Implications for assessing risk of thermokarst
in northern Alaska, Geomorphology, 297, 20–42,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.09.001, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Knoblauch, C., Beer, C., Liebner, S., Grigoriev, M. N., and Pfeiffer, E.-M.:
Methane production as key to the greenhouse gas budget of thawing permafrost,
Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 309–312, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0095-z, 2018. a
Kokelj, S. V. and Jorgenson, M. T.: Advances in Thermokarst Research,
Permafrost Periglac., 24, 108–119, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1779, 2013. a, b
Kokelj, S. V., Lantz, T. C., Wolfe, S. A., Kanigan, J. C., Morse, P. D.,
Coutts, R., Molina-Giraldo, N., and Burn, C. R.: Distribution and activity of
ice wedges across the forest-tundra transition, western Arctic Canada, J.
Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 2032–2047, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JF003085, 2014. a
Koster, R. D. and Suarez, M. J.: Modeling the land surface boundary in
climate models as a composite of independent vegetation stands, J. Geophys.
Res., 97, 2697–2715, https://doi.org/10.1029/91JD01696, 1992. a
Kumar, J., Collier, N., Bisht, G., Mills, R. T., Thornton, P. E., Iversen, C.
M., and Romanovsky, V.: Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface
thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape, The
Cryosphere, 10, 2241–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2241-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d
Langer, M., Westermann, S., Muster, S., Piel, K., and Boike, J.: The surface
energy balance of a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia – Part 2:
Winter, The Cryosphere, 5, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-509-2011, 2011a. a
Langer, M., Westermann, S., Boike, J., Kirillin, G., Grosse, G., Peng, S.,
and Krinner, G.: Rapid degradation of permafrost underneath waterbodies in
tundra landscapes – Toward a representation of thermokarst in land surface
models, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 2446–2470, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JF003956,
2016. a, b, c, d
Lara, M. J., McGuire, A. D., Euskirchen, E. S., Tweedie, C. E., Hinkel,
K. M., Skurikhin, A. N., Romanovsky, V. E., Grosse, G., Bolton, W. R., and
Genet, H.: Polygonal tundra geomorphological change in response to warming
alters future CO2 and CH4 flux on the Barrow Peninsula,
Glob. Change Biol., 21, 1634–1651, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12757, 2015. a, b
Lee, H., Swenson, S. C., Slater, A. G., and Lawrence, D. M.: Effects of
excess ground ice on projections of permafrost in a warming climate, Environ.
Res. Lett., 9, 124006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124006, 2014. a, b
Liljedahl, A. K., Boike, J., Daanen, R. P., Fedorov, A. N., Frost, G. V.,
Grosse, G., Hinzman, L. D., Iijma, Y., Jorgenson, J. C., Matveyeva, N.,
Necsoiu, M., Raynolds, M. K., Romanovsky, V. E., Schulla, J., Tape, K. D.,
Walker, D. A., Wilson, C. J., Yabuki, H., and Zona, D.: Pan-Arctic
ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra
hydrology, Nat. Geosci., 9, 312–318, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2674, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m
MacKay, J. R.: Thermally induced movements in ice-wedge polygons, western
arctic coast: a long-term study, Geogr. Phys. Quatern., 54, 41–68,
https://doi.org/10.7202/004846ar, 2000. a
Muster, S., Langer, M., Heim, B., Westermann, S., and Boike, J.: Subpixel
heterogeneity of ice-wedge polygonal tundra: a multi-scale analysis of land
cover and evapotranspiration in the Lena River Delta, Siberia,
Tellus B, 64, 17301, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v64i0.17301, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Westermann, S., and Martin, L.: CryoGrid/CryoGrid3:
CryoGrid 3 set-up for ice-wedge polygons, Zenodo,
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2601973, 2019a. a, b
Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Westermann, S., Martin, L., Aas, K. S., and Boike,
J.: Simulation of ice-wedge degradation under intermediate hydrological
conditions, Copernicus Publications, https://doi.org/10.5446/39651, 2019b. a
Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Westermann, S., Martin, L., Aas, K. S., and Boike,
J.: Simulation of ice-wedge degradation under draining hydrological
conditions, Copernicus Publications, https://doi.org/10.5446/39652, 2019c. a
Niu, G.-Y., Yang, Z.-L., Mitchell, K. E., Chen, F., Ek, M. B., Barlage, M.,
Kumar, A., Manning, K., Niyogi, D., Rosero, E., Tewari, M., and Xia, Y.: The
community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options
(Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale
measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015139,
2011. a
Olefeldt, D., Goswami, S., Grosse, G., Hayes, D., Hugelius, G., Kuhry, P.,
McGuire, A. D., Romanovsky, V. E., Sannel, A. B. K., Schuur, E. A. G., and
Turetsky, M. R.: Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst
landscapes, Nat. Commun., 7, 13043, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13043, 2016. a, b
Painter, S. L., Moulton, J. D., and Wilson, C. J.: Modeling challenges for
predicting hydrologic response to degrading permafrost, Hydrogeol. J., 21,
221–224, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-012-0917-4, 2013. a
Painter, S. L., Coon, E. T., Atchley, A. L., Berndt, M., Garimella, R.,
Moulton, J. D., Svyatskiy, D., and Wilson, C. J.: Integrated
surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and
proof-of-concept simulations, Water Resour. Res., 52, 6062–6077,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018427, 2016. a
Rowland, J. C. and Coon, E. T.: From documentation to prediction: raising the
bar for thermokarst research, Hydrogeol. J., 24, 645–648,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-015-1331-5, 2015. a
Rowland, J. C., Jones, C. E., Altmann, G., Bryan, R., Crosby, B. T., Hinzman,
L. D., Kane, D. L., Lawrence, D. M., Mancino, A., Marsh, P., McNamara, J. P.,
Romanvosky, V. E., Toniolo, H., Travis, B. J., Trochim, E., Wilson, C. J.,
and Geernaert, G. L.: Arctic Landscapes in Transition: Responses to
Thawing Permafrost, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 91, 229–230,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010EO260001, 2010.
a
Schaphoff, S., Heyder, U., Ostberg, S., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., and Lucht,
W.: Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget, Environ.
Res. Lett., 8, 014026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014026, 2013. a
Westermann, S., Schuler, T. V., Gisnås, K., and Etzelmüller, B.:
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway, The
Cryosphere, 7, 719–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, 2013. a
Westermann, S., Langer, M., Boike, J., Heikenfeld, M., Peter, M.,
Etzelmüller, B., and Krinner, G.: Simulating the thermal regime and thaw
processes of ice-rich permafrost ground with the land-surface model
CryoGrid 3, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 523–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016,
2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Westermann, S., Peter, M., Langer, M., Schwamborn, G., Schirrmeister, L.,
Etzelmüller, B., and Boike, J.: Transient modeling of the ground thermal
conditions using satellite data in the Lena River delta, Siberia, The
Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017. a
Wolter, J., Lantuit, H., Fritz, M., Macias-Fauria, M., Myers-Smith, I., and
Herzschuh, U.: Vegetation composition and shrub extent on the Yukon coast,
Canada, are strongly linked to ice-wedge polygon degradation, Polar Res.,
35, 27489, https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v35.27489, 2016. a
Zhang, Y., Carey, S. K., Quinton, W. L., Janowicz, J. R., Pomeroy, J. W., and
Flerchinger, G. N.: Comparison of algorithms and parameterisations for
infiltration into organic-covered permafrost soils, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
14, 729–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-729-2010, 2010. a
Zubrzycki, S., Kutzbach, L., Grosse, G., Desyatkin, A., and Pfeiffer, E.-M.:
Organic carbon and total nitrogen stocks in soils of the Lena River Delta,
Biogeosciences, 10, 3507–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3507-2013, 2013. a
Short summary
We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent...
