Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
Research article
 | 
13 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2024

Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach

Thibault Xavier, Laurent Orgogozo, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky

Related authors

Quantifying the impact of Light Absorbing Impurities on snow properties and melting using mini-lysimeters in the Central Pyrenees
Javier Bandrés, Jorge Pey, Esteban Alonso-González, Pablo Domínguez-Aguilar, Jesús Revuelto, Eñaut Izagirre, Francisco Rojas-Heredia, Eric Allan Sproles, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4306,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4306, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
The TRISHNA Mission: A New Era of High-Resolution Thermal Infrared Earth Observation for Land Surface Monitoring
Philippe Gamet, Bimal K. Bhattacharya, Jean-Louis Roujean, Gilles Boulet, Corinne Salcedo, Albert Olioso, Kanishka Mallick, Marie Weiss, Emmanuelle Sarrazin, Emmanuelle Autret, Laure Roupioz, José Antonio Sobrino, Olivier Merlin, Ghislain Picard, Thomas H. G. Vidal, Mark Irvine, Rahul Nigam, Mehul Pandya, Simon Gascoin, Sébastien Marcq, Manoj K. Mishra, Emilie Delogu, Vincent Rivalland, Jordi Etchanchu, Jean-Louis Raynaud, Meenakshi Sarkar, Rishi K. Gangwar, Sushil K. Singh, Renaud Binet, Sara Arioli, Hervé Yésou, Isabelle Dadou, Alexei Kouraev, Julien Michel, Benoit Coudert, Samuel Mwangi, Nesrine Farhani, Ayan Das, Stéphane Saux-Picart, Thierry Tormos, Jean-François Piollé, Charles Verpoorter, Auline Rodler, Jonathan Leon Tavares, Jennifer Adams, Anand S. Sahadevan, Besavaraju Santhi Sree, Manikumar Vedantam, Dheeraj Adlakha, Laurence Buffet, Kathrin Naegeli, Itziar Barat, Jerome Demarty, Olivier Hagolle, and Philippe Maisongrande
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4492,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4492, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth Observation (EO).
Short summary
Snowmelt timing constrains green-up but not peak productivity in alpine grasslands of the western Pyrenees
Pablo Domínguez-Aguilar, Jesús Revuelto, Simon Gascoin, and Juan I. López-Moreno
Biogeosciences, 23, 3793–3806, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3793-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3793-2026, 2026
Short summary
Evolving beyond collapse: An adaptive particle batch smoother for cryospheric data assimilation
Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Norbert Pirk, Sebastian Westermann, Clarissa Willmes, and Ruitang Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.20049,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.20049, 2026
Short summary
Assessing VIIRS constellation seasonal snow cover over the French mountains with Sentinel-2
Nicola Imperatore, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, Adrien Mauss, Stéphane Guével, and Jean-Baptiste Hernandez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1122,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1122, 2026
Short summary

Cited articles

Alonso-González, E., Aalstad, K., Baba, M. W., Revuelto, J., López-Moreno, J. I., Fiddes, J., Essery, R., and Gascoin, S.: The Multiple Snow Data Assimilation System (MuSA v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022. 
Anisimov, O. A., Zhiltcova, Y. L., and Razzhivin, V. Y.: Predictive modeling of plant productivity in the Russian Arctic using satellite data, Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phy.+, 51, 1051–1059, https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815090042, 2015. 
Arndal, M. F. and Topp-Jørgensen, E. (Eds.): INTERACT Station Catalogue – 2020, DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy, Aarhus University, Denmark, 190 pp., ISBN 978-87-93129-15-3, https://www.eu-interact.org (last access: 11 April 2024), 2020. 
Auda, Y., Lundin, E. J., Gustafsson, J., Pokrovsky, O. S., Cazaurang, S., and Orgogozo, L.: A new land cover map of two watersheds under long-term environmental monitoring in the Swedish Arctic using Sentinel-2 data, Water, 15, 3311, https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183311, 2023. 
Bartsch, A., Pointner, G., Nitze, I., Efimova, A., Jakober, D., Ley, S., Högström, E., Grosse, G., and Schweitzer, P.: Expanding infrastructure and growing anthropogenic impacts along Arctic coasts, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 115013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3176, 2021. 
Download
Short summary
Permafrost (permanently frozen soil at depth) is thawing as a result of climate change. However, estimating its future degradation is particularly challenging due to the complex multi-physical processes involved. In this work, we designed and ran numerical simulations for months on a supercomputer to quantify the impact of climate change in a forested valley of central Siberia. There, climate change could increase the thickness of the seasonally thawed soil layer in summer by up to 65 % by 2100.
Share