Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
Research article
 | 
13 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2024

Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach

Thibault Xavier, Laurent Orgogozo, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky

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Cited articles

Alonso-González, E., Aalstad, K., Baba, M. W., Revuelto, J., López-Moreno, J. I., Fiddes, J., Essery, R., and Gascoin, S.: The Multiple Snow Data Assimilation System (MuSA v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022. 
Anisimov, O. A., Zhiltcova, Y. L., and Razzhivin, V. Y.: Predictive modeling of plant productivity in the Russian Arctic using satellite data, Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phy.+, 51, 1051–1059, https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815090042, 2015. 
Arndal, M. F. and Topp-Jørgensen, E. (Eds.): INTERACT Station Catalogue – 2020, DCE – Danish Centre for Environment and Energy, Aarhus University, Denmark, 190 pp., ISBN 978-87-93129-15-3, https://www.eu-interact.org (last access: 11 April 2024), 2020. 
Auda, Y., Lundin, E. J., Gustafsson, J., Pokrovsky, O. S., Cazaurang, S., and Orgogozo, L.: A new land cover map of two watersheds under long-term environmental monitoring in the Swedish Arctic using Sentinel-2 data, Water, 15, 3311, https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183311, 2023. 
Bartsch, A., Pointner, G., Nitze, I., Efimova, A., Jakober, D., Ley, S., Högström, E., Grosse, G., and Schweitzer, P.: Expanding infrastructure and growing anthropogenic impacts along Arctic coasts, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 115013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3176, 2021. 
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Short summary
Permafrost (permanently frozen soil at depth) is thawing as a result of climate change. However, estimating its future degradation is particularly challenging due to the complex multi-physical processes involved. In this work, we designed and ran numerical simulations for months on a supercomputer to quantify the impact of climate change in a forested valley of central Siberia. There, climate change could increase the thickness of the seasonally thawed soil layer in summer by up to 65 % by 2100.