Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
Research article
 | 
13 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2024

Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach

Thibault Xavier, Laurent Orgogozo, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky

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Cited articles

Alonso-González, E., Aalstad, K., Baba, M. W., Revuelto, J., López-Moreno, J. I., Fiddes, J., Essery, R., and Gascoin, S.: The Multiple Snow Data Assimilation System (MuSA v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022. 
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Auda, Y., Lundin, E. J., Gustafsson, J., Pokrovsky, O. S., Cazaurang, S., and Orgogozo, L.: A new land cover map of two watersheds under long-term environmental monitoring in the Swedish Arctic using Sentinel-2 data, Water, 15, 3311, https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183311, 2023. 
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Short summary
Permafrost (permanently frozen soil at depth) is thawing as a result of climate change. However, estimating its future degradation is particularly challenging due to the complex multi-physical processes involved. In this work, we designed and ran numerical simulations for months on a supercomputer to quantify the impact of climate change in a forested valley of central Siberia. There, climate change could increase the thickness of the seasonally thawed soil layer in summer by up to 65 % by 2100.
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