The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Research article
 | 
13 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2024

Future permafrost degradation under climate change in a headwater catchment of central Siberia: quantitative assessment with a mechanistic modelling approach

Thibault Xavier, Laurent Orgogozo, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky

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Short summary
Permafrost (permanently frozen soil at depth) is thawing as a result of climate change. However, estimating its future degradation is particularly challenging due to the complex multi-physical processes involved. In this work, we designed and ran numerical simulations for months on a supercomputer to quantify the impact of climate change in a forested valley of central Siberia. There, climate change could increase the thickness of the seasonally thawed soil layer in summer by up to 65 % by 2100.
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