Articles | Volume 16, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 22 Dec 2022
| 22 Dec 2022
Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries
Paul R. Holland
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Gemma K. O'Connor
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Thomas J. Bracegirdle
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Pierre Dutrieux
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Kaitlin A. Naughten
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Eric J. Steig
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
David P. Schneider
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Adrian Jenkins
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
James A. Smith
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Related authors
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Until recently, observed Antarctic sea ice was increasing, while in contrast numerical climate models simulated a decrease over the same period (1979–2014). This apparent mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of large 21st century sea ice loss and related aspects of Southern Hemisphere climate. Here we show that, with the inclusion of several low Antarctic sea ice years (notably 2017, 2022 and 2023), we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-77, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
A new specialised ice/ocean coupled model simulates the future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. The model predicts substantial ocean-driven ice retreat over the 125-year simulations. The future of small ‘pinning points’ (islands of grounded ice) are an important control on this evolution. Ocean melting is crucial in ungrounding these pinning points, providing the mechanism by which future climate change may affect the sea level contribution from this sector.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Xuewei Li, Qinghua Yang, Lejiang Yu, Paul R. Holland, Chao Min, Longjiang Mu, and Dake Chen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-359, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-359, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic sea ice thickness record minimum is confirmed occurring in autumn 2011. The dynamic and thermodynamic processes leading to the minimum thickness is analyzed based on a daily sea ice thickness reanalysis data covering the melting season. The results demonstrate that the dynamic transport of multiyear ice and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice thickness in 2011.
Alex Brisbourne, Bernd Kulessa, Thomas Hudson, Lianne Harrison, Paul Holland, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, David Ashmore, Bryn Hubbard, Emma Pearce, James White, Adam Booth, Keith Nicholls, and Andrew Smith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 887–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-887-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-887-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Melting of the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica may lead to its collapse. To help estimate its lifespan we need to understand how the ocean can circulate beneath. This requires knowledge of the geometry of the sub-shelf cavity. New and existing measurements of seabed depth are integrated to produce a map of the ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf. The observed deep seabed may provide a pathway for circulation of warm ocean water but at the same time reduce rapid tidal melt at a critical location.
Chen Cheng, Adrian Jenkins, Paul R. Holland, Zhaomin Wang, Chengyan Liu, and Ruibin Xia
The Cryosphere, 13, 265–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The sub-ice platelet layer (SIPL) under fast ice is most prevalent in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Using a modified plume model, we investigated the responses of SIPL thickening rate and frazil concentration to variations in ice shelf water supercooling in McMurdo Sound. It would be key to parameterizing the relevant process in more complex three-dimensional, primitive equation ocean models, which relies on the knowledge of the suspended frazil size spectrum within the ice–ocean boundary layer.
Alek A. Petty, Julienne C. Stroeve, Paul R. Holland, Linette N. Boisvert, Angela C. Bliss, Noriaki Kimura, and Walter N. Meier
The Cryosphere, 12, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
There was significant scientific and media attention surrounding Arctic sea ice in 2016, due primarily to the record-warm air temperatures and low sea ice conditions observed at the start of the year. Here we quantify and assess the record-low monthly sea ice cover in winter, spring and fall, and the lack of record-low sea ice conditions in summer. We explore the primary drivers of these monthly sea ice states and explore the implications for improved summer sea ice forecasting.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
D. Jansen, A. J. Luckman, A. Cook, S. Bevan, B. Kulessa, B. Hubbard, and P. R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 9, 1223–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Within the last year, a large rift in the southern part of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, propagated towards the inner part of the ice shelf. In this study we present the development of the rift as derived from remote sensing data and assess the impact of possible calving scenarios on the future stability of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, using a numerical model. We find that the calving front is likely to become unstable after the anticipated calving events.
A. A. Petty, P. R. Holland, and D. L. Feltham
The Cryosphere, 8, 761–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-761-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-761-2014, 2014
A. M. Brisbourne, A. M. Smith, E. C. King, K. W. Nicholls, P. R. Holland, and K. Makinson
The Cryosphere, 8, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1-2014, 2014
P. Dutrieux, D. G. Vaughan, H. F. J. Corr, A. Jenkins, P. R. Holland, I. Joughin, and A. H. Fleming
The Cryosphere, 7, 1543–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1543-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1543-2013, 2013
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-673, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-19, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Studying climate conditions near the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during Earth’s past warm periods informs us about how global warming may influence AIS ice loss. Using a global climate model, we investigate climate conditions near the AIS during the Last Interglacial (129 to 116 kyr ago), a period with warmer global temperatures and higher sea level than today. We identify the orbital and freshwater forcings that could cause ice loss and probe the mechanisms that lead to warmer climate conditions.
Colin Gareth Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth, Peter Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene Hewitt, Hazel Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm Roberts, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Froelicher, Neven Fuckar, Matthew Gidden, Helge Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, Jose Manuel Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Melia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming ~6 years (i.e. to 2030). Advances in these areas will increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, as well as deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as the 7th IPCC Assessment Report and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-95, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change arising from ice sheet-ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations, and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The 2nd Marine Ice Sheet Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice sheet-ocean interactions in global scale, IPCC class models.
Ian Joughin, Daniel Shapero, and Pierre Dutrieux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2929, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are losing ice to the ocean rapidly as warmer water melts their floating ice shelves. Models help determine how much such glaciers will contribute to sea level. We find that ice loss varies in direct proportion to how much melting the ice shelves are subjected to. Our estimated losses are sensitive to how much the friction beneath the glacier is reduced before it goes afloat. These glaciers should increase sea level by less than 10 cm in the next 200 years.
Ryan L. Fogt, Quentin Dalaiden, and Gemma K. O'Connor
Clim. Past, 20, 53–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice is rapidly changing, with record lows set in 2017, 2022, and 2023 following decades of increase. To place these changes in a longer historical context, reconstructions have been created; however, they are quite different prior to observations. Here we find that the differences are more strongly tied to the implied connection of each reconstruction with the atmospheric circulation rather than differences in seasonality or geographic representation.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Until recently, observed Antarctic sea ice was increasing, while in contrast numerical climate models simulated a decrease over the same period (1979–2014). This apparent mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of large 21st century sea ice loss and related aspects of Southern Hemisphere climate. Here we show that, with the inclusion of several low Antarctic sea ice years (notably 2017, 2022 and 2023), we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ.
Nicolaj Hansen, Andrew Orr, Xun Zou, Fredrik Boberg, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Ella Gilbert, Peter L. Langen, Matthew A. Lazzara, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Ruth Price, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Stuart Webster
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-145, 2023
Preprint under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated a melt event over the Ross Ice Shelf. We use regional climate models and a firn model to simulate the melt and compare the results with satellite data. We find that the firn model aligned well with observed melt days in certain parts of the ice shelf. The firn model had challenges accurately simulating the melt extent in the western sector. We identified potential reasons for these discrepancies, pointing to limitations in the models related to representing the cloud phase.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Allison P. Lepp, Lauren E. Miller, John B. Anderson, Matt O'Regan, Monica C. M. Winsborrow, James A. Smith, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Julia S. Wellner, Lindsay O. Prothro, and Evgeny A. Podolskiy
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-70, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
Shape and surface textures of silt-sized sediments are measured to connect marine sediment records with subglacial water flow. We find grain-shape alteration is greatest for glaciers in temperate settings and for which high-energy drainage events are implied, and that the surfaces of silt-sized sediments preserve evidence of glacial transport. Our results suggest grain shape and texture may reveal whether glaciers previously experienced temperate conditions with more abundant meltwater.
David T. Bett, Alexander T. Bradley, C. Rosie Williams, Paul R. Holland, Robert J. Arthern, and Daniel N. Goldberg
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-77, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
A new specialised ice/ocean coupled model simulates the future ice sheet evolution in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica. The model predicts substantial ocean-driven ice retreat over the 125-year simulations. The future of small ‘pinning points’ (islands of grounded ice) are an important control on this evolution. Ocean melting is crucial in ungrounding these pinning points, providing the mechanism by which future climate change may affect the sea level contribution from this sector.
Michael J. Bentley, James A. Smith, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Margaret R. Lindeman, Brice R. Rea, Angelika Humbert, Timothy P. Lane, Christopher M. Darvill, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Fiamma Straneo, Veit Helm, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1821–1837, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Some of its outlet glaciers and ice shelves have been breaking up and retreating, with inflows of warm ocean water identified as the likely reason. Here we report direct measurements of warm ocean water in an unusual lake that is connected to the ocean beneath the ice shelf in front of the 79° N Glacier. This glacier has not yet shown much retreat, but the presence of warm water makes future retreat more likely.
James A. Smith, Louise Callard, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Maria Luisa Sánchez-Montes, Timothy P. Lane, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Erin L. McClymont, Christopher M. Darvill, Brice R. Rea, Colm O'Cofaigh, Pauline Gulliver, Werner Ehrmann, Richard S. Jones, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1247–1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an accelerating rate. To understand the significance of these changes we reconstruct the history of one of its fringing ice shelves, known as 79° N ice shelf. We show that the ice shelf disappeared 8500 years ago, following a period of enhanced warming. An important implication of our study is that 79° N ice shelf is susceptible to collapse when atmospheric and ocean temperatures are ~2°C warmer than present, which could occur by the middle of this century.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Chris R. Stokes, Adrian Jenkins, Jim R. Jordan, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have shown that the Shirase Glacier catchment in East Antarctica has been gaining mass over the past 2 decades, a trend largely attributed to increased snowfall. Our multi-decadal observations of Shirase Glacier show that ocean forcing has also contributed to some of this recent mass gain. This has been caused by strengthening easterly winds reducing the inflow of warm water underneath the Shirase ice tongue, causing the glacier to slow down and thicken.
Lindsey Davidge, Eric J. Steig, and Andrew J. Schauer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7337–7351, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7337-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a continuous-flow analysis (CFA) method to measure Δ17O by laser spectroscopy, and we show that centimeter-scale information can be measured reliably in ice cores by this method. We present seasonally resolved Δ17O data from Greenland and demonstrate that the measurement precision is not reduced by the CFA process. Our results encourage the development and use of CFA methods for Δ17O, and they identify calibration strategies as a target for method improvement.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Thomas Caton Harrison, Stavroula Biri, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John C. King, Elizabeth C. Kent, Étienne Vignon, and John Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1415–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Easterly winds encircle Antarctica, impacting sea ice and helping drive ocean currents which shield ice shelves from warmer waters. Reanalysis datasets give us our most complete picture of how these winds behave. In this paper we use satellite data, surface measurements and weather balloons to test how realistic recent reanalysis estimates are. The winds are generally accurate, especially in the most recent of the datasets, but important short-term variations are often misrepresented.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Bradley R. Markle and Eric J. Steig
Clim. Past, 18, 1321–1368, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1321-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The geochemistry preserved in polar ice can provide detailed histories of Earth’s climate over millennia. Here we use the stable isotope ratios of ice from many Antarctic ice cores to reconstruct temperature variability of Antarctica and the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere over tens of thousands of years. We improve upon existing methods to estimate temperature from the geochemical measurements and investigate the patterns of climate change in the past.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 617–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present an improved model of the Antarctic continental shelf ocean and demonstrate that it is capable of reproducing present-day conditions. The improvements are fundamental and regard the inclusion of tides and ocean eddies. We conclude that the model is well suited to gain new insights into processes that are important for Antarctic ice sheet retreat and global ocean changes. Hence, the model will ultimately help to improve projections of sea level rise and climate change.
Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Erin L. McClymont, Nicole J. Bale, Ellen C. Hopmans, Stefan Schouten, Juliane Müller, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Claire Allen, Torsten Bickert, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Elaine Mawbey, Victoria Peck, Aleksandra Svalova, and James A. Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 3485–3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3485-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3485-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ocean temperature records are needed to fully understand the impact of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are powerful tools for reconstructing ocean temperature but can be difficult to apply to the Southern Ocean. Our results show active GDGT synthesis in relatively warm depths of the ocean. This research improves the application of GDGT palaeoceanographic proxies in the Southern Ocean.
Andrew Orr, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Edwin P. Gerber, Gareth J. Marshall, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis datasets combine observations and weather forecast simulations to create our best estimate of the state of the atmosphere and are important for climate monitoring. Differences in the technical details of these products mean that they may give different results. This study therefore examined how changes associated with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole are represented, which is one of the most important climate changes in recent decades, and showed that they were broadly consistent.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Jim R. Jordan, Chris R. Stokes, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Adrian Jenkins
The Cryosphere, 15, 663–676, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a historical overview of changes in Denman Glacier's flow speed, structure and calving events since the 1960s. Based on these observations, we perform a series of numerical modelling experiments to determine the likely cause of Denman's acceleration since the 1970s. We show that grounding line retreat, ice shelf thinning and the detachment of Denman's ice tongue from a pinning point are the most likely causes of the observed acceleration.
Xuewei Li, Qinghua Yang, Lejiang Yu, Paul R. Holland, Chao Min, Longjiang Mu, and Dake Chen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-359, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-359, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic sea ice thickness record minimum is confirmed occurring in autumn 2011. The dynamic and thermodynamic processes leading to the minimum thickness is analyzed based on a daily sea ice thickness reanalysis data covering the melting season. The results demonstrate that the dynamic transport of multiyear ice and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice thickness in 2011.
Jenna A. Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Jon S. Edwards, Todd A. Sowers, Emma C. Kahle, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Eric J. Steig, Dominic A. Winski, Erich C. Osterberg, Tyler J. Fudge, Murat Aydin, Ekaterina Hood, Michael Kalk, Karl J. Kreutz, David G. Ferris, and Joshua A. Kennedy
Clim. Past, 16, 2431–2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2431-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new ice core drilled at the South Pole provides a 54 000-year paleo-environmental record including the composition of the past atmosphere. This paper describes the gas chronology for the South Pole ice core, based on a high-resolution methane record. The new gas chronology, in combination with the existing ice age scale from Winski et al. (2019), allows a model-independent reconstruction of the delta age record.
Kelly A. Hogan, Robert D. Larter, Alastair G. C. Graham, Robert Arthern, James D. Kirkham, Rebecca L. Totten, Tom A. Jordan, Rachel Clark, Victoria Fitzgerald, Anna K. Wåhlin, John B. Anderson, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Frank O. Nitsche, Lauren Simkins, James A. Smith, Karsten Gohl, Jan Erik Arndt, Jongkuk Hong, and Julia Wellner
The Cryosphere, 14, 2883–2908, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2883-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The sea-floor geometry around the rapidly changing Thwaites Glacier is a key control on warm ocean waters reaching the ice shelf and grounding zone beyond. This area was previously unsurveyed due to icebergs and sea-ice cover. The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration mapped this area for the first time in 2019. The data reveal troughs over 1200 m deep and, as this region is thought to have only ungrounded recently, provide key insights into the morphology beneath the grounded ice sheet.
Jessica A. Badgeley, Eric J. Steig, Gregory J. Hakim, and Tyler J. Fudge
Clim. Past, 16, 1325–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1325-2020, 2020
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Jan Erik Arndt, Robert D. Larter, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Simon H. Sørli, Matthias Forwick, James A. Smith, and Lukas Wacker
The Cryosphere, 14, 2115–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2115-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We interpret landforms on the seabed and investigate sediment cores to improve our understanding of the past ice sheet development in this poorly understood part of Antarctica. Recent crack development of the Brunt ice shelf has raised concerns about its stability and the security of the British research station Halley. We describe ramp-shaped bedforms that likely represent ice shelf grounding and stabilization locations of the past that may reflect an analogue to the process going on now.
Tyler J. Fudge, David A. Lilien, Michelle Koutnik, Howard Conway, C. Max Stevens, Edwin D. Waddington, Eric J. Steig, Andrew J. Schauer, and Nicholas Holschuh
Clim. Past, 16, 819–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-819-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-819-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A 1750 m ice core at the South Pole was recently drilled. The oldest ice is ~55 000 years old. Since ice at the South Pole flows at 10 m per year, the ice in the core originated upstream, where the climate is different. We made measurements of the ice flow, snow accumulation, and temperature upstream. We determined the ice came from ~150 km away near the Titan Dome where the accumulation rate was similar but the temperature was colder. Our measurements improve the interpretation of the ice core.
Alex Brisbourne, Bernd Kulessa, Thomas Hudson, Lianne Harrison, Paul Holland, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, David Ashmore, Bryn Hubbard, Emma Pearce, James White, Adam Booth, Keith Nicholls, and Andrew Smith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 887–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-887-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-887-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Melting of the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica may lead to its collapse. To help estimate its lifespan we need to understand how the ocean can circulate beneath. This requires knowledge of the geometry of the sub-shelf cavity. New and existing measurements of seabed depth are integrated to produce a map of the ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf. The observed deep seabed may provide a pathway for circulation of warm ocean water but at the same time reduce rapid tidal melt at a critical location.
Alice Barthel, Cécile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of six models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
David E. Shean, Ian R. Joughin, Pierre Dutrieux, Benjamin E. Smith, and Etienne Berthier
The Cryosphere, 13, 2633–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2633-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2633-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We produced an 8-year, high-resolution DEM record for Pine Island Glacier (PIG), a site of substantial Antarctic mass loss in recent decades. We developed methods to study the spatiotemporal evolution of ice shelf basal melting, which is responsible for ~ 60 % of PIG mass loss. We present shelf-wide basal melt rates and document relative melt rates for kilometer-scale basal channels and keels, offering new indirect observations of ice–ocean interaction beneath a vulnerable ice shelf.
Dominic A. Winski, Tyler J. Fudge, David G. Ferris, Erich C. Osterberg, John M. Fegyveresi, Jihong Cole-Dai, Zayta Thundercloud, Thomas S. Cox, Karl J. Kreutz, Nikolas Ortman, Christo Buizert, Jenna Epifanio, Edward J. Brook, Ross Beaudette, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Todd Sowers, Eric J. Steig, Emma C. Kahle, Tyler R. Jones, Valerie Morris, Murat Aydin, Melinda R. Nicewonger, Kimberly A. Casey, Richard B. Alley, Edwin D. Waddington, Nels A. Iverson, Nelia W. Dunbar, Ryan C. Bay, Joseph M. Souney, Michael Sigl, and Joseph R. McConnell
Clim. Past, 15, 1793–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1793-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1793-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A deep ice core was recently drilled at the South Pole to understand past variations in the Earth's climate. To understand the information contained within the ice, we present the relationship between the depth and age of the ice in the South Pole Ice Core. We found that the oldest ice in our record is from 54 302 ± 519 years ago. Our results show that, on average, 7.4 cm of snow falls at the South Pole each year.
Robert Tardif, Gregory J. Hakim, Walter A. Perkins, Kaleb A. Horlick, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, David M. Anderson, Eric J. Steig, and David Noone
Clim. Past, 15, 1251–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
An updated Last Millennium Reanalysis is presented, using an expanded multi-proxy database, and proxy models representing the seasonal characteristics of proxy records, in addition to the dual sensitivity to temperature and moisture of tree-ring-width chronologies. We show enhanced skill in spatial reconstructions of key climate variables in the updated reanalysis, compared to an earlier version, resulting from the combined influences of the enhanced proxy network and improved proxy modeling.
Lionel Favier, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Adrian Jenkins, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The melting at the base of floating ice shelves is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet current retreat. Here, we use an ideal set-up to assess a wide range of melting parameterisations depending on oceanic properties with regard to a new ocean–ice-sheet coupled model, published here for the first time. A parameterisation that depends quadratically on thermal forcing in both a local and a non-local way yields the best results and needs to be further assessed with more realistic set-ups.
Robert D. Larter, Kelly A. Hogan, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, James A. Smith, Christine L. Batchelor, Matthieu Cartigny, Alex J. Tate, James D. Kirkham, Zoë A. Roseby, Gerhard Kuhn, Alastair G. C. Graham, and Julian A. Dowdeswell
The Cryosphere, 13, 1583–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present high-resolution bathymetry data that provide the most complete and detailed imagery of any Antarctic palaeo-ice stream bed. These data show how subglacial water was delivered to and influenced the dynamic behaviour of the ice stream. Our observations provide insights relevant to understanding the behaviour of modern ice streams and forecasting the contributions that they will make to future sea level rise.
Chen Cheng, Adrian Jenkins, Paul R. Holland, Zhaomin Wang, Chengyan Liu, and Ruibin Xia
The Cryosphere, 13, 265–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The sub-ice platelet layer (SIPL) under fast ice is most prevalent in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Using a modified plume model, we investigated the responses of SIPL thickening rate and frazil concentration to variations in ice shelf water supercooling in McMurdo Sound. It would be key to parameterizing the relevant process in more complex three-dimensional, primitive equation ocean models, which relies on the knowledge of the suspended frazil size spectrum within the ice–ocean boundary layer.
Frazer D. W. Christie, Robert G. Bingham, Noel Gourmelen, Eric J. Steig, Rosie R. Bisset, Hamish D. Pritchard, Kate Snow, and Simon F. B. Tett
The Cryosphere, 12, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2461-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2461-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
With a focus on the hitherto little-studied Marie Byrd Land coastline linking Antarctica's more comprehensively studied Amundsen and Ross Sea Embayments, this paper uses both satellite remote sensing (Landsat, ASTER, ICESat, and CryoSat2) and climate and ocean records (i.e. ERA-Interim, Met Office EN4 data) to examine links between ice recession, inter-decadal atmosphere-ocean forcing and other influences acting upon the Pacific-facing coastline of West Antarctica.
Dominic A. Hodgson, Kelly Hogan, James M. Smith, James A. Smith, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Alastair G. C. Graham, Peter Fretwell, Claire Allen, Vicky Peck, Jan-Erik Arndt, Boris Dorschel, Christian Hübscher, Andrew M. Smith, and Robert Larter
The Cryosphere, 12, 2383–2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2383-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the Coats Land ice margin, Antarctica, providing a multi-disciplinary geophysical assessment of the ice sheet configuration through its last advance and retreat; a description of the physical constraints on the stability of the past and present ice and future margin based on its submarine geomorphology and ice-sheet geometry; and evidence that once detached from the bed, the ice shelves in this region were predisposed to rapid retreat back to coastal grounding lines.
Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Erich Fischer, Ben J. Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Harinarayan Krishnan, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, and Justin J. Wettstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the midlatitude atmospheric circulation response to 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming using modelling experiments run for the HAPPI project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis & Projected Impacts). While the chaotic nature of the atmospheric flow dominates in these low-end warming scenarios, some local changes emerge. Case studies explore precipitation impacts both for regions that dry (Mediterranean) and regions that get wetter (Europe, North American west coast).
Nancy A. N. Bertler, Howard Conway, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Daniel B. Emanuelsson, Mai Winstrup, Paul T. Vallelonga, James E. Lee, Ed J. Brook, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Taylor J. Fudge, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Peter D. Neff, Thomas Blunier, Ross Edwards, Paul A. Mayewski, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Christo Buizert, Silvia Canessa, Ruzica Dadic, Helle A. Kjær, Andrei Kurbatov, Dongqi Zhang, Edwin D. Waddington, Giovanni Baccolo, Thomas Beers, Hannah J. Brightley, Lionel Carter, David Clemens-Sewall, Viorela G. Ciobanu, Barbara Delmonte, Lukas Eling, Aja Ellis, Shruthi Ganesh, Nicholas R. Golledge, Skylar Haines, Michael Handley, Robert L. Hawley, Chad M. Hogan, Katelyn M. Johnson, Elena Korotkikh, Daniel P. Lowry, Darcy Mandeno, Robert M. McKay, James A. Menking, Timothy R. Naish, Caroline Noerling, Agathe Ollive, Anaïs Orsi, Bernadette C. Proemse, Alexander R. Pyne, Rebecca L. Pyne, James Renwick, Reed P. Scherer, Stefanie Semper, Marius Simonsen, Sharon B. Sneed, Eric J. Steig, Andrea Tuohy, Abhijith Ulayottil Venugopal, Fernando Valero-Delgado, Janani Venkatesh, Feitang Wang, Shimeng Wang, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Arran Whiteford, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, and Xin Zhang
Clim. Past, 14, 193–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-193-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature and snow accumulation records from the annually dated Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core show that for the past 2 700 years, the eastern Ross Sea warmed, while the western Ross Sea showed no trend and West Antarctica cooled. From the 17th century onwards, this dipole relationship changed. Now all three regions show concurrent warming, with snow accumulation declining in West Antarctica and the eastern Ross Sea.
Alek A. Petty, Julienne C. Stroeve, Paul R. Holland, Linette N. Boisvert, Angela C. Bliss, Noriaki Kimura, and Walter N. Meier
The Cryosphere, 12, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
There was significant scientific and media attention surrounding Arctic sea ice in 2016, due primarily to the record-warm air temperatures and low sea ice conditions observed at the start of the year. Here we quantify and assess the record-low monthly sea ice cover in winter, spring and fall, and the lack of record-low sea ice conditions in summer. We explore the primary drivers of these monthly sea ice states and explore the implications for improved summer sea ice forecasting.
Werner M. J. Lazeroms, Adrian Jenkins, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Pierre Mathiot, Adrian Jenkins, Christopher Harris, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2849–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2849-2017, 2017
Tyler R. Jones, James W. C. White, Eric J. Steig, Bruce H. Vaughn, Valerie Morris, Vasileios Gkinis, Bradley R. Markle, and Spruce W. Schoenemann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 617–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-617-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
New measurement systems have been developed that continuously melt ice core samples, in contrast to other methods that analyze a single sample at a time. These newer systems are capable of reducing analysis time by many years and improving data set resolution. In this study, we introduce improved methodologies that optimize the speed, accuracy, and precision of a water isotope continuous-flow system. The presented system will be used for Antarctic and Greenland ice core projects.
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
D. Jansen, A. J. Luckman, A. Cook, S. Bevan, B. Kulessa, B. Hubbard, and P. R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 9, 1223–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1223-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Within the last year, a large rift in the southern part of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, propagated towards the inner part of the ice shelf. In this study we present the development of the rift as derived from remote sensing data and assess the impact of possible calving scenarios on the future stability of the Larsen C Ice Shelf, using a numerical model. We find that the calving front is likely to become unstable after the anticipated calving events.
C. Buizert, K. M. Cuffey, J. P. Severinghaus, D. Baggenstos, T. J. Fudge, E. J. Steig, B. R. Markle, M. Winstrup, R. H. Rhodes, E. J. Brook, T. A. Sowers, G. D. Clow, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, M. Sigl, J. R. McConnell, and K. C. Taylor
Clim. Past, 11, 153–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, 2015
L. Geng, J. Cole-Dai, B. Alexander, J. Erbland, J. Savarino, A. J. Schauer, E. J. Steig, P. Lin, Q. Fu, and M. C. Zatko
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13361–13376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13361-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Examinations on snowpit and firn core results from Summit, Greenland suggest that there are two mechanisms leading to the observed double nitrate peaks in some years in the industrial era: 1) long-rang transport of nitrate and 2) enhanced local photochemical production of nitrate. Both of these mechanisms are related to pollution transport, as the additional nitrate from either direct transport or enhanced local photochemistry requires enhanced nitrogen sources from anthropogenic emissions.
E. J. Steig, V. Gkinis, A. J. Schauer, S. W. Schoenemann, K. Samek, J. Hoffnagle, K. J. Dennis, and S. M. Tan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2421–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2421-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2421-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
E. D. Sofen, B. Alexander, E. J. Steig, M. H. Thiemens, S. A. Kunasek, H. M. Amos, A. J. Schauer, M. G. Hastings, J. Bautista, T. L. Jackson, L. E. Vogel, J. R. McConnell, D. R. Pasteris, and E. S. Saltzman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5749–5769, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5749-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5749-2014, 2014
A. A. Petty, P. R. Holland, and D. L. Feltham
The Cryosphere, 8, 761–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-761-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-761-2014, 2014
A. M. Brisbourne, A. M. Smith, E. C. King, K. W. Nicholls, P. R. Holland, and K. Makinson
The Cryosphere, 8, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1-2014, 2014
P. Dutrieux, D. G. Vaughan, H. F. J. Corr, A. Jenkins, P. R. Holland, I. Joughin, and A. H. Fleming
The Cryosphere, 7, 1543–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1543-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1543-2013, 2013
P. Fretwell, H. D. Pritchard, D. G. Vaughan, J. L. Bamber, N. E. Barrand, R. Bell, C. Bianchi, R. G. Bingham, D. D. Blankenship, G. Casassa, G. Catania, D. Callens, H. Conway, A. J. Cook, H. F. J. Corr, D. Damaske, V. Damm, F. Ferraccioli, R. Forsberg, S. Fujita, Y. Gim, P. Gogineni, J. A. Griggs, R. C. A. Hindmarsh, P. Holmlund, J. W. Holt, R. W. Jacobel, A. Jenkins, W. Jokat, T. Jordan, E. C. King, J. Kohler, W. Krabill, M. Riger-Kusk, K. A. Langley, G. Leitchenkov, C. Leuschen, B. P. Luyendyk, K. Matsuoka, J. Mouginot, F. O. Nitsche, Y. Nogi, O. A. Nost, S. V. Popov, E. Rignot, D. M. Rippin, A. Rivera, J. Roberts, N. Ross, M. J. Siegert, A. M. Smith, D. Steinhage, M. Studinger, B. Sun, B. K. Tinto, B. C. Welch, D. Wilson, D. A. Young, C. Xiangbin, and A. Zirizzotti
The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans-Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model
Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022
Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part B: Unsupervised learning for source process characterisation
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part A: Event detection for cryoseismology
Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of the Astrolabe glacier (Antarctica) derived from optical imagery
Cosmogenic-nuclide data from Antarctic nunataks can constrain past ice sheet instabilities
Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)
High mid-Holocene accumulation rates over West Antarctica inferred from a pervasive ice-penetrating radar reflector
Seasonal and interannual variability of the landfast ice mass balance between 2009 and 2018 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
Megadunes in Antarctica: migration and characterization from remote and in situ observations
Slowdown of Shirase Glacier, East Antarctica, caused by strengthening alongshore winds
Timescales of outlet-glacier flow with negligible basal friction: theory, observations and modeling
Antarctic contribution to future sea level from ice shelf basal melt as constrained by ice discharge observations
New 10Be exposure ages improve Holocene ice sheet thinning history near the grounding line of Pope Glacier, Antarctica
Antarctic surface climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model version 2 during the satellite era and into the future (1979–2100)
Inverting ice surface elevation and velocity for bed topography and slipperiness beneath Thwaites Glacier
Hysteretic evolution of ice rises and ice rumples in response to variations in sea level
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Sensitivity of the Ross Ice Shelf to environmental and glaciological controls
High-resolution subglacial topography around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, based on ground-based radar surveys over 30 years
Cosmogenic nuclide dating of two stacked ice masses: Ong Valley, Antarctica
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves
Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf
Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica
Review article: Existing and potential evidence for Holocene grounding line retreat and readvance in Antarctica
Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion
Net effect of ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions reduces simulated transient Miocene Antarctic ice-sheet variability
Sensitivity of Antarctic surface climate to a new spectral snow albedo and radiative transfer scheme in RACMO2.3p3
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2362, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice-flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there's some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice-flow models.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2433, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans-Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet, by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1341, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue, and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1340, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging because of low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here, we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from Whillans Ice Stream then evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Laurie Padman, Emilie Klein, Peter D. Bromirski, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica's ice shelves (the floating extension of the ice sheet) help regulate ice flow. As ice shelves thin or lose contact with the bedrock, the upstream ice tends to accelerate, resulting in increased mass loss. Here, we use an ice sheet model to simulate the effect of seasonal sea surface height variations and see if we can reproduce observed seasonal variability of ice velocity on the ice shelf. When correctly parameterised, the model fits the observations well.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-736, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of the Astrolabe glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favored the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt, Greg Balco, Hannah Buchband, and Perry Spector
The Cryosphere, 17, 1623–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the use of multimillion-year exposure ages from Antarctic bedrock outcrops to benchmark ice sheet model predictions and thereby infer ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. We describe a new approach for model–data comparison, highlight an example where observational data are used to distinguish end-member models, and provide guidance for targeted sampling around Antarctica that can improve understanding of ice sheet response to climate warming in the past and future.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Julien A. Bodart, Robert G. Bingham, Duncan A. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, David W. Ashmore, Enrica Quartini, Andrew S. Hein, David G. Vaughan, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 17, 1497–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how West Antarctica will change in response to future climatic change depends on our understanding of past ice processes. Here, we use a reflector widely visible on airborne radar data across West Antarctica to estimate accumulation rates over the past 4700 years. By comparing our estimates with current atmospheric data, we find that accumulation rates were 18 % greater than modern rates. This has implications for our understanding of past ice processes in the region.
Na Li, Ruibo Lei, Petra Heil, Bin Cheng, Minghu Ding, Zhongxiang Tian, and Bingrui Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 917–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The observed annual maximum landfast ice (LFI) thickness off Zhongshan (Davis) was 1.59±0.17 m (1.64±0.08 m). Larger interannual and local spatial variabilities for the seasonality of LFI were identified at Zhongshan, with the dominant influencing factors of air temperature anomaly, snow atop, local topography and wind regime, and oceanic heat flux. The variability of LFI properties across the study domain prevailed at interannual timescales, over any trend during the recent decades.
Giacomo Traversa, Davide Fugazza, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 427–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Megadunes are fields of huge snow dunes present in Antarctica and on other planets, important as they present mass loss on the leeward side (glazed snow), on a continent characterized by mass gain. Here, we studied megadunes using remote data and measurements acquired during past field expeditions. We quantified their physical properties and migration and demonstrated that they migrate against slope and wind. We further proposed automatic detections of the glazed snow on their leeward side.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Chris R. Stokes, Adrian Jenkins, Jim R. Jordan, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have shown that the Shirase Glacier catchment in East Antarctica has been gaining mass over the past 2 decades, a trend largely attributed to increased snowfall. Our multi-decadal observations of Shirase Glacier show that ocean forcing has also contributed to some of this recent mass gain. This has been caused by strengthening easterly winds reducing the inflow of warm water underneath the Shirase ice tongue, causing the glacier to slow down and thicken.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 327–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of glaciers with geometric similarity. According to the relation, thicker and wider glaciers on a steeper bed slope have a much faster timescale than shallower, narrower glaciers on a flatter bed slope. The relation is supported by observations and simplified numerical simulations. We combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 instability-prone Antarctic outlet glaciers.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
Jonathan R. Adams, Joanne S. Johnson, Stephen J. Roberts, Philippa J. Mason, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Klaus Wilcken, Greg Balco, Brent Goehring, Brenda Hall, John Woodward, and Dylan H. Rood
The Cryosphere, 16, 4887–4905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are experiencing significant ice loss. Geological data provide historical context for ongoing ice loss in West Antarctica, including constraints on likely future ice sheet behaviour in response to climatic warming. We present evidence from rare isotopes measured in rocks collected from an outcrop next to Pope Glacier. These data suggest that Pope Glacier thinned faster and sooner after the last ice age than previously thought.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Helen Ockenden, Robert G. Bingham, Andrew Curtis, and Daniel Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3867–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hills and valleys hidden under the ice of Thwaites Glacier have an impact on ice flow and future ice loss, but there are not many three-dimensional observations of their location or size. We apply a mathematical theory to new high-resolution observations of the ice surface to predict the bed topography beneath the ice. There is a good correlation with ice-penetrating radar observations. The method may be useful in areas with few direct observations or as a further constraint for other methods.
A. Clara J. Henry, Reinhard Drews, Clemens Schannwell, and Vjeran Višnjević
The Cryosphere, 16, 3889–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a 3D, idealised model to study features in coastal Antarctica called ice rises and ice rumples. These features regulate the rate of ice flow into the ocean. We show that when sea level is raised or lowered, the size of these features and the ice flow pattern can change. We find that the features depend on the ice history and do not necessarily fully recover after an equal increase and decrease in sea level. This shows that it is important to initialise models with accurate ice geometry.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Francesca Baldacchino, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, and Alena Malyarenko
The Cryosphere, 16, 3723–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf will evolve in a warming world is important to the future stability of Antarctica. It remains unclear what changes could drive the largest mass loss in the future and where places are most likely to trigger larger mass losses. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing that the RIS is sensitive to changes in environmental and glaciological controls at regions which are currently experiencing changes. These regions need to be monitored in a warming world.
Shun Tsutaki, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kotaro Fukui, Hideaki Motoyama, Yu Hoshina, Fumio Nakazawa, Takashi Obase, Hiroshi Ohno, Ikumi Oyabu, Fuyuki Saito, Konosuke Sugiura, and Toshitaka Suzuki
The Cryosphere, 16, 2967–2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed an ice thickness map across the Dome Fuji region, East Antarctica, from improved radar data and previous data that had been collected since the late 1980s. The data acquired using the improved radar systems allowed basal topography to be identified with higher accuracy. The new ice thickness data show the bedrock topography, particularly the complex terrain of subglacial valleys and highlands south of Dome Fuji, with substantially high detail.
Marie Bergelin, Jaakko Putkonen, Greg Balco, Daniel Morgan, Lee B. Corbett, and Paul R. Bierman
The Cryosphere, 16, 2793–2817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier ice contains information on past climate and can help us understand how the world changes through time. We have found and sampled a buried ice mass in Antarctica that is much older than most ice on Earth and difficult to date. Therefore, we developed a new dating application which showed the ice to be 3 million years old. Our new dating solution will potentially help to date other ancient ice masses since such old glacial ice could yield data on past environmental conditions on Earth.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Jeannette Xiu Wen Wan, Natalya Gomez, Konstantin Latychev, and Holly Kyeore Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 2203–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the grid resolution necessary to accurately model the Earth deformation and sea-level change associated with West Antarctic ice mass changes. We find that results converge at higher resolutions, and errors of less than 5 % can be achieved with a 7.5 km grid. Our results also indicate that error due to grid resolution is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous deformation in low-viscosity regions.
Joanne S. Johnson, Ryan A. Venturelli, Greg Balco, Claire S. Allen, Scott Braddock, Seth Campbell, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda L. Hall, Peter D. Neff, Keir A. Nichols, Dylan H. Rood, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and John Woodward
The Cryosphere, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have suggested that some portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet were less extensive than present in the last few thousand years. We discuss how past ice loss and regrowth during this time would leave its mark on geological and glaciological records and suggest ways in which future studies could detect such changes. Determining timing of ice loss and gain around Antarctica and conditions under which they occurred is critical for preparing for future climate-warming-induced changes.
Stephen J. Chuter, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Jonathan Rougier, Geoffrey Dawson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 1349–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We find the Antarctic Peninsula to have a mean mass loss of 19 ± 1.1 Gt yr−1 over the 2003–2019 period, driven predominantly by changes in ice dynamic flow like due to changes in ocean forcing. This long-term record is crucial to ascertaining the region’s present-day contribution to sea level rise, with the understanding of driving processes enabling better future predictions. Our statistical approach enables us to estimate this previously poorly surveyed regions mass balance more accurately.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Cited articles
Agosta, C., Fettweis, X., and Datta, R.: Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, The Cryosphere, 9, 2311–2321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, 2015.
Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A.: Contributions of external forcings to Southern Annular Mode trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli3774.1, 2006.
Barnes, E. A., Barnes, N. W., and Polvani, L. M.: Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 27, 852–867, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00246.1, 2014.
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020.
Bett, D. T., Holland, P. R., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Kimura, S., and Fleming, A.: The impact of the Amundsen Sea freshwater balance on ocean melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, J. Geophys. Res., 125, e2020JC016305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016305, 2020.
Bracegirdle, T. J., Turner, J., Hosking, J. S., and Phillips, T.: Sources of uncertainty in projections of 21st century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, in CMIP5 climate models, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2093–2104, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2032-1, 2014.
Bracegirdle, T. J., Krinner, G., Tonelli, M., Haumann, F. A., Naughten, K. A., Rackow, T., Roach, L. A., and Wainer, I.: Twenty first century changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 21, e984, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984, 2020.
Cai, W. J., Santoso, A., Wang, G. J., Yeh, S. W., An, S. I., Cobb, K. M., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F. F., Kug, J. S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Takahashi, K., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., Watanabe, M., and Wu, L. X.: ENSO and greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 849–859, https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate2743, 2015.
Christianson, K., Bushuk, M., Dutrieux, P., Parizek, B. R., Joughin, I. R., Alley, R. B., Shean, D. E., Abrahamsen, E. P., Anandakrishnan, S., Heywood, K. J., Kim, T. W., Lee, S. H., Nicholls, K., Stanton, T., Truffer, M., Webber, B. G. M., Jenkins, A., Jacobs, S., Bindschadler, R., and Holland, D. M.: Sensitivity of Pine Island Glacier to observed ocean forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10817–10825, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070500, 2016.
Ciasto, L. M. and Thompson, D. W. J.: Observations of large-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Southern Hmisphere, J. Climate, 21, 1244–1259, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1809.1, 2008.
Dalaiden, Q., Goosse, H., Rezsöhazy, J., and Thomas, E. R.: Reconstructing atmospheric circulation and sea-ice extent in the West Antarctic over the past 200 years using data assimilation, Clim. Dynam., 57, 3479–3503, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05879-6, 2021.
Dalaiden, Q., Schurer, A. P., Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., Goosse, H., and Hegerl, G. C.: West Antarctic surface climate changes since the mid-20th century driven by anthropogenic forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099543, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099543, 2022.
De Rydt, J. and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Coupled ice shelf-ocean modeling and complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 865–880, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jf003791, 2016.
De Rydt, J., Holland, P. R., Dutrieux, P., and Jenkins, A.: Geometric and oceanographic controls on melting beneath Pine Island Glacier, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 2420–2438, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009513, 2014.
De Rydt, J., Reese, R., Paolo, F. S., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Drivers of Pine Island Glacier speed-up between 1996 and 2016, The Cryosphere, 15, 113–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, 2021.
Deser, C., Phillips, A. S., Simpson, I. R., Rosenbloom, N., Coleman, D., Lehner, F., Pendergrass, A. G., DiNezio, P., and Stevenson, S.: Isolating the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Resource, J. Climate, 33, 7835–7858, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1, 2020.
Ding, Q., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Wallace, J. M.: Influence of the Tropics on the Southern Annular Mode, J. Climate, 25, 6330–6348, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00523.1, 2012.
Ding, Q. H., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Kuttel, M.: Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming, Nat. Geosci., 4, 398–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1129, 2011.
Dutrieux, P., De Rydt, J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ha, H. K., Lee, S. H., Steig, E. J., Ding, Q. H., Abrahamsen, E. P., and Schroder, M.: Strong Sensitivity of Pine Island Ice-Shelf Melting to Climatic Variability, Science, 343, 174–178, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244341, 2014.
England, M. R., Polvani, L. M., Smith, K. L., Landrum, L., and Holland, M. M.: Robust response of the Amundsen Sea Low to stratospheric ozone depletion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8207–8213, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070055, 2016.
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and Le Brocq, A. M.: Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014.
Fogt, R. L., Schneider, D. P., Goergens, C. A., Jones, J. M., Clark, L. N., and Garberoglio, M. J.: Seasonal Antarctic pressure variability during the twentieth century from spatially complete reconstructions and CAM5 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1435–1452, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04674-8, 2019.
Gillett, N. P., Fyfe, J. C., and Parker, D. E.: Attribution of observed sea level pressure trends to greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2302–2306, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50500, 2013.
Goyal, R., Gupda, A. S., Jucker, M., and England, M. H.: Historical and projected changes in the Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090849, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090849, 2021.
Hakim, G. J., Emile-Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M., Tardif, R., Steiger, N., and Perkins, W. A.: The last millenium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 6745–6764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751, 2016.
Harvey, B. J., Shaffrey, L. C., and Woollings, T. J.: Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1171–1182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1883-9, 2014.
Henley, B. J., Gergis, J., Karoly, D. J., Power, S., Kennedy, J., and Folland, C. K.: A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3077–3090, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1, 2015.
Hersbach, H.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hines, K. M., Bromwich, D. H., and Marshall, G. J.: Artificial Surface Pressure Trends in the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, J. Climate, 13, 3940–3952, 2000.
Hoffman, M. J., Asay-Davis, X., Price, S. F., Fyke, J., and Perego, M.: Effect of Subshelf Melt Variability on Sea Level Rise Contribution From Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 124, 2798–2822, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005155, 2019.
Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., and Steig, E. J.: West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 12, 718–724, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9, 2019.
IPCC: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 755 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964, 2019.
Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S. S., McPhail, S. D., Perrett, J. R., Webb, A. T., and White, D.: Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica and implications for its retreat, Nat. Geosci., 3, 468–472, https://doi.org/10.1038/Ngeo890, 2010.
Jenkins, A., Shoosmith, D., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S., Kim, T. W., Lee, S. H., Ha, H. K., and Stammerjohn, S.: West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability, Nat. Geosci., 11, 733–738, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0207-4, 2018.
Karoly, D.: Southern Hemisphere Circulation Features Associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events, J. Climate, 2, 1239–1252, 1989.
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M., Kushner, P., Lamarque, J. F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-13-00255.1, 2015.
Kay, J. E., Wall, C., Yettella, V., Medeiros, B., Hannay, C., Caldwell, P., and Bitz, C.: Global climate impacts of fixing the Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the Community Earth System Model, J. Climate, 29, 4617–4636, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0358.1, 2016.
Keeble, J., Hassler, B., Banerjee, A., Checa-Garcia, R., Chiodo, G., Davis, S., Eyring, V., Griffiths, P. T., Morgenstern, O., Nowack, P., Zeng, G., Zhang, J., Bodeker, G., Burrows, S., Cameron-Smith, P., Cugnet, D., Danek, C., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L. W., Kubin, A., Li, L., Lohmann, G., Michou, M., Mills, M. J., Nabat, P., Olivié, D., Park, S., Seland, Ø., Stoll, J., Wieners, K.-H., and Wu, T.: Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021.
Kimura, S., Jenkins, A., Regan, H., Holland, P. R., Assmann, K. M., Whitt, D. B., Van Wessem, M., van de Berg, W. J., Reijmer, C. H., and Dutrieux, P.: Oceanographic Controls on the Variability of Ice-Shelf Basal Melting and Circulation of Glacial Meltwater in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 122, 10131–10155, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jc012926, 2017.
Konrad, H., Gilbert, L., Cornford, S. L., Payne, A. J., Hogg, A., Muir, A., and Shepherd, A.: Uneven onset and pace of ice-dynamical imbalance in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 910–918, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070733, 2017.
Lachlan-Cope, T. and Connolley, W.: Teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the Amundsen-Bellinghausens sea: Role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D23101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jd006386, 2006.
Larter, R. D., Anderson, J. B., Graham, A. G. C., Gohl, K., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Jakobsson, M., Johnson, J. S., Kuhn, G., Nitsche, F., Smith, J. A., Witus, A. E., Bentley, M. J., Dowdeswell, J. A., Ehrmann, W., Klages, J. P., Lindow, J., O Cofaigh, C., and Spiegel, C.: Reconstruction of changes in the Amundsen Sea and Bellingshausen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 100, 55–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.10.016, 2014.
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Vizcaino, M., Fyke, J., van Kampenhout, L., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model, Clim. Dynam., 47, 1367–1381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4, 2016.
Lhermitte, S., Sun, S., Shuman, C., Wouters, B., Pattyn, F., Wuite, J., Berthier, E., and Nagler, T.: Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 24735–24741, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117, 2020.
Lou, J., Holbrook, N. J., and O'Kane, T. J.: South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability, J. Climate, 32, 6051–6069, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0249.1, 2019.
Marshall, G. J.: Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses, J. Climate, 16, 4134–4143, 2003.
Marshall, G. J., Fogt, R. L., Turner, J., and Clem, K. R.: Can current reanalyses accurately portray changes in Southern Annular Mode structure prior to 1979?, Clim. Dynam., 59, 3717–3740, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06292-3, 2022.
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Bitz, C. M., Chung, C. T. Y., and Teng, H. Y.: Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability, Nat. Geosci., 9, 590–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2751, 2016.
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., and Scheuchl, B.: Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1576–1584, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013gl059069, 2014.
Naughten, K. A., Holland, P. R., Dutrieux, P., Kimura, S., Bett, D. T., and Jenkins, A.: Simulated twentieth-century ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL094566, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094566, 2022.
NCAR: Climate Data Gateway, https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/, last access: 21 December 2022.
Newman, M., Alexander, M. A., Ault, T. R., Cobb, K. M., Deser, C., Di Lorenzo, E., Mantua, N. J., Miller, A. J., Minobe, S., Nakamura, H., Schneider, N., Vimont, D. J., Phillips, A. S., Scott, J. D., and Smith, C. A.: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited, J. Climate, 29, 4399–4427, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0508.1, 2016.
O'Connor, G. K., Steig, E. J., and Hakim, G. J.: Strengthening Southern Hemisphere westerlies and Amundsen Sea Low deepening over the 20th century revealed by proxy-data assimilation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095999, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095999, 2021a.
O'Connor, G. K., Steig, E. J., and Hakim, G. J.: Southern Hemisphere winds, pressure, and temperature over the 20th century from proxy-data assimilation, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5507607, 2021b.
PAGES2k: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Scientific Data, 4, 170088, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88, 2017.
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015.
Purich, A., England, M. H., Cai, W., Chikamoto, Y., Timmermann, A., Fyfe, J. C., Frankcombe, L., Meehl, G. A., and Arblaster, J. M.: Tropical Pacific SST Drivers of Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Trends, J. Climate, 29, 8931–8948, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-16-0440.1, 2016.
Raphael, M. N., Marshall, G. J., Turner, J., Fogt, R. L., Schneider, D., Dixon, D. A., Hosking, J. S., Jones, J. M., and Hobbs, W. R.: The Amundsen Sea Low: Variability, Change, and Impact on Antarctic Climate, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-14-00018.1, 2016.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002670, 2003.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014.
Sanderson, B. M., Xu, Y., Tebaldi, C., Wehner, M., O'Neill, B., Jahn, A., Pendergrass, A. G., Lehner, F., Strand, W. G., Lin, L., Knutti, R., and Lamarque, J. F.: Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 ∘C futures, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, 2017.
Sanderson, B. M., Oleson, K. W., Strand, W. G., Lehner, F., and O'Neill, B. C.: A new ensemble of GCM simulations to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario, Climatic Change, 146, 303–318, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1567-z, 2018.
Schneider, D. P. and Deser, C.: Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4599–4618, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3893-5, 2018.
Schneider, D. P. and Steig, E. J.: Ice cores record significant 1940s Antarctic warmth related to tropical climate variability, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 12154–12158, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0803627105, 2008.
Shaw, T. A.: Mechanisms of Future Predicted Changes in the Zonal Mean Mid-Latitude Circulation, Current Climate Change Reports, 5, 345–357, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00145-8, 2019.
Shepherd, A., Wingham, D., and Rignot, E.: Warm ocean is eroding West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl021106, 2004.
Shepherd, A., Gilbert, L., Muir, A. S., Konrad, H., McMillan, M., Slater, T., Briggs, K. H., Sundal, A. V., Hogg, A. E., and Engdahl, M. E.: Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8174–8183, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082182, 2019.
Sigmond, M., Reader, M. C., Fyfe, J. C., and Gillett, N. P.: Drivers of past and future Southern Ocean change: Stratospheric ozone versus greenhouse gas impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047120, 2011.
Smith, J. A., Andersen, T. J., Shortt, M., Gaffney, A. M., Truffer, M., Stanton, T. P., Bindschadler, R., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., Hillenbrand, C. D., Ehrmann, W., Corr, H. F. J., Farley, N., Crowhurst, S., and Vaughan, D. G.: Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier, Nature, 549, 292–292, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23650, 2017.
Snow, K., Goldberg, D. N., Holland, P. R., Jordan, J. R., Arthern, R. J., and Jenkins, A.: The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11878–11885, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075745, 2017.
Son, S.-W., Gerber, E. P., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L. M., Gillett, N. P., Seo, K.-H., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S., Garny, H., Garcia, R., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T. and Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Shibata, K., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.: Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D00M07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014271, 2010.
Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Battisti, D. S., and Jenkins, A.: Tropical forcing of Circumpolar Deep Water Inflow and outlet glacier thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 19–28, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A110, 2012.
Steig, E. J., Ding, Q. H., White, J. W. C., Kuttel, M., Rupper, S. B., Neumann, T. A., Neff, P. D., Gallant, A. J. E., Mayewski, P. A., Taylor, K. C., Hoffmann, G., Dixon, D. A., Schoenemann, S. W., Markle, B. R., Fudge, T. J., Schneider, D. P., Schauer, A. J., Teel, R. P., Vaughn, B. H., Burgener, L., Williams, J., and Korotkikh, E.: Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2000 years, Nat. Geosci., 6, 372–375, https://doi.org/10.1038/Ngeo1778, 2013.
Stevenson, S., Fox-Kemper, B., Jochum, M., Neale, R., Deser, C., and Meehl, G.: Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?, J. Climate, 25, 2129–2145, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00252.1, 2012.
Tardif, R., Hakim, G. J., Perkins, W. A., Horlick, K. A., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., Anderson, D. M., Steig, E. J., and Noone, D.: Last Millennium Reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling, Clim. Past, 15, 1251–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1251-2019, 2019.
Thoma, M., Jenkins, A., Holland, D., and Jacobs, S.: Modelling Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034939, 2008.
Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K. M., and Karoly, D. J.: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, Nat. Geosci., 4, 741–749, https://doi.org/10.1038/Ngeo1296, 2011.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Williams, C. R., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., and Arthern, R. J.: Frequency response of ice streams, P. R. Soc. A, 468, 3285–3310, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2012.0180, 2012.
Yeh, S. W., Cai, W. J., Min, S. K., McPhaden, M. J., Dommenget, D., Dewitte, B., Collins, M., Ashok, K., An, S. I., Yim, B. Y., and Kug, J. S.: ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing, Rev. Geophys., 56, 185–206, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017rg000568, 2018.
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether...
