Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 01 Apr 2022
| 01 Apr 2022
Reassessing seasonal sea ice predictability of the Pacific-Arctic sector using a Markov model
Yunhe Wang
CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Institute of
Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao,
China
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York,
USA
Haibo Bi
CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Institute of
Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
Laboratory for Marine Geology, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine
Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao,
China
Mitchell Bushuk
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Yu Liang
CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Institute of
Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Cuihua Li
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York,
USA
Haijun Huang
CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Institute of
Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
Laboratory for Marine Geology, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine
Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao,
China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Related authors
Yu Liang, Haibo Bi, Haijun Huang, Ruibo Lei, Xi Liang, Bin Cheng, and Yunhe Wang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1107–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A record minimum July sea ice extent, since 1979, was observed in 2020. Our results reveal that an anomalously high advection of energy and water vapor prevailed during spring (April to June) 2020 over regions with noticeable sea ice retreat. The large-scale atmospheric circulation and cyclones act in concert to trigger the exceptionally warm and moist flow. The convergence of the transport changed the atmospheric characteristics and the surface energy budget, thus causing a severe sea ice melt.
Haibo Bi, Qinghua Yang, Xi Liang, Liang Zhang, Yunhe Wang, Yu Liang, and Haijun Huang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1423–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1423-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1423-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic sea ice extent is diminishing, which is deemed an immediate response to a warmer Earth. However, quantitative estimates about the contribution due to transport and melt to the sea ice loss are still vague. This study mainly utilizes satellite observations to quantify the dynamic and thermodynamic aspects of ice loss for nearly 40 years (1979–2016). In addition, the potential impacts on ice reduction due to different atmospheric circulation pattern are highlighted.
Haibo Bi, Zehua Zhang, Yunhe Wang, Xiuli Xu, Yu Liang, Jue Huang, Yilin Liu, and Min Fu
The Cryosphere, 13, 1025–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1025-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1025-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Baffin Bay serves as a huge reservoir of sea ice which provides solid freshwater sources for the seas downstream. Based on satellite observations, significant increasing trends are found for the annual sea ice area flux through the three gates. These trends are chiefly related to the increasing ice motion which is associated with thinner ice owing to the warmer climate (i.e., higher surface air temperature and shortened freezing period) and increased air and water drag coefficients.
Joseph Fogarty, Elie Bou-Zeid, Mitchell Bushuk, and Linette Boisvert
The Cryosphere, 18, 4335–4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We hypothesize that using a broad set of surface characterization metrics for polar sea ice surfaces will lead to more accurate representations in general circulation models. However, the first step is to identify the minimum set of metrics required. We show via numerical simulations that sea ice surface patterns can play a crucial role in determining boundary layer structures. We then statistically analyze a set of high-resolution sea ice surface images to obtain this minimal set of parameters.
Shanice T. Bailey, C. Spencer Jones, Ryan P. Abernathey, Arnold L. Gordon, and Xiaojun Yuan
Ocean Sci., 19, 381–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-381-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the variability of water mass transformation within the Weddell Gyre (WG). The WG is the largest source of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Changes to our climate can modify the mechanisms that transform waters to become AABW. In this study, we computed water mass transformation volume budgets by using three ocean models and a mathematical framework developed by Walin. Out of the three models, we found one to be most useful in studying the interannual variability of AABW.
Yu Liang, Haibo Bi, Haijun Huang, Ruibo Lei, Xi Liang, Bin Cheng, and Yunhe Wang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1107–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A record minimum July sea ice extent, since 1979, was observed in 2020. Our results reveal that an anomalously high advection of energy and water vapor prevailed during spring (April to June) 2020 over regions with noticeable sea ice retreat. The large-scale atmospheric circulation and cyclones act in concert to trigger the exceptionally warm and moist flow. The convergence of the transport changed the atmospheric characteristics and the surface energy budget, thus causing a severe sea ice melt.
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
Tingfeng Dou, Cunde Xiao, Jiping Liu, Qiang Wang, Shifeng Pan, Jie Su, Xiaojun Yuan, Minghu Ding, Feng Zhang, Kai Xue, Peter A. Bieniek, and Hajo Eicken
The Cryosphere, 15, 883–895, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-883-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-883-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events can accelerate the surface ablation of sea ice, greatly influencing the ice–albedo feedback. We found that spring ROS events have shifted to earlier dates over the Arctic Ocean in recent decades, which is correlated with sea ice melt onset in the Pacific sector and most Eurasian marginal seas. There has been a clear transition from solid to liquid precipitation, leading to a reduction in spring snow depth on sea ice by more than −0.5 cm per decade since the 1980s.
Haibo Bi, Qinghua Yang, Xi Liang, Liang Zhang, Yunhe Wang, Yu Liang, and Haijun Huang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1423–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1423-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1423-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic sea ice extent is diminishing, which is deemed an immediate response to a warmer Earth. However, quantitative estimates about the contribution due to transport and melt to the sea ice loss are still vague. This study mainly utilizes satellite observations to quantify the dynamic and thermodynamic aspects of ice loss for nearly 40 years (1979–2016). In addition, the potential impacts on ice reduction due to different atmospheric circulation pattern are highlighted.
Haibo Bi, Zehua Zhang, Yunhe Wang, Xiuli Xu, Yu Liang, Jue Huang, Yilin Liu, and Min Fu
The Cryosphere, 13, 1025–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1025-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1025-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Baffin Bay serves as a huge reservoir of sea ice which provides solid freshwater sources for the seas downstream. Based on satellite observations, significant increasing trends are found for the annual sea ice area flux through the three gates. These trends are chiefly related to the increasing ice motion which is associated with thinner ice owing to the warmer climate (i.e., higher surface air temperature and shortened freezing period) and increased air and water drag coefficients.
Related subject area
Discipline: Sea ice | Subject: Sea Ice
Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization
A large-scale high-resolution numerical model for sea-ice fragmentation dynamics
Experimental modelling of the growth of tubular ice brinicles from brine flows under sea ice
Why is summertime Arctic sea ice drift speed projected to decrease?
Seasonal Evolution of the Sea Ice Floe Size Distribution from Two Decades of MODIS Data
Impact of atmospheric rivers on Arctic sea ice variations
The impacts of anomalies in atmospheric circulations on Arctic sea ice outflow and sea ice conditions in the Barents and Greenland seas: case study in 2020
Atmospheric highs drive asymmetric sea ice drift during lead opening from Point Barrow
Spatial characteristics of frazil streaks in the Terra Nova Bay Polynya from high-resolution visible satellite imagery
Modelling the evolution of Arctic multiyear sea ice over 2000–2018
A quasi-objective single-buoy approach for understanding Lagrangian coherent structures and sea ice dynamics
Linking scales of sea ice surface topography: evaluation of ICESat-2 measurements with coincident helicopter laser scanning during MOSAiC
Analysis of microseismicity in sea ice with deep learning and Bayesian inference: application to high-resolution thickness monitoring
A collection of wet beam models for wave–ice interaction
First results of Antarctic sea ice type retrieval from active and passive microwave remote sensing data
Probabilistic spatiotemporal seasonal sea ice presence forecasting using sequence-to-sequence learning and ERA5 data in the Hudson Bay region
Predictability of Arctic sea ice drift in coupled climate models
Recovering and monitoring the thickness, density, and elastic properties of sea ice from seismic noise recorded in Svalbard
Influences of changing sea ice and snow thicknesses on simulated Arctic winter heat fluxes
A new state-dependent parameterization for the free drift of sea ice
Arctic sea ice sensitivity to lateral melting representation in a coupled climate model
Retrieval and parameterisation of sea-ice bulk density from airborne multi-sensor measurements
A generalized stress correction scheme for the Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology: impact on the fracture angles and deformations
Wave dispersion and dissipation in landfast ice: comparison of observations against models
The influence of snow on sea ice as assessed from simulations of CESM2
Meltwater sources and sinks for multiyear Arctic sea ice in summer
An X-ray micro-tomographic study of the pore space, permeability and percolation threshold of young sea ice
Calibration of sea ice drift forecasts using random forest algorithms
Multiscale variations in Arctic sea ice motion and links to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
The flexural strength of bonded ice
Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift summer sea ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification
An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models
Refining the sea surface identification approach for determining freeboards in the ICESat-2 sea ice products
Surface-based Ku- and Ka-band polarimetric radar for sea ice studies
Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations
Satellite-based sea ice thickness changes in the Laptev Sea from 2002 to 2017: comparison to mooring observations
Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent
Changes of the Arctic marginal ice zone during the satellite era
An enhancement to sea ice motion and age products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Accuracy and inter-analyst agreement of visually estimated sea ice concentrations in Canadian Ice Service ice charts using single-polarization RADARSAT-2
Prediction of monthly Arctic sea ice concentrations using satellite and reanalysis data based on convolutional neural networks
Variability scaling and consistency in airborne and satellite altimetry measurements of Arctic sea ice
Sea ice volume variability and water temperature in the Greenland Sea
Sea ice export through the Fram Strait derived from a combined model and satellite data set
Estimating early-winter Antarctic sea ice thickness from deformed ice morphology
On the multi-fractal scaling properties of sea ice deformation
Brief communication: Pancake ice floe size distribution during the winter expansion of the Antarctic marginal ice zone
What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing
Interannual sea ice thickness variability in the Bay of Bothnia
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness
Shan Sun and Amy Solomon
The Cryosphere, 18, 3033–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study brings to light the suitability of CICE for seasonal prediction being contingent on several factors, such as initial conditions like sea ice coverage and thickness, as well as atmospheric and oceanic conditions including oceanic currents and sea surface temperature. We show there is potential to improve seasonal forecasting by using a more reliable sea ice thickness initialization. Thus, data assimilation of sea ice thickness is highly relevant for advancing seasonal prediction skills.
Jan Åström, Fredrik Robertsen, Jari Haapala, Arttu Polojärvi, Rivo Uiboupin, and Ilja Maljutenko
The Cryosphere, 18, 2429–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The HiDEM code has been developed for analyzing the fracture and fragmentation of brittle materials and has been extensively applied to glacier calving. Here, we report on the adaptation of the code to sea-ice dynamics and breakup. The code demonstrates the capability to simulate sea-ice dynamics on a 100 km scale with an unprecedented resolution. We argue that codes of this type may become useful for improving forecasts of sea-ice dynamics.
Sergio Testón-Martínez, Laura M. Barge, Jan Eichler, C. Ignacio Sainz-Díaz, and Julyan H. E. Cartwright
The Cryosphere, 18, 2195–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Brinicles are tubular ice structures that grow under the sea ice in cold regions. This happens because the salty water going downwards from the sea ice is colder than the seawater. We have successfully recreated an analogue of these structures in our laboratory. Three methods were used, producing different results. In this paper, we explain how to use these methods and study the behaviour of the brinicles created when changing the flow of water and study the importance for natural brinicles.
Jamie L. Ward and Neil F. Tandon
The Cryosphere, 18, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over the long term, the speed at which sea ice in the Arctic moves has been increasing during all seasons. However, nearly all climate models project that sea ice motion will decrease during summer. This study aims to understand the mechanisms responsible for these projected decreases in summertime sea ice motion. We find that models produce changes in winds and ocean surface tilt which cause the sea ice to slow down, and it is realistic to expect such changes to also occur in the real world.
Ellen Margaret Buckley, Leela Cañuelas, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Monica Martinez Wilhelmus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-89, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic sea ice cover seasonally evolves from large plates separated by long, linear leads in the winter to a mosaic of smaller sea ice floes in the summer. Here, we present a new image segmentation algorithm applied to thousands of images and identifying over 9 million individual pieces of ice. We observe the characteristics of the floes and how they evolve throughout the summer as the ice breaks up.
Linghan Li, Forest Cannon, Matthew R. Mazloff, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Anna M. Wilson, and Fred Martin Ralph
The Cryosphere, 18, 121–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how the moisture transport through atmospheric rivers influences Arctic sea ice variations using hourly atmospheric ERA5 for 1981–2020 at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution. We show that individual atmospheric rivers initiate rapid sea ice decrease through surface heat flux and winds. We find that the rate of change in sea ice concentration has significant anticorrelation with moisture, northward wind and turbulent heat flux on weather timescales almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean.
Fanyi Zhang, Ruibo Lei, Mengxi Zhai, Xiaoping Pang, and Na Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 4609–4628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric circulation anomalies lead to high Arctic sea ice outflow in winter 2020, causing heavy ice conditions in the Barents–Greenland seas, subsequently impeding the sea surface temperature warming. This suggests that the winter–spring Arctic sea ice outflow can be considered a predictor of changes in sea ice and other marine environmental conditions in the Barents–Greenland seas, which could help to improve our understanding of the physical connections between them.
MacKenzie E. Jewell, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Cathleen A. Geiger
The Cryosphere, 17, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice repeatedly fractures near a prominent Alaskan headland as winds move ice along the coast, challenging predictions of sea ice drift. We find winds from high-pressure systems drive these fracturing events, and the Alaskan coastal boundary modifies the resultant ice drift. This observational study shows how wind patterns influence sea ice motion near coasts in winter. Identified relations between winds, ice drift, and fracturing provide effective test cases for dynamic sea ice models.
Katarzyna Bradtke and Agnieszka Herman
The Cryosphere, 17, 2073–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2073-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2073-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The frazil streaks are one of the visible signs of complex interactions between the mixed-layer dynamics and the forming sea ice. Using high-resolution visible satellite imagery we characterize their spatial properties, relationship with the meteorological forcing, and role in modifying wind-wave growth in the Terra Nova Bay Polynya. We provide a simple statistical tool for estimating the extent and ice coverage of the region of high ice production under given wind speed and air temperature.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Randall K. Scharien, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Jennifer V. Lukovich
The Cryosphere, 17, 1545–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coherent flow patterns in sea ice have a significant influence on sea ice fracture and refreezing. We can better understand the state of sea ice, and its influence on the atmosphere and ocean, if we understand these structures. By adapting recent developments in chaotic dynamical systems, we are able to approximate ice stretching surrounding individual ice buoys. This illuminates the state of sea ice at much higher resolution and allows us to see previously invisible ice deformation patterns.
Robert Ricker, Steven Fons, Arttu Jutila, Nils Hutter, Kyle Duncan, Sinead L. Farrell, Nathan T. Kurtz, and Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen
The Cryosphere, 17, 1411–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1411-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Information on sea ice surface topography is important for studies of sea ice as well as for ship navigation through ice. The ICESat-2 satellite senses the sea ice surface with six laser beams. To examine the accuracy of these measurements, we carried out a temporally coincident helicopter flight along the same ground track as the satellite and measured the sea ice surface topography with a laser scanner. This showed that ICESat-2 can see even bumps of only few meters in the sea ice cover.
Ludovic Moreau, Léonard Seydoux, Jérôme Weiss, and Michel Campillo
The Cryosphere, 17, 1327–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1327-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the perspective of an upcoming seasonally ice-free Arctic, understanding the dynamics of sea ice in the changing climate is a major challenge in oceanography and climatology. It is therefore essential to monitor sea ice properties with fine temporal and spatial resolution. In this paper, we show that icequakes recorded on sea ice can be processed with artificial intelligence to produce accurate maps of sea ice thickness with high temporal and spatial resolutions.
Sasan Tavakoli and Alexander V. Babanin
The Cryosphere, 17, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-939-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-939-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have tried to develop some new wave–ice interaction models by considering two different types of forces, one of which emerges in the ice and the other of which emerges in the water. We have checked the ability of the models in the reconstruction of wave–ice interaction in a step-wise manner. The accuracy level of the models is acceptable, and it will be interesting to check whether they can be used in wave climate models or not.
Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, Yufang Ye, and Mohammed Shokr
The Cryosphere, 17, 105–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is necessary to know the type of Antarctic sea ice present – first-year ice (grown in one season) or multiyear ice (survived one summer melt) – to understand and model its evolution, as the ice types behave and react differently. We have adapted and extended an existing method (originally for the Arctic), and now, for the first time, daily maps of Antarctic sea ice types can be derived from microwave satellite data. This will allow a new data set from 2002 well into the future to be built.
Nazanin Asadi, Philippe Lamontagne, Matthew King, Martin Richard, and K. Andrea Scott
The Cryosphere, 16, 3753–3773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3753-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning approaches are deployed to provide accurate daily spatial maps of sea ice presence probability based on ERA5 data as input. Predictions are capable of predicting freeze-up/breakup dates within a 7 d period at specific locations of interest to shipping operators and communities. Forecasts of the proposed method during the breakup season have skills comparing to Climate Normal and sea ice concentration forecasts from a leading subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting system.
Simon Felix Reifenberg and Helge Friedrich Goessling
The Cryosphere, 16, 2927–2946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using model simulations, we analyze the impact of chaotic error growth on Arctic sea ice drift predictions. Regarding forecast uncertainty, our results suggest that it matters in which season and where ice drift forecasts are initialized and that both factors vary with the model in use. We find ice velocities to be slightly more predictable than near-surface wind, a main driver of ice drift. This is relevant for future developments of ice drift forecasting systems.
Agathe Serripierri, Ludovic Moreau, Pierre Boue, Jérôme Weiss, and Philippe Roux
The Cryosphere, 16, 2527–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2527-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As a result of global warming, the sea ice is disappearing at a much faster rate than predicted by climate models. To better understand and predict its ongoing decline, we deployed 247 geophones on the fast ice in Van Mijen Fjord in Svalbard, Norway, in March 2019. The analysis of these data provided a precise daily evolution of the sea-ice parameters at this location with high spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. The results obtained are consistent with the observations made in situ.
Laura L. Landrum and Marika M. Holland
The Cryosphere, 16, 1483–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1483-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High-latitude Arctic wintertime sea ice and snow insulate the relatively warmer ocean from the colder atmosphere. As the climate warms, wintertime Arctic conductive heat fluxes increase even when the sea ice concentrations remain high. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE) show how sea ice and snow thicknesses, as well as the distribution of these thicknesses, significantly impact large-scale calculations of wintertime surface heat budgets in the Arctic.
Charles Brunette, L. Bruno Tremblay, and Robert Newton
The Cryosphere, 16, 533–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-533-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-533-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice motion is a versatile parameter for monitoring the Arctic climate system. In this contribution, we use data from drifting buoys, winds, and ice thickness to parameterize the motion of sea ice in a free drift regime – i.e., flowing freely in response to the forcing from the winds and ocean currents. We show that including a dependence on sea ice thickness and taking into account a climatology of the surface ocean circulation significantly improves the accuracy of sea ice motion estimates.
Madison M. Smith, Marika Holland, and Bonnie Light
The Cryosphere, 16, 419–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models represent the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land with equations of varying complexity and are important tools for understanding changes in global climate. Here, we explore how realistic variations in the equations describing how sea ice melt occurs at the edges (called lateral melting) impact ice and climate. We find that these changes impact the progression of the sea-ice–albedo feedback in the Arctic and so make significant changes to the predicted Arctic sea ice.
Arttu Jutila, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker, Luisa von Albedyll, Thomas Krumpen, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 16, 259–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-259-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-ice thickness retrieval from satellite altimeters relies on assumed sea-ice density values because density cannot be measured from space. We derived bulk densities for different ice types using airborne laser, radar, and electromagnetic induction sounding measurements. Compared to previous studies, we found high bulk density values due to ice deformation and younger ice cover. Using sea-ice freeboard, we derived a sea-ice bulk density parameterisation that can be applied to satellite data.
Mathieu Plante and L. Bruno Tremblay
The Cryosphere, 15, 5623–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5623-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a generalized form for the damage parameterization such that super-critical stresses can return to the yield with different final sub-critical stress states. In uniaxial compression simulations, the generalization improves the orientation of sea ice fractures and reduces the growth of numerical errors. Shear and convergence deformations however remain predominant along the fractures, contrary to observations, and this calls for modification of the post-fracture viscosity formulation.
Joey J. Voermans, Qingxiang Liu, Aleksey Marchenko, Jean Rabault, Kirill Filchuk, Ivan Ryzhov, Petra Heil, Takuji Waseda, Takehiko Nose, Tsubasa Kodaira, Jingkai Li, and Alexander V. Babanin
The Cryosphere, 15, 5557–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5557-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have shown through field experiments that the amount of wave energy dissipated in landfast ice, sea ice attached to land, is much larger than in broken ice. By comparing our measurements against predictions of contemporary wave–ice interaction models, we determined which models can explain our observations and which cannot. Our results will improve our understanding of how waves and ice interact and how we can model such interactions to better forecast waves and ice in the polar regions.
Marika M. Holland, David Clemens-Sewall, Laura Landrum, Bonnie Light, Donald Perovich, Chris Polashenski, Madison Smith, and Melinda Webster
The Cryosphere, 15, 4981–4998, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
As the most reflective and most insulative natural material, snow has important climate effects. For snow on sea ice, its high reflectivity reduces ice melt. However, its high insulating capacity limits ice growth. These counteracting effects make its net influence on sea ice uncertain. We find that with increasing snow, sea ice in both hemispheres is thicker and more extensive. However, the drivers of this response are different in the two hemispheres due to different climate conditions.
Don Perovich, Madison Smith, Bonnie Light, and Melinda Webster
The Cryosphere, 15, 4517–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4517-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
During summer, Arctic sea ice melts on its surface and bottom and lateral edges. Some of this fresh meltwater is stored on the ice surface in features called melt ponds. The rest flows into the ocean. The meltwater flowing into the upper ocean affects ice growth and melt, upper ocean properties, and ocean ecosystems. Using field measurements, we found that the summer meltwater was equal to an 80 cm thick layer; 85 % of this meltwater flowed into the ocean and 15 % was stored in melt ponds.
Sönke Maus, Martin Schneebeli, and Andreas Wiegmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 4047–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4047-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4047-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
As the hydraulic permeability of sea ice is difficult to measure, observations are sparse. The present work presents numerical simulations of the permeability of young sea ice based on a large set of 3D X-ray tomographic images. It extends the relationship between permeability and porosity available so far down to brine porosities near the percolation threshold of a few per cent. Evaluation of pore scales and 3D connectivity provides novel insight into the percolation behaviour of sea ice.
Cyril Palerme and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 15, 3989–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Methods have been developed for calibrating sea ice drift forecasts from an operational prediction system using machine learning algorithms. These algorithms use predictors from sea ice concentration observations during the initialization of the forecasts, sea ice and wind forecasts, and some geographical information. Depending on the calibration method, the mean absolute error is reduced between 3.3 % and 8.0 % for the direction and between 2.5 % and 7.1 % for the speed of sea ice drift.
Dongyang Fu, Bei Liu, Yali Qi, Guo Yu, Haoen Huang, and Lilian Qu
The Cryosphere, 15, 3797–3811, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3797-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show three main sea ice drift patterns have different multiscale variation characteristics. The oscillation period of the third sea ice transport pattern is longer than the other two, and the ocean environment has a more significant influence on it due to the different regulatory effects of the atmosphere and ocean environment on sea ice drift patterns on various scales. Our research can provide a basis for the study of Arctic sea ice dynamics parameterization in numerical models.
Andrii Murdza, Arttu Polojärvi, Erland M. Schulson, and Carl E. Renshaw
The Cryosphere, 15, 2957–2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2957-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The strength of refrozen floes or piles of ice rubble is an important factor in assessing ice-structure interactions, as well as the integrity of an ice cover itself. The results of this paper provide unique data on the tensile strength of freeze bonds and are the first measurements to be reported. The provided information can lead to a better understanding of the behavior of refrozen ice floes and better estimates of the strength of an ice rubble pile.
H. Jakob Belter, Thomas Krumpen, Luisa von Albedyll, Tatiana A. Alekseeva, Gerit Birnbaum, Sergei V. Frolov, Stefan Hendricks, Andreas Herber, Igor Polyakov, Ian Raphael, Robert Ricker, Sergei S. Serovetnikov, Melinda Webster, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 15, 2575–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2575-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Summer sea ice thickness observations based on electromagnetic induction measurements north of Fram Strait show a 20 % reduction in mean and modal ice thickness from 2001–2020. The observed variability is caused by changes in drift speeds and consequential variations in sea ice age and number of freezing-degree days. Increased ocean heat fluxes measured upstream in the source regions of Arctic ice seem to precondition ice thickness, which is potentially still measurable more than a year later.
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
Ron Kwok, Alek A. Petty, Marco Bagnardi, Nathan T. Kurtz, Glenn F. Cunningham, Alvaro Ivanoff, and Sahra Kacimi
The Cryosphere, 15, 821–833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-821-2021, 2021
Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Rasmus Tonboe, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker, James Mead, Robbie Mallett, Marcus Huntemann, Polona Itkin, Martin Schneebeli, Daniela Krampe, Gunnar Spreen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Ilkka Matero, Mario Hoppmann, and Michel Tsamados
The Cryosphere, 14, 4405–4426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4405-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a first look at the data collected by a new dual-frequency Ka- and Ku-band in situ radar over winter sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The instrument shows potential for using both bands to retrieve snow depth over sea ice, as well as sensitivity of the measurements to changing snow and atmospheric conditions.
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Guillian Van Achter, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 14, 2409–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The continuous melting of the Arctic sea ice observed in the last decades has a significant impact at global and regional scales. To understand the amplitude and consequences of this impact, the monitoring of the total sea ice volume is crucial. However, in situ monitoring in such a harsh environment is hard to perform and far too expensive. This study shows that four well-placed sampling locations are sufficient to explain about 70 % of the inter-annual changes in the pan-Arctic sea ice volume.
H. Jakob Belter, Thomas Krumpen, Stefan Hendricks, Jens Hoelemann, Markus A. Janout, Robert Ricker, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 14, 2189–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The validation of satellite sea ice thickness (SIT) climate data records with newly acquired moored sonar SIT data shows that satellite products provide modal rather than mean SIT in the Laptev Sea region. This tendency of satellite-based SIT products to underestimate mean SIT needs to be considered for investigations of sea ice volume transports. Validation of satellite SIT in the first-year-ice-dominated Laptev Sea will support algorithm development for more reliable SIT records in the Arctic.
Mark S. Handcock and Marilyn N. Raphael
The Cryosphere, 14, 2159–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional methods of calculating the annual cycle of sea ice extent disguise the variation of amplitude and timing (phase) of the advance and retreat of the ice. We present a multiscale model that explicitly allows them to vary, resulting in a much improved representation of the cycle. We show that phase is the dominant contributor to the variability in the cycle and that the anomalous decay of Antarctic sea ice in 2016 was due largely to a change of phase.
Rebecca J. Rolph, Daniel L. Feltham, and David Schröder
The Cryosphere, 14, 1971–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
It is well known that the Arctic sea ice extent is declining, and it is often assumed that the marginal ice zone (MIZ), the area of partial sea ice cover, is consequently increasing. However, we find no trend in the MIZ extent during the last 40 years from observations that is consistent with a widening of the MIZ as it moves northward. Differences of MIZ extent between different satellite retrievals are too large to provide a robust basis to verify model simulations of MIZ extent.
Mark A. Tschudi, Walter N. Meier, and J. Scott Stewart
The Cryosphere, 14, 1519–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new version of a set of data products that contain the velocity of sea ice and the age of this ice has been developed. We provide a history of the product development and discuss the improvements to the algorithms that create these products. We find that changes in sea ice motion and age show a significant shift in the Arctic ice cover, from a pack with a high concentration of older ice to a sea ice cover dominated by younger ice, which is more susceptible to summer melt.
Angela Cheng, Barbara Casati, Adrienne Tivy, Tom Zagon, Jean-François Lemieux, and L. Bruno Tremblay
The Cryosphere, 14, 1289–1310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice charts by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contain visually estimated ice concentration produced by analysts. The accuracy of manually derived ice concentrations is not well understood. The subsequent uncertainty of ice charts results in downstream uncertainties for ice charts users, such as models and climatology studies, and when used as a verification source for automated sea ice classifiers. This study quantifies the level of accuracy and inter-analyst agreement for ice charts by CIS.
Young Jun Kim, Hyun-Cheol Kim, Daehyeon Han, Sanggyun Lee, and Jungho Im
The Cryosphere, 14, 1083–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we proposed a novel 1-month sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction model with eight predictors using a deep-learning approach, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The proposed CNN model was evaluated and compared with the two baseline approaches, random-forest and simple-regression models, resulting in better performance. This study also examined SIC predictions for two extreme cases in 2007 and 2012 in detail and the influencing factors through a sensitivity analysis.
Shiming Xu, Lu Zhou, and Bin Wang
The Cryosphere, 14, 751–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-751-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-751-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice thickness parameters are key to polar climate change studies and forecasts. Airborne and satellite measurements provide complementary observational capabilities. The study analyzes the variability in freeboard and snow depth measurements and its changes with scale in Operation IceBridge, CryoVEx, CryoSat-2 and ICESat. Consistency between airborne and satellite data is checked. Analysis calls for process-oriented attribution of variability and covariability features of these parameters.
Valeria Selyuzhenok, Igor Bashmachnikov, Robert Ricker, Anna Vesman, and Leonid Bobylev
The Cryosphere, 14, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-477-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-477-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores a link between the long-term variations in the integral sea ice volume in the Greenland Sea and oceanic processes. We link the changes in the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) regional sea ice volume with the mixed layer, depth and upper-ocean heat content derived using the ARMOR dataset.
Chao Min, Longjiang Mu, Qinghua Yang, Robert Ricker, Qian Shi, Bo Han, Renhao Wu, and Jiping Liu
The Cryosphere, 13, 3209–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3209-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait has been studied using varied methods, however, mostly in winter months. Here we report sea ice volume estimates that extend over summer seasons. A recent developed sea ice thickness dataset, in which CryoSat-2 and SMOS sea ice thickness together with SSMI/SSMIS sea ice concentration are assimilated, is used and evaluated in the paper. Results show our estimate is more reasonable than that calculated by satellite data only.
M. Jeffrey Mei, Ted Maksym, Blake Weissling, and Hanumant Singh
The Cryosphere, 13, 2915–2934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2915-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2915-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice thickness is hard to measure directly, and current datasets are very limited to sporadically conducted drill lines. However, surface elevation is much easier to measure. Converting surface elevation to ice thickness requires making assumptions about snow depth and density, which leads to large errors (and may not generalize to new datasets). A deep learning method is presented that uses the surface morphology as a direct predictor of sea ice thickness, with testing errors of < 20 %.
Pierre Rampal, Véronique Dansereau, Einar Olason, Sylvain Bouillon, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, and Abdoulaye Samaké
The Cryosphere, 13, 2457–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we look at how the Arctic sea ice cover, as a solid body, behaves on different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the numerical model neXtSIM uses a new approach to simulate the mechanics of sea ice and reproduce the characteristics of how sea ice deforms, as observed by satellite. We discuss the importance of this model performance in the context of simulating climate processes taking place in polar regions, like the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere.
Alberto Alberello, Miguel Onorato, Luke Bennetts, Marcello Vichi, Clare Eayrs, Keith MacHutchon, and Alessandro Toffoli
The Cryosphere, 13, 41–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Existing observations do not provide quantitative descriptions of the floe size distribution for pancake ice floes. This is important during the Antarctic winter sea ice expansion, when hundreds of kilometres of ice cover around the Antarctic continent are composed of pancake floes (D = 0.3–3 m). Here, a new set of images from the Antarctic marginal ice zone is used to measure the shape of individual pancakes for the first time and to infer their size distribution.
Frédéric Laliberté, Stephen E. L. Howell, Jean-François Lemieux, Frédéric Dupont, and Ji Lei
The Cryosphere, 12, 3577–3588, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice that forms over marginal seas often gets anchored and becomes landfast. Landfast ice is fundamental to the local ecosystems, is of economic importance as it leads to hazardous seafaring conditions and is also a choice hunting ground for both the local population and large predators. Using observations and climate simulations, this study shows that, especially in the Canadian Arctic, landfast ice might be more resilient to climate change than is generally thought.
Iina Ronkainen, Jonni Lehtiranta, Mikko Lensu, Eero Rinne, Jari Haapala, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 12, 3459–3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3459-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the sea ice thickness variability in the Bay of Bothnia using various observational data sets. For the first time we use helicopter and shipborne electromagnetic soundings to study changes in drift ice of the Bay of Bothnia. Our results show that the interannual variability of ice thickness is larger in the drift ice zone than in the fast ice zone. Furthermore, the mean thickness of heavily ridged ice near the coast can be several times larger than that of fast ice.
Edward W. Blockley and K. Andrew Peterson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3419–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea-ice prediction on seasonal time scales is becoming increasingly more relevant to society but the predictive capability of forecasting systems is low. Several studies suggest initialization of sea-ice thickness (SIT) could improve the skill of seasonal prediction systems. Here for the first time we test the impact of SIT initialization in the Met Office's GloSea coupled prediction system using CryoSat-2 data. We show significant improvements to Arctic extent and ice edge location.
Cited articles
Andersson, T. R., Hosking, J. S., Perez-Ortiz, M., Paige, B., Elliott, A.,
Russell, C., Law, S., Jones, D. C., Wilkinson, J., Phillips, T., Byrne, J.,
Tietsche, S., Sarojini, B. B., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Aksenov, Y.,
Downie, R., and Shuckburgh, E.: Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with
probabilistic deep learning, Nat. Commun., 12, 5124,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25257-4, 2021.
Barnston, A. G. and Ropelewski, C. F.: Prediction of ENSO Episodes Using
Canonical Correlation Analysis, J. Climate, 5, 1316–1345,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<1316:poeeuc>2.0.co;2, 1992.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M., and DeWeaver, E.:
Persistence and Inherent Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a GCM Ensemble
and Observations, J. Climate, 24, 231–250,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3775.1, 2011.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Cullather, R., Wang, W., Zhang, J., and Bitz,
C.: Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the
seasonal Sea Ice Outlook, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8042–8048,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065860, 2015.
Blockley, E. W. and Peterson, K. A.: Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness, The Cryosphere, 12, 3419–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018, 2018.
Bushuk, M. and Giannakis, D.: The Seasonality and Interannual Variability of
Arctic Sea Ice Reemergence, J. Climate, 30, 4657–4676,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0549.1, 2017.
Bushuk, M., Msadek, R., Winton, M., Vecchi, G. A., Gudgel, R., Rosati, A.,
and Yang, X.: Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal
timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 4953–4964,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073155, 2017a.
Bushuk, M., Msadek, R., Winton, M., Vecchi, G. A., Gudgel, R., Rosati, A.,
and Yang, X.: Summer Enhancement of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomalies in the
September-Ice Zone, J. Climate, 30, 2341–2362,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0470.1, 2017b.
Bushuk, M., Msadek, R., Winton, M., Vecchi, G., Yang, X., Rosati, A., and
Gudgel, R.: Regional Arctic sea-ice prediction: potential versus operational
seasonal forecast skill, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2721–2743,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4288-y, 2019.
Bushuk, M., Winton, M., Bonan, D. B., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., and
Delworth, T. L.: A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability
Barrier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088335, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088335,
2020.
Bushuk, M., Winton, M., Haumann, F. A., Delworth, T., Lu, F., Zhang, Y.,
Jia, L., Zhang, L., Cooke, W., Harrison, M., Hurlin, B., Johnson, N. C.,
Kapnick, S. B., McHugh, C., Murakami, H., Rosati, A., Tseng, K.-C.,
Wittenberg, A. T., Yang, X., and Zeng, F.: Seasonal Prediction and
Predictability of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice, J. Climate, 34, 6207–6233,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0965.1, 2021.
Cañizares, R., Kaplan, A., Cane, M. A., Chen, D., and Zebiak, S. E.: Use
of data assimilation via linear low-order models for the initialization of
El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 106, 30947–30959, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000622,
2001.
Chen, D. and Yuan, X.: A Markov model for seasonal forecast of Antarctic sea
ice, J. Climate, 17, 3156–3168,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3156:AMMFSF>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Chen, T. C.: The structure and maintenance of stationary waves in the winter
Northern Hemisphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3637–3660,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jas3566.1, 2005.
Cheng, W., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bitz, C. M., Ladd, C., and Stabeno,
P. J.: Diagnostic sea ice predictability in the pan-Arctic and US Arctic
regional seas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 11688–11696,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070735, 2016.
Chi, J. and Kim, H.-C.: Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a
Fully Data Driven Deep Neural Network, Remote Sensing, 9, 1305,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9121305, 2017.
Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J.,
Ballinger, T., Bhatt, U., Chen, H., and Coumou, D.: Divergent consensuses on
Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather, Nat.
Clim. Change, 10, 20–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y, 2020.
Comiso, J. C.: Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP
SSM/I-SSMIS, Version 3, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed
Active Archive Center [data set], Boulder, Colorado USA, https://doi.org/10.5067/7Q8HCCWS4I0R, 2017.
Dai, P., Gao, Y., Counillon, F., Wang, Y., Kimmritz, M., and Langehaug, H.
R.: Seasonal to decadal predictions of regional Arctic sea ice by
assimilating sea surface temperature in the Norwegian Climate Prediction
Model, Clim. Dynam., 54, 3863–3878, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05196-4,
2020.
Day, J. J., Hawkins, E., and Tietsche, S.: Will Arctic sea ice thickness
initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41,
7566–7575, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061694, 2014a.
Day, J. J., Tietsche, S., and Hawkins, E.: Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice
Predictability: Initialization Month Dependence, J. Climate, 27, 4371–4390,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1, 2014b.
Deser, C., Tomas, R., Alexander, M., and Lawrence, D.: The seasonal
atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late
twenty-first century, J. Climate, 23, 333–351,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1, 2010.
Francis, J. A. and Vavrus, S. J.: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to
extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 20140170,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012.
Frankignoul, C., Sennechael, N., and Cauchy, P.: Observed Atmospheric
Response to Cold Season Sea Ice Variability in the Arctic, J. Climate, 27,
1243–1254, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00189.1, 2014.
Gregory, W., Tsamados, M., Stroeve, J., and Sollich, P.: Regional September
Sea Ice Forecasting with Complex Networks and Gaussian Processes, Weather
Forecast., 35, 793–806, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0107.1, 2020.
Guemas, V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J.,
Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fučkar, N. S., Germe, A.,
Hawkins, E., and Keeley, S.: A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and
prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 546–561,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2401, 2016a.
Guemas, V., Chevallier, M., Deque, M., Bellprat, O., and Doblas-Reyes, F.:
Impact of sea ice initialization on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill
on seasonal timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3889–3896,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066626, 2016b.
Hamilton, L. C. and Stroeve, J.: 400 predictions: The search sea ice outlook
2008–2015, Polar Geogr., 39, 274–287,
https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2016.1234518, 2016.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., and Schepers, D.:
The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Horvath, S., Stroeve, J., Rajagopalan, B., and Kleiber, W.: A Bayesian
Logistic Regression for Probabilistic Forecasts of the Minimum September
Arctic Sea Ice Cover, Earth Space Sci., 7,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ea001176, 2020.
Horvath, S., Stroeve, J., and Rajagopalan, B.: A linear mixed effects model
for seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat, Polar Geogr., 44,
297–314, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2021.1987999, 2021.
Huang, Y., Dong, X., Xi, B., Dolinar, E. K., and Stanfield, R. E.:
Quantifying the Uncertainties of Reanalyzed Arctic Cloud and Radiation
Properties using Satellite-surface Observations, Clim. Dynam., 30, 8007–8029,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0722.1, 2015.
Kapsch, M. L., Graversen, R. G., and Tjernström, M.: Springtime
atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice
extent, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 744–748,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1884, 2013.
Kim, K.-Y., Hamlington, B. D., Na, H., and Kim, J.: Mechanism of seasonal Arctic sea ice evolution and Arctic amplification, The Cryosphere, 10, 2191–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2191-2016, 2016.
Kimmritz, M., Counillon, F., Smedsrud, L. H., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N.,
Ogawa, F., and Wang, Y.: Impact of Ocean and Sea Ice Initialisation On
Seasonal Prediction Skill in the Arctic, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Sy., 11, 4147–4166, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001825, 2019.
Koenigk, T., Caian, M., Nikulin, G., and Schimanke, S.: Regional Arctic sea
ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions, Clim. Dynam., 46,
317–337, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2586-1, 2016.
Lee, S., Gong, T., Feldstein, S. B., Screen, J. A., and Simmonds, I.:
Revisiting the Cause of the 1989–2009 Arctic Surface Warming Using the
Surface Energy Budget: Downward Infrared Radiation Dominates the Surface
Fluxes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10654–10661,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075375, 2017.
Lenetsky, J. E., Tremblay, B., Brunette, C., and Meneghello, G.: Subseasonal
Predictability of Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Conditions: Bering Strait and
Ekman-Driven Ocean Heat Transport, J. Climate, 34, 4449–4462,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0544.1, 2021.
Lindsay, R., Zhang, J., Schweiger, A., and Steele, M.: Seasonal predictions
of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
113, C02023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004259, 2008.
Liu, Y. and Key, J. R.: Less winter cloud aids summer 2013 Arctic sea ice
return from 2012 minimum, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044002,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044002, 2014.
Luo, B., Luo, D., Wu, L., Zhong, L., and Simmonds, I.: Atmospheric
circulation patterns which promote winter Arctic sea ice decline,
Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa69d0, 2017.
Meleshko, V., Kattsov, V., Mirvis, V., Baidin, A., Pavlova, T., and
Govorkova, V.: Is there a link between Arctic sea ice loss and increasing
frequency of extremely cold winters in Eurasia and North America? Synthesis
of current research, Russ. Meteorol. Hydro., 43, 743–755,
https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373918110055, 2018.
Morioka, Y., Iovino, D., Cipollone, A., Masina, S., and Behera, S.:
Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice
thickness initialization, Sci. Rep., 11, 11475,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91042-4, 2021.
Msadek, R., Vecchi, G. A., Winton, M., and Gudgel, R. G.: Importance of
initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5208–5215, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl060799,
2014.
Peterson, A. K., Fer, I., McPhee, M. G., and Randelhoff, A.: Turbulent heat
and momentum fluxes in the upper ocean under Arctic sea ice, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 1439–1456,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012283, 2017.
Peterson, K. A., Arribas, A., Hewitt, H., Keen, A., Lea, D., and McLaren,
A.: Assessing the forecast skill of Arctic sea ice extent in the GloSea4
seasonal prediction system, Clim. Dynam., 44, 147–162,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2190-9, 2015.
Petty, A., Schröder, D., Stroeve, J., Markus, T., Miller, J., Kurtz, N.,
Feltham, D., and Flocco, D.: Skillful spring forecasts of September Arctic
sea ice extent using passive microwave sea ice observations, Earth's Future,
5, 254–263, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000495, 2017.
Porter, D. F., Cassano, J. J., and Serreze, M. C.: Analysis of the Arctic
atmospheric energy budget in WRF: A comparison with reanalyses and satellite
observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D22108,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016622, 2011.
Schweiger, A., Lindsay, R., Zhang, J., Steele, M., Stern, H., and Kwok, R.:
Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 116, C00D06, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007084, 2011.
Screen, J. A. and Francis, J. A.: Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic
amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability, Nat.
Clim. Change, 6, 856–860, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3011, 2016.
Screen, J. A., Simmonds, I., Deser, C., and Tomas, R.: The atmospheric
response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss, J. Climate, 26,
1230–1248, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1, 2013.
Sévellec, F., Fedorov, A. V., and Liu, W.: Arctic sea-ice decline
weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nat. Clim.
Change, 7, 604–610, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3353, 2017.
Sigmond, M., Fyfe, J. C., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., and Merryfield, W.
J.: Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast
system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 529–534, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50129,
2013.
Smith, D. M., Dunstone, N. J., Scaife, A. A., Fiedler, E. K., Copsey, D.,
and Hardiman, S. C.: Atmospheric response to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice:
The importance of ocean–atmosphere coupling and the background state, J.
Climate, 30, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0100.1, 2017.
Smith, L. C. and Stephenson, S. R.: New Trans-Arctic shipping routes
navigable by midcentury, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
110, E1191–E1195, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214212110, 2013.
Swart, N.: Natural causes of Arctic sea-ice loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 7,
239–241, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3254, 2017.
Tian, T., Yang, S., Karami, M. P., Massonnet, F., Kruschke, T., and Koenigk, T.: Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, 2021.
Ting, M. F.: maintenance of northern summer stationary waves in a GCM,
J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3286–3308,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<3286:monssw>2.0.co;2, 1994.
Wang, L., Yuan, X., Ting, M., and Li, C.: Predicting summer Arctic sea ice
concentration intraseasonal variability using a vector autoregressive model,
J. Climate, 29, 1529–1543, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0313.1, 2016.
Wang, L., Scott, K. A., and Clausi, D. A.: Sea ice concentration estimation
during freeze-up from SAR imagery using a convolutional neural network,
Remote Sensing, 9, 408, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9050408, 2017.
Wang, L., Yuan, X., and Li, C.: Subseasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice
concentration via statistical approaches, Clim. Dynam., 52, 4953–4971,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4426-6, 2019.
Wang, Y. and Yuan, X.: Reassessing seasonal sea ice predictability of the Pacific-Arctic sector using a Markov model: supplemental data, Academic Commons [data set], https://doi.org/10.7916/4kpg-6904, 2022.
Wang, Y., Yuan, X., Bi, H., Liang, Y., Huang, H., Zhang, Z., and Liu, Y.:
The Contributions of Winter Cloud Anomalies in 2011 to the Summer Sea-Ice
Rebound in 2012 in the Antarctic, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 3435–3447, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029435, 2019.
Wu, B., Wang, J., and Walsh, J. E.: Dipole Anomaly in the Winter Arctic
Atmosphere and Its Association with Sea Ice Motion, J. Climate, 19, 210–225,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3619.1, 2006.
Wu, Q., Yan, Y., and Chen, D.: A linear Markov model for East Asian monsoon
seasonal forecast, J. Climate, 26, 5183–5195,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00408.1, 2013.
Wu, Q., Cheng, L., Chan, D., Yao, Y., Hu, H., and Yao, Y.: Suppressed
midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during
1979–2012, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2792–2800,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068059, 2016.
Xie, J., Counillon, F., Bertino, L., Tian-Kunze, X., and Kaleschke, L.: Benefits of assimilating thin sea ice thickness from SMOS into the TOPAZ system, The Cryosphere, 10, 2745–2761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2745-2016, 2016.
Xue, Y., Leetmaa, A., and Ji, M.: ENSO prediction with Markov models: The
impact of sea level, J. Climate, 13, 849–871,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013, 2000.
Yuan, X., Chen, D., Li, C., Wang, L., and Wang, W.: Arctic sea ice seasonal
prediction by a linear Markov model, J. Climate, 29, 8151–8173,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0858.1, 2016.
Zhang, J. L. and Rothrock, D. A.: Modeling global sea ice with a thickness
and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates,
MWRv, 131, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0845:mgsiwa>2.0.co;2, 2003.
Zuo, H., Balmaseda, M. A., Tietsche, S., Mogensen, K., and Mayer, M.: The ECMWF operational ensemble reanalysis–analysis system for ocean and sea ice: a description of the system and assessment, Ocean Sci., 15, 779–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-779-2019, 2019.
Short summary
We develop a regional linear Markov model consisting of four modules with seasonally dependent variables in the Pacific sector. The model retains skill for detrended sea ice extent predictions for up to 7-month lead times in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. The prediction skill, as measured by the percentage of grid points with significant correlations (PGS), increased by 75 % in the Bering Sea and 16 % in the Sea of Okhotsk relative to the earlier pan-Arctic model.
We develop a regional linear Markov model consisting of four modules with seasonally dependent...
