Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020
Research article
 | 
23 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 23 Dec 2020

Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections

Tessa Gorte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley

Related authors

Antarctic surface climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model version 2 during the satellite era and into the future (1979–2100)
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 2263–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Satellite data reveal details of glacial isostatic adjustment in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Matthias O. Willen, Bert Wouters, Taco Broerse, Eric Buchta, and Veit Helm
The Cryosphere, 19, 2213–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025, 2025
Short summary
Review article: Feature tracing in radio-echo sounding products of terrestrial ice sheets and planetary bodies
Hameed Moqadam and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2159–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2159-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2159-2025, 2025
Short summary
Viscoelastic mechanics of tidally induced lake drainage in the grounding zone
Hanwen Zhang, Richard F. Katz, and Laura A. Stevens
The Cryosphere, 19, 2087–2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2087-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2087-2025, 2025
Short summary
A facet-based numerical model to retrieve ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry
Jérémie Aublanc, François Boy, Franck Borde, and Pierre Féménias
The Cryosphere, 19, 1937–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1937-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1937-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Agosta, C., Fettweis, X., and Datta, R.: Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, The Cryosphere, 9, 2311–2321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, 2015. a
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a, b, c
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Beaumet, J., Déqué, M., Krinner, G., Agosta, C., and Alias, A.: Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model, The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019. a
Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., and Monaghan, A. J.: An Assessment of precipitation changes over antarctica and the southern ocean since 1989 in contemporary global reanalyses, J. Climate, 24, 4189–4209, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4074.1, 2011. a
Download
Short summary
In this paper, we analyze several spatial and temporal criteria to assess the ability of models in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks to recreate past Antarctic surface mass balance. We then compared a subset of the top performing models to all remaining models to refine future surface mass balance predictions under different forcing scenarios. We found that the top performing models predict lower surface mass balance by 2100, indicating less buffering than otherwise expected of sea level rise.
Share