Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020

Research article 05 Feb 2020

Research article | 05 Feb 2020

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Christian G. Andresen et al.

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Cited articles

Aas, K. S., Martin, L., Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Boike, J., Lee, H., Berntsen, T. K., and Westermann, S.: Thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes represented with laterally coupled tiles in a land surface model, The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019. 
Abolt, C. J., Young, M. H., Atchley, A. L., and Harp, D. R.: Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons, The Cryosphere, 12, 1957–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1957-2018, 2018. 
Andresen, C. G. and Lougheed, V. L.: Disappearing arctic tundra ponds: Fine-scale analysis of surface hydrology in drained thaw lake basins over a 65 year period (1948–2013), J. Geophys. Res., 120, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002778, 2015. 
Andresen, C. G., Lara, M. J., Tweedie, C. T., and Lougheed, V. L.: Rising plant-mediated methane emissions from arctic wetlands, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 1128–1139, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13469, 2017. 
Avis, C. A., Weaver, A. J., and Meissner, K. J.: Reduction in areal extent of high-latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw, Nat. Geosci., 4, 444–448, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1160, 2011. 
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Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.