Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison
Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison,
Wisconsin, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
David M. Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Cathy J. Wilson
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
A. David McGuire
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Charles Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
Kevin Schaefer
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Elchin Jafarov
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
Shushi Peng
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique
de l'Environnement (LGGE), Université Grenoble Alps and CNRS, Grenoble, France
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100871, China
Xiaodong Chen
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Isabelle Gouttevin
IRSTEA-HHLY, Lyon, France
IRSTEA-ETNA, Grenoble, France
Eleanor Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Sarah Chadburn
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Duoying Ji
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
Guangsheng Chen
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Daniel Hayes
School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Maine, USA
Wenxin Zhang
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Lund, Sweden
Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and
Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Cited
94 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Frozen no more, a case study of Arctic permafrost impacts of oil and gas withdrawal K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-76292-2
- Ecohydrological modelling in a deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for application in non‐stationary climates A. Marshall et al. 10.1002/hyp.14251
- The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons E. Jafarov et al. 10.5194/tc-16-851-2022
- Controls over Fire Characteristics in Siberian Larch Forests E. Webb et al. 10.1007/s10021-024-00927-8
- Reviews and syntheses: Recent advances in microwave remote sensing in support of terrestrial carbon cycle science in Arctic–boreal regions A. Mavrovic et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023
- Influence of Tundra Polygon Type and Climate Variability on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes Near Utqiagvik, Alaska S. Dengel et al. 10.1029/2021JG006262
- Radiation, soil water content, and temperature effects on carbon cycling in an alpine swamp meadow of the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau J. Wei et al. 10.5194/bg-19-861-2022
- Modelling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting rates in frozen rock clefts A. Sedaghatkish et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024
- Spatial Estimates of Soil Moisture for Understanding Ecological Potential and Risk: A Case Study for Arid and Semi-Arid Ecosystems M. O’Donnell & D. Manier 10.3390/land11101856
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Hydrological Impact of the New ECMWF Multi-Layer Snow Scheme E. Zsoter et al. 10.3390/atmos13050727
- Dendroclimatic studies of Larix cajanderi Mayr. in the Omoloy River Basin A. Kolmogorov et al. 10.31242/2618-9712-2023-28-4-584-594
- Effects of land surface model resolution on fluxes and soil state in the Arctic M. Schickhoff et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6019
- Deforestation for agriculture leads to soil warming and enhanced litter decomposition in subarctic soils T. Peplau et al. 10.5194/bg-20-1063-2023
- Radium Inputs Into the Arctic Ocean From Rivers: A Basin‐Wide Estimate E. Bullock et al. 10.1029/2022JC018964
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016 Y. Wang et al. 10.5194/essd-13-4385-2021
- Review article: Terrestrial dissolved organic carbon in northern permafrost L. Heffernan et al. 10.5194/tc-18-1443-2024
- Degradation of ice-wedge polygons leads to increased fluxes of water and DOC N. Speetjens et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170931
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Pervasive Permafrost Thaw Exacerbates Future Risk of Water Shortage Across the Tibetan Plateau T. Wang et al. 10.1029/2022EF003463
- Cambio climático: ciencia, política y más G. Gamboa Bernal 10.5294/pebi.2021.25.1.1
- Nitrogen transport in a tundra landscape: the effects of early and late growing season lateral N inputs on arctic soil and plant N pools and N2O fluxes L. Rasmussen et al. 10.1007/s10533-021-00855-y
- Климатический отклик радиального прироста Larix cajanderi в Северной и Центральной Якутии К. Хоцинская et al. 10.55959/MSU0137-0952-16-79-2-6
- Arctic aquatic graminoid tundra responses to nutrient availability C. Andresen & V. Lougheed 10.5194/bg-18-2649-2021
- Trade-offs Between Wood and Leaf Production in Arctic Shrubs Along a Temperature and Moisture Gradient in West Greenland R. Higgens et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00541-4
- Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing J. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00415-1
- Influence of Snowpack Cold Content on Seasonally Frozen Ground and Its Hydrologic Consequences: A Case Study From Niwot Ridge, CO M. Rush & H. Rajaram 10.1029/2021WR031911
- Thawing permafrost can mitigate warming-induced drought stress in boreal forest trees A. Kirdyanov et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168858
- Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/soil-10-1-2024
- Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures M. Debolskiy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3
- Inferring Permafrost Active Layer Thermal Properties From Numerical Model Optimization J. de Bruin et al. 10.1029/2021GL093306
- Soil Organic Carbon Distribution and its Controlling Factors in a Non-Continuous Permafrost Zone in Northeastern China M. Yu et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4194708
- Divergent shrub‐cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems Y. Chen et al. 10.1111/gcb.15451
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Permafrost table temperature and active layer thickness variability on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2004–2021 L. Kaplan Pastíriková et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161690
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
- Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw I. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51471-x
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Quantification of Water Released by Thawing Permafrost in the Source Region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau by InSAR Monitoring L. Wang et al. 10.1029/2023WR034451
- Environmental factors controlling soil warming and wetting during 2000–2020 in permafrost and non-permafrost regions across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.004
- First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/esd-15-547-2024
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al. 10.1029/2020WR027463
- Increasing annual and extreme precipitation in permafrost-dominated Siberia during 1959–2018 P. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126865
- The imbalance of the Asian water tower T. Yao et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
- Quantitative Separation of Precipitation and Permafrost Waters Used for Evapotranspiration in a Boreal Forest: A Numerical Study Using Tracer Model H. Park et al. 10.1029/2021JG006645
- Ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon detects old carbon release as a fingerprint of warming and permafrost destabilization with climate change E. Schuur et al. 10.1098/rsta.2022.0201
- Seasonal Changes in Hydrology and Permafrost Degradation Control Mineral Element‐Bound DOC Transport From Permafrost Soils to Streams C. Hirst et al. 10.1029/2021GB007105
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Contribution of water rejuvenation induced by climate warming to evapotranspiration in a Siberian boreal forest H. Park et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.1037668
- Leveraging Soil Moisture Assimilation in Permafrost Affected Regions A. Pradhan et al. 10.3390/rs15061532
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- Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying C. Arendt et al. 10.3390/nitrogen3020021
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- Convection in the active layer speeds up permafrost thaw in coarse-grained soils M. Magnani et al. 10.1103/PhysRevFluids.9.L081501
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- Permafrost thaw drives surface water decline across lake-rich regions of the Arctic E. Webb et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01455-w
- A new 2010 permafrost distribution map over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on subregion survey maps: a benchmark for regional permafrost modeling Z. Cao et al. 10.5194/essd-15-3905-2023
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- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response N. Steinert et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Recent advances in integrated hydrologic models: Integration of new domains A. Brookfield et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129515
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- Degrading permafrost river catchments and their impact on Arctic Ocean nearshore processes P. Mann et al. 10.1007/s13280-021-01666-z
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- Thermokarst lakes group accelerates permafrost degradation in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China: A modeling study X. Ke et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130072
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- Evaluating soil moisture retrieval in Arctic and sub-Arctic environments using passive microwave satellite data J. Ortet et al. 10.1080/17538947.2024.2385079
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- A boreal forest model benchmarking dataset for North America: a case study with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) B. Qu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ace376
- Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds A. Gädeke et al. 10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2
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- Water Migration and Segregated Ice Formation in Frozen Ground: Current Advances and Future Perspectives Z. Fu et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.826961
91 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Frozen no more, a case study of Arctic permafrost impacts of oil and gas withdrawal K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-76292-2
- Ecohydrological modelling in a deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for application in non‐stationary climates A. Marshall et al. 10.1002/hyp.14251
- The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons E. Jafarov et al. 10.5194/tc-16-851-2022
- Controls over Fire Characteristics in Siberian Larch Forests E. Webb et al. 10.1007/s10021-024-00927-8
- Reviews and syntheses: Recent advances in microwave remote sensing in support of terrestrial carbon cycle science in Arctic–boreal regions A. Mavrovic et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023
- Influence of Tundra Polygon Type and Climate Variability on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes Near Utqiagvik, Alaska S. Dengel et al. 10.1029/2021JG006262
- Radiation, soil water content, and temperature effects on carbon cycling in an alpine swamp meadow of the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau J. Wei et al. 10.5194/bg-19-861-2022
- Modelling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting rates in frozen rock clefts A. Sedaghatkish et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024
- Spatial Estimates of Soil Moisture for Understanding Ecological Potential and Risk: A Case Study for Arid and Semi-Arid Ecosystems M. O’Donnell & D. Manier 10.3390/land11101856
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Hydrological Impact of the New ECMWF Multi-Layer Snow Scheme E. Zsoter et al. 10.3390/atmos13050727
- Dendroclimatic studies of Larix cajanderi Mayr. in the Omoloy River Basin A. Kolmogorov et al. 10.31242/2618-9712-2023-28-4-584-594
- Effects of land surface model resolution on fluxes and soil state in the Arctic M. Schickhoff et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6019
- Deforestation for agriculture leads to soil warming and enhanced litter decomposition in subarctic soils T. Peplau et al. 10.5194/bg-20-1063-2023
- Radium Inputs Into the Arctic Ocean From Rivers: A Basin‐Wide Estimate E. Bullock et al. 10.1029/2022JC018964
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016 Y. Wang et al. 10.5194/essd-13-4385-2021
- Review article: Terrestrial dissolved organic carbon in northern permafrost L. Heffernan et al. 10.5194/tc-18-1443-2024
- Degradation of ice-wedge polygons leads to increased fluxes of water and DOC N. Speetjens et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170931
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Pervasive Permafrost Thaw Exacerbates Future Risk of Water Shortage Across the Tibetan Plateau T. Wang et al. 10.1029/2022EF003463
- Cambio climático: ciencia, política y más G. Gamboa Bernal 10.5294/pebi.2021.25.1.1
- Nitrogen transport in a tundra landscape: the effects of early and late growing season lateral N inputs on arctic soil and plant N pools and N2O fluxes L. Rasmussen et al. 10.1007/s10533-021-00855-y
- Климатический отклик радиального прироста Larix cajanderi в Северной и Центральной Якутии К. Хоцинская et al. 10.55959/MSU0137-0952-16-79-2-6
- Arctic aquatic graminoid tundra responses to nutrient availability C. Andresen & V. Lougheed 10.5194/bg-18-2649-2021
- Trade-offs Between Wood and Leaf Production in Arctic Shrubs Along a Temperature and Moisture Gradient in West Greenland R. Higgens et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00541-4
- Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing J. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00415-1
- Influence of Snowpack Cold Content on Seasonally Frozen Ground and Its Hydrologic Consequences: A Case Study From Niwot Ridge, CO M. Rush & H. Rajaram 10.1029/2021WR031911
- Thawing permafrost can mitigate warming-induced drought stress in boreal forest trees A. Kirdyanov et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168858
- Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/soil-10-1-2024
- Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures M. Debolskiy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3
- Inferring Permafrost Active Layer Thermal Properties From Numerical Model Optimization J. de Bruin et al. 10.1029/2021GL093306
- Soil Organic Carbon Distribution and its Controlling Factors in a Non-Continuous Permafrost Zone in Northeastern China M. Yu et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4194708
- Divergent shrub‐cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems Y. Chen et al. 10.1111/gcb.15451
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Permafrost table temperature and active layer thickness variability on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2004–2021 L. Kaplan Pastíriková et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161690
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
- Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw I. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51471-x
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Quantification of Water Released by Thawing Permafrost in the Source Region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau by InSAR Monitoring L. Wang et al. 10.1029/2023WR034451
- Environmental factors controlling soil warming and wetting during 2000–2020 in permafrost and non-permafrost regions across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.004
- First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/esd-15-547-2024
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al. 10.1029/2020WR027463
- Increasing annual and extreme precipitation in permafrost-dominated Siberia during 1959–2018 P. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126865
- The imbalance of the Asian water tower T. Yao et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
- Quantitative Separation of Precipitation and Permafrost Waters Used for Evapotranspiration in a Boreal Forest: A Numerical Study Using Tracer Model H. Park et al. 10.1029/2021JG006645
- Ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon detects old carbon release as a fingerprint of warming and permafrost destabilization with climate change E. Schuur et al. 10.1098/rsta.2022.0201
- Seasonal Changes in Hydrology and Permafrost Degradation Control Mineral Element‐Bound DOC Transport From Permafrost Soils to Streams C. Hirst et al. 10.1029/2021GB007105
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Latest update: 14 Nov 2024
Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases...