Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison
Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison,
Wisconsin, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
David M. Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Cathy J. Wilson
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
A. David McGuire
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Charles Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
Kevin Schaefer
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Elchin Jafarov
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
Shushi Peng
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique
de l'Environnement (LGGE), Université Grenoble Alps and CNRS, Grenoble, France
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100871, China
Xiaodong Chen
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Isabelle Gouttevin
IRSTEA-HHLY, Lyon, France
IRSTEA-ETNA, Grenoble, France
Eleanor Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Sarah Chadburn
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Duoying Ji
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
Guangsheng Chen
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Daniel Hayes
School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Maine, USA
Wenxin Zhang
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Lund, Sweden
Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and
Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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96 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
- Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Frozen no more, a case study of Arctic permafrost impacts of oil and gas withdrawal K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-76292-2
- Ecohydrological modelling in a deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for application in non‐stationary climates A. Marshall et al. 10.1002/hyp.14251
- The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons E. Jafarov et al. 10.5194/tc-16-851-2022
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- Radiation, soil water content, and temperature effects on carbon cycling in an alpine swamp meadow of the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau J. Wei et al. 10.5194/bg-19-861-2022
- Modelling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting rates in frozen rock clefts A. Sedaghatkish et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024
- Spatial Estimates of Soil Moisture for Understanding Ecological Potential and Risk: A Case Study for Arid and Semi-Arid Ecosystems M. O’Donnell & D. Manier 10.3390/land11101856
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Hydrological Impact of the New ECMWF Multi-Layer Snow Scheme E. Zsoter et al. 10.3390/atmos13050727
- Dendroclimatic studies of Larix cajanderi Mayr. in the Omoloy River Basin A. Kolmogorov et al. 10.31242/2618-9712-2023-28-4-584-594
- Effects of land surface model resolution on fluxes and soil state in the Arctic M. Schickhoff et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6019
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- Radium Inputs Into the Arctic Ocean From Rivers: A Basin‐Wide Estimate E. Bullock et al. 10.1029/2022JC018964
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- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Permafrost table temperature and active layer thickness variability on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2004–2021 L. Kaplan Pastíriková et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161690
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
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- Environmental factors controlling soil warming and wetting during 2000–2020 in permafrost and non-permafrost regions across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.004
- First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/esd-15-547-2024
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- Quantitative Separation of Precipitation and Permafrost Waters Used for Evapotranspiration in a Boreal Forest: A Numerical Study Using Tracer Model H. Park et al. 10.1029/2021JG006645
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93 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
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- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
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- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
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- Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016 Y. Wang et al. 10.5194/essd-13-4385-2021
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- Pervasive Permafrost Thaw Exacerbates Future Risk of Water Shortage Across the Tibetan Plateau T. Wang et al. 10.1029/2022EF003463
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- Thawing permafrost can mitigate warming-induced drought stress in boreal forest trees A. Kirdyanov et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168858
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- Inferring Permafrost Active Layer Thermal Properties From Numerical Model Optimization J. de Bruin et al. 10.1029/2021GL093306
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- Divergent shrub‐cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems Y. Chen et al. 10.1111/gcb.15451
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Permafrost table temperature and active layer thickness variability on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2004–2021 L. Kaplan Pastíriková et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161690
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
- Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw I. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51471-x
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Quantification of Water Released by Thawing Permafrost in the Source Region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau by InSAR Monitoring L. Wang et al. 10.1029/2023WR034451
- Environmental factors controlling soil warming and wetting during 2000–2020 in permafrost and non-permafrost regions across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.004
- First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources F. García-Pereira et al. 10.5194/esd-15-547-2024
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al. 10.1029/2020WR027463
- Increasing annual and extreme precipitation in permafrost-dominated Siberia during 1959–2018 P. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126865
- The imbalance of the Asian water tower T. Yao et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
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Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases...