Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison
Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison,
Wisconsin, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
David M. Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Cathy J. Wilson
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
A. David McGuire
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Charles Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
Kevin Schaefer
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Elchin Jafarov
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
Shushi Peng
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique
de l'Environnement (LGGE), Université Grenoble Alps and CNRS, Grenoble, France
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100871, China
Xiaodong Chen
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Isabelle Gouttevin
IRSTEA-HHLY, Lyon, France
IRSTEA-ETNA, Grenoble, France
Eleanor Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Sarah Chadburn
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Duoying Ji
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
Guangsheng Chen
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Daniel Hayes
School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Maine, USA
Wenxin Zhang
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Lund, Sweden
Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and
Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Cited
69 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Ecohydrological modelling in a deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for application in non‐stationary climates A. Marshall et al. 10.1002/hyp.14251
- The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons E. Jafarov et al. 10.5194/tc-16-851-2022
- Reviews and syntheses: Recent advances in microwave remote sensing in support of terrestrial carbon cycle science in Arctic–boreal regions A. Mavrovic et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023
- Influence of Tundra Polygon Type and Climate Variability on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes Near Utqiagvik, Alaska S. Dengel et al. 10.1029/2021JG006262
- Radiation, soil water content, and temperature effects on carbon cycling in an alpine swamp meadow of the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau J. Wei et al. 10.5194/bg-19-861-2022
- Spatial Estimates of Soil Moisture for Understanding Ecological Potential and Risk: A Case Study for Arid and Semi-Arid Ecosystems M. O’Donnell & D. Manier 10.3390/land11101856
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Hydrological Impact of the New ECMWF Multi-Layer Snow Scheme E. Zsoter et al. 10.3390/atmos13050727
- Deforestation for agriculture leads to soil warming and enhanced litter decomposition in subarctic soils T. Peplau et al. 10.5194/bg-20-1063-2023
- Radium Inputs Into the Arctic Ocean From Rivers: A Basin‐Wide Estimate E. Bullock et al. 10.1029/2022JC018964
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016 Y. Wang et al. 10.5194/essd-13-4385-2021
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Cambio climático: ciencia, política y más G. Gamboa Bernal 10.5294/pebi.2021.25.1.1
- Nitrogen transport in a tundra landscape: the effects of early and late growing season lateral N inputs on arctic soil and plant N pools and N2O fluxes L. Rasmussen et al. 10.1007/s10533-021-00855-y
- Arctic aquatic graminoid tundra responses to nutrient availability C. Andresen & V. Lougheed 10.5194/bg-18-2649-2021
- Trade-offs Between Wood and Leaf Production in Arctic Shrubs Along a Temperature and Moisture Gradient in West Greenland R. Higgens et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00541-4
- Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing J. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00415-1
- Influence of Snowpack Cold Content on Seasonally Frozen Ground and Its Hydrologic Consequences: A Case Study From Niwot Ridge, CO M. Rush & H. Rajaram 10.1029/2021WR031911
- Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures M. Debolskiy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3
- Inferring Permafrost Active Layer Thermal Properties From Numerical Model Optimization J. de Bruin et al. 10.1029/2021GL093306
- Soil Organic Carbon Distribution and its Controlling Factors in a Non-Continuous Permafrost Zone in Northeastern China M. Yu et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4194708
- Divergent shrub‐cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems Y. Chen et al. 10.1111/gcb.15451
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Permafrost table temperature and active layer thickness variability on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2004–2021 L. Kaplan Pastíriková et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161690
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al. 10.1029/2020WR027463
- Increasing annual and extreme precipitation in permafrost-dominated Siberia during 1959–2018 P. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126865
- The imbalance of the Asian water tower T. Yao et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
- Quantitative Separation of Precipitation and Permafrost Waters Used for Evapotranspiration in a Boreal Forest: A Numerical Study Using Tracer Model H. Park et al. 10.1029/2021JG006645
- Seasonal Changes in Hydrology and Permafrost Degradation Control Mineral Element‐Bound DOC Transport From Permafrost Soils to Streams C. Hirst et al. 10.1029/2021GB007105
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Contribution of water rejuvenation induced by climate warming to evapotranspiration in a Siberian boreal forest H. Park et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.1037668
- Leveraging Soil Moisture Assimilation in Permafrost Affected Regions A. Pradhan et al. 10.3390/rs15061532
- Satellite Constraints on the Latitudinal Distribution and Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Ma et al. 10.1029/2021AV000408
- Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023
- Modelling impacts of lateral N flows and seasonal warming on an arctic footslope ecosystem N budget and N2O emissions based on species-level responses L. Rasmussen et al. 10.1007/s10533-022-00894-z
- Reduced methane emissions in former permafrost soils driven by vegetation and microbial changes following drainage C. Keuschnig et al. 10.1111/gcb.16137
- Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying C. Arendt et al. 10.3390/nitrogen3020021
- Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8
- Factors Controlling a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Derived Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product over The Seward Peninsula of Alaska J. Dann et al. 10.3390/rs14194927
- A Framework for Modeling Rock Glaciers and Permafrost at the Basin‐Scale in High Alpine Catchments L. Pruessner et al. 10.1029/2020MS002361
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Global spatiotemporal trend of satellite-based soil moisture and its influencing factors in the early 21st century C. Peng et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113569
- Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau at 1 km2 scale G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.009
- Evaluation of Parameterization Schemes for Matric Potential in Frozen Soil in Land Surface Models: A Modeling Perspective Y. Zhao et al. 10.1029/2023WR034644
- Soil hydrology in the Earth system H. Vereecken et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00324-6
- Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics M. Lara et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-18768-z
- Permafrost thaw drives surface water decline across lake-rich regions of the Arctic E. Webb et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01455-w
- Vegetation greening and climate change promote an increase in evapotranspiration across Siberia S. Shi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127965
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Recent advances in integrated hydrologic models: Integration of new domains A. Brookfield et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129515
- Variation in Fine Root Characteristics and Nutrient Dynamics Across Alaskan Ecosystems L. McCulloch et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00583-8
- Sensitivity of Arctic CH4 emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks P. de Vrese et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01715-3
- Degrading permafrost river catchments and their impact on Arctic Ocean nearshore processes P. Mann et al. 10.1007/s13280-021-01666-z
- Frozen soil hydrological modeling for a mountainous catchment northeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau H. Gao et al. 10.5194/hess-26-4187-2022
- Impacts of seasonally frozen soil hydrothermal dynamics on the watershed hydrological processes inferred from a spatially distributed numerical modelling approach H. Gao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129947
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios P. de Vrese & V. Brovkin 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
- Potential Satellite Monitoring of Surface Organic Soil Properties in Arctic Tundra From SMAP Y. Yi et al. 10.1029/2021WR030957
- Importance of Parameter and Climate Data Uncertainty for Future Changes in Boreal Hydrology A. Marshall et al. 10.1029/2021WR029911
- Burning trees in frozen soil: Simulating fire, vegetation, soil, and hydrology in the boreal forests of Alaska M. Lucash et al. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110367
- A boreal forest model benchmarking dataset for North America: a case study with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) B. Qu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ace376
- Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds A. Gädeke et al. 10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2
- Challenges in Hydrologic‐Land Surface Modeling of Permafrost Signatures—A Canadian Perspective M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1029/2022MS003013
- Water Migration and Segregated Ice Formation in Frozen Ground: Current Advances and Future Perspectives Z. Fu et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.826961
66 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Ecohydrological modelling in a deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for application in non‐stationary climates A. Marshall et al. 10.1002/hyp.14251
- The importance of freeze–thaw cycles for lateral tracer transport in ice-wedge polygons E. Jafarov et al. 10.5194/tc-16-851-2022
- Reviews and syntheses: Recent advances in microwave remote sensing in support of terrestrial carbon cycle science in Arctic–boreal regions A. Mavrovic et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023
- Influence of Tundra Polygon Type and Climate Variability on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes Near Utqiagvik, Alaska S. Dengel et al. 10.1029/2021JG006262
- Radiation, soil water content, and temperature effects on carbon cycling in an alpine swamp meadow of the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau J. Wei et al. 10.5194/bg-19-861-2022
- Spatial Estimates of Soil Moisture for Understanding Ecological Potential and Risk: A Case Study for Arid and Semi-Arid Ecosystems M. O’Donnell & D. Manier 10.3390/land11101856
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Hydrological Impact of the New ECMWF Multi-Layer Snow Scheme E. Zsoter et al. 10.3390/atmos13050727
- Deforestation for agriculture leads to soil warming and enhanced litter decomposition in subarctic soils T. Peplau et al. 10.5194/bg-20-1063-2023
- Radium Inputs Into the Arctic Ocean From Rivers: A Basin‐Wide Estimate E. Bullock et al. 10.1029/2022JC018964
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016 Y. Wang et al. 10.5194/essd-13-4385-2021
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Cambio climático: ciencia, política y más G. Gamboa Bernal 10.5294/pebi.2021.25.1.1
- Nitrogen transport in a tundra landscape: the effects of early and late growing season lateral N inputs on arctic soil and plant N pools and N2O fluxes L. Rasmussen et al. 10.1007/s10533-021-00855-y
- Arctic aquatic graminoid tundra responses to nutrient availability C. Andresen & V. Lougheed 10.5194/bg-18-2649-2021
- Trade-offs Between Wood and Leaf Production in Arctic Shrubs Along a Temperature and Moisture Gradient in West Greenland R. Higgens et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00541-4
- Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing J. Kim et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00415-1
- Influence of Snowpack Cold Content on Seasonally Frozen Ground and Its Hydrologic Consequences: A Case Study From Niwot Ridge, CO M. Rush & H. Rajaram 10.1029/2021WR031911
- Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures M. Debolskiy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3
- Inferring Permafrost Active Layer Thermal Properties From Numerical Model Optimization J. de Bruin et al. 10.1029/2021GL093306
- Soil Organic Carbon Distribution and its Controlling Factors in a Non-Continuous Permafrost Zone in Northeastern China M. Yu et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4194708
- Divergent shrub‐cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems Y. Chen et al. 10.1111/gcb.15451
- Improved Simulation of Arctic Circumpolar Land Area Snow Properties and Soil Temperatures A. Royer et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.685140
- Permafrost table temperature and active layer thickness variability on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2004–2021 L. Kaplan Pastíriková et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161690
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al. 10.1029/2020WR027463
- Increasing annual and extreme precipitation in permafrost-dominated Siberia during 1959–2018 P. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126865
- The imbalance of the Asian water tower T. Yao et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
- Quantitative Separation of Precipitation and Permafrost Waters Used for Evapotranspiration in a Boreal Forest: A Numerical Study Using Tracer Model H. Park et al. 10.1029/2021JG006645
- Seasonal Changes in Hydrology and Permafrost Degradation Control Mineral Element‐Bound DOC Transport From Permafrost Soils to Streams C. Hirst et al. 10.1029/2021GB007105
- Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway L. Martin et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021
- Contribution of water rejuvenation induced by climate warming to evapotranspiration in a Siberian boreal forest H. Park et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.1037668
- Leveraging Soil Moisture Assimilation in Permafrost Affected Regions A. Pradhan et al. 10.3390/rs15061532
- Satellite Constraints on the Latitudinal Distribution and Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Ma et al. 10.1029/2021AV000408
- Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023
- Modelling impacts of lateral N flows and seasonal warming on an arctic footslope ecosystem N budget and N2O emissions based on species-level responses L. Rasmussen et al. 10.1007/s10533-022-00894-z
- Reduced methane emissions in former permafrost soils driven by vegetation and microbial changes following drainage C. Keuschnig et al. 10.1111/gcb.16137
- Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying C. Arendt et al. 10.3390/nitrogen3020021
- Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8
- Factors Controlling a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Derived Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product over The Seward Peninsula of Alaska J. Dann et al. 10.3390/rs14194927
- A Framework for Modeling Rock Glaciers and Permafrost at the Basin‐Scale in High Alpine Catchments L. Pruessner et al. 10.1029/2020MS002361
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Global spatiotemporal trend of satellite-based soil moisture and its influencing factors in the early 21st century C. Peng et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113569
- Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau at 1 km2 scale G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.009
- Evaluation of Parameterization Schemes for Matric Potential in Frozen Soil in Land Surface Models: A Modeling Perspective Y. Zhao et al. 10.1029/2023WR034644
- Soil hydrology in the Earth system H. Vereecken et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00324-6
- Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics M. Lara et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-18768-z
- Permafrost thaw drives surface water decline across lake-rich regions of the Arctic E. Webb et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01455-w
- Vegetation greening and climate change promote an increase in evapotranspiration across Siberia S. Shi et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127965
- Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0023.1
- Recent advances in integrated hydrologic models: Integration of new domains A. Brookfield et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129515
- Variation in Fine Root Characteristics and Nutrient Dynamics Across Alaskan Ecosystems L. McCulloch et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00583-8
- Sensitivity of Arctic CH4 emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks P. de Vrese et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01715-3
- Degrading permafrost river catchments and their impact on Arctic Ocean nearshore processes P. Mann et al. 10.1007/s13280-021-01666-z
- Frozen soil hydrological modeling for a mountainous catchment northeast of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau H. Gao et al. 10.5194/hess-26-4187-2022
- Impacts of seasonally frozen soil hydrothermal dynamics on the watershed hydrological processes inferred from a spatially distributed numerical modelling approach H. Gao et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129947
- Defrosting northern catchments: Fluvial effects of permafrost degradation N. Tananaev & E. Lotsari 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103996
- Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios P. de Vrese & V. Brovkin 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
- Potential Satellite Monitoring of Surface Organic Soil Properties in Arctic Tundra From SMAP Y. Yi et al. 10.1029/2021WR030957
- Importance of Parameter and Climate Data Uncertainty for Future Changes in Boreal Hydrology A. Marshall et al. 10.1029/2021WR029911
- Burning trees in frozen soil: Simulating fire, vegetation, soil, and hydrology in the boreal forests of Alaska M. Lucash et al. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110367
- A boreal forest model benchmarking dataset for North America: a case study with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) B. Qu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ace376
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds A. Gädeke et al. 10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2
- Challenges in Hydrologic‐Land Surface Modeling of Permafrost Signatures—A Canadian Perspective M. Abdelhamed et al. 10.1029/2022MS003013
- Water Migration and Segregated Ice Formation in Frozen Ground: Current Advances and Future Perspectives Z. Fu et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.826961
Latest update: 21 Sep 2023
Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases...