Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 05 Feb 2020
| 05 Feb 2020
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison
Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison,
Wisconsin, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
David M. Lawrence
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Cathy J. Wilson
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
A. David McGuire
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks,
Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
Charles Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
Kevin Schaefer
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Elchin Jafarov
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
Shushi Peng
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique
de l'Environnement (LGGE), Université Grenoble Alps and CNRS, Grenoble, France
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100871, China
Xiaodong Chen
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Isabelle Gouttevin
IRSTEA-HHLY, Lyon, France
IRSTEA-ETNA, Grenoble, France
Eleanor Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Sarah Chadburn
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Duoying Ji
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
Guangsheng Chen
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Daniel Hayes
School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Maine, USA
Wenxin Zhang
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, Lund, Sweden
Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and
Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Latest update: 06 Dec 2025
Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases...
