Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
Research article
 | 
05 Feb 2020
Research article |  | 05 Feb 2020

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang

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Latest update: 24 May 2024
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Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.