Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 08 Apr 2020
| 08 Apr 2020
How useful is snow accumulation in reconstructing surface air temperature in Antarctica? A study combining ice core records and climate models
Quentin Dalaiden
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Hugues Goosse
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
François Klein
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder CO, USA
Max Holloway
British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, UK
Louise Sime
British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Elizabeth R. Thomas
British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
Related authors
Sarah Wauthy and Quentin Dalaiden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-192, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The surface mass balance (SMB) is one of the main drivers of future Antarctic mass changes. The interannual variability of the SMB is dominated by precipitation and extreme precipitation events (EPEs). In this study, we analyze the role of precipitation and EPEs in the contrasting SMB trends observed in the ice-core records of three adjacent ice rises. Our results show that precipitation and EPEs alone cannot explain the observed contrasts and suggest that other processes may be at work.
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Ryan L. Fogt, Quentin Dalaiden, and Gemma K. O'Connor
Clim. Past, 20, 53–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice is rapidly changing, with record lows set in 2017, 2022, and 2023 following decades of increase. To place these changes in a longer historical context, reconstructions have been created; however, they are quite different prior to observations. Here we find that the differences are more strongly tied to the implied connection of each reconstruction with the atmospheric circulation rather than differences in seasonality or geographic representation.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Ting-Chen Chen, Hugues Goosse, Matthias Aengenheyster, Kristian Strommen, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Roberts, Rohit Ghosh, Jin-Song von Storch, and Stephy Libera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-666, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a key driver of Southern Hemisphere climate variability, but global models often overestimate its persistence in summer. Using high-resolution models, we show this bias can be reduced, along with some improvements in jet latitude and likely a better-resolved eddy-mean flow feedback. Controlled experiments reveal the potential roles of sea surface temperature biases and ocean mesoscales, underscoring the complex mechanisms shaping SAM persistence.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan Lenaerts, Kristine M. Larson, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 19, 713–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Traditionally, glaciologists use global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) to measure the surface elevation and velocity of glaciers to understand processes associated with ice flow. Using the interference of GNSS signals that bounce off of the ice sheet surface, we measure the surface height change near GNSS receivers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). From surface height change, we infer daily accumulation rates that we use to understand the drivers of extreme precipitation in the ASE.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Sarah Wauthy and Quentin Dalaiden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-192, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The surface mass balance (SMB) is one of the main drivers of future Antarctic mass changes. The interannual variability of the SMB is dominated by precipitation and extreme precipitation events (EPEs). In this study, we analyze the role of precipitation and EPEs in the contrasting SMB trends observed in the ice-core records of three adjacent ice rises. Our results show that precipitation and EPEs alone cannot explain the observed contrasts and suggest that other processes may be at work.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Sentia Goursaud Oger, Louise C. Sime, and Max Holloway
Clim. Past, 20, 2539–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic ice cores provide information about past temperatures. Here, we run new climate model simulations, including stable water isotopes for the historical period. Across one-third of Antarctica, there is no strong connection between isotopes and temperature and a weak connection for most of the rest of Antarctica. This disconnect between isotopes and temperature is largely driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our results are helpful for temperature reconstructions from ice core records.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Dieter Tetzner, Bradley Markle, Joel Pedro, Guisella Gacitúa, Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, and Sarah Jackson
Clim. Past, 20, 2525–2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2525-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical records contained in a 12 m firn (ice) core from Peter I Island, a remote sub-Antarctic island situated in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean (the Bellingshausen Sea), capture changes in snowfall and temperature (2002–2017 CE). This data-sparse region has experienced dramatic climate change in recent decades, including sea ice decline and ice loss from adjacent West Antarctic glaciers.
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Anja Eichler, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 2691–2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing temperatures worldwide lead to more melting of glaciers and ice caps, even in the polar regions. This is why ice-core scientists need to prepare to analyse records affected by melting and refreezing. In this paper, we present a summary of how near-surface melt forms, what structural imprints it leaves in snow, how various signatures used for ice-core climate reconstruction are altered, and how we can still extract valuable insights from melt-affected ice cores.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Ryan L. Fogt, Quentin Dalaiden, and Gemma K. O'Connor
Clim. Past, 20, 53–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic sea ice is rapidly changing, with record lows set in 2017, 2022, and 2023 following decades of increase. To place these changes in a longer historical context, reconstructions have been created; however, they are quite different prior to observations. Here we find that the differences are more strongly tied to the implied connection of each reconstruction with the atmospheric circulation rather than differences in seasonality or geographic representation.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Yetang Wang, Xueying Zhang, Wentao Ning, Matthew A. Lazzara, Minghu Ding, Carleen H. Reijmer, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Paolo Grigioni, Petra Heil, Elizabeth R. Thomas, David Mikolajczyk, Lee J. Welhouse, Linda M. Keller, Zhaosheng Zhai, Yuqi Sun, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 411–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-411-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we construct a new database of Antarctic automatic weather station (AWS) meteorological records, which is quality-controlled by restrictive criteria. This dataset compiled all available Antarctic AWS observations, and its resolutions are 3-hourly, daily and monthly, which is very useful for quantifying spatiotemporal variability in weather conditions. Furthermore, this compilation will be used to estimate the performance of the regional climate models or meteorological reanalysis products.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Helene M. Hoffmann, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Jenna A. Epifanio, Kaden Martin, Diana Vladimirova, Helena V. Pryer, Emily Doyle, Axel Schmidt, Jack D. Humby, Isobel F. Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Robert Mulvaney, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1831–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The WACSWAIN project (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) investigates the fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last warm period on Earth (115 000–130 000 years before present). Within this framework an ice core was recently drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise. In this study we present a stratigraphic chronology of that ice core based on absolute age markers and annual layer counting for the last 2000 years.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Dieter R. Tetzner, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Claire S. Allen, and Mackenzie M. Grieman
Clim. Past, 18, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1709-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are drivers of recent environmental changes in West Antarctica. However, our understanding of this relationship is limited by short and sparse observational records. Here we present the first regional wind study based on the novel use of diatoms preserved in Antarctic ice cores. Our results demonstrate that diatom abundance is the optimal record for reconstructing wind strength variability over the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt.
Joanne S. Johnson, Ryan A. Venturelli, Greg Balco, Claire S. Allen, Scott Braddock, Seth Campbell, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda L. Hall, Peter D. Neff, Keir A. Nichols, Dylan H. Rood, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and John Woodward
The Cryosphere, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have suggested that some portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet were less extensive than present in the last few thousand years. We discuss how past ice loss and regrowth during this time would leave its mark on geological and glaciological records and suggest ways in which future studies could detect such changes. Determining timing of ice loss and gain around Antarctica and conditions under which they occurred is critical for preparing for future climate-warming-induced changes.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Dieter R. Tetzner, Claire S. Allen, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 16, 779–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presence of diatoms in Antarctic ice cores has been scarcely documented and poorly understood. Here we present a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of the diatom record preserved in a set of Antarctic ice cores. Our results reveal that the timing and amount of diatoms deposited present a strong geographical division. This study highlights the potential of the diatom record preserved in Antarctic ice cores to provide useful information about past environmental changes.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Matthew Chadwick, Claire S. Allen, Louise C. Sime, Xavier Crosta, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 18, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Algae preserved in marine sediments have allowed us to reconstruct how much winter sea ice was present around Antarctica during a past time period (130 000 years ago) when the climate was warmer than today. The patterns of sea-ice increase and decrease vary between different parts of the Southern Ocean. The Pacific sector has a largely stable sea-ice extent, whereas the amount of sea ice in the Atlantic sector is much more variable with bigger decreases and increases than other regions.
Karen E. Alley, Christian T. Wild, Adrian Luckman, Ted A. Scambos, Martin Truffer, Erin C. Pettit, Atsuhiro Muto, Bruce Wallin, Marin Klinger, Tyler Sutterley, Sarah F. Child, Cyrus Hulen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Michelle Maclennan, Eric Keenan, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 15, 5187–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a 20-year, satellite-based record of velocity and thickness change on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the largest remaining floating extension of Thwaites Glacier (TG). TG holds the single greatest control on sea-level rise over the next few centuries, so it is important to understand changes on the TEIS, which controls much of TG's flow into the ocean. Our results suggest that the TEIS is progressively destabilizing and is likely to disintegrate over the next few decades.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Madison L. Ghiz, Ryan C. Scott, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Matthew Lazzara, and Dan Lubin
The Cryosphere, 15, 3459–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how melt occurs over the vulnerable ice shelves of West Antarctica and determine that the three primary mechanisms can be evaluated using archived numerical weather prediction model data and satellite imagery. We find examples of each mechanism: thermal blanketing by a warm atmosphere, radiative heating by thin clouds, and downslope winds. Our results signify the potential to make a multi-decadal assessment of atmospheric stress on West Antarctic ice shelves in a warming climate.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Elizabeth Ruth Thomas, Guisella Gacitúa, Joel B. Pedro, Amy Constance Faith King, Bradley Markle, Mariusz Potocki, and Dorothea Elisabeth Moser
The Cryosphere, 15, 1173–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1173-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present the first-ever radar and ice core data from the sub-Antarctic islands of Bouvet Island, Peter I Island, and Young Island. These islands have the potential to record past climate in one of the most data-sparse regions on earth. Despite their northerly location, surface melting is generally low, and the upper layer of the ice at most sites is undisturbed. We estimate that a 100 m ice core drilled on these islands could capture climate over the past 100–200 years.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Marissa Dattler, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brooke Medley, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 15, 1065–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow density is required to convert observed changes in ice sheet volume into mass, which ultimately drives ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. However, snow properties respond dynamically to wind-driven redistribution. Here we include a new wind-driven snow density scheme into an existing snow model. Our results demonstrate an improved representation of snow density when compared to observations and can therefore be used to improve retrievals of ice sheet mass balance.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Tessa Gorte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 14, 4719–4733, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we analyze several spatial and temporal criteria to assess the ability of models in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks to recreate past Antarctic surface mass balance. We then compared a subset of the top performing models to all remaining models to refine future surface mass balance predictions under different forcing scenarios. We found that the top performing models predict lower surface mass balance by 2100, indicating less buffering than otherwise expected of sea level rise.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Zhiqiang Lyu, Anais J. Orsi, and Hugues Goosse
Clim. Past, 16, 1411–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses two different ways to perform model–data comparisons for the borehole temperature in Antarctica. The results suggest most models generally reproduce the long-term cooling in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE and the recent 50 years of warming in West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula. However, The 19th-century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead.
Jan T. M. Lenaerts, M. Drew Camron, Christopher R. Wyburn-Powell, and Jennifer E. Kay
The Cryosphere, 14, 2253–2265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, 2020
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Hugues Goosse, Joël Guiot, Fabio Gennaretti, Etienne Boucher, Frédéric André, and Mathieu Jonard
Clim. Past, 16, 1043–1059, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tree rings are the main data source for climate reconstructions over the last millennium. Statistical tree-growth models have limitations that process-based models could overcome. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDEN) as a complex proxy system model for palaeoclimate applications. We show its ability to simulate tree-growth index time series that can fit robustly tree-ring width observations under certain conditions.
Brice Noël, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Willem Jan van de Berg, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Bert Wouters, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1425–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2; ~111 km) to force a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ~11 km), which is further refined to 1 km spatial resolution. For the first time, an Earth-system-model-based product, assimilating no observations, can reconstruct realistic historical ice sheet surface mass balance as well as the mass loss acceleration that started in the 1990s.
Louis de Wergifosse, Frédéric André, Nicolas Beudez, François de Coligny, Hugues Goosse, François Jonard, Quentin Ponette, Hugues Titeux, Caroline Vincke, and Mathieu Jonard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1459–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Given their key role in the simulation of climate impacts on tree growth, phenological and water balance processes must be integrated in models simulating forest dynamics under a changing environment. Here, we describe these processes integrated in HETEROFOR, a model accounting simultaneously for the functional, structural and spatial complexity to explore the forest response to forestry practices. The model evaluation using phenological and soil water content observations is quite promising.
Kirstin Hoffmann, Francisco Fernandoy, Hanno Meyer, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Marcelo Aliaga, Dieter Tetzner, Johannes Freitag, Thomas Opel, Jorge Arigony-Neto, Christian Florian Göbel, Ricardo Jaña, Delia Rodríguez Oroz, Rebecca Tuckwell, Emily Ludlow, Joseph R. McConnell, and Christoph Schneider
The Cryosphere, 14, 881–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-881-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-881-2020, 2020
Hailong Wang, Jeremy G. Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jesse M. Nusbaumer, Hansi Singh, David Noone, Philip J. Rasch, and Rudong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using a climate model with unique water source tagging, we found that sea-ice anomalies in the Southern Ocean and accompanying SST changes have a significant influence on Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution through their direct impact on moisture sources and indirect impact on moisture transport. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation.
Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Rosalyn Hatcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. Here, we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial.
Kévin Fourteau, Patricia Martinerie, Xavier Faïn, Christoph F. Schaller, Rebecca J. Tuckwell, Henning Löwe, Laurent Arnaud, Olivier Magand, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Johannes Freitag, Robert Mulvaney, Martin Schneebeli, and Vladimir Ya. Lipenkov
The Cryosphere, 13, 3383–3403, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3383-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3383-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding gas trapping in polar ice is essential to study the relationship between greenhouse gases and past climates. New data of bubble closure, used in a simple gas-trapping model, show inconsistency with the final air content in ice. This suggests gas trapping is not fully understood. We also use a combination of high-resolution measurements to investigate the effect of polar snow stratification on gas trapping and find that all strata have similar pores, but that some close in advance.
Raymond Sellevold, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brice Noël, William H. Lipscomb, and Miren Vizcaino
The Cryosphere, 13, 3193–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate a downscaling method to calculate ice sheet surface mass balance with global climate models, despite their coarse resolution. We compare it with high-resolution climate modeling. Despite absence of fine-scale simulation of individual energy and mass contributors, the method provides realistic vertical SMB gradients that can be used in forcing of ice sheet models, e.g., for sea level projections. Also, the climate model simulation is improved with the method implemented interactively.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Alexandra Gossart, Stephen P. Palm, Niels Souverijns, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Blowing snow measurements are scarce, both in time and space over the Antarctic ice sheet. We compare here CALIPSO satellite blowing snow measurements, to ground-base remote sensing ceilometer retrievals at two coastal stations in East Antarctica. Results indicate that 95 % of the blowing snow occurs under cloudy conditions, and are missed by the satellite. In addition, difficulties arise if comparing point locations to satellite overpasses.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Hugues Goosse, Pierre-Yves Barriat, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Paolo Pelucchi, and Anouk Vlug
Clim. Past, 14, 1119–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers provide iconic illustrations of past climate change, but records of glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically to test the ability of models to reproduce past changes. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be simply linked to the climate simulated by models. This is done here, and it is shown that the observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Feng Shi, Sen Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Hugues Goosse, and Qiuzhen Yin
Clim. Past, 13, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1919-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed the multi-proxy precipitation field for China over the past 500 years, which includes three leading modes (a monopole, a dipole, and a triple) of precipitation variability. The dipole mode may be controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Such reconstruction is an essential source of information to document the climate variability over decadal to centennial timescales and can be used to assess the ability of climate models to simulate past climate change.
Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
Clim. Past, 13, 1831–1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1831-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Comparisons of proxy data to GCM-simulated hydroclimate are still limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterized. In this study, we bring together tree-ring paleoclimate evidence and CMIP5–PMIP3 model simulations of the last millennium hydroclimate variability across Scandinavia. We explore the consistency between the datasets and the role of external forcing versus internal variability in driving the hydroclimate changes regionally.
Alexandra Gossart, Niels Souverijns, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan H. Schween, Alexander Mangold, Quentin Laffineur, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 11, 2755–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Blowing snow plays an important role on local surface mass balance of Antarctica. We present here the blowing snow detection algorithm, to retrieve blowing snow occurrence from the attenuated backscatter signal of ceilometers set up at two station. There is a good correspondence in detection of heavy blowing snow by the algorithm and the visual observations performed at Neumayer station. Moreover, most of the blowing snow occurs during events bringing precipitation from the coast inland.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Jeremy Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Hailong Wang
The Cryosphere, 11, 2595–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this CESM modeling study, we uncover regional relationships in snowfall across Antarctica that are corroborated by regional modeling and ice core records. These relationships are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport and dampen overall Antarctic snowfall variability, with implications for Antarctic-sourced sea level variability and detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Chris S.~M. Turney, Andrew Klekociuk, Christopher J. Fogwill, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Claire L. Parkinson, Gilbert Compo, Matthew Lazzara, Linda Keller, Rob Allan, Jonathan G. Palmer, Graeme Clark, and Ezequiel Marzinelli
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-51, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that a mid-twentieth century decrease in geopotential height in the southwest Pacific marks a Rossby wave response to equatorial Pacific warming, leading to enhanced easterly airflow off George V Land. Our results suggest that in contrast to ozone hole-driven changes in the Amundsen Sea, the 1979–2015 increase in sea ice extent off George V Land may be in response to reduced northward Ekman drift and enhanced (near-coast) production as a consequence of low latitude forcing.
Chris S. M. Turney, Christopher J. Fogwill, Jonathan G. Palmer, Erik van Sebille, Zoë Thomas, Matt McGlone, Sarah Richardson, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Pavla Fenwick, Violette Zunz, Hugues Goosse, Kerry-Jayne Wilson, Lionel Carter, Mathew Lipson, Richard T. Jones, Melanie Harsch, Graeme Clark, Ezequiel Marzinelli, Tracey Rogers, Eleanor Rainsley, Laura Ciasto, Stephanie Waterman, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and Martin Visbeck
Clim. Past, 13, 231–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate but suffers from a dearth of observational data. As the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–2014 we have developed the first annually resolved temperature record using trees from subantarctic southwest Pacific (52–54˚S) to extend the climate record back to 1870. With modelling we show today's high climate variability became established in the ~1940s and likely driven by a Rossby wave response originating from the tropical Pacific.
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
François Klein, Hugues Goosse, Nicholas E. Graham, and Dirk Verschuren
Clim. Past, 12, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses global climate model simulations of long-term East African hydroclimate changes relative to proxy-based reconstructions over the last millennium. No common signal is found between model results and reconstructions as well as among the model time series, which suggests that simulated hydroclimate is mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
V. Zunz and H. Goosse
The Cryosphere, 9, 541–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015, 2015
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
F. Klein, H. Goosse, A. Mairesse, and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 10, 1145–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1145-2014, 2014
J. T. M. Lenaerts, C. J. P. P. Smeets, K. Nishimura, M. Eijkelboom, W. Boot, M. R. van den Broeke, and W. J. van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 8, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, 2014
B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban
The Cryosphere, 8, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, 2014
H. Goosse and V. Zunz
The Cryosphere, 8, 453–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-453-2014, 2014
J. M. van Wessem, C. H. Reijmer, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 8, 125–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, 2014
A. Mairesse, H. Goosse, P. Mathiot, H. Wanner, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013, 2013
S. Dubinkina and H. Goosse
Clim. Past, 9, 1141–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, B. Franco, M. Tedesco, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
I. M. Howat, S. de la Peña, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 7, 201–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica
Age–depth distribution in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and Antarctic-wide comparisons of internal reflection horizons
Assessing the sensitivity of the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, to basal melt and calving
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers
Satellite data reveal details of glacial isostatic adjustment in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
A reconstruction of the ice thickness of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70º S
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Current reversal leads to regime change in Amery Ice Shelf cavity in the twenty-first century
A facet based numerical model to retrieve ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith and Kohler region of West Antarctica
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Viscoelastic mechanics of tidally induced lake drainage in the Amery grounding zone
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines – Impact of critical access depths on sub-shelf melt
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the melting of floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that compared to climatic changes, the effect of relative sea level on ice-shelf melting is small.
Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Alexandra M. Zuhr, Julien A. Bodart, Olaf Eisen, and Paul Bons
The Cryosphere, 19, 1153–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents internal reflection horizons (IRHs) over an area of 450 000 km² from western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, spanning 4.8–91 ka. Using radar and ice core data, nine IRHs were dated and correlated with volcanic events. The data enhance our understanding of the ice sheet's age–depth architecture, accumulation, and dynamics. The findings inform ice flow models and contribute to Antarctic-wide comparisons of IRHs, supporting efforts toward a 3D age–depth ice sheet model.
Lawrence A. Bird, Felicity S. McCormack, Johanna Beckmann, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
The Cryosphere, 19, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vanderford Glacier is the fastest-retreating glacier in East Antarctica and may have important implications for future ice loss from the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our ice sheet model simulations suggest that grounding line retreat is driven by sub-ice-shelf basal melting, in which warm ocean waters melt ice close to the grounding line. We show that current estimates of basal melt are likely too low, highlighting the need for improved estimates and direct measurements of basal melt in the region.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 19, 919–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 kyr by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~ 10 000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to the present of 9.2 to 26.5 m equivalent sea level relative to the present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing-ice problem.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
The Cryosphere, 19, 303–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples, and ground-penetrating radar) to assess the suitability for subglacial drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak (74.86°S, 99.77°W).
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Mathieu Morlighem, Huw Horgan, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
The Cryosphere, 19, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Matthias O. Willen, Bert Wouters, Taco Broerse, Eric Buchta, and Veit Helm
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3086, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment is likely in the near future. Vertical uplift of bedrock due to glacial isostatic adjustment stabilizes the ice sheet and may delay its collapse. So far, only spatially and temporally sparse GNSS measurements have been able to observe this bedrock motion. We have combined satellite data and quantified a region-wide bedrock motion that independently matches GNSS measurements. This can improve ice-sheet predictions.
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Kaian Shahateet, Johannes J. Fürst, Francisco Navarro, Thorsten Seehaus, Daniel Farinotti, and Matthias Braun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1571, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the present work, we provide a new ice-thickness reconstruction of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70º S by using inversion modeling. This model consists of two steps; the first takes basic assumptions of the rheology of the glacier, and the second uses mass conservation to improve the reconstruction where the previously made assumptions are expected to fail. Validation with independent data showed that our reconstruction improved compared to other reconstruction available.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Jing Jin, Antony J. Payne, and Christopher Y. S. Bull
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1287, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Amery Ice Shelf cavity is one of the largest cold cavities filled by relatively cold Dense Shelf Water. However, in this study, we show that warm intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water flushes the Amery cavity, which changes it from a cold cavity to a warm cavity and leads to an abrupt increase in basal melt rate in the 2060s. The shift to the warm cavity is attributed to a freshening-driven current reversal in front of the ice shelf.
Jérémie Aublanc, François Boy, Franck Borde, and Pierre Féménias
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1323, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed an innovative algorithm to derive the ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry measurements. The processing chain is named the “Altimeter data Modelling and Processing for Land Ice” (AMPLI). The performance improvement is substantial compared to the official data generated by the ESA ground segment. With AMPLI, we show that Sentinel-3 is able to estimate the Surface Elevation Change of the Antarctic ice sheet with a high level of agreement to ICESat-2.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Heather Louise Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith and Kohler Region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10%, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of ‘ice piracy’ hasn’t previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Hanwen Zhang, Richard F. Katz, and Laura A. Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01249, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01249, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In Antarctica, supraglacial lakes are formed by melting near the grounding lines, where grounded ice sheets transition to floating ice shelves. We model the tidal flexure near the grounding lines and analyse its contribution to lake drainage through hydrofracturing. We show that tidal flexure and lake water pressure together control lake drainage in the Amery Ice Shelf, which indicates the importance of tidal stress to processes associated with hydrofracturing near the grounding lines.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-58, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A mixed statistical-physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide a back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of critical access depths on basal melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that connect the deeper open ocean and the ice-shelf cavity. We detect 'prominent' oceanic gateways in some Antarctic regions and estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Cited articles
Abram, N. J., McGregor, H. V., Tierney, J. E., Evans, M. N., McKay, N. P.,
Kaufman, D. S., Thirumalai, K., Martrat, B., Goosse, H., Phipps, S. J.,
Steig, E. J., Kilbourne, K. H., Saenger, C. P., Zinke, J., Leduc, G.,
Addison, J. A., Mortyn, P. G., Seidenkrantz, M. S., Sicre, M. A., Selvaraj,
K., Filipsson, H. L., Neukom, R., Gergis, J., Curran, M. A., and Von
Gunten, L.: Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and
continents, Nature, 536, 411–418, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19082, 2016. a, b, c
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a
Altnau, S., Schlosser, E., Isaksson, E., and Divine, D.: Climatic signals from 76 shallow firn cores in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 9, 925–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-925-2015, 2015. a, b
Bamber, J. L., Gomez-Dans, J. L., and Griggs, J. A.: A new 1 km digital elevation model of the Antarctic derived from combined satellite radar and laser data – Part 1: Data and methods, The Cryosphere, 3, 101–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-101-2009, 2009. a
Bamber, J. L., Westaway, R. M., Marzeion, B., and Wouters, B.: The land ice
contribution to sea level during the satellite era, Environ. Res.
Lett., 13, 063008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f0, 2018. a
Church, J., Clark, P., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M., Milne, G., Nerem, R., Nunn, P., Payne, A., Pfeffer, W.,
Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: The Physical Science Basism Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex V., and Midg, P. M., Tech. rep.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA,
2013. a
Clem, K. R., Renwick, J. A., and McGregor, J.: Autumn Cooling of Western East
Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 89–107, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027435, 2018. a
Danielson, J. and Gesch, D.: Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data
2010(GMTED2010), U.S. Geological Survey, 2010, 26 pp., 2011. a
Dansgaard, W. and Johnsen, S. J.: A Flow Model and a Time Scale for the Ice
Core from Camp Century, Greenland, J. Glaciol., 8, 215–223,
https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000031208, 1969. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, I., Biblot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Greer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.
B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kohler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Mong-Sanz, B. M., Morcette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J. N., and Vitart,
F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Dubinkina, S., Goosse, H., Sallaz-Damaz, Y., Crespin, E., and Crucifix, M.:
Testing a Particle Filter To Reconstruct Climate Changes Over the Past
Centuries, Int. J. Bifurcat. Chaos, 21, 3611–3618,
https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127411030763, 2011. a, b, c, d
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., Noblet, N. D., Ethe, C., Flavoni, S.,
Friedlingstein, P., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F.,
Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G.,
Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J.,
Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y.,
Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M.,
Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and
Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System
Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013. a
ECMWF: Part IV : Physical Processes (CY33R1), Tech. rep.,
available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/node/9227 (last access: 3 April 2019), 2008. a
Ettema, J., van den Broeke, M. R., van Meijgaard, E., van de Berg, W. J., Box, J. E., and Steffen, K.: Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model – Part 1: Evaluation, The Cryosphere, 4, 511–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-511-2010, 2010. a
Fan, T., Deser, C., and Schneider, D.: Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in thecontext of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2419–2426, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059239, 2014. a
Favier, V., Agosta, C., Parouty, S., Durand, G., Delaygue, G., Gallée, H., Drouet, A.-S., Trouvilliez, A., and Krinner, G.: An updated and quality controlled surface mass balance dataset for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 583–597, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-583-2013, 2013. a
Frezzotti, M., Urbini, S., Proposito, M., Scarchilli, C., and Gandolfi, S.:
Spatial and temporal variability of surface mass balance near Talos Dome,
East Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F02032,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000638, 2007. a
Frezzotti, M., Scarchilli, C., Becagli, S., Proposito, M., and Urbini, S.: A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 yr, The Cryosphere, 7, 303–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-303-2013, 2013. a, b
Fudge, T. J., Markle1, B. R., Cuffey, K. M., Buizert, C., Taylor4, K. C.,
Steig, E. J., Waddington, E. D., Conway, H., and Koutnik, M.: Variable
relationship between accumulation and temperature in West Antarctica for the
past 31,000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3795–3803,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068356, 2016. a
Fyke, J., Sergienko, O., Löfverström, M., Price, S., and Lenaerts, J. T.: An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System, Rev. Geophys., 56, 361–408,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000600, 2018. a
Gent, P. R., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, L. J., Holland, M. M., Hunke, E. C.,
Jayne, S. R., Lawrence, D. M., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P. J., Vertenstein, M.,
Worley, P. H., Yang, Z. L., and Zhang, M.: The community climate system
model version 4, J. Climate, 24, 4973–4991,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1, 2011. a
Goodwin, B. P., Mosley-Thompson, E., Wilson, A. B., Porter, S. E., and Roxana Sierra-Hernandez, M.: Accumulation variability in the Antarctic Peninsula: The role of large-scale atmospheric oscillations and their interactions, J. Climate, 29, 2579–2596, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0354.1, 2016. a, b
Goosse, H.: Reconstructed and simulated temperature asymmetry between
continents in both hemispheres over the last centuries, Clim. Dynam.,
48, 1483–1501, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3154-z, 2017. a
Goosse, H., Crespin, E., de Montety, A., Mann, M. E., Renssen, H., and
Timmermann, A.: Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600
years using climate model simulations with data assimilation, J.
Geophys. Res., 115, D09108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012737, 2010. a, b
Goosse, H., Braida, M., Crosta, X., Mairesse, A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mathiot, P., Neukom, R., Oerter, H., Philippon, G., Renssen, H., Stenni, B., van Ommen, T., and Verleyen, E.: Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions, Quatern.
Sci. Rev., 55, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.003, 2012. a
Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Favier, V., Orsi, A., and Werner, M.: Water stable isotope spatio-temporal variability in Antarctica in 1960–2013: observations and simulations from the ECHAM5-wiso atmospheric general circulation model, Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018. a
Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Favier, V., Preunkert, S., Legrand, M., Minster, B., and Werner, M.: Challenges associated with the climatic interpretation of water stable isotope records from a highly resolved firn core from Adélie Land, coastal Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019. a
Greuell, W. and Thomas, K.: Numerical modelling of the energy balance and the englacial temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Calculations for the
ETH-Camp location (West Greenland, 1155 m a.s.l.), Global Planet.
Change, 9, 91–114, 1994. a
Hakim, G. J., Emile-Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M., Tardif, R., Steiger, N., and Perkins, W. A.: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 6745–6764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751, 2016. a, b
Holloway, M. D., Sime, L. C., Singarayer, J. S., Tindall, J. C., Bunch, P., and Valdes, P. J.: Antarctic last interglacial isotope peak in response to sea ice retreat not ice-sheet collapse, Nat. Commun., 7, 12293,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12293, 2016a. a, b, c
Holloway, M. D., Sime, L. C., Singarayer, J. S., Tindall, J. C., and Valdes,
P. J.: Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: Coupled model
simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late
Holocene, Quatern. Sci. Rev., 131, 350–364,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.07.007, 2016b. a
Huybrechts, P., Gregory, J., Janssens, I., and Wild, M.: Modelling Antarctic
and Greenland volume changes during the 20th and 21st centuries forced by GCM
time slice integrations, Global Planet. Change, 42, 83–105,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.11.011, 2004. a
Jones, J. M., Gille, S. T., Goosse, H., Abram, N. J., Canziani, P. O., Charman, D. J., Clem, K. R., Crosta, X., De Lavergne, C., Eisenman, I., England, M. H., Fogt, R. L., Frankcombe, L. M., Marshall, G. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Morrison, A. K., Orsi, A. J., Raphael, M. N., Renwick, J. A., Schneider, D. P., Simpkins, G. R., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B., Swingedouw, D., and Vance, T. R.: Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 917–926, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103, 2016. a, b, c
Jouzel, J.: Magnitude of isotope/temperature scaling for interpretation of
central Antarctic ice cores, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4361,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002677, 2003. a
Klein, F. and Goosse, H.: Reconstructing East African rainfall and Indian
Ocean sea surface temperatures over the last centuries using data
assimilation, Clim. Dynam., 50, 3909–3929,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3853-0, 2018. a, b, c, d
Klein, F., Abram, N. J., Curran, M. A. J., Goosse, H., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Moy, A., Neukom, R., Orsi, A., Sjolte, J., Steiger, N., Stenni, B., and Werner, M.: Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments, Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l
Krinner, G., Magand, O., Simmonds, I., Genthon, C., Dufresne, J.-l., Krinner,
G., Magand, O., Simmonds, I., Genthon, C., and Simulated, J.-l. D.:
Simulated antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance of the end of the
20th and 21st centuries To cite this version : HAL Id : hal-00184741
Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at, Clim.
Dynam., 28, 215–230, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0177-x, 2007. a
Kuipers Munneke, P., Picard, G., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T.,
and Van Meijgaard, E.: Insignificant change in Antarctic snowmelt volume
since 1979, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 6–10,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050207, 2012. a, b
Laepple, T., Münch, T., Casado, M., Hoerhold, M., Landais, A., and Kipfstuhl, S.: On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotopic variations in East Antarctic snow pits, The Cryosphere, 12, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-169-2018, 2018. a
Lenaerts, J. T., Van Meijgaard, E., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Ligtenberg,
S. R., Horwath, M., and Isaksson, E.: Recent snowfall anomalies in Dronning
Maud Land, East Antarctica, in a historical and future climate perspective,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2684–2688, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50559, 2013. a
Lenaerts, J. T., Vizcaino, M., Fyke, J., van Kampenhout, L., and van den
Broeke, M. R.: Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and
surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model, Clim. Dynam.,
47, 1367–1381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4, 2016. a
Lenaerts, J. T., Fyke, J. G., and Medley, B.: The signature of ozone depletion in recent Antarctic precipitation change: a study with the Community Earth System Model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12931–12939,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078608, 2018. a
Lenaerts, J. T., Medley, B., Broeke, M. R., and Wouters, B.: Observing and
Modeling Ice‐Sheet Surface Mass Balance, Rev. Geophys., 57, 376–420,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018rg000622, 2019. a
Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Déry, S. J., König-Langlo, G., Ettema, J., and Munneke, P. K.: Modelling snowdrift sublimation on an Antarctic ice shelf, The Cryosphere, 4, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-179-2010, 2010. a
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Van De Berg, W. J., Van
Meijgaard, E., and Kuipers Munneke, P.: A new, high-resolution surface
mass balance map of Antarctica (1979–2010) based on regional atmospheric
climate modeling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1–5,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050713, 2012. a, b
Magand, O., Picard, G., Brucker, L., Fily, M., and Genthon, C.: Snow melting bias in microwave mapping of Antarctic snow accumulation, The Cryosphere, 2, 109–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-109-2008, 2008. a
Masson-Delmotte, V., Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Charbit, S., Krinner, G.,
Ritz, C., Guilyardi, E., Jouzel, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Gladstone,
R. M., Hewitt, C. D., Kitoh, A., LeGrande, A. N., Marti, O., Merkel, U.,
Motoi, T., Ohgaito, R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W. R., Ross, I., Valdes,
P. J., Vettoretti, G., Weber, S. L., Wolk, F., and Yu, Y.: Past and future
polar amplification of climate change: Climate model intercomparisons and
ice-core constraints, Clim. Dynam., 26, 513–529,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9, 2006. a
Masson-Delmotte, V., Hou, S., Ekaykin, A., Jouzel, J., Aristarain, A.,
Bernardo, R. T., Bromwich, D., Cattani, O., Delmotte, M. M., Falourd, S.,
Frezzotti, M., Gallée, H., Genoni, L., Isaksson, E., Landais, A.,
Helsen, M. M., Hoffmann, G., Lopez, J., Morgan, V., Motoyama, H., Noone, D.,
Oerter, H., Petit, J. R., Royer, A., Uemura, R., Schmidt, G. A., Schlosser,
E., Simões, J. C., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B., Stievenard, M., Van Den
Broeke, M. R., Van De Wal, R. S., Van De Berg, W. J., Vimeux, F., and
White, J. W.: A review of antarctic surface snow isotopic composition:
Observations, atmospheric circulation, and isotopic modeling, J.
Climate, 21, 3359–3387, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2139.1, 2008. a
Matsikaris, A., Widmann, M., and Jungclaus, J.: On-line and off-line data assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study, Clim. Past, 11, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, 2015. a, b
Medley, B., Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., Das, S. B., Steig, E. J., Conway, H., Gogineni, S., Lewis, C., Criscitiello, A. S., McConnell, J. R., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., and Leuschen, C.: Constraining the recent mass balance of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica, with airborne observations of snow accumulation, The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014. a
Medley, B., McConnell, J. R., Neumann, T. A., Reijmer, C. H., Chellman, N.,
Sigl, M., and Kipfstuhl, S.: Temperature and Snowfall in Western Queen Maud
Land Increasing Faster Than Climate Model Projections, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 45, 1472–1480, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075992, 2018. a, b
Monaghan, A. J. and Bromwich, D. H.: Advances in describing recent Antarctic
climate variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89,
1295–1306, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2543.1, 2008. a
Monaghan, A. J., Bromwich, D. H., Fogt, R. L., Wang, S.-H., Mayewski, P. A.,
Dixon, D. A., Ekaykin, A., Frezzotti, M., Goodwin, I., Isaksson, E., Kaspari,
S. D., Morgan, V. I., Oerter, H., Van Ommen, T. D., Van der Veen, C. J.,
and Wen, J.: Insignificant Change in Antarctic Snowfall Since the
International Geophysical Year, Science, 313, 827–831,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128243, 2006. a
Nicolas, J. P. and Bromwich, D. H.: Reconstruction of Antarctic near-surface temperatures (1958–2012), Data set, Polar Meterology Group, available at: http://polarmet.osu.edu/datasets/Antarctic_recon/ (last access: 4 July 2018), 2014b. a
Oerter, H., Wilhelms, F., Jung-Rothenhausler, F., Goktas, F., Miller, H., Graf, W., and Sommer, S.: Accumulation rates in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, as revealed by dielectric-profiling measurements of shallow firn cores, Ann. Glaciol., 30, 27–34, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756400781820705, 2000. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Joussaume, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., and
Abe-Ouchi, A.: Modeling and Data Syntheses of Past Climates: Paleoclimate
Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase II Workshop, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un.,
90, p. 93, 2009. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L.,
Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate Variability
and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System
Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754,
https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00233.1, 2015. a, b
PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 11, 1673–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Palerme, C., Genthon, C., Claud, C., Kay, J. E., Wood, N. B., and L'Ecuyer, T.: Evaluation of current and projected Antarctic precipitation in CMIP5
models, Clim. Dynam., 48, 225–239, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3071-1,
2017. a
Pendergrass, A. G., Hakim, G. J., Battisti, D. S., and Roe, G.: Coupled
air-mixed layer temperature predictability for climate reconstruction,
J. Climate, 25, 459–472, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4094.1, 2012. a
Philippe, M., Tison, J.-L., Fjøsne, K., Hubbard, B., Kjær, H. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Drews, R., Sheldon, S. G., De Bondt, K., Claeys, P., and Pattyn, F.: Ice core evidence for a 20th century increase in surface mass balance in coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 10, 2501–2516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016, 2016. a, b
Rayner, N. A., Parker, E. B., Horton, C. K., Holland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., van den Broeke, M. R., van Wessem,
M. J., and Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance
from 1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1095–1103,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116, 2019. a, b
Rotstayn, L. D., Collier, M. A., Dix, M. R., Feng, Y., Gordon, H. B.,
O'Farrell, S. P., Smith, I. N., and Syktus, J.: Improved simulation of
Australian climate and ENSO-related rainfall variability in a global climate
model with an interactive aerosol treatment, Int. J.
Climatol., 30, 1067–1088, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1952, 2010. a
Schlosser, E., Anschütz, H., Divine, D., Martma, T., Sinisalo, A.,
Altnau, S., and Isaksson, E.: Recent climate tendencies on an East Antarctic
ice shelf inferred from a shallow firn core network, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 119, 6578–6595, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021488,
2014. a
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012. a, b
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012. a
Schmidt, G. A., Kelley, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S. E., Bhat, M. K., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Chen, Y.-h., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Genio, A. D., Fainchtein, R. D., Faluvegi, G.,
Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., Legrande,
A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Matthews, E. E., Menon, S., Miller, R. L.,
Oinas, V., and Oloso, A. O.: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
contributions to the CMIP5 archive, J. Adv. Model. Earth
Syst., 6, 141–184, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000265, 2014. a
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., A, G., Barletta, V. R., Bentley, M. J., Bettadpur,
S., Briggs, K. H., Bromwich, D. H., Forsberg, R., Galin, N., Horwath, M.,
Jacobs, S., Joughin, I., King, M. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Li, J., Ligtenberg,
S. R. M., Luckman, A., Luthcke, S. B., McMillan, M., Meister, R., Milne, G.,
Mouginot, J., Muir, A., Nicolas, J. P., Paden, J., Payne, A. J., Pritchard,
H., Rignot, E., Rott, H., Sørensen, L. S., Scambos, T. A., Scheuchl, B.,
Schrama, E. J. O., Smith, B., Sundal, A. V., van Angelen, J. H., van de Berg,
W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., Vaughan, D. G., Velicogna, I., Wahr, J.,
Whitehouse, P. L., Wingham, D. J., Yi, D., Young, D., and Zwally, H. J.: A
Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance, Science, 338, 1183–1189,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228102, 2012. a
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., van den Broeke, M., Velicogna,
I., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne,
T., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A., Babonis,
G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., Bonin, J., Csatho, B., Cullather, R.,
Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert,
L., Groh, A., Gunter, B., Hanna, E., Harig, C., Helm, V., Horvath, A.,
Horwath, M., Khan, S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Konrad, H., Langen, P., Lecavalier,
B., Loomis, B., Luthcke, S., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S.,
Mohajerani, Y., Moore, P., Mouginot, J., Moyano, G., Muir, A., Nagler, T.,
Nield, G., Nilsson, J., Noel, B., Otosaka, I., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R.,
Pie, N., Rietbroek, R., Rott, H., Sandberg-Sørensen, L., Sasgen, I., Save,
H., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E., Schröder, L., Seo, K.-W., Simonsen, S.,
Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T., Talpe, M., Tarasov, L., van de Berg,
W. J., van der Wal, W., van Wessem, M., Vishwakarma, B. D., Wiese, D.,
Wouters, B., and the IMBIE team: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from
1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018. a, b
Sime, L. C., Tindall, J. C., Wolff, E. W., Connolley, W. M., and Valdes, P. J.: Antarctic isotopic thermometer during a
CO2 forced warming
event, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D24119,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010395, 2008. a, b, c, d
Sjolte, J., Sturm, C., Adolphi, F., Vinther, B. M., Werner, M., Lohmann, G., and Muscheler, R.: Solar and volcanic forcing of North Atlantic climate inferred from a process-based reconstruction, Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018. a, b
Steiger, N. J.: Historical climate model output of ECHAM5-wiso from 1871–2011 at T106 resolution, Data set, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1249604, 2018. a
Steiger, N. J., Hakim, G. J., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S., and Roe, G. H.:
Assimilation of time-averaged pseudoproxies for climate reconstruction,
J. Climate, 27, 426–441, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00693.1, 2014. a
Steiger, N. J., Steig, E. J., Dee, S. G., Roe, G. H., and Hakim, G. J.:
Climate reconstruction using data assimilation of water isotope ratios from
ice cores, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 1545–1568,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026011, 2017. a, b, c
Stenni, B., Curran, M. A. J., Abram, N. J., Orsi, A., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Neukom, R., Goosse, H., Divine, D., van Ommen, T., Steig, E. J., Dixon, D. A., Thomas, E. R., Bertler, N. A. N., Isaksson, E., Ekaykin, A., Werner, M., and Frezzotti, M.: Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z, aa, ab, ac, ad
Stenni, B., Curran, M. A. J., Abram, N. J., Orsi, A. J., Goursaud, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Neukom, R., Goosse, H., Divine, D. V., van Ommen, T. D., Steig, E. J., Dixon, D. A., Thomas, E. R., Bertler, N. A. N., Isaksson, E., Ekaykin, A. A., Werner, M., and Frezzotti, M.: PAGES Antarctica2k Temperature Reconstructions, Data set, NOAA, available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/22589 (last access: 18 March 2018), 2017b. a
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S.,
Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopf, R., Fast, I.,
Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T., and
Roeckner, E.: Atmospheric component of the MPI-M earth system model:
ECHAM6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, 146–172,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20015, 2013. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93,
485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Thomas, E. R., Hosking, J. S., Tuckwell, R. R., Warren, R. A., and Ludlow,
E. C.: Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9387–9393, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065750,
2015. a
Thomas, E. R., van Wessem, J. M., Roberts, J., Isaksson, E., Schlosser, E., Fudge, T. J., Vallelonga, P., Medley, B., Lenaerts, J., Bertler, N., van den Broeke, M. R., Dixon, D. A., Frezzotti, M., Stenni, B., Curran, M., and Ekaykin, A. A.: Regional Antarctic snow accumulation over the past 1000 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z, aa
Tindall, J. C., Valdes, P. J., and Sime, L. C.: Stable water isotopes in
HadCM3: Isotopic signature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the
tropical amount effect, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmospheres, 114,
D04111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010825, 2009. a, b
Trusel, L. D., Frey, K. E., Das, S. B., Karnauskas, K. B., Kuipers Munneke,
P., Van Meijgaard, E., and Van Den Broeke, M. R.: Divergent trajectories
of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios,
Nat. Geosci., 8, 927–932, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563, 2015. a
Turner, J., Connolley, W. M., and Marshall, G. J.: The performance of the
hadley centre climate model (HadCM3) in high southern latitudes, Int. J. Climatol., 112,
91–112, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1260, 2006. a
Turner, J., Lu, H., White, I., King, J. C., Phillips, T., Hosking, J. S.,
Bracegirdle, T. J., Marshall, G. J., Mulvaney, R., and Deb, P.: Absence of
21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural
variability, Nature, 535, 411–415, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645, 2016. a, b
Unden, P., Rontu, L., Järvinen, H., Lynch, P., Calvo, J., Cats, G.,
Cuxart, J., Eerola, K., Fortelius, C., Garcia-Moya, J. A., Jones, C.,
Lenderlink, G., McDonald, A., McGrath, R., Navascues, B., Woetman Nielsen,
N., Odegaard, V., Rodriguez, E., Rummukainen, M., Room, R., Sattler, K.,
Sass, B. H., Savijarvi, O., Wichers Schreur, B., Sigg, R., The, H., and
Tijm, A.: HIRLAM-5 Scientific Documentation, Environ. Geol., 43,
page238, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-002-0712-y, 2002. a
Van Den Broeke, M., Van De Berg, W. J., and Van Meijgaard, E.: Firn
depth correction along the Antarctic grounding line, Antarct. Sci., 20,
513–517, https://doi.org/10.1017/S095410200800148X, 2008. a
van Leeuwen, P. J.: Particle Filtering in Geophysical Systems, Mon.
Weather Rev., 137, 4089–4114, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2835.1,
2009. a
van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d
Wang, Y., Ding, M., van Wessem, J. M., Schlosser, E., Altnau, S., van den
Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T., Thomas, E. R., Isaksson, E., Wang, J., and
Sun, W.: A comparison of Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance from
atmospheric climate models and in situ observations, J. Climate, 29,
5317–5337, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0642.1, 2016. a
Widmann, M., Goosse, H., van der Schrier, G., Schnur, R., and Barkmeijer, J.: Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 627–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-627-2010, 2010. a
Wu, T., Song, L., Li, W., Wang, Z., Zhang, H., Xin, X., Zhang, Y., Zhang, L.,
Wu, F., Y, L., Zhang, F., Shi, X., Chu, M., Zhang, J., Fang, Y., Wang, F.,
Lu, Y., Liu, X., Wei, M., Liu, Q., Zhou, W., Dong, M., Zhao, Q., Ji, J.,
Laurent, L., and Zhou, M.: An overview of BCC climate system model development
and application for climate change studies, J. Meteorol.
Res., 28, 34–56, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7, 2014.
a
Yukimoto, S., Adachi, Y., Hosaka, M., Sakami, T., Yoshimura, H., Hirabara, M., Tanaka, T. Y., Shindo, E., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Mizuta, R., Yabu, S., Obata, A., Nakano, H., Tsuyoshi, K., Ose, T., and Kitoh, A.: A New Global
Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3 – Model
Description and Basic Performance, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 90, 23–64, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A02, 2012. a
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last...
