Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
24 Apr 2019
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 24 Apr 2019
| 24 Apr 2019
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
Kevin Bulthuis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Computational and Stochastic Modeling, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Maarten Arnst
Computational and Stochastic Modeling, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
The Cryosphere, 18, 5789–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, multi-year landfast sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the fast ice was joined to the glacier terminus, it could provide resistance against the glacier's flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the fast ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, Mana Inoue, Saïda El Amri, Sainan Sun, François Fripiat, Philippe Claeys, and Frank Pattyn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 35–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The datasets presented are the density, water isotopes, ions, and conductivity measurements, as well as age models and surface mass balance (SMB) from the top 120 m of two ice cores drilled on adjacent ice rises in Dronning Maud Land, dating from the late 18th century. They offer many development possibilities for the interpretation of paleo-profiles and for addressing the mechanisms behind the spatial and temporal variability of SMB and proxies observed at the regional scale in East Antarctica.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Xiaoran Guo, Liyun Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Sainan Sun, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 13, 3139–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, 2019
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Brice Van Liefferinge, Frank Pattyn, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Nanna B. Karlsson, Duncan A. Young, Johannes Sutter, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 2773–2787, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2773-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2773-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an important review of the state of knowledge for oldest-ice prospection, but also adds new basal geothermal heat flux constraints from recently acquired high-definition radar data sets. This is the first paper to contrast the two primary target regions for oldest ice: Dome C and Dome Fuji. Moreover, we provide statistical comparisons of all available data sets and a summary of the community's criteria for the retrieval of interpretable oldest ice since the 2013 effort.
Nanna B. Karlsson, Tobias Binder, Graeme Eagles, Veit Helm, Frank Pattyn, Brice Van Liefferinge, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 2413–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2413-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate the probability that the Dome Fuji region in East Antarctica contains ice more than 1.5 Ma old. The retrieval of a continuous ice-core record extending beyond 1 Ma is imperative to understand why the frequency of ice ages changed from 40 to 100 ka approximately 1 Ma ago.
We use a new radar dataset to improve the ice thickness maps, and apply a thermokinematic model to predict basal temperature and age of the ice. Our results indicate several areas of interest.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Sophie Berger, Reinhard Drews, Veit Helm, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 11, 2675–2690, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2675-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2675-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves act as a plug for the Antarctic ice sheet. The efficiency of this ice plug depends on how and how much the ocean melts the ice from below. This study relies on satellite imagery and a Lagrangian approach to map in detail the basal mass balance of an Antarctic ice shelf. Although the large-scale melting pattern of the ice shelf agrees with previous studies, our technique successfully detects local variability (< 1 km) in the basal melting of the ice shelf.
Sainan Sun, Stephen L. Cornford, John C. Moore, Rupert Gladstone, and Liyun Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 2543–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The buttressing effect of the floating ice shelves is diminished by the fracture process. We developed a continuum damage mechanics model component of the ice sheet model to simulate the process. The model is tested on an ideal marine ice sheet geometry. We find that behavior of the simulated marine ice sheet is sensitive to fracture processes on the ice shelf, and the stiffness of ice around the grounding line is essential to ice sheet evolution.
Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 11, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Marine Ice Sheet Instability is a mechanism that can potentially lead to collapse of marine sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet and floating ice shelves play a crucial role herein. Improved grounding line physics (interaction with subglacial sediment) are implemented in a new ice-sheet model and compared to traditional sliding laws. Ice shelf collapse leads to a significant higher sea-level contribution (up to 15 m in 500 years) compared to traditional grounding-line approaches.
Lionel Favier, Frank Pattyn, Sophie Berger, and Reinhard Drews
The Cryosphere, 10, 2623–2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate the short-term unstable retreat of an East Antarctic outlet glacier triggered by imposed sub-ice-shelf melt, compliant with current values, using a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model. We show that pinning points – topographic highs in contact with the ice-shelf base – have a major impact on ice-sheet stability and timing of grounding-line retreat. The study therefore calls for improving our knowledge of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry in order to reduce uncertainties in future ice loss.
Morgane Philippe, Jean-Louis Tison, Karen Fjøsne, Bryn Hubbard, Helle A. Kjær, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Reinhard Drews, Simon G. Sheldon, Kevin De Bondt, Philippe Claeys, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 10, 2501–2516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The reconstruction of past snow accumulation rates is crucial in the context of recent climate change and sea level rise. We measured ~ 250 years of snow accumulation using a 120 m ice core drilled in coastal East Antarctica, where such long records are very scarce. This study is the first to show an increase in snow accumulation, beginning in the 20th and particularly marked in the last 50 years, thereby confirming model predictions of increased snowfall associated with climate change.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
Reinhard Drews, Joel Brown, Kenichi Matsuoka, Emmanuel Witrant, Morgane Philippe, Bryn Hubbard, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 10, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-811-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The thickness of ice shelves is typically inferred using hydrostatic equilibrium which requires knowledge of the firn density. Here, we infer density from wide-angle radar using a novel algorithm including traveltime inversion and ray tracing. We find that firn is denser inside a 2 km wide ice-shelf channel which is confirmed by optical televiewing of two boreholes. Such horizontal density variations must be accounted for when using the hydrostatic ice thickness for determining basal melt rate.
G. Durand and F. Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 9, 2043–2055, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Projections of Antarctic dynamics and contribution to sea-level rise are evaluated in the light of intercomparison exercises dedicated to evaluate models' ability of representing coastal changes. Uncertainties in projections can be substantially decreased if a selection of models is made and models that are unqualified for the representation of coastal dynamics are excluded.
S. Sun, S. L. Cornford, Y. Liu, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1561-2014, 2014
D. Callens, K. Matsuoka, D. Steinhage, B. Smith, E. Witrant, and F. Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 8, 867–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-867-2014, 2014
D. Di Nitto, G. Neukermans, N. Koedam, H. Defever, F. Pattyn, J. G. Kairo, and F. Dahdouh-Guebas
Biogeosciences, 11, 857–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-857-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-857-2014, 2014
M. Thoma, K. Grosfeld, D. Barbi, J. Determann, S. Goeller, C. Mayer, and F. Pattyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1-2014, 2014
H. Fischer, J. Severinghaus, E. Brook, E. Wolff, M. Albert, O. Alemany, R. Arthern, C. Bentley, D. Blankenship, J. Chappellaz, T. Creyts, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Dinn, M. Frezzotti, S. Fujita, H. Gallee, R. Hindmarsh, D. Hudspeth, G. Jugie, K. Kawamura, V. Lipenkov, H. Miller, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, F. Pattyn, C. Ritz, J. Schwander, D. Steinhage, T. van Ommen, and F. Wilhelms
Clim. Past, 9, 2489–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, 2013
B. Van Liefferinge and F. Pattyn
Clim. Past, 9, 2335–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2335-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2335-2013, 2013
A. S. Drouet, D. Docquier, G. Durand, R. Hindmarsh, F. Pattyn, O. Gagliardini, and T. Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 7, 395–406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Detecting Holocene retreat and readvance in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica: assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the last interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
A fast and unified subglacial hydrological model applied to Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
ISMIP6-based Antarctic Projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Oceanic gateways in Antarctica – Impact of relative sea-level change on sub-shelf melt
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model
Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022
Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves
Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
Cosmogenic-nuclide data from Antarctic nunataks can constrain past ice sheet instabilities
Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)
High mid-Holocene accumulation rates over West Antarctica inferred from a pervasive ice-penetrating radar reflector
Seasonal and interannual variability of the landfast ice mass balance between 2009 and 2018 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
Megadunes in Antarctica: migration and characterization from remote and in situ observations
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges) to assess the suitability for drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 ka by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~10,000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to present of 9.2 to 26.5 meters equivalent sea-level relative to present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing ice problem.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-466, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new fast model for the water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling in a unified way various hydrological and bed conditions. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice-sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea-level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on both the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century, under a range of future climates, varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that, under stronger warming scenarios, ocean temperatures increases and more snow falls on the ice sheet. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melting driven loss exceeds snowfall driven gains, so that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, Mathieu Morlighem, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for monitoring mass changes. The flow displays an intra-annual variation; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing areas of the ice shelf where changes in basal melt most influence the ice flow. We suggest that basal melting partly drives the flow variability along the calving front of the ice shelf and will continue to do so in a warming world.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that variations in sea level alone can significantly impact the melting rates of ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Laurie Padman, Emilie Klein, Peter D. Bromirski, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica's ice shelves (the floating extension of the ice sheet) help regulate ice flow. As ice shelves thin or lose contact with the bedrock, the upstream ice tends to accelerate, resulting in increased mass loss. Here, we use an ice sheet model to simulate the effect of seasonal sea surface height variations and see if we can reproduce observed seasonal variability of ice velocity on the ice shelf. When correctly parameterised, the model fits the observations well.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt, Greg Balco, Hannah Buchband, and Perry Spector
The Cryosphere, 17, 1623–1643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the use of multimillion-year exposure ages from Antarctic bedrock outcrops to benchmark ice sheet model predictions and thereby infer ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. We describe a new approach for model–data comparison, highlight an example where observational data are used to distinguish end-member models, and provide guidance for targeted sampling around Antarctica that can improve understanding of ice sheet response to climate warming in the past and future.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Julien A. Bodart, Robert G. Bingham, Duncan A. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, David W. Ashmore, Enrica Quartini, Andrew S. Hein, David G. Vaughan, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 17, 1497–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how West Antarctica will change in response to future climatic change depends on our understanding of past ice processes. Here, we use a reflector widely visible on airborne radar data across West Antarctica to estimate accumulation rates over the past 4700 years. By comparing our estimates with current atmospheric data, we find that accumulation rates were 18 % greater than modern rates. This has implications for our understanding of past ice processes in the region.
Na Li, Ruibo Lei, Petra Heil, Bin Cheng, Minghu Ding, Zhongxiang Tian, and Bingrui Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 917–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The observed annual maximum landfast ice (LFI) thickness off Zhongshan (Davis) was 1.59±0.17 m (1.64±0.08 m). Larger interannual and local spatial variabilities for the seasonality of LFI were identified at Zhongshan, with the dominant influencing factors of air temperature anomaly, snow atop, local topography and wind regime, and oceanic heat flux. The variability of LFI properties across the study domain prevailed at interannual timescales, over any trend during the recent decades.
Giacomo Traversa, Davide Fugazza, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 427–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Megadunes are fields of huge snow dunes present in Antarctica and on other planets, important as they present mass loss on the leeward side (glazed snow), on a continent characterized by mass gain. Here, we studied megadunes using remote data and measurements acquired during past field expeditions. We quantified their physical properties and migration and demonstrated that they migrate against slope and wind. We further proposed automatic detections of the glazed snow on their leeward side.
Cited articles
Adhikari, S., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and Nowicki, S.: Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics, Solid Earth, 5, 569–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, 2014. a
An, M., Wiens, D. A., Zhao, Y., Feng, M., Nyblade, A., Kanao, M., Li, Y.,
Maggi, A., and Lévêque, J.-J.: Temperature,
lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate
inferred from seismic velocities, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 120,
8720–8742, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jb011917, 2015. a, b
Arnst, M. and Ponthot, J.-P.: An overview of nonintrusive characterization,
propagation, and sensitivity analysis of uncertainties in computational
mechanics, Int. J. Uncertain. Quan., 4, 387–421,
https://doi.org/10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2014006990, 2014. a
Arthern, R. J. and Williams, C. R.: The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the
submarine melting feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2352–2359,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl072514, 2017. a
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., and Truffer, M.: Complex Greenland outlet
glacier flow captured, Nat. Commun., 7, 10524, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10524,
2016. a
Barletta, V. R., Bevis, M., Smith, B. E., Wilson, T., Brown, A., Bordoni, A.,
Willis, M., Khan, S. A., Rovira-Navarro, M., Dalziel, I., Smalley Jr., R.,
Kendrick, E., Konfal, S., Caccamise II, D. J., Aster, R. C., Nyblade, A.,
and Wiens, D. A.: Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment
promotes ice-sheet stability, Science, 360, 1335–1339,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao1447, 2018. a
Beckmann, A. and Goosse, H.: A parameterization of ice shelf–ocean
interaction for climate models, Ocean Model., 5, 157–170,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s1463-5003(02)00019-7, 2003. a
Bennett, M. R.: Ice streams as the arteries of an ice sheet: their mechanics,
stability and significance, Earth-Sci. Rev., 61, 309–339,
https://doi.org/10.1016/s0012-8252(02)00130-7, 2003. a
Bindschadler, R. A., Nowicki, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Aschwanden, A., Choi, H.,
Fastook, J., Granzow, G., Greve, R., Gutowski, G., Herzfeld, U., Jackson, C.,
Johnson, J., Khroulev, C., Levermann, A., Lipscomb, W. H., Martin, M. A.,
Morlighem, M., Parizek, B. R., Pollard, D., Price, S. F., Ren, D., Saito, F.,
Sato, T., Seddik, H., Seroussi, H., Takahashi, K., Walker, R., and Wang,
W. L.: Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use
in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project), J. Glaciol., 59,
195–224, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j125, 2013. a, b
Blatter, H.: Velocity and stress fields in grounded glaciers: a simple
algorithm for including deviatoric stress gradients, J. Glaciol., 41,
333–344, https://doi.org/10.3189/s002214300001621x, 1995. a
Bolin, D. and Lindgren, F.: Excursion and contour uncertainty regions for
latent Gaussian models, J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 77, 85–106,
https://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12055, 2015. a, b, c, d
Briggs, R., Pollard, D., and Tarasov, L.: A glacial systems model configured
for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation, The Cryosphere, 7,
1949–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013, 2013. a, b
Brondex, J., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Durand, G.: Sensitivity
of grounding line dynamics to the choice of the friction law, J. Glaciol.,
63, 854–866, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2017.51, 2017. a, b, c
Brondex, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Gagliardini, O.: Sensitivity of
centennial mass loss projections of the Amundsen basin to the friction law,
The Cryosphere, 13, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-177-2019, 2019. a
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: Shallow shelf approximation as a
“sliding law” in a thermomechanically
coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys. Res., 114, F03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jf001179,
2009. a
Calonne, N., Montagnat, M., Matzl, M., and Schneebeli, M.: The layered
evolution of fabric and microstructure of snow at Point Barnola, Central East
Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 460, 293–301,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.041, 2017. a
Chen, B., Haeger, C., Kaban, M. K., and Petrunin, A. G.: Variations of the
effective elastic thickness reveal tectonic fragmentation of the Antarctic
lithosphere, Tectonophysics, 746, 412–424,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2017.06.012, 2018. a, b
Conrad, P. R., Davis, A. D., Marzouk, Y. M., Pillai, N. S., and Smith, A.:
Parallel Local Approximation MCMC for Expensive Models, SIAM/ASA J. Uncertainty Quantification,
6, 339–373, https://doi.org/10.1137/16m1084080, 2018. a
Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., Payne, A. J., Ng, E. G., Le Brocq, A. M.,
Gladstone, R. M., Edwards, T. L., Shannon, S. R., Agosta, C., van den Broeke,
M. R., Hellmer, H. H., Krinner, G., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Timmermann, R., and
Vaughan, D. G.: Century-scale simulations of the response of the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate, The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015. a, b
Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., Lee, V., Payne, A. J., and Ng, E. G.: Adaptive
mesh refinement versus subgrid friction interpolation in simulations of
Antarctic ice dynamics, Ann. Glaciol., 57, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2016.13,
2016. a
Crestaux, T., Le Maître, O., and Martinez, J.-M.: Polynomial chaos
expansion for sensitivity analysis, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 94, 1161–1172,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2008.10.008, 2009. a, b
de Boer, B., Dolan, A. M., Bernales, J., Gasson, E., Goelzer, H., Golledge,
N. R., Sutter, J., Huybrechts, P., Lohmann, G., Rogozhina, I., Abe-Ouchi, A.,
Saito, F., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in
the late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model
intercomparison project, The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015. a
Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg,
S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal
melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12567, 2013. a, b
Dinniman, M. S., Klinck, J. M., and Hofmann, E. E.: Sensitivity of Circumpolar
Deep Water Transport and Ice Shelf Basal Melt along the West Antarctic
Peninsula to Changes in the Winds, J. Climate, 25, 4799–4816,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00307.1, 2012. a, b
Docquier, D., Perichon, L., and Pattyn, F.: Representing Grounding Line
Dynamics in Numerical Ice Sheet Models: Recent Advances and Outlook, Surv.
Geophys., 32, 417–435, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9133-3, 2011. a
Drouet, A. S., Docquier, D., Durand, G., Hindmarsh, R., Pattyn, F.,
Gagliardini, O., and Zwinger, T.: Grounding line transient response in marine
ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 7, 395–406,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, 2013. a, b
Edwards, T. L., Brandon, M. A., Durand, G., Edwards, N. R., Golledge, N. R.,
Holden, P. B., Nias, I. J., Payne, A. J., Ritz, C., and Wernecke, A.:
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability, Nature,
566, 58–64, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4, 2019. a, b
Fajraoui, N., Marelli, S., and Sudret, B.: Sequential Design of Experiment for
Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions, SIAM/ASA J. Uncertainty Quantification, 5, 1061–1085,
https://doi.org/10.1137/16m1103488, 2017. a
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O.,
Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and Le Brocq, A. M.: Retreat
of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nat. Clim.
Change, 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014. a, b
French, J. P. and Hoeting, J. A.: Credible regions for exceedance sets of
geostatistical data, Environmetrics, 27, 4–14, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2371, 2015. a
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N.
E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G.,
Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske,
D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni,
P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel,
R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill,
W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk,
B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A.,
Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N.,
Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto,
B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti,
A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica,
The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d
Fürst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Rankl, M., Braun,
M., and Gagliardini, O.: The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Clim.
Change, 6, 479–482, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2912, 2016. a
Ghanem, R., Higdon, R., and Owhadi, H. (Eds.): Handbook of Uncertainty
Quantification, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12385-1, 2017. a, b, c, d
Ghanem, R. G. and Spanos, P. D.: Stochastic Finite Elements: A Spectral
Approach, Dover Publications, Mineola, New York, revised edition, 2003. a
Gillet-Chaulet, F., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Mosbeux, C., Mouginot, J.,
Rémy, F., and Ritz, C.: Assimilation of surface velocities acquired
between 1996 and 2010 to constrain the form of the basal friction law under
Pine Island Glacier, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10311–10321,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl069937, 2016. a, b, c
Gladstone, R., Schäfer, M., Zwinger, T., Gong, Y., Strozzi, T., Mottram,
R., Boberg, F., and Moore, J. C.: Importance of basal processes in
simulations of a surging Svalbard outlet glacier, The Cryosphere, 8,
1393–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, 2014. a
Gladstone, R. M., Warner, R. C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gagliardini, O.,
Zwinger, T., and Greve, R.: Marine ice sheet model performance depends on
basal sliding physics and sub-shelf melting, The Cryosphere, 11, 319–329,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-319-2017, 2017. a
Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Edwards, T., Beckley, M., Abe-Ouchi, A.,
Aschwanden, A., Calov, R., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Golledge, N.
R., Gregory, J., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Kennedy, J. H.,
Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Morlighem, M., Pattyn,
F., Payne, A. J., Rodehacke, C., Rückamp, M., Saito, F., Schlegel, N.,
Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Sun, S., van de Wal, R., and Ziemen, F. A.:
Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments
initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison, The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018. a
Golledge, N. R., Levy, R. H., McKay, R. M., and Naish, T. R.: East Antarctic
ice sheet most vulnerable to Weddell Sea warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44,
2343–2351, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl072422, 2017. a
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J.,
Trusel, L. D., and Edwards, T. L.: Global environmental consequences of
twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65–72,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019. a, b
Gomez, N., Mitrovica, J. X., Huybers, P., and Clark, P. U.: Sea level as a
stabilizing factor for marine-ice-sheet grounding lines, Nat. Geosci., 3,
850–853, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1012, 2010. a
Gomez, N., Pollard, D., and Mitrovica, J. X.: A 3-D coupled ice sheet
– sea level model applied to Antarctica through the last 40 ky,
Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 384, 88–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.09.042, 2013. a
Gopalan, G., Hrafnkelsson, B., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Jarosch, A. H., and
Pálsson, F.: A Bayesian hierarchical model for glacial dynamics based on
the shallow ice approximation and its evaluation using analytical solutions,
The Cryosphere, 12, 2229–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2229-2018,
2018. a
Greve, R. and Blatter, H.: Dynamics of Ice Sheets and Glaciers, Advances in
Geophysical and Environmental Mechanics and Mathematics, Springer-Verlag
Berlin Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03415-2, 2009. a, b, c, d
Hadigol, M. and Doostan, A.: Least squares polynomial chaos expansion: A review
of sampling strategies, Comput. Method. Appl. M., 332, 382–407,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2017.12.019, 2018. a, b
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., Determann, J., and Rae, J.:
Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a
redirected coastal current, Nature, 485, 225–228, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11064,
2012. a, b, c
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., and Hattermann, T.: The Fate of the
Southern Weddell Sea Continental Shelf in a Warming Climate, J. Climate, 30,
4337–4350, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0420.1, 2017. a, b, c
Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., and Holland, D. M.: The Response of Ice Shelf
Basal Melting to Variations in Ocean Temperature, J. Climate, 21, 2558–2572,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1909.1, 2008. a
Hutter, K.: Theoretical Glaciology: Material Science of Ice and the Mechanics
of Glaciers and Ice Sheets, D. Reidel Publishing Company,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-1167-4, 1983. a
Huybrechts, P. and de Wolde, J.: The Dynamic Response of the Greenland and
Antarctic Ice Sheets to Multiple-Century Climatic Warming, J. Climate, 12,
2169–2188, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2169:tdrotg>2.0.co;2, 1999. a, b
Isaac, T., Petra, N., Stadler, G., and Ghattas, O.: Scalable and efficient
algorithms for the propagation of uncertainty from data through inference to
prediction for large-scale problems, with application to flow of the
Antarctic ice sheet, J. Comput. Phys., 296, 348–368,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2015.04.047, 2015. a
Iskandarani, M., Wang, S., Srinivasan, A., Thacker, W. C., Winokur, J., and
Knio, O. M.: An overview of uncertainty quantification techniques with
application to oceanic and oil-spill simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
121, 2789–2808, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jc011366, 2016. a
Jacobs, S. S., Jenkins, A., Giulivi, C. F., and Dutrieux, P.: Stronger ocean
circulation and increased melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, Nat.
Geosci., 4, 519–523, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1188, 2011. a
Janssens, I. and Huybrechts, P.: The treatment of meltwater retention in
mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet, Ann. Glaciol., 31,
133–140, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756400781819941, 2000. a, b
Joughin, I., Tulaczyk, S., Bamber, J. L., Blankenship, D., Holt, J. W.,
Scambos, T., and Vaughan, D. G.: Basal conditions for Pine Island and
Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, determined using satellite and airborne
data, J. Glaciol., 55, 245–257, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214309788608705, 2009. a
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Holland, D. M.: Sensitivity of 21st century sea
level to ocean-induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 37, L20502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl044819, 2010. a
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse
Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica,
Science, 344, 735–738, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014. a, b
Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., and Meehl, G. A.: Challenges
in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models, J. Climate, 23,
2739–2758, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3361.1, 2010. a
Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Little, C. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Oppenheimer, M.,
Rasmussen, D. J., Strauss, B. H., and Tebaldi, C.: Probabilistic 21st and
22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites,
Earth's Future, 2, 383–406, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ef000239,
2014. a
Larour, E., Schiermeier, J., Rignot, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and
Paden, J.: Sensitivity Analysis of Pine Island Glacier ice flow using ISSM
and DAKOTA, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F02009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jf002146, 2012. a
Le Gratiet, L., Marelli, S., and Sudret, B.: Metamodel-Based Sensitivity
Analysis: Polynomial Chaos Expansions and Gaussian Processes, in: Handbook of
Uncertainty Quantification, edited by: Ghanem, R., Higdon, R., and Owhadi, H.,
chap. 38, 1289–1325, Springer, 2017. a
Le Maître, O. P. and Knio, O. M.: Spectral Methods for Uncertainty
Quantification: With Applications to Computational Fluid Dynamics, Springer
Science & Business Media, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3520-2, 2010. a, b, c, d
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Vizcaino, M., Fyke, J., van Kampenhout, L., and van den
Broeke, M. R.: Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and
surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model, Clim. Dynam., 47,
1367–1381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4, 2016. a
Ma, Y., Gagliardini, O., Ritz, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Durand, G., and
Montagnat, M.: Enhancement factors for grounded ice and ice shelves inferred
from an anisotropic ice-flow model, J. Glaciol., 56, 805–812,
https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310794457209, 2010. a
MacAyeal, D. R.: Large-Scale Ice Flow over a Viscous Basal Sediment: Theory and
Application to Ice Stream B, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 4071–4087,
https://doi.org/10.1029/jb094ib04p04071, 1989. a
Maris, M. N. A., de Boer, B., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Crucifix, M., van de
Berg, W. J., and Oerlemans, J.: Modelling the evolution of the Antarctic ice
sheet since the last interglacial, The Cryosphere, 8, 1347–1360,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1347-2014, 2014. a, b, c
Moholdt, G., Padman, L., and Fricker, H. A.: Basal mass budget of Ross and
Filchner-Ronne ice shelves, Antarctica, derived from Lagrangian analysis of
ICESat altimetry, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 119, 2361–2380,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jf003171, 2014. a
Morland, L. W.: Unconfined Ice-Shelf Flow, in: Dynamics of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet, edited by: van der Veen, C. J. and Oerlemans, J.,
Kluwer Academic Publishers, 99–116, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3745-1_6, 1987. a
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H.,
Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model
Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev.,
9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016. a
Oakley, J. E. and O'Hagan, A.: Probabilistic sensitivity
analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach, J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 66,
751–769, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2004.05304.x, 2004. a
Pattyn, F.: A new three-dimensional higher-order thermomechanical ice sheet
model: Basic sensitivity, ice stream development, and ice flow across
subglacial lakes, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2382, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jb002329,
2003. a
Pattyn, F. and Durand, G.: Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge
in estimating future sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4316–4320,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50824, 2013. a, b
Pattyn, F., Schoof, C., Perichon, L., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Bueler, E., de
Fleurian, B., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gladstone, R., Goldberg, D.,
Gudmundsson, G. H., Huybrechts, P., Lee, V., Nick, F. M., Payne, A. J.,
Pollard, D., Rybak, O., Saito, F., and Vieli, A.: Results of the Marine Ice
Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP, The Cryosphere, 6, 573–588,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-573-2012, 2012. a, b
Pattyn, F., Perichon, L., Durand, G., Favier, L., Gagliardini, O., Hindmarsh,
R. C. A., Zwinger, T., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Docquier, D., Fürst,
J. J., Goldberg, D., Gudmundsson, G. H., Humbert, A., Hütten, M.,
Huybrechts, P., Jouvet, G., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Martin, D., Morlighem,
M., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Rückamp, M., Rybak, O., Seroussi, H., Thoma,
M., and Wilkens, N.: Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet
models: results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 59,
410–422, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013jog12j129, 2013. a, b, c, d, e
Pattyn, F., Favier, L., Sun, S., and Durand, G.: Progress in Numerical Modeling
of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Dynamics, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 3, 174–184,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0069-7, 2017. a
Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., DeConto, R., Durand, G.,
Favier, L., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Munneke, P. K.,
Lenaerts, J. T. M., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H.,
Trusel, L. D., and van den Broeke, M.: The Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets under 1.5 ∘C global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 8,
1053–1061, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8, 2018. a, b
Petra, N., Martin, J., Stadler, G., and Ghattas, O.: A Computational Framework
for Infinite-Dimensional Bayesian Inverse Problems, Part II: Stochastic
Newton MCMC with Application to Ice Sheet Flow Inverse Problems, SIAM J.
Sci. Comput., 36, A1525–A1555, https://doi.org/10.1137/130934805, 2014. a
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and
collapse through the past five million years, Nature, 458, 329–332,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07809, 2009. a
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: A simple inverse method for the distribution
of basal sliding coefficients under ice sheets, applied to Antarctica, The
Cryosphere, 6, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-953-2012, 2012b. a
Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., and Alley, R. B.: Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet
retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth Planet. Sc.
Lett., 412, 112–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035, 2015. a, b
Pollard, D., Chang, W., Haran, M., Applegate, P., and DeConto, R.: Large
ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques, Geosci.
Model Dev., 9, 1697–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., van
den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal
melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10968,
2012. a
Rasmussen, C. E. and Williams, C. K. I.: Gaussian Processes for Machine
Learning, Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning, The MIT Press,
Cambridge, Massachussetts, 2006. a
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X., and Winkelmann, R.:
Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO, The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018a. a, b, c, d
Reese, R., Winkelmann, R., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Grounding-line flux
formula applied as a flux condition in numerical simulations fails for
buttressed Antarctic ice streams, The Cryosphere, 12, 3229–3242,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, 2018b. a
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-Shelf Melting
Around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798,
2013. a, b
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.:
Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and
Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41,
3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl060140, 2014. a, b
Robert, C. P. and Casella, G.: Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Springer Texts
in Statistics, Springer Science & Business Media, 2nd Edn.,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-4145-2, 2013. a
Rommelaere, V. and Ritz, C.: A thermomechanical model of ice-shelf flow, Ann.
Glaciol., 23, 13–20, https://doi.org/10.3189/s0260305500013203, 1996. a
Ruckert, K. L., Shaffer, G., Pollard, D., Guan, Y., Wong, T. E., Forest, C. E.,
and Keller, K.: Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple
Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration, PLoS ONE, 12,
e0170052, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170052, 2017. a, b
Schlegel, N.-J., Seroussi, H., Schodlok, M. P., Larour, E. Y., Boening, C.,
Limonadi, D., Watkins, M. M., Morlighem, M., and van den Broeke, M. R.:
Exploration of Antarctic Ice Sheet 100-year contribution to sea level rise
and associated model uncertainties using the ISSM framework, The Cryosphere,
12, 3511–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal
warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227–1231,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117, 2014. a, b, c
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability and
hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664,
2007a. a, b
Schoof, C.: Marine ice-sheet dynamics. Part 1. The case of rapid sliding, J.
Fluid. Mech., 573, 27–55, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022112006003570,
2007b. a, b, c
Schoof, C., Davis, A. D., and Popa, T. V.: Boundary layer models for calving
marine outlet glaciers, The Cryosphere, 11, 2283–2303,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2283-2017, 201 a
Schäfer, M., Zwinger, T., Christoffersen, P., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Laakso,
K., Pettersson, R., Pohjola, V. A., Strozzi, T., and Moore, J. C.:
Sensitivity of basal conditions in an inverse model: Vestfonna ice cap,
Nordaustlandet/Svalbard, The Cryosphere, 6, 771–783,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-771-2012, 2012. a
Scott, D. W.: Multivariate Density Estimation: : Theory, Practice, and
Visualization, John Wiley & Sons, 2nd Edn., https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118575574,
2015. a
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., van den Broeke, M.,
Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G., Nowicki,
S., Payne, T., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N. A. G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A.,
Babonis, G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., Bonin, J., Csatho, B., Cullather,
R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H., Gardner, A.,
Gilbert, L., Groh, A., Gunter, B., Hanna, E., Harig, C., Helm, V., Horvath,
A., Horwath, M., Khan, S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Konrad, H., Langen, P.,
Lecavalier, B., Loomis, B., Luthcke, S., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild,
S., Mohajerani, Y., Moore, P., Mouginot, J., Moyano, G., Muir, A., Nagler,
T., Nield, G., Nilsson, J., Noel, B., Otosaka, I., Pattle, M. E., Peltier,
W. R., Pie, N., Rietbroek, R., Rott, H., Sandberg-Sørensen, L., Sasgen,
I., Save, H., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E., Schröder, L., Seo, K.-W.,
Simonsen, S., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T., Talpe, M., Tarasov, L.,
van de Berg, W. J., van der Wal, W., van Wessem, M., Vishwakarma,
B. D., Wiese, D., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y,
2018. a
Stein, M.: Large Sample Properties of Simulations Using Latin Hypercube
Sampling, Technometrics, 29, 143–151, https://doi.org/10.2307/1269769, 1987. a, b
Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boshung,
J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M. (Eds.): Climate Change
2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom,
https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107415324, 2013. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1, 2012. a, b
Timmermann, R. and Hellmer, H. H.: Southern Ocean warming and increased ice
shelf basal melting in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries based on
coupled ice-ocean finite-element modelling, Ocean Dynam., 63, 1011–1026,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0642-0, 2013. a, b
Timmermann, R., Wang, Q., and Hellmer, H.: Ice-shelf basal melting in a global
finite-element sea-ice/ice-shelf/ocean model, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 303–314,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2012aog60a156, 2012. a
Tsai, V. C., Stewart, A. L., and Thompson, A. F.: Marine ice-sheet profiles and
stability under Coulomb basal conditions, J. Glaciol., 61, 205–215,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2015jog14j221, 2015. a, b, c, d
Van der Wal, W., Whitehouse, P. L., and Schrama, E. J. O.: Effect of GIA
models with 3D composite mantle viscosity on GRACE mass balance estimates
for Antarctica, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 414, 134–143,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.01.001, 2015. a, b
Van Wessem, J., Reijmer, C. H., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., Rignot, E.,
Medley, B., Joughin, I., Wouters, B., Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L.,
Lenaerts, J. T. M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., and van
Meijgaard, E.: Improved representation of East Antarctic surface mass
balance in a regional atmospheric climate model, J. Glaciol., 60, 761–770,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2014jog14j051, 2014. a
Vaughan, D. G., Comiso, J. C., Allison, I., Carrasco, J., Kaser, G., Kwok, R.,
Mote, P., Murray, T., Paul, F., Ren, J., Rignot, E., Solomina, O., Steffen,
K., and Zhang, T.: Observations: Cryosphere, in: Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited
by:
Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung,
J., Nauels, A., Xi, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge
University Press, 317–382, 2013. a
Waibel, M. S., Hulbe, C. L., Jackson, C. S., and Martin, D. F.: Rate of Mass
Loss Across the Instability Threshold for Thwaites Glacier Determines Rate of
Mass Loss for Entire Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 809–816,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076470, 2018. a, b, c
Weertman, J.: On the Sliding of Glaciers, J. Glaciol., 3, 33–38,
https://doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000024709, 1957. a
Weis, M., Greve, R., and Hutter, K.: Theory of shallow ice shelves, Continuum
Mech. Therm., 11, 15–50, https://doi.org/10.1007/s001610050102, 1999. a
Yu, H., Rignot, E., Seroussi, H., and Morlighem, M.: Retreat of Thwaites
Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow
models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws, The Cryosphere, 12,
3861–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018, 2018. a
Short summary
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to...
