Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019

Research article 24 Apr 2019

Research article | 24 Apr 2019

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change

Kevin Bulthuis et al.

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Cited articles

Adhikari, S., Ivins, E. R., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and Nowicki, S.: Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics, Solid Earth, 5, 569–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014, 2014. a
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Arthern, R. J. and Williams, C. R.: The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2352–2359, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl072514, 2017. a
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., and Truffer, M.: Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured, Nat. Commun., 7, 10524, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10524, 2016. a
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Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.