Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019

Research article 24 Apr 2019

Research article | 24 Apr 2019

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change

Kevin Bulthuis et al.

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AR by User deleted account on behalf of the Authors (12 Mar 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Mar 2019) by Olivier Gagliardini
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (01 Apr 2019)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 Apr 2019) by Olivier Gagliardini
AR by User deleted account on behalf of the Authors (09 Apr 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.