Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response  of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change

Bulthuis, Kevin; Arnst, Maarten; Sun, Sainan; Pattyn, Frank

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019

Articles | Volume 13, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

24 Apr 2019

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 24 Apr 2019

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change

Kevin Bulthuis, Maarten Arnst, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn

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Final revised paper (published on 24 Apr 2019)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 10 Dec 2018)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of ``Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change''', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Jan 2019
- AC1: 'Response to anonymous referee 1', Kevin Bulthuis, 18 Jan 2019
RC2: 'Review', Andy Aschwanden, 01 Feb 2019
- AC2: 'Response to Andy Aschwanden', Kevin Bulthuis, 13 Feb 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by User deleted account on behalf of the Authors (12 Mar 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Mar 2019) by Olivier Gagliardini

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (01 Apr 2019)

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 Apr 2019) by Olivier Gagliardini

AR by User deleted account on behalf of the Authors (09 Apr 2019) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.