The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
24 Apr 2019
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 24 Apr 2019

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change

Kevin Bulthuis, Maarten Arnst, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn

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Short summary
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.
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