Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
Kevin Bulthuis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Computational and Stochastic Modeling, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Maarten Arnst
Computational and Stochastic Modeling, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
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55 citations as recorded by crossref.
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54 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physical processes and feedbacks obscuring the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet D. Li 10.1016/j.geogeo.2022.100084
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
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- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
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- Numerical Modeling Shows Increased Fracturing Due to Melt-Undercutting Prior to Major Calving at Bowdoin Glacier E. van Dongen et al. 10.3389/feart.2020.00253
- Inferring the Basal Friction Law From Long Term Changes of Glacier Length, Thickness and Velocity on an Alpine Glacier A. Gilbert et al. 10.1029/2023GL104503
- Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges E. Hanna et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102976
- Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.3390/w11071507
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- The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- Subglacial hydrology modulates basal sliding response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing E. Kazmierczak et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022
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- Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise A. Robel et al. 10.1073/pnas.1904822116
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- Melting ice and rising seas – connecting projected change in Antarctica’s ice sheets to communities in Aotearoa New Zealand R. Levy et al. 10.1080/03036758.2023.2232743
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- Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century I. Nias et al. 10.1029/2022JF006914
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- Thermal controls on ice stream shear margins P. Hunter et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.118
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1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Discussed (preprint)
Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to...