Articles | Volume 9, issue 6
The Cryosphere, 9, 2429–2446, 2015
The Cryosphere, 9, 2429–2446, 2015
Research article
 | Highlight paper
21 Dec 2015
Research article  | Highlight paper | 21 Dec 2015

Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

D. N. Goldberg et al.

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Cited articles

Arthern, R. J.: Exploring the use of transformation group priors and the method of maximum relative entropy for Bayesian glaciological inversions, J. Glaciol., 61, 947–962,, 2015.
Arthern, R. J., Winebrenner, D. P., and Vaughan, D. G.: Antarctic snow accumulation mapped using polarization of 4.3-cm wavelength microwave emission, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D06107,, 2006.
Blair, B. and Hofton, M.: IceBridge LVIS L2 Geolocated Surface Elevation Product, v1, (last access: December 2012), 2010.
Cuffey, K. and Paterson, W. S. B.: The Physics of Glaciers, 4th Edn., Butterworth Heinemann, Oxford, 2010.
Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Favier, L., Zwinger, T., and le Meur, E.: Impact of bedrock description on modeling ice sheet dynamics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20501,, 2011.
Short summary
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface elevation and velocity, a novel procedure in glaciology and in particular for an ice stream with a dynamic grounding line. We show this procedure gives a level of confidence in model projections that cannot be achieved through more commonly used glaciological data assimilation methods. We show that Smith Glacier is in a state of retreat regardless of climatic forcing for the next several decades.