Articles | Volume 9, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
21 Dec 2015
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 21 Dec 2015
Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration
Univ. of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, UK
P. Heimbach
University of Texas, Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences/Institute for Geophysics, Austin, Texas, USA
I. Joughin
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
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- Four‐decade record of pervasive grounding line retreat along the Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica F. Christie et al. 10.1002/2016GL068972
- Committed retreat: controls on glacier disequilibrium in a warming climate J. CHRISTIAN et al. 10.1017/jog.2018.57
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- Bathymetric Influences on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Melt Rates D. Goldberg et al. 10.1029/2020JC016370
- Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) S. Sun et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.67
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- Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling H. Goelzer et al. 10.1007/s40641-017-0073-y
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- Modeling the Response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden and Zachariae Isstrøm Glaciers, Greenland, to Ocean Forcing Over the Next Century Y. Choi et al. 10.1002/2017GL075174
- Sensitivity of ice sheet surface velocity and elevation to variations in basal friction and topography in the full Stokes and shallow-shelf approximation frameworks using adjoint equations G. Cheng et al. 10.5194/tc-15-715-2021
- Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations G. Cheng & P. Lötstedt 10.5194/tc-14-673-2020
- Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration J. Sutter et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021
- Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change H. Åkesson et al. 10.5194/tc-11-281-2017
- Reconstructing subglacial lake activity with an altimetry-based inverse method A. Stubblefield et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.90
- Data‐Driven Inference of the Mechanics of Slip Along Glacier Beds Using Physics‐Informed Neural Networks: Case Study on Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica B. Riel et al. 10.1029/2021MS002621
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- Changes in flow of Crosson and Dotson ice shelves, West Antarctica, in response to elevated melt D. Lilien et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1415-2018
- High-Resolution Mass Trends of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through a Spectral Combination of Satellite Gravimetry and Radar Altimetry Observations I. Sasgen et al. 10.3390/rs11020144
- The Impact of Basal Roughness on Inland Thwaites Glacier Sliding A. Hoffman et al. 10.1029/2021GL096564
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- An approach to computing discrete adjoints for MPI-parallelized models applied to Ice Sheet System Model 4.11 E. Larour et al. 10.5194/gmd-9-3907-2016
- The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling F. Pattyn 10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws H. Yu et al. 10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018
- Melt at grounding line controls observed and future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers D. Lilien et al. 10.5194/tc-13-2817-2019
- The Relative Impacts of Initialization and Climate Forcing in Coupled Ice Sheet‐Ocean Modeling: Application to Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers D. Goldberg & P. Holland 10.1029/2021JF006570
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
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- Deep learning the flow law of Antarctic ice shelves Y. Wang et al. 10.1126/science.adp3300
- Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021 B. Davison et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi0186
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Short summary
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface elevation and velocity, a novel procedure in glaciology and in particular for an ice stream with a dynamic grounding line. We show this procedure gives a level of confidence in model projections that cannot be achieved through more commonly used glaciological data assimilation methods. We show that Smith Glacier is in a state of retreat regardless of climatic forcing for the next several decades.
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface...
