Articles | Volume 9, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
21 Dec 2015
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 21 Dec 2015
Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration
Univ. of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, UK
P. Heimbach
University of Texas, Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences/Institute for Geophysics, Austin, Texas, USA
I. Joughin
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
Viewed
Total article views: 8,259 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 25 Aug 2015)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,116 | 1,794 | 349 | 8,259 | 308 | 339 |
- HTML: 6,116
- PDF: 1,794
- XML: 349
- Total: 8,259
- BibTeX: 308
- EndNote: 339
Total article views: 7,454 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 21 Dec 2015)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,714 | 1,424 | 316 | 7,454 | 288 | 319 |
- HTML: 5,714
- PDF: 1,424
- XML: 316
- Total: 7,454
- BibTeX: 288
- EndNote: 319
Total article views: 805 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 25 Aug 2015)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 402 | 370 | 33 | 805 | 20 | 20 |
- HTML: 402
- PDF: 370
- XML: 33
- Total: 805
- BibTeX: 20
- EndNote: 20
Cited
51 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet S. Price et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017
- SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD L. Logan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020
- Widespread Moulin Formation During Supraglacial Lake Drainages in Greenland M. Hoffman et al. 10.1002/2017GL075659
- Four‐decade record of pervasive grounding line retreat along the Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica F. Christie et al. 10.1002/2016GL068972
- Committed retreat: controls on glacier disequilibrium in a warming climate J. CHRISTIAN et al. 10.1017/jog.2018.57
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone A. Chartrand et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024
- Bathymetric Influences on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Melt Rates D. Goldberg et al. 10.1029/2020JC016370
- Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) S. Sun et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.67
- Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland E. Carnahan et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022
- Source-to-source adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation of an ice sheet model written in C L. Hascoët & M. Morlighem 10.1080/10556788.2017.1396600
- Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling H. Goelzer et al. 10.1007/s40641-017-0073-y
- initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019
- Modeling the Response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden and Zachariae Isstrøm Glaciers, Greenland, to Ocean Forcing Over the Next Century Y. Choi et al. 10.1002/2017GL075174
- Sensitivity of ice sheet surface velocity and elevation to variations in basal friction and topography in the full Stokes and shallow-shelf approximation frameworks using adjoint equations G. Cheng et al. 10.5194/tc-15-715-2021
- Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations G. Cheng & P. Lötstedt 10.5194/tc-14-673-2020
- Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration J. Sutter et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021
- Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change H. Åkesson et al. 10.5194/tc-11-281-2017
- Reconstructing subglacial lake activity with an altimetry-based inverse method A. Stubblefield et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.90
- Data‐Driven Inference of the Mechanics of Slip Along Glacier Beds Using Physics‐Informed Neural Networks: Case Study on Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica B. Riel et al. 10.1029/2021MS002621
- Impact of time-dependent data assimilation on ice flow model initialization and projections: a case study of Kjer Glacier, Greenland Y. Choi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023
- Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations J. Badgeley et al. 10.1073/pnas.2411904122
- Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models S. Nowicki et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020
- Changes in flow of Crosson and Dotson ice shelves, West Antarctica, in response to elevated melt D. Lilien et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1415-2018
- High-Resolution Mass Trends of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through a Spectral Combination of Satellite Gravimetry and Radar Altimetry Observations I. Sasgen et al. 10.3390/rs11020144
- The Impact of Basal Roughness on Inland Thwaites Glacier Sliding A. Hoffman et al. 10.1029/2021GL096564
- Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter F. Gillet-Chaulet 10.5194/tc-14-811-2020
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- An approach to computing discrete adjoints for MPI-parallelized models applied to Ice Sheet System Model 4.11 E. Larour et al. 10.5194/gmd-9-3907-2016
- The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling F. Pattyn 10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws H. Yu et al. 10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018
- Melt at grounding line controls observed and future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers D. Lilien et al. 10.5194/tc-13-2817-2019
- The Relative Impacts of Initialization and Climate Forcing in Coupled Ice Sheet‐Ocean Modeling: Application to Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers D. Goldberg & P. Holland 10.1029/2021JF006570
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Progress in Numerical Modeling of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Dynamics F. Pattyn et al. 10.1007/s40641-017-0069-7
- Joint Inversion for Surface Accumulation Rate and Geothermal Heat Flow From Ice‐Penetrating Radar Observations at Dome A, East Antarctica. Part I: Model Description, Data Constraints, and Inversion Results M. Wolovick et al. 10.1029/2020JF005937
- Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning C. Greene et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05037-w
- Future Evolution of Greenland's Marine‐Terminating Outlet Glaciers G. Catania et al. 10.1029/2018JF004873
- Analytical solutions for the advective–diffusive ice column in the presence of strain heating D. Moreno-Parada et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. 10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges E. Hanna et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102976
- How Accurately Should We Model Ice Shelf Melt Rates? D. Goldberg et al. 10.1029/2018GL080383
- The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing J. Christian et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020
- Deep learning the flow law of Antarctic ice shelves Y. Wang et al. 10.1126/science.adp3300
- The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast D. Brinkerhoff et al. 10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025
- Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021 B. Davison et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi0186
- fenics_ice 1.0: a framework for quantifying initialization uncertainty for time-dependent ice sheet models C. Koziol et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-5843-2021
- Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022 C. Greene et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2
- Grounding line retreat of Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, West Antarctica, measured with Sentinel‐1a radar interferometry data B. Scheuchl et al. 10.1002/2016GL069287
50 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet S. Price et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017
- SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD L. Logan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020
- Widespread Moulin Formation During Supraglacial Lake Drainages in Greenland M. Hoffman et al. 10.1002/2017GL075659
- Four‐decade record of pervasive grounding line retreat along the Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica F. Christie et al. 10.1002/2016GL068972
- Committed retreat: controls on glacier disequilibrium in a warming climate J. CHRISTIAN et al. 10.1017/jog.2018.57
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone A. Chartrand et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024
- Bathymetric Influences on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Melt Rates D. Goldberg et al. 10.1029/2020JC016370
- Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) S. Sun et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.67
- Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland E. Carnahan et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022
- Source-to-source adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation of an ice sheet model written in C L. Hascoët & M. Morlighem 10.1080/10556788.2017.1396600
- Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling H. Goelzer et al. 10.1007/s40641-017-0073-y
- initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019
- Modeling the Response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden and Zachariae Isstrøm Glaciers, Greenland, to Ocean Forcing Over the Next Century Y. Choi et al. 10.1002/2017GL075174
- Sensitivity of ice sheet surface velocity and elevation to variations in basal friction and topography in the full Stokes and shallow-shelf approximation frameworks using adjoint equations G. Cheng et al. 10.5194/tc-15-715-2021
- Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations G. Cheng & P. Lötstedt 10.5194/tc-14-673-2020
- Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration J. Sutter et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021
- Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change H. Åkesson et al. 10.5194/tc-11-281-2017
- Reconstructing subglacial lake activity with an altimetry-based inverse method A. Stubblefield et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.90
- Data‐Driven Inference of the Mechanics of Slip Along Glacier Beds Using Physics‐Informed Neural Networks: Case Study on Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica B. Riel et al. 10.1029/2021MS002621
- Impact of time-dependent data assimilation on ice flow model initialization and projections: a case study of Kjer Glacier, Greenland Y. Choi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023
- Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations J. Badgeley et al. 10.1073/pnas.2411904122
- Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models S. Nowicki et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020
- Changes in flow of Crosson and Dotson ice shelves, West Antarctica, in response to elevated melt D. Lilien et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1415-2018
- High-Resolution Mass Trends of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through a Spectral Combination of Satellite Gravimetry and Radar Altimetry Observations I. Sasgen et al. 10.3390/rs11020144
- The Impact of Basal Roughness on Inland Thwaites Glacier Sliding A. Hoffman et al. 10.1029/2021GL096564
- Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter F. Gillet-Chaulet 10.5194/tc-14-811-2020
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- An approach to computing discrete adjoints for MPI-parallelized models applied to Ice Sheet System Model 4.11 E. Larour et al. 10.5194/gmd-9-3907-2016
- The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling F. Pattyn 10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws H. Yu et al. 10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018
- Melt at grounding line controls observed and future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers D. Lilien et al. 10.5194/tc-13-2817-2019
- The Relative Impacts of Initialization and Climate Forcing in Coupled Ice Sheet‐Ocean Modeling: Application to Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers D. Goldberg & P. Holland 10.1029/2021JF006570
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Progress in Numerical Modeling of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Dynamics F. Pattyn et al. 10.1007/s40641-017-0069-7
- Joint Inversion for Surface Accumulation Rate and Geothermal Heat Flow From Ice‐Penetrating Radar Observations at Dome A, East Antarctica. Part I: Model Description, Data Constraints, and Inversion Results M. Wolovick et al. 10.1029/2020JF005937
- Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning C. Greene et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05037-w
- Future Evolution of Greenland's Marine‐Terminating Outlet Glaciers G. Catania et al. 10.1029/2018JF004873
- Analytical solutions for the advective–diffusive ice column in the presence of strain heating D. Moreno-Parada et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. 10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges E. Hanna et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102976
- How Accurately Should We Model Ice Shelf Melt Rates? D. Goldberg et al. 10.1029/2018GL080383
- The contrasting response of outlet glaciers to interior and ocean forcing J. Christian et al. 10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020
- Deep learning the flow law of Antarctic ice shelves Y. Wang et al. 10.1126/science.adp3300
- The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast D. Brinkerhoff et al. 10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025
- Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021 B. Davison et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi0186
- fenics_ice 1.0: a framework for quantifying initialization uncertainty for time-dependent ice sheet models C. Koziol et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-5843-2021
- Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022 C. Greene et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2
Saved (final revised paper)
Saved (preprint)
Latest update: 10 Jul 2025
Short summary
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface elevation and velocity, a novel procedure in glaciology and in particular for an ice stream with a dynamic grounding line. We show this procedure gives a level of confidence in model projections that cannot be achieved through more commonly used glaciological data assimilation methods. We show that Smith Glacier is in a state of retreat regardless of climatic forcing for the next several decades.
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface...
