Articles | Volume 9, issue 6
Research article
 | Highlight paper
21 Dec 2015
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 21 Dec 2015

Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

D. N. Goldberg, P. Heimbach, I. Joughin, and B. Smith


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Short summary
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface elevation and velocity, a novel procedure in glaciology and in particular for an ice stream with a dynamic grounding line. We show this procedure gives a level of confidence in model projections that cannot be achieved through more commonly used glaciological data assimilation methods. We show that Smith Glacier is in a state of retreat regardless of climatic forcing for the next several decades.