Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 15 Nov 2024
| 15 Nov 2024
Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt
Applied Mathematics Group, Computational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
Matthew J. Hoffman
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Nathan M. Urban
Applied Mathematics Group, Computational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
Trevor Hillebrand
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Mauro Perego
Center for Computing Research, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA
Stephen Price
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
John D. Jakeman
Center for Computing Research, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA
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We investigate how future observations may reduce uncertainty in sea-level contribution from the Amery Ice Shelf sector of Antarctica. Under a high-emissions scenario, we found that observations through 2100 are unlikely to narrow projections, but those collected after ocean warming triggers major glacier changes could reduce uncertainty in 2200 and 2300 projections. This study highlights that value of observations depends not just on more data, but also on system response to forcing.
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Matthew J. Hoffman, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Darin Comeau, Alice Barthel, Stephen F. Price, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
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Hyein Jeong, Adrian K. Turner, Andrew F. Roberts, Milena Veneziani, Stephen F. Price, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Luke P. Van Roekel, Wuyin Lin, Peter M. Caldwell, Hyo-Seok Park, Jonathan D. Wolfe, and Azamat Mametjanov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2681–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, 2023
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We find that E3SM-HR reproduces the main features of the Antarctic coastal polynyas. Despite the high amount of coastal sea ice production, the densest water masses are formed in the open ocean. Biases related to the lack of dense water formation are associated with overly strong atmospheric polar easterlies. Our results indicate that the large-scale polar atmospheric circulation must be accurately simulated in models to properly reproduce Antarctic dense water formation.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
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Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, and Ian M. Howat
The Cryosphere, 16, 4679–4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, 2022
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We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
Alexander O. Hager, Matthew J. Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Dustin M. Schroeder
The Cryosphere, 16, 3575–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, 2022
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The presence of water beneath glaciers is a control on glacier speed and ocean-caused melting, yet it has been unclear whether sizable volumes of water can exist beneath Antarctic glaciers or how this water may flow along the glacier bed. We use computer simulations, supported by observations, to show that enough water exists at the base of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, to form "rivers" beneath the glacier. These rivers likely moderate glacier speed and may influence its rate of retreat.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, John O. Stone, Michelle Koutnik, Courtney King, Howard Conway, Brenda Hall, Keir Nichols, Brent Goehring, and Mette K. Gillespie
The Cryosphere, 15, 3329–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, 2021
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We present chronologies from Darwin and Hatherton glaciers to better constrain ice sheet retreat during the last deglaciation in the Ross Sector of Antarctica. We use a glacier flowband model and an ensemble of 3D ice sheet model simulations to show that (i) the whole glacier system likely thinned steadily from about 9–3 ka, and (ii) the grounding line likely reached the Darwin–Hatherton Glacier System at about 3 ka, which is ≥3.8 kyr later than was suggested by previous reconstructions.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Nathan M. Urban
The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, 2021
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Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures and have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in rise amount and timing remain largely unquantified. To facilitate uncertainty quantification, we use a high-resolution ice sheet model to build, test, and validate an ice sheet emulator and generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years in the future.
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Short summary
We investigate potential sea-level rise from Antarctica's Lambert Glacier, once considered stable but now at risk due to projected ocean warming by 2100. Using statistical methods and limited supercomputer simulations, we calibrated our ice-sheet model using three observables. We find that, under high greenhouse gas emissions, glacier retreat could raise sea levels by 46–133 mm by 2300. This study highlights the need for better observations to reduce uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections.
We investigate potential sea-level rise from Antarctica's Lambert Glacier, once considered...
