Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
Research article
 | 
15 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 15 Nov 2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Sanket Jantre, Matthew J. Hoffman, Nathan M. Urban, Trevor Hillebrand, Mauro Perego, Stephen Price, and John D. Jakeman

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Cited articles

Alevropoulos-Borrill, A. V., Nias, I. J., Payne, A. J., Golledge, N. R., and Bingham, R. J.: Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100, The Cryosphere, 14, 1245–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, 2020. a
Andreasen, J. R., Hogg, A. E., and Selley, H. L.: Change in Antarctic ice shelf area from 2009 to 2019, The Cryosphere, 17, 2059–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2059-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d
Aschwanden, A. and Brinkerhoff, D. J.: Calibrated Mass Loss Predictions for the Greenland Ice Sheet, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099058, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099058, 2022. a
Bassis, J. and Ma, Y.: Evolution of Basal Crevasses Links Ice Shelf Stability to Ocean Forcing, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 409, 203–211, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.11.003, 2015. a, b
Bassis, J. and Walker, C.: Upper and Lower Limits on the Stability of Calving Glaciers from the Yield Strength Envelope of Ice, P. Roy. Soc. A-Math. Phy., 468, 913–931, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2011.0422, 2012. a, b
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We investigate potential sea-level rise from Antarctica's Lambert Glacier, once considered stable but now at risk due to projected ocean warming by 2100. Using statistical methods and limited supercomputer simulations, we calibrated our ice-sheet model using three observables. We find that, under high greenhouse gas emissions, glacier retreat could raise sea levels by 46–133 mm by 2300. This study highlights the need for better observations to reduce uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections.
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