The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
Research article
 | 
15 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 15 Nov 2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Sanket Jantre, Matthew J. Hoffman, Nathan M. Urban, Trevor Hillebrand, Mauro Perego, Stephen Price, and John D. Jakeman

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Latest update: 28 Oct 2025
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Short summary
We investigate potential sea-level rise from Antarctica's Lambert Glacier, once considered stable but now at risk due to projected ocean warming by 2100. Using statistical methods and limited supercomputer simulations, we calibrated our ice-sheet model using three observables. We find that, under high greenhouse gas emissions, glacier retreat could raise sea levels by 46–133 mm by 2300. This study highlights the need for better observations to reduce uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections.
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Improving the contribution of the land cryosphere to sea level...