Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences,
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Andrew Zammit-Mangion
School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics and Securing
Antarctica's Environmental Future, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New
South Wales, Australia
Jonathan Rougier
School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Geoffrey Dawson
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences,
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Jonathan L. Bamber
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences,
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Data Science in Earth
Observation, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Related authors
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 17, 1003–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1003-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica have the potential to make a significant contribution to future sea-level rise. We used a combination of different satellite measurements to show that the grounding lines have been retreating along the fast-flowing ice streams across these two glaciers. We also found two tide-modulated ocean channels that might open new pathways for the warm ocean water to enter the ice shelf cavity.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 535–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate knowledge of the Antarctic grounding zone is important for mass balance calculation, ice sheet stability assessment, and ice sheet model projections. Here we present the first ICESat-2-derived high-resolution grounding zone product of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including three important boundaries. This new data product will provide more comprehensive insights into ice sheet instability, which is valuable for both the cryosphere and sea level science communities.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 14, 3629–3643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3629-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3629-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate knowledge of the Antarctic grounding zone is critical for the understanding of ice sheet instability and the evaluation of mass balance. We present a new, fully automated method to map the grounding zone from ICESat-2 laser altimetry. Our results of Larsen C Ice Shelf demonstrate the efficiency, density, and high spatial accuracy with which ICESat-2 can image complex grounding zones.
Anne Braakmann-Folgmann, Jack C. Landy, Geoffrey Dawson, and Robert Ricker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2789, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To calculate sea ice thickness from altimetry, returns from ice and leads need to be differentiated. During summer, melt ponds complicate this task, as they resemble leads. In this study, we improve a previously suggested neural network classifier by expanding the training dataset fivefold, tuning the network architecture and introducing an additional class for thinned floes. We show that this increases the accuracy from 77 ± 5 % to 84 ± 2 % and that more leads are found.
Adam Igneczi and Jonathan Louis Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3203–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3203-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3203-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater from Arctic land ice loss strongly affects the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans. Datasets describing this freshwater discharge have low resolution and do not cover the entire Arctic. We statistically enhanced coarse-resolution climate model data – from approximately 6 km to 250 m – and routed meltwater towards the coastlines to provide high-resolution data covering all Arctic regions. This approach has far fewer computational requirements than running climate models at high resolution.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anne Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Viola Steidl, Jonathan Louis Bamber, and Xiao Xiang Zhu
The Cryosphere, 19, 645–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-645-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-645-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier ice thickness is difficult to measure directly but is essential for glacier evolution modelling. In this work, we employ a novel approach combining physical knowledge and data-driven machine learning to estimate the ice thickness of multiple glaciers in Spitsbergen, Barentsøya, and Edgeøya in Svalbard. We identify challenges for the physics-aware machine learning model and opportunities for improving the accuracy and physical consistency that would also apply to other geophysical tasks.
Tian Li, Konrad Heidler, Lichao Mou, Ádám Ignéczi, Xiao Xiang Zhu, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 919–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study uses deep learning to produce a new high-resolution calving front dataset for 149 marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, containing 124 919 terminus traces. This dataset offers insights into understanding calving mechanisms and can help improve glacier frontal ablation estimates as a component of the integrated mass balance assessment.
Geoffrey J. Dawson and Jack C. Landy
The Cryosphere, 17, 4165–4178, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4165-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we compared measurements from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 over Arctic summer sea ice to understand any possible biases between the two satellites. We found that there is a difference when we measure elevation over summer sea ice using CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2, and this is likely due to surface melt ponds. The differences we found were in good agreement with theoretical predictions, and this work will be valuable for summer sea ice thickness measurements from both altimeters.
Isolde A. Glissenaar, Jack C. Landy, David G. Babb, Geoffrey J. Dawson, and Stephen E. L. Howell
The Cryosphere, 17, 3269–3289, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of large-scale ice thickness have unfortunately only been available since 2003, a short record for researching trends and variability. We generated a proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic for 1996–2020. This is the longest available record for large-scale sea ice thickness available to date and the first record reliably covering the channels between the islands in northern Canada. The product shows that sea ice has thinned by 21 cm over the 25-year record in April.
Benoit S. Lecavalier, Lev Tarasov, Greg Balco, Perry Spector, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Christo Buizert, Catherine Ritz, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Robert Mulvaney, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, and Jonathan Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3573–3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution constraint database version 2 (AntICE2) consists of a large variety of observations that constrain the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last glacial cycle. This includes observations of past ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. The database is intended to improve our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for ice sheet model calibrations.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 17, 1003–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1003-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica have the potential to make a significant contribution to future sea-level rise. We used a combination of different satellite measurements to show that the grounding lines have been retreating along the fast-flowing ice streams across these two glaciers. We also found two tide-modulated ocean channels that might open new pathways for the warm ocean water to enter the ice shelf cavity.
Angharad C. Stell, Michael Bertolacci, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Matthew Rigby, Paul J. Fraser, Christina M. Harth, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Manfredi Manizza, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss, Dickon Young, and Anita L. Ganesan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12945–12960, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12945-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12945-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions over 2011–2020, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0° and 30°N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020.
Sam Royston, Rory J. Bingham, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Ocean Sci., 18, 1093–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes and increases uncertainty in observed trend and acceleration estimates. We use numerical ocean models to determine the magnitude of decadal variability we might expect in sea-level trends at coastal locations around the world, resulting from natural, internal variability. A proportion of that variability can be replicated from known climate modes, giving a range to add to short- to mid-term projections of regional sea-level trends.
Tom Mitcham, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the response of the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and its tributary glaciers to the calving of the A68 iceberg and validated our results with observations. We found that the impact was limited, confirming that mostly passive ice was calved. Through further calving experiments we quantified the total buttressing provided by the LCIS and found that over 80 % of the buttressing capacity is generated in the first 5 km of the ice shelf downstream of the grounding line.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 535–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate knowledge of the Antarctic grounding zone is important for mass balance calculation, ice sheet stability assessment, and ice sheet model projections. Here we present the first ICESat-2-derived high-resolution grounding zone product of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including three important boundaries. This new data product will provide more comprehensive insights into ice sheet instability, which is valuable for both the cryosphere and sea level science communities.
Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Bertolacci, Jenny Fisher, Ann Stavert, Matthew Rigby, Yi Cao, and Noel Cressie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 45–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-45-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a framework for estimating the sources and sinks (flux) of carbon dioxide from satellite data. The framework is statistical and yields measures of uncertainty alongside all estimates of flux and other parameters in the underlying model. It also allows us to generate other insights, such as the size of errors and biases in the data. The primary aim of this research was to develop a fully statistical flux inversion framework for use by atmospheric scientists.
Fanny Lehmann, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, and Jonathan Bamber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 35–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-35-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-35-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many data sources are available to evaluate components of the water cycle (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and terrestrial water storage). Despite this variety, it remains unclear how different combinations of datasets satisfy the conservation of mass. We conducted the most comprehensive analysis of water budget closure on a global scale to date. Our results can serve as a basis to select appropriate datasets for regional hydrological studies.
Daniel J. Lunt, Deepak Chandan, Alan M. Haywood, George M. Lunt, Jonathan C. Rougier, Ulrich Salzmann, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Paul J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4307–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4307-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Often in science we carry out experiments with computers in which several factors are explored, for example, in the field of climate science, how the factors of greenhouse gases, ice, and vegetation affect temperature. We can explore the relative importance of these factors by
swapping in and outdifferent values of these factors, and can also carry out experiments with many different combinations of these factors. This paper discusses how best to analyse the results from such experiments.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 14, 3629–3643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3629-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3629-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate knowledge of the Antarctic grounding zone is critical for the understanding of ice sheet instability and the evaluation of mass balance. We present a new, fully automated method to map the grounding zone from ICESat-2 laser altimetry. Our results of Larsen C Ice Shelf demonstrate the efficiency, density, and high spatial accuracy with which ICESat-2 can image complex grounding zones.
Cited articles
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Siegfried, M. R., Padman, L., Paolo, F. S.,
and Ligtenberg, S. R. M.: Variable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula
Ice Shelves, 1994–2016, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4086–4095,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076652, 2018 (data available at: https://sealevel.nasa.gov/data/dataset/?identifier=SLCP_AP_iceshelf_mass_balance_1 (last access: 15 April 2021).
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M. R.:
Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from
Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 616–620,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0616-z, 2020.
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019.
Bamber, J. L. and Dawson, G. J.: Complex evolving patterns of mass loss from
Antarctica's largest glacier, Nat. Geosci., 13, 127–131,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0527-z, 2020.
Bamber, J. L., Westaway, R. M., Marzeion, B., and Wouters, B.: The land ice
contribution to sea level during the satellite era, Environ. Res. Lett.,
13, 063008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f0, 2018.
Barletta, V. R., Bevis, M., Smith, B. E., Wilson, T., Brown, A., Bordoni,
A., Willis, M., Khan, S. A., Rovira-Navarro, M., Dalziel, I., Smalley, R.,
Kendrick, E., Konfal, S., Caccamise, D. J., Aster, R. C., Nyblade, A., and
Wiens, D. A.: Observed rapid bedrock uplift in amundsen sea embayment
promotes ice-sheet stability, Science, 360, 1335–1339,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao1447, 2018.
Bodart, J. A. and Bingham, R. J.: The Impact of the Extreme 2015–2016 El
Niño on the Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 46, 13862–13871, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084466, 2019.
Borsa, A. A., Moholdt, G., Fricker, H. A., and Brunt, K. M.: A range correction for ICESat and its potential impact on ice-sheet mass balance studies, The Cryosphere, 8, 345–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-345-2014, 2014.
Christie, F. D. W., Bingham, R. G., Gourmelen, N., Tett, S. F. B., and Muto,
A.: Four-decade record of pervasive grounding line retreat along the
Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
5741–5749, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068972, 2016.
Chuter, S. J., Martín-Español, A., Wouters, B., and Bamber, J. L.:
Mass balance reassessment of glaciers draining into the Abbot and Getz Ice
Shelves of West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7328–7337,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073087, 2017.
Cook, A. J., Murray, T., Luckman, A., Vaughan, D. G., and Barrand, N. E.: A new 100-m Digital Elevation Model of the Antarctic Peninsula derived from ASTER Global DEM: methods and accuracy assessment, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 4, 129–142, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-4-129-2012, 2012.
Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg,
S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Synthesized grounding line
and ice shelf mask for Antarctica, Supplement to Depoorter, M. A., Bamber,
J. L., Griggs, J., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van
den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G., Calving fluxes basal melt rates
Antarct. ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.819151,
2013.
ESA: CryoTEMPO-EOLIS: Elevation Over Land Ice from Swath, ESA [data set], https://www.cryotempo-eolis.org, last access: 10 December 2020.
Fahnestock, M., Scambos, T., Moon, T., Gardner, A., Haran, T., and Klinger,
M.: Rapid large-area mapping of ice flow using Landsat 8, Remote Sens.
Environ., 185, 84–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.11.023, 2015.
Flament, T. and Rémy, F.: Dynamic thinning of Antarctic glaciers from
along-track repeat radar altimetry, J. Glaciol., 58, 830–840,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J118, 2012.
Gardner, A. S., Moholdt, G., Scambos, T., Fahnstock, M., Ligtenberg, S., van den Broeke, M., and Nilsson, J.: Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years, The Cryosphere, 12, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018.
Gourmelen, N., Goldberg, D. N., Snow, K., Henley, S. F., Bingham, R. G.,
Kimura, S., Hogg, A. E., Shepherd, A., Mouginot, J., Lenaerts, J. T. M.,
Ligtenberg, S. R. M., and van de Berg, W. J.: Channelized Melting Drives
Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
44, 9796–9804, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074929, 2017.
Gourmelen, N., Escorihuela, M. J., Shepherd, A., Foresta, L., Muir, A.,
Garcia-Mondéjar, A., Roca, M., Baker, S. G., and Drinkwater, M. R.:
CryoSat-2 swath interferometric altimetry for mapping ice elevation and
elevation change, Adv. Sp. Res., 62, 1226–1242,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.11.014, 2018 (data availabe at:
https://science-pds.cryosat.esa.int/, last access: 10 December 2020).
Gray, L., Burgess, D., Copland, L., Cullen, R., Galin, N., Hawley, R., and Helm, V.: Interferometric swath processing of Cryosat data for glacial ice topography, The Cryosphere, 7, 1857–1867, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1857-2013, 2013.
Hofton, M. A., Luthcke, S. B., and Blair, J. B.: Estimation of ICESat
intercampaign elevation biases from comparison of lidar data in East
Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5698–5703,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057652, 2013.
Hogg, A. E., Shepherd, A., Cornford, S. L., Briggs, K. H., Gourmelen, N.,
Graham, J. A., Joughin, I., Mouginot, J., Nagler, T., Payne, A. J., Rignot,
E., and Wuite, J.: Increased ice flow in Western Palmer Land linked to ocean
melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 4159–4167, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072110,
2017.
Howat, I. M., Smith, B. E., Joughin, I., and Scambos, T. A.: Rates of
southeast Greenland ice volume loss from combined ICESat and ASTER
observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17505, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034496, 2008.
Howat, I. M., Porter, C., Smith, B. E., Noh, M.-J., and Morin, P.: The Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 13, 665–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-665-2019, 2019.
Landerer, F. W., Flechtner, F. M., Save, H., Webb, F. H., Bandikova, T.,
Bertiger, W. I., Bettadpur, S. V., Byun, S. H., Dahle, C., Dobslaw, H.,
Fahnestock, E., Harvey, N., Kang, Z., Kruizinga, G. L. H., Loomis, B. D.,
McCullough, C., Murböck, M., Nagel, P., Paik, M., Pie, N., Poole, S.,
Strekalov, D., Tamisiea, M. E., Wang, F., Watkins, M. M., Wen, H. Y., Wiese,
D. N., and Yuan, D. N.: Extending the Global Mass Change Data Record: GRACE
Follow-On Instrument and Science Data Performance, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
47, e2020GL088306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088306, 2020.
Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Adhikari, S., Ivins, E., Caron, L., Morlighem, M., and Schlegel, N.: Slowdown in Antarctic mass loss from solid Earth and
sea-level feedbacks, Science, 364, eaav7908,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7908, 2019.
Martín-Español, A., Zammit-Mangion, A., Clarke, P. J., Flament, T.,
Helm, V., King, M. A., Luthcke, S. B., Petrie, E., Rémy, F., Schön,
N., Wouters, B., and Bamber, J. L.: Spatial and temporal Antarctic Ice Sheet
mass trends, glacio-isostatic adjustment, and surface processes from a joint
inversion of satellite altimeter, gravity, and GPS data, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 182–200, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003550, 2016.
McMillan, M., Shepherd, A., Sundal, A., Briggs, K., Muir, A., Ridout, A.,
Hogg, A., and Wingham, D.: Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by
CryoSat-2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3899–3905,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060111, 2014.
Medley, B. and Thomas, E. R.: Increased snowfall over the Antarctic Ice
Sheet mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Chang., 9,
34–39, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0356-x, 2019.
Moholdt, G., Nuth, C., Hagen, J. O., and Kohler, J.: Recent elevation changes
of Svalbard glaciers derived from ICESat laser altimetry, Remote Sens.
Environ., 114, 2756–2767, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.06.008, 2010.
Mouginot, J., Scheuch, B., and Rignot, E.: Mapping of ice motion in
antarctica using synthetic-aperture radar data, Remote Sens., 4,
2753–2767, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs4092753, 2012.
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., and Scheuchl, B.: Sustained increase in ice
discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to
2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1576–1584, 2014.
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Scheuchl, B., and Millan, R.: Comprehensive Annual
Ice Sheet Velocity Mapping Using Landsat-8, Sentinel-1, and RADARSAT-2 Data,
Remote Sens., 9, 364, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9040364, 2017.
Nield, G. A., Barletta, V. R., Bordoni, A., King, M. A., Whitehouse, P. L.,
Clarke, P. J., Domack, E., Scambos, T. A., and Berthier, E.: Rapid bedrock
uplift in the Antarctic Peninsula explained by viscoelastic response to
recent ice unloading, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 397, 32–41,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.04.019, 2014.
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., Machguth, H., Lhermitte, S., Howat, I., Fettweis, X., and van den Broeke, M. R.: A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958–2015), The Cryosphere, 10, 2361–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016.
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice
shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015.
Peltier, W. R., Argus, D. F., and Drummond, R.: Comment on “An Assessment of
the ICE-6G_C (VM5a) Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model” by
Purcell et al., J. Geophys. Res. Sol.-Ea., 123, 2019–2028,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013844, 2018.
Pogson, M. and Smith, P.: Effect of spatial data resolution on uncertainty,
Environ. Model. Softw., 63, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.021, 2015.
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts,
J. T. M.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011a.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Antarctic grounding line mapping
from differential satellite radar interferometry, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
38, L10504, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047109, 2011b.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice Flow of the Antarctic Ice
Sheet, Science, 333, 1427–1430, 2011c.
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-Shelf Melting
Around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798, 2013.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: MEaSUREs InSAR-Based Antarctica
Ice Velocity Map, Version 2, Boulder, Colorado, USA, NASA Natl. Snow Ice Data
Cent. Distrib. Act. Arch. Cent. [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/D7GK8F5J8M8R, 2017.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., van den Broeke, M., van Wessem, M.
J., and Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from
1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 1095–1103, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116, 2019.
Robel, A. A., Roe, G. H., and Haseloff, M.: Response of Marine-Terminating
Glaciers to Forcing: Time Scales, Sensitivities, Instabilities, and
Stochastic Dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 123, 2205–2227,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004709, 2018.
Rott, H., Abdel Jaber, W., Wuite, J., Scheiblauer, S., Floricioiu, D., van Wessem, J. M., Nagler, T., Miranda, N., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Changing pattern of ice flow and mass balance for glaciers discharging into the Larsen A and B embayments, Antarctic Peninsula, 2011 to 2016, The Cryosphere, 12, 1273–1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1273-2018, 2018.
Rue, H., Martino, S., and Chopin, N.: Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 71, 319–392, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x, 2009 (data available at: https://www.r-inla.org, last access: 11 August 2020).
Sasgen, I., Konrad, H., Helm, V., and Grosfeld, K.: High-Resolution Mass
Trends of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through a Spectral Combination of
Satellite Gravimetry and Radar Altimetry Observations, Remote Sens., 11,
144, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11020144, 2019.
Scambos, T. A., Bohlander, J. A., Shuman, C. A., and Skvarca, P.: Glacier
acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B
embayment, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl020670, 2004.
Scambos, T. A., Berthier, E., Haran, T., Shuman, C. A., Cook, A. J., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., and Bohlander, J.: Detailed ice loss pattern in the northern Antarctic Peninsula: widespread decline driven by ice front retreats, The Cryosphere, 8, 2135–2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2135-2014, 2014.
Schoen, N., Zammit-Mangion, A., Rougier, J. C., Flament, T., Rémy, F., Luthcke, S., and Bamber, J. L.: Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 9, 805–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-805-2015, 2015.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and
hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Surf., 112, F03s28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jf000664, 2007.
Schröder, L., Horwath, M., Dietrich, R., Helm, V., van den Broeke, M. R., and Ligtenberg, S. R. M.: Four decades of Antarctic surface elevation changes from multi-mission satellite altimetry, The Cryosphere, 13, 427–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, 2019.
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., van den Broeke, M.,
Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G.,
Nowicki, S., Payne, T., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N., Geruo, A., Agosta, C.,
Ahlstrøm, A., Babonis, G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., Bonin, J., Csatho,
B., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H.,
Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Groh, A., Gunter, B., Hanna, E., Harig, C., Helm,
V., Horvath, A., Horwath, M., Khan, S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Konrad, H., Langen,
P., Lecavalier, B., Loomis, B., Luthcke, S., McMillan, M., Melini, D.,
Mernild, S., Mohajerani, Y., Moore, P., Mouginot, J., Moyano, G., Muir, A.,
Nagler, T., Nield, G., Nilsson, J., Noel, B., Otosaka, I., Pattle, M. E.,
Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Rietbroek, R., Rott, H., Sandberg-Sørensen, L.,
Sasgen, I., Save, H., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E., Schröder, L., Seo,
K.-W., Simonsen, S., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T., Talpe, M.,
Tarasov, L., van de Berg, W. J., van der Wal, W., van Wessem, M., Dutt
Vishwakarma, B., Wiese, D., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Antarctic
Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018.
Shepherd, A., Gilbert, L., Muir, A. S., Konrad, H., McMillan, M., Slater, T., Briggs, K. H., Sundal, A. V., Hogg, A. E., and Engdahl, M. E.: Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8174–8183, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082182, 2019.
Smith, B., Fricker, H. A., Gardner, A. S., Medley, B., Nilsson, J., Paolo
Nicholas Holschuh, F. S., Adusumilli, S., Brunt, K., Csatho, B., Harbeck,
K., Markus, T., Neumann, T., Siegfried, M. R., and Jay Zwally, H.: Pervasive
ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes,
Science, 368, 1239–1242, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5845, 2020.
Storch, H. and Zwiers, F.: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612336, 1999.
Sutterley, T. C., Velicogna, I., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Flament, T., van
den Broeke, M. R., van Wessem, J. M., and Reijmer, C. H.: Mass loss of the
Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica from four independent techniques,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8421–8428, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061940, 2014.
van Wessem, J. M., Reijmer, C. H., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., Rignot, E.,
Medley, B., Joughin, I., Wouters, B., Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L.,
Lenaerts, J. T. M., De Van Berg, W. J., Van Den Broeke, M. R., and Van
Meijgaard, E.: Improved representation of East Antarctic surface mass
balance in a regional atmospheric climate model, J. Glaciol., 60,
761–770, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG14J051, 2014.
van Wessem, J. M., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Reijmer, C. H., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., Barrand, N. E., Thomas, E. R., Turner, J., Wuite, J., Scambos, T. A., and van Meijgaard, E.: The modelled surface mass balance of the Antarctic Peninsula at 5.5 km horizontal resolution, The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016.
van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018.
Wang, Y., Thomas, E. R., Hou, S., Huai, B., Wu, S., Sun, W., Qi, S., Ding,
M., and Zhang, Y.: Snow Accumulation Variability Over the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet Since 1900: A Comparison of Ice Core Records With ERA-20C Reanalysis,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11482–11490, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075135, 2017.
Watkins, M. M., Wiese, D. N., Yuan, D., Boening, C., and Landerer, F. W.:
Improved methods for observing Earth's time variable mass distribution with
GRACE using spherical cap mascons, J. Geophys. Res. Sol.-Ea., 120,
2648–2671, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011547, 2015.
WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group: Global sea-level budget 1993–present, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1551–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018, 2018.
Wiese, D. N., Landerer, F. W., and Watkins, M. M.: Quantifying and reducing
leakage errors in the JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution, Water Resour. Res.,
52, 7490–7502, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019344, 2016.
Wiese, D. N., Yuan, D.-N., Boening, C., Landerer, F. W., and Watkins, M. M.: JPL GRACE and GRACE-FO Mascon Ocean, Ice, and Hydrology Equivalent Water Height JPL RL06 Version 02, Ver. 2, PO.DAAC [data set], CA, USA, https://doi.org/10.5067/TEMSC-3MJ62, 2009.
Williams, C. R., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., and Arthern, R. J.: Frequency response
of ice streams, Proc. R. Soc. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 468,
3285–3310, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2012.0180, 2012.
Wouters, B., Martin-Español, A., Helm, V., Flament, T., van Wessem, J. M.,
Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Bamber, J. L.: Dynamic
thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula, Science,
348, 899–903, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5727, 2015.
Zammit-Mangion, A., Rougier, J., Bamber, J., and Schön, N.: Resolving the
Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling
framework, Environmetrics, 25, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2247, 2014.
Zammit-Mangion, A., Bamber, J. L., Schoen, N. W., and Rougier, J. C.: A
data-driven approach for assessing ice-sheet mass balance in space and time,
Ann. Glaciol., 56, 175–183, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A021, 2015a (data available at: https://github.com/andrewzm/MVST, last access: 1 November 2018).
Zammit-Mangion, A., Rougier, J., Schön, N., Lindgren, F., and Bamber, J.:
Multivariate spatio-temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica's
present-day contribution to sea-level rise, Environmetrics, 26, 159–177,
https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2323, 2015b (data available at: https://github.com/andrewzm/MVST, last access: 1 November 2018).
Short summary
We find the Antarctic Peninsula to have a mean mass loss of 19 ± 1.1 Gt yr−1 over the 2003–2019 period, driven predominantly by changes in ice dynamic flow like due to changes in ocean forcing. This long-term record is crucial to ascertaining the region’s present-day contribution to sea level rise, with the understanding of driving processes enabling better future predictions. Our statistical approach enables us to estimate this previously poorly surveyed regions mass balance more accurately.
We find the Antarctic Peninsula to have a mean mass loss of 19 ± 1.1 Gt yr−1 over the 2003–2019...