Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion

Chuter, Stephen J.; Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Dawson, Geoffrey; Bamber, Jonathan L.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022

Articles | Volume 16, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 4

Research article

|

12 Apr 2022

Research article |

| 12 Apr 2022

Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion

Stephen J. Chuter, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Jonathan Rougier, Geoffrey Dawson, and Jonathan L. Bamber

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022-supplement

Data sets

riable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, 1994–2016 (https://sealevel.nasa.gov/data/dataset/ ?identifier=SLCP_AP_iceshelf_mass_balance_1) S. Adusumilli, H. A. Fricker, M. R. Siegfried, L. Padman, F. S. Paolo, S. R. M. and Ligtenberg https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076652

Model code and software

Approximate Bayesian in- ference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximation (https://www.r-inla.org) H. Rue, S. Martino, and N. Chopin https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x

Multivariate spatio-temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica’s present-day contribution to sea-level rise (https://github.com/andrewzm/MVST) A. Zammit-Mangion, J. Rougier, N. Schön, F. Lindgren, and J. Bamber https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2323

data-driven approach for assessing ice-sheet mass balance in space and time (https://github.com/andrewzm/MVST) A. Zammit-Mangion, J. L. Bamber, N. W. Schoen, and J. C. Rougier https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A021

Short summary

We find the Antarctic Peninsula to have a mean mass loss of 19 ± 1.1 Gt yr⁻¹ over the 2003–2019 period, driven predominantly by changes in ice dynamic flow like due to changes in ocean forcing. This long-term record is crucial to ascertaining the region’s present-day contribution to sea level rise, with the understanding of driving processes enabling better future predictions. Our statistical approach enables us to estimate this previously poorly surveyed regions mass balance more accurately.