Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
The Cryosphere, 16, 1349–1367, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022
The Cryosphere, 16, 1349–1367, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022
Research article
12 Apr 2022
Research article | 12 Apr 2022

Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion

Stephen J. Chuter et al.

Data sets

riable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, 1994–2016 (https://sealevel.nasa.gov/data/dataset/ ?identifier=SLCP_AP_iceshelf_mass_balance_1) S. Adusumilli, H. A. Fricker, M. R. Siegfried, L. Padman, F. S. Paolo, S. R. M. and Ligtenberg https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076652

Model code and software

Approximate Bayesian in- ference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximation (https://www.r-inla.org) H. Rue, S. Martino, and N. Chopin https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x

Multivariate spatio-temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica’s present-day contribution to sea-level rise (https://github.com/andrewzm/MVST) A. Zammit-Mangion, J. Rougier, N. Schön, F. Lindgren, and J. Bamber https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2323

data-driven approach for assessing ice-sheet mass balance in space and time (https://github.com/andrewzm/MVST) A. Zammit-Mangion, J. L. Bamber, N. W. Schoen, and J. C. Rougier https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A021

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Short summary
We find the Antarctic Peninsula to have a mean mass loss of 19 ± 1.1 Gt yr−1 over the 2003–2019 period, driven predominantly by changes in ice dynamic flow like due to changes in ocean forcing. This long-term record is crucial to ascertaining the region’s present-day contribution to sea level rise, with the understanding of driving processes enabling better future predictions. Our statistical approach enables us to estimate this previously poorly surveyed regions mass balance more accurately.