Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 11 Apr 2022
| 11 Apr 2022
Net effect of ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions reduces simulated transient Miocene Antarctic ice-sheet variability
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Constantijn J. Berends
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Edward G. W. Gasson
Centre for Geography and Environmental Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, United Kingdom
Related authors
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3380, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently thinning, especially at major outlet glaciers. Including present-day thinning rates in models is a modeller's choice and can affect future projections. This study quantifies the impact of current imbalance on forced future projections, revealing strong regional and short-term (up to 2100) effects when these mass change rates are included.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 21, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial cycle duration changed from 41 000 to 100 000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation and simple ice–climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate for warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
James W. Marschalek, Edward Gasson, Tina van de Flierdt, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Martin J. Siegert, and Liam Holder
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1673–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1673-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1673-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheet models can help predict how Antarctica's ice sheets respond to environmental change, and such models benefit from comparison to geological data. Here, we use an ice sheet model output and other data to predict the erosion of debris and trace its transport to where it is deposited on the ocean floor. This allows the results of ice sheet modelling to be directly and quantitively compared to real-world data, helping to reduce uncertainty regarding Antarctic sea level contribution.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheet models to simulate future sea level rise require parameterizations, like for the friction at the bedrock. Studies have quantified the effect of using different parameterizations, and some have concluded that projections are sensitive to the choice of the specific parameterization. In this study, we show that you can make an ice sheet model sensitive to the basal friction parameterization, and that for equally defendable modellers choices you can also make the model insensitive to this.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 545–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a dataset of 712 Holocene water level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, events with a lower density are given a higher weight. Additionally, we found that the performance of especially convolutional neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss, not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Constantijn J. Berends
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3610, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of ice sheets solve mathematical equations describing the physics of flowing ice. While observations from satellites or other sources can be used to check if these equations describe the ice sheet correctly, one must first ensure the model solves the equations correctly. I here present a small extension to a previously derived solution on paper to one of those equations, so that modellers can verify their models.
Caroline Jacoba van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
James W. Marschalek, Edward Gasson, Tina van de Flierdt, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Martin J. Siegert, and Liam Holder
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-8, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheet models can help predict how Antarctica’s ice sheets respond to environmental change; such models benefit from comparison to geological data. Here, we use ice sheet model results, plus other data, to predict the erosion of Antarctic debris and trace its transport to where it is deposited on the ocean floor. This allows the results of ice sheet modelling to be directly and quantitively compared to real-world data, helping to reduce uncertainty regarding Antarctic sea level contribution.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Molly O. Patterson, Richard H. Levy, Denise K. Kulhanek, Tina van de Flierdt, Huw Horgan, Gavin B. Dunbar, Timothy R. Naish, Jeanine Ash, Alex Pyne, Darcy Mandeno, Paul Winberry, David M. Harwood, Fabio Florindo, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Andreas Läufer, Kyu-Cheul Yoo, Osamu Seki, Paolo Stocchi, Johann P. Klages, Jae Il Lee, Florence Colleoni, Yusuke Suganuma, Edward Gasson, Christian Ohneiser, José-Abel Flores, David Try, Rachel Kirkman, Daleen Koch, and the SWAIS 2C Science Team
Sci. Dril., 30, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
How much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 °C is currently unknown. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica’s future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed in order to better forecast the size and timing of future changes.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K.,
and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis
of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013. a
Badger, M. P. S., Lear, C. H., Pancost, R. D., Foster, G. L., Bailey, T. R.,
Leng, M. J., and Abels, H. A.: CO2 drawdown following the middle
Miocene expansion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Paleoceanography, 28,
42–53, https://doi.org/10.1002/palo.20015, 2013. a
Beckmann, A. and Goosse, H.: A parameterization of ice shelf–ocean interaction
for climate models, Ocean Model., 5, 157–170,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00019-7, 2003. a
Berends, C. J. and Stap, L. B.: IMAU-ICE v1.1.1-MIO archive, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6352125, 2021. a
Berends, C. J., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Application of HadCM3@Bristolv1.0 simulations of paleoclimate as forcing for an ice-sheet model, ANICE2.1: set-up and benchmark experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Berends, C. J., de Boer, B., Dolan, A. M., Hill, D. J., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Modelling ice sheet evolution and atmospheric CO2 during the Late Pliocene, Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019. a
Berends, C. J., de Boer, B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Reconstructing the evolution of ice sheets, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 during the past 3.6 million years, Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021. a
Bijl, P. K., Houben, A. J. P., Hartman, J. D., Pross, J., Salabarnada, A., Escutia, C., and Sangiorgi, F.: Paleoceanography and ice sheet variability offshore Wilkes Land, Antarctica – Part 2: Insights from Oligocene–Miocene dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, Clim. Past, 14, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1015-2018, 2018. a, b
Bintanja, R., Van de Wal, R. S. W., and Oerlemans, J.: Global ice volume
variations through the last glacial cycle simulated by a 3-D ice-dynamical
model, Quaternary Int., 95, 11–23,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(02)00023-X, 2002. a, b
Bradshaw, C. D., Langebroek, P. M., Lear, C. H., Lunt, D. J., Coxall, H. K.,
Sosdian, S. M., and de Boer, A. M.: Hydrological impact of Middle Miocene
Antarctic ice-free areas coupled to deep ocean temperatures, Nat.
Geosci., 14, 429–436, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00745-wT, 2021. a
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: Shallow shelf approximation as a “sliding law” in
a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys.
Res.-Earth, 114, F03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001179, 2009. a
Burls, N. J., Bradshaw, C. D., De Boer, A. M., Herold, N., Huber, M., Pound,
M., Donnadieu, Y., Farnsworth, A., Frigola, A., Gasson, E., von der Heydt, A. S., Hutchinson, D. K., Knorr, G., Lawrence, K. T., Lear, C. H., Li, X., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D. J., Marzocchi, A., Prange, M., Riihimaki, C. A., Sarr, A.-C., Siler, N., and Zhang, Z.:
Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic multi-model
ensemble (MioMIP1), Paleoceanogr. Paleoclim., 36,
e2020PA004054, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004054, 2021. a, b, c, d
Colleoni, F., De Santis, L., Montoli, E., Olivo, E., Sorlien, C. C., Bart,
P. J., Gasson, E. G. W., Bergamasco, A., Sauli, C., Wardell, N., and Prato, S.: Past
continental shelf evolution increased Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to
climatic conditions, Sci. Rep., 8, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29718-7, 2018. a, b, c
De Boer, B., Lourens, L. J., and Van De Wal, R. S. W.: Persistent 400,000-year
variability of Antarctic ice volume and the carbon cycle is revealed
throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, Nat. Commun., 5, 1–8,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms3999, 2014. a, b
de Boer, B., Dolan, A. M., Bernales, J., Gasson, E., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Sutter, J., Huybrechts, P., Lohmann, G., Rogozhina, I., Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project, The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015. a, b
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Rapid Cenozoic glaciation of Antarctica
induced by declining atmospheric CO2, Nature, 421, 245–249,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01290, 2003. a, b
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., and Kowalewski, D.: Modeling Antarctic ice sheet
and climate variations during Marine Isotope Stage 31, Global
Planet. Change, 88–89, 45–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.03.003, 2012. a
Fettweis, X., Hofer, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Amory, C., Aoki, T., Berends, C. J., Born, A., Box, J. E., Delhasse, A., Fujita, K., Gierz, P., Goelzer, H., Hanna, E., Hashimoto, A., Huybrechts, P., Kapsch, M.-L., King, M. D., Kittel, C., Lang, C., Langen, P. L., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Liston, G. E., Lohmann, G., Mernild, S. H., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Mottram, R. H., Niwano, M., Noël, B., Ryan, J. C., Smith, A., Streffing, J., Tedesco, M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M., van de Wal, R. S. W., van Kampenhout, L., Wilton, D., Wouters, B., Ziemen, F., and Zolles, T.: GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020. a, b
Fortuin, J. P. F. and Oerlemans, J.: Parameterization of the annual surface
temperature and mass balance of Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol. a
Foster, G. L., Lear, C. H., and Rae, J. W. B.: The evolution of pCO2,
ice volume and climate during the middle Miocene, Earth Planet.
Sc. Lett., 341, 243–254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.06.007, 2012. a
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.: The
hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nature, 585, 538–544,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020. a
Gasson, E., Lunt, D. J., DeConto, R., Goldner, A., Heinemann, M., Huber, M., LeGrande, A. N., Pollard, D., Sagoo, N., Siddall, M., Winguth, A., and Valdes, P. J.: Uncertainties in the modelled CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation, Clim. Past, 10, 451–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-451-2014, 2014. a
Greenop, R., Foster, G. L., Wilson, P. A., and Lear, C. H.: Middle Miocene
climate instability associated with high-amplitude CO2 variability,
Paleoceanography, 29, 845–853, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002653, 2014. a
Halberstadt, A. R. W., Chorley, H., Levy, R. H., Naish, T., DeConto, R. M.,
Gasson, E., and Kowalewski, D. E.: CO2 and tectonic controls on
Antarctic climate and ice-sheet evolution in the mid-Miocene, Earth
Planet. Sc. Lett., 564, 116908, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.116908,
2021. a, b, c, d, e, f
Hartman, J. D., Sangiorgi, F., Salabarnada, A., Peterse, F., Houben, A. J. P., Schouten, S., Brinkhuis, H., Escutia, C., and Bijl, P. K.: Paleoceanography and ice sheet variability offshore Wilkes Land, Antarctica – Part 3: Insights from Oligocene–Miocene TEX86-based sea surface temperature reconstructions, Clim. Past, 14, 1275–1297, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1275-2018, 2018. a, b
Hauptvogel, D. W. and Passchier, S.: Early–Middle Miocene (17–14 Ma)
Antarctic ice dynamics reconstructed from the heavy mineral provenance in
the AND-2A drill core, Ross Sea, Antarctica, Global Planet.
Change, 82, 38–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.11.003, 2012. a, b
Herold, N., Seton, M., Müller, R. D., You, Y., and Huber, M.: Middle
Miocene tectonic boundary conditions for use in climate models,
Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 9, Q10009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GC002046, 2008. a
Hochmuth, K., Gohl, K., Leitchenkov, G., Sauermilch, I., Whittaker, J. M.,
Uenzelmann-Neben, G., Davy, B., and De Santis, L.: The evolving
paleobathymetry of the circum-Antarctic Southern Ocean since 34 Ma:
A key to understanding past cryosphere-ocean developments, Geochem.
Geophy. Geosy., 21, e2020GC009122, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009122,
2020a. a, b, c, d, e
Hochmuth, K., Paxman, G. J. G., Gohl, K., Jamieson, S. S. R.,
Leitchenkov, G. L., Bentley, M. J., Ferraccioli, F., Sauermilch, I.,
Whittaker, J., Uenzelmann-Neben, G., Davy, B., and DeSantis, L.:
Combined palaeotopography and palaeobathymetry of the Antarctic continent
and the Southern Ocean since 34 Ma, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.923109, 2020b. a
Holbourn, A., Kuhnt, W., Clemens, S., Prell, W., and Andersen, N.: Middle to
late Miocene stepwise climate cooling: Evidence from a high-resolution
deep water isotope curve spanning 8 million years, Paleoceanography, 28,
688–699, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013PA002538, 2013. a
Huybrechts, P.: Sea-level changes at the LGM from ice-dynamic reconstructions
of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the glacial cycles,
Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 203–231,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00082-8, 2002. a
Huybrechts, P. and de Wolde, J.: The dynamic response of the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming, J.
Climate, 12, 2169–2188,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2169:TDROTG>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Janssens, I. and Huybrechts, P.: The treatment of meltwater retention in
mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet, Ann.
Glaciol., 31, 133–140, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756400781819941, 2000. a
Kürschner, W. M., Kvaček, Z., and Dilcher, D. L.: The impact of
Miocene atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuations on climate and the
evolution of terrestrial ecosystems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 449–453, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0708588105, 2008. a
Ladant, J.-B., Donnadieu, Y., Lefebvre, V., and Dumas, C.: The respective role
of atmospheric carbon dioxide and orbital parameters on ice sheet evolution
at the Eocene-Oligocene transition, Paleoceanography, 29, 810–823,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013PA002593, 2014. a
Langebroek, P. M., Paul, A., and Schulz, M.: Antarctic ice-sheet response to atmospheric CO2 and insolation in the Middle Miocene, Clim. Past, 5, 633–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-633-2009, 2009. a
Langebroek, P. M., Paul, A., and Schulz, M.: Simulating the sea level imprint
on marine oxygen isotope records during the middle Miocene using an ice
sheet–climate model, Paleoceanography, 25, PA4203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008PA001704, 2010. a
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., and
Levrard, B.: A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of
the Earth, Astron. Astrophys., 428, 261–285,
https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041335, 2004. a, b
Lazeroms, W. M. J., Jenkins, A., Rienstra, S. W., and Van de Wal, R. S. W.: An
analytical derivation of ice-shelf basal melt based on the dynamics of
meltwater plumes, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 49, 917–939,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-18-0131.1, 2019. a
Le Meur, E. and Huybrechts, P.: A comparison of different ways of dealing with
isostasy: examples from modelling the Antarctic ice sheet during the last
glacial cycle, Ann. Glaciol., 23, 309–317,
https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500013586, 1996. a
Levy, R., Harwood, D., Florindo, F., Sangiorgi, F., Tripati, R., Von Eynatten,
H., Gasson, E., Kuhn, G., Tripati, A., DeConto, R., Fielding, C., Field, B., Golledge, N., McKay, R., Naish, T., Olney, M., Pollard, D., Schouten, S., Talarico, F., Warny, S., Willmott, V., Acton, G., Panter, K., Paulsen, T., Taviani, M., and SMS Science Team: Antarctic ice
sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to
mid-Miocene, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113,
3453–3458, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1516030113, 2016. a, b, c
Levy, R. H., Meyers, S. R., Naish, T. R., Golledge, N. R., McKay, R. M.,
Crampton, J. S., DeConto, R. M., De Santis, L., Florindo, F., Gasson, E.
G. W., Harwood, D. M., Luyendyk, B. P., Powell, R. D., Clowes, C., and Kulhanek, D. K.: Antarctic ice-sheet sensitivity to obliquity forcing enhanced
through ocean connections, Nat. Geosci., 12, 132–137,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0284-4, 2019. a, b
Liebrand, D., Lourens, L. J., Hodell, D. A., de Boer, B., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Pälike, H.: Antarctic ice sheet and oceanographic response to eccentricity forcing during the early Miocene, Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011. a
Liebrand, D., de Bakker, A. T. M., Beddow, H. M., Wilson, P. A., Bohaty, S. M.,
Ruessink, G., Pälike, H., Batenburg, S. J., Hilgen, F. J., Hodell, D. A.,
Huck, C. E., Kroon, D., Raffi, I., Saes, M. J. M., van Dijk, A. E., and Lourens, L. J.: Evolution of the early Antarctic ice ages, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 3867–3872, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1615440114,
2017. a
Lingle, C. S. and Clark, J. A.: A numerical model of interactions between a
marine ice sheet and the solid earth: Application to a West Antarctic
ice stream, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 90, 1100–1114,
https://doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC01p01100, 1985. a
Lorius, C., Jouzel, J., Ritz, C., Merlivat, L., Barkov, N. I., Korotkevich,
Y. S., and Kotlyakov, V. M.: A 150,000-year climatic record from Antarctic
ice, Nature, 316, 591–596, https://doi.org/10.1038/316591a0, 1985. a
Marschalek, J. W., Zurli, L., Talarico, F., van de Flierdt, T., Vermeesch, P.,
Carter, A., Beny, F., Bout-Roumazeilles, V., Sangiorgi, F., Hemming, S. R.,
Pérez, L. F., Colleoni, F., Prebble, J. G., van Peer, T. E., Perotti, M., Shevenell, A. E., Browne, I., Kulhanek, D. K., Levy, R., Harwood, D., Sullivan, N. B., Meyers, S. R., Griffith, E. M., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Gasson, E., Siegert, M. J., Keisling, B., Licht, K. J., Kuhn, G., Dodd, J. P., Boshuis, C., De Santis, L., McKay, R. M., and IODP Expedition 374: A large West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains early Neogene
sea-level amplitude, Nature, 600, 450–455, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04148-0,
2021. a
Martin, M. A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 5, 727–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-727-2011, 2011. a
Modestou, S. E., Leutert, T. J., Fernandez, A., Lear, C. H., and Meckler,
A. N.: Warm middle Miocene Indian Ocean bottom water temperatures:
Comparison of clumped isotope and Mg/Ca-based estimates, Paleoceanogr.
Paleoclim., 35, e2020PA003927, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003927, 2020. a, b
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G.,
Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum, J. S., Gudmundsson, H., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A., Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., van den Broeke, M. R., van Ommen, T. D., van Wessem, M., and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial
troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the
Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020. a, b
Naish, T., Powell, R., Levy, R., Wilson, G., Scherer, R., Talarico, F.,
Krissek, L., Niessen, F., Pompilio, M., Wilson, T., Carter, L., DeConto, R., Huybers, P., McKay, R., Pollard, D., Ross, J., Winter, D., Barrett, P., Browne, G., Cody, R., Cowan, E., Crampton, J., Dunbar, G., Dunbar, N., Florindo, F., Gebhardt, C., Graham, I., Hannah, M., Hansaraj, D., Harwood, D., Helling, D., Henrys, S., Hinnov, L., Kuhn, G., Kyle, P., Läufer, A., Maffioli, P., Magens, D., Mandernack, K., McIntosh, W., Millan, C., Morin, R., Ohneiser, C., Paulsen, T., Persico, D., Raine, I., Reed, J., Riesselman, C., Sagnotti, L., Schmitt, D., Sjunneskog, C., Strong, P., Taviani, M., Vogel, S., Wilch, T., and Williams, T.: Obliquity-paced
Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations, Nature, 458, 322–328,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07867, 2009. a
Oerlemans, J.: Antarctic ice volume and deep-sea temperature during the last 50
Myr: a model study, Ann. Glaciol., 39, 13–19,
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756404781814708, 2004. a
Ohmura, A.: Precipitation, accumulation and mass balance of the Greenland ice
sheet, Zeitschrift fur Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie, 35, 1–20, 1999. a
Paxman, G. J. G., Jamieson, S. S. R., Hochmuth, K., Gohl, K., Bentley, M. J.,
Leitchenkov, G., and Ferraccioli, F.: Reconstructions of Antarctic
topography since the Eocene–Oligocene boundary, Palaeogeogr.
Palaeoclim., 535, 109346,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2019.109346, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f
Paxman, G. J. G., Gasson, E. G. W., Jamieson, S. S. R., Bentley, M. J., and
Ferraccioli, F.: Long-Term Increase in Antarctic Ice Sheet Vulnerability
Driven by Bed Topography Evolution, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
e2020GL090003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090003, 2020. a, b, c, d
Pekar, S. F. and DeConto, R. M.: High-resolution ice-volume estimates for the
early Miocene: Evidence for a dynamic ice sheet in Antarctica,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclim., 231, 101–109,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.07.027, 2006. a
Pelle, T., Morlighem, M., and Bondzio, J. H.: Brief communication: PICOP, a new ocean melt parameterization under ice shelves combining PICO and a plume model, The Cryosphere, 13, 1043–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, 2019. a
Pérez, L. F., De Santis, L., McKay, R. M., Larter, R. D., Ash, J., Bart,
P. J., Böhm, G., Brancatelli, G., Browne, I., Colleoni, F., Dodd, J. P., Geletti, R., Harwood, D. M., Kuhn, G., Sverre Laberg, J., Leckie, R. M., Levy, R. H., Marschalek, J., Mateo, Z., Naish, T. R., Sangiorgi, F., Shevenell, A. E., Sorlien, C. C., van de Flierdt, T., and International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 374 Scientists: Early
and middle Miocene ice sheet dynamics in the Ross Sea: Results from
integrated core-log-seismic interpretation, GSA Bulletin, 134, 348–370,
https://doi.org/10.1130/B35814.1, 2021. a, b
Pollard, D.: A retrospective look at coupled ice sheet–climate modeling,
Climatic Change, 100, 173–194, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9830-9, 2010. a
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Antarctic ice and sediment flux in the
Oligocene simulated by a climate–ice sheet–sediment model,
Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclim., 198, 53–67,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-0182(03)00394-8, 2003. a
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Hysteresis in Cenozoic Antarctic ice-sheet
variations, Global Planet. Change, 45, 9–21,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.09.011, 2005. a
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth
and collapse through the past five million years, Nature, 458, 329–332,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07809, 2009. a
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Continuous simulations over the last 40 million
years with a coupled Antarctic ice sheet-sediment model, Palaeogeogr.
Palaeoclim., 537, 109374,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2019.109374, 2020. a
Pollard, D., Kump, L. R., and Zachos, J. C.: Interactions between carbon
dioxide, climate, weathering, and the Antarctic ice sheet in the earliest
Oligocene, Global Planet. Change, 111, 258–267,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.012, 2013. a
Reerink, T. J., Kliphuis, M. A., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Mapping technique of climate fields between GCM's and ice models, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 13–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, 2010. a
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X., and Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO, The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018a. a
Reese, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Levermann, A., and Winkelmann, R.: The far reach
of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 53–57,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x, 2018b. a
Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V., and Dumas, C.: Modeling the evolution of Antarctic
ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in
the Vostok region, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106,
31943–31964, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD900232, 2001. a
Rohling, E. J., Yu, J., Heslop, D., Foster, G. L., Opdyke, B., and Roberts,
A. P.: Sea level and deep-sea temperature reconstructions suggest
quasi-stable states and critical transitions over the past 40 million years,
Sci. Adv., 7, eabf5326, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf5326, 2021. a
Sangiorgi, F., Bijl, P. K., Passchier, S., Salzmann, U., Schouten, S., McKay,
R., Cody, R. D., Pross, J., Van De Flierdt, T., Bohaty, S. M., Levy, R., Williams, T., Escutia, C., and Brinkhuis, H.:
Southern Ocean warming and Wilkes Land ice sheet retreat during the
mid-Miocene, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02609-7, 2018. a, b
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and
hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F03S28,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007. a
Shapiro, N. M. and Ritzwoller, M. H.: Inferring surface heat flux distributions
guided by a global seismic model: particular application to Antarctica,
Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 223, 213–224,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011, 2004. a
Shevenell, A. E., Kennett, J. P., and Lea, D. W.: Middle Miocene ice sheet
dynamics, deep-sea temperatures, and carbon cycling: A Southern Ocean
perspective, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 9, Q02006,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GC001736, 2008. a
Stap, L. B., Van De Wal, R. S. W., De Boer, B., Bintanja, R., and Lourens,
L. J.: The MMCO-EOT conundrum: Same benthic δ18O, different
CO2, Paleoceanography, 31, 1270–1282, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016PA002958,
2016. a, b
Stap, L. B., van de Wal, R. S. W., de Boer, B., Bintanja, R., and Lourens, L. J.: The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet–climate model, Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017. a, b
Stap, L. B., Knorr, G., and Lohmann, G.: Anti-phased Miocene ice volume and
CO2 Changes by transient Antarctic ice sheet variability,
Paleoceanogr. Paleoclim., 35, e2020PA003971,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003971, 2020. a, b, c
Stap, L. B., Berends, C. J., Scherrenberg, M. D. W., van de Wal, R. S. W., and
Gasson, E. G. W.: Idealised steady-state and transient simulations of Miocene
Antarctic ice-sheet variability using 3D thermodynamical ice-sheet model
IMAU-ICE, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.939114, 2021. a
Stärz, M., Jokat, W., Knorr, G., and Lohmann, G.: Threshold in North
Atlantic-Arctic Ocean circulation controlled by the subsidence of the
Greenland-Scotland Ridge, Nat. Commun., 8, 1–13,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15681, 2017. a
Steinthorsdottir, M., Coxall, H., De Boer, A. M., Huber, M., Barbolini, N.,
Bradshaw, C. D., Burls, N. J., Feakins, S. J., Gasson, E., Henderiks, J.,
Holbourn, A. E., Kiel, S., Kohn, M. J., Knorr, G., Kürschner, W. M., Lear, C. H., Liebrand, D., Lunt, D. J., Mörs, T., Pearson, P. N., Pound, M. J., Stoll, H., and Strömberg, C. A. E.: The Miocene: The future of the past, Paleoceanogr.
Paleoclima., 36, e2020PA004037, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004037,
2021a. a
Steinthorsdottir, M., Jardine, P. E., and Rember, W. C.: Near-Future
pCO2 During the Hot Miocene Climatic Optimum, Paleoceanogr.
Paleoclima., 36, e2020PA003900, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA003900,
2021b. a
Stocchi, P., Escutia, C., Houben, A. J. P., Vermeersen, B. L. A., Bijl, P. K.,
Brinkhuis, H., DeConto, R. M., Galeotti, S., Passchier, S., Pollard, D.,
Brinkhuis, H., Escutia, C., Klaus, A., Fehr, A., Williams, T., Bendle, J. A. P., Bijl, P. K., Bohaty, S. M., Carr, S. A., Dunbar, R. B., Flores, J. A., Gonzàlez, J. J., Hayden, T. G., Iwai, M., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Katsuki, K., Kong, G. S., McKay, R. M., Nakai, M., Olney, M. P., Passchier, S., Pekar, S. F., Pross, J., Riesselman, C., Röhl, U., Sakai, T., Shrivastava, P. K., Stickley, C. E., Sugisaki, S., Tauxe, L., Tuo, S., van de Flierdt, T., Welsh, K., and Yamane, M.: Relative sea-level rise around East Antarctica during Oligocene
glaciation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 380–384, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1783, 2013.
a
Sun, S., Pattyn, F., Simon, E. G., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Calov, R.,
Dumas, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kazmierczak, E., Kleiner, T., Leguy, F. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pollard, D., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Seroussi, H., Schlemm, T., Sutter, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., and Zhang, T.:
Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse
(ABUMIP), J. Glaciol., 66, 891–904, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67,
2020. a, b
Super, J. R., Thomas, E., Pagani, M., Huber, M., O’Brien, C., and Hull,
P. M.: North Atlantic temperature and pCO2 coupling in the
early-middle Miocene, Geology, 46, 519–522, https://doi.org/10.1130/G40228.1, 2018. a
Tan, N., Ladant, J.-B., Ramstein, G., Dumas, C., Bachem, P., and Jansen, E.:
Dynamic Greenland ice sheet driven by pCO2 variations across the
Pliocene Pleistocene transition, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07206-w, 2018. a
Thompson, S. L. and Pollard, D.: Greenland and Antarctic mass balances for
present and doubled atmospheric CO2 from the GENESIS version-2
global climate model, J. Climate, 10, 871–900,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0871:GAAMBF>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V.
D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A.,
Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Van De Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy.
Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005. a, b
Wilson, D. S., Jamieson, S. S. R., Barrett, P. J., Leitchenkov, G., Gohl, K.,
and Larter, R. D.: Antarctic topography at the Eocene–Oligocene
boundary, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclim., 335, 24–34,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.05.028, 2012. a, b, c
Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 1: Model description, The Cryosphere, 5, 715–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-715-2011, 2011. a
Zachos, J. C., Dickens, G. R., and Zeebe, R. E.: An early Cenozoic
perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics, Nature, 451,
279–283, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06588, 2008. a
Short summary
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm...
