Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3949-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3949-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Aug 2021
Research article |
| 20 Aug 2021
| 20 Aug 2021
Evaluating a prediction system for snow management
Pirmin Philipp Ebner
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Institute for Hydrology and Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
Valentina Premier
Institute for Earth Observation, EURAC, Bolzano, Italy
Carlo Marin
Institute for Earth Observation, EURAC, Bolzano, Italy
Florian Hanzer
Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Austria
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Austria
Carlo Maria Carmagnola
University of Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, 38000 Grenoble, France
Dianeige, Meylan, France
Hugues François
LESSEM, Université Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, Grenoble, France
Daniel Günther
Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Austria
Fabiano Monti
ALPsolut S. r. l., Livigno, Italy
Olivier Hargoaa
SnowSat, Grenoble, France
Ulrich Strasser
Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Austria
Samuel Morin
University of Grenoble Alpes, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, 38000 Grenoble, France
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6382, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Snow and rainfall measurements in mountain regions often underestimate the true amounts. We developed a method to correct Austrian precipitation data using weather stations and terrain features. The corrected data greatly improves runoff, snow and glacier modeling. This work shows that considering measurement errors is important for accurately assessing water resources, which is increasingly relevant as climate change affects alpine water systems supplying hydropower and downstream communities.
Mattia Callegari, Carlo Marin, Claudia Notarnicola, and Thomas Schellenberger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5779, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We introduce a new satellite-based approach to estimate annual glacier mass balance. Using data from 2000 to 2024, we produced yearly estimates for nearly three thousand glaciers in the Alps, Scandinavia, and Svalbard. Comparison with extensive field measurements shows strong agreement, demonstrating that this method can reliably track annual glacier changes across large regions.
Elisa Kamir, Samuel Morin, Guillaume Evin, Penelope Gehring, Bodo Wichura, and Ali Nadir Arslan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-17-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-17-2026, 2026
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This article describes a dataset of annual snow depth maximum across Europe, from 1961 to 2015, based on a regional reanalysis. It evaluates the performance of the dataset, against in-situ snow depth observations. This dataset is found to perform well in most environments, with challenges at high elevation and some coastal areas. Assessing the quality of this dataset is necessary in order to use it as a baseline to infer future changes of extreme snow loads under climate change.
Brandon Jacobus Adrianus van Schaik, Alice Juliette Baruzier, Clément Loyer, Hendrik Huwald, and Michael Lehning
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-271, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-271, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
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We created a new way to estimate how much energy a wind turbine can produce by using the full change of wind with height instead of a single measurement. Testing it on turbines in the Swiss Alps showed that it predicts energy production more accurately and smoothly than current industry methods. It performs as well as advanced models but is much faster, helping guide future wind projects in complex landscapes.
Francesca Carletti, Carlo Marin, Chiara Ghielmini, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 19, 5579–5612, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5579-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5579-2025, 2025
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This work presents the first high-resolution dataset of wet-snow properties for satellite applications. With it, we validate links between Sentinel-1 backscatter and snowmelt stages and investigate scattering mechanisms through a radiative transfer model. We disclose the influence of liquid water content and surface roughness at different melting stages and address future challenges, such as capturing large-scale scattering mechanisms and enhancing radiative transfer modules for wet snow.
Hongxiang Yu, Li Guang, Benjamin Walter, Jianping Huang, Ning Huang, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 19, 5389–5402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5389-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5389-2025, 2025
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Cornices are overhanging snow accumulations that form on mountain crests. Using wind-tunnel experiments and high-speed photography, the study tracks particle trajectories around cornices and finds distinct differences between edge and surface deposition. A static adhesion model for edge deposition was developed and validated to predict how particle size and shape affect adhesion. The work clarifies the microdynamics of early cornice growth and provides a foundation for avalanche modeling.
Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, Basile De Fleurian, Mathieu Fructus, Rafife Nheili, Léo Viallon-Galinier, Matthieu Baron, Aaron Boone, Axel Bouchet, Julien Brondex, Carlo Carmagnola, Bertrand Cluzet, Kévin Fourteau, Ange Haddjeri, Pascal Hagenmuller, Giulia Mazzotti, Marie Minvielle, Samuel Morin, Louis Quéno, Léon Roussel, Pierre Spandre, François Tuzet, and Vincent Vionnet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4540, 2025
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This article is a comprehensive description of the 3.0 stable release of the Crocus snowpack model. It describes various new implementations since the last reference article in 2012 and a review of the available scientific evaluations and applications of the model. This provides guidance for the future of numerical snow modelling.
Tiziana Lazzarina Zendrini, Luca Carturan, Michael Lehning, Mathias Bavay, Federico Cazorzi, Paolo Gabrielli, Nander Wever, and Giancarlo Dalla Fontana
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5186, 2025
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By combining in situ mass balance data with a physics‐based snow model at Mt. Ortles, in the Italian Alps, we investigate snow accumulation, erosion and melt processes, and their sensitivity to air temperature. We found that wind erosion is currently the major ablation process at this high-elevation site, whereas melt plays a minor role. Quickly rising air temperature is affecting this partitioning and suggests a future shift from an erosion-dominated to a melt-dominated mass balance regime.
Erwin Rottler, Brage Storebakken, Michael Warscher, Florian Hanzer, Elena Bertazza, and Ulrich Strasser
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3707, 2025
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In this study, we simulate the snow cover in a complex mountain area under historical conditions and for a time period characterized by a 1 °C warming using a large number of different snow models. Our goal is the assessment of differences in the modelling results induced by different snow model configurations. Our results suggests that differences showing up depending on the selected snowmelt method, land cover map and spatial resolution can be in the same range as the impact of a 1 °C warming.
Elizaveta Sharaborova, Michael Lehning, Nander Wever, Marcia Phillips, and Hendrik Huwald
The Cryosphere, 19, 4277–4301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4277-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4277-2025, 2025
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Global warming provokes permafrost to thaw, damaging landscapes and infrastructure. This study explores methods to slow this thawing at an alpine site. We investigate different methods based on passive and active cooling. The best approach mixes both methods and manages heat flow, potentially allowing excess energy to be used locally.
Mahdi Jafari and Michael Lehning
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3035, 2025
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We studied how air moves within snow in Arctic regions and how this affects the snow's structure. Using a new method that links two computer models, we found that cold weather can trigger air movement inside the snow, creating vertical channels and changing the snow's density and temperature. These changes are not captured by traditional models, so our work helps improve how snow and climate processes are simulated in cold environments.
Zacharie Barrou Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Jordi Inglada, Andreas Dietz, Jonas Köhler, Matthieu Lafaysse, Diego Monteiro, Carlo Carmagnola, Arthur Bayle, Jean-Pierre Dedieu, Olivier Hagolle, and Philippe Choler
The Cryosphere, 19, 2407–2429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2407-2025, 2025
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We generated annual maps of snow melt-out days at 20 m resolution over a period of 38 years from 10 different satellites. This study fills a knowledge gap regarding the evolution of mountain snow in Europe by covering a much longer period and characterizing trends at much higher resolutions than previous studies. We found a trend for earlier melt-out with average reductions of 5.51 d per decade over the French Alps and 4.04 d per decade over the Pyrenees for the period 1986–2023.
Alberto Mariani, Jacopo Borsotti, Franz Livio, Giacomo Villa, Martin Metzger, and Fabiano Monti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5972C, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5972C, 2025
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We developed a new model to estimate snow depth using radar satellite data. By correcting for how the viewing angle affects signal reflection, we reduced errors by nearly 40 %. Tested in the Alps and Norway, the method improves fine-scale snow monitoring, supporting avalanche forecasting and water management.
Valentina Premier, Francesca Moschini, Jesús Casado-Rodríguez, Davide Bavera, Carlo Marin, and Alberto Pistocchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2157, 2025
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Earth observation-derived snow cover data is valuable for evaluating and improving snow modules in hydrological models. We propose a novel calibration of LISFLOOD’s snowmelt coefficient by minimizing errors between observed and modeled snow cover fraction, enhancing pixel-scale accuracy. While basin-scale performance shows minor discrepancies, a more realistic snow module leads to shifts in the timing and magnitude of snowmelt and total runoff, thus affecting the water balance.
Matthew Switanek, Gernot Resch, Andreas Gobiet, Daniel Günther, Christoph Marty, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 18, 6005–6026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-6005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-6005-2024, 2024
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Snow depth plays an important role in water resources, mountain tourism, and hazard management across the European Alps. Our study uses station-based historical observations to quantify how changes in temperature and precipitation affect average seasonal snow depth. We find that the relationship between these variables has been surprisingly robust over the last 120 years. This allows us to more accurately estimate how future climate will affect seasonal snow depth in different elevation zones.
Riccardo Barella, Mathias Bavay, Francesca Carletti, Nicola Ciapponi, Valentina Premier, and Carlo Marin
The Cryosphere, 18, 5323–5345, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5323-2024, 2024
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This research revisits a classic scientific technique, melting calorimetry, to measure snow liquid water content. This study shows with a novel uncertainty propagation framework that melting calorimetry, traditionally less trusted than freezing calorimetry, can produce accurate results. The study defines optimal experiment parameters and a robust field protocol. Melting calorimetry has the potential to become a valuable tool for validating other liquid water content measuring techniques.
Diego Monteiro, Cécile Caillaud, Matthieu Lafaysse, Adrien Napoly, Mathieu Fructus, Antoinette Alias, and Samuel Morin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7645–7677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, 2024
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Modeling snow cover in climate and weather forecasting models is a challenge even for high-resolution models. Recent simulations with CNRM-AROME have shown difficulties when representing snow in the European Alps. Using remote sensing data and in situ observations, we evaluate modifications of the land surface configuration in order to improve it. We propose a new surface configuration, enabling a more realistic simulation of snow cover, relevant for climate and weather forecasting applications.
Sonja Wahl, Benjamin Walter, Franziska Aemisegger, Luca Bianchi, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 18, 4493–4515, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4493-2024, 2024
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Wind-driven airborne transport of snow is a frequent phenomenon in snow-covered regions and a process difficult to study in the field as it is unfolding over large distances. Thus, we use a ring wind tunnel with infinite fetch positioned in a cold laboratory to study the evolution of the shape and size of airborne snow. With the help of stable water isotope analyses, we identify the hitherto unobserved process of airborne snow metamorphism that leads to snow particle rounding and growth.
Dylan Reynolds, Louis Quéno, Michael Lehning, Mahdi Jafari, Justine Berg, Tobias Jonas, Michael Haugeneder, and Rebecca Mott
The Cryosphere, 18, 4315–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4315-2024, 2024
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Information about atmospheric variables is needed to produce simulations of mountain snowpacks. We present a model that can represent processes that shape mountain snowpack, focusing on the accumulation of snow. Simulations show that this model can simulate the complex path that a snowflake takes towards the ground and that this leads to differences in the distribution of snow by the end of winter. Overall, this model shows promise with regard to improving forecasts of snow in mountains.
Ulrich Strasser, Michael Warscher, Erwin Rottler, and Florian Hanzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6775–6797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6775-2024, 2024
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openAMUNDSEN is a fully distributed open-source snow-hydrological model for mountain catchments. It includes process representations of an empirical, semi-empirical, and physical nature. It uses temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, and wind speed as forcing data and is computationally efficient, of a modular nature, and easily extendible. The Python code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/openamundsen/openamundsen), including documentation (https://doc.openamundsen.org).
Michael Warscher, Thomas Marke, Erwin Rottler, and Ulrich Strasser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3579–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3579-2024, 2024
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Continuous observations of snow and climate at high altitudes are still sparse. We present a unique collection of weather and snow cover data from three automatic weather stations at remote locations in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) that include continuous recordings of snow cover properties. The data are available over multiple winter seasons and enable new insights for snow hydrological research. The data are also used in operational applications, i.e., for avalanche warning and flood forecasting.
Benjamin Bouchard, Daniel F. Nadeau, Florent Domine, Nander Wever, Adrien Michel, Michael Lehning, and Pierre-Erik Isabelle
The Cryosphere, 18, 2783–2807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2783-2024, 2024
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Observations over several winters at two boreal sites in eastern Canada show that rain-on-snow (ROS) events lead to the formation of melt–freeze layers and that preferential flow is an important water transport mechanism in the sub-canopy snowpack. Simulations with SNOWPACK generally show good agreement with observations, except for the reproduction of melt–freeze layers. This was improved by simulating intercepted snow microstructure evolution, which also modulates ROS-induced runoff.
Daniela Brito Melo, Armin Sigmund, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 18, 1287–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1287-2024, 2024
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Snow saltation – the transport of snow close to the surface – occurs when the wind blows over a snow-covered surface with sufficient strength. This phenomenon is represented in some climate models; however, with limited accuracy. By performing numerical simulations and a detailed analysis of previous works, we show that snow saltation is characterized by two regimes. This is not represented in climate models in a consistent way, which hinders the quantification of snow transport and sublimation.
Riccardo Barella, Mathias Bavay, Francesca Carletti, Nicola Ciapponi, Valentina Premier, and Carlo Marin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2892, 2024
Preprint archived
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Unlocking the potential of melting calorimetry, traditionally confined to school labs, this paper demonstrates its application in the field for accurate measurement of liquid water content in snow. Dispelling misconceptions about measurement uncertainty, it provide a robust protocol and quantifies associated uncertainties. The findings endorse the broader adoption of melting calorimetry for quantification of snow liquid water content in operational context.
Samuel Morin, Hugues François, Marion Réveillet, Eric Sauquet, Louise Crochemore, Flora Branger, Étienne Leblois, and Marie Dumont
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4257–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4257-2023, 2023
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Ski resorts are a key socio-economic asset of several mountain areas. Grooming and snowmaking are routinely used to manage the snow cover on ski pistes, but despite vivid debate, little is known about their impact on water resources downstream. This study quantifies, for the pilot ski resort La Plagne in the French Alps, the impact of grooming and snowmaking on downstream river flow. Hydrological impacts are mostly apparent at the seasonal scale and rather neutral on the annual scale.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
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We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Dylan Reynolds, Ethan Gutmann, Bert Kruyt, Michael Haugeneder, Tobias Jonas, Franziska Gerber, Michael Lehning, and Rebecca Mott
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5049–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5049-2023, 2023
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The challenge of running geophysical models is often compounded by the question of where to obtain appropriate data to give as input to a model. Here we present the HICAR model, a simplified atmospheric model capable of running at spatial resolutions of hectometers for long time series or over large domains. This makes physically consistent atmospheric data available at the spatial and temporal scales needed for some terrestrial modeling applications, for example seasonal snow forecasting.
Diego Monteiro and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 3617–3660, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023, 2023
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Beyond directly using in situ observations, often sparsely available in mountain regions, climate model simulations and so-called reanalyses are increasingly used for climate change impact studies. Here we evaluate such datasets in the European Alps from 1950 to 2020, with a focus on snow cover information and its main drivers: air temperature and precipitation. In terms of variability and trends, we identify several limitations and provide recommendations for future use of these datasets.
Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Marion Réveillet, Didier Voisin, François Tuzet, Laurent Arnaud, Mylène Bonnefoy, Montse Bacardit Peñarroya, Carlo Carmagnola, Alexandre Deguine, Aurélie Diacre, Lukas Dürr, Olivier Evrard, Firmin Fontaine, Amaury Frankl, Mathieu Fructus, Laure Gandois, Isabelle Gouttevin, Abdelfateh Gherab, Pascal Hagenmuller, Sophia Hansson, Hervé Herbin, Béatrice Josse, Bruno Jourdain, Irene Lefevre, Gaël Le Roux, Quentin Libois, Lucie Liger, Samuel Morin, Denis Petitprez, Alvaro Robledano, Martin Schneebeli, Pascal Salze, Delphine Six, Emmanuel Thibert, Jürg Trachsel, Matthieu Vernay, Léo Viallon-Galinier, and Céline Voiron
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3075–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust outbreaks have profound effects on ecosystems, climate, health, and the cryosphere, but the spatial deposition pattern of Saharan dust is poorly known. Following the extreme dust deposition event of February 2021 across Europe, a citizen science campaign was launched to sample dust on snow over the Pyrenees and the European Alps. This campaign triggered wide interest and over 100 samples. The samples revealed the high variability of the dust properties within a single event.
Valentina Premier, Carlo Marin, Giacomo Bertoldi, Riccardo Barella, Claudia Notarnicola, and Lorenzo Bruzzone
The Cryosphere, 17, 2387–2407, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2387-2023, 2023
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The large amount of information regularly acquired by satellites can provide important information about SWE. We explore the use of multi-source satellite data, in situ observations, and a degree-day model to reconstruct daily SWE at 25 m. The results show spatial patterns that are consistent with the topographical features as well as with a reference product. Being able to also reproduce interannual variability, the method has great potential for hydrological and ecological applications.
Hongxiang Yu, Guang Li, Benjamin Walter, Michael Lehning, Jie Zhang, and Ning Huang
The Cryosphere, 17, 639–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-639-2023, 2023
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Snow cornices lead to the potential risk of causing snow avalanche hazards, which are still unknown so far. We carried out a wind tunnel experiment in a cold lab to investigate the environmental conditions for snow cornice accretion recorded by a camera. The length growth rate of the cornices reaches a maximum for wind speeds approximately 40 % higher than the threshold wind speed. Experimental results improve our understanding of the cornice formation process.
Varun Sharma, Franziska Gerber, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 719–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023, 2023
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Most current generation climate and weather models have a relatively simplistic description of snow and snow–atmosphere interaction. One reason for this is the belief that including an advanced snow model would make the simulations too computationally demanding. In this study, we bring together two state-of-the-art models for atmosphere (WRF) and snow cover (SNOWPACK) and highlight both the feasibility and necessity of such coupled models to explore underexplored phenomena in the cryosphere.
Océane Hames, Mahdi Jafari, David Nicholas Wagner, Ian Raphael, David Clemens-Sewall, Chris Polashenski, Matthew D. Shupe, Martin Schneebeli, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6429–6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6429-2022, 2022
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This paper presents an Eulerian–Lagrangian snow transport model implemented in the fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM, which we call snowBedFoam 1.0. We apply this model to reproduce snow deposition on a piece of ridged Arctic sea ice, which was produced during the MOSAiC expedition through scan measurements. The model appears to successfully reproduce the enhanced snow accumulation and deposition patterns, although some quantitative uncertainties were shown.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
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High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
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Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Michael Matiu and Florian Hanzer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3037–3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3037-2022, 2022
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Regional climate models not only provide projections on temperature and precipitation, but also on snow. Here, we employed statistical post-processing using satellite observations to reduce bias and uncertainty from model projections of future snow-covered area and duration under different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios for the European Alps. Snow cover area/duration decreased overall in the future, three times more strongly with 4–5° global warming as compared to 1.5–2°.
David N. Wagner, Matthew D. Shupe, Christopher Cox, Ola G. Persson, Taneil Uttal, Markus M. Frey, Amélie Kirchgaessner, Martin Schneebeli, Matthias Jaggi, Amy R. Macfarlane, Polona Itkin, Stefanie Arndt, Stefan Hendricks, Daniela Krampe, Marcel Nicolaus, Robert Ricker, Julia Regnery, Nikolai Kolabutin, Egor Shimanshuck, Marc Oggier, Ian Raphael, Julienne Stroeve, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 16, 2373–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2373-2022, 2022
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Based on measurements of the snow cover over sea ice and atmospheric measurements, we estimate snowfall and snow accumulation for the MOSAiC ice floe, between November 2019 and May 2020. For this period, we estimate 98–114 mm of precipitation. We suggest that about 34 mm of snow water equivalent accumulated until the end of April 2020 and that at least about 50 % of the precipitated snow was eroded or sublimated. Further, we suggest explanations for potential snowfall overestimation.
Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Diego Monteiro, Pascal Hagenmuller, Rafife Nheili, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Deborah Verfaillie, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1707–1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1707-2022, 2022
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This paper introduces the latest version of the freely available S2M dataset which provides estimates of both meteorological and snow cover variables, as well as various avalanche hazard diagnostics at different elevations, slopes and aspects for the three main French high-elevation mountainous regions. A complete description of the system and the dataset is provided, as well as an overview of the possible uses of this dataset and an objective assessment of its limitations.
Lucas Berard-Chenu, Hugues François, Emmanuelle George, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 16, 863–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-863-2022, 2022
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This study investigates the past snow reliability (1961–2019) of 16 ski resorts in the French Alps using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling. We used snowmaking investment figures to infer the evolution of snowmaking coverage at the individual ski resort level. Snowmaking improved snow reliability for the core of the winter season for the highest-elevation ski resorts. However it did not counterbalance the decreasing trend in snow cover reliability for lower-elevation ski resorts and in spring.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1753–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1753-2022, 2022
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This study describes and evaluates a new downscaling scheme that addresses the need for hillslope-scale atmospheric forcing time series for modelling the local impact of regional climate change on the land surface in mountain areas. The method has a global scope and is able to generate all model forcing variables required for hydrological and land surface modelling. This is important, as impact models require high-resolution forcings such as those generated here to produce meaningful results.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
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This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Achille Capelli, Franziska Koch, Patrick Henkel, Markus Lamm, Florian Appel, Christoph Marty, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 16, 505–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-505-2022, 2022
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Snow occurrence, snow amount, snow density and liquid water content (LWC) can vary considerably with climatic conditions and elevation. We show that low-cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sensors as GPS can be used for reliably measuring the amount of water stored in the snowpack or snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth and the LWC under a broad range of climatic conditions met at different elevations in the Swiss Alps.
Zacharie Barrou Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Olivier Hagolle, Michaël Ablain, Rémi Jugier, Germain Salgues, Florence Marti, Aurore Dupuis, Marie Dumont, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4975–4980, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4975-2021, 2021
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Since 2020, the Copernicus High Resolution Snow & Ice Monitoring Service has distributed snow cover maps at 20 m resolution over Europe in near-real time. These products are derived from the Sentinel-2 Earth observation mission, with a revisit time of 5 d or less (cloud-permitting). Here we show the good accuracy of the snow detection over a wide range of regions in Europe, except in dense forest regions where the snow cover is hidden by the trees.
Christian Voigt, Karsten Schulz, Franziska Koch, Karl-Friedrich Wetzel, Ludger Timmen, Till Rehm, Hartmut Pflug, Nico Stolarczuk, Christoph Förste, and Frank Flechtner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5047–5064, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5047-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5047-2021, 2021
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A continuously operating superconducting gravimeter at the Zugspitze summit is introduced to support hydrological studies of the Partnach spring catchment known as the Zugspitze research catchment. The observed gravity residuals reflect total water storage variations at the observation site. Hydro-gravimetric analysis show a high correlation between gravity and the snow water equivalent, with a gravimetric footprint of up to 4 km radius enabling integral insights into this high alpine catchment.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Xiaodan Wu, Kathrin Naegeli, Valentina Premier, Carlo Marin, Dujuan Ma, Jingping Wang, and Stefan Wunderle
The Cryosphere, 15, 4261–4279, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4261-2021, 2021
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We performed a comprehensive accuracy assessment of an Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer global area coverage snow-cover extent time series dataset for the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The sensor-to-sensor consistency, the accuracy related to snow depth, elevations, land-cover types, slope, and aspects, and topographical variability were also explored. Our analysis shows an overall accuracy of 94 % in comparison with in situ station data, which is the same with MOD10A1 V006.
Michael Weber, Franziska Koch, Matthias Bernhardt, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2869–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2869-2021, 2021
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We compared a suite of globally available meteorological and DEM data with in situ data for physically based snow hydrological modelling in a small high-alpine catchment. Although global meteorological data were less suited to describe the snowpack properly, transferred station data from a similar location in the vicinity and substituting single variables with global products performed well. In addition, using 30 m global DEM products as model input was useful in such complex terrain.
Michael Warscher, Thomas Marke, and Ulrich Strasser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-68, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Continuous observations of snow and climate in high altitudes are still sparse. We present data from automatic weather and snow stations in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) that include continuous recordings of snow cover properties (snow depth, water equivalent, density, solid and liquid water content, snow temperature profiles, surface temperature, snow drift). The data can be used in different scientific fields, as well as in operational applications, i.e., avalanche warning and flood forecasting.
Michael Matiu, Alice Crespi, Giacomo Bertoldi, Carlo Maria Carmagnola, Christoph Marty, Samuel Morin, Wolfgang Schöner, Daniele Cat Berro, Gabriele Chiogna, Ludovica De Gregorio, Sven Kotlarski, Bruno Majone, Gernot Resch, Silvia Terzago, Mauro Valt, Walter Beozzo, Paola Cianfarra, Isabelle Gouttevin, Giorgia Marcolini, Claudia Notarnicola, Marcello Petitta, Simon C. Scherrer, Ulrich Strasser, Michael Winkler, Marc Zebisch, Andrea Cicogna, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Debernardi, Mattia Faletto, Mauro Gaddo, Lorenzo Giovannini, Luca Mercalli, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Andrea Sušnik, Alberto Trenti, Stefano Urbani, and Viktor Weilguni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1343–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, 2021
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The first Alpine-wide assessment of station snow depth has been enabled by a collaborative effort of the research community which involves more than 30 partners, 6 countries, and more than 2000 stations. It shows how snow in the European Alps matches the climatic zones and gives a robust estimate of observed changes: stronger decreases in the snow season at low elevations and in spring at all elevations, however, with considerable regional differences.
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Short summary
A service to enable real-time optimization of grooming and snow-making at ski resorts was developed and evaluated using both GNSS-measured snow depth and spaceborne snow maps derived from Copernicus Sentinel-2. The correlation to the ground observation data was high. Potential sources for the overestimation of the snow depth by the simulations are mainly the impact of snow redistribution by skiers, compensation of uneven terrain, or spontaneous local adaptions of the snow management.
A service to enable real-time optimization of grooming and snow-making at ski resorts was...
