Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, 2018
The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, 2018

Research article 16 Mar 2018

Research article | 16 Mar 2018

Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic

Matthias Rabatel et al.

Related authors

Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean 2010–2019
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102,,, 2021
Short summary
Training a supermodel with noisy and sparse observations: a case study with CPT and the synch rule on SPEEDO - v.1
Francine Janneke Schevenhoven and Alberto Carrassi
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,,, 2021
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F
Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 15, 3207–3227,,, 2021
Short summary
Inferring the instability of a dynamical system from the skill of data assimilation exercises
Yumeng Chen, Alberto Carrassi, and Valerio Lucarini
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss.,,, 2021
Preprint under review for NPG
Short summary
Estimating instantaneous sea-ice dynamics from space using the bi-static radar measurements of Earth Explorer 10 candidate Harmony
Marcel Kleinherenbrink, Anton Korosov, Thomas Newman, Andreas Theodosiou, Alexander S. Komarov, Yuanhao Li, Gert Mulder, Pierre Rampal, Julienne Stroeve, and Paco Lopez-Dekker
The Cryosphere, 15, 3101–3118,,, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Sea Ice
An X-ray micro-tomographic study of the pore space, permeability and percolation threshold of young sea ice
Sönke Maus, Martin Schneebeli, and Andreas Wiegmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 4047–4072,,, 2021
Short summary
Calibration of sea ice drift forecasts using random forest algorithms
Cyril Palerme and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 15, 3989–4004,,, 2021
Short summary
Multiscale variations in Arctic sea ice motion and links to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Dongyang Fu, Bei Liu, Yali Qi, Guo Yu, Haoen Huang, and Lilian Qu
The Cryosphere, 15, 3797–3811,,, 2021
Short summary
The flexural strength of bonded ice
Andrii Murdza, Arttu Polojärvi, Erland M. Schulson, and Carl E. Renshaw
The Cryosphere, 15, 2957–2967,,, 2021
Short summary
Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift summer sea ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification
H. Jakob Belter, Thomas Krumpen, Luisa von Albedyll, Tatiana A. Alekseeva, Gerit Birnbaum, Sergei V. Frolov, Stefan Hendricks, Andreas Herber, Igor Polyakov, Ian Raphael, Robert Ricker, Sergei S. Serovetnikov, Melinda Webster, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 15, 2575–2591,,, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Abi-Zeid, I. and Frost, J. R.: SARPlan: A decision support system for Canadian Search and Rescue Operations, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 162, 630–653, 2005.
Bertino, L., Bergh, J., and Xie, J.: Evaluation of uncertainties by ensemble simulation, Tech. Rep. Tech. Rep. 355, NERSC, ART JIP Deliverable 3.3, Bergen, Norway, 2015.
Bonan, B., Nichols, N. K., Baines, M. J., and Partridge, D.: Data assimilation for moving mesh methods with an application to ice sheet modelling, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 515–534,, 2017.
Bouillon, S. and Rampal, P.: Presentation of the dynamical core of neXtSIM, a new sea ice model, Ocean Model., 91, 23–37, 2015a.
Bouillon, S. and Rampal, P.: On producing sea ice deformation data sets from SAR-derived sea ice motion, The Cryosphere, 9, 663–673,, 2015b.
Short summary
Large deviations still exist between sea ice forecasts and observations because of both missing physics in models and uncertainties on model inputs. We investigate how the new sea ice model neXtSIM is sensitive to uncertainties in the winds. We highlight and quantify the role of the internal forces in the ice on this sensitivity and show that neXtSIM is better at predicting sea ice drift than a free-drift (without internal forces) ice model and is a skilful tool for search and rescue operations.