Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018
The Cryosphere, 12, 935–953, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018

Research article 16 Mar 2018

Research article | 16 Mar 2018

Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic

Matthias Rabatel et al.

Data sets

Arctic System Reanalysis version 2 National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and Polar Meterology Group/Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center/The Ohio State University https://doi.org/10.5065/D6X9291B

{IABP Drifting Buoy Pressure, Temperature, Position, and Interpolated Ice Velocity, Version 1 I. Rigor https://doi.org/10.7265/N53X84K7

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Short summary
Large deviations still exist between sea ice forecasts and observations because of both missing physics in models and uncertainties on model inputs. We investigate how the new sea ice model neXtSIM is sensitive to uncertainties in the winds. We highlight and quantify the role of the internal forces in the ice on this sensitivity and show that neXtSIM is better at predicting sea ice drift than a free-drift (without internal forces) ice model and is a skilful tool for search and rescue operations.