Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic
Matthias Rabatel et al.
Arctic System Reanalysis version 2National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research, and Polar Meterology Group/Byrd Polar and Climate
Research Center/The Ohio State University https://doi.org/10.5065/D6X9291B
Large deviations still exist between sea ice forecasts and observations because of both missing physics in models and uncertainties on model inputs. We investigate how the new sea ice model neXtSIM is sensitive to uncertainties in the winds. We highlight and quantify the role of the internal forces in the ice on this sensitivity and show that neXtSIM is better at predicting sea ice drift than a free-drift (without internal forces) ice model and is a skilful tool for search and rescue operations.
Large deviations still exist between sea ice forecasts and observations because of both missing...