Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
08 Feb 2017
Brief communication |
| 08 Feb 2017
Brief communication: Observations of a glacier outburst flood from Lhotse Glacier, Everest area, Nepal
Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Alton C. Byers
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Elizabeth A. Byers
Appalachian Ecology, Elkins, WV, USA
Daene C. McKinney
Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
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Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024
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Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, 2024
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
Jonathan M. Lala, David R. Rounce, and Daene C. McKinney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3721–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018, 2018
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Many glacial lakes in the Himalayas are held in place by natural sediment dams, which are prone to collapse, causing a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). This study models a GLOF as a process chain, in which an avalanche enters the lake, creates a large wave that erodes the sediment dam, and produces a flood downstream. Results indicate that Imja Tsho presents little hazard for the next 30 years, but the model is replicable and should be used at other lakes that may present greater hazard.
Ann V. Rowan, Lindsey Nicholson, Emily Collier, Duncan J. Quincey, Morgan J. Gibson, Patrick Wagnon, David R. Rounce, Sarah S. Thompson, Owen King, C. Scott Watson, Tristram D. L. Irvine-Fynn, and Neil F. Glasser
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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Many glaciers in the Himalaya are covered with thick layers of rock debris that acts as an insulating blanket and so reduces melting of the underlying ice. Little is known about how melt beneath supraglacial debris varies across glaciers and through the monsoon season. We measured debris temperatures across three glaciers and several years to investigate seasonal trends, and found that sub-debris ice melt can be predicted using a temperature–depth relationship with surface temperature data.
David R. Rounce, Daene C. McKinney, Jonathan M. Lala, Alton C. Byers, and C. Scott Watson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3455–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3455-2016, 2016
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Glacial lake outburst floods pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure as they rapidly unleash stored lake water. Nepal is home to many potentially dangerous glacial lakes, yet a holistic understanding of the hazards faced by these lakes is lacking. This study develops a framework using remotely sensed data to investigate the hazards and risks associated with each glacial lake and discusses how this assessment may help inform future management actions.
D. R. Rounce, D. J. Quincey, and D. C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 9, 2295–2310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, 2015
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A debris-covered glacier energy balance was used to model debris temperatures and sub-debris ablation rates on Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier during the 2014 melt season. Field measurements were used to assess model performance. A novel method was also developed using Structure from Motion to estimate the surface roughness. Lastly, the effects of temporal resolution, i.e., 6h and daily time steps, and various methods for estimating the latent heat flux were also investigated.
M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, A. C. Byers, D. R. Rounce, C. Portocarrero, and D. Lamsal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1401–1412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015, 2015
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The potential flooding impacts from Imja glacial lake in Nepal were studied using a two-dimensional debris-flow model to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures to reduce possible flooding impacts to downstream communities by lowering the lake level. The results indicate that only a minor benefits is achieved with modest (~3m) lowering and lowering of 20m almost eliminates all flood impact at Dingboche.
M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, D. R. Rounce, and A. C. Byers
The Cryosphere, 8, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014, 2014
D. R. Rounce and D. C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 8, 1317–1329, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1317-2014, 2014
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 18, 5045–5066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024, 2024
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Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, 2024
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
Alton C. Byers, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Dan H. Shugar, Daniel McGrath, Mohan B. Chand, and Ram Avtar
The Cryosphere, 18, 711–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-711-2024, 2024
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In spite of enhanced technologies, many large cryospheric events remain unreported because of their remoteness, inaccessibility, or poor communications. In this Brief communication, we report on a large ice-debris avalanche that occurred sometime between 16 and 21 August 2022 in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), eastern Nepal.
Jonathan M. Lala, David R. Rounce, and Daene C. McKinney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3721–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Many glacial lakes in the Himalayas are held in place by natural sediment dams, which are prone to collapse, causing a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). This study models a GLOF as a process chain, in which an avalanche enters the lake, creates a large wave that erodes the sediment dam, and produces a flood downstream. Results indicate that Imja Tsho presents little hazard for the next 30 years, but the model is replicable and should be used at other lakes that may present greater hazard.
Rachel E. Chisolm and Daene C. McKinney
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1373–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1373-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1373-2018, 2018
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This paper studies the lake dynamics for avalanche-triggered glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range in Ancash, Peru. Lake Palcacocha is used as a case study to analyze the upper watershed processes that typically comprise a GLOF event, specifically the lake dynamics when an avalanche produces a large displacement wave that might overtop and erode the lake-damming moraine.
Ann V. Rowan, Lindsey Nicholson, Emily Collier, Duncan J. Quincey, Morgan J. Gibson, Patrick Wagnon, David R. Rounce, Sarah S. Thompson, Owen King, C. Scott Watson, Tristram D. L. Irvine-Fynn, and Neil F. Glasser
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Many glaciers in the Himalaya are covered with thick layers of rock debris that acts as an insulating blanket and so reduces melting of the underlying ice. Little is known about how melt beneath supraglacial debris varies across glaciers and through the monsoon season. We measured debris temperatures across three glaciers and several years to investigate seasonal trends, and found that sub-debris ice melt can be predicted using a temperature–depth relationship with surface temperature data.
David R. Rounce, Daene C. McKinney, Jonathan M. Lala, Alton C. Byers, and C. Scott Watson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3455–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3455-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3455-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods pose a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure as they rapidly unleash stored lake water. Nepal is home to many potentially dangerous glacial lakes, yet a holistic understanding of the hazards faced by these lakes is lacking. This study develops a framework using remotely sensed data to investigate the hazards and risks associated with each glacial lake and discusses how this assessment may help inform future management actions.
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Rachel E. Chisolm, Denny S. Rivas, Cesar Portocarrero, and Daene C. McKinney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2519–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016, 2016
Short summary
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This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha above the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes starting form an avalanche falling into the lake and leading to a possible GLOF are simulated and converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine.
D. R. Rounce, D. J. Quincey, and D. C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 9, 2295–2310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2295-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A debris-covered glacier energy balance was used to model debris temperatures and sub-debris ablation rates on Imja-Lhotse Shar Glacier during the 2014 melt season. Field measurements were used to assess model performance. A novel method was also developed using Structure from Motion to estimate the surface roughness. Lastly, the effects of temporal resolution, i.e., 6h and daily time steps, and various methods for estimating the latent heat flux were also investigated.
D. S. Rivas, M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, B. R. Hodges, and D. C. McKinney
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1163–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1163-2015, 2015
M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, A. C. Byers, D. R. Rounce, C. Portocarrero, and D. Lamsal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1401–1412, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1401-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The potential flooding impacts from Imja glacial lake in Nepal were studied using a two-dimensional debris-flow model to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures to reduce possible flooding impacts to downstream communities by lowering the lake level. The results indicate that only a minor benefits is achieved with modest (~3m) lowering and lowering of 20m almost eliminates all flood impact at Dingboche.
M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, D. R. Rounce, and A. C. Byers
The Cryosphere, 8, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014, 2014
D. R. Rounce and D. C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 8, 1317–1329, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1317-2014, 2014
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The Cryosphere, 16, 4593–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, 2022
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Information on snow instability is crucial for avalanche forecasting. We introduce a novel machine-learning-based method to assess snow instability from snow stratigraphy simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. To develop the model, we compared observed and simulated snow profiles. Our model provides a probability of instability for every layer of a simulated snow profile, which allows detection of the weakest layer and assessment of its degree of instability with one single index.
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The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
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Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
Arnaud Caiserman, Roy C. Sidle, and Deo Raj Gurung
The Cryosphere, 16, 3295–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, 2022
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Snow avalanches cause considerable material and human damage in all mountain regions of the world. We present the first model to automatically inventory avalanche deposits at the scale of a catchment area – here the Amu Panj in Afghanistan – every year since 1990. This model called Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE) is available online on the Google Engine. SAFE has been designed to be simple and universal to use. Nearly 810 000 avalanches were detected over the 32 years studied.
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The Cryosphere, 16, 1447–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1447-2022, 2022
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We developed three deep learning models (CNN, LSTM, and combined CN-LSTM networks) to predict breakup ice-jam events to be used as an early warning system of possible flooding in rivers. In the models, we used hydro-meteorological data associated with breakup ice jams. The models show excellent performance, and the main finding is that the CN-LSTM model is superior to the CNN-only and LSTM-only networks in both training and generalization accuracy.
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The Cryosphere, 16, 1333–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, 2022
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On 22 March 2021, a ~ 50 Mm 3 ice-rock avalanche occurred from 6500 m a.s.l. in the Sedongpu basin, southeastern Tibet. It caused temporary blockage of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra. We utilize field investigations, high-resolution satellite imagery, seismic records, and meteorological data to analyse the evolution of the 2021 event and its impact, discuss potential drivers, and briefly reflect on implications for the sustainable development of the region.
Hippolyte Kern, Nicolas Eckert, Vincent Jomelli, Delphine Grancher, Michael Deschatres, and Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta
The Cryosphere, 15, 4845–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, 2021
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Snow avalanches are a major component of the mountain cryosphere that often put people, settlements, and infrastructures at risk. This study investigated avalanche path morphological factors controlling snow deposit volumes, a critical aspect of snow avalanche dynamics that remains poorly known. Different statistical techniques show a slight but significant link between deposit volumes and avalanche path morphology.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Benjamin Reuter, Grégoire Bobillier, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 15, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, 2021
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The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Benjamin Reuter, and Frank Techel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3293–3315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, 2021
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Snow avalanches threaten people and infrastructure in snow-covered mountain regions. To mitigate the effects of avalanches, warnings are issued by public forecasting services. Presently, the five danger levels are described in qualitative terms. We aim to characterize the avalanche danger levels based on expert field observations of snow instability. Our findings contribute to an evidence-based description of danger levels and to improve consistency and accuracy of avalanche forecasts.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
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This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
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Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
Pascal Haegeli, Bret Shandro, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 15, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, 2021
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Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Using avalanche problem information from public avalanche bulletins, this study presents a new approach for examining the effect of these atmospheric oscillations on the nature of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Lide Tian, Yongwei Sheng, Lazhu, Jingjuan Liao, Huabiao Zhao, Wei Yang, Kun Yang, Etienne Berthier, Fanny Brun, Yang Gao, Meilin Zhu, and Guangjian Wu
The Cryosphere, 15, 199–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, 2021
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Two glaciers in the Aru range, western Tibetan Plateau (TP), collapsed suddenly on 17 July and 21 September 2016, respectively, causing fatal damage to local people and their livestock. The impact of the glacier collapses on the two downstream lakes (i.e., Aru Co and Memar Co) is investigated in terms of lake morphology, water level and water temperature. Our results provide a baseline in understanding the future lake response to glacier melting on the TP under a warming climate.
Frank Techel, Karsten Müller, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 14, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, 2020
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Exploring a large data set of snow stability tests and avalanche observations, we quantitatively describe the three key elements that characterize avalanche danger: snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size. The findings will aid in refining the definitions of the avalanche danger scale and in fostering its consistent usage.
Xingyue Li, Betty Sovilla, Chenfanfu Jiang, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 14, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, 2020
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This numerical study investigates how different types of snow avalanches behave, how key factors affect their dynamics and flow regime transitions, and what are the underpinning rules. According to the unified trends obtained from the simulations, we are able to quantify the complex interplay between bed friction, slope geometry and snow mechanical properties (cohesion and friction) on the maximum velocity, runout distance and deposit height of the avalanches.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Frank Techel, Andreas Stoffel, and Benjamin Reuter
The Cryosphere, 14, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, 2020
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Snow avalanches represent a major natural hazard in seasonally snow-covered mountain regions around the world. To avoid periods and locations of high hazard, avalanche warnings are issued by public authorities. In these bulletins, the hazard is characterized by a danger level. Since the danger levels are not well defined, we analyzed a large data set of avalanches to improve the description. Our findings show discrepancies in present usage of the danger scale and show ways to improve the scale.
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
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Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Yves Bühler, Elisabeth D. Hafner, Benjamin Zweifel, Mathias Zesiger, and Holger Heisig
The Cryosphere, 13, 3225–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, 2019
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We manually map 18 737 avalanche outlines based on SPOT6 optical satellite imagery acquired in January 2018. This is the most complete and accurate avalanche documentation of a large avalanche period covering a big part of the Swiss Alps. This unique dataset can be applied for the validation of other remote-sensing-based avalanche-mapping procedures and for updating avalanche databases to improve hazard maps.
Daniel Falaschi, Andreas Kääb, Frank Paul, Takeo Tadono, Juan Antonio Rivera, and Luis Eduardo Lenzano
The Cryosphere, 13, 997–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-997-2019, 2019
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In March 2007, the Leñas Glacier in the Central Andes of Argentina collapsed and released an ice avalanche that travelled a distance of 2 km. We analysed aerial photos, satellite images and field evidence to investigate the evolution of the glacier from the 1950s through the present day. A clear potential trigger of the collapse could not be identified from available meteorological and seismic data, nor could a significant change in glacier geometry leading to glacier instability be detected.
Anselm Köhler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Mathias Bavay, Jim McElwaine, and Betty Sovilla
The Cryosphere, 12, 3759–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, 2018
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Snow avalanches show complicated flow behaviour, characterized by several flow regimes which coexist in one avalanche. In this work, we analyse flow regime transitions where a powder snow avalanche transforms into a plug flow avalanche by incorporating warm snow due to entrainment. Prediction of such a transition is very important for hazard mitigation, as the efficiency of protection dams are strongly dependent on the flow regime, and our results should be incorporated into avalanche models.
Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Jeffrey Kargel, Andreas Kääb, Simon Gascoin, Gregory Leonard, Etienne Berthier, Alina Karki, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 12, 2883–2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, 2018
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In Tibet, two glaciers suddenly collapsed in summer 2016 and produced two gigantic ice avalanches, killing nine people. This kind of phenomenon is extremely rare. By combining a detailed modelling study and high-resolution satellite observations, we show that the event was triggered by an increasing meltwater supply in the fine-grained material underneath the two glaciers. Contrary to what is often thought, this event is not linked to a change in the thermal condition at the glacier base.
Regula Frauenfelder, Ketil Isaksen, Matthew J. Lato, and Jeannette Noetzli
The Cryosphere, 12, 1531–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1531-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1531-2018, 2018
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On 26 June 2008, a rock avalanche with a volume of ca. 500 000 m3 detached in the north-east facing slope of Polvartinden, a high-alpine peak in northern Norway. Ice was observed in the failure zone shortly after the rock avalanche, leading to the assumption that degrading permafrost might have played an important role in the detaching of the Signaldalen rock avalanche. Here, we present a four-year series of temperature measurements from the site and subsequent temperature modelling results.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
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Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Vanessa Round, Silvan Leinss, Matthias Huss, Christoph Haemmig, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 11, 723–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-723-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-723-2017, 2017
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Recent surging of Kyagar Glacier (Karakoram) caused a hazardous ice-dammed lake to form and burst in 2015 and 2016. We use remotely sensed glacier surface velocities and surface elevation to observe dramatic changes in speed and mass distribution during the surge. The surge was hydrologically controlled with rapid summer onset and dramatic termination following lake outburst. Since the surge, the potential outburst hazard has remained high, and continued remote monitoring is crucial.
Jérome Faillettaz, Martin Funk, and Marco Vagliasindi
The Cryosphere, 10, 1191–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016, 2016
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The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance thanks to very accurate surface displacement measurements taken right up to the final event.
This break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experience a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture.
This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time.
Margaret M. Darrow, Nora L. Gyswyt, Jocelyn M. Simpson, Ronald P. Daanen, and Trent D. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 10, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-977-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-977-2016, 2016
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Frozen debris lobes (FDLs) are slow-moving landslides in permafrost. Several FDLs are located adjacent to the Dalton Highway in Alaska's Brooks Range, and may pose a risk to adjacent infrastructure as their rates of movement increase. Through a comprehensive overview of eight FDLs, we found that FDL movement is asynchronous, surface features suggest that increased movement rates correlate to general instability, and the closest FDL will reach the current Dalton Highway alignment by 2023.
J. Gaume, A. van Herwijnen, G. Chambon, K. W. Birkeland, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1915–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, 2015
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We proposed a new approach to characterize the dynamic phase of crack propagation in weak snowpack layers as well as fracture arrest propensity by means of numerical "propagation saw test" simulations based on the discrete element method. Crack propagation speed and distance before fracture arrest were derived from the simulations for different snowpack configurations and mechanical properties. Numerical and experimental results were compared and the mechanical processes at play were discussed.
J. Gaume, G. Chambon, N. Eckert, M. Naaim, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 795–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, 2015
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Slab tensile failure propensity is examined using a mechanical--statistical model of the slab–-weak layer (WL) system based on the finite element method. This model accounts for WL heterogeneity, stress redistribution by elasticity of the slab and the slab possible tensile failure. For realistic values of the parameters, the tensile failure propensity is mainly driven by slab properties. Hard and thick snow slabs are more prone to wide–scale crack propagation and thus lead to larger avalanches.
E. H. Bair, R. Simenhois, A. van Herwijnen, and K. Birkeland
The Cryosphere, 8, 1407–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, 2014
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Short summary
On 12 June 2016, the authors witnessed a glacier outburst flood with origins from Lhotse Glacier, located in the Everest region of Nepal. Observations regarding the size of the flood and a reconstruction of its path immediately following the event were performed. Most of the flood water was stored in the glacier's subsurface and likely released by dam failure. A similar flood from Lhotse Glacier was also reported by local community members on 25 May 2015.
On 12 June 2016, the authors witnessed a glacier outburst flood with origins from Lhotse...
