Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-267-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-267-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Jan 2017
Research article |
| 27 Jan 2017
Atmospheric forcing of sea ice anomalies in the Ross Sea polynya region
Ethan R. Dale
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Gateway Antarctica, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Adrian J. McDonald
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Jack H. J. Coggins
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Wolfgang Rack
Gateway Antarctica, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Related authors
Brian Nathan, Stefanie Kremser, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Greg Bodeker, Leroy Bird, Ethan Dale, Dongqi Lin, Gustavo Olivares, and Elizabeth Somervell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14089–14108, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14089-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The MAPM project showcases a method to improve estimates of PM2.5 emissions through an advanced statistical technique that is still new to the aerosol community. Using Christchurch, NZ, as a test bed, measurements from a field campaign in winter 2019 are incorporated into this new approach. An overestimation from local inventory estimates is identified. This technique may be exported to other urban areas in need.
Ethan R. Dale, Stefanie Kremser, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Greg E. Bodeker, Leroy J. Bird, Gustavo Olivares, Guy Coulson, Elizabeth Somervell, Woodrow Pattinson, Jonathan Barte, Jan-Niklas Schmidt, Nariefa Abrahim, Adrian J. McDonald, and Peter Kuma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2053–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
MAPM is a project whose goal is to develop a method to infer particulate matter (PM) emissions maps from PM concentration measurements. In support of MAPM, we conducted a winter field campaign in New Zealand. In addition to two types of instruments measuring PM, an array of other meteorological sensors were deployed, measuring temperature and wind speed as well as probing the vertical structure of the lower atmosphere. In this article, we present the measurements taken during this campaign.
Luke Edgar Whitehead, Adrian James McDonald, and Adrien Guyot
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5765–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Supercooled liquid water cloud is important to represent in weather and climate models, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Previous work has developed a new machine learning method for measuring supercooled liquid water in Antarctic clouds using simple lidar observations. We evaluate this technique using a lidar dataset from Christchurch, New Zealand, and develop an updated algorithm for accurate supercooled liquid water detection at mid-latitudes.
Gemma M. Brett, Greg H. Leonard, Wolfgang Rack, Christian Haas, Patricia J. Langhorne, Natalie J. Robinson, and Anne Irvin
The Cryosphere, 18, 3049–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial meltwater with ice crystals flows from beneath ice shelves, causing thicker sea ice with sub-ice platelet layers (SIPLs) beneath. Thicker sea ice and SIPL reveal where and how much meltwater is outflowing. We collected continuous measurements of sea ice and SIPL. In winter, we observed rapid SIPL growth with strong winds. In spring, SIPLs grew when tides caused offshore circulation. Wind-driven and tidal circulation influence glacial meltwater outflow from ice shelf cavities.
Yusuf A. Bhatti, Laura E. Revell, Alex J. Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, Alex T. Archibald, Jonny Williams, Abhijith U. Venugopal, Catherine Hardacre, and Erik Behrens
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15181–15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15181-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are a large source of uncertainty over the Southern Ocean. A dominant source of sulfate aerosol in this region is dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is poorly simulated by climate models. We show the sensitivity of simulated atmospheric DMS to the choice of oceanic DMS data set and emission scheme. We show that oceanic DMS has twice the influence on atmospheric DMS than the emission scheme. Simulating DMS more accurately in climate models will help to constrain aerosol uncertainty.
Zhangcheng Pei, Sonya L. Fiddes, W. John R. French, Simon P. Alexander, Marc D. Mallet, Peter Kuma, and Adrian McDonald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14691–14714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14691-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use ground-based observations to evaluate a climate model and a satellite product in simulating surface radiation and investigate how radiation biases are influenced by cloud properties over the Southern Ocean. We find that significant radiation biases exist in both the model and satellite. The cloud fraction and cloud occurrence play an important role in affecting radiation biases. We suggest further development for the model and satellite using ground-based observations.
McKenna W. Stanford, Ann M. Fridlind, Israel Silber, Andrew S. Ackerman, Greg Cesana, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Alain Protat, Simon Alexander, and Adrian McDonald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9037–9069, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9037-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9037-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds play an important role in the Earth’s climate system as they modulate the amount of radiation that either reaches the surface or is reflected back to space. This study demonstrates an approach to robustly evaluate surface-based observations against a large-scale model. We find that the large-scale model precipitates too infrequently relative to observations, contrary to literature documentation suggesting otherwise based on satellite measurements.
Peter Kuma, Frida A.-M. Bender, Alex Schuddeboom, Adrian J. McDonald, and Øyvind Seland
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 523–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a machine learning method for determining cloud types in climate model output and satellite observations based on ground observations of cloud genera. We analyse cloud type biases and changes with temperature in climate models and show that the bias is anticorrelated with climate sensitivity. Models simulating decreasing stratiform and increasing cumuliform clouds with increased CO2 concentration tend to have higher climate sensitivity than models simulating the opposite tendencies.
Adrien Guyot, Alain Protat, Simon P. Alexander, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Peter Kuma, and Adrian McDonald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3663–3681, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ceilometers are instruments that are widely deployed as part of operational networks. They are usually not able to detect cloud phase. Here, we propose an evaluation of various methods to detect supercooled liquid water with ceilometer observations, using an extensive dataset from Davis, Antarctica. Our results highlight the possibility for ceilometers to detect supercooled liquid water in clouds.
Alex R. Aves, Laura E. Revell, Sally Gaw, Helena Ruffell, Alex Schuddeboom, Ngaire E. Wotherspoon, Michelle LaRue, and Adrian J. McDonald
The Cryosphere, 16, 2127–2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2127-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study confirms the presence of microplastics in Antarctic snow, highlighting the extent of plastic pollution globally. Fresh snow was collected from Ross Island, Antarctica, and subsequent analysis identified an average of 29 microplastic particles per litre of melted snow. The most likely source of these airborne microplastics is local scientific research stations; however, modelling shows their origin could have been up to 6000 km away.
Brian Nathan, Stefanie Kremser, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Greg Bodeker, Leroy Bird, Ethan Dale, Dongqi Lin, Gustavo Olivares, and Elizabeth Somervell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14089–14108, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14089-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The MAPM project showcases a method to improve estimates of PM2.5 emissions through an advanced statistical technique that is still new to the aerosol community. Using Christchurch, NZ, as a test bed, measurements from a field campaign in winter 2019 are incorporated into this new approach. An overestimation from local inventory estimates is identified. This technique may be exported to other urban areas in need.
Gemma M. Brett, Daniel Price, Wolfgang Rack, and Patricia J. Langhorne
The Cryosphere, 15, 4099–4115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice shelf meltwater in the surface ocean affects sea ice formation, causing it to be thicker and, in particular conditions, to have a loose mass of platelet ice crystals called a sub‐ice platelet layer beneath. This causes the sea ice freeboard to stand higher above sea level. In this study, we demonstrate for the first time that the signature of ice shelf meltwater in the surface ocean manifesting as higher sea ice freeboard in McMurdo Sound is detectable from space using satellite technology.
Stefanie Kremser, Mike Harvey, Peter Kuma, Sean Hartery, Alexia Saint-Macary, John McGregor, Alex Schuddeboom, Marc von Hobe, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Alex Geddes, Richard Querel, Adrian McDonald, Maija Peltola, Karine Sellegri, Israel Silber, Cliff S. Law, Connor J. Flynn, Andrew Marriner, Thomas C. J. Hill, Paul J. DeMott, Carson C. Hume, Graeme Plank, Geoffrey Graham, and Simon Parsons
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3115–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3115-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol–cloud interactions over the Southern Ocean are poorly understood and remain a major source of uncertainty in climate models. This study presents ship-borne measurements, collected during a 6-week voyage into the Southern Ocean in 2018, that are an important supplement to satellite-based measurements. For example, these measurements include data on low-level clouds and aerosol composition in the marine boundary layer, which can be used in climate model evaluation efforts.
Ethan R. Dale, Stefanie Kremser, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Greg E. Bodeker, Leroy J. Bird, Gustavo Olivares, Guy Coulson, Elizabeth Somervell, Woodrow Pattinson, Jonathan Barte, Jan-Niklas Schmidt, Nariefa Abrahim, Adrian J. McDonald, and Peter Kuma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2053–2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2053-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
MAPM is a project whose goal is to develop a method to infer particulate matter (PM) emissions maps from PM concentration measurements. In support of MAPM, we conducted a winter field campaign in New Zealand. In addition to two types of instruments measuring PM, an array of other meteorological sensors were deployed, measuring temperature and wind speed as well as probing the vertical structure of the lower atmosphere. In this article, we present the measurements taken during this campaign.
Gemma M. Brett, Gregory H. Leonard, Wolfgang Rack, Christian Haas, Patricia J. Langhorne, and Anne Irvin
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-61, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Using a geophysical technique, we observe temporal variability in the influence of ice shelf meltwater on coastal sea ice which forms platelet ice crystals which contribute to the thickness of the sea ice and accumulate into a thick mass called a sub-ice platelet layer (SIPL). The variability observed in the SIPL indicated that circulation of ice shelf meltwater out from the cavity in McMurdo Sound is influenced by tides and strong offshore winds which affect surface ocean circulation.
Christian Haas, Patricia J. Langhorne, Wolfgang Rack, Greg H. Leonard, Gemma M. Brett, Daniel Price, Justin F. Beckers, and Alex J. Gough
The Cryosphere, 15, 247–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-247-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a method to remotely detect proxy signals of Antarctic ice shelf melt under adjacent sea ice. It is based on aircraft surveys with electromagnetic induction sounding. We found year-to-year variability of the ice shelf melt proxy in McMurdo Sound and spatial fine structure that support assumptions about the melt of the McMurdo Ice Shelf. With this method it will be possible to map and detect locations of intense ice shelf melt along the coast of Antarctica.
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Richard Querel, Israel Silber, and Connor J. Flynn
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 43–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-43-2021, 2021
Peter Kuma, Adrian J. McDonald, Olaf Morgenstern, Simon P. Alexander, John J. Cassano, Sally Garrett, Jamie Halla, Sean Hartery, Mike J. Harvey, Simon Parsons, Graeme Plank, Vidya Varma, and Jonny Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6607–6630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6607-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate clouds over the Southern Ocean in the climate model HadGEM3 and reanalysis MERRA-2 using ship-based ceilometer and radiosonde observations. We find the models underestimate cloud cover by 18–25 %, with clouds below 2 km dominant in reality but lacking in the models. We find a strong link between clouds, atmospheric stability and sea surface temperature in observations but not in the models, implying that sub-grid processes do not generate enough cloud in response to these conditions.
Laura E. Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Sean Hartery, Mike Harvey, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, Olaf Morgenstern, Adrian J. McDonald, Vidya Varma, Leroy Bird, and Alex Schuddeboom
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15447–15466, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15447-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols over the Southern Ocean consist primarily of sea salt and sulfate, yet are seasonally biased in our model. We test three sulfate chemistry schemes to investigate DMS oxidation, which forms sulfate aerosol. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations improve using more complex sulfate chemistry. We also show that a new sea spray aerosol source function, developed from measurements made on a recent Southern Ocean research voyage, improves the model's simulation of aerosol optical depth.
Christian T. Wild, Oliver J. Marsh, and Wolfgang Rack
The Cryosphere, 13, 3171–3191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3171-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In Antarctica, ocean tides control the motion of ice sheets near the coastline as well as melt rates underneath the floating ice. By combining the spatial advantage of rare but highly accurate satellite images with the temporal advantage of tide-prediction models, vertical displacement of floating ice due to ocean tides can now be predicted accurately. This allows the detailed study of ice-flow dynamics in areas that matter the most to the stability of Antarctica's ice sheets.
Daniel Price, Iman Soltanzadeh, Wolfgang Rack, and Ethan Dale
The Cryosphere, 13, 1409–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1409-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Snow depth on Antarctic sea ice is poorly mapped. We examine the usefulness of various snow products to provide snow depth information over Antarctic fast ice in McMurdo Sound, with a focus on a novel approach using a high-resolution numerical snow accumulation model. We find the model performs better than existing snow products from reanalysis products. However, when combining this information with satellite data to retrieve sea ice thickness, large uncertainties in thickness remain.
Ben Jolly, Peter Kuma, Adrian McDonald, and Simon Parsons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9723–9739, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9723-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9723-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds in the Ross Sea and Ross Ice Shelf regions are examined using a combination of satellite observations from the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellite datasets. We show that previous studies may have included an artefact at high altitudes which under-estimated cloud occurrence. We also find that the meteorological regime is a stronger control of cloud occurrence, cloud type and cloud top than season over this region, though season is a strong control on the phase of cloud.
Fraser Dennison, Adrian McDonald, and Olaf Morgenstern
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14075–14084, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14075-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone is not centred directly over the pole. In this research we examine how the position and shape of the ozone hole changes using a chemistry–climate model. As ozone becomes increasingly depleted during the late 20th century the centre of the ozone hole moves toward the west and becomes more circular. As the ozone hole recovers over the course of the 21st century the ozone hole moves back towards the east.
Wolfgang Rack, Matt A. King, Oliver J. Marsh, Christian T. Wild, and Dana Floricioiu
The Cryosphere, 11, 2481–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2481-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2481-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet involves fully understanding ice dynamics at the transition between grounded and floating ice. We map tidal bending of ice by satellite using InSAR, and we use precise GPS measurements with assumptions of tidal elastic bending to better interpret the satellite signal. It allows us to better define the grounding-line position and to refine the shape of tidal flexure profiles.
Leon S. Friedrich, Adrian J. McDonald, Gregory E. Bodeker, Kathy E. Cooper, Jared Lewis, and Alexander J. Paterson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 855–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-855-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-855-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Information from long-duration balloons flying in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during 2014 as part of X Project Loon are used to assess the quality of a number of different reanalyses. This work assesses the potential of the X Project Loon observations to validate outputs from the reanalysis models. In particular, we examined how the model winds compared with those derived from the balloon GPS information. We also examined simulated trajectories compared with the true trajectories.
D. Price, W. Rack, P. J. Langhorne, C. Haas, G. Leonard, and K. Barnsdale
The Cryosphere, 8, 1031–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1031-2014, 2014
O. J. Marsh, W. Rack, D. Floricioiu, N. R. Golledge, and W. Lawson
The Cryosphere, 7, 1375–1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1375-2013, 2013
P. E. Huck, G. E. Bodeker, S. Kremser, A. J. McDonald, M. Rex, and H. Struthers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3237–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3237-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3237-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate Interactions
Arctic glacier snowline altitudes rise 150 m over the last 4 decades
Triggers of the 2022 Larsen B multi-year landfast sea ice breakout and initial glacier response
Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level
Assessing the glacier projection uncertainties in the Patagonian Andes (40–56° S) from a catchment perspective
Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes
Changes in March mean snow water equivalent since the mid-20th century and the contributing factors in reanalyses and CMIP6 climate models
Climatic control of the surface mass balance of the Patagonian Icefields
Spatio-temporal reconstruction of winter glacier mass balance in the Alps, Scandinavia, Central Asia and western Canada (1981–2019) using climate reanalyses and machine learning
Impacts of snow assimilation on seasonal snow and meteorological forecasts for the Tibetan Plateau
The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet
A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats
Synoptic control over winter snowfall variability observed in a remote site of Apennine Mountains (Italy), 1884–2015
Network connectivity between the winter Arctic Oscillation and summer sea ice in CMIP6 models and observations
Land–atmosphere interactions in sub-polar and alpine climates in the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) models – Part 2: The role of changing vegetation
How does a change in climate variability impact the Greenland ice-sheet surface mass balance?
Evidence of elevation-dependent warming from the Chinese Tian Shan
The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run
On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change
Snow conditions in northern Europe: the dynamics of interannual variability versus projected long-term change
Diverging responses of high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios
Distributed summer air temperatures across mountain glaciers in the south-east Tibetan Plateau: temperature sensitivity and comparison with existing glacier datasets
Analyzing links between simulated Laptev Sea sea ice and atmospheric conditions over adjoining landmasses using causal-effect networks
Anthropogenic climate change versus internal climate variability: impacts on snow cover in the Swiss Alps
Clouds damp the radiative impacts of polar sea ice loss
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
Glacier runoff variations since 1955 in the Maipo River basin, in the semiarid Andes of central Chile
CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica
Optimization of over-summer snow storage at midlatitudes and low elevation
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model
Impact of warming shelf waters on ice mélange and terminus retreat at a large SE Greenland glacier
A long-term dataset of climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff in Svalbard (1957–2018)
An efficient surface energy–mass balance model for snow and ice
Brief communication: Understanding solar geoengineering's potential to limit sea level rise requires attention from cryosphere experts
Spring snow albedo feedback over northern Eurasia: Comparing in situ measurements with reanalysis products
The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation
Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models
Complex principal component analysis of mass balance changes on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Sonar gas flux estimation by bubble insonification: application to methane bubble flux from seep areas in the outer Laptev Sea
Brief communication: The global signature of post-1900 land ice wastage on vertical land motion
Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change
Brief communication: Impacts of a developing polynya off Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctica, triggered by grounding of iceberg B09B
A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets
Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds
Analyzing airflow in static ice caves by using the calcFLOW method
ENSO influence on surface energy and mass balance at Shallap Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru
Weak precipitation, warm winters and springs impact glaciers of south slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya) in the last 2 decades (1994–2013)
Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods
The effect of snow/sea ice type on the response of albedo and light penetration depth (e-folding depth) to increasing black carbon
Sensitivity of lake ice regimes to climate change in the Nordic region
Laura J. Larocca, James M. Lea, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Megan Phillips, Kara A. Lamantia, and Darrell S. Kaufman
The Cryosphere, 18, 3591–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present summer snowline altitude (SLA) time series for 269 Arctic glaciers. Between 1984 and 2022, SLAs rose ∼ 150 m, equating to a ∼ 127 m shift per 1 °C of summer warming. SLA is most strongly correlated with annual temperature variables, highlighting their dual effect on ablation and accumulation processes. We show that SLAs are rising fastest on low-elevation glaciers and that > 50 % of the studied glaciers could have SLAs that exceed the maximum ice elevation by 2100.
Naomi E. Ochwat, Ted A. Scambos, Alison F. Banwell, Robert S. Anderson, Michelle L. Maclennan, Ghislain Picard, Julia A. Shates, Sebastian Marinsek, Liliana Margonari, Martin Truffer, and Erin C. Pettit
The Cryosphere, 18, 1709–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1709-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On the Antarctic Peninsula, there is a small bay that had sea ice fastened to the shoreline (
fast ice) for over a decade. The fast ice stabilized the glaciers that fed into the ocean. In January 2022, the fast ice broke away. Using satellite data we found that this was because of low sea ice concentrations and a high long-period ocean wave swell. We find that the glaciers have responded to this event by thinning, speeding up, and retreating by breaking off lots of icebergs at remarkable rates.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2325, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1,920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Jakob Simon Dörr, David B. Bonan, Marius Årthun, Lea Svendsen, and Robert C. J. Wills
The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic sea-ice cover is retreating due to climate change, but this retreat is influenced by natural (internal) variability in the climate system. We use a new statistical method to investigate how much internal variability has affected trends in the summer and winter Arctic sea-ice cover using observations since 1979. Our results suggest that the impact of internal variability on sea-ice retreat might be lower than what climate models have estimated.
Jouni Räisänen
The Cryosphere, 17, 1913–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in snow amount since the mid-20th century are studied, focusing on the mechanisms that have changed the water equivalent of the snowpack (SWE). Both reanalysis and climate model data show a decrease in SWE in most of the Northern Hemisphere. The total winter precipitation has increased in most areas, but this has been compensated for by reduced snowfall-to-precipitation ratio and enhanced snowmelt. However, the details and magnitude of these trends vary between different data sets.
Tomás Carrasco-Escaff, Maisa Rojas, René Darío Garreaud, Deniz Bozkurt, and Marius Schaefer
The Cryosphere, 17, 1127–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate the interplay between climate and the Patagonian Icefields. By modeling the glacioclimatic conditions of the southern Andes, we found that the annual variations in net surface mass change experienced by these icefields are mainly controlled by annual variations in the air pressure field observed near the Drake Passage. Little dependence on main modes of variability was found, suggesting the Drake Passage as a key region for understanding the Patagonian Icefields.
Matteo Guidicelli, Matthias Huss, Marco Gabella, and Nadine Salzmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 977–1002, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-977-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spatio-temporal reconstruction of winter glacier mass balance is important for assessing long-term impacts of climate change. However, high-altitude regions significantly lack reliable observations, which is limiting the calibration of glaciological and hydrological models. We aim at improving knowledge on the spatio-temporal variations in winter glacier mass balance by exploring the combination of data from reanalyses and direct snow accumulation observations on glaciers with machine learning.
Wei Li, Jie Chen, Lu Li, Yvan J. Orsolini, Yiheng Xiang, Retish Senan, and Patricia de Rosnay
The Cryosphere, 16, 4985–5000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow assimilation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may influence seasonal forecasts over this region. To investigate the impacts of snow assimilation on the seasonal forecasts of snow, temperature and precipitation, twin ensemble reforecasts are initialized with and without snow assimilation above 1500 m altitude over the TP for spring and summer in 2018. The results show that snow assimilation can improve seasonal forecasts over the TP through the interaction between land and atmosphere.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, and Ginny Catania
The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Carmela De Vivo, and Giorgio Budillon
The Cryosphere, 16, 1741–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the snowfall variability observed from late XIX century to recent years in Montevergine (southern Italy) and discusses its relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main results lie in the absence of a trend until mid-1970s, in the strong reduction of the snowfall quantity and frequency from mid-1970s to 1990s and in the increase of both variables from early 2000s. In the past 50 years, the nivometric regime has been strongly modulated by AO and NAO indices.
William Gregory, Julienne Stroeve, and Michel Tsamados
The Cryosphere, 16, 1653–1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1653-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1653-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research was conducted to better understand how coupled climate models simulate one of the large-scale interactions between the atmosphere and Arctic sea ice that we see in observational data, the accurate representation of which is important for producing reliable forecasts of Arctic sea ice on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. With network theory, this work shows that models do not reflect this interaction well on average, which is likely due to regional biases in sea ice thickness.
Priscilla A. Mooney, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Anne Sophie Daloz, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 1383–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use multiple regional climate models to show that afforestation in sub-polar and alpine regions reduces the radiative impact of snow albedo on the atmosphere, reduces snow cover, and delays the start of the snowmelt season. This is important for local communities that are highly reliant on snowpack for water resources and winter tourism. However, models disagree on the amount of change particularly when snow is melting. This shows that more research is needed on snow–vegetation interactions.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-379, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-379, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland ice-sheet largely depends on the climate state. The uncertainties associated with the year-to-year variability have only a marginal impact on our simulated surface mass budget, this increases our confidence in projections and reconstructions. Basing the simulations based on proxies for, f.ex., temperature, overestimates the surface mass balance, as climatologies lead to small amounts of snowfall every day. This can be reduced by including sub-monthly precipitation variability.
Lu Gao, Haijun Deng, Xiangyong Lei, Jianhui Wei, Yaning Chen, Zhongqin Li, Miaomiao Ma, Xingwei Chen, Ying Chen, Meibing Liu, and Jianyun Gao
The Cryosphere, 15, 5765–5783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5765-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5765-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
There is a widespread controversy on the existence of the elevation-dependent warming (EDW) phenomenon due to the limited observations in high mountains. This study provides new evidence of EDW from the Chinese Tian Shan based on a high-resolution (1 km, 6-hourly) air temperature dataset. The result reveals the significant EDW on a monthly scale. The warming rate of the minimum temperature in winter showed a significant elevation dependence (p < 0.01), especially above 3000 m.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, Antoinette Alias, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.
Gerard H. Roe, John Erich Christian, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 1889–1905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.
Jouni Räisänen
The Cryosphere, 15, 1677–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1677-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1677-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Interannual variability of snow amount in northern Europe is studied. In the coldest areas, total winter precipitation governs snow amount variability. In warmer regions, the fraction of snowfall that survives without melting is more important. Since winter temperature and precipitation are positively correlated, there is often more snow in milder winters in the coldest areas. However, in model simulations of a warmer future climate, snow amount decreases nearly everywhere in northern Europe.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Thomas E. Shaw, Wei Yang, Álvaro Ayala, Claudio Bravo, Chuanxi Zhao, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 15, 595–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-595-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Near surface air temperature (Ta) is important for simulating the melting of glaciers, though its variability in space and time on mountain glaciers is still poorly understood. We combine new Ta observations on glacier in Tibet with several glacier datasets around the world to explore the applicability of an existing method to estimate glacier Ta based upon glacier flow distance. We make a first step at generalising a method and highlight the remaining unknowns for this field of research.
Zoé Rehder, Anne Laura Niederdrenk, Lars Kaleschke, and Lars Kutzbach
The Cryosphere, 14, 4201–4215, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4201-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand the connection between sea ice and permafrost, we investigate how sea ice interacts with the atmosphere over the adjacent landmass in the Laptev Sea region using a climate model. Melt of sea ice in spring is mainly controlled by the atmosphere; in fall, feedback mechanisms are important. Throughout summer, lower-than-usual sea ice leads to more southward transport of heat and moisture, but these links from sea ice to the atmosphere over land are weak.
Fabian Willibald, Sven Kotlarski, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, and Ralf Ludwig
The Cryosphere, 14, 2909–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change will significantly reduce snow cover, but the extent remains disputed. We use regional climate model data as a driver for a snow model to investigate the impacts of climate change and climate variability on snow. We show that natural climate variability is a dominant source of uncertainty in future snow trends. We show that anthropogenic climate change will change the interannual variability of snow. Those factors will increase the vulnerabilities of snow-dependent economies.
Ramdane Alkama, Patrick C. Taylor, Lorea Garcia-San Martin, Herve Douville, Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Didier Swingedouw, and Alessandro Cescatti
The Cryosphere, 14, 2673–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth is believed to strongly depend on clouds. Here, we investigate this relationship using satellite data and 32 climate models, showing that this relationship holds everywhere except over polar seas, where an increased reflection by clouds corresponds to an increase in absorbed solar radiation at the surface. This interplay between clouds and sea ice reduces by half the increase of net radiation at the surface that follows the sea ice retreat.
Lawrence Mudryk, María Santolaria-Otín, Gerhard Krinner, Martin Ménégoz, Chris Derksen, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Mike Brady, and Richard Essery
The Cryosphere, 14, 2495–2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze how well updated state-of-the-art climate models reproduce observed historical snow cover extent and snow mass and how they project that these quantities will change up to the year 2100. Overall the updated models better represent historical snow extent than previous models, and they simulate stronger historical trends in snow extent and snow mass. They project that spring snow extent will decrease by 8 % for each degree Celsius that the global surface air temperature increases.
Álvaro Ayala, David Farías-Barahona, Matthias Huss, Francesca Pellicciotti, James McPhee, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 14, 2005–2027, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2005-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct past glacier changes (1955–2016) and estimate the committed ice loss in the Maipo River basin (semi-arid Andes of Chile), with a focus on glacier runoff. We found that glacier volume has decreased by one-fifth since 1955 and that glacier runoff shows a sequence of decreasing maxima starting in a severe drought in 1968. As meltwater originating from the Andes plays a key role in this dry region, our results can be useful for developing adaptation or mitigation strategies.
Alice Barthel, Cécile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of six models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
Hannah S. Weiss, Paul R. Bierman, Yves Dubief, and Scott D. Hamshaw
The Cryosphere, 13, 3367–3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3367-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3367-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is devastating winter tourism. High-elevation, high-latitude ski centers have turned to saving snow over the summer. We present results of two field seasons to test and optimize over-summer snow storage at a midlatitude, low-elevation nordic ski center in the northeastern USA. In 2018, we tested coverings and found success overlaying 20 cm of wet woodchips with a reflective sheet. In 2019, we employed this strategy to a large pile and stored sufficient snow to open the ski season.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, and Antoinette Alias
The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over 1981–2010, we forced the model with observed and modelled sea surface conditions (SSCs). For the late 21st century, we use original and bias-corrected sea surface conditions from RCP8.5 climate projections. We assess the impact of using direct or bias-corrected SSCs for the evolution of Antarctic climate and surface mass balance.
Suzanne L. Bevan, Adrian J. Luckman, Douglas I. Benn, Tom Cowton, and Joe Todd
The Cryosphere, 13, 2303–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2303-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2303-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Kangerlussuaq Glacier in Greenland retreated significantly in the early 2000s and typified the response of calving glaciers to climate change. Satellite images show that it has recently retreated even further. The current retreat follows the appearance of extremely warm surface waters on the continental shelf during the summer of 2016, which likely entered the fjord and caused the rigid mass of sea ice and icebergs, which normally inhibits calving, to melt and break up.
Ward van Pelt, Veijo Pohjola, Rickard Pettersson, Sergey Marchenko, Jack Kohler, Bartłomiej Luks, Jon Ove Hagen, Thomas V. Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Brice Noël, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 13, 2259–2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climate in Svalbard is undergoing amplified change compared to the global mean, which has a strong impact on the climatic mass balance of glaciers and the state of seasonal snow in land areas. In this study we analyze a coupled energy balance–subsurface model dataset, which provides detailed information on distributed climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff across Svalbard between 1957 and 2018.
Andreas Born, Michael A. Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
The Cryosphere, 13, 1529–1546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1529-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new numerical model to simulate the surface energy and mass balance of snow and ice. While similar models exist and cover a wide range of complexity from empirical models to those that simulate the microscopic structure of individual snow grains, we aim to strike a balance between physical completeness and numerical efficiency. This new model will enable physically accurate simulations over timescales of hundreds of millennia, a key requirement of investigating ice age cycles.
Peter J. Irvine, David W. Keith, and John Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 2501–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2501-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2501-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, a form of solar geoengineering, is a proposal to add a reflective layer of aerosol to the upper atmosphere. This would reduce sea level rise by slowing the melting of ice on land and the thermal expansion of the oceans. However, there is considerable uncertainty about its potential efficacy. This article highlights key uncertainties in the sea level response to solar geoengineering and recommends approaches to address these in future work.
Martin Wegmann, Emanuel Dutra, Hans-Werner Jacobi, and Olga Zolina
The Cryosphere, 12, 1887–1898, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1887-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1887-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
An important factor for Earth's climate is the high sunlight reflectivity of snow. By melting, it reveals darker surfaces and sunlight is converted to heat. We investigate how well this process is represented in reanalyses data sets compared to observations over Russia. We found snow processes to be well represented, but reflectivity variability needs to be improved. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of this key climate change feedback process in modelled data.
Marcus Lofverstrom and Johan Liakka
The Cryosphere, 12, 1499–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1499-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1499-2018, 2018
Prisco Frei, Sven Kotlarski, Mark A. Liniger, and Christoph Schär
The Cryosphere, 12, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snowfall is central to Alpine environments, and its future changes will be associated with pronounced impacts. We here assess future snowfall changes in the European Alps based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate model experiments and on two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results reveal pronounced changes in the Alpine snowfall climate with considerable snowfall reductions at low and mid-elevations but also snowfall increases at high elevations in midwinter.
Jingang Zhan, Hongling Shi, Yong Wang, and Yixin Yao
The Cryosphere, 11, 1487–1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1487-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The mass balance change on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the result of interactions between the atmospheric vapor and the surface water resources. We evaluated the spatial characteristics and principal components of mass balance change using CPCA and wavelet analysis. The results reflect the change in four major different atmospheric circulation patterns and their contribution percentages to mass balance. The novelty of the phase information revealed their impact area and travel route in detail.
Ira Leifer, Denis Chernykh, Natalia Shakhova, and Igor Semiletov
The Cryosphere, 11, 1333–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1333-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Vast Arctic methane deposits may alter global climate and require remote sensing (RS) to map. Sonar has great promise, but quantitative inversion based on theory is challenged by multiple bubble acoustical scattering in plumes. We demonstrate use of a real-world in situ bubble plume calibration using a bubble model to correct for differences in the calibration and seep plumes. Spatial seep sonar maps were then used to improve understanding of subsurface geologic controls.
Riccardo E. M. Riva, Thomas Frederikse, Matt A. King, Ben Marzeion, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 1327–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The reduction of ice masses stored on land has made an important contribution to sea-level rise over the last century, as well as changed the Earth's shape. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have varied strongly throughout the last century, which affects the interpretation and extrapolation of recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.
Henning Åkesson, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Rianne H. Giesen, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 11, 281–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-281-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-281-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present simulations of the history of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway using a dynamical ice sheet model. From mid-Holocene ice-free conditions 4000 years ago, Hardangerjøkulen grows nonlinearly in response to a linear climate forcing, reaching maximum extent during the Little Ice Age (~ 1750 AD). The ice cap exhibits spatially asymmetric growth and retreat and is highly sensitive to climate change. Our results call for reassessment of glacier reconstructions from proxy records.
Christopher J. Fogwill, Erik van Sebille, Eva A. Cougnon, Chris S. M. Turney, Steve R. Rintoul, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Graeme F. Clark, E. M. Marzinelli, Eleanor B. Rainsley, and Lionel Carter
The Cryosphere, 10, 2603–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2603-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here we report new data from in situ oceanographic surveys and high-resolution ocean modelling experiments in the Commonwealth Bay region of East Antarctica, where in 2010 there was a major reconfiguration of the regional icescape due to the collision of the 97 km long iceberg B09B with the Mertz Glacier tongue. Here we compare post-calving observations with high-resolution ocean modelling which suggest that this reconfiguration has led to the development of a new polynya off Commonwealth Bay.
Anders Levermann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1799–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. Here we derive the basic equations for the melt elevation feedback that can lead to self-amplifying melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ice sheets in general. The theory unifies the results of complex models when the feedback dominates the dynamics and it allows us to estimate the melt time of ice sheets from data in cases where ice dynamic loss can be neglected.
Franco Salerno, Sudeep Thakuri, Nicolas Guyennon, Gaetano Viviano, and Gianni Tartari
The Cryosphere, 10, 1433–1448, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1433-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1433-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This contribution shows that the surface area variations of unconnected glacial ponds, i.e. ponds not directly connected to glacier ice, can be considered as suitable proxies for detecting past changes in the main hydrological components of the water balance (glacier melt, precipitation, evaporation) on the south side of Mt Everest.
Christiane Meyer, Ulrich Meyer, Andreas Pflitsch, and Valter Maggi
The Cryosphere, 10, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-879-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-879-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the paper a new method to calculate airflow speeds in static ice caves by using air temperature data is presented. As most study sites are in very remote places, where it is often not possible to use sonic anemometers and other devices for the analysis of the cave climate, we show how one can use the given database for calculating airflow speeds. Understanding/quantifying all elements of the specific cave climate is indispensable for understanding the evolution of the ice body in ice caves.
F. Maussion, W. Gurgiser, M. Großhauser, G. Kaser, and B. Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 9, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1663-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a newly developed open-source tool, we downscale the glacier surface energy and mass balance fluxes at Shallap Glacier. This allows an unprecedented quantification of the ENSO influence on a tropical glacier at climatological time scales (1980-2013). We find a stronger and steadier anti-correlation between Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and glacier mass balance than previously reported and provide keys to understand its mechanism.
F. Salerno, N. Guyennon, S. Thakuri, G. Viviano, E. Romano, E. Vuillermoz, P. Cristofanelli, P. Stocchi, G. Agrillo, Y. Ma, and G. Tartari
The Cryosphere, 9, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1229-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1229-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-trends data in Himalaya are completely absent at high elevation. We explore the south slopes of Mt Everest though time series reconstructed from 7 stations (2660-5600m) during 1994-2013. The main increase in temp is concentrated outside of the monsoon, minimum temp increased far more than maximum, while we note a precipitation weakening. We contribute to change the perspective on which climatic drivers (temperature vs. precipitation) led mainly the glacier responses in the last 20 yr.
H. Castebrunet, N. Eckert, G. Giraud, Y. Durand, and S. Morin
The Cryosphere, 8, 1673–1697, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014, 2014
A. A. Marks and M. D. King
The Cryosphere, 8, 1625–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1625-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1625-2014, 2014
S. Gebre, T. Boissy, and K. Alfredsen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1589–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1589-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Drijfhout, S. S., Wouters, B., and Katsman, C. A.: Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion, Nat. Geosci., 6, 376–379, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1767, 2013.
Bromwich, D., Liu, Z., Rogers, A. N., and Van Woert, M. L.: Winter atmospheric forcing of the Ross Sea Polynya, in: Ocean, ICE, Atmos. Interact. Antarct. Cont. MARGIN, vol. 75, 101–133, American Geophysical Union, https://doi.org/10.1029/AR075p0101, 1998.
Brümmer, B. and Hoeber, H.: A mesoscale cyclone over the Fram Strait and its effects on sea ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 19085–19098, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900259, 1999.
Brümmer, B., Schröder, D., Müller, G., Spreen, G., Jahnke-Bornemann, A., and Launiainen, J.: Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C12003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004149, 2008.
Coggins, J., McDonald, A. J., Plank, G., Pannell, M., Jolly, B., Parsons, S., and Delany, T.: SNOW-WEB: a new technology for Antarctic meteorological monitoring, Antarct. Sci., 25, 583–599, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102013000011, 2013.
Coggins, J. H. J., McDonald, A. J., and Jolly, B.: Synoptic climatology of the Ross Ice Shelf and Ross Sea region of Antarctica: k -means clustering and validation, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2330–2348, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3842, 2014.
Comiso, J. C.: Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS, Version 2., Boulder, Color. USA. NASA Natl. Snow Ice Data Cent. Distrib. Act. Arch. Center., https://doi.org/10.5067/J6JQLS9EJ5HU, 2000.
Comiso, J. C. and Nishio, F.: Trends in the sea ice cover using enhanced and compatible AMSR-E, SSM/I, and SMMR data, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02S07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004257, 2008.
Comiso, J. C., Kwok, R., Martin, S., and Gordon, A. L.: Variability and trends in sea ice extent and ice production in the Ross Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C04021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006391, 2011.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Drucker, R., Martin, S., and Kwok, R.: Sea ice production and export from coastal polynyas in the Weddell and Ross Seas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048668, 2011.
Emery, W. J., Fowler, C. W., and Maslanik, J. A.: Satellite-derived maps of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice motion: 1988 to 1994, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 897–900, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL00755, 1997.
Heil, P., Fowler, C., and Lake, S.: Antarctic sea-ice velocity as derived from SSM/I imagery, Ann. Glaciol., 44, 361–366, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756406781811682, 2006.
Holland, P. R.: The seasonality of Antarctic sea ice trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4230–4237, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060172, 2014.
Holland, P. R. and Kwok, R.: Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift, Nat. Geosci., 5, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1627, 2012.
Jolly, B., McDonald, A. J., Coggins, J. H. J., Cassano, J., Lazzara, M., Zawar-Reza, P., Graham, G., Plank, G., Petterson, O., and Dale, E.: A validation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System using Self-Organizing Maps and high density observations from SNOWWEB, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 3181–3200, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0447.1, 2016.
Kwok, R. and Comiso, J. C.: Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 50–1–50–4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015415, 2002.
Kwok, R., Comiso, J. C., Martin, S., and Drucker, R.: Ross Sea polynyas: Response of ice concentration retrievals to large areas of thin ice, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C12012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003967, 2007.
Lazzara, M. A., Weidner, G. A., Keller, L. M., Thom, J. E., and Cassano, J. J.: Antarctic Automatic Weather Station Program: 30 Years of Polar Observation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1519–1537, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00015.1, 2012.
Liu, H., Jezek, K., Li, B., and Zhao., Z.: Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2., Boulder, Color. USA. NASA Natl. Snow Ice Data Cent. Distrib. Act. Arch. Center., 2001.
Mårtensson, S., Meier, H. E. M., Pemberton, P., and Haapala, J.: Ridged sea ice characteristics in the Arctic from a coupled multicategory sea ice model, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 117, C00D15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006936, 2012.
Maslanik, J. and Stroeve, J.: DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Brightness Temperatures, Version 4., Boulder, Colorado USA. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center, https://doi.org/10.5067/AN9AI8EO7PX0, 2004.
Nakata, K., Ohshima, K. I., Nihashi, S., Kimura, N., and Tamura, T.: Variability and ice production budget in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya based on a simplified polynya model and satellite observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 120, 6234–6252, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010894, 2015.
Nicolas, J. P. and Bromwich, D. H.: New Reconstruction of Antarctic Near-Surface Temperatures: Multidecadal Trends and Reliability of Global Reanalyses, J. Climate, 27, 8070–8093, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00733.1, 2014.
Ohshima, K. I., Fukamachi, Y., Williams, G. D., Nihashi, S., Roquet, F., Kitade, Y., Tamura, T., Hirano, D., Herraiz-Borreguero, L., Field, I., Hindell, M., Aoki, S., and Wakatsuchi, M.: Antarctic Bottom Water production by intense sea-ice formation in the Cape Darnley polynya, Nat. Geosci., 6, 235–240, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1738, 2013.
Parish, T. R. and Bromwich, D. H.: Reexamination of the Near-Surface Airflow over the Antarctic Continent and Implications on Atmospheric Circulations at High Southern Latitudes, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 1961–1973, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3374.1, 2007.
Parish, T. R., Cassano, J. J., and Seefeldt, M. W.: Characteristics of the Ross Ice Shelf air stream as depicted in Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006185, 2006.
Powers, J. G., Manning, K. W., Bromwich, D. H., Cassano, J. J., and Cayette, A. M.: A Decade of Antarctic Science Support Through Amps, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1699–1712, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00186.1, 2012.
Reddy, T. E., Arrigo, K. R., and Holland, D. M.: The role of thermal and mechanical processes in the formation of the Ross Sea summer polynya, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C07027, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003874, 2007.
Sen Gupta, A. and England, M. H.: Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Ice Response to Variations in the Southern Annular Mode, J. Climate, 19, 4457–4486, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3843.1, 2006.
Stammerjohn, S. E., Martinson, D. G., Smith, R. C., Yuan, X., and Rind, D.: Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Niño – Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C03S90, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004269, 2008.
Tamura, T., Ohshima, K. I., and Nihashi, S.: Mapping of sea ice production for Antarctic coastal polynyas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032903, 2008.
Turner, J., Comiso, J. C., Marshall, G. J., Lachlan Cope, T. A., Bracegirdle, T., Maksym, T., Meredith, M. P., Wang, Z., and Orr, A.: Non annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037524, 2009.
Turner, J., Hosking, J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., Marshall, G. J., and Phillips, T.: Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 373, 20140163, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0163, 2015.
Whitworth, I. and Orsi, A. H.: Antarctic Bottom Water production and export by tides in the Ross Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026357, 2006.
Short summary
This work studies the affects of strong winds on sea ice within the Ross Sea polynya. We compare both automatic weather station (AWS) and reanalysis wind data with sea ice concentration (SIC) measurements based on satellite images. Due to its low resolution, the reanalysis data were unable to reproduce several relationships found between the AWS and SIC data. We find that the strongest third of wind speeds had the most significant affect on SIC and resulting sea ice production.
This work studies the affects of strong winds on sea ice within the Ross Sea polynya. We compare...
