Articles | Volume 10, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Nov 2016
Research article |
| 09 Nov 2016
Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, DGES, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, DGES, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Sophie Berger
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, DGES, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Reinhard Drews
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, DGES, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Related authors
Lionel Favier, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Adrian Jenkins, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The melting at the base of floating ice shelves is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet current retreat. Here, we use an ideal set-up to assess a wide range of melting parameterisations depending on oceanic properties with regard to a new ocean–ice-sheet coupled model, published here for the first time. A parameterisation that depends quadratically on thermal forcing in both a local and a non-local way yields the best results and needs to be further assessed with more realistic set-ups.
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Varfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the Antarctic climate from 1985 to 2014. Our model is driven using the ERA-5 reanalysis for one simulation and the EC-Earth global climate model for three others. Most of the simulated trends, such as sea ice extent and precipitation over land, have opposite signs for the two drivers, but agree between the three EC-Earth driven simulations. We conclude that these opposing trends must be due to the different drivers, and that the climate over land is less predictable than over sea.
Ole Zeising, Tore Hattermann, Lars Kaleschke, Sophie Berger, Olaf Boebel, Reinhard Drews, M. Reza Ershadi, Tanja Fromm, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2837–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves impacts the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study focuses on the Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using multiyear data from an autonomous radar system. Results show a surprising seasonal pattern of high melt rates in winter and spring. The seasonalities of sea-ice growth and ocean density indicate that, in winter, dense water enhances plume activity and melt rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving future mass balance projections.
Christian T. Wild, Reinhard Drews, Niklas Neckel, Joohan Lee, Sihyung Kim, Hyangsun Han, Won Sang Lee, Veit Helm, Sebastian Harry Reid Rosier, Oliver J. Marsh, and Wolfgang Rack
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3593, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet depends on how resistance along the sides of large glaciers slows down the flow of ice into the ocean. We present a method to map ice strength using the effect of ocean tides on floating ice shelves. Incorporating weaker ice in shear zones improves the accuracy of model predictions compared to satellite observations. This demonstrates the untapped potential of radar satellites to map ice stiffness in the most critical areas for ice sheet stability.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Yanjun Li, Violaine Coulon, Javier Blasco, Gang Qiao, Qinghua Yang, and Frank Pattyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2916, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We incorporate ice damage processes into an ice-sheet model and apply the new model to Thwaites Glacier. The upgraded model more accurately captures the observed ice geometry and mass balance of Thwaites Glacier over 1990–2020. Our simulations show that ice damage has a notable impact on the ice sheet evolution, ice mass loss and the resulted sea-level rise. This study highlights the necessity for incorporating ice damage into ice-sheet models.
Robert G. Bingham, Julien A. Bodart, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Ailsa Chung, Rebecca J. Sanderson, Johannes C. R. Sutter, Olaf Eisen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Joseph A. MacGregor, Neil Ross, Duncan A. Young, David W. Ashmore, Andreas Born, Winnie Chu, Xiangbin Cui, Reinhard Drews, Steven Franke, Vikram Goel, John W. Goodge, A. Clara J. Henry, Antoine Hermant, Benjamin H. Hills, Nicholas Holschuh, Michelle R. Koutnik, Gwendolyn J.-M. C. Leysinger Vieli, Emma J. Mackie, Elisa Mantelli, Carlos Martín, Felix S. L. Ng, Falk M. Oraschewski, Felipe Napoleoni, Frédéric Parrenin, Sergey V. Popov, Therese Rieckh, Rebecca Schlegel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Xueyuan Tang, Thomas O. Teisberg, Kate Winter, Shuai Yan, Harry Davis, Christine F. Dow, Tyler J. Fudge, Tom A. Jordan, Bernd Kulessa, Kenichi Matsuoka, Clara J. Nyqvist, Maryam Rahnemoonfar, Matthew R. Siegfried, Shivangini Singh, Verjan Višnjević, Rodrigo Zamora, and Alexandra Zuhr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2593, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ice sheets covering Antarctica have built up over millenia through successive snowfall events which become buried and preserved as internal surfaces of equal age detectable with ice-penetrating radar. This paper describes an international initiative to work together on this archival data to build a comprehensive 3-D picture of how old the ice is everywhere across Antarctica, and how this will be used to reconstruct past and predict future ice and climate behaviour.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 20, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. For this, we use data from the PlioMIP2 ensemble. Additionally, we investigate various sources of uncertainty, like ice dynamics and bedrock configuration. Our research significantly enhances our comprehension of Antarctica's response to a warming climate, shedding light on potential future tipping points that may be surpassed.
Falk M. Oraschewski, Inka Koch, M. Reza Ershadi, Jonathan D. Hawkins, Olaf Eisen, and Reinhard Drews
The Cryosphere, 18, 3875–3889, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain glaciers have a layered structure which contains information about past snow accumulation and ice flow. Using ground-penetrating radar instruments, the internal structure can be observed. The detection of layers in the deeper parts of a glacier is often difficult. Here, we present a new approach for imaging the englacial structure of an Alpine glacier (Colle Gnifetti, Switzerland and Italy) using a phase-sensitive radar that can detect reflection depth changes at sub-wavelength scales.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, Mana Inoue, Saïda El Amri, Sainan Sun, François Fripiat, Philippe Claeys, and Frank Pattyn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 35–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The datasets presented are the density, water isotopes, ions, and conductivity measurements, as well as age models and surface mass balance (SMB) from the top 120 m of two ice cores drilled on adjacent ice rises in Dronning Maud Land, dating from the late 18th century. They offer many development possibilities for the interpretation of paleo-profiles and for addressing the mechanisms behind the spatial and temporal variability of SMB and proxies observed at the regional scale in East Antarctica.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Vjeran Višnjević, Reinhard Drews, Clemens Schannwell, Inka Koch, Steven Franke, Daniela Jansen, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 16, 4763–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4763-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a simple way to model the internal layers of an ice shelf and apply the method to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. Modeled results are compared to measurements obtained by radar. We distinguish between ice directly formed on the shelf and ice transported from the ice sheet, and we map the spatial changes in the volume of the locally accumulated ice. In this context, we discuss the sensitivity of the ice shelf to future changes in surface accumulation and basal melt.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
A. Clara J. Henry, Reinhard Drews, Clemens Schannwell, and Vjeran Višnjević
The Cryosphere, 16, 3889–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a 3D, idealised model to study features in coastal Antarctica called ice rises and ice rumples. These features regulate the rate of ice flow into the ocean. We show that when sea level is raised or lowered, the size of these features and the ice flow pattern can change. We find that the features depend on the ice history and do not necessarily fully recover after an equal increase and decrease in sea level. This shows that it is important to initialise models with accurate ice geometry.
Astrid Oetting, Emma C. Smith, Jan Erik Arndt, Boris Dorschel, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Christoph Gaedicke, Coen Hofstede, Johann P. Klages, Gerhard Kuhn, Astrid Lambrecht, Andreas Läufer, Christoph Mayer, Ralf Tiedemann, Frank Wilhelms, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 16, 2051–2066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2051-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2051-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines a variety of geophysical measurements in front of and beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf in order to identify and interpret geomorphological evidences of past ice sheet flow, extent and retreat.
The maximal extent of grounded ice in this region was 11 km away from the continental shelf break.
The thickness of palaeo-ice on the calving front around the LGM was estimated to be at least 305 to 320 m.
We provide essential boundary conditions for palaeo-ice-sheet models.
M. Reza Ershadi, Reinhard Drews, Carlos Martín, Olaf Eisen, Catherine Ritz, Hugh Corr, Julia Christmann, Ole Zeising, Angelika Humbert, and Robert Mulvaney
The Cryosphere, 16, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1719-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1719-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Radio waves transmitted through ice split up and inform us about the ice sheet interior and orientation of single ice crystals. This can be used to infer how ice flows and improve projections on how it will evolve in the future. Here we used an inverse approach and developed a new algorithm to infer ice properties from observed radar data. We applied this technique to the radar data obtained at two EPICA drilling sites, where ice cores were used to validate our results.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Mirjam Schaller, Igor Dal Bo, Todd A. Ehlers, Anja Klotzsche, Reinhard Drews, Juan Pablo Fuentes Espoz, and Jan van der Kruk
SOIL, 6, 629–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-629-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-629-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study geophysical observations from ground-penetrating radar with pedolith physical and geochemical properties from pedons excavated in four study areas of the climate and ecological gradient in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera are combined. Findings suggest that profiles with ground-penetrating radar along hillslopes can be used to infer lateral thickness variations in pedolith horizons and to some degree physical and chemical variations with depth.
Clemens Schannwell, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Olaf Eisen, Christoph Mayer, Mika Malinen, Emma C. Smith, and Hannes Eisermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3917–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To reduce uncertainties associated with sea level rise projections, an accurate representation of ice flow is paramount. Most ice sheet models rely on simplified versions of the underlying ice flow equations. Due to the high computational costs, ice sheet models based on the complete ice flow equations have been restricted to < 1000 years. Here, we present a new model setup that extends the applicability of such models by an order of magnitude, permitting simulations of 40 000 years.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Clemens Schannwell, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Olaf Eisen, Christoph Mayer, and Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
The Cryosphere, 13, 2673–2691, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2673-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2673-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Ice rises are important ice-sheet features that archive the ice sheet's history in their internal structure. Here we use a 3-D numerical ice-sheet model to simulate mechanisms that lead to changes in the geometry of the internal structure. We find that changes in snowfall result in much larger and faster changes than similar changes in ice-shelf geometry. This result is integral to fully unlocking the potential of ice rises as ice-dynamic archives and potential ice-core drilling sites.
Lionel Favier, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Adrian Jenkins, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The melting at the base of floating ice shelves is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet current retreat. Here, we use an ideal set-up to assess a wide range of melting parameterisations depending on oceanic properties with regard to a new ocean–ice-sheet coupled model, published here for the first time. A parameterisation that depends quadratically on thermal forcing in both a local and a non-local way yields the best results and needs to be further assessed with more realistic set-ups.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Kevin Bulthuis, Maarten Arnst, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.
Brice Van Liefferinge, Frank Pattyn, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Nanna B. Karlsson, Duncan A. Young, Johannes Sutter, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 2773–2787, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2773-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2773-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an important review of the state of knowledge for oldest-ice prospection, but also adds new basal geothermal heat flux constraints from recently acquired high-definition radar data sets. This is the first paper to contrast the two primary target regions for oldest ice: Dome C and Dome Fuji. Moreover, we provide statistical comparisons of all available data sets and a summary of the community's criteria for the retrieval of interpretable oldest ice since the 2013 effort.
Nanna B. Karlsson, Tobias Binder, Graeme Eagles, Veit Helm, Frank Pattyn, Brice Van Liefferinge, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 2413–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2413-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate the probability that the Dome Fuji region in East Antarctica contains ice more than 1.5 Ma old. The retrieval of a continuous ice-core record extending beyond 1 Ma is imperative to understand why the frequency of ice ages changed from 40 to 100 ka approximately 1 Ma ago.
We use a new radar dataset to improve the ice thickness maps, and apply a thermokinematic model to predict basal temperature and age of the ice. Our results indicate several areas of interest.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Sophie Berger, Reinhard Drews, Veit Helm, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 11, 2675–2690, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2675-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2675-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves act as a plug for the Antarctic ice sheet. The efficiency of this ice plug depends on how and how much the ocean melts the ice from below. This study relies on satellite imagery and a Lagrangian approach to map in detail the basal mass balance of an Antarctic ice shelf. Although the large-scale melting pattern of the ice shelf agrees with previous studies, our technique successfully detects local variability (< 1 km) in the basal melting of the ice shelf.
Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 11, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Marine Ice Sheet Instability is a mechanism that can potentially lead to collapse of marine sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet and floating ice shelves play a crucial role herein. Improved grounding line physics (interaction with subglacial sediment) are implemented in a new ice-sheet model and compared to traditional sliding laws. Ice shelf collapse leads to a significant higher sea-level contribution (up to 15 m in 500 years) compared to traditional grounding-line approaches.
Morgane Philippe, Jean-Louis Tison, Karen Fjøsne, Bryn Hubbard, Helle A. Kjær, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Reinhard Drews, Simon G. Sheldon, Kevin De Bondt, Philippe Claeys, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 10, 2501–2516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The reconstruction of past snow accumulation rates is crucial in the context of recent climate change and sea level rise. We measured ~ 250 years of snow accumulation using a 120 m ice core drilled in coastal East Antarctica, where such long records are very scarce. This study is the first to show an increase in snow accumulation, beginning in the 20th and particularly marked in the last 50 years, thereby confirming model predictions of increased snowfall associated with climate change.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
Reinhard Drews, Joel Brown, Kenichi Matsuoka, Emmanuel Witrant, Morgane Philippe, Bryn Hubbard, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 10, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-811-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The thickness of ice shelves is typically inferred using hydrostatic equilibrium which requires knowledge of the firn density. Here, we infer density from wide-angle radar using a novel algorithm including traveltime inversion and ray tracing. We find that firn is denser inside a 2 km wide ice-shelf channel which is confirmed by optical televiewing of two boreholes. Such horizontal density variations must be accounted for when using the hydrostatic ice thickness for determining basal melt rate.
G. Durand and F. Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 9, 2043–2055, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Projections of Antarctic dynamics and contribution to sea-level rise are evaluated in the light of intercomparison exercises dedicated to evaluate models' ability of representing coastal changes. Uncertainties in projections can be substantially decreased if a selection of models is made and models that are unqualified for the representation of coastal dynamics are excluded.
R. Drews
The Cryosphere, 9, 1169–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1169-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1169-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves extend the continental ice of Antarctica seawards and mediate ice-ocean interactions. Many ice shelves are incised with channels where basal melting is enhanced. With data and modeling it is shown how the channel geometry depends on basal melting and along-flow advection (also for channels which are not freely floating), and how channel formation imprints the general flow pattern. This opens up the opportunity to map the channel formation from surface velocities only.
D. Callens, K. Matsuoka, D. Steinhage, B. Smith, E. Witrant, and F. Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 8, 867–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-867-2014, 2014
D. Di Nitto, G. Neukermans, N. Koedam, H. Defever, F. Pattyn, J. G. Kairo, and F. Dahdouh-Guebas
Biogeosciences, 11, 857–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-857-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-857-2014, 2014
M. Thoma, K. Grosfeld, D. Barbi, J. Determann, S. Goeller, C. Mayer, and F. Pattyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1-2014, 2014
H. Fischer, J. Severinghaus, E. Brook, E. Wolff, M. Albert, O. Alemany, R. Arthern, C. Bentley, D. Blankenship, J. Chappellaz, T. Creyts, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Dinn, M. Frezzotti, S. Fujita, H. Gallee, R. Hindmarsh, D. Hudspeth, G. Jugie, K. Kawamura, V. Lipenkov, H. Miller, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, F. Pattyn, C. Ritz, J. Schwander, D. Steinhage, T. van Ommen, and F. Wilhelms
Clim. Past, 9, 2489–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, 2013
B. Van Liefferinge and F. Pattyn
Clim. Past, 9, 2335–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2335-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2335-2013, 2013
A. S. Drouet, D. Docquier, G. Durand, R. Hindmarsh, F. Pattyn, O. Gagliardini, and T. Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 7, 395–406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Ice Sheets
Brief Communication: Enabling Open Cryosphere Research with Ghub
Spatiotemporal patterns of accumulation and surface roughness in interior Greenland with a GNSS-IR network
The influence of firn layer material properties on surface crevasse propagation in glaciers and ice shelves
Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt
Retrieval and Validation of Total Seasonal Liquid Water Amounts in the Percolation Zone of Greenland Ice Sheet Using L-band Radiometry
Reconstructing dynamics of the Baltic Ice Stream Complex during deglaciation of the Last Scandinavian Ice Sheet
Assessing the potential for ice flow piracy between the Totten and Vanderford glaciers, East Antarctica
Stagnant ice and age modelling in the Dome C region, Antarctica
Polar firn properties in Greenland and Antarctica and related effects on microwave brightness temperatures
A model of the weathering crust and microbial activity on an ice-sheet surface
PISM-LakeCC: Implementing an adaptive proglacial lake boundary in an ice sheet model
Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections
Brief communication: On calculating the sea-level contribution in marine ice-sheet models
A simple stress-based cliff-calving law
Scaling of instability timescales of Antarctic outlet glaciers based on one-dimensional similitude analysis
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers
Modelled fracture and calving on the Totten Ice Shelf
Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison
Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years
Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium
ice sheet volume
GPS-derived estimates of surface mass balance and ocean-induced basal melt for Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, Antarctica
Analysis of ice shelf flexure and its InSAR representation in the grounding zone of the southern McMurdo Ice Shelf
Boundary layer models for calving marine outlet glaciers
Liquid water content in ice estimated through a full-depth ground radar profile and borehole measurements in western Greenland
Persistence and variability of ice-stream grounding lines on retrograde bed slopes
Similitude of ice dynamics against scaling of geometry and physical parameters
An ice-sheet-wide framework for englacial attenuation from ice-penetrating radar data
Inversion of geothermal heat flux in a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model
The influence of a model subglacial lake on ice dynamics and internal layering
Sheet, stream, and shelf flow as progressive ice-bed uncoupling: Byrd Glacier, Antarctica and Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland
SeaRISE experiments revisited: potential sources of spread in multi-model projections of the Greenland ice sheet
Elevation change of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface mass balance and firn processes, 1960–2014
Ice sheet mass loss caused by dust and black carbon accumulation
Temporal variations in the flow of a large Antarctic ice stream controlled by tidally induced changes in the subglacial water system
Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves
Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning
How do icebergs affect the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial conditions? – a model study with a fully coupled ice-sheet–climate model
Seismic wave propagation in anisotropic ice – Part 1: Elasticity tensor and derived quantities from ice-core properties
Seismic wave propagation in anisotropic ice – Part 2: Effects of crystal anisotropy in geophysical data
Simulating the Greenland ice sheet under present-day and palaeo constraints including a new discharge parameterization
Elevation and elevation change of Greenland and Antarctica derived from CryoSat-2
The importance of insolation changes for paleo ice sheet modeling
Parameterization of basal friction near grounding lines in a one-dimensional ice sheet model
A range correction for ICESat and its potential impact on ice-sheet mass balance studies
Brief Communication: Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ
Creep deformation and buttressing capacity of damaged ice shelves: theory and application to Larsen C ice shelf
Scatter of mass changes estimates at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica
Influence of ice-sheet geometry and supraglacial lakes on seasonal ice-flow variability
Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states
Surface undulations of Antarctic ice streams tightly controlled by bedrock topography
Joseph P. Tulenko, Sophie A. Goliber, Renette Jones-Ivey, Justin Quinn, Abani Patra, Kristin Poinar, Sophie Nowicki, Beata M. Csatho, and Jason P. Briner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-894, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ghub is an online platform that hosts tools, datasets and educational resources related to ice sheet science. These resources are provided by ice sheet researchers and allow other researchers, students, educators, and interested members of the general public to analyze, visualize and download datasets that researchers use to study past and present ice sheet behavior. We describe how users can interact with Ghub, showcase some available resources, and describe the future of the Ghub Project.
Derek J. Pickell, Robert L. Hawley, and Adam LeWinter
The Cryosphere, 19, 1013–1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use a low-cost, low-power GNSS network to measure surface accumulation in Greenland's interior using the interferometric reflectometry technique. Additionally, we extend this method to also estimate centimeter- to meter-scale surface roughness. Our results closely align with a validation record and highlight a period of unusually high accumulation from late 2022 to 2023, along with seasonal variations in surface roughness.
Theo Clayton, Ravindra Duddu, Tim Hageman, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 5573–5593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and validate new analytical solutions that quantitatively consider how the properties of ice vary along the depth of ice shelves and that can be readily used in existing ice sheet models. Depth-varying firn properties are found to have a profound impact on ice sheet fracture and calving events. Our results show that grounded glaciers are less vulnerable than previously anticipated, while floating ice shelves are significantly more vulnerable to fracture and calving.
Sanket Jantre, Matthew J. Hoffman, Nathan M. Urban, Trevor Hillebrand, Mauro Perego, Stephen Price, and John D. Jakeman
The Cryosphere, 18, 5207–5238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate potential sea-level rise from Antarctica's Lambert Glacier, once considered stable but now at risk due to projected ocean warming by 2100. Using statistical methods and limited supercomputer simulations, we calibrated our ice-sheet model using three observables. We find that, under high greenhouse gas emissions, glacier retreat could raise sea levels by 46–133 mm by 2300. This study highlights the need for better observations to reduce uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Shawn Marshall, and Julie Z. Miller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2563, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We used L-band observations from the SMAP mission to quantify the surface and subsurface liquid water amounts (LWA) in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. The algorithm is described, and the validation results are provided. The results demonstrate the potential for creating an LWA data product across GrIS, which will advance our understanding of ice sheet physical processes for better projection of Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise.
Izabela Szuman, Jakub Z. Kalita, Christiaan R. Diemont, Stephen J. Livingstone, Chris D. Clark, and Martin Margold
The Cryosphere, 18, 2407–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2407-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2407-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A Baltic-wide glacial landform-based map is presented, filling in a geographical gap in the record that has been speculated about by palaeoglaciologists for over a century. Here we used newly available bathymetric data and provide landform evidence of corridors of fast ice flow that we interpret as ice streams. Where previous ice-sheet-scale investigations inferred a single ice source, our mapping identifies flow and ice margin geometries from both Swedish and Bothnian sources.
Felicity S. McCormack, Jason L. Roberts, Bernd Kulessa, Alan Aitken, Christine F. Dow, Lawrence Bird, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Katharina Hochmuth, Richard S. Jones, Andrew N. Mackintosh, and Koi McArthur
The Cryosphere, 17, 4549–4569, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in Antarctic surface elevation can cause changes in ice and basal water flow, impacting how much ice enters the ocean. We find that ice and basal water flow could divert from the Totten to the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, under only small changes in the surface elevation, with implications for estimates of ice loss from this region. Further studies are needed to determine when this could occur and if similar diversions could occur elsewhere in Antarctica due to climate change.
Ailsa Chung, Frédéric Parrenin, Daniel Steinhage, Robert Mulvaney, Carlos Martín, Marie G. P. Cavitte, David A. Lilien, Veit Helm, Drew Taylor, Prasad Gogineni, Catherine Ritz, Massimo Frezzotti, Charles O'Neill, Heinrich Miller, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 17, 3461–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We combined a numerical model with radar measurements in order to determine the age of ice in the Dome C region of Antarctica. Our results show that at the current ice core drilling sites on Little Dome C, the maximum age of the ice is almost 1.5 Ma. We also highlight a new potential drill site called North Patch with ice up to 2 Ma. Finally, we explore the nature of a stagnant ice layer at the base of the ice sheet which has been independently observed and modelled but is not well understood.
Haokui Xu, Brooke Medley, Leung Tsang, Joel T. Johnson, Kenneth C. Jezek, Marco Brogioni, and Lars Kaleschke
The Cryosphere, 17, 2793–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2793-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The density profile of polar ice sheets is a major unknown in estimating the mass loss using lidar tomography methods. In this paper, we show that combing the active radar data and passive radiometer data can provide an estimation of density properties using the new model we implemented in this paper. The new model includes the short and long timescale variations in the firn and also the refrozen layers which are not included in the previous modeling work.
Tilly Woods and Ian J. Hewitt
The Cryosphere, 17, 1967–1987, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar radiation causes melting at and just below the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, forming a porous surface layer known as the weathering crust. The weathering crust is home to many microbes, and the growth of these microbes is linked to the melting of the weathering crust and vice versa. We use a mathematical model to investigate what controls the size and structure of the weathering crust, the number of microbes within it, and its sensitivity to climate change.
Sebastian Hinck, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Proglacial lakes were pervasive along the retreating continental ice margins after the Last Glacial Maximum. Similarly to the marine ice boundary, interactions at the ice-lake interface impact ice sheet dynamics and mass balance. Previous numerical ice sheet modeling studies did not include a dynamical lake boundary. We describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary condition in PISM and apply the model to the glacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Tanja Schlemm and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2475-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2475-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a simple stress-based parameterization for cliff calving of ice sheets. According to the resulting increasing dependence of the calving rate on ice thickness, the parameterization might lead to a runaway ice loss in large parts of Greenland and Antarctica.
Anders Levermann and Johannes Feldmann
The Cryosphere, 13, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using scaling analysis we propose that the currently observed marine ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector might be faster than all other potential instabilities in Antarctica.
Veronika Emetc, Paul Tregoning, Mathieu Morlighem, Chris Borstad, and Malcolm Sambridge
The Cryosphere, 12, 3187–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper includes a model that can be used to predict zones of fracture formation in both floating and grounded ice in Antarctica. We used observations and a statistics-based model to predict fractures in most ice shelves in Antarctica as an alternative to the damage-based approach. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84% for grounded ice and 61% for floating ice and mean overestimation error of 26% and 20%, respectively.
Sue Cook, Jan Åström, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Jamin Stevens Greenbaum, and Richard Coleman
The Cryosphere, 12, 2401–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2401-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2401-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The growth of fractures on Antarctic ice shelves is important because it controls the amount of ice lost as icebergs. We use a model constructed of multiple interconnected blocks to predict the locations where fractures will form on the Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. The results show that iceberg calving is controlled not only by fractures forming near the front of the ice shelf but also by fractures which formed many kilometres upstream.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Alex S. Gardner, Geir Moholdt, Ted Scambos, Mark Fahnstock, Stefan Ligtenberg, Michiel van den Broeke, and Johan Nilsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We map present-day Antarctic surface velocities from Landsat imagery and compare to earlier estimates from radar. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 89 % of the observed increase in ice discharge. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic have been remarkably stable. Our work suggests that patterns of mass loss are part of a longer-term phase of enhanced flow.
ice sheet volume
Troels Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Aslak Grinsted, and Peter Ditlevsen
The Cryosphere, 12, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-39-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-39-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric temperature increase poses a real risk of ice sheets collapsing. We show that this risk might have been underestimated since variations in temperature will move the ice sheets to the tipping point of destabilization.
We show this by using a simple computer model of a large ice sheet and investigate what happens if the temperature varies from year to year. The total volume of the ice sheet decreases because a cold year followed by an equally warm year do not cancel out.
David E. Shean, Knut Christianson, Kristine M. Larson, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Ian R. Joughin, Ben E. Smith, C. Max Stevens, Mitchell Bushuk, and David M. Holland
The Cryosphere, 11, 2655–2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2655-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2655-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used long-term GPS data and interferometric reflectometry (GPS-IR) to measure velocity, strain rate and surface elevation for the PIG ice shelf – a site of significant mass loss in recent decades. We combined these observations with high-res DEMs and firn model output to constrain surface mass balance and basal melt rates. We document notable spatial variability in basal melt rates but limited temporal variability from 2012 to 2014 despite significant changes in sub-shelf ocean heat content.
Wolfgang Rack, Matt A. King, Oliver J. Marsh, Christian T. Wild, and Dana Floricioiu
The Cryosphere, 11, 2481–2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2481-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2481-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet involves fully understanding ice dynamics at the transition between grounded and floating ice. We map tidal bending of ice by satellite using InSAR, and we use precise GPS measurements with assumptions of tidal elastic bending to better interpret the satellite signal. It allows us to better define the grounding-line position and to refine the shape of tidal flexure profiles.
Christian Schoof, Andrew D. Davis, and Tiberiu V. Popa
The Cryosphere, 11, 2283–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2283-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2283-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We show mathematically and computationally how discharge of ice from ocean-terminating glaciers is controlled by a combination of different forces acting on ice near the grounding line of a glacier and how that combination of forces is affected by the process of iceberg formation, which limits the length of floating ice tongues extending in front of the glacier. We show that a deeper fjord may lead to a longer ice tongue providing greater drag on the glacier, slowing the rate of ice discharge.
Joel Brown, Joel Harper, and Neil Humphrey
The Cryosphere, 11, 669–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-669-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-669-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use ground-penetrating radar surveys in conjunction with borehole depth and temperature data to estimate the liquid water content (wetness) of glacial ice in the ablation zone of an outlet glacier on the western side of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Our results show that the wetness of a warm basal ice layer is approximately 2.9 % to 4.6 % in our study region. This high level of wetness requires special attention when modelling ice dynamics or estimating ice thickness in the region.
Alexander A. Robel, Christian Schoof, and Eli Tziperman
The Cryosphere, 10, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet edge that rest on upward-sloping beds have the potential to collapse irreversibly and raise global sea level. Using a numerical model, we show that changes in the slipperiness of sediments beneath fast-flowing ice streams can cause them to persist on upward-sloping beds for hundreds to thousands of years before reversing direction. This type of behavior is important to consider as a possibility when interpreting observations of ongoing ice sheet change.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1753–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, 2016
T. M. Jordan, J. L. Bamber, C. N. Williams, J. D. Paden, M. J. Siegert, P. Huybrechts, O. Gagliardini, and F. Gillet-Chaulet
The Cryosphere, 10, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Ice penetrating radar enables determination of the basal properties of ice sheets. Existing algorithms assume stationarity in the attenuation rate, which is not justifiable at an ice sheet scale. We introduce the first ice-sheet-wide algorithm for radar attenuation that incorporates spatial variability, using the temperature field from a numerical model as an initial guess. The study is a step toward ice-sheet-wide data products for basal properties and evaluation of model temperature fields.
Hongyu Zhu, Noemi Petra, Georg Stadler, Tobin Isaac, Thomas J. R. Hughes, and Omar Ghattas
The Cryosphere, 10, 1477–1494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1477-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We study how well the basal geothermal heat flux can be inferred from surface velocity observations using a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model. The prospects and limitations of this inversion is studied in two and three dimensional model problems. We also argue that a one-way coupled approach for the adjoint equations motivated by staggered solvers for forward multiphysics problems can lead to an incorrect gradient and premature termination of the optimization iteration.
Eythor Gudlaugsson, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Jack Kohler, and Karin Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 10, 751–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-751-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-751-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the influence of a subglacial lake on ice dynamics and internal layers by means of numerical modelling as well as simulating the effect of a subglacial drainage event on isochrones. We provide an explanation for characteristic dip and ridge features found at the edges of many subglacial lakes and conclude that draining lakes can result in travelling waves at depth within isochrones, thus indicating the possibility of detecting past drainage events with ice penetrating radar.
T. Hughes, A. Sargent, J. Fastook, K. Purdon, J. Li, J.-B. Yan, and S. Gogineni
The Cryosphere, 10, 193–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-193-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-193-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are drained primarily by fast ice streams that end as ice shelves if they become afloat. Smooth transitions from slow sheet flow to fast stream flow to confined shelf flow are obtained and applied to Byrd Glacier in Antarctica after two upstream subglacial lakes suddenly drained in 2006, and to Jakobshavn Isbrae in Greenland after a confined ice shelf suddenly disintegrated in 2002. Byrd Glacier quickly stabilized, but Jakobshavn Isbrae remains unstable.
F. Saito, A. Abe-Ouchi, K. Takahashi, and H. Blatter
The Cryosphere, 10, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-43-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-43-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This article, as the title denotes, is a follow-up study of an ice-sheet intercomparison project SeaRISE, which focuses on the response of the Greenland ice sheet to future global warming. The projections of the different SeaRISE prticipants show diversion, which has not been examined in detail to date. This study detects the main sources of the diversion by a number of sensitivity experiments and shows the importance of initialization methods as well as climate forcing methods.
P. Kuipers Munneke, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, B. P. Y. Noël, I. M. Howat, J. E. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, J. R. McConnell, K. Steffen, J. T. Harper, S. B. Das, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The snow layer on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing: it is thickening in the high and cold interior due to increased snowfall, while it is thinning around the margins. The marginal thinning is caused by compaction, and by more melt.
This knowledge is important: there are satellites that measure volume change of the ice sheet. It can be caused by increased ice discharge, or by compaction of the snow layer. Here, we quantify the latter, so that we can translate volume to mass change.
T. Goelles, C. E. Bøggild, and R. Greve
The Cryosphere, 9, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1845-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1845-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Soot (black carbon) and dust particles darken the surface of ice sheets and glaciers as they accumulate. This causes more ice to melt, which releases more particles from within the ice. This positive feedback mechanism is studied with a new two-dimensional model, mimicking the conditions of Greenland, under different climate warming scenarios. In the warmest scenario, the additional ice sheet mass loss until the year 3000 is up to 7%.
S. H. R. Rosier, G. H. Gudmundsson, and J. A. M. Green
The Cryosphere, 9, 1649–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1649-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1649-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We use a full-Stokes model to investigate the long period modulation of Rutford Ice Stream flow by the ocean tide. We find that using a nonlinear sliding law cannot fully explain the measurements and an additional mechanism, whereby tidally induced subglacial pressure variations are transmitted upstream from the grounding line, is also required to match the large amplitude and decay length scale of the observations.
R. Drews
The Cryosphere, 9, 1169–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1169-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1169-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves extend the continental ice of Antarctica seawards and mediate ice-ocean interactions. Many ice shelves are incised with channels where basal melting is enhanced. With data and modeling it is shown how the channel geometry depends on basal melting and along-flow advection (also for channels which are not freely floating), and how channel formation imprints the general flow pattern. This opens up the opportunity to map the channel formation from surface velocities only.
P. R. Holland, A. Brisbourne, H. F. J. Corr, D. McGrath, K. Purdon, J. Paden, H. A. Fricker, F. S. Paolo, and A. H. Fleming
The Cryosphere, 9, 1005–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1005-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1005-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have collapsed in recent decades. The surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf is lowering, but the cause of this has not been understood. This study uses eight radar surveys to show that the lowering is caused by both ice loss and a loss of air from the ice shelf's snowpack. At least two different processes are causing the lowering. The stability of Larsen C may be at risk from an ungrounding of Bawden Ice Rise or ice-front retreat past a 'compressive arch' in strain rates.
M. Bügelmayer, D. M. Roche, and H. Renssen
The Cryosphere, 9, 821–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-821-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-821-2015, 2015
A. Diez and O. Eisen
The Cryosphere, 9, 367–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-367-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-367-2015, 2015
A. Diez, O. Eisen, C. Hofstede, A. Lambrecht, C. Mayer, H. Miller, D. Steinhage, T. Binder, and I. Weikusat
The Cryosphere, 9, 385–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-385-2015, 2015
R. Calov, A. Robinson, M. Perrette, and A. Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Ice discharge into the ocean from outlet glaciers is an important
component of mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Here, we present a
simple parameterization of ice discharge for coarse resolution ice
sheet models, suitable for large ensembles or long-term palaeo
simulations. This parameterization reproduces in a good approximation
the present-day ice discharge compared with estimates, and the
simulation of the present-day ice sheet elevation is considerably
improved.
V. Helm, A. Humbert, and H. Miller
The Cryosphere, 8, 1539–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1539-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1539-2014, 2014
A. Robinson and H. Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 8, 1419–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, 2014
G. R. Leguy, X. S. Asay-Davis, and W. H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 8, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, 2014
A. A. Borsa, G. Moholdt, H. A. Fricker, and K. M. Brunt
The Cryosphere, 8, 345–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-345-2014, 2014
I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, D. E. Shean, and D. Floricioiu
The Cryosphere, 8, 209–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-209-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-209-2014, 2014
C. P. Borstad, E. Rignot, J. Mouginot, and M. P. Schodlok
The Cryosphere, 7, 1931–1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1931-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1931-2013, 2013
V. R. Barletta, L. S. Sørensen, and R. Forsberg
The Cryosphere, 7, 1411–1432, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1411-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1411-2013, 2013
I. Joughin, S. B. Das, G. E. Flowers, M. D. Behn, R. B. Alley, M. A. King, B. E. Smith, J. L. Bamber, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. H. van Angelen
The Cryosphere, 7, 1185–1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, 2013
A. Aschwanden, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, and C. Khroulev
The Cryosphere, 7, 1083–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, 2013
J. De Rydt, G. H. Gudmundsson, H. F. J. Corr, and P. Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 7, 407–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-407-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-407-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Arthern, R. J., Winebrenner, D. P., and Vaughan, D. G.: Antarctic snow accumulation mapped using polarization of 4.3-cm wavelength microwave emission, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005667, 2006.
Arthern, R. J., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., and Williams, C. R.: Flow speed within the Antarctic ice sheet and its controls inferred from satellite observations., J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 120, 1171–1188, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JF003239, 2015.
Beckmann, A. and Goosse, H.: A parameterization of ice shelf-ocean interaction for climate models, Ocean Model., 5, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00019-7, 2003.
Berger, S., Favier, L., Drews, R., Derwael, J.-J., and Pattyn, F.: The control of an uncharted pinning point on the flow of an Antarctic ice shelf, J. Glaciol., 62, 37–45, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.7, 2016.
Borstad, C. P., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Schodlok, M. P.: Creep deformation and buttressing capacity of damaged ice shelves: theory and application to Larsen C ice shelf, The Cryosphere, 7, 1931–1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1931-2013, 2013.
Callens, D., Matsuoka, K., Steinhage, D., Smith, B., Witrant, E., and Pattyn, F.: Transition of flow regime along a marine-terminating outlet glacier in East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 8, 867–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-867-2014, 2014.
Callens, D., Thonnard, N., Lenaerts, J. T., Van Wessem, J. M., Van De Berg, W. J., Matsuoka, K., and Pattyn, F.: Mass balance of the Sør Rondane glacial system, East Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 56, 63–69, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A010, 2015.
Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., Payne, A. J., Ng, E. G., Le Brocq, A. M., Gladstone, R. M., Edwards, T. L., Shannon, S. R., Agosta, C., van den Broeke, M. R., Hellmer, H. H., Krinner, G., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Timmermann, R., and Vaughan, D. G.: Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate, The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015.
Deconto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016.
Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12567, 2013.
De Rydt, J. and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Coupled ice shelf-ocean modeling and complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 865–880, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JF003791, 2016.
Drews, R.: Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 9, 1169–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1169-2015, 2015.
Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., de Fleurian, B., Zwinger, T., and Le Meur, E.: Marine ice sheet dynamics: Hysteresis and neutral equilibrium, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, F03009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001170, 2009.
Favier, L. and Pattyn, F.: Antarctic ice rise formation , evolution , and stability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4456–4463, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064195, 2015.
Favier, L., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., and Zwinger, T.: A three-dimensional full Stokes model of the grounding line dynamics: effect of a pinning point beneath the ice shelf, The Cryosphere, 6, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-101-2012, 2012.
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013.
Fürst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Merino, N., Tavard, L., Mouginot, J., Gourmelen, N., and Gagliardini, O.: Assimilation of Antarctic velocity observations provides evidence for uncharted pinning points, The Cryosphere, 9, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1427-2015, 2015.
Fürst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Rankl, M., Braun, M., and Gagliardini, O.: The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature Clim. Change, 6, 2014–2017, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2912, 2016.
Goldberg, D., Holland, D. M., and Schoof, C.: Grounding line movement and ice shelf buttressing in marine ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, F04026, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001227, 2009.
Gong, Y., Cornford, S. L., and Payne, A. J.: Modelling the response of the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system, East Antarctica, to uncertain climate forcing over the 21st and 22nd centuries, The Cryosphere, 8, 1057–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014, 2014.
Gudmundsson, G. H., Krug, J., Durand, G., Favier, L., and Gagliardini, O.: The stability of grounding lines on retrograde slopes, The Cryosphere, 6, 1497–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1497-2012, 2012.
Hattermann, T., Smedsrud, L. H., Nøst, O. A., Lilly, J. M., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: Eddy-resolving simulations of the Fimbul Ice Shelf cavity circulation: Basal melting and exchange with open ocean, Ocean Model., 82, 28–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.07.004, 2014.
Humbert, A. and Steinhage, D.: The evolution of the western rift area of the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 5, 931–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-931-2011, 2011.
Jay-Allemand, M., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gagliardini, O., and Nodet, M.: Investigating changes in basal conditions of Variegated Glacier prior to and during its 1982–1983 surge, The Cryosphere, 5, 659–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-659-2011, 2011.
Joughin, I. and Alley, R. B.: Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world, Nature Geosci., 4, 506–513, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1194, 2011.
Le Brocq, A. M., Payne, A. J., and Vieli, A.: An improved Antarctic dataset for high resolution numerical ice sheet models (ALBMAP v1), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 2, 247–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2-247-2010, 2010.
Livingstone, S. J., Ó Cofaigh, C., Stokes, C. R., Hillenbrand, C.-D., Vieli, A., and Jamieson, S. S.: Antarctic palaeo-ice streams, Earth-Sci. Rev., 111, 90–128, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.10.003, 2012.
MacAyeal, D. R.: A tutorial on the use of control methods in ice-sheet modeling, J. Glaciol., 39, 91–98, https://doi.org/1993JoG39-131-91-98, 1993.
Matsuoka, K., Hindmarsh, R. C., Moholdt, G., Bentley, M. J., Pritchard, H. D., Brown, J., Conway, H., Drews, R., Durand, G., Goldberg, D., Hattermann, T., Kingslake, J., Lenaerts, J. T., Martín, C., Mulvaney, R., Nicholls, K., Pattyn, F., Ross, N., Scambos, T., and Whitehouse, P. L.: Antarctic ice rises and rumples: their properties and significance for ice-sheet dynamics and evolution, Earth-Sci. Rev., 150, 724–745, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.09.004, 2015.
Mercer, J.: West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster, Nature, 271, 321–325, https://doi.org/10.1038/271321a0, 1978.
Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., Larour, E., and Rignot, E.: Inversion of basal friction in Antarctica using exact and incomplete adjoints of a higher-order model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 118, 1746–1753, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20125, 2013.
Mouginot, M., Rignot, E., Gim, Y., Kirchner, D., and Lemeur, E.: Low-frequency radar sounding of ice in East Antarctica and southern Greenland, Ann. Glaciol., 55, 138–146, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014AoG67A089, 2014.
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–332, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015.
Pattyn, F.: Antarctic subglacial conditions inferred from a hybrid ice sheet/ice stream model, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett. 295, 451–461, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.04.025, 2010.
Pattyn, F. and Durand, G.: Why marine ice sheet model predictions may diverge in estimating future sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4316–4320, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50824, 2013.
Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. a., Vaughan, D. G., van den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10968, 2012.
Raymond, C. F.: Deformation in the vicinity of ice divides, J. Glaciol., 29, 357–373, 1983.
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts, J.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011.
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-Shelf Melting Around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798, 2013.
Ritz, C., Edwards, T. L., Durand, G., Payne, A. J., Peyaud, V., and Hindmarsh, R. C. A.: Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations, Nature, 528, 115–118, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16147, 2015.
Schmeltz, M., Rignot, E., and MacAyeal, D. R.: Ephemeral grounding as a signal of ice-shelf change, J. Glaciol., 47, 71–77, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756501781832502, 2001.
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227–1231, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117, 2014.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Thomas, R. H. and Bentley, C. R.: A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Res., 10, 150–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4, 1978.
Tinto, K. J. and Bell, R. E.: Progressive unpinning of Thwaites Glacier from newly identified offshore ridge: Constraints from aerogravity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049026, 2011.
Weertman, J.: On the sliding of glaciers, J. Glaciol., 3, 33–38, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8705-1_19, 1957.
Weertman, J.: Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf, J. Glaciol., 13, 3–11, 1974.
Wright, A. P., Le Brocq, A. M., Cornford, S. L., Bingham, R. G., Corr, H. F. J., Ferraccioli, F., Jordan, T. A., Payne, A. J., Rippin, D. M., Ross, N., and Siegert, M. J.: Sensitivity of the Weddell Sea sector ice streams to sub-shelf melting and surface accumulation, The Cryosphere, 8, 2119–2134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2119-2014, 2014.
Short summary
We demonstrate the short-term unstable retreat of an East Antarctic outlet glacier triggered by imposed sub-ice-shelf melt, compliant with current values, using a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model. We show that pinning points – topographic highs in contact with the ice-shelf base – have a major impact on ice-sheet stability and timing of grounding-line retreat. The study therefore calls for improving our knowledge of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry in order to reduce uncertainties in future ice loss.
We demonstrate the short-term unstable retreat of an East Antarctic outlet glacier triggered by...
