Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2291-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Sep 2016
Research article |
| 30 Sep 2016
Effects of bryophyte and lichen cover on permafrost soil temperature at large scale
Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, 11418 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Altug Ekici
Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, 11418 Stockholm, Sweden
Earth System Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Christian Beer
Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, 11418 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Related authors
Youssef Saadaoui, Christian Beer, Peter Mueller, Friederike Neiske, Joscha N. Becker, Annette Eschenbach, and Philipp Porada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1756, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Estuarine marshes are vital for capturing carbon and benefiting the climate. Our research explored how plant-microbe interactions affect carbon cycling, focusing on traits like root oxygen loss. Using a model, we found that accounting for these trait variations significantly changes carbon balance estimates. This suggests that including plant diversity in ecosystem models improves predictions about carbon dynamics in estuarine marshes, highlighting their importance in climate regulation.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences, 20, 2553–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We found that the modelled annual carbon balance of biocrusts is strongly affected by both the environment (mostly air temperature and CO2 concentration) and physiology, such as temperature response of respiration. However, the relative impacts of these drivers vary across regions with different climates. Uncertainty in driving factors may lead to unrealistic carbon balance estimates, particularly in temperate climates, and may be explained by seasonal variation of physiology due to acclimation.
Suman Halder, Susanne K. M. Arens, Kai Jensen, Tais W. Dahl, and Philipp Porada
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2325–2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A dynamic vegetation model, designed to estimate potential impacts of early vascular vegetation, namely, lycopsids, on the biogeochemical cycle at a local scale. Lycopsid Model (LYCOm) estimates the productivity and physiological properties of lycopsids across a broad climatic range along with natural selection, which is then utilized to adjudge their weathering potential. It lays the foundation for estimation of their impacts during their long evolutionary history starting from the Ordovician.
Félix Pellerin, Philipp Porada, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
While several biological processes are similar among terrestrial and marine ecosystems, their representation in Earth System Models may differ. By comparing the terrestrial and marine modules of 17 Earth System Models, we found multiple evidences of unjustified differences in processes representation. These inconsistencies may lead to wrong predictions about the role of biosphere in the climate system and skew our perception of the relative influence of each ecosystem on climate.
Philipp Porada, Alexandra Tamm, Jose Raggio, Yafang Cheng, Axel Kleidon, Ulrich Pöschl, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 16, 2003–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The trace gases NO and HONO are crucial for atmospheric chemistry. It has been suggested that biological soil crusts in drylands contribute substantially to global NO and HONO emissions, based on empirical upscaling of laboratory and field observations. Here we apply an alternative, process-based modeling approach to predict these emissions. We find that biological soil crusts emit globally significant amounts of NO and HONO, which also vary depending on the type of biological soil crust.
Stefano Manzoni, Petr Čapek, Philipp Porada, Martin Thurner, Mattias Winterdahl, Christian Beer, Volker Brüchert, Jan Frouz, Anke M. Herrmann, Björn D. Lindahl, Steve W. Lyon, Hana Šantrůčková, Giulia Vico, and Danielle Way
Biogeosciences, 15, 5929–5949, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon fixed by plants and phytoplankton through photosynthesis is ultimately stored in soils and sediments or released to the atmosphere during decomposition of dead biomass. Carbon-use efficiency is a useful metric to quantify the fate of carbon – higher efficiency means higher storage and lower release to the atmosphere. Here we summarize many definitions of carbon-use efficiency and study how this metric changes from organisms to ecosystems and from terrestrial to aquatic environments.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere, 12, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized model experiments demonstrate that, in addition to a gradual climate change, changing daily to weekly variability of meteorological variables and extreme events will also have an impact on mean annual ground temperature in high-latitude permafrost areas. In fact, results of the land surface model experiments show that the projected increase of variability of meteorological variables leads to cooler permafrost soil in contrast to an otherwise soil warming in response to climate change.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Philipp Porada, Ulrich Pöschl, Axel Kleidon, Christian Beer, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 14, 1593–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release nitrous oxide, which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone-depleting agent. Here we apply a process-based computer model of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, to estimate growth and respiration of the organisms. By relating respiration to nitrous oxide release, we simulate global nitrous oxide emissions of 0.27 (0.19–0.35) Tg yr−1. Moreover, we quantify different sources of uncertainty in nitrous oxide emission rates.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Models suggest thawing permafrost in future due to climate change. In addition to warming, day-to-day variability of air temperature and precipitation is projected to increase. In an idealized theoretical model experiment we show that such changing short-term variability will reduce soil warming as a consequence of air warming by up to 1 K due to effects on snow and moss insulating layers. This shows the need of a mechanistic representation of such layers in Earth system models.
C. Buendía, S. Arens, T. Hickler, S. I. Higgins, P. Porada, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 11, 3661–3683, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, 2014
A. Kleidon, M. Renner, and P. Porada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2201–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, 2014
P. Porada, B. Weber, W. Elbert, U. Pöschl, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 10, 6989–7033, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, 2013
Melanie A. Thurner, Xavier Rodriguez-Lloveras, and Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2548, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Soil texture varies over centimeters, which is overseen by large-scale models, likely causing simulation errors. We developed a 2-dimesional geophysical soil model (DynSoM-2D) with a resolution of 10 cm and ran it with different setups at a permafrost-affected site. Using high-resolution input, DynSoM-2D simulates a warmer soil, which thaws deeper and has an extended snow-free period in summer. These changes can impact ecosystem dynamics, but have little effect on yearly soil-air heat exchange.
Marius Moser, Lara Kaiser, Victor Brovkin, and Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3159, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic warming might lead to increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. Process-based prediction of their ratio is key to projecting the future carbon cycle. However, land surface models often assume a constant ratio. To overcome this limitation, we identify three core processes for representing methanogenesis accurately in land surface models: fermentation, acetoclastic methanogenesis, and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis.
Youssef Saadaoui, Christian Beer, Peter Mueller, Friederike Neiske, Joscha N. Becker, Annette Eschenbach, and Philipp Porada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1756, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Estuarine marshes are vital for capturing carbon and benefiting the climate. Our research explored how plant-microbe interactions affect carbon cycling, focusing on traits like root oxygen loss. Using a model, we found that accounting for these trait variations significantly changes carbon balance estimates. This suggests that including plant diversity in ecosystem models improves predictions about carbon dynamics in estuarine marshes, highlighting their importance in climate regulation.
Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fauna and flora respires carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is a major carbon flux into the atmosphere. The underlying biochemical processes are complex, and we generalize them either assuming a first order chemical reaction of carbon and oxygen to carbon dioxide, or assuming enzymatic reactions. Here, we show that these assumptions lead to large differences in estimating the carbon-climate feedback until 2100 and the remaining carbon budget to keep warming below 2 degrees C.
Yunyao Ma, Bettina Weber, Alexandra Kratz, José Raggio, Claudia Colesie, Maik Veste, Maaike Y. Bader, and Philipp Porada
Biogeosciences, 20, 2553–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We found that the modelled annual carbon balance of biocrusts is strongly affected by both the environment (mostly air temperature and CO2 concentration) and physiology, such as temperature response of respiration. However, the relative impacts of these drivers vary across regions with different climates. Uncertainty in driving factors may lead to unrealistic carbon balance estimates, particularly in temperate climates, and may be explained by seasonal variation of physiology due to acclimation.
Suman Halder, Susanne K. M. Arens, Kai Jensen, Tais W. Dahl, and Philipp Porada
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2325–2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A dynamic vegetation model, designed to estimate potential impacts of early vascular vegetation, namely, lycopsids, on the biogeochemical cycle at a local scale. Lycopsid Model (LYCOm) estimates the productivity and physiological properties of lycopsids across a broad climatic range along with natural selection, which is then utilized to adjudge their weathering potential. It lays the foundation for estimation of their impacts during their long evolutionary history starting from the Ordovician.
Félix Pellerin, Philipp Porada, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-55, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
While several biological processes are similar among terrestrial and marine ecosystems, their representation in Earth System Models may differ. By comparing the terrestrial and marine modules of 17 Earth System Models, we found multiple evidences of unjustified differences in processes representation. These inconsistencies may lead to wrong predictions about the role of biosphere in the climate system and skew our perception of the relative influence of each ecosystem on climate.
Altug Ekici, Hanna Lee, David M. Lawrence, Sean C. Swenson, and Catherine Prigent
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5291–5300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-rich permafrost thaw can create expanding thermokarst lakes as well as shrinking large wetlands. Such processes can have major biogeochemical implications and feedbacks to climate systems by altering the pathways and rates of permafrost carbon release. We developed a new model parameterization that allows a direct representation of surface water dynamics with subsidence. Our results show increased surface water fractions around western Siberian plains and northeastern territories of Canada.
Philipp Porada, Alexandra Tamm, Jose Raggio, Yafang Cheng, Axel Kleidon, Ulrich Pöschl, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 16, 2003–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The trace gases NO and HONO are crucial for atmospheric chemistry. It has been suggested that biological soil crusts in drylands contribute substantially to global NO and HONO emissions, based on empirical upscaling of laboratory and field observations. Here we apply an alternative, process-based modeling approach to predict these emissions. We find that biological soil crusts emit globally significant amounts of NO and HONO, which also vary depending on the type of biological soil crust.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Stefano Manzoni, Petr Čapek, Philipp Porada, Martin Thurner, Mattias Winterdahl, Christian Beer, Volker Brüchert, Jan Frouz, Anke M. Herrmann, Björn D. Lindahl, Steve W. Lyon, Hana Šantrůčková, Giulia Vico, and Danielle Way
Biogeosciences, 15, 5929–5949, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon fixed by plants and phytoplankton through photosynthesis is ultimately stored in soils and sediments or released to the atmosphere during decomposition of dead biomass. Carbon-use efficiency is a useful metric to quantify the fate of carbon – higher efficiency means higher storage and lower release to the atmosphere. Here we summarize many definitions of carbon-use efficiency and study how this metric changes from organisms to ecosystems and from terrestrial to aquatic environments.
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere, 12, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-741-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized model experiments demonstrate that, in addition to a gradual climate change, changing daily to weekly variability of meteorological variables and extreme events will also have an impact on mean annual ground temperature in high-latitude permafrost areas. In fact, results of the land surface model experiments show that the projected increase of variability of meteorological variables leads to cooler permafrost soil in contrast to an otherwise soil warming in response to climate change.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Philipp Porada, Ulrich Pöschl, Axel Kleidon, Christian Beer, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 14, 1593–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release nitrous oxide, which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone-depleting agent. Here we apply a process-based computer model of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, to estimate growth and respiration of the organisms. By relating respiration to nitrous oxide release, we simulate global nitrous oxide emissions of 0.27 (0.19–0.35) Tg yr−1. Moreover, we quantify different sources of uncertainty in nitrous oxide emission rates.
Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, and Altug Ekici
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
There is a large amount of relatively inert organic carbon locked into permafrost soils. In a warming climate the permafrost will thaw and this organic carbon will become vulnerable to decomposition. This process is not typically included within Earth system models (ESMs). This paper describes the development of a vertically resolved soil organic carbon decomposition model which, in the future, can be included within the UKESM to quantify the response of the climate to permafrost carbon loss.
Sonja Kaiser, Mathias Göckede, Karel Castro-Morales, Christian Knoblauch, Altug Ekici, Thomas Kleinen, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, and Christian Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
Christian Beer, Philipp Porada, Altug Ekici, and Matthias Brakebusch
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-210, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Models suggest thawing permafrost in future due to climate change. In addition to warming, day-to-day variability of air temperature and precipitation is projected to increase. In an idealized theoretical model experiment we show that such changing short-term variability will reduce soil warming as a consequence of air warming by up to 1 K due to effects on snow and moss insulating layers. This shows the need of a mechanistic representation of such layers in Earth system models.
Stefan Hagemann, Tanja Blome, Altug Ekici, and Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 611–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The present study analyses how cold-region physical soil processes, especially freezing of soil water, impact large-scale hydrology and climate over Northern Hemisphere high-latitude land areas. For this analysis, an atmosphere–land global climate model was used. It is shown that including these processes in the model leads to improved discharge in spring and a positive land–atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes that has previously not been noted for the high latitudes.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
C. Buendía, S. Arens, T. Hickler, S. I. Higgins, P. Porada, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 11, 3661–3683, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, 2014
A. Kleidon, M. Renner, and P. Porada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2201–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, 2014
A. Ekici, C. Beer, S. Hagemann, J. Boike, M. Langer, and C. Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, 2014
P. Porada, B. Weber, W. Elbert, U. Pöschl, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 10, 6989–7033, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Numerical Modelling
Investigating the impact of reanalysis snow input on an observationally calibrated snow-on-sea-ice reconstruction
Sea level rise contribution from Ryder Glacier in northern Greenland varies by an order of magnitude by 2300 depending on future emissions
Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios
Calving driven by horizontal forces in a revised crevasse-depth framework
The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast
Improved basal drag of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from L-curve analysis of inverse models utilizing subglacial hydrology simulations
Disentangling the oceanic drivers behind the post-2000 retreat of Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland (Jakobshavn Isbræ)
Glacier damage evolution over ice flow timescales
Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins
Quantifying radiative effects of light-absorbing particle deposition on snow at the SnowMIP sites
A minimal machine-learning glacier mass balance model
Improving large-scale snow albedo modeling using a climatology of light-absorbing particle deposition
Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes
The thermal state of permafrost in under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2022: A case study of the West Kunlun
Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
A hybrid ice-mélange model based on particle and continuum methods
New glacier thickness and bed topography maps for Svalbard
Quantifying the buttressing contribution of landfast sea ice and melange to Crane Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula
Multi-physics ensemble modelling of Arctic tundra snowpack properties
Combining observational data and numerical models to obtain a seamless high temporal resolution seasonal cycle of snow and ice mass balance at the MOSAiC Central Observatory
Two-way coupling between ice flow and channelized subglacial drainage enhances modeled marine-ice-sheet retreat
Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations
Modelling snowpack on ice surfaces with the ORCHIDEE land surface model: application to the Greenland ice sheet
Application of a regularised Coulomb sliding law to Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland
Brief communication: Stalagmite damage by cave ice flow quantitatively assessed by fluid–structure interaction simulations
Exploring the decision-making process in model development: focus on the Arctic snowpack
Exploring the potential of forest snow modeling at the tree and snowpack layer scale
Simulating lake ice phenology using a coupled atmosphere–lake model at Nam Co, a typical deep alpine lake on the Tibetan Plateau
Modelling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting rates in frozen rock clefts
How many parameters are needed to represent polar sea ice surface patterns and heterogeneity?
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations
Analytical solutions for the advective–diffusive ice column in the presence of strain heating
Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes
Microstructure-based modelling of snow mechanics: experimental evaluation of the cone penetration test
Snow redistribution in an intermediate-complexity snow hydrology modelling framework
Increasing numerical stability of mountain valley glacier simulations: implementation and testing of free-surface stabilization in Elmer/Ice
Analyzing the sensitivity of a blowing snow model (SnowPappus) to precipitation forcing, blowing snow, and spatial resolution
Exploring non-Gaussian sea ice characteristics via observing system simulation experiments
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models
Age, thinning and spatial origin of the Beyond EPICA ice from a 2.5D ice flow model
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift
A Novel Transformation of the Ice Sheet Stokes Equations and Some of its Properties and Applications
A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard
Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic
Using Icepack to reproduce ice mass balance buoy observations in landfast ice: improvements from the mushy-layer thermodynamics
Modeling the timing of Patagonian Ice Sheet retreat in the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka
Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance
Understanding the influence of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation: a modeling study with an atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model
Sea ice cover in the Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming
Alex Cabaj, Paul J. Kushner, and Alek A. Petty
The Cryosphere, 19, 3033–3064, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3033-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3033-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The output of snow-on-sea-ice models is influenced by the choice of snowfall input used. We ran such a model with different snowfall inputs and calibrated it to observations, produced a new calibrated snow product, and regionally compared the model outputs to outputs from another snow-on-sea-ice model. The two models agree best on the seasonal cycle of snow in the central Arctic Ocean. Observational comparisons highlight ongoing challenges in estimating the depth and density of snow on Arctic sea ice.
Felicity A. Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2695–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades, in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low- and a high-emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high-emissions future lead to a sea level rise contribution that is an order of magnitude higher than under a low-emissions future.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Adrian Jenkins, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
The Cryosphere, 19, 2527–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2527-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica have been retreating and losing mass, but their future contribution to global sea level rise remains highly uncertain. We use an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification methods to evaluate the probable range of mass loss from this region for two future climate scenarios. We find that the rate of ice loss until 2100 will likely remain similar to present-day observations, with little sensitivity to climate scenario over this short time frame.
Donald A. Slater and Till J. W. Wagner
The Cryosphere, 19, 2475–2493, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2475-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2475-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Calving is when icebergs break off glaciers and fall into the ocean. It is an important process determining how ice sheets will respond to changes in climate, but it is currently poorly understood and hard to include in numerical models that are used for sea-level projections. We adapted and extended an existing theory for how this process works, better explaining observations showing that calving style depends on how thick the ice is.
Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Brandon S. Tober, Michael Daniel, Victor Devaux-Chupin, Michael S. Christoffersen, John W. Holt, Christopher F. Larsen, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G. Loso, Kristin M. F. Timm, Russell C. Mitchell, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 19, 2321–2353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
Lea-Sophie Höyns, Thomas Kleiner, Andreas Rademacher, Martin Rückamp, Michael Wolovick, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 19, 2133–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The sliding of glaciers over bedrock is influenced by water pressure in the underlying hydrological system and the roughness of the land underneath the glacier. We estimate this roughness through a modeling approach that optimizes this unknown parameter. Additionally, we simulate water pressure, enhancing the reliability of the computed drag at the ice sheet base. The resulting data are provided to other modelers and scientists conducting geophysical field observations.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Meghana Ranganathan, Alexander A. Robel, Alexander Huth, and Ravindra Duddu
The Cryosphere, 19, 1599–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice sheet and by the internal fracturing of the ice. These processes are coupled; fractures reduce the viscosity of ice and enable more rapid flow, and rapid flow causes the fracturing of ice. We present a simplified way of representing damage that is applicable to long-timescale flow estimates. Using this model, we find that including fracturing in an ice sheet simulation can increase the loss of ice by 13–29 %.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 19, 1491–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Enrico Zorzetto, Paul Ginoux, Sergey Malyshev, and Elena Shevliakova
The Cryosphere, 19, 1313–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1313-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Light-absorbing particle (LAP) deposition on snow leads to a darkening of the snow surface and can thus accelerate snow melt. Understanding the extent to which different types of LAPs contribute to snow melt is important to both predict changes in water availability and improve global climate model predictions. Here, we extend a recently developed snow model to account for the deposition of LAPs in the snowpack and evaluate the effect of snow darkening on accelerating snow melt.
Marijn van der Meer, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Jordi Bolibar, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 19, 805–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat poses big challenges, making understanding how climate affects glaciers vital. But glacier measurements worldwide are limited. We created a simple machine-learning model called miniML-MB, which estimates annual changes in glacier mass in the Swiss Alps. As input, miniML-MB uses two climate variables: average temperature (May–Aug) and total precipitation (Oct–Feb). Our model can accurately predict glacier mass from 1961 to 2021 but struggles for extreme years (2022 and 2023).
Manon Gaillard, Vincent Vionnet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, and Paul Ginoux
The Cryosphere, 19, 769–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an efficient method to improve large-scale snow albedo simulations by considering the spatial variability in light-absorbing particles (LAPs) like black carbon and dust. A global climatology of LAP deposition was created and used to optimize a parameter in the Crocus snow model. Testing at 10 global sites improved albedo predictions by 10 % on average and over 25 % in the Arctic. This method can enhance other snow models' predictions without complex simulations.
Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert
The Cryosphere, 19, 685–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.
Jianting Zhao, Lin Zhao, Ze Sun, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Minxuan Xiao, Guangyue Liu, Qiangqiang Pang, Erji Du, Zhibin Li, Xiaodong Wu, Yao Xiao, Lingxiao Wang, and Wenxin Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3956, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The thermal regime is a key indicator of permafrost evolution. We quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the permafrost status in western Tibet since the 1980s, based on numerical simulations using the enhanced, model-forcing-driven Moving-Grid Permafrost Model. Our simulated results indicated that slow and lagged response of permafrost to climate warming, which closely linked to historical thermal conditions.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Saskia Kahl, Carolin Mehlmann, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 19, 129–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice mélange, a mixture of sea ice and icebergs, can impact sea-ice–ocean interactions. But climate models do not yet represent it due to computational limits. To address this shortcoming and include ice mélange into climate models, we suggest representing icebergs as particles. We integrate their feedback into mathematical equations used to model the sea-ice motion in climate models. The setup is computationally efficient due to the iceberg particle usage and enables a realistic representation.
Ward van Pelt and Thomas Frank
The Cryosphere, 19, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard's glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and a future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations to infer basal conditions. We present and analyse the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6800 km3), and compare these against radar data and previous studies.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
The Cryosphere, 18, 5789–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, multi-year landfast sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the fast ice was joined to the glacier terminus, it could provide resistance against the glacier's flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the fast ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Georgina J. Woolley, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Vincent Vionnet, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Philip Marsh, Rosamond Tutton, Branden Walker, Matthieu Lafaysse, and David Pritchard
The Cryosphere, 18, 5685–5711, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Parameterisations of Arctic snow processes were implemented into the multi-physics ensemble version of the snow model Crocus (embedded within the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow version 2 land surface model) and evaluated at an Arctic tundra site. Optimal combinations of parameterisations that improved the simulation of density and specific surface area featured modifications that raise wind speeds to increase compaction in surface layers, prevent snowdrift, and increase viscosity in basal layers.
Polona Itkin and Glen E. Liston
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3402, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The MOSAiC project provided a year of observations of Arctic snow and sea ice, though some data were interrupted, especially during summer melt onset. We developed a data-model fusion system to produce continuous, high-resolution time series of snow and sea ice parameters. On all three analyzed three ice types snow redistribution correlated with sea ice deformation and level ice thickness was governed by the thinnest fraction of snow cover.
George Lu and Jonathan Kingslake
The Cryosphere, 18, 5301–5321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water below ice sheets affects ice-sheet motion, while the evolution of ice sheets likewise affects the water below. We create a model that allows for water and ice to affect each other and use it to see how this coupling or lack thereof may impact ice-sheet retreat. We find that coupling an evolving water system with the ice sheet results in more retreat than if we assume unchanging conditions under the ice, which indicates a need to better represent the effects of water in ice-sheet models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
Alexander H. Jarosch, Paul Hofer, and Christoph Spötl
The Cryosphere, 18, 4811–4816, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanical damage to stalagmites is commonly observed in mid-latitude caves. In this study we investigate ice flow along the cave bed as a possible mechanism for stalagmite damage. Utilizing models which simulate forces created by ice flow, we study the structural integrity of different stalagmite geometries. Our results suggest that structural failure of stalagmites caused by ice flow is possible, albeit unlikely.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Giulia Mazzotti, Jari-Pekka Nousu, Vincent Vionnet, Tobias Jonas, Rafife Nheili, and Matthieu Lafaysse
The Cryosphere, 18, 4607–4632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As many boreal and alpine forests have seasonal snow, models are needed to predict forest snow under future environmental conditions. We have created a new forest snow model by combining existing, very detailed model components for the canopy and the snowpack. We applied it to forests in Switzerland and Finland and showed how complex forest cover leads to a snowpack layering that is very variable in space and time because different processes prevail at different locations in the forest.
Xu Zhou, Binbin Wang, Xiaogang Ma, Zhu La, and Kun Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4589–4605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simulation of the ice phenology of Nam Co by WRF is investigated. Compared with the default model, improving the key lake schemes, such as water surface roughness length for heat fluxes and the shortwave radiation transfer for lake ice, can better simulate the lake ice phenology. The still existing errors in the spatial patterns of lake ice phenology imply that challenges still exist in modelling key lake and non-lake physics such as grid-scale water circulation and snow-related processes.
Amir Sedaghatkish, Frédéric Doumenc, Pierre-Yves Jeannin, and Marc Luetscher
The Cryosphere, 18, 4531–4546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model to simulate the natural convection of water within frozen rock crevices subject to daily warming in mountain permafrost regions. Traditional models relying on conduction and latent heat flux typically overlook free convection. The results reveal that free convection can significantly accelerate the melting rate by an order of magnitude compared to conduction-based models. Our results are important for assessing the impact of climate change on mountain infrastructure.
Joseph Fogarty, Elie Bou-Zeid, Mitchell Bushuk, and Linette Boisvert
The Cryosphere, 18, 4335–4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We hypothesize that using a broad set of surface characterization metrics for polar sea ice surfaces will lead to more accurate representations in general circulation models. However, the first step is to identify the minimum set of metrics required. We show via numerical simulations that sea ice surface patterns can play a crucial role in determining boundary layer structures. We then statistically analyze a set of high-resolution sea ice surface images to obtain this minimal set of parameters.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Tim Hageman, Jessica Mejía, Ravindra Duddu, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 3991–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.
Clémence Herny, Pascal Hagenmuller, Guillaume Chambon, Isabel Peinke, and Jacques Roulle
The Cryosphere, 18, 3787–3805, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the evaluation of a numerical discrete element method (DEM) by simulating cone penetration tests in different snow samples. The DEM model demonstrated a good ability to reproduce the measured mechanical behaviour of the snow, namely the force evolution on the cone and the grain displacement field. Systematic sensitivity tests showed that the mechanical response depends not only on the microstructure of the sample but also on the mechanical parameters of grain contacts.
Louis Quéno, Rebecca Mott, Paul Morin, Bertrand Cluzet, Giulia Mazzotti, and Tobias Jonas
The Cryosphere, 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow redistribution by wind and avalanches strongly influences snow hydrology in mountains. This study presents a novel modelling approach to best represent these processes in an operational context. The evaluation of the simulations against airborne snow depth measurements showed remarkable improvement in the snow distribution in mountains of the eastern Swiss Alps, with a representation of snow accumulation and erosion areas, suggesting promising benefits for operational snow melt forecasts.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Baron, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, César Deschamps-Berger, Vincent Vionnet, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 18, 3081–3116, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations with snow transport against snow depths from Pléiades stereo imagery and snow melt-out dates from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellites. Additionally, we disentangle error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation heterogeneity, and unresolved subgrid variability. Snow transport enhances the snow simulations at high elevations, while precipitation biases are the main error source in other areas.
Christopher Riedel and Jeffrey Anderson
The Cryosphere, 18, 2875–2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate sea ice conditions are crucial for quality sea ice projections, which have been connected to rapid warming over the Arctic. Knowing which observations to assimilate into models will help produce more accurate sea ice conditions. We found that not assimilating sea ice concentration led to more accurate sea ice states. The methods typically used to assimilate observations in our models apply assumptions to variables that are not well suited for sea ice because they are bounded variables.
Julia Selivanova, Doroteaciro Iovino, and Francesco Cocetta
The Cryosphere, 18, 2739–2763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models show differences in sea ice representation in comparison to observations. Increasing the model resolution is a recognized way to improve model realism and obtain more reliable future projections. We find no strong impact of resolution on sea ice representation; it rather depends on the analysed variable and the model used. By 2050, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) becomes a dominant feature of the Arctic ice cover, suggesting a shift to a new regime similar to that in Antarctica.
Ailsa Chung, Frédéric Parrenin, Robert Mulvaney, Luca Vittuari, Massimo Frezzotti, Antonio Zanutta, David A. Lilien, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Olaf Eisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied an ice flow model to a flow line from the summit of Dome C to the Beyond EPICA ice core drill site on Little Dome C in Antarctica. Results show that the oldest ice at the drill site may be 1.12 Ma (at age density of 20 kyr/m) and originate from around 15 km upstream. We also discuss the nature of the 200–250 m thick basal layer which could be composed of accreted ice, stagnant ice, or even disturbed ice containing debris.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
John K. Dukowicz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1052, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A novel transformation of the Stokes ice sheet equations is presented that expands the scope of traditional methods. The new formulation is closely related to a widely used Stokes approximation, the Blatter-Pattyn model, such that an ice sheet model may be easily switched between the two formulations, allowing for adaptive applications. The new formulation also facilitates new approximations that improve on the Blatter-Pattyn model, heretofore the best approximate ice sheet model.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Guillaume Boutin, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 18, 1791–1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
Mathieu Plante, Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, Adrienne Tivy, Joey Angnatok, François Roy, Gregory Smith, Frédéric Dupont, and Adrian K. Turner
The Cryosphere, 18, 1685–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a sea ice model to reproduce ice growth observations from two buoys deployed on coastal sea ice and analyze the improvements brought by new physics that represent the presence of saline liquid water in the ice interior. We find that the new physics with default parameters degrade the model performance, with overly rapid ice growth and overly early snow flooding on top of the ice. The performance is largely improved by simple modifications to the ice growth and snow-flooding algorithms.
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the retreat history of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) across the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka. These results improve our understanding of the response of the PIS to deglacial warming and the patterns of deglacial ice margin retreat where gaps in the geologic record still exist, and they indicate that changes in large-scale precipitation during the last deglaciation played an important role in modulating the response of ice margin change across the PIS to deglacial warming.
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g. 100 year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations, to get more accurate information on 5–10 year time scales. Reliable information on these time scales is very important, especially for water management experts to know how much meltwater to expect, for rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1215–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model to study the influences of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation. Our results show (1) smaller ice-floe size with wave breaking increases ice melt, (2) the responses in the atmosphere and ocean to smaller floe size partially reduce the effect of the enhanced ice melt, (3) the limited oceanic energy is a strong constraint for ice melt enhancement, and (4) ocean waves can indirectly affect sea ice through the atmosphere and the ocean.
Yurii Batrak, Bin Cheng, and Viivi Kallio-Myers
The Cryosphere, 18, 1157–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric reanalyses provide consistent series of atmospheric and surface parameters in a convenient gridded form. In this paper, we study the quality of sea ice in a recently released regional reanalysis and assess its added value compared to a global reanalysis. We show that the regional reanalysis, having a more complex sea ice model, gives an improved representation of sea ice, although there are limitations indicating potential benefits in using more advanced approaches in the future.
Michael A. Rawlins and Ambarish V. Karmalkar
The Cryosphere, 18, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Cited articles
Atchley, A., Coon, E., Painter, S., Harp, D., and Wilson, C.: Influences and interactions of inundation, peat, and snow on active layer thickness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 5116–5123, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068550, 2016.
Bauer, I., Bhatti, J., Swanston, C., Wieder, R., and Preston, C.: Organic Matter Accumulation and Community Change at the Peatland–Upland Interface: Inferences from 14C and 210Pb Dated Profiles, Ecosystems, 12, 636–653, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-009-9248-2, 2009.
Beer, C., Lucht, W., Schmullius, C., and Shvidenko, A.: Small net carbon dioxide uptake by Russian forests during 1981–1999, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L15403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026919, 2006.
Beer, C., Fedorov, A., and Torgovkin, Y.: Permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia with 0.5-degree spatial resolution for model evaluation, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 305–310, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-305-2013, 2013.
Beer, C., Weber, U., Tomelleri, E., Carvalhais, N., Mahecha, M., and Reichstein, M.: Harmonized European Long-Term Climate Data for Assessing the Effect of Changing Temporal Variability on Land–Atmosphere CO2 Fluxes, J. Climate, 27, 4815–4834, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00543.1, 2014.
Bell, P. and Hemsley, A. (Eds.): Green Plants – Their Origin and Diversity, 2nd Edn., Cambridge University Press, New York, 2011.
Benscoter, B. and Vitt, D.: Evaluating feathermoss growth: a challenge to traditional methods and implications for the boreal carbon budget, J. Ecol., 95, 151–158, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2006.01180.x, 2007.
Beringer, J., Lynch, A., Chapin, F., Mack, M., and Bonan, G.: The Representation of Arctic Soils in the Land Surface Model: The Importance of Mosses, J. Climate, 14, 3324–3335, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3324:TROASI>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Bernier, P., Desjardins, R., Karimi-Zindashty, Y., Worth, D., Beaudoin, A., Luo, Y., and Wang, S.: Boreal lichen woodlands: A possible negative feedback to climate change in eastern North America, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 151, 521–528, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.12.013, 2011.
Bisbee, K., Gower, S., Norman, J., and Nordheim, E.: Environmental controls on ground cover species composition and productivity in a boreal black spruce forest, Oecologia, 129, 261–270, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004420100719, 2001.
Blok, D., Heijmans, M., Schaepman-Strub, G., van Ruijven, J., Parmentier, F., Maximov, T., and Berendse, F.: The Cooling Capacity of Mosses: Controls on Water and Energy Fluxes in a Siberian Tundra Site, Ecosystems, 14, 1055–1065, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9463-5, 2011.
Bohn, K., Dyke, J., Pavlick, R., Reineking, B., Reu, B., and Kleidon, A.: The relative importance of seed competition, resource competition and perturbations on community structure, Biogeosciences, 8, 1107–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1107-2011, 2011.
Bona, K., Fyles, J., Shaw, C., and Kurz, W.: Are Mosses Required to Accurately Predict Upland Black Spruce Forest Soil Carbon in National-Scale Forest C Accounting Models?, Ecosystems, 16, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-013-9668-x, 2013.
Bonan, G.: A biophysical surface energy budget analysis of soil temperature in the boreal forests of interior Alaska, Water Resour. Res., 27, 767–781, https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR00143, 1991.
Bonan, G. and Shugart, H.: Environmental Factors and Ecological Processes in Boreal Forests, Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 20, 1–28, 1989.
Bond-Lamberty, B. and Gower, S.: Estimation of stand-level leaf area for boreal bryophytes, Oecologia, 151, 584–592, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-006-0619-5, 2007.
Bond-Lamberty, B., Wang, C., and Gower, S.: Net primary production and net ecosystem production of a boreal black spruce wildfire chronosequence, Global Change Biol., 10, 473–487, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.0742.x, 2004.
Brovkin, V., Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Claussen, M., and Gayler, V.: Global biogeophysical interactions between forest and climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037543, 2009.
Camill, P., Lynch, J., Clark, J., Adams, J., and Jordan, B.: Changes in Biomass, Aboveground Net Primary Production, and Peat Accumulation following Permafrost Thaw in the Boreal Peatlands of Manitoba, Canada, Ecosystems, 4, 461–478, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-001-0022-3, 2001.
Carvalhais, N., Forkel, M., Khomik, M., Bellarby, J., Jung, M., Migliavacca, M., Mu, M., Saatchi, S., Santoro, M., Thurner, M., Weber, U., Ahrens, B., Beer, C., Cescatti, A., Randerson, J., and Reichstein, M.: Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems, Nature, 514, 213–217, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13731, 2014.
Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Essery, R., Boike, J., Langer, M., Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P., and Friedlingstein, P.: An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015a.
Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Essery, R. L. H., Boike, J., Langer, M., Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P. M., and Friedlingstein, P.: Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model, The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015b.
Cowan, I., Lange, O., and Green, T.: Carbon-dioxide exchange in lichens: Determination of transport and carboxylation characteristics, Planta, 187, 282–294, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00201952, 1992.
Ekici, A., Beer, C., Hagemann, S., Boike, J., Langer, M., and Hauck, C.: Simulating high-latitude permafrost regions by the JSBACH terrestrial ecosystem model, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, 2014.
FAO, IIASA, ISRIC, ISS-CAS, and JRC: Harmonized world soil database (version 1.1), FAO, Rome, Italy and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, http://www.fao.org/nr/land/soils/harmonized-world-soildatabase/en (last access: 10 October 2011), 2009.
Farquhar, G. and von Caemmerer, S.: Modelling of Photosynthetic Response to Environmental Conditions, in: Encyclopedia of Plant Physiology, vol. 12B, edited by: Lange, O., Nobel, P., Osmond, C., and Ziegler, H., Springer, Heidelberg, 1982.
French, H. (Ed.): The periglacial environment, 3rd Edn., John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 2007.
Frolking, S., Goulden, M., Wofsy, S., Fan, S.-M., Sutton, D., Munger, J., Bazzaz, A., Daube, B., Crill, P., Aber, J., Band, L., X., W., Savage, K., Moore, T., and Harriss, R.: Modelling temporal variability in the carbon balance of a spruce/moss boreal forest, Global Change Biol., 2, 343–366, 1996.
Goll, D., Brovkin, V.and Liski, J., Raddatz, T., Thum, T., and Todd-Brown, K.: Strong dependence of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 29, 1511–1523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004988, 2015.
Goodrich, L.: The influence of snow cover on the ground thermal regime, Can. Geotech. J., 19, 421–432, https://doi.org/10.1139/t82-047, 1982.
Gornall, J., Jónsdóttir, I., Woodin, S., and Van der Wal, R.: Arctic mosses govern below-ground environment and ecosystem processes, Oecologia, 153, 931–941, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-007-0785-0, 2007.
Goulden, M. and Crill, P.: Automated measurements of CO2 exchange at the moss surface of a black spruce forest, Tree Physiol., 17, 537–542, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/17.8-9.537, 1997.
Gower, S., Vogel, J., Norman, J., Kucharik, C., Steele, S., and Stow, T.: Carbon distribution and aboveground net primary production in aspen, jack pine and black spruce stands in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 29029–29041, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD02317, 1997.
Gower, S., Krankina, O., Olson, R., Apps, M., Linder, S., and Wang, C.: Net primary production and carbon allocation patterns of boreal forest ecosystems, Ecol. Appl., 11, 1395–1411, 2001.
Grime, J., Rincon, E., and Wickerson, B.: Bryophytes and plant strategy theory, Bot. J. Linnean Soc., 104, 175–186, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8339.1990.tb02217.x, 1990.
Hagemann, S. and Stacke, T.: Impact of the soil hydrology scheme on simulated soil moisture memory, Clim. Dynam., 44, 1731–1750, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2221-6, 2015.
Hermle, S., Lavigne, M., Bernier, P., Bergeron, O., and Paré, D.: Component respiration, ecosystem respiration and net primary production of a mature black spruce forest in northern Quebec, Tree Physiol., 30, 527–540, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpq002, 2010.
Hinzman, L., Kane, D., Gieck, R., and Everett, K.: Hydrologic and thermal properties of the active layer in the Alaskan Arctic, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 19, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-232X(91)90001-W, 1991.
Jorgenson, M., Romanovsky, V., Harden, J., Shur, Y., O'Donnell, J., Schuur, E., Kanevskiy, M., and Marchenko, S.: Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change, Can. J. Forest Res., 40, 1219–1236, https://doi.org/10.1139/X10-060, 2010.
Knorr, W.: Annual and interannual CO2 exchanges of the terrestrial biosphere: process-based simulations and uncertainties, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 9, 225–252, 2000.
Kolari, P., Pumpanen, J., Kulmala, L., Ilvesniemi, H., Nikinmaa, E., Grönholm, T., and Hari, P.: Forest floor vegetation plays an important role in photosynthetic production of boreal forests, Forest Ecol. Manage., 221, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2005.10.021, 2006.
Koshurnikova, N.: Annual Production of Moss Layer in Dark Coniferous Forests of Ket-Chulym Forest District (by the Example of Moss Hylocomium splendens), Biol. Bull., 34, 532–536, https://doi.org/10.1134/S1062359007050184, 2007.
Koven, C., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Khvorostyanov, D., Krinner, G., and Tarnocai, C.: On the formation of high-latitude soil carbon stocks: Effects of cryoturbation and insulation by organic matter in a land surface model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040150, 2009.
Lange, O., Hahn, S., Meyer, A., and Tenhunen, J.: Upland Tundra in the Foothills of the Brooks Range, Alaska, U.S.A.: Lichen Long-Term Photosynthetic CO2 Uptake and Net Carbon Gain, Arct. Alp. Res., 30, 252–261, https://doi.org/10.2307/1551972, 1998.
Mack, M., Treseder, K., Manies, K., Harden, J., Schuur, E., Vogel, J., Randerson, J., and Chapin III, F.: Recovery of aboveground plant biomass and productivity after fire in mesic and dry black spruce forests of interior Alaska, Ecosystems, 11, 209–225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-007-9117-9, 2008.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Calvin, K., Daniel, J., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S., Raper, S., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G., and van Vuuren, D.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Mouillot, F. and Field, C.: Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1° × 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century, Global Change Biol., 11, 398–420, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00920.x, 2005.
Nash III, T. (Ed.): Lichen Biology, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, New York, 1996.
O'Connell, K., Gower, S., and Norman, J.: Comparison of Net Primary Production and Light-Use Dynamics of Two Boreal Black Spruce Forest Communities, Ecosystems, 6, 236–247, 2003.
O'Donnell, J., Romanovsky, V., Harden, J., and McGuire, A.: The Effect of Moisture Content on the Thermal Conductivity of Moss and Organic Soil Horizons From Black Spruce Ecosystems in Interior Alaska, Soil Sci., 174, 646–651, 2009.
O'Donnell, J., Harden, J., McGuire, A., Kanevskiy, M., Jorgenson, M., and Xu, X.: The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska: implications for post-thaw carbon loss, Global Change Biol., 17, 1461–1474, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02358.x, 2011.
Oechel, W. and Collins, N.: Comparative CO2 exchange patterns in mosses from two tundra habitats at Barrow, Alaska, Can. J. Bot., 54, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.1139/b76-148, 1976.
Oechel, W. and Van Cleve, K.: The role of bryophytes in nutrient cycling in the taiga, in: Forest ecosystems in the Alaskan taiga. A synthesis of structure and function, edited by: Van Cleve, K., Chapin III, F., Flanagan, P., Vierect, L., and Dyrness, C., Springer, New York, 122–137, 1986.
Olson, D., Dinerstein, E., Wikramanayake, E., Burgess, N., Powell, G., Underwood, E., D'Amico, J., Itoua, I., Strand, H., Morrison, J., Loucks, C., Allnutt, T., Ricketts, T., Kura, Y., Lamoreux, J., Wettengel, W., Hedao, P., and Kassem, K.: Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World: A New Map of Life on Earth, BioScience, 51, 933–938, https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Pachauri, R., Allen, M., Barros, V., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J., Clarke, L., Dahe, Q., Dasgupta, P., et al.: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, in: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2014.
Porada, P., Weber, B., Elbert, W., Pöschl, U., and Kleidon, A.: Estimating global carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 10, 6989–7033, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, 2013.
Porada, P., Weber, B., Elbert, W., Pöschl, U., and Kleidon, A.: Estimating Impacts of Lichens and Bryophytes on Global Biogeochemical Cycles of Nitrogen and Phosphorus and on Chemical Weathering, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 28, 71–85, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004705, 2014.
Proctor, M.: The bryophyte paradox: tolerance of desiccation, evasion of drought, Plant Ecol., 151, 41–49, 2000.
Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Schnitzler, K.-G., Wetzel, P., and Jungclaus, J.: Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate–carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?, Clim. Dynam., 29, 565–574, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8, 2007.
Rapalee, G., Steyaert, L., and Hall, F.: Moss and lichen cover mapping at local and regional scales in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 33551–33563, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000509, 2001.
Rinke, A., Kuhry, P., and Dethloff, K.: Importance of a soil organic layer for Arctic climate: A sensitivity study with an Arctic RCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L13709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034052, 2008.
Rogers, R.: Ecological strategies of lichens, Lichenologist, 22, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.1017/S002428299000010X, 1990.
Ruess, R., Hendrick, R., Burton, A., Pregitzer, K., Sveinbjornsson, B., Allen, M., and Maurer, G.: Coupling fine root dynamics with ecosystem carbon cycling in black spruce forests of interior Alaska, Ecol. Monogr., 73, 643–662, https://doi.org/10.1890/02-4032, 2003.
Schulze, E.-D. and Caldwell, M. M. (Eds.): Ecophysiology of photosynthesis, Springer Science & Business Media, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-79354-7, 1995.
Schuur, E., Crummer, K., Vogel, J., and Mack, M.: Plant Species Composition and Productivity following Permafrost Thaw and Thermokarst in Alaskan Tundra, Ecosystems, 10, 280–292, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-007-9024-0, 2007.
Schuur, E., McGuire, A., Schadel, C., Grosse, G., Harden, J., Hayes, D., Hugelius, G., Koven, C., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D., Natali, S., Olefeldt, D., Romanovsky, V., Schaefer, K., Turetsky, M., Treat, C., and Vonk, J.: Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback, Nature, 520, 171–179, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338, 2015.
Shaver, G. and Chapin III, F.: Production: Biomass relationships and element cycling in contrasting arctic vegetation types, Ecol. Monogr., 61, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.2307/1942997, 1991.
Skre, O. and Oechel, W.: Moss production in a black spruce Picea mariana forest with permafrost near Fairbanks, Alaska, as compared with two permafrost-free stands, Ecography, 2, 249–254, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.1979.tb01296.x, 1979.
Soudzilovskaia, N., van Bodegom, P., and Cornelissen, J.: Dominant bryophyte control over high-latitude soil temperature fluctuations predicted by heat transfer traits, field moisture regime and laws of thermal insulation, Funct. Ecol., 27, 1442–1454, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.12127, 2013.
Stoy, P., Street, L., Johnson, A., Prieto-Blanco, A., and Ewing, S.: Temperature, Heat Flux, and Reflectance of Common Subarctic Mosses and Lichens under Field Conditions: Might Changes to Community Composition Impact Climate-Relevant Surface Fluxes?, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 44, 500–508, https://doi.org/10.1657/1938-4246-44.4.500, 2012.
Street, L., Stoy, P., Sommerkorn, M., Fletcher, B., Sloan, V. L., Hill, T., and Williams, M.: Seasonal bryophyte productivity in the sub-Arctic: A comparison with vascular plants, Funct. Ecol., 26, 365–378, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2011.01954.x, 2012.
Swanson, R. and Flanagan, L.: Environmental regulation of carbon dioxide exchange at the forest floor in a boreal black spruce ecosystem, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 108, 165–181, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(01)00243-X, 2001.
Trumbore, S. and Harden, J.: Accumulation and turnover of carbon in organic and mineral soils of the BOREAS northern study area, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 28817–28830, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD02231, 1997.
Turetsky, M., Mack, M., Hollingsworth, T., and Harden, J.: The role of mosses in ecosystem succession and function in Alaska's boreal forest, Can. J. Forest Res., 40, 1237–1264, https://doi.org/10.1139/X10-072, 2010.
Uchida, M., Muraoka, H., Nakatsubo, T., Bekku, Y., Ueno, T., Kanda, H., and Koizumi, H.: Net Photosynthesis, Respiration, and Production of the Moss Sanionia uncinata on a Glacier Foreland in the High Arctic, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 34, 287–292, https://doi.org/10.2307/1552486, 2002.
Uchida, M., Nakatsubo, T., Kanda, H., and Koizumi, H.: Estimation of the annual primary production of the lichen Cetrariella delisei in a glacier foreland in the High Arctic, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, Polar Res., 25, 39–49, https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v25i1.6237, 2006.
Valladares, F., Wierzchos, J., and Ascaso, C.: Porosimetric Study of the Lichen Family Umbilicariaceae: Anatomical Interpretation and Implications for Water Storage Capacity of the Thallus, Am. J. Bot., 80, 263–272, https://doi.org/10.2307/2445349, 1993.
Verseghy, D.: CLASS – A Canadian land surface scheme for GCMs. I. Soil model, Int. J. Climatol., 11, 111–133, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370110202, 1991.
Vogel, J., Bond-Lamberty, B., Schuur, E., Gower, S., Mack, M., O'Connell, K., Valentine, D., and Ruess, R.: Carbon allocation in boreal black spruce forests across regions varying in soil temperature and precipitation, Global Change Biol., 14, 1503–1516, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01600.x, 2008.
Wahren, C., Walker, M., and Bret-Harte, M.: Vegetation responses in Alaskan arctic tundra after 8 years of a summer warming and winter snow manipulation experiment, Global Change Biol., 11, 537–552, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00927.x, 2005.
Webb, R., Rosenzweig, C., and Levine, E.: Global Soil Texture and Derived Water-Holding Capacities (Webb et al.), ORNL Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/548, 2000.
Williams, T. and Flanagan, L.: Measuring and modelling environmental influences on photosynthetic gas exchange in Sphagnum and Pleurozium, Plant Cell Environ., 21, 555–564, 1998.
Zhu, D., Peng, S., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Druel, A., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Peylin, P., Ottlé, C., Piao, S., Poulter, B., Schepaschenko, D., and Shvidenko, A.: Improving the dynamics of Northern Hemisphere high-latitude vegetation in the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015.
Short summary
Bryophyte and lichen cover on the forest floor at high latitudes insulates the ground and thus decreases soil temperature. This can protect permafrost soil, stabilising it against global warming. To quantify the insulating effect, we integrate a novel, process-based model of bryophyte and lichen growth into the global land surface model JSBACH. We find an average cooling effect of the bryophyte and lichen cover of 2.7 K, which implies a significant impact on soil temperature at high latitudes.
Bryophyte and lichen cover on the forest floor at high latitudes insulates the ground and thus...
