Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5115-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5115-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Sep 2026
Research article |
| 14 Sep 2026
| 14 Sep 2026
Projecting the evolution of the Northern Patagonian Icefield until the year 2200
Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
Institute of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Austral University of Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Ilaria Tabone
Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
Department of Geophysics, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Johannes J. Fürst
Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
Matthias Braun
Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
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Consistent and continuous data on glacier surface velocity are important inputs to time series analyses, numerical ice dynamic modeling and glacier mass flux computations. We present a new data set of glacier surface velocities derived from Sentinel-1 radar satellite data that covers 12 major glaciated regions outside the polar ice sheets. The data comprise continuously updated scene-pair velocity fields, as well as monthly and annually averaged velocity mosaics at 200 m spatial resolution.
Cited articles
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Short summary
The Northern Patagonian Icefield is the second largest ice mass of South America, located at moderate latitudes. Using an ice-flow model which uses available atmosphere data as input and explicitly models iceberg discharge, we assess its evolution. With present climate, it will lose about 36 % until the year 2200. Climate change strongly accelerates losses and under Paris Agreement compliance it is between 38% and 75% and between 81% and 94% under a business-as-usual fossil fuel scenario.
The Northern Patagonian Icefield is the second largest ice mass of South America, located at...
