The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5115-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5115-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 9
Research article
 | 
14 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 14 Sep 2026

Projecting the evolution of the Northern Patagonian Icefield until the year 2200

Marius Schaefer, Ralf Greve, Ilaria Tabone, Johannes J. Fürst, and Matthias Braun

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Short summary
The Northern Patagonian Icefield is the second largest ice mass of South America, located at moderate latitudes. Using an ice-flow model which uses available atmosphere data as input and explicitly models iceberg discharge, we assess its evolution. With present climate, it will lose about 36 % until the year 2200. Climate change strongly accelerates losses and under Paris Agreement compliance it is between 38% and 75%  and between 81% and  94% under a business-as-usual fossil fuel scenario. 
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