Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 29 Sep 2025
| 29 Sep 2025
The surface mass balance and near-surface climate of the Antarctic ice sheet in RACMO2.4p1
Christiaan T. van Dalum
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Willem Jan van de Berg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Michiel R. van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Maurice van Tiggelen
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have global impacts, but their Antarctic impacts are poorly understood. Examining Antarctic snow accumulation anomalies of past observed extreme ENSO events, we show that accumulation changes differ between events and are insignificant during most events. Significant changes occur during 2015/16 and in Enderby Land during all extreme El Niños. Historical data limit conclusions, but future greater extremes could cause Antarctic accumulation changes.
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Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firn, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcings datasets. Our findings suggest that under low emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, under a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
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Lena G. Buth, Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Sophie de Roda Husman, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Bert Wouters
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, 2023
Preprint archived
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Bert Wouters, Jakob F. Steiner, Emile J. Nieuwstraten, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 2601–2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, 2021
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We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
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Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
J. Melchior van Wessem, Christian R. Steger, Nander Wever, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 695–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, 2021
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This study presents the first modelled estimates of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) in Antarctica. PFAs are subsurface meltwater bodies that do not refreeze in winter due to the isolating effects of the snow they are buried underneath. They were first identified in Greenland, but conditions for their existence are also present in the Antarctic Peninsula. These PFAs can have important effects on meltwater retention, ice shelf stability, and, consequently, sea level rise.
Baojuan Huai, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Carleen H. Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 14, 4181–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, 2020
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This study presents the surface energy balance (SEB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using a SEB model forced with observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs). We correlate ERA5 with AWSs to show a significant positive correlation of GrIS summer surface temperature and melt with the Greenland Blocking Index and weaker and opposite correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation. This analysis may help explain melting patterns in the GrIS with respect to circulation anomalies.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Stef Lhermitte, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3645–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, 2020
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The reflectivity of sunlight, which is also known as albedo, is often inadequately modeled in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new snow and ice albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2. In this study, we evaluate a new RACMO2 version for the Greenland ice sheet by using observations and the previous model version. RACMO2 output compares well with observations, and by including new processes we improve the ability of RACMO2 to make future climate projections.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
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Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Cited articles
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Short summary
In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature, and wind speed compare well with in situ and remote sensing observations.
In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for...
