Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 10 Jan 2025
| 10 Jan 2025
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
Francesca Baldacchino
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Te Puna Pātiotio, Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga-Waka, Victoria University of Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
Institute of Geodesy, Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria
Nicholas R. Golledge
Te Puna Pātiotio, Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga-Waka, Victoria University of Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA
Huw Horgan
Te Puna Pātiotio, Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga-Waka, Victoria University of Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill
Te Puna Pātiotio, Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga-Waka, Victoria University of Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
Alena Malyarenko
School of Earth and Environment, Te Kura Aronukurangi, University of Canterbury, Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha, Ōtautahi, Christchurch, New Zealand
Te Puna Pātiotio, Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga-Waka, Victoria University of Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
Alexandra Gossart
Te Puna Pātiotio, Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga-Waka, Victoria University of Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
Daniel P. Lowry
Department of Surface Geosciences, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Laurine van Haastrecht
Te Puna Pātiotio, Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga-Waka, Victoria University of Wellington, Aotearoa, New Zealand
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Huw Joseph Horgan, Andrew Robert Gorman, J. Paul Winberry, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Howard Conway, Gavin B. Dunbar, Tina van de Flierdt, Denise K. Kulhanek, Richard H. Levy, Molly O. Patterson, and Ilaria Santin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-723, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-723, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Knowledge of the past and future of Earth's ice sheets requires us to image beneath the ice surface and into the ice, water, sediment, and rock that lies beneath. An effective way of doing this uses active source seismology. Here we present active source seismic data imaging a diverse range of subglacial environments including subglacial lakes, sub-ice ocean cavities, and geological archives preserving the history of the ice sheets.
Yinmin Liu, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6193, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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ISSM-ML is a modular framework for integrating externally trained Python-based machine learning models into the C++ Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model. It enables ML models to replace physical parameterizations or larger model components without changing the overall workflow. Using a basal friction emulator, we show that high offline accuracy alone does not ensure numerical convergence or stability in coupled simulations.
Tim van den Akker, Mathieu Morlighem, and Nina Kirchner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-6156, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Ice sheet models initialised from observations often suffer an initial “shock” when starting future simulations. The usual fix, a relaxation period where the model settles freely, lets the ice drift from observed conditions and may never reach a steady state. We introduce nudging: gently steering the model during relaxation to remove drift, keep the ice close to observations, and start with the observed thinning rates. We demonstrate it on C.H. Ostenfeld Glacier, northern Greenland.
Clément Cherblanc, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Alexandra Gossart, Nicolaj Hansen, Marte Gé Hofsteenge, Christine Schøtt Hvidberg, Sylvain Marchi, Masashi Niwano, Florian Sauerland, Niels Souverijns, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Baptiste Vandecrux, Christiaan van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Nicole van Lipzig, Maurice van Tiggelen, Kristiina Verro, and Ruth Mottram
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4690, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Regional Climate Models are known to improve the modelling of meteorological variables, like snow accumulation, in mountainous areas, relative to coarser global models. It was unclear whether they also improve the modelling over the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is mostly a nearly flat, high-elevation plateau. We find that Regional Climate Models do perform better than global models on most metrics tested, building trust in the regional models for future Antarctic projections.
Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine F. Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar
The Cryosphere, 20, 5675–5696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026, 2026
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Lakes at glacier margins can drain beneath the ice in devastating, floods called jökulhlaups. We present the first 2D model of jökulhlaup propagation, first applying it to a synthetic glacier, before then assessing its ability to reproduce an observed record of lake fill-drain cycles in Greenland. Our results match a 17-year record of flood timing but underpredicts peak discharge likely because we are missing certain physical processes. Our results hold promise for simulating jökulhlaups.
Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Sarah L. Greenwood, Mathieu Morlighem, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 20, 3599–3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3599-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3599-2026, 2026
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Computer models used to predict future change of the Greenland Ice Sheet are uncertain, especially in how they represent iceberg calving. We compare several calving approaches by testing model results against satellite observations of changes at three unique floating ice shelves in Greenland. We then extend the simulations to the year 2300 to explore future ice loss, finding that warming of the atmosphere or ocean is more important than the choice of calving method.
Mansa Krishna, Gong Cheng, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 20, 3533–3558, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3533-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3533-2026, 2026
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Estimates of the Greenland Ice Sheet’s contribution to sea level rise are affected by uncertainties in the bed topography. Traditional, physics-based methods for inferring the bed elevation are limited to fast-flowing areas of the ice sheet. We use machine learning models informed with two physical laws to infer the bed elevation for different regions in Greenland, showing that this method can be used to infer the bed elevation in slower-moving, sparsely surveyed regions of the ice sheet.
Ilaria Santin, Huw J. Horgan, Raphael Moser, Nanna Bjørnholt Karlsson, Faezeh M. Nick, Andreas Vieli, Anja Rutishauser, Hansruedi Maurer, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 20, 3435–3441, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3435-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3435-2026, 2026
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Ice thickness near Greenland’s coast is still poorly measured, yet it is vital for predicting sea level rise. We flew a helicopter ice-penetrating radar over three outlet glaciers in southern Greenland and mapped the glacier bed where basal reflections were clear. We measured ice up to about 340 meters thick, with reliable penetration typically to about 300 meters, providing new constraints that can improve regional bed maps.
Daniel Abele, Thomas Kleiner, Yannic Fischler, Benjamin Uekermann, Gerasimos Chourdakis, Mathieu Morlighem, Achim Basermann, Christian Bischof, Hans-Joachim Bungartz, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 5019–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5019-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5019-2026, 2026
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Accurate simulations of ice-sheet evolution require a multi-physics approach that captures the interaction between glaciers and their subglacial environment. For this purpose, we have extended ice sheet and subglacial hydrology models using a coupling library. This simplifies coupled Earth systems simulations by allowing models to interact with minimal effort and computational expense. We have evaluated the solution regarding performance and choice of coupling library.
James R. Jordan, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Abele, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jowan M. Barnes, Tijn Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Javier Blasco, Gong Cheng, Youngmin Choi, Stephen L. Cornford, Cruz Garcia-Molina, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Angelika Humbert, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Marisa Montoya, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Mathieu Morlighem, Tyler Pelle, Alexander Robinson, Martin Rückamp, Hélène Seroussi, Yanmei Tian, Luisa Wagner, Roderick S. W. van de Wal, Liyun Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, 2026
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Ice calving is a recent inclusion in ice sheet models and there has not been a systematic test of how well it has been implemented. We show that models can accurately represent a given rate of ice calving, properties at the ice front evolve smoothly during calving, and that there are no consistent differences in ice behaviour between various approaches to representing calving in numerical ice models. This gives us confidence in their ability for use in sea level rise prediction simulations.
Ankit Pramanik, Sarah L. Greenwood, Mathieu Morlighem, Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Richard Gyllencreutz, and Carl Regnéll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-172, 2026
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Ice sheet/glacier retreat is driving expansion of glacial lakes impounded at the ice margin. Using an ice sheet model, we find that lake filling and drainage causes systematic changes to glacier thickness, velocity and mass loss. Rising lake levels dramatically increase mass loss as the ice margin becomes buoyant, while rapid lake drainage can drive crevassing and destabilise the margin. Steady lake drainage, in contrast, has a stabilising effect, and may mitigate mass loss and flood hazards.
Matthew Davis Tankersley, Huw Horgan, Fabio Caratori Tontini, and Kirsty Tinto
The Cryosphere, 19, 6827–6864, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6827-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6827-2025, 2025
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We studied how gravity data can be used to estimate the shape of the seafloor beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves, where direct measurements are difficult. Using computer models based on real data, we tested when this method works well and where it has limits. We found that it could greatly improve seafloor maps for most ice shelves with high-quality gravity data. Better models of the seafloor will help us understand how ocean water melts ice from below, affecting future sea level rise.
Alexandra Gossart, Alena Malyarenko, Liv Cornelissen, Craig Stevens, Una Miller, Christopher J. Zappa, Nancy Luca, Pasquale Castagno, and Giorgio Budillon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332, 2025
Preprint archived
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Polynyas are areas of open water that form within the sea ice during the Antarctic winter. They occur along the coastline and act as hotspots for air–sea interactions and sea-ice formation. We use the P-SKRIPSv2 model to simulate air–sea–ice–ocean interactions in the Ross Sea. Model results are compared with observations, and we test how changes in air–sea–ice coupling affect the system. Our findings show that P-SKRIPSv2 provides a valuable tool to study polynyasa and understand their dynamics.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Vincent Charnay, Daniel P. Lowry, Elizabeth D. Keller, and Abha Sood
Clim. Past, 21, 1611–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1611-2025, 2025
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Our study evaluates models' ability to simulate Antarctic regional climate features by comparing available Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project models to sets of Last Millennium Antarctic proxy-based reconstructions most relevant to the surface mass balance. We later look at their implications for 21st-century sea level rise. The best-scoring model predicts a higher surface mass balance by 2100, which implies stronger mitigation of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 3631–3653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, 2025
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Understanding how ice sheets have changed in the past can allow us to make better predictions for the future. By running a state-of-the-art model of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland, over the past 12 000 years we find that both a warming atmosphere and the ocean play a key role in the evolution of the glacier. Our conclusions stress that accurately quantifying the ice sheet’s interactions with the ocean is required to predict future changes and reliable sea level rise estimates.
Gong Cheng, Mansa Krishna, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5311–5327, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5311-2025, 2025
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Predicting ice sheet contributions to sea level rise is challenging due to limited data and uncertainties in key processes. Traditional models require complex methods that lack flexibility. We developed PINNICLE (Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Ice and CLimatE), an open-source Python library that integrates machine learning with physical laws to improve ice sheet modeling. By combining data and physics, PINNICLE enhances predictions and adaptability, providing a powerful tool for climate research and sea level rise projections.
Felicity A. Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2695–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, 2025
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Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades, in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low- and a high-emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high-emissions future lead to a sea level rise contribution that is an order of magnitude higher than under a low-emissions future.
Younghyun Koo, Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and Maryam Rahnemoonfar
The Cryosphere, 19, 2583–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2583-2025, 2025
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Calving, the breaking of ice bodies from the terminus of a glacier, plays an important role in the mass losses of Greenland ice sheets. However, calving parameters have been poorly understood because of the intensive computational demands of traditional numerical models. To address this issue and find the optimal calving parameter that best represents real observations, we develop deep-learning emulators based on graph neural network architectures.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Aaron Barth, Kelsey Barker, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 19, 1559–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1559-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum conditions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) across the northeastern United States. A complex thermal history existed for the LIS that caused high erosion across most of the NE USA but prevented erosion across high-elevation mountain peaks and areas where ice flow was slow. This has implications for geologic studies which rely on the erosional nature of the LIS to reconstruct its glacial history and landscape evolution.
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Alena Malyarenko, Hong Zhang, Ou Wang, Matthis Auger, Yafei Nie, Ian Fenty, Matthew Mazloff, Armin Köhl, and Dimitris Menemenlis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8613–8638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8613-2024, 2024
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Global- and basin-scale ocean reanalyses are becoming easily accessible. However, such ocean reanalyses are optimized for their entire model domains and their ability to simulate the Southern Ocean requires evaluation. We conduct intercomparison analyses of Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm)-based ocean reanalyses. They generally perform well for the open ocean, but open-ocean temporal variability and Antarctic continental shelves require improvements.
Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6227–6247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, 2024
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We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the stabilization and reinitialization techniques currently employed in ISSM and Úa for solving level-set equations, specifically those related to the dynamic representation of moving ice fronts within numerical ice sheet models. Our results demonstrate that the streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method outperforms the other approaches. We found that excessively frequent reinitialization can lead to exceptionally high errors in simulations.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
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This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Anjali Sandip, Ludovic Räss, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 899–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, 2024
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We solve momentum balance for unstructured meshes to predict ice flow for real glaciers using a pseudo-transient method on graphics processing units (GPUs) and compare it to a standard central processing unit (CPU) implementation. We justify the GPU implementation by applying the price-to-performance metric for up to million-grid-point spatial resolutions. This study represents a first step toward leveraging GPU processing power, enabling more accurate polar ice discharge predictions.
Youngmin Choi, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Alex Gardner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5499–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, 2023
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Ice sheet models are often initialized using snapshot observations of present-day conditions, but this approach has limitations in capturing the transient evolution of the system. To more accurately represent the accelerating changes in glaciers, we employed time-dependent data assimilation. We found that models calibrated with the transient data better capture past trends and more accurately reproduce changes after the calibration period, even with limited observations.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
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We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
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Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Rui Sun, and Mario Krapp
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3355–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3355-2023, 2023
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Simultaneous modelling of ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere in coupled models is critical for understanding all of the processes that happen in the Antarctic. Here we have developed a coupled model for the Ross Sea, P-SKRIPS, that conserves heat and mass between the ocean and sea ice model (MITgcm) and the atmosphere model (PWRF). We have shown that our developments reduce the model drift, which is important for long-term simulations. P-SKRIPS shows good results in modelling coastal polynyas.
Francesca Baldacchino, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, and Alena Malyarenko
The Cryosphere, 16, 3723–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, 2022
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf will evolve in a warming world is important to the future stability of Antarctica. It remains unclear what changes could drive the largest mass loss in the future and where places are most likely to trigger larger mass losses. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing that the RIS is sensitive to changes in environmental and glaciological controls at regions which are currently experiencing changes. These regions need to be monitored in a warming world.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Yannic Fischler, Martin Rückamp, Christian Bischof, Vadym Aizinger, Mathieu Morlighem, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3753–3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, 2022
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Ice sheet models are used to simulate the changes of ice sheets in future but are currently often run in coarse resolution and/or with neglecting important physics to make them affordable in terms of computational costs. We conducted a study simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet in high resolution and adequate physics to test where the ISSM ice sheet code is using most time and what could be done to improve its performance for future computer architectures that allow massive parallel computing.
Molly O. Patterson, Richard H. Levy, Denise K. Kulhanek, Tina van de Flierdt, Huw Horgan, Gavin B. Dunbar, Timothy R. Naish, Jeanine Ash, Alex Pyne, Darcy Mandeno, Paul Winberry, David M. Harwood, Fabio Florindo, Francisco J. Jimenez-Espejo, Andreas Läufer, Kyu-Cheul Yoo, Osamu Seki, Paolo Stocchi, Johann P. Klages, Jae Il Lee, Florence Colleoni, Yusuke Suganuma, Edward Gasson, Christian Ohneiser, José-Abel Flores, David Try, Rachel Kirkman, Daleen Koch, and the SWAIS 2C Science Team
Sci. Dril., 30, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-30-101-2022, 2022
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How much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 °C is currently unknown. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica’s future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed in order to better forecast the size and timing of future changes.
Thomas Frank, Henning Åkesson, Basile de Fleurian, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kerim H. Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 16, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, 2022
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The shape of a fjord can promote or inhibit glacier retreat in response to climate change. We conduct experiments with a synthetic setup under idealized conditions in a numerical model to study and quantify the processes involved. We find that friction between ice and fjord is the most important factor and that it is possible to directly link ice discharge and grounding line retreat to fjord topography in a quantitative way.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Douglas Brinkerhoff
The Cryosphere, 16, 179–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, 2022
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Projecting the future evolution of Greenland and Antarctica and their potential contribution to sea level rise often relies on computer simulations carried out by numerical ice sheet models. Here we present a new vertically integrated ice sheet model and assess its performance using different benchmarks. The new model shows results comparable to a three-dimensional model at relatively lower computational cost, suggesting that it is an excellent alternative for long-term simulations.
Jamey Stutz, Andrew Mackintosh, Kevin Norton, Ross Whitmore, Carlo Baroni, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Richard S. Jones, Greg Balco, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Stefano Casale, Jae Il Lee, Yeong Bae Seong, Robert McKay, Lauren J. Vargo, Daniel Lowry, Perry Spector, Marcus Christl, Susan Ivy Ochs, Luigia Di Nicola, Maria Iarossi, Finlay Stuart, and Tom Woodruff
The Cryosphere, 15, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5447-2021, 2021
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Understanding the long-term behaviour of ice sheets is essential to projecting future changes due to climate change. In this study, we use rocks deposited along the margin of the David Glacier, one of the largest glacier systems in the world, to reveal a rapid thinning event initiated over 7000 years ago and endured for ~ 2000 years. Using physical models, we show that subglacial topography and ocean heat are important drivers for change along this sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for...
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