Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 13 Feb 2024
| 13 Feb 2024
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Qinggang Gao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Louise C. Sime
Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Alison J. McLaren
Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmosphere, Ice and Climate, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Emilie Capron
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Rachael H. Rhodes
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Xiaoxu Shi
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Martin Werner
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Related authors
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Qinggang Gao, Christian Zeman, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Daniela C. A. Lima, Peter Molnar, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 189–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a vortex identification algorithm for realistic atmospheric simulations. The algorithm enabled us to obtain a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for a 10-year simulation period. This first objective climatological analysis of vortex streets shows consistency with observed atmospheric conditions. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September.
Zanna Chase, Karen E. Kohfeld, Amy Leventer, David Lund, Xavier Crosta, Laurie Menviel, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jacob Jones, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Elisabeth Sikes, Louise C. Sime, and Luke Skinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of recent dramatic declines in Antarctic sea ice on the Earth system are uncertain. We reviewed how sea ice affects ocean circulation, ice sheets, winds, and the carbon cycle by considering theory and modern observations alongside paleo-proxy reconstructions. We found evidence for connections between sea ice and these systems but also conflicting results, which point to missing knowledge. Our work highlights the complex role of sea ice in the Earth system.
Anni Zhao, Chris Brierley, Venni Arra, Xiaoxu Shi, and Yongyun Hu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3140, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation has large impacts on the European climate, whose future behaviour remains uncertain. We assess the NAO response in three past experiments (midHolocene, lig127k, lgm) and an abrupt quadrupled CO2 scenario (abrupt4xCO2). Our results show that NAO weakens (enhances) in response to cooling (warming), while it is not sensitive to orbital configurations. The associated teleconnections change consistently with the theory and are sensitive to the change in NAO amplitude.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
Clim. Past, 21, 1263–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
For 1 century, the hemispheric summer insolation is proposed as a key pacemaker of astronomical climate change. However, an increasing number of geologic records reveal that the low-latitude hydrological cycle shows asynchronous precessional evolutions that are very often out of phase with the summer insolation. Here, we propose that the astronomically driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by summer insolation but by shifting perihelion.
Georgina Falster, Gab Abramowitz, Sanaa Hobeichi, Cath Hughes, Pauline Treble, Nerilie J. Abram, Michael I. Bird, Alexandre Cauquoin, Bronwyn Dixon, Russell Drysdale, Chenhui Jin, Niels Munksgaard, Bernadette Proemse, Jonathan J. Tyler, Martin Werner, and Carol Tadros
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2458, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We used a random forest approach to produce estimates of monthly precipitation stable isotope variability from 1962–2023, at high resolution across the entire Australian continent. Comprehensive skill and sensitivity testing shows that our random forest models skilfully predict precipitation isotope values in places and times that observations are not available. We make all outputs publicly available, facilitating use in fields from ecology and hydrology to archaeology and forensic science.
Titouan Tcheng, Elise Fourré, Christophe Leroy-Dos-Santos, Frédéric Parrenin, Emmanuel Le Meur, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Roxanne Jacob, Bénédicte Minster, Olivier Magand, Cécile Agosta, Niels Dutrievoz, Vincent Favier, Léa Baubant, Coralie Lassalle-Bernard, Mathieu Casado, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Laurent Arnaud, Bruno Jourdain, Ghislain Picard, Marie Bouchet, and Amaëlle Landais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2863, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Studying Antarctic ice cores is crucial to assess past climate changes, as they hold historical climate data. This study examines multiple ice cores from three sites in coastal Adélie Land to see if combining cores improves data interpretability. It does at two sites, but at a third, wind-driven snow layer mixing limited benefits. We show that using multiple ice cores from one location can better uncover climate history, especially in areas with less wind disturbance.
Thibaut Caley, Niclas Rieger, Martin Werner, Claire Waelbroeck, Héloïse Barathieu, Tamara Happé, and Didier M. Roche
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2459, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
Density of seawater is a critical property that controls ocean dynamics. We developed the use of the δ18Oc of planktonic foraminifera as a surface paleodensity proxy for the whole ocean using Bayesian regression models calibrated to annual surface density. We reconstructed annual surface density during the last glacial maximum and late Holocene time periods. These results will be used to evaluate numerical climate models in their ability to simulate past ocean surface density.
Felix Pollak, Frédéric Parrenin, Emilie Capron, Zanna Chase, Lenneke Jong, and Etienne Legrain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2233, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) marked a shift towards extended glacial periods and amplitudes, while its underlying mechanisms are still disputed. Here, we present a new conceptual model capable of simulating the global ice volume over the last 2.6 Ma and reconstructing the MPT. We find that a long-lasting, gradual trend in the climate system is most favourable in reconstructing the MPT and that for the last 900 ka, precession was more important for glacial terminations than obliquity.
Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for about 25 % of the poleward ocean heat transport. Currently, the AMOC strength is mostly calculated in depth space (z-AMOC). However, we argue that, in warmer climates, the AMOC should be calculated in density space (ρ-AMOC). We performed simulations with CO2 forcing of 280 ppmv (PI) and 1120 ppmv of (4xCO2) and find that ρ-AMOC provides more physical and meaningful information about the AMOC in warmer climates.
Felix S. L. Ng, Rachael H. Rhodes, Tyler J. Fudge, and Eric W. Wolff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1566, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Impurity diffusion in ice causes loss of climate history. We give a new method of finding the diffusion rate from ice-core records. Its use on sulphate data from the EPICA Dome C core reveals rapid diffusion in snow that suggests H2SO4 vapour diffusion in air pores, and much slower diffusion in the ice below that indicates signal relocation between crystal interfaces. We estimate a maximum sulphate diffusion length of 2 cm for ice 1–2 Myr old sought by the ice-coring projects on Little Dome C.
Nathan Stevenard, Émilie Capron, Étienne Legrain, and Claire Coutelle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1928, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To better understand climate change in past warm periods, we studied global ocean temperature during an interglacial period about 300,000 years ago. Combining 98 records on common timeline, we found regional differences in the timing and amplitude of changes, which smoothed the global signal. We also show that the deglacial warming rate was about three times lower than today's global warming rate.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Inès Ollivier, Thomas Lauwers, Niels Dutrievoz, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Elise Fourré, Christophe Genthon, Olivier Jossoud, Frédéric Prié, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Amaëlle Landais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-35, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel 2.5-month record of the atmospheric water vapour isotopic composition during the austral summer 2023–2024 at Concordia Station on the Antarctic Plateau. We show that two independent laser spectrometers accurately record the diurnal variability of the atmospheric water vapour 𝛿18O, 𝛿D, and d-excess. We compare the measurements against outputs of the isotope-enabled general circulation model LMDZ6-iso to show how the data can be used to evaluate such models.
Piers Larkman, Rachael H. Rhodes, Nicolas Stoll, Carlo Barbante, and Pascal Bohleber
The Cryosphere, 19, 1373–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1373-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1373-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Impurities in ice cores can be preferentially located at the boundaries between crystals of ice, impacting the interpretation of high-resolution data collected from ice core samples. Through use of a modelling framework, we demonstrate that one-dimensional signals can be significantly affected by this association, meaning high-resolution measurements must be carefully designed. Accounting for this effect is important for interpreting ice core data, especially for deep ice samples.
Ida Haven, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Laura J. Dietrich, Sonja Wahl, Jason E. Box, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, Alun Hubbard, Stephan T. Kral, Joachim Reuder, and Maurice Van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Three independent Eddy-Covariance measurement systems deployed on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet are compared. Using this dataset, we evaluate the reproducibility and quantify the differences between the systems. The fidelity of two regional climate models in capturing the seasonal variability in the latent and sensible heat flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere is assessed. We identify differences between observations and model simulations, especially during the winter period.
Pascal Bohleber, Nicolas Stoll, Piers Larkman, Rachael H. Rhodes, and David Clases
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-355, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To avoid misinterpretation of impurity signals in ice cores, post-depositional changes need to be identified. Peak broadening with depth observed especially for S was previously related to diffusion in ice veins, but the exact physical mechanisms remain unclear. Our two-dimensional impurity maps by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry were extended for the first time to S and Cl and support a view on diffusion not only through veins but also along grain boundaries.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Xavier Faïn, Sophie Szopa, Vaishali Naïk, Patricia Martinerie, David M. Etheridge, Rachael H. Rhodes, Cathy M. Trudinger, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, and Philip Place
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1105–1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) plays a crucial role in the atmosphere's oxidizing capacity. In this study, we analyse how historical (1850–2014) [CO] outputs from state-of-the-art global chemistry–climate models over Greenland and Antarctica are able to capture both absolute values and trends recorded in multi-site ice archives. A disparity in [CO] growth rates emerges in the Northern Hemisphere between models and observations from 1920–1975 CE, possibly linked to uncertainties in CO emission factors.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Luca Alexander Müller-Ißberner, Elisabeth Dietze, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4011, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4011, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using model simulations, we show that the larger seasonal temperature amplitude during the mid Holocene and last interglaical led to marked surficial thaw during warm summers, while cold winters allowed for permafrost persistence at depth and more active thermal contraction cracking. We argue that past interglacial climates have limited suitability as analogues for future permafrost dynamics, for which a trajectory of unprecedented thaw magnitude since at least 400000 years is anticipated.
Inès Ollivier, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Laurent Arnaud, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giuliano Dreossi, Christophe Genthon, Bénédicte Minster, Ghislain Picard, Martin Werner, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 19, 173–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-173-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-173-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The role of post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface on the water stable isotope signal measured in polar ice cores is not fully understood. Using field observations and modelling results, we show that the original precipitation isotopic signal at Dome C, East Antarctica, is modified by post-depositional processes and provide the first quantitative estimation of their mean impact on the isotopic signal observed in the snow.
Daniele Zannoni, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Harald Sodemann, Iris Thurnherr, Cyrille Flamant, Patrick Chazette, Julien Totems, Martin Werner, and Myriam Raybaut
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
High resolution airborne observations reveal that mixing between the free troposphere and surface evapotranspiration flux primarly modulates the water vapor isotopic composition in the lower troposphere. Water vapor isotopes structure variations occur on the scale of 100s of m, underlying the utility of stable isotopes for studying microscale atmospheric dynamics. This study also provides the basis for better validation of water vapor isotopes remote sensing retrievals with surface observations.
Frédéric Parrenin, Marie Bouchet, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Ellen Corrick, Russell Drysdale, Kenji Kawamura, Amaëlle Landais, Robert Mulvaney, Ikumi Oyabu, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8735–8750, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleochrono-1.1 probabilistic dating model allows users to derive a common and optimized chronology for several paleoclimatic sites from various archives (ice cores, speleothems, marine cores, lake cores, etc.). It combines prior sedimentation scenarios with chronological information such as dated horizons, dated intervals, stratigraphic links and (for ice cores) Δdepth observations. Paleochrono-1.1 is available under an open-source license.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Sentia Goursaud Oger, Louise C. Sime, and Max Holloway
Clim. Past, 20, 2539–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic ice cores provide information about past temperatures. Here, we run new climate model simulations, including stable water isotopes for the historical period. Across one-third of Antarctica, there is no strong connection between isotopes and temperature and a weak connection for most of the rest of Antarctica. This disconnect between isotopes and temperature is largely driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our results are helpful for temperature reconstructions from ice core records.
Helene Hoffmann, Jason Day, Rachael H. Rhodes, Mackenzie Grieman, Jack Humby, Isobel Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Robert Mulvaney, Sally Gibson, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 4993–5013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores are archives of past atmospheric conditions. In deep and old ice, the layers containing this information get thinned to the millimetre scale or below. We installed a setup for high-resolution (182 μm) chemical impurity measurements in ice cores using the laser ablation technique at the University of Cambridge. In a first application to the Skytrain ice core from Antarctica, we discuss the potential to detect fine-layered structures in ice up to an age of 26 000 years.
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Yvan Bollet-Quivogne, Piers Barnes, Mirko Severi, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 20, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Some ionic components slowly move through glacier ice by diffusion, but the rate of this diffusion, its exact mechanism(s), and the factors that might influence it are poorly understood. In this study, we model how peaks in sulfate, deposited at Dome C on the Antarctic ice sheet after volcanic eruptions, change with depth and time. We find that the sulfate diffusion rate in ice is relatively fast in young ice near the surface, but the rate is markedly reduced over time.
Giuliano Dreossi, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Daniele Zannoni, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Mathieu Casado, Amaëlle Landais, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giampietro Casasanta, Massimo Del Guasta, Vittoria Posocco, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 18, 3911–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes have been extensively used to reconstruct past temperatures, with precipitation representing the input signal of the isotopic records in ice cores. We present a 10-year record of stable isotopes in daily precipitation at Concordia Station: this is the longest record for inland Antarctica and represents a benchmark for quantifying post-depositional processes and improving the paleoclimate interpretation of ice cores.
Romilly Harris Stuart, Amaëlle Landais, Laurent Arnaud, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Marie Dumont, Quentin Libois, Robert Mulvaney, Anaïs Orsi, Ghislain Picard, Frédéric Prié, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Barbara Stenni, and Patricia Martinerie
The Cryosphere, 18, 3741–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core δO2/N2 records are useful dating tools due to their local insolation pacing. A precise understanding of the physical mechanism driving this relationship, however, remain ambiguous. By compiling data from 15 polar sites, we find a strong dependence of mean δO2/N2 on accumulation rate and temperature in addition to the well-documented insolation dependence. Snowpack modelling is used to investigate which physical properties drive the mechanistic dependence on these local parameters.
Michael S. Town, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, Melanie Behrens, Tyler R. Jones, and Arny Sveinbjornsdottir
The Cryosphere, 18, 3653–3683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A polar snow isotope dataset from northeast Greenland shows that snow changes isotopically after deposition. Summer snow sometimes enriches in oxygen-18, making it seem warmer than it actually was when the snow fell. Deuterium excess sometimes changes after deposition, making the snow seem to come from warmer, closer, or more humid places. After a year of aging, deuterium excess of summer snow layers always increases. Reinterpretation of deuterium excess used in climate models is necessary.
Hans Christian Steen-Larsen and Daniele Zannoni
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4391–4409, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4391-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The water vapor generation module is completely scalable, allowing autonomous calibrations to use N standards and providing integration times only restricted by sample availability. We document improved reproducibility in 17O-excess liquid measurements. This module makes spectroscopy measurements comparable to mass spectrometry. We document that the vapor generation module can be used to analyze instrument performance and for vapor isotope calibration during field campaign measurements.
Nicolaj Hansen, Andrew Orr, Xun Zou, Fredrik Boberg, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Ella Gilbert, Peter L. Langen, Matthew A. Lazzara, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Ruth Price, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Stuart Webster
The Cryosphere, 18, 2897–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated a melt event over the Ross Ice Shelf. We use regional climate models and a firn model to simulate the melt and compare the results with satellite data. We find that the firn model aligned well with observed melt days in certain parts of the ice shelf. The firn model had challenges accurately simulating the melt extent in the western sector. We identified potential reasons for these discrepancies, pointing to limitations in the models related to representing the cloud properties.
Dominique Raynaud, Qiuzhen Yin, Emilie Capron, Zhipeng Wu, Frédéric Parrenin, André Berger, and Vladimir Lipenkov
Clim. Past, 20, 1269–1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1269-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a lack of reconstructions from Antarctic ice cores of the temperature during the summer, a critical season in terms of solar energy received, preventing a good understanding of the link between Antarctic past climate and astronomically induced insolation changes. Here, the variations in total air content in an Antarctic ice core are found to be correlated to local summer temperatures simulated with a climate model. This tracer can be used to reconstruct past local summer temperatures.
Amaelle Landais, Cécile Agosta, Françoise Vimeux, Olivier Magand, Cyrielle Solis, Alexandre Cauquoin, Niels Dutrievoz, Camille Risi, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Olivier Cattani, Olivier Jossoud, Bénédicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Mathieu Casado, Aurélien Dommergue, Yann Bertrand, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4611–4634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We show 11 periods associated with abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18Ο. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Accurately representing the water isotopic signal during these cold fronts is a real challenge for the atmospheric components of Earth system models equipped with water isotopes.
Alexandra M. Zuhr, Sonja Wahl, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Maria Hörhold, Hanno Meyer, Vasileios Gkinis, and Thomas Laepple
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1861–1874, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1861-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1861-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present stable water isotope data from the accumulation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. A spatial sampling scheme covering 39 m and three depth layers was carried out between 14 May and 3 August 2018. The data suggest spatial and temporal variability related to meteorological conditions, such as wind-driven snow redistribution and vapour–snow exchange processes. The data can be used to study the formation of the stable water isotopes signal, which is seen as a climate proxy.
Moein Mellat, Amy R. Macfarlane, Camilla F. Brunello, Martin Werner, Martin Schneebeli, Ruzica Dadic, Stefanie Arndt, Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen, Jeffrey M. Welker, and Hanno Meyer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-719, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, utilizing data from the Arctic MOSAiC expedition, reveals how snow on Arctic sea ice changes due to weather conditions. By analyzing snow samples collected over a year, we found differences in snow layers that tell us about their origins and how they've been affected by the environment. We discovered variations in snow and vapour that reflect the influence of weather patterns and surface processes like wind and sublimation.
Laura J. Dietrich, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The contribution of the humidity flux to the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is uncertain. Here, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR using a multi-annual dataset of eddy covariance measurements and bulk estimates of the humidity flux. The humidity flux largely contributes to the summer surface mass balance (SMB) in the accumulation zone, indicating its potential importance for the annual SMB in a warming climate.
Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Benedicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Leila Petit, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 17, 5241–5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the face of global warming, understanding the changing water cycle and temperatures in polar regions is crucial. These factors directly impact the balance of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic. By studying the composition of water vapor, we gain insights into climate variations. Our 2-year study at Dumont d’Urville station, Adélie Land, offers valuable data to refine models. Additionally, we demonstrate how modeling aids in interpreting signals from ice core samples in the region.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Xavier Faïn, David M. Etheridge, Kévin Fourteau, Patricia Martinerie, Cathy M. Trudinger, Rachael H. Rhodes, Nathan J. Chellman, Ray L. Langenfelds, Joseph R. McConnell, Mark A. J. Curran, Edward J. Brook, Thomas Blunier, Grégory Teste, Roberto Grilli, Anthony Lemoine, William T. Sturges, Boris Vannière, Johannes Freitag, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 19, 2287–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a 3000-year record of carbon monoxide (CO) levels in the Southern Hemisphere's high latitudes by combining ice core and firn air measurements with modern direct atmospheric samples. Antarctica [CO] remained stable (–835 to 1500 CE), decreased during the Little Ice Age, and peaked around 1985 CE. Such evolution reflects stable biomass burning CO emissions before industrialization, followed by growth from CO anthropogenic sources, which decline after 1985 due to improved combustion.
Marie Bouchet, Amaëlle Landais, Antoine Grisart, Frédéric Parrenin, Frédéric Prié, Roxanne Jacob, Elise Fourré, Emilie Capron, Dominique Raynaud, Vladimir Ya Lipenkov, Marie-France Loutre, Thomas Extier, Anders Svensson, Etienne Legrain, Patricia Martinerie, Markus Leuenberger, Wei Jiang, Florian Ritterbusch, Zheng-Tian Lu, and Guo-Min Yang
Clim. Past, 19, 2257–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new federative chronology for five deep polar ice cores retrieves 800 000 years of past climate variations with improved accuracy. Precise ice core timescales are key to studying the mechanisms linking changes in the Earth’s orbit to the diverse climatic responses (temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations). To construct the chronology, new measurements from the oldest continuous ice core as well as glaciological modeling estimates were combined in a statistical model.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Robert Mulvaney, Eric W. Wolff, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Helene H. Hoffmann, Jack D. Humby, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Rachael H. Rhodes, Isobel F. Rowell, Frédéric Parrenin, Loïc Schmidely, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker, Marcus Christl, Raimund Muscheler, Amaelle Landais, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 19, 851–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-851-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an age scale for a new ice core drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise, an ice rise facing the Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Various measurements in the ice and air phases are used to match the ice core to other Antarctic cores that have already been dated, and a new age scale is constructed. The 651 m ice core includes ice that is confidently dated to 117 000–126 000 years ago, in the last interglacial. Older ice is found deeper down, but there are flow disturbances in the deeper ice.
Romilly Harris Stuart, Anne-Katrine Faber, Sonja Wahl, Maria Hörhold, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Kristian Vasskog, Melanie Behrens, Alexandra M. Zuhr, and Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
The Cryosphere, 17, 1185–1204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This empirical study uses continuous daily measurements from the Greenland Ice Sheet to document changes in surface snow properties. Consistent changes in snow isotopic composition are observed in the absence of deposition due to surface processes, indicating the isotopic signal of deposited precipitation is not always preserved. Our observations have potential implications for the interpretation of water isotopes in ice cores – historically assumed to reflect isotopic composition at deposition.
Andrew W. Seidl, Harald Sodemann, and Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 769–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is challenging to make field measurements of stable water isotopes in the Arctic. To this end, we present a modular stable-water-isotope analyzer profiling system. The system operated for a 2-week field campaign on Svalbard during the Arctic winter. We evaluate the system’s performance and analyze any potential impact that the field conditions might have had on the isotopic measurements and the system's ability to resolve isotope gradients in the lowermost layer of the atmosphere.
Qinggang Gao, Christian Zeman, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Daniela C. A. Lima, Peter Molnar, and Christoph Schär
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 189–211, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-189-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a vortex identification algorithm for realistic atmospheric simulations. The algorithm enabled us to obtain a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for a 10-year simulation period. This first objective climatological analysis of vortex streets shows consistency with observed atmospheric conditions. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September.
François Burgay, Rafael Pedro Fernández, Delia Segato, Clara Turetta, Christopher S. Blaszczak-Boxe, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Carlo Barbante, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, and Andrea Spolaor
The Cryosphere, 17, 391–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the first ice-core record of bromine (Br) in the Antarctic plateau. By the observation of the ice core and the application of atmospheric chemical models, we investigate the behaviour of bromine after its deposition into the snowpack, with interest in the effect of UV radiation change connected to the formation of the ozone hole, the role of volcanic deposition, and the possible use of Br to reconstruct past sea ice changes from ice core collect in the inner Antarctic plateau.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Thomas Caton Harrison, Stavroula Biri, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John C. King, Elizabeth C. Kent, Étienne Vignon, and John Turner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1415–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Easterly winds encircle Antarctica, impacting sea ice and helping drive ocean currents which shield ice shelves from warmer waters. Reanalysis datasets give us our most complete picture of how these winds behave. In this paper we use satellite data, surface measurements and weather balloons to test how realistic recent reanalysis estimates are. The winds are generally accurate, especially in the most recent of the datasets, but important short-term variations are often misrepresented.
Jiajia Wang, Hongxi Pang, Shuangye Wu, Spruce W. Schoenemann, Ryu Uemura, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Summer Rupper, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-384, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopic observations in surface snow over Antarctica provide a basis for validating isotopic models and interpreting Antarctic ice core records. This study presents a new compilation of Antarctic surface snow isotopic dataset based on published and unpublished sources. The database has a wide range of potential applications in studying spatial distribution of water isotopes, model validation, and reconstruction and interpretation of Antarctic ice core records.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Janica C. Bühler, Josefine Axelsson, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Jens Fohlmeister, Allegra N. LeGrande, Madhavan Midhun, Jesper Sjolte, Martin Werner, Kei Yoshimura, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 18, 1625–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We collected and standardized the output of five isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium and assess differences and similarities to records from a global speleothem database. Modeled isotope variations mostly arise from temperature differences. While lower-resolution speleothems do not capture extreme changes to the extent of models, they show higher variability on multi-decadal timescales. As no model excels in all comparisons, we advise a multi-model approach where possible.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Xavier Faïn, Rachael H. Rhodes, Philip Place, Vasilii V. Petrenko, Kévin Fourteau, Nathan Chellman, Edward Crosier, Joseph R. McConnell, Edward J. Brook, Thomas Blunier, Michel Legrand, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 18, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-631-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon monoxide (CO) is a regulated pollutant and one of the key components determining the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. In this study, we analyzed five ice cores from Greenland at high resolution for CO concentrations by coupling laser spectrometry with continuous melting. By combining these new datasets, we produced an upper-bound estimate of past atmospheric CO abundance since preindustrial times for the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, covering the period from 1700 to 1957 CE.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Matthew Chadwick, Claire S. Allen, Louise C. Sime, Xavier Crosta, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 18, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Algae preserved in marine sediments have allowed us to reconstruct how much winter sea ice was present around Antarctica during a past time period (130 000 years ago) when the climate was warmer than today. The patterns of sea-ice increase and decrease vary between different parts of the Southern Ocean. The Pacific sector has a largely stable sea-ice extent, whereas the amount of sea ice in the Atlantic sector is much more variable with bigger decreases and increases than other regions.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Kevin S. Rozmiarek, Bruce H. Vaughn, Tyler R. Jones, Valerie Morris, William B. Skorski, Abigail G. Hughes, Jack Elston, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, and Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7045–7067, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7045-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7045-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have designed an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sampling platform for operation in extreme polar environments that is capable of sampling atmospheric water vapor for subsequent measurement of water isotopes. During flight, we measure location, temperature, humidity, and pressure to determine the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) using algorithms, allowing for strategic decision-making by the pilot to collect samples in glass flasks contained in the nose cone of the UAV.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Nele Lamping, Juliane Müller, Jens Hefter, Gesine Mollenhauer, Christian Haas, Xiaoxu Shi, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Gerrit Lohmann, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 17, 2305–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed biomarker concentrations on surface sediment samples from the Antarctic continental margin. Highly branched isoprenoids and GDGTs are used for reconstructing recent sea-ice distribution patterns and ocean temperatures respectively. We compared our biomarker-based results with data obtained from satellite observations and estimated from a numerical model and find reasonable agreements. Further, we address caveats and provide recommendations for future investigations.
Abigail G. Hughes, Sonja Wahl, Tyler R. Jones, Alexandra Zuhr, Maria Hörhold, James W. C. White, and Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
The Cryosphere, 15, 4949–4974, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4949-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water isotope records in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores are a valuable proxy for paleoclimate reconstruction and are traditionally thought to primarily reflect precipitation input. However,
post-depositional processes are hypothesized to contribute to the isotope climate signal. In this study we use laboratory experiments, field experiments, and modeling to show that sublimation and vapor–snow isotope exchange can rapidly influence the isotopic composition of the snowpack.
Alexandra M. Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Maria Hörhold, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 15, 4873–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4873-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Firn and ice cores are used to infer past temperatures. However, the imprint of the climatic signal in stable water isotopes is influenced by depositional modifications. We present and use a photogrammetry structure-from-motion approach and find variability in the amount, the timing, and the location of snowfall. Depositional modifications of the surface are observed, leading to mixing of snow from different snowfall events and spatial locations and thus creating noise in the proxy record.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
Clim. Past, 17, 1685–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Thomas Münch, Martin Werner, and Thomas Laepple
Clim. Past, 17, 1587–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1587-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse Holocene climate model simulation data to find the locations of Antarctic ice cores which are best suited to reconstruct local- to regional-scale temperatures. We find that the spatial decorrelation scales of the temperature variations and of the noise from precipitation intermittency set an effective sampling length scale. Following this, a single core should be located at the
target site for the temperature reconstruction, and a second one optimally lies more than 500 km away.
Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Harald Sodemann, Julien Totems, Anne Monod, Elsa Dieudonné, Alexandre Baron, Andrew Seidl, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Pascal Doira, Amandine Durand, and Sylvain Ravier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10911–10937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10911-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10911-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding on the vertical structure of atmospheric water vapour above mountain lakes and to assess its link to the isotopic composition of the lake water and small-scale dynamics, the L-WAIVE field campaign was conducted in the Annecy valley in the French Alps in June 2019. Based on a synergy between ground-based, boat-borne, and airborne measuring platforms, significant gradients of isotopic content have been revealed at the transitions to the lake and to the free troposphere.
Sarah E. Parker, Sandy P. Harrison, Laia Comas-Bru, Nikita Kaushal, Allegra N. LeGrande, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional trends in the oxygen isotope (δ18O) composition of stalagmites reflect several climate processes. We compare stalagmite δ18O records from monsoon regions and model simulations to identify the causes of δ18O variability over the last 12 000 years, and between glacial and interglacial states. Precipitation changes explain the glacial–interglacial δ18O changes in all monsoon regions; Holocene trends are due to a combination of precipitation, atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Andrew Orr, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Edwin P. Gerber, Gareth J. Marshall, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis datasets combine observations and weather forecast simulations to create our best estimate of the state of the atmosphere and are important for climate monitoring. Differences in the technical details of these products mean that they may give different results. This study therefore examined how changes associated with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole are represented, which is one of the most important climate changes in recent decades, and showed that they were broadly consistent.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 331–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-331-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the strong variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Rüdiger Stein, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 17, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Maps and fields of near-sea-surface temperature differences between the past and present can be used to visualize and quantify climate changes and perform simulations with climate models. We used a statistical method to map sparse and scattered data for the Last Glacial Maximum time period (23 000 to 19 000 years before present) to a regular grid. The estimated global and tropical cooling would imply an equilibrium climate sensitivity in the lower to middle part of the currently accepted range.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Maria-Elena Vorrath, Juliane Müller, Lorena Rebolledo, Paola Cárdenas, Xiaoxu Shi, Oliver Esper, Thomas Opel, Walter Geibert, Práxedes Muñoz, Christian Haas, Gerhard Kuhn, Carina B. Lange, Gerrit Lohmann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 16, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We tested the applicability of the organic biomarker IPSO25 for sea ice reconstructions in the industrial era at the western Antarctic Peninsula. We successfully evaluated our data with satellite sea ice observations. The comparison with marine and ice core records revealed that sea ice interpretations must consider climatic and sea ice dynamics. Sea ice biomarker production is mainly influenced by the Southern Annular Mode, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation seems to have a minor impact.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Anders Svensson, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Thomas Blunier, Sune O. Rasmussen, Bo M. Vinther, Paul Vallelonga, Emilie Capron, Vasileios Gkinis, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Raimund Muscheler, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Frank Wilhelms, Thomas F. Stocker, Hubertus Fischer, Florian Adolphi, Tobias Erhardt, Michael Sigl, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Christo Buizert, Joseph R. McConnell, Mirko Severi, Robert Mulvaney, and Matthias Bigler
Clim. Past, 16, 1565–1580, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1565-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We identify signatures of large bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, which allows for a precise temporal alignment of the ice cores. Thereby the exact timing of unexplained, abrupt climatic changes occurring during the last glacial period can be determined in a global context. The study thus provides a step towards a full understanding of elements of the climate system that may also play an important role in the future.
Charles J. R. Williams, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Emilie Capron, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Joy S. Singarayer, Louise C. Sime, Daniel J. Lunt, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the geological past are an important tool to improve our understanding of climate change. We present results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK's climate model, the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (127 000 years ago). The simulations reproduce temperatures consistent with the pattern of incoming radiation. Model–data comparisons indicate that some regions (and some seasons) produce better matches to the data than others.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Alice Barthel, Cécile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of six models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Rosalyn Hatcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. Here, we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Hera Guðlaugsdóttir, Jesper Sjolte, Árný Erla Sveinbjörnsdóttir, and Hans Christian Steen-Larsen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-99, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In the North Atlantic four modes of climate variability dominate weather. Here we assess how these modes are affected after both equatorial and high latitude eruptions, known to influence temperature in the atmosphere. Main results show that the modes associated with extreme weather events tend to follow high latitude eruptions as opposed to equatorial eruptions. These modes have also become more frequent as a result of anthropogenic warming, providing an insight into the dominating mechanism.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell N. Drysdale, Philip L. Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3649–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3649-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. Key paleo-records for model-data comparison are also included.
Laia Comas-Bru, Sandy P. Harrison, Martin Werner, Kira Rehfeld, Nick Scroxton, Cristina Veiga-Pires, and SISAL working group members
Clim. Past, 15, 1557–1579, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled climate model to provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations and the optimum period for the modern observational baseline. We also illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation.
James A. Menking, Edward J. Brook, Sarah A. Shackleton, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Michael N. Dyonisius, Vasilii Petrenko, Joseph R. McConnell, Rachael H. Rhodes, Thomas K. Bauska, Daniel Baggenstos, Shaun Marcott, and Stephen Barker
Clim. Past, 15, 1537–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
An ice core from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, spans a period ~ 70 000 years ago when Earth entered the last ice age. Chemical analyses of the ice and air bubbles allow for an independent determination of the ages of the ice and gas bubbles. The difference between the age of the ice and the bubbles at any given depth, called ∆age, is unusually high in the Taylor Glacier core compared to the Taylor Dome ice core situated to the south. This implies a dramatic accumulation gradient between the sites.
Xin Yang, Markus M. Frey, Rachael H. Rhodes, Sarah J. Norris, Ian M. Brooks, Philip S. Anderson, Kouichi Nishimura, Anna E. Jones, and Eric W. Wolff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8407–8424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8407-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8407-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is a comprehensive model–data comparison aiming to evaluate the proposed mechanism of sea salt aerosol (SSA) production from blowing snow on sea ice. Some key parameters such as snow salinity and blowing-snow size distribution were constrained by data collected in the Weddell Sea. The good agreement between modelled SSA and the cruise data strongly indicates that sea ice surface is a large SSA source in polar regions, a process which has not been considered in current climate models.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Knut Christianson, and Christine Hvidberg
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 8, 149–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-8-149-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-8-149-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present the design considerations and deployment of an autonomous modular terrestrial rover for ice-sheet exploration that is inexpensive, easy to construct, and allows for instrumentation customization. The rover proved capable of driving over 20 km on a single charge with a drawbar pull of 250 N, which is sufficient to tow commercial ground-penetrating radars. Due to its low cost, low power requirements, and simple modular design, mass deployments of this rover design are practicable.
Tobias Erhardt, Emilie Capron, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Simon Schüpbach, Matthias Bigler, Florian Adolphi, and Hubertus Fischer
Clim. Past, 15, 811–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-811-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The cause of the rapid warming events documented in proxy records across the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial has been a long-standing puzzle in paleo-climate research. Here, we use high-resolution ice-core data from to cores in Greenland to investigate the progression during the onset of these events on multi-annual timescales to test their plausible triggers. We show that atmospheric circulation changes preceded the warming in Greenland and the collapse of the sea ice by a decade.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Suzanne Preunkert, Michel Legrand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We report new water stable isotope records from the first highly resolved firn core drilled in Adélie Land and covering 1998–2014. Using an updated database, we show that mean values are in line with the range of coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our record and local surface air temperature. Atmospheric back trajectories and isotopic simulations suggest that water stable isotopes in Adélie provide a fingerprint of the variability of atmospheric dynamics.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Amaëlle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Samuel Toucanne, Rachael Rhodes, Trevor Popp, Bo Vinther, Bénédicte Minster, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 14, 1405–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the last glacial–interglacial climate transition (120 000 to 10 000 years before present), Greenland climate and midlatitude North Atlantic climate and water cycle vary in phase over the succession of millennial events. We identify here one notable exception to this behavior with a decoupling unambiguously identified through a combination of water isotopic tracers measured in a Greenland ice core. The midlatitude moisture source becomes warmer and wetter at 16 200 years before present.
Laurie Menviel, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Andrea Dutton, Lev Tarasov, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Russell Drysdale, Philip Gibbard, Lauren Gregoire, Feng He, Ruza Ivanovic, Masa Kageyama, Kenji Kawamura, Amaelle Landais, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ikumi Oyabu, Polychronis Tzedakis, Eric Wolff, and Xu Zhang
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-106, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The penultimate deglaciation (~ 138–128 ka), which represents the transition into the Last Interglacial period, provides a framework to investigate the climate and environmental response to large changes in boundary conditions. Here, as part of the PAGES-PMIP working group on Quaternary Interglacials, we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation as well as a selection of paleo records for upcoming model-data comparisons.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Anaïs Orsi, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes are key tools to explore the links between climate variables and precipitation isotopic composition and thus to quantify past temperature changes using ice core records. Here, we evaluate the skills of ECHAM5-wiso to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of Antarctic climate and precipitation isotopic composition at the regional scale, thanks to a database of precipitation and ice core records.
Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Erich Fischer, Ben J. Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Harinarayan Krishnan, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, and Justin J. Wettstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the midlatitude atmospheric circulation response to 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming using modelling experiments run for the HAPPI project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis & Projected Impacts). While the chaotic nature of the atmospheric flow dominates in these low-end warming scenarios, some local changes emerge. Case studies explore precipitation impacts both for regions that dry (Mediterranean) and regions that get wetter (Europe, North American west coast).
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Xin Yang, Eric W. Wolff, Joseph R. McConnell, and Markus M. Frey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9417–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9417-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Sea salt aerosol comes from the open ocean or the sea ice surface. In the polar regions, this opens up the possibility of reconstructing sea ice history using sea salt recorded in ice cores. We use a chemical transport model to demonstrate that the sea ice source of aerosol is important in the Arctic. For the first time, we simulate realistic Greenland ice core sea salt in a process-based model. The importance of the sea ice source increases from south to north across the Greenland ice sheet.
Matthias Schneider, Christian Borger, Andreas Wiegele, Frank Hase, Omaira E. García, Eliezer Sepúlveda, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 507–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-507-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The characteristics of {H2O,δD} pair space-based remote sensing data depend on the atmospheric and surface conditions, which compromises their usage for model evaluation studies. This paper shows how the problem can be overcome by simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} remote sensing products for any given model atmosphere. The remote sensing retrieval simulator is freely provided as a MATLAB and Python routine.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Susanne Preunkert, Michel Fily, Hubert Gallée, Bruno Jourdain, Michel Legrand, Olivier Magand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty of sea level changes is a challenge. As Antarctica is the biggest water reservoir, it is necessary to know how it will contribute. To be able to simulate it, an understanding of past climate is to be achieved, for instance, by studying the ice cores. As climate change is different in different regions, observations are needed all over the continent. Studying an ice core in Adélie Land, we can conclude that there are no changes there at decadal scale over the period 1947–2007.
Olivia J. Maselli, Nathan J. Chellman, Mackenzie Grieman, Lawrence Layman, Joseph R. McConnell, Daniel Pasteris, Rachael H. Rhodes, Eric Saltzman, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 13, 39–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-39-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-39-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed two Greenland ice cores for methanesulfonate (MSA) and bromine (Br) and concluded that both species are suitable proxies for local sea ice conditions. Interpretation of the records reveals that there have been sharp declines in sea ice in these areas in the past 250 years. However, at both sites the Br record deviates from MSA during the industrial period, raising questions about the value of Br as a sea ice proxy during recent periods of high, industrial, atmospheric acid pollution.
Louise C. Sime, Dominic Hodgson, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Claire Allen, Bianca Perren, Stephen Roberts, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 12, 2241–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2241-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could explain large observed changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However there is considerable disagreement in modelled deglacial-warming jet shifts. Here multi-model output is used to show that expansion of sea ice during the glacial period likely caused a slight poleward shift and intensification in the westerly wind jet. Issues with model representation of the winds caused much of the previous disagreement.
Michael Deininger, Martin Werner, and Frank McDermott
Clim. Past, 12, 2127–2143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2127-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation)-related mechanisms that control winter precipitation stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients across Europe. The results show that past longitudinal stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope gradients in European rainfall stored in palaeoclimate archives (e.g. speleothems) can be used to infer the past winter NAO modes from its variations.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Emma J. Stone, Emilie Capron, Daniel J. Lunt, Antony J. Payne, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models forced only with greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters representative of the early Last Interglacial are unable to reproduce the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and the warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Using a climate model forced also with a freshwater amount derived from data representing melting from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets accounts for this response via the bipolar seesaw mechanism.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl
The Cryosphere, 10, 1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
Rachael H. Rhodes, Xavier Faïn, Edward J. Brook, Joseph R. McConnell, Olivia J. Maselli, Michael Sigl, Jon Edwards, Christo Buizert, Thomas Blunier, Jérôme Chappellaz, and Johannes Freitag
Clim. Past, 12, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1061-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1061-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Local artifacts in ice core methane data are superimposed on consistent records of past atmospheric variability. These artifacts are not related to past atmospheric history and care should be taken to avoid interpreting them as such. By investigating five polar ice cores from sites with different conditions, we relate isolated methane spikes to melt layers and decimetre-scale variations as "trapping signal" associated with a difference in timing of air bubble closure in adjacent firn layers.
Michael Sigl, Tyler J. Fudge, Mai Winstrup, Jihong Cole-Dai, David Ferris, Joseph R. McConnell, Ken C. Taylor, Kees C. Welten, Thomas E. Woodruff, Florian Adolphi, Marion Bisiaux, Edward J. Brook, Christo Buizert, Marc W. Caffee, Nelia W. Dunbar, Ross Edwards, Lei Geng, Nels Iverson, Bess Koffman, Lawrence Layman, Olivia J. Maselli, Kenneth McGwire, Raimund Muscheler, Kunihiko Nishiizumi, Daniel R. Pasteris, Rachael H. Rhodes, and Todd A. Sowers
Clim. Past, 12, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-769-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-769-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a chronology (WD2014) for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core, which is based on layer counting of distinctive annual cycles preserved in the elemental, chemical and electrical conductivity records. We validated the chronology by comparing it to independent high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. Given its demonstrated high accuracy, WD2014 can become a reference chronology for the Southern Hemisphere.
Lucie Bazin, Amaelle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Catherine Ritz, Ghislain Picard, Jean Jouzel, Marie Dumont, Markus Leuenberger, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 12, 729–748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present new measurements of δO2⁄N2 and δ18Oatm performed on well-conserved ice from EDC covering MIS5 and between 380 and 800 ka. The combination of the observation of a 100 ka periodicity in the new δO2⁄N2 record with a MIS5 multi-site multi-proxy study has revealed a potential influence of local climatic parameters on δO2⁄N2. Moreover, we propose that the varying delay between d18Oatm and precession for the last 800 ka is affected by the occurrence of ice sheet discharge events.
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
S. Jasechko, A. Lechler, F. S. R. Pausata, P. J. Fawcett, T. Gleeson, D. I. Cendón, J. Galewsky, A. N. LeGrande, C. Risi, Z. D. Sharp, J. M. Welker, M. Werner, and K. Yoshimura
Clim. Past, 11, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1375-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compile global isotope proxy records of climate changes from the last ice age to the late-Holocene preserved in cave calcite, glacial ice and groundwater aquifers. We show that global patterns of late-Pleistocene to late-Holocene precipitation isotope shifts are consistent with stronger-than-modern isotopic distillation of air masses during the last ice age, likely impacted by larger global temperature differences between the tropics and the poles.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
S. J. Allin, J. C. Laube, E. Witrant, J. Kaiser, E. McKenna, P. Dennis, R. Mulvaney, E. Capron, P. Martinerie, T. Röckmann, T. Blunier, J. Schwander, P. J. Fraser, R. L. Langenfelds, and W. T. Sturges
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6867–6877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6867-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6867-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects life on Earth from harmful UV-B radiation. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are man-made compounds which act to destroy this barrier.
This paper presents (1) the first measurements of the stratospheric δ(37Cl) of CFCs -11 and -113; (2) the first quantification of long-term trends in the tropospheric δ(37Cl) of CFCs -11, -12 and -113.
This study provides a better understanding of source and sink processes associated with these destructive compounds.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
F. Parrenin, L. Bazin, E. Capron, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, and V. Masson-Delmotte
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1473–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1473-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1473-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript describes a probabilistic model which aims at optimizing the chronology of ice cores by combining different sources of information.
A. Cauquoin, A. Landais, G. M. Raisbeck, J. Jouzel, L. Bazin, M. Kageyama, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, M. Werner, E. Bard, and ASTER Team
Clim. Past, 11, 355–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-355-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new 10Be record at EDC between 269 and 355ka. Our 10Be-based accumulation rate is in good agreement with the one associated with the EDC3 timescale except for the warm MIS 9.3 optimum. This suggests that temperature reconstruction from water isotopes may be underestimated by 2.4K for the difference between the MIS 9.3 and present day. The CMIP5-PMIP3 models do not quantitatively reproduce changes in precipitation vs. temperature increase during glacial–interglacial transitions.
C. Buizert, K. M. Cuffey, J. P. Severinghaus, D. Baggenstos, T. J. Fudge, E. J. Steig, B. R. Markle, M. Winstrup, R. H. Rhodes, E. J. Brook, T. A. Sowers, G. D. Clow, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, M. Sigl, J. R. McConnell, and K. C. Taylor
Clim. Past, 11, 153–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-153-2015, 2015
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
N. V. Rokotyan, V. I. Zakharov, K. G. Gribanov, M. Schneider, F.-M. Bréon, J. Jouzel, R. Imasu, M. Werner, M. Butzin, C. Petri, T. Warneke, and J. Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2567–2580, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2567-2014, 2014
K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, V. Bastrikov, J.-L. Bonne, F.-M. Breon, M. Butzin, O. Cattani, V. Masson-Delmotte, N. Rokotyan, M. Werner, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5943–5957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, 2014
M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014
X. Faïn, J. Chappellaz, R. H. Rhodes, C. Stowasser, T. Blunier, J. R. McConnell, E. J. Brook, S. Preunkert, M. Legrand, T. Debois, and D. Romanini
Clim. Past, 10, 987–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-987-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-987-2014, 2014
M. Baumgartner, P. Kindler, O. Eicher, G. Floch, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, R. Spahni, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 903–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, 2014
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
L. Bazin, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, D. Veres, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, C. Ritz, E. Capron, V. Lipenkov, M.-F. Loutre, D. Raynaud, B. Vinther, A. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, T. Blunier, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Chappellaz, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013
D. Veres, L. Bazin, A. Landais, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, B. Lemieux-Dudon, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, E. Blayo, T. Blunier, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, A. Svensson, B. Vinther, and E. W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1733-2013, 2013
E. Capron, A. Landais, D. Buiron, A. Cauquoin, J. Chappellaz, M. Debret, J. Jouzel, M. Leuenberger, P. Martinerie, V. Masson-Delmotte, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, and F. Prié
Clim. Past, 9, 983–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models
Automatic grounding line delineation of DInSAR interferograms using deep learning
The impact of regional-scale upper-mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica
Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica
Satellite data reveal details of glacial isostatic adjustment in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Review article: Feature tracing in radio-echo sounding products of terrestrial ice sheets and planetary bodies
Viscoelastic mechanics of tidally induced lake drainage in the grounding zone
A facet-based numerical model to retrieve ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry
Current reversal leads to regime change in the Amery Ice Shelf cavity in the 21st century
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica
Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200
A reconstruction of the ice thickness of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70° S
Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica
Age–depth distribution in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and Antarctic-wide comparisons of internal reflection horizons
Assessing the sensitivity of the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, to basal melt and calving
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
Gravity-derived Antarctic bathymetry using the Tomofast-x open-source code: a case study of Vincennes Bay
Totten Ice Shelf history over the past century interpreted from satellite imagery
ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Spatio-temporal melt and basal channel evolution on Pine Island Glacier ice shelf from CryoSat-2
Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance
Capturing Solid Earth and Ice Sheet Interactions: Insights from Reinforced Ridges in Thwaites Glacier
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
The surface mass balance and near-surface climate of the Antarctic ice sheet in RACMO2.4p1
Monitoring Shear-Zone Weakening in East Antarctic Outlet Glaciers through Differential InSAR Measurements
A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
Review Article: Antarctica’s internal architecture: Towards a radiostratigraphically-informed age–depth model of the Antarctic ice sheets
A thicker, rather than thinner, East Antarctic Ice Sheet plateau during the Last Glacial Maximum
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice-sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration based on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea level rise.
Sindhu Ramanath, Lukas Krieger, Dana Floricioiu, Codruț-Andrei Diaconu, and Konrad Heidler
The Cryosphere, 19, 2431–2455, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2431-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Grounding lines are geophysical features that divide ice masses on the bedrock and floating ice shelves. Their accurate location is required for calculating the mass balance of ice sheets and glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. Human experts still manually detect them in satellite-based interferometric radar images, which is inefficient given the growing volume of data. We have developed an artificial-intelligence-based automatic detection algorithm to generate Antarctica-wide grounding lines.
Erica M. Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2387–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the effects of incorporating regional-scale lateral variability (ca. 50–100 km) in upper-mantle structure into models of Earth deformation and sea level change associated with ice mass changes in West Antarctica. Regional-scale variability in upper-mantle structure is found to impact relative sea level and crustal rate predictions for modern (last ca. 25–125 years) and projected (next ca. 300 years) ice mass changes, especially in coastal regions that undergo rapid ice mass loss.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 2263–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of access depths on ice-shelf melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that could channel warm water masses to the base of the ice sheet. We identify oceanic gateways in several Antarctic regions and estimate an upper bound of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Matthias O. Willen, Bert Wouters, Taco Broerse, Eric Buchta, and Veit Helm
The Cryosphere, 19, 2213–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment is likely in the near future. Vertical uplift of bedrock due to glacial isostatic adjustment stabilizes the ice sheet and may delay its collapse. So far, only spatially and temporally sparse GPS measurements have been able to observe this bedrock motion. We have combined satellite data and quantified a region-wide bedrock motion that independently matches GPS measurements. This can improve ice sheet predictions.
Hameed Moqadam and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2159–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2159-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2159-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is an overview of methodologies that have been applied to map the internal reflection horizons, or ice-layer boundaries, of ice sheets on Earth and other planets. We briefly explain radar applications in glaciology and the methods which have been used and published. There are summaries of the published work of the last 2 decades. Finally, we conclude by introducing the gaps and opportunities for further advancement in this field, and we present possible future directions.
Hanwen Zhang, Richard F. Katz, and Laura A. Stevens
The Cryosphere, 19, 2087–2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2087-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2087-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Antarctica, supraglacial lakes often form near grounding lines due to surface melting. We model viscoelastic tidal flexure in these regions to assess its contribution to lake drainage via hydrofracturing. Results show that tidal flexure and lake-water pressure jointly control drainage near unconfined grounding lines. Sensitivity analysis indicates the importance of the Maxwell time of ice in modulating the tidal response.
Jérémie Aublanc, François Boy, Franck Borde, and Pierre Féménias
The Cryosphere, 19, 1937–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1937-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1937-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed a novel processing chain to derive the ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry measurements (named "AMPLI"). The major innovation lies in the use of numerical simulations to geolocate the radar impact point on the ground. The performance improvement is substantial compared to ground segment processing. Furthermore, with AMPLI we show that Sentinel-3 estimates the surface elevation change of the Antarctic ice sheet with a high level of agreement with ICESat-2.
Jing Jin, Antony J. Payne, and Christopher Y. S. Bull
The Cryosphere, 19, 1873–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1873-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Amery Ice Shelf cavity is one of the largest cold cavities filled by relatively cold Dense Shelf Water. However, in this study, we show that warm intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water flushes the Amery cavity, which changes it from a cold cavity to a warm cavity and leads to an abrupt increase in the basal melt rate in the 2060s. The shift to a warm cavity is attributed to a freshening-driven current reversal in front of the ice shelf.
Heather L. Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
The Cryosphere, 19, 1725–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed-up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10 %, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of “ice piracy” has not previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Kaian Shahateet, Johannes J. Fürst, Francisco Navarro, Thorsten Seehaus, Daniel Farinotti, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 19, 1577–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1577-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1577-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In the present work, we provide a new ice thickness reconstruction of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70º S using inversion modeling. This model consists of two steps: the first uses basic assumptions of the rheology of the glacier, and the second uses mass conservation to improve the reconstruction where the assumptions made previously are expected to fail. Validation with independent data showed that our reconstruction improved compared to other reconstructions that are available.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the melting of floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that compared to climatic changes, the effect of relative sea level on ice-shelf melting is small.
Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Alexandra M. Zuhr, Julien A. Bodart, Olaf Eisen, and Paul Bons
The Cryosphere, 19, 1153–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents internal reflection horizons (IRHs) over an area of 450 000 km² from western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, spanning 4.8–91 ka. Using radar and ice core data, nine IRHs were dated and correlated with volcanic events. The data enhance our understanding of the ice sheet's age–depth architecture, accumulation, and dynamics. The findings inform ice flow models and contribute to Antarctic-wide comparisons of IRHs, supporting efforts toward a 3D age–depth ice sheet model.
Lawrence A. Bird, Felicity S. McCormack, Johanna Beckmann, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
The Cryosphere, 19, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vanderford Glacier is the fastest-retreating glacier in East Antarctica and may have important implications for future ice loss from the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our ice sheet model simulations suggest that grounding line retreat is driven by sub-ice-shelf basal melting, in which warm ocean waters melt ice close to the grounding line. We show that current estimates of basal melt are likely too low, highlighting the need for improved estimates and direct measurements of basal melt in the region.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 19, 919–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 kyr by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~ 10 000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to the present of 9.2 to 26.5 m equivalent sea level relative to the present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing-ice problem.
Lawrence A. Bird, Vitaliy Ogarko, Laurent Ailleres, Lachlan Grose, Jeremie Giraud, Felicity S. McCormack, David E. Gwyther, Jason L. Roberts, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-211, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The terrain of the seafloor has important controls on the access of warm water to below floating ice shelves around Antarctica. Here, we present an open-source method to infer what the seafloor looks like around the Antarctic continent, and within these ice shelf cavities, using measurements of the Earth’s gravitational field. We present an improved seafloor map for the Vincennes Bay region in East Antarctica and assess its impact on ice melt rates.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Tian Li, and Robert G. Bingham
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3964, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Totten Glacier is the largest source of mass loss in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, with thinning detected since the 1990s, though the onset remains unclear. Ice-speed anomalies show no acceleration since 1973, confirming imbalance by the 1970s. A century-long record of surface undulations from Landsat imagery, linked to basal melt variability, reveals an anomalous mid-20th-century period with persistently high melt rates, possibly indicating the onset time of ice shelf thinning.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Katie Lowery, Pierre Dutrieux, Paul R. Holland, Anna E. Hogg, Noel Gourmelen, and Benjamin J. Wallis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-267, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use CryoSat-2 to observe monthly changes in Pine Island Glacier's ice shelf (PIG) surface at 250 m resolution. We show that melt is focused on the western walls of basal channels and highlight the role of channels in grounding pinning points. PIG’s main channel geometry is inherited from the ice-bed interface upstream of the grounding line. These results highlight the importance of channels on ice shelf stability and how this can change over time.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
The Cryosphere, 19, 303–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples, and ground-penetrating radar) to assess the suitability for subglacial drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak (74.86°S, 99.77°W).
Luc Houriez, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Surendra Adhikari, Erik Ivins, Tyler Pelle, Hélène Seroussi, Eric Darve, and Martin Fischer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4136, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how interactions between the ice sheet and the Earth’s evolving surface affect the future of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. We find that small features in the bedrock play a major role in these interactions which can delay the glacier’s retreat by decades or even centuries. This can significantly reduce sea-level rise projections. Our work highlights resolution requirements for similar ice—earth models, and the importance of bedrock mapping efforts in Antarctica.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Mathieu Morlighem, Huw Horgan, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
The Cryosphere, 19, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially, but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature and wind speed compare well with in-situ and remote sensing observations.
Christian T. Wild, Reinhard Drews, Niklas Neckel, Joohan Lee, Sihyung Kim, Hyangsun Han, Won Sang Lee, Veit Helm, Sebastian Harry Reid Rosier, Oliver J. Marsh, and Wolfgang Rack
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3593, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet depends on how resistance along the sides of large glaciers slows down the flow of ice into the ocean. We present a method to map ice strength using the effect of ocean tides on floating ice shelves. Incorporating weaker ice in shear zones improves the accuracy of model predictions compared to satellite observations. This demonstrates the untapped potential of radar satellites to map ice stiffness in the most critical areas for ice sheet stability.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Robert G. Bingham, Julien A. Bodart, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Ailsa Chung, Rebecca J. Sanderson, Johannes C. R. Sutter, Olaf Eisen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Joseph A. MacGregor, Neil Ross, Duncan A. Young, David W. Ashmore, Andreas Born, Winnie Chu, Xiangbin Cui, Reinhard Drews, Steven Franke, Vikram Goel, John W. Goodge, A. Clara J. Henry, Antoine Hermant, Benjamin H. Hills, Nicholas Holschuh, Michelle R. Koutnik, Gwendolyn J.-M. C. Leysinger Vieli, Emma J. Mackie, Elisa Mantelli, Carlos Martín, Felix S. L. Ng, Falk M. Oraschewski, Felipe Napoleoni, Frédéric Parrenin, Sergey V. Popov, Therese Rieckh, Rebecca Schlegel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Xueyuan Tang, Thomas O. Teisberg, Kate Winter, Shuai Yan, Harry Davis, Christine F. Dow, Tyler J. Fudge, Tom A. Jordan, Bernd Kulessa, Kenichi Matsuoka, Clara J. Nyqvist, Maryam Rahnemoonfar, Matthew R. Siegfried, Shivangini Singh, Verjan Višnjević, Rodrigo Zamora, and Alexandra Zuhr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2593, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ice sheets covering Antarctica have built up over millenia through successive snowfall events which become buried and preserved as internal surfaces of equal age detectable with ice-penetrating radar. This paper describes an international initiative to work together on this archival data to build a comprehensive 3-D picture of how old the ice is everywhere across Antarctica, and how this will be used to reconstruct past and predict future ice and climate behaviour.
Cari Rand, Richard S. Jones, Andrew N. Mackintosh, Brent Goehring, and Kat Lilly
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2674, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we determine how recently samples from a mountain in East Antarctica were last covered by the East Antarctic ice sheet. By examining concentrations of carbon-14 in rock samples, we determined that all but the summit of the mountain was buried under glacial ice within the last 15 thousand years. Other methods of estimating past ice thicknesses are not sensitive enough to capture ice cover this recent, so we were previously unaware that ice at this site was thicker at this time.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Cited articles
Adusumilli, S., A. Fish, M., Fricker, H. A., and Medley, B.: Atmospheric River Precipitation Contributed to Rapid Increases in Surface Height of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in 2019, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091076, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091076, 2021. a
Aemisegger, F. and Papritz, L.: A Climatology of Strong Large-Scale Ocean Evaporation Events. Part I: Identification, Global Distribution, and Associated Climate Conditions, J. Climate, 31, 7287–7312, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0591.1, 2018. a, b
Bailey, A., Singh, H. K., and Nusbaumer, J.: Evaluating a Moist Isentropic Framework for Poleward Moisture Transport: Implications for Water Isotopes Over Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7819–7827, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082965, 2019. a, b
Benjamini, Y. and Hochberg, Y.: Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. B, 57, 289–300, https://doi.org/10.1111/J.2517-6161.1995.TB02031.X, 1995. a, b
Bromwich, D. H.: Snowfall in high southern latitudes, Rev. Geophys., 26, 149–168, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG026I001P00149, 1988. a
Brown, A., Milton, S., Cullen, M., Golding, B., Mitchell, J., and Shelly, A.: Unified Modeling and Prediction of Weather and Climate: A 25-Year Journey, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1865–1877, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00018.1, 2012. a
Buizert, C., Sigl, M., Severi, M., Markle, B. R., Wettstein, J. J., McConnell, J. R., Pedro, J. B., Sodemann, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Kawamura, K., Fujita, S., Motoyama, H., Hirabayashi, M., Uemura, R., Stenni, B., Parrenin, F., He, F., Fudge, T. J., and Steig, E. J.: Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north, Nature, 563, 681–685, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0727-5, 2018. a
Cauquoin, A., Werner, M., and Lohmann, G.: Water isotopes – climate relationships for the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period simulated with an isotope-enabled version of MPI-ESM, Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019. a
Davison, B. J., Hogg, A. E., Rigby, R., Veldhuijsen, S., van Wessem, J. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Holland, P. R., Selley, H. L., and Dutrieux, P.: Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies, Nat. Commun., 14, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36990-3, 2023. a
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016. a
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez, N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., Kopp, R. E., Li, D., and Dutton, A.: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica, Nature, 593, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0, 2021. a
Delaygue, G., Masson, V., Jouzel, J., Koster, R. D., and Healy, R. J.: The origin of Antarctic precipitation: A modelling approach, Tellus B, 52, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v52i1.16079, 2000. a, b, c, d
Dittmann, A., Schlosser, E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Powers, J. G., Manning, K. W., Werner, M., and Fujita, K.: Precipitation regime and stable isotopes at Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016. a, b
Durack, P. J., Taylor, K. E., Ames, S., Po-Chedley, S., and Mauzey, C.: PCMDI AMIP SST and sea-ice boundary conditions version 1.1.8, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.16921, 2022. a, b
ESA: Antarctica and Greenland Ice Sheet Drainage Basins, NASA [data set], http://imbie.org/imbie-2016/drainage-basins, last access: 5 February 2024. a
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Hare, J. E., Grachev, A. A., and Edson, J. B.: Bulk Parameterization of Air–Sea Fluxes: Updates and Verification for the COARE Algorithm, J. Climate, 16, 571–591, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0571:BPOASF>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Fiorella, R. P., Siler, N., Nusbaumer, J., and Noone, D. C.: Enhancing Understanding of the Hydrological Cycle via Pairing of Process-Oriented and Isotope Ratio Tracers, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2021MS002648, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002648, 2021. a, b, c, d
Fogt, R. L. and Marshall, G. J.: The Southern Annular Mode: Variability, trends, and climate impacts across the Southern Hemisphere, Wires Clim. Change, 11, e652, https://doi.org/10.1002/WCC.652, 2020. a
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a, b
Frieler, K., Clark, P. U., He, F., Buizert, C., Reese, R., Ligtenberg, S. R., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 348–352, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2574, 2015. a
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G. K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a
Genthon, C., Krinner, G., and Déqué, M.: Intra-annual variability of Antarctic precipitation from weather forecasts and high-resolution climate models, Ann. Glaciol., 27, 488–494, https://doi.org/10.3189/1998AOG27-1-488-494, 1998. a
Gerber, F., Sharma, V., and Lehning, M.: CRYOWRF – Model Evaluation and the Effect of Blowing Snow on the Antarctic Surface Mass Balance, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 128, e2022JD037744, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037744, 2023. a
Gimeno, L., Drumond, A., Nieto, R., Trigo, R. M., and Stohl, A.: On the origin of continental precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 13804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043712, 2010. a, b
Gong, D. and Wang, S.: Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459–462, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900003, 1999. a
Gorodetskaya, I. V., Tsukernik, M., Claes, K., Ralph, M. F., Neff, W. D., and Van Lipzig, N. P.: The role of atmospheric rivers in anomalous snow accumulation in East Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 6199–6206, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060881, 2014. a, b, c
Gorodetskaya, I. V., Durán-Alarcón, C., González-Herrero, S., Clem, K. R., Zou, X., Rowe, P., Rodriguez Imazio, P., Campos, D., Leroy, C., Santos, D., Dutrievoz, N., Wille, J. D., Chyhareva, A., Favier, V., Blanchet, J., Pohl, B., Cordero, R. R., Park, S.-J., Colwell, S., Lazzara, M. A., Carrasco, J., Gulisano, A. M., Krakovska, S., Ralph, F. M., Dethinne, T., and Picard, G.: Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00529-6, 2023. a
Hahn, L. C., Armour, K. C., Zelinka, M. D., Bitz, C. M., and Donohoe, A.: Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models, Front. Earth Sci., 9, 725, https://doi.org/10.3389/FEART.2021.710036, 2021. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023. a
Hoffmann, G., Werner, M., and Heimann, M.: Water isotope module of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model: A study on timescales from days to several years, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 16871–16896, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD00423, 1998. a, b
IPCC: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 321–446, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.006, 2022. a
Koster, R., Jouzel, J., Suozzo, R., Russell, G., Broecker, W., Rind, D., and Eagleson, P.: Global sources of local precipitation as determined by the NASA/GISS GCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 13, 121–124, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL013I002P00121, 1986. a
Kurita, N., Hirasawa, N., Koga, S., Matsushita, J., Steen-Larsen, H. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Fujiyoshi, Y.: Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on marine air intrusion toward the East Antarctic coast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9298–9305, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070246, 2016. a
Lenaerts, J. T., Medley, B., van den Broeke, M. R., and Wouters, B.: Observing and Modeling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance, Rev. Geophys., 57, 376–420, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000622, 2019. a
Liu, W. T., Katsaros, K. B., and Businger, J. A.: Bulk Parameterization of Air-Sea Exchanges of Heat and Water Vapor Including the Molecular Constraints at the Interface, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1722–1735, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1722:BPOASE>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a
Manabe, S. and Strickler, R. F.: Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Convective Adjustment, J. Atmos. Sci., 21, 361–385, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1964)021<0361:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2, 1964. a
Marshall, G. J.: Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses, J. Climate, 16, 4134–4143, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4134:TITSAM>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a, b
Marshall, G. J., Thompson, D. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 580–11, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075998, 2017. a, b
Massom, R. A., Pook, M. J., Comiso, J. C., Adams, N., Turner, J., Lachlan-Cope, T., and Gibson, T. T.: Precipitation over the Interior East Antarctic Ice Sheet Related to Midlatitude Blocking-High Activity, J. Climate, 17, 1914–1928, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1914:POTIEA>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Monaghan, A. J., Bromwich, D. H., Fogt, R. L., Wang, S. H., Mayewski, P. A., Dixon, D. A., Ekaykin, A., Frezzotti, M., Goodwin, I., Isaksson, E., Kaspari, S. D., Morgan, V. I., Oerter, H., Van Ommen, T. D., Van Der Veen, C. J., and Wen, J.: Insignificant change in antarctic snowfall since the international geophysical year, Science, 313, 827–831, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128243, 2006. a
Mottram, R., Hansen, N., Kittel, C., van Wessem, J. M., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Boberg, F., van de Berg, W. J., Fettweis, X., Gossart, A., van Lipzig, N. P. M., van Meijgaard, E., Orr, A., Phillips, T., Webster, S., Simonsen, S. B., and Souverijns, N.: What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates, The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021. a
Noone, D. and Simmonds, I.: Annular variations in moisture transport mechanisms and the abundance of δ18O in Antarctic snow, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, ACL 3-1–ACL 3-11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002262, 2002. a
Noone, D., Turner, J., and Mulvaney, R.: Atmospheric signals and characteristics of accumulation in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 19191–19211, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900376, 1999. a, b
Pauluis, O., Czaja, A., and Korty, R.: The Global Atmospheric Circulation in Moist Isentropic Coordinates, J. Climate, 23, 3077–3093, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2789.1, 2010. a
Petit, J. R., White, J. W., Young, N. W., Jouzel, J., and Korotkevich, Y. S.: Deuterium excess in recent Antarctic snow, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 96, 5113–5122, https://doi.org/10.1029/90JD02232, 1991. a, b
Purich, A. and Doddridge, E. W.: Record low Antarctic sea ice coverage indicates a new sea ice state, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00961-9, 2023. a
Schlosser, E., Manning, K. W., Powers, J. G., Duda, M. G., Birnbaum, G., and Fujita, K.: Characteristics of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, 14107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013410, 2010. a, b, c
Schlosser, E., Stenni, B., Valt, M., Cagnati, A., Powers, J. G., Manning, K. W., Raphael, M., and Duda, M. G.: Precipitation and synoptic regime in two extreme years 2009 and 2010 at Dome C, Antarctica – implications for ice core interpretation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4757–4770, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4757-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Sinclair, V. A. and Dacre, H. F.: Which Extratropical Cyclones Contribute Most to the Transport of Moisture in the Southern Hemisphere?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028766, 2019. a
Singh, H. A., Bitz, C. M., Nusbaumer, J., and Noone, D. C.: A mathematical framework for analysis of water tracers: Part 1: Development of theory and application to the preindustrial mean state, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 8, 991–1013, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000649, 2016. a
Stenni, B., Masson-Delmotte, V., Selmo, E., Oerter, H., Meyer, H., Röthlisberger, R., Jouzel, J., Cattani, O., Falourd, S., Fischer, H., Hoffmann, G., Iacumin, P., Johnsen, S. J., Minster, B., and Udisti, R.: The deuterium excess records of EPICA Dome C and Dronning Maud Land ice cores (East Antarctica), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 146–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2009.10.009, 2010. a, b
Stenni, B., Scarchilli, C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Schlosser, E., Ciardini, V., Dreossi, G., Grigioni, P., Bonazza, M., Cagnati, A., Karlicek, D., Risi, C., Udisti, R., and Valt, M.: Three-year monitoring of stable isotopes of precipitation at Concordia Station, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 10, 2415–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2415-2016, 2016. a
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S., Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopf, R., Fast, I., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T., and Roeckner, E.: Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 146–172, https://doi.org/10.1002/JAME.20015, 2013. a
Stohl, A. and Sodemann, H.: Characteristics of atmospheric transport into the Antarctic troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, 2305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012536, 2010. a, b, c
Terpstra, A., Gorodetskaya, I. V., and Sodemann, H.: Linking Sub-Tropical Evaporation and Extreme Precipitation Over East Antarctica: An Atmospheric River Case Study, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033617, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033617, 2021. a, b, c, d
The IMBIE team: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018. a
Thurnherr, I. and Aemisegger, F.: Disentangling the impact of air–sea interaction and boundary layer cloud formation on stable water isotope signals in the warm sector of a Southern Ocean cyclone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10353–10373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10353-2022, 2022. a
Turner, J., Phillips, T., Thamban, M., Rahaman, W., Marshall, G. J., Wille, J. D., Favier, V., Winton, V. H. L., Thomas, E., Wang, Z., van den Broeke, M., Hosking, J. S., and Lachlan-Cope, T.: The Dominant Role of Extreme Precipitation Events in Antarctic Snowfall Variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3502–3511, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081517, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Uotila, P., Vihma, T., and Tsukernik, M.: Close interactions between the Antarctic cyclone budget and large-scale atmospheric circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3237–3241, https://doi.org/10.1002/GRL.50560, 2013. a
Wang, H., Fyke, J. G., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Nusbaumer, J. M., Singh, H., Noone, D., Rasch, P. J., and Zhang, R.: Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model, The Cryosphere, 14, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Watson, G. S. and Williams, E. J.: On the Construction of Significance Tests on the Circle and the Sphere, Biometrika, 43, 344, https://doi.org/10.2307/2332913, 1956. a, b
Werner, M., Heimann, M., and Hoffmann, G.: Isotopic composition and origin of polar precipitation in present and glacial climate simulations, Tellus B, 53, 53–71, https://doi.org/10.3402/TELLUSB.V53I1.16539, 2001. a, b
Wille, J. D., Favier, V., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Agosta, C., Kittel, C., Beeman, J. C., Jourdain, N. C., Lenaerts, J. T., and Codron, F.: Antarctic Atmospheric River Climatology and Precipitation Impacts, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033788, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033788, 2021. a
Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Martin, M. A., and Frieler, K.: Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall, Nature, 492, 239–242, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11616, 2012. a
Yu, L. and Weller, R. A.: Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Heat Fluxes for the Global Ice-Free Oceans (1981–2005), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 527–540, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-4-527, 2007. a, b
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal...
