Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Mar 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 05 Mar 2024
| 05 Mar 2024
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming
Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
Ambarish V. Karmalkar
Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA
Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
Cited articles
Ahmed, R., Prowse, T., Dibike, Y., Bonsal, B., and O’Neil, H.: Recent Trends in Freshwater Influx to the Arctic Ocean from Four Major Arctic-Draining Rivers, Water, 12, 1189, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041189, 2020. a
Alexeev, V., Nicolsky, D., Romanovsky, V., and Lawrence, D.: An evaluation of deep soil configurations in the CLM3 for improved representation of permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029536, 2007. a
Amon, R. M. W., Rinehart, A. J., Duan, S., Louchouarn, P., Prokushkin, A., Guggenberger, G., Bauch, D., Stedmon, C., Raymond, P. A., Holmes, R. M., McClelland, J. W., Peterson, B. J., Walker, S. J., and Zhulidov, A. V.: Dissolved organic matter sources in large Arctic rivers, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 94, 217–237, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2012.07.015, 2012. a, b
Andresen, C. G. and Lougheed, V. L.: Disappearing Arctic tundra ponds: Fine-scale analysis of surface hydrology in drained thaw lake basins over a 65 year period (1948–2013), J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo, 120, 466–479, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002778, 2015. a
Anisimov, O. and Reneva, S.: Permafrost and Changing Climate: The Russian Perspective, AMBIO, 35, 169–175, https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[169:PACCTR]2.0.CO;2, 2006. a
Arp, C., Whitman, M., Kemnitz, R., and Stuefer, S.: Evidence of hydrological intensification and regime change from northern Alaskan watershed runoff, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089186, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089186, 2020. a, b, c
Arp, C. D. and Whitman, M. S.: Lake basins drive variation in catchment-scale runoff response over a decade of increasing rainfall in Arctic Alaska, Hydrol. Process., 36, e14583, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14583, 2022. a
Barnhart, K. R., Miller, C. R., Overeem, I., and Kay, J. E.: Mapping the future expansion of Arctic open water, Nat. Clim. Change., 6, 280–285, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2848, 2016. a
Behnke, M. I., McClelland, J. W., Tank, S. E., Kellerman, A. M., Holmes, R. M., Haghipour, N., Eglinton, T. I., Raymond, P. A., Suslova, A., Zhulidov, A. V., Gurtovaya, T., Zimov, N., Zimov, S., Mutter, E. A., Amos, E., and Spencer, R. G. M.: Pan-Arctic Riverine Dissolved Organic Matter: Synchronous Molecular Stability, Shifting Sources and Subsidies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 35, e2020GB006871, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006871, 2021. a
Bintanja, R.: The impact of Arctic warming on increased rainfall, Sci. Rep., 8, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34450-3, 2018. a
Bintanja, R. and Selten, F. M.: Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat, Nature, 509, 479–482, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13259, 2014. a, b
Bintanja, R., van der Wiel, K., Van der Linden, E., Reusen, J., Bogerd, L., Krikken, F., and Selten, F.: Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport, Sci. Adv., 6, eaax6869, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869, 2020. a
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H., Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G., Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson, M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P., Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J.-P., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn, I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel, A. B. K., Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q., Yoshikawa, K., Zheleznyak, M., and Lantuit, H.: Permafrost is warming at a global scale, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4, 2019. a
Blaskey, D., Koch, J. C., Gooseff, M. N., Newman, A. J., Cheng, Y., O’Donnell, J. A., and Musselman, K. N.: Increasing Alaskan river discharge during the cold season is driven by recent warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 024042, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb661, 2023. a
Box, J. E., Colgan, W. T., Christensen, T. R., Schmidt, N. M., Lund, M., Parmentier, F.-J. W., Brown, R., Bhatt, U. S., Euskirchen, E. S., Romanovsky, V. E., Walsh, J. E., Overland, J. E., Wang, M., Corell, R. W., Meier, W. N., Wouters, B., Mernild, S., Mård, J., Pawlak, J., and Olsen, M. S.: Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 045010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b, 2019. a, b
Bring, A., Asokan, S. M., Jaramillo, F., Jarsjö, J., Levi, L., Pietroń, J., Prieto, C., Rogberg, P., and Destouni, G.: Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins, Earth's Future, 3, 206–217, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000296, 2015. a
Brodzik, M. J. and Knowles, K.: EASE-Grid: A Versatile Set of Equal-Area Projections and Grids, in: Discrete Global Grids, edited by: Goodchild, M., Santa Barbara, CA, National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, USA, https://nsidc.org/data/user-resources/help-center/guide-ease-grids (last access: 17 April 2023), 2002. a
Brown Jr., J. O. J. F., Heginbottom, J. A., and Melnikov, E. S.: Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions, Tech. rep., National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, digital Media, revised 2001, 2001. a
Brown, J., Ferrians, O., Heginbottom, J. A., and Melnikov, E.: Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions, Version 2, Boulder, Colorado USA, National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.7265/skbg-kf16, 2002. a
Burke, E. J., Zhang, Y., and Krinner, G.: Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change, The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020. a
Christensen, T. R., Johansson, T., Åkerman, H. J., Mastepanov, M., Malmer, N., Friborg, T., Crill, P., and Svensson, B. H.: Thawing sub-arctic permafrost: Effects on vegetation and methane emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L04501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018680, 2004. a
Clilverd, H. M., White, D. M., Tidwell, A. C., and Rawlins, M. A.: The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 47, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00569.x, 2011. a
Connolly, C. T., Cardenas, M. B., Burkart, G. A., Spencer, R. G., and McClelland, J. W.: Groundwater as a major source of dissolved organic matter to Arctic coastal waters, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15250-8, 2020. a
Cooper, M. G., Zhou, T., Bennett, K. E., Bolton, W., Coon, E., Fleming, S. W., Rowland, J. C., and Schwenk, J.: Detecting Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Change From Nonlinear Baseflow Recession, Water Resour. Res., 59, e2022WR033154, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033154, 2023. a
Croghan, D., Ala-Aho, P., Lohila, A., Welker, J., Vuorenmaa, J., Kløve, B., Mustonen, K.-R., Aurela, M., and Marttila, H.: Coupling of Water-Carbon Interactions During Snowmelt in an Arctic Finland Catchment, Water Resour. Res., 59, e2022WR032892, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032892, 2023. a
Cubasch, U., Meehl, G., Boer, G., Stouffer, R., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C., Raper, S., and Yap, K.: Projections of future climate change, in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., Van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., pp. 526–582, 2001. a
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Dankers, R. and Middelkoop, H.: River discharge and freshwater runoff to the Barents Sea under present and future climate conditions, Clim. Change, 87, 131–153, 2008. a
Dean, J., van der Velde, Y., Garnett, M. H., Dinsmore, K. J., Baxter, R., Lessels, J. S., Smith, P., Street, L. E., Subke, J.-A., Tetzlaff, D., and Washbourne, I.: Abundant pre-industrial carbon detected in Canadian Arctic headwaters: implications for the permafrost carbon feedback, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa1fe, 2018. a, b
Debolskiy, M. V., Alexeev, V. A., Hock, R., Lammers, R. B., Shiklomanov, A., Schulla, J., Nicolsky, D., Romanovsky, V. E., and Prusevich, A.: Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 084054, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3, 2021. a
Del Vecchio, J. D., Palucis, M. C., and Meyer, C. R.: Permafrost extent sets drainage density in the Arctic, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 121, e2307072120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2307072120, 2024. a
Déry, S. J., Hernández-Henríquez, M. A., Burford, J. E., and Wood, E. F.: Observational evidence of an intensifying hydrological cycle in northern Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038852, 2009. a
Du, J., Kimball, J. S., and Jones, L. A.: Passive microwave remote sensing of soil moisture based on dynamic vegetation scattering properties for AMSR-E, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 54, 597–608, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2015.2462758, 2016. a
ECMWF: ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), ECMWF [data set], https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5, last access: 19 March 2023. a
Feng, D., Gleason, C. J., Lin, P., Yang, X., Pan, M., and Ishitsuka, Y.: Recent changes to Arctic river discharge, Nat. Commun., 12, 6917, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27228-1, 2021. a, b, c, d
Ford, V. L. and Frauenfeld, O. W.: Arctic precipitation recycling and hydrologic budget changes in response to sea ice loss, Global Planet. Change, 209, 103752, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103752, 2022. a
Frey, K. E. and McClelland, J. W.: Impacts of permafrost degradation on arctic river biogeochemistry, Hydrol. Process., 23, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7196, 2009. a, b, c
Frey, K. E. and Smith, L. C.: Amplified carbon release from vast West Siberian peatlands by 2100, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L09401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL022025, 2005. a, b
GLEAM: Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model, GLEAM [data set], https://www.gleam.eu/, last access: 17 April 2023. a
Guo, D., Wang, A., Li, D., and Hua, W.: Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 2509–2523, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD028097, 2018. a
Hinzman, L. D., Deal, C. J., McGuire, A. D., Mernild, S. H., Polyakov, I. V., and Walsh, J. E.: Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system, Ecol. Appl., 23, 1837–1868, https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1498.1, 2013. a
Hodson, T. O.: Root-mean-square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE): when to use them or not, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5481–5487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022, 2022. a
Hu, Y., Ma, R., Sun, Z., Zheng, Y., Pan, Z., and Zhao, L.: Groundwater Plays an Important Role in Controlling Riverine Dissolved Organic Matter in a Cold Alpine Catchment, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, Water Resour. Res., 59, e2022WR032426, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032426, 2023. a
Hugelius, G., Tarnocai, C., Broll, G., Canadell, J. G., Kuhry, P., and Swanson, D. K.: The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database: spatially distributed datasets of soil coverage and soil carbon storage in the northern permafrost regions, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-3-2013, 2013. a
Huntington, T. G.: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis, J. Hydrol., 319, 83–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003, 2006. a
Huntington, T. G.: Climate Warming-Induced Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: An Assessment of the Published Record and Potential Impacts on Agriculture, Adv. Agron., 109, 1–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385040-9.00001-3, 2010. a
Jin, H., Huang, Y., Bense, V. F., Ma, Q., Marchenko, S. S., Shepelev, V. V., Hu, Y., Liang, S., Spektor, V. V., Jin, X., Li, X., and Li, X.: Permafrost Degradation and Its Hydrogeological Impacts, Water, 14, 372, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030372, 2022. a
Jones, B. M., Grosse, G., Farquharson, L. M., Roy-Léveillée, P., Veremeeva, A., Kanevskiy, M. Z., Gaglioti, B. V., Breen, A. L., Parsekian, A. D., Ulrich, M., and Hinkel, K. M.: Lake and drained lake basin systems in lowland permafrost regions, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ, 3, 85–98, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00238-9, 2022. a
Koch, J. C., Bogard, M. J., Butman, D. E., Finlay, K., Ebel, B., James, J., Johnston, S. E., Jorgenson, M. T., Pastick, N. J., Spencer, R. G., Striegl, R., Walvoord, M., and Wickland, K. P.: Heterogeneous Patterns of Aged Organic Carbon Export Driven by Hydrologic Flow Paths, Soil Texture, Fire, and Thaw in Discontinuous Permafrost Headwaters, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 36, e2021GB007242, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007242, 2022. a
Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., and Stern, A.: Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models, J. Climate, 26, 1877–1900, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00228.1, 2013. a, b
Lafrenière, M. J. and Lamoureux, S. F.: Effects of changing permafrost conditions on hydrological processes and fluvial fluxes, Earth-Sci. Rev., 191, 212–223, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.02.018, 2019. a
Lange, S.: Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019a. a, b
Lange, S.: WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5). V. 1.0. GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2019.023, 2019b. a
Lange, S., Menz, C., Gleixner, S., Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Schmied, H. M., Hersbach, H., Buontempo, C., and Cagnazzo, C.: WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5 v2.0), ISIMIP [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.342217, 2021. a, b
Lawrence, D. M. and Slater, A. G.: Incorporating organic soil into a global climate model, Clim. Dynam., 30, 145–160, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0278-1, 2008. a
Liljedahl, A. K., Boike, J., Daanen, R. P., Fedorov, A. N., Frost, G. V., Grosse, G., Hinzman, L. D., Iijma, Y., Jorgenson, J. C., Matveyeva, N., Necsoiu, M., Raynolds, M. K., Romanovsky, V. E., Schulla, J., Tape, K. D., Walker, D. A., Wilson, C. J., Yabuki H., and Zona, D.: Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology, Nat. Geosci., 9, 312–318, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2674, 2016. a
Liston, G. E., Haehnel, R. B., Sturm, M., Hiemstra, C. A., Berezovskaya, S., and Tabler, R. D.: Simulating complex snow distributions in windy environments using SnowTran-3D, J. Glaciol., 53, 241–256, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756507782202865, 2007. a
Liu, S., Wang, P., Yu, J., Wang, T., Cai, H., Huang, Q., Pozdniakov, S. P., Zhang, Y., and Kazak, E. S.: Mechanisms behind the uneven increases in early, mid-and late winter streamflow across four Arctic river basins, J. Hydrol., 606, 127425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127425, 2022. a
Mann, P. J., Strauss, J., Palmtag, J., Dowdy, K., Ogneva, O., Fuchs, M., Bedington, M., Torres, R., Polimene, L., Overduin, P., Mollenhauer, G., Grosse, G., Rachold, V., Sobczak, W., Spencer, R., and Juhls, B.: Degrading permafrost river catchments and their impact on Arctic Ocean nearshore processes, Ambio, 51, 439–455, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01666-z, 2022. a
Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Lievens, H., van der Schalie, R., de Jeu, R. A. M., Fernández-Prieto, D., Beck, H. E., Dorigo, W. A., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1903–1925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1903-2017, 2017. a
McClelland, J. W., Holmes, R. M., Peterson, B. J., and Stieglitz, M.: Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams, permafrost thaw, and fires as potential agents of change, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D18102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004583, 2004. a, b
McClelland, J. W., Déry, S. J., Peterson, B. J., Holmes, R. M., and Wood, E. F.: A pan-arctic evaluation of changes in river discharge during the latter half of the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06715, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025753, 2006. a, b
McCrystall, M. R., Stroeve, J., Serreze, M., Forbes, B. C., and Screen, J. A.: New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected, Nat. Commun., 12, 6765, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y, 2021. a, b
McKenzie, J. M., Kurylyk, B. L., Walvoord, M. A., Bense, V. F., Fortier, D., Spence, C., and Grenier, C.: Invited perspective: What lies beneath a changing Arctic?, The Cryosphere, 15, 479–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-479-2021, 2021. a
Miralles, D. G., Holmes, T. R. H., De Jeu, R. A. M., Gash, J. H., Meesters, A. G. C. A., and Dolman, A. J.: Global land-surface evaporation estimated from satellite-based observations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 453–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-453-2011, 2011. a
Mohammed, A. A., Guimond, J. A., Bense, V. F., Jamieson, R. C., McKenzie, J. M., and Kurylyk, B. L.: Mobilization of subsurface carbon pools driven by permafrost thaw and reactivation of groundwater flow: a virtual experiment, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 124036, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca701, 2022. a, b
NASA: Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), NASA [data set], https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA/, last access: 23 January 2023. a
Nash, D., Waliser, D., Guan, B., Ye, H., and Ralph, F. M.: The Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Extratropical and Polar Hydroclimate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 6804–6821, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028130, 2018. a
Ni, J., Wu, T., Zhu, X., Hu, G., Zou, D., Wu, X., Li, R., Xie, C., Qiao, Y., Pang, Q., Hao, J., and Yang, C.: Simulation of the Present and Future Projection of Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with Statistical and Machine Learning Models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033402, 2021. a
Nicolsky, D., Romanovsky, V., Alexeev, V., and Lawrence, D.: Improved modeling of permafrost dynamics in a GCM land-surface scheme, Geophys. Res. Lett, 34, L08501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029525, 2007. a, b
Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group: Pan-Arctic Evapotraspiration Data, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana [data set], http://files.ntsg.umt.edu/data/PA_Monthly_ET/, last access: 16 April 2023. a
Overland, J., Dunlea, E., Box, J. E., Corell, R., Forsius, M., Kattsov, V., Olsen, M. S., Pawlak, J., Reiersen, L.-O., and Wang, M.: The urgency of Arctic change, Polar Sci., 21, 6–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.11.008, 2019. a
Painter, S. L., Coon, E. T., Khattak, A. J., and Jastrow, J. D.: Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2212171120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2212171120, 2023. a, b, c
Peng, X., Zhang, T., Frauenfeld, O. W., Wang, K., Luo, D., Cao, B., Su, H., Jin, H., and Wu, Q.: Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 31, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0721.1, 2018. a
Peterson, B. J., Holmes, R. M., McClelland, J. W., Vörösmarty, C. J., Lammers, R. B., Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, I. A., and Rahmstorf, S.: Increasing River Discharge to the Arctic Ocean, Science, 298, 2171–2173, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1077445, 2002. a, b, c, d
Ran, Y., Li, X., Cheng, G., Che, J., Aalto, J., Karjalainen, O., Hjort, J., Luoto, M., Jin, H., Obu, J., Hori, M., Yu, Q., and Chang, X.: New high-resolution estimates of the permafrost thermal state and hydrothermal conditions over the Northern Hemisphere, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 865–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-865-2022, 2022 (data available at: https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/5093d9ff-a5fc-4f10-a53f-c01e7b781368/, last access: 3 February 2023). a, b, c, d
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Laaksonen, A.: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 168, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3, 2022. a
Rawlins, M. and Karmalkar, A.: Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980–2100. Quantifying Variability and Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon Exported to Arctic Coastal Margins of North America, ESS-DIVE repository [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.15485/2290364, 2024. a
Rawlins, M. A.: Increasing freshwater and dissolved organic carbon flows to Northwest Alaska’s Elson lagoon, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 105014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2288, 2021. a, b, c
Rawlins, M. A., Lammers, R. B., Frolking, S., Fekete, B. M., and Vörösmarty, C. J.: Simulating Pan-Arctic Runoff with a Macro-Scale Terrestrial Water Balance Model, Hydrol. Process., 17, 2521–2539, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1271, 2003. a, b
Rawlins, M. A., Steele, M., Holland, M. M., Adam, J. C., Cherry, J. E., Francis, J. A., Groisman, P. Y., Hinzman, L. D., Huntington, T. G., Kane, D. L., Kmball, J. S., Kwok, R., Lammers, R. B., Lee, C. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., McDonald, K. C., Podest, E., Pundsack, J. W., Rudels, B., Serreze, M. C., Shiklomanov, A., Skagseth, Ø., Troy, T. J., Vörösmarty, C. J., Wensnahan, M., Wood, E. F., Woodgate, R., Yang, D., Zhang, K., and Zhang, T.: Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations, J. Climate, 23, 5715–5737, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1, 2010. a, b, c, d
Rawlins, M. A., Nicolsky, D. J., McDonald, K. C., and Romanovsky, V. E.: Simulating soil freeze/thaw dynamics with an improved pan-Arctic water balance model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, 659–675, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20045, 2013. a, b
Rawlins, M. A., Cai, L., Stuefer, S. L., and Nicolsky, D.: Changing characteristics of runoff and freshwater export from watersheds draining northern Alaska, The Cryosphere, 13, 3337–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3337-2019, 2019. a, b, c
Rawlins, M. A., Connolly, C. T., and McClelland, J. W.: Modeling Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Carbon Loading to Western Arctic Rivers, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo, 126, e2021JG006420, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006420, 2021. a, b
Sazonova, T. S. and Romanovsky, V. E.: A model for regional-scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures, Permafrost Periglac., 14, 125–139, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.449, 2003. a
Schroeder, R., McDonald, K. C., Zimmerman, R., Podest, E., and Rawlins, M.: North Eurasian Inundation Mapping with Passive and Active Microwave Remote Sensing, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 015003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/015003, 2010. a
Schwab, M. S., Hilton, R. G., Raymond, P. A., Haghipour, N., Amos, E., Tank, S. E., Holmes, R. M., Tipper, E. T., and Eglinton, T. I.: An Abrupt Aging of Dissolved Organic Carbon in Large Arctic Rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088823, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088823, 2020. a
Serreze, M. C. and Meier, W. N.: The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1436, 36–53, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13856, 2019. a
Shapiro, S. S. and Wilk, M. B.: An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples), Biometrika, 52, 591–611, https://doi.org/10.2307/2333709, 1965. a
Shiklomanov, A. I., Lammers, R. B., Lettenmaier, D. P., Polischuk, Y. M., Savichev, O. G., Smith, L. C., and Chernokulsky, A. V.: Hydrological Changes: Historical Analysis, Contemporary Status, and Future Projections, Regional Environmental Changes in Siberia and Their Global Consequences, Springer, 111–154, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4569-8_4, 2013. a
Shiklomanov, I. A. and Shiklomanov, A. I.: Climatic Change and Dynamics of River Discharge into the Arctic Ocean, Water Resour., 30, 593–601, 2003. a
Shiklomanov, I. A., Shiklomanov, A. I., Lammers, R. B., Peterson, B. J., and Vörösmarty, C. J.: The dynamics of river water inflow to the Arctic Ocean, in: The Freshwater Budget of the Arctic Ocean, edited by: Lewis, E. L., Jones, E. P., Lemke, P., Prowse, T. D., and Wadhams, P., 281–296, Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, 2000. a
Sjöberg, Y., Jan, A., Painter, S. L., Coon, E. T., Carey, M. P., O'Donnell, J. A., and Koch, J. C.: Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR027463, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027463, 2021. a
Slater, A. G. and Lawrence, D. M.: Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models, J. Climate, 26, 5608–5623, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00341.1, 2013. a
Smith, L. C., Sheng, Y., MacDonald, G. M., and Hinzman, L. D.: Disappearing Arctic Lakes, Science, 308, 1429, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005518, 2005. a
Spencer, R. G., Mann, P. J., Dittmar, T., Eglinton, T. I., McIntyre, C., Holmes, R. M., Zimov, N., and Stubbins, A.: Detecting the signature of permafrost thaw in Arctic rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2830–2835, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063498, 2015. a
St. Jacques, J. M. and Sauchyn, D. J.: Increasing winter baseflow and mean annual streamflow from possible permafrost thawing in the Northwest Territories, Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035822, 2009. a, b
Streletskiy, D. A., Tananaev, N. I., Opel, T., Shiklomanov, N. I., Nyland, K. E., Streletskaya, I. D., Tokarev, I., and Shiklomanov, A. I.: Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 095003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095003, 2015. a
Striegl, R. G., Aiken, G. R., Dornblaser, M. M., Raymond, P. A., and Wickland, K. P.: A decrease in discharge-normalized DOC export by the Yukon River during summer through autumn, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024413, 2005. a
Stroeve, J. and Notz, D.: Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 103001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56, 2018. a
Sturm, M. J., Holmgren, J., and Liston, G. E.: A Seasonal Snow Cover Classification System for Local to Global Applications, J. Climate, 8, 1261–1283, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1261:ASSCCS>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a
Tananaev, N., Makarieva, O., and Lebedeva, L.: Trends in annual and extreme flows in the Lena River basin, Northern Eurasia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10764–10772, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070796, 2016. a
Tananaev, N., Teisserenc, R., and Debolskiy, M.: Permafrost Hydrology Research Domain: Process-Based Adjustment, Hydrology, 7, 6, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7010006, 2020. a
Tank, S. E., Striegl, R. G., McClelland, J. W., and Kokelj, S. V.: Multi-decadal increases in dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity flux from the Mackenzie drainage basin to the Arctic Ocean, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 054015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054015, 2016. a
Tank, S. E., McClelland, J. W., Spencer, R. G., Shiklomanov, A. I., Suslova, A., Moatar, F., Amon, R. M., Cooper, L. W., Elias, G., Gordeev, V. V., Guay, C., Gurtovaya, T. Y., Kosmenko, L. S., Mutter, E. A., Peterson, B. J., Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B., Raymond, P. A., Schuster, P. F., Scott, L., Staples, R., Striegl, R. G., Tretiakov, M., Zhulidov, A. V., Zimov, N., Zimov, S., and Holmes, R. M.: Recent trends in the chemistry of major northern rivers signal widespread Arctic change, Nat. Geosci., 16, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01247-7, 2023. a
Wagner, A., Lohmann, G., and Prange, M.: Arctic river discharge trends since 7 ka BP, Global Planet. Change, 79, 48–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.07.006, 2011. a
Walsh, J. E., Chapman, W. L., Romanovsky, V., Christensen, J. H., and Stendel, M.: Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland, J. Climate, 21, 6156–6174, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2163.1, 2008. a
Walvoord, M. A. and Kurylyk, B. L.: Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost–A review, Vadose Zone J., 15, vzj2016.01.0010, https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2016.01.0010, 2016. a
Walvoord, M. A. and Striegl, R. G.: Increased groundwater to stream discharge from permafrost thawing in the Yukon River basin: Potential impacts on lateral export of carbon and nitrogen, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030216, 2007. a
Wang, P., Huang, Q., Pozdniakov, S. P., Liu, S., Ma, N., Wang, T., Zhang, Y., Yu, J., Xie, J., Fu, G., Frolova, N. L., and Liu, C.: Potential role of permafrost thaw on increasing Siberian river discharge, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 034046, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe326, 2021. a
Wang, Y.-R., Hessen, D. O., Samset, B. H., and Stordal, F.: Evaluating global and regional land warming trends in the past decades with both MODIS and ERA5-Land land surface temperature data, Remote Sens. Environ., 280, 113181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.113181, 2022. a
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.: The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISI–MIP): project framework, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014. a
Willmott, C. J. and Matsuura, K.: Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance, Clim. Res., 30, 79–82, 2005. a
Willmott, C. J. and Matsuura, K.: Terrestrial Precipitation: 1900–2008 Gridded Monthly Time Series, Version 2.01, https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.UDel_AirT_Precip.html (last access: 3 February 2023), 2009. a
Woo, M.-K., Kane, D. L., Carey, S. K., and Yang, D.: Progress in permafrost hydrology in the new millennium, Permafrost Periglac., 19, 237–254, https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.613, 2008. a, b
Yi, Y., Chen, R. H., Kimball, J. S., Moghaddam, M., Xu, X., Euskirchen, E. S., Das, N., and Miller, C. E.: Potential Satellite Monitoring of Surface Organic Soil Properties in Arctic Tundra From SMAP, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR030957, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030957, 2022. a
Zhang, K., Kimball, J. S., Mu, Q., Jones, L. A., Goetz, S. J., and Running, S. W.: Satellite based analysis of northern ET trends and associated changes in the regional water balance from 1983 to 2005, J. Hydrol., 379, 92–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.047, 2009. a
Zhang, P., Chen, G., Ting, M., Ruby Leung, L., Guan, B., and Li, L.: More frequent atmospheric rivers slow the seasonal recovery of Arctic sea ice, Nat. Clim. Change., 13, 266–273, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01599-3, 2023. a
Zhang, S.-M., Mu, C.-C., Li, Z.-L., Dong, W.-W., Wang, X.-Y., Streletskaya, I., Grebenets, V., Sokratov, S., Kizyakov, A., and Wu, X.-D.: Export of nutrients and suspended solids from major Arctic rivers and their response to permafrost degradation, Adv. Clim. Chang., 12, 466–474, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.06.002, 2021. a
Zhang, X., He, J., Zhang, J., Polyakov, I., Gerdes, R., Inoue, J., and Wu, P.: Enhanced poleward moisture transport and amplified northern high-latitude wetting trend, Nat. Clim. Change., 3, 47–51, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1631, 2013. a, b
Editorial statement
This study provides new estimates of historical and projected changes in pan-Arctic runoff, with emphasis on the impact of permafrost changes and sub-surface flows on large scale hydrology. The impact of permafrost change on hydrological processes is a key uncertainty facing the cold regions hydrology community, and requires comprehensive model-based analysis as presented in this study. The analysis also addresses changes to the terrestrial runoff contribution to the freshwater budget of the Arctic, and so is of interest to a wide range of disciplines.
This study provides new estimates of historical and projected changes in pan-Arctic runoff, with...
Short summary
Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We...
