Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Mar 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 05 Mar 2024
| 05 Mar 2024
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming
Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
Ambarish V. Karmalkar
Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, USA
Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
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- Intensified melting in the Arctic lower troposphere from 1979 to 2023 Y. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.003
- Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System V. Brovkin et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9
- Multi-scale snow depth mapping in Interior Alaska using remote sensing D. Brodylo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.101888
- Resolving the climate-controlled hydrological regime in a model permafrost catchment for future management strategies Ł. Stachnik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125189
- Climate warming is shifting northern aquatic ecotones M. Alibert et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-37392-3
- Attribution of Hydrologic-Cycle Changes to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Shaying River Basin, China J. Xie et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18101238
- Lena River biogeochemistry captured by a 4.5-year high-frequency sampling program B. Juhls et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1-2025
- Arctic hydrology: a water balance study of Imnavait Creek and Kuparuk River watersheds, Alaska E. Youcha & S. Stuefer https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2025-0033
- Current and projected effects of climate change in cryosphere microbial ecosystems S. Sugden et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-025-01251-1
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- Abrupt shift in elevation-dependent snowmelt contribution in the Central Tibetan Plateau Z. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103634
- Water tracer model-assessed contributions of source waters to changing circumpolar Arctic terrestrial evapotranspiration and river discharge H. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134379
- Shifting streamflow regimes in the arctic: a multi-basin analysis using the VIC model M. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135611
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 08 Aug 2026
Editorial statement
This study provides new estimates of historical and projected changes in pan-Arctic runoff, with emphasis on the impact of permafrost changes and sub-surface flows on large scale hydrology. The impact of permafrost change on hydrological processes is a key uncertainty facing the cold regions hydrology community, and requires comprehensive model-based analysis as presented in this study. The analysis also addresses changes to the terrestrial runoff contribution to the freshwater budget of the Arctic, and so is of interest to a wide range of disciplines.
This study provides new estimates of historical and projected changes in pan-Arctic runoff, with...
Short summary
Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We...
