The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
Research article
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05 Mar 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 05 Mar 2024

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Michael A. Rawlins and Ambarish V. Karmalkar

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This study provides new estimates of historical and projected changes in pan-Arctic runoff, with emphasis on the impact of permafrost changes and sub-surface flows on large scale hydrology. The impact of permafrost change on hydrological processes is a key uncertainty facing the cold regions hydrology community, and requires comprehensive model-based analysis as presented in this study. The analysis also addresses changes to the terrestrial runoff contribution to the freshwater budget of the Arctic, and so is of interest to a wide range of disciplines.
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Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
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Northern hydrology in transition – impacts of a changing...