Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024
Research article
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05 Mar 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 05 Mar 2024

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Michael A. Rawlins and Ambarish V. Karmalkar

Data sets

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100. Quantifying Variability and Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon Exported to Arctic Coastal Margins of North America, ESS-DIVE repository Michael A. Rawlins https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/ess-dive-9d7ec367652ba43-20240201T162009168

WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5). V. 1.0 Stefan Lange https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2019.023

Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) NASA https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA/

ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5

Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions, Version 2 J. Brown et al. https://doi.org/10.7265/skbg-kf16

New high-resolution estimates of the permafrost thermal state and hydrothermal conditions over the Northern Hemisphere (https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/5093d9ff-a5fc-4f10-a53f-c01e7b781368/) Y. Ran et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-865-2022

Pan-Arctic Evapotraspiration Data Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group http://files.ntsg.umt.edu/data/PA_Monthly_ET/

WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5 v2.0) S. Lange et al. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.342217

Model code and software

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100. Quantifying Variability and Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon Exported to Arctic Coastal Margins of North America M. Rawlins and A. Karmalkar https://doi.org/10.15485/2290364

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Co-editor-in-chief
This study provides new estimates of historical and projected changes in pan-Arctic runoff, with emphasis on the impact of permafrost changes and sub-surface flows on large scale hydrology. The impact of permafrost change on hydrological processes is a key uncertainty facing the cold regions hydrology community, and requires comprehensive model-based analysis as presented in this study. The analysis also addresses changes to the terrestrial runoff contribution to the freshwater budget of the Arctic, and so is of interest to a wide range of disciplines.
Short summary
Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.