Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1623-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 13 Apr 2023
| 13 Apr 2023
Cosmogenic-nuclide data from Antarctic nunataks can constrain past ice sheet instabilities
Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Berkeley Geochronology Center, Berkeley, CA, USA
Greg Balco
Berkeley Geochronology Center, Berkeley, CA, USA
Hannah Buchband
Berkeley Geochronology Center, Berkeley, CA, USA
Perry Spector
Berkeley Geochronology Center, Berkeley, CA, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Greg Balco, Andrew J. Conant, Dallas D. Reilly, Dallin Barton, Chelsea D. Willett, and Brett H. Isselhardt
Geochronology Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2024-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2024-9, 2024
Preprint under review for GChron
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes how krypton isotopes produced by nuclear fission can be used to determine the age of microscopic particles of used nuclear fuel. This is potentially useful for international safeguards applications aimed at tracking and identifying nuclear materials, as well as geoscience applications involving dating post-1950's sediments or understanding environmental transport of nuclear materials.
Gordon Bromley, Greg Balco, Margaret Jackson, Allie Balter-Kennedy, and Holly Thomas
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-21, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed a geologic record of East Antarctic Ice Sheet thickness from deposits at Otway Massif to assess directly how Earth’s largest ice sheet responds to warmer-than-present climate. Our record confirms the long-term dominance of a cold polar climate but lacks a clear ice sheet response to the Mid Pliocene Warm Period, a common analogue for the future. Instead, an absence of moraines from the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene suggests the ice sheet was less extensive than present at that time.
Marie Bergelin, Greg Balco, Lee B. Corbett, and Paul R. Bierman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-702, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cosmogenic nuclides, such as 10Be, are rare isotopes produced in rocks when exposed at Earth’s surface and are valuable for understanding surface processes and landscape evolution. However, 10Be is usually measured in quartz minerals. Here we present advances in efficiently extracting and measuring 10Be in the pyroxene mineral. These measurements expand the use of 10Be as a dating tool for new rock types and provide opportunities to understand landscape processes in areas that lack quartz.
Greg Balco, Alan J. Hidy, William T. Struble, and Joshua J. Roering
Geochronology, 6, 71–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-71-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-71-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new method of reconstructing the long-term, pre-observational frequency and/or intensity of wildfires in forested landscapes using trace concentrations of the noble gases helium and neon that are formed in soil mineral grains by cosmic-ray bombardment of the Earth's surface.
Allie Balter-Kennedy, Joerg M. Schaefer, Greg Balco, Meredith A. Kelly, Michael R. Kaplan, Roseanne Schwartz, Bryan Oakley, Nicolás E. Young, Jean Hanley, and Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-241, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We date sedimentary deposits indicating the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet was at or near its southernmost extent from ~26,000 to 21,000 years ago when sea-level was lowest and other climate records indicate glacial conditions. Slow deglaciation began ~22,000 years ago alongside a slow but steady rise in modeled local summer temperature, but significant deglaciation in the region did not begin until ~18,000 years ago when atmospheric CO2 began to rise, signaling the end of the last ice age.
Benoit S. Lecavalier, Lev Tarasov, Greg Balco, Perry Spector, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Christo Buizert, Catherine Ritz, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Robert Mulvaney, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Michael J. Bentley, and Jonathan Bamber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3573–3596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3573-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution constraint database version 2 (AntICE2) consists of a large variety of observations that constrain the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last glacial cycle. This includes observations of past ice sheet extent, past ice thickness, past relative sea level, borehole temperature profiles, and present-day bedrock displacement rates. The database is intended to improve our understanding of past Antarctic changes and for ice sheet model calibrations.
Allie Balter-Kennedy, Joerg M. Schaefer, Roseanne Schwartz, Jennifer L. Lamp, Laura Penrose, Jennifer Middleton, Jean Hanley, Bouchaïb Tibari, Pierre-Henri Blard, Gisela Winckler, Alan J. Hidy, and Greg Balco
Geochronology, 5, 301–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cosmogenic nuclides like 10Be are rare isotopes created in rocks exposed at the Earth’s surface and can be used to understand glacier histories and landscape evolution. 10Be is usually measured in the mineral quartz. Here, we show that 10Be can be reliably measured in the mineral pyroxene. We use the measurements to determine exposure ages and understand landscape processes in rocks from Antarctica that do not have quartz, expanding the use of this method to new rock types.
Greg Balco, Nathan Brown, Keir Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Jonathan Adams, Scott Braddock, Seth Campbell, Brent Goehring, Joanne S. Johnson, Dylan H. Rood, Klaus Wilcken, Brenda Hall, and John Woodward
The Cryosphere, 17, 1787–1801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Samples of bedrock recovered from below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet show that part of the ice sheet was thinner several thousand years ago than it is now and subsequently thickened. This is important because of concern that present ice thinning in this region may lead to rapid, irreversible sea level rise. The past episode of thinning at this site that took place in a similar, although not identical, climate was not irreversible; however, reversal required at least 3000 years to complete.
Jonathan R. Adams, Joanne S. Johnson, Stephen J. Roberts, Philippa J. Mason, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Klaus Wilcken, Greg Balco, Brent Goehring, Brenda Hall, John Woodward, and Dylan H. Rood
The Cryosphere, 16, 4887–4905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are experiencing significant ice loss. Geological data provide historical context for ongoing ice loss in West Antarctica, including constraints on likely future ice sheet behaviour in response to climatic warming. We present evidence from rare isotopes measured in rocks collected from an outcrop next to Pope Glacier. These data suggest that Pope Glacier thinned faster and sooner after the last ice age than previously thought.
Natacha Gribenski, Marissa M. Tremblay, Pierre G. Valla, Greg Balco, Benny Guralnik, and David L. Shuster
Geochronology, 4, 641–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We apply quartz 3He paleothermometry along two deglaciation profiles in the European Alps to reconstruct temperature evolution since the Last Glacial Maximum. We observe a 3He thermal signal clearly colder than today in all bedrock surface samples exposed prior the Holocene. Current uncertainties in 3He diffusion kinetics do not permit distinguishing if this signal results from Late Pleistocene ambient temperature changes or from recent ground temperature variation due to permafrost degradation.
Marie Bergelin, Jaakko Putkonen, Greg Balco, Daniel Morgan, Lee B. Corbett, and Paul R. Bierman
The Cryosphere, 16, 2793–2817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier ice contains information on past climate and can help us understand how the world changes through time. We have found and sampled a buried ice mass in Antarctica that is much older than most ice on Earth and difficult to date. Therefore, we developed a new dating application which showed the ice to be 3 million years old. Our new dating solution will potentially help to date other ancient ice masses since such old glacial ice could yield data on past environmental conditions on Earth.
Mae Kate Campbell, Paul R. Bierman, Amanda H. Schmidt, Rita Sibello Hernández, Alejandro García-Moya, Lee B. Corbett, Alan J. Hidy, Héctor Cartas Águila, Aniel Guillén Arruebarrena, Greg Balco, David Dethier, and Marc Caffee
Geochronology, 4, 435–453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used cosmogenic radionuclides in detrital river sediment to measure erosion rates of watersheds in central Cuba; erosion rates are lower than rock dissolution rates in lowland watersheds. Data from two different cosmogenic nuclides suggest that some basins may have a mixed layer deeper than is typically modeled and could have experienced significant burial after or during exposure. We conclude that significant mass loss may occur at depth through chemical weathering processes.
Joanne S. Johnson, Ryan A. Venturelli, Greg Balco, Claire S. Allen, Scott Braddock, Seth Campbell, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda L. Hall, Peter D. Neff, Keir A. Nichols, Dylan H. Rood, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and John Woodward
The Cryosphere, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have suggested that some portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet were less extensive than present in the last few thousand years. We discuss how past ice loss and regrowth during this time would leave its mark on geological and glaciological records and suggest ways in which future studies could detect such changes. Determining timing of ice loss and gain around Antarctica and conditions under which they occurred is critical for preparing for future climate-warming-induced changes.
Jamey Stutz, Andrew Mackintosh, Kevin Norton, Ross Whitmore, Carlo Baroni, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Richard S. Jones, Greg Balco, Maria Cristina Salvatore, Stefano Casale, Jae Il Lee, Yeong Bae Seong, Robert McKay, Lauren J. Vargo, Daniel Lowry, Perry Spector, Marcus Christl, Susan Ivy Ochs, Luigia Di Nicola, Maria Iarossi, Finlay Stuart, and Tom Woodruff
The Cryosphere, 15, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the long-term behaviour of ice sheets is essential to projecting future changes due to climate change. In this study, we use rocks deposited along the margin of the David Glacier, one of the largest glacier systems in the world, to reveal a rapid thinning event initiated over 7000 years ago and endured for ~ 2000 years. Using physical models, we show that subglacial topography and ocean heat are important drivers for change along this sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Greg Balco, Benjamin D. DeJong, John C. Ridge, Paul R. Bierman, and Dylan H. Rood
Geochronology, 3, 1–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The North American Varve Chronology (NAVC) is a sequence of 5659 annual sedimentary layers that were deposited in proglacial lakes adjacent to the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet ca. 12 500–18 200 years ago. We attempt to synchronize this record with Greenland ice core and other climate records that cover the same time period by detecting variations in global fallout of atmospherically produced beryllium-10 in NAVC sediments.
Allie Balter-Kennedy, Gordon Bromley, Greg Balco, Holly Thomas, and Margaret S. Jackson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2647–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2647-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2647-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We describe new geologic evidence from Antarctica that demonstrates changes in East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) extent over the past ~ 15 million years. Our data show that the EAIS was a persistent feature in the Transantarctic Mountains for much of that time, including some (but not all) times when global temperature may have been warmer than today. Overall, our results comprise a long-term record of EAIS change and may provide useful constraints for ice sheet models and sea-level estimates.
Greg Balco
Geochronology, 2, 169–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-169-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-169-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Geologic dating methods generally do not directly measure ages. Instead, interpreting a geochemical measurement as an age requires a middle layer of calculations and supporting data, and the fact that this layer continually improves is an obstacle to synoptic analysis of geochronological data. This paper describes a prototype data management and analysis system that addresses this obstacle by making the middle-layer calculations transparent and dynamic to the user.
Michal Ben-Israel, Ari Matmon, Alan J. Hidy, Yoav Avni, and Greg Balco
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 289–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-289-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Early-to-mid Miocene erosion rates were inferred using cosmogenic 21Ne measured in chert pebbles transported by the Miocene Hazeva River (~ 18 Ma). Miocene erosion rates are faster compared to Quaternary rates in the region. Faster Miocene erosion rates could be due to a response to topographic changes brought on by tectonic uplift, wetter climate in the region during the Miocene, or a combination of both.
Keir A. Nichols, Brent M. Goehring, Greg Balco, Joanne S. Johnson, Andrew S. Hein, and Claire Todd
The Cryosphere, 13, 2935–2951, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2935-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2935-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the history of ice masses at three locations in the Weddell Sea Embayment, Antarctica. We measured rare isotopes in material sourced from mountains overlooking the Slessor Glacier, Foundation Ice Stream, and smaller glaciers on the Lassiter Coast. We show that ice masses were between 385 and 800 m thicker during the last glacial cycle than they are at present. The ice masses were both hundreds of metres thicker and remained thicker closer to the present than was previously thought.
Greg Balco, Kimberly Blisniuk, and Alan Hidy
Geochronology, 1, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article applies a new geochemical dating method to determine the age of sedimentary deposits useful in reconstructing slip rates on a major fault system.
Perry Spector, John Stone, David Pollard, Trevor Hillebrand, Cameron Lewis, and Joel Gombiner
The Cryosphere, 12, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2741-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2741-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Cosmogenic-nuclide analyses in bedrock recovered from below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have the potential to establish whether and when large-scale deglaciation occurred in the past. Here we (i) discuss the criteria and considerations for subglacial drill sites, (ii) evaluate candidate sites in West Antarctica, and (iii) describe reconnaissance at three West Antarctic sites, focusing on the Pirrit Hills, which we present as a case study of site selection on the scale of an individual nunatak.
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans-Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model
Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022
Widespread slowdown in thinning rates of West Antarctic ice shelves
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part B: Unsupervised learning for source process characterisation
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part A: Event detection for cryoseismology
Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)
High mid-Holocene accumulation rates over West Antarctica inferred from a pervasive ice-penetrating radar reflector
Seasonal and interannual variability of the landfast ice mass balance between 2009 and 2018 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
Megadunes in Antarctica: migration and characterization from remote and in situ observations
Slowdown of Shirase Glacier, East Antarctica, caused by strengthening alongshore winds
Timescales of outlet-glacier flow with negligible basal friction: theory, observations and modeling
Antarctic contribution to future sea level from ice shelf basal melt as constrained by ice discharge observations
Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries
New 10Be exposure ages improve Holocene ice sheet thinning history near the grounding line of Pope Glacier, Antarctica
Antarctic surface climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model version 2 during the satellite era and into the future (1979–2100)
Inverting ice surface elevation and velocity for bed topography and slipperiness beneath Thwaites Glacier
Hysteretic evolution of ice rises and ice rumples in response to variations in sea level
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Sensitivity of the Ross Ice Shelf to environmental and glaciological controls
High-resolution subglacial topography around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, based on ground-based radar surveys over 30 years
Cosmogenic nuclide dating of two stacked ice masses: Ong Valley, Antarctica
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves
Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf
Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica
Review article: Existing and potential evidence for Holocene grounding line retreat and readvance in Antarctica
Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion
Net effect of ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions reduces simulated transient Miocene Antarctic ice-sheet variability
Sensitivity of Antarctic surface climate to a new spectral snow albedo and radiative transfer scheme in RACMO2.3p3
Overestimation and adjustment of Antarctic ice flow velocity fields reconstructed from historical satellite imagery
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2362, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice-flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there's some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice-flow models.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2433, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans-Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet, by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1341, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue, and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1340, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging because of low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here, we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from Whillans Ice Stream then evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Laurie Padman, Emilie Klein, Peter D. Bromirski, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica's ice shelves (the floating extension of the ice sheet) help regulate ice flow. As ice shelves thin or lose contact with the bedrock, the upstream ice tends to accelerate, resulting in increased mass loss. Here, we use an ice sheet model to simulate the effect of seasonal sea surface height variations and see if we can reproduce observed seasonal variability of ice velocity on the ice shelf. When correctly parameterised, the model fits the observations well.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Julien A. Bodart, Robert G. Bingham, Duncan A. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, David W. Ashmore, Enrica Quartini, Andrew S. Hein, David G. Vaughan, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 17, 1497–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating how West Antarctica will change in response to future climatic change depends on our understanding of past ice processes. Here, we use a reflector widely visible on airborne radar data across West Antarctica to estimate accumulation rates over the past 4700 years. By comparing our estimates with current atmospheric data, we find that accumulation rates were 18 % greater than modern rates. This has implications for our understanding of past ice processes in the region.
Na Li, Ruibo Lei, Petra Heil, Bin Cheng, Minghu Ding, Zhongxiang Tian, and Bingrui Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 917–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-917-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The observed annual maximum landfast ice (LFI) thickness off Zhongshan (Davis) was 1.59±0.17 m (1.64±0.08 m). Larger interannual and local spatial variabilities for the seasonality of LFI were identified at Zhongshan, with the dominant influencing factors of air temperature anomaly, snow atop, local topography and wind regime, and oceanic heat flux. The variability of LFI properties across the study domain prevailed at interannual timescales, over any trend during the recent decades.
Giacomo Traversa, Davide Fugazza, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 17, 427–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Megadunes are fields of huge snow dunes present in Antarctica and on other planets, important as they present mass loss on the leeward side (glazed snow), on a continent characterized by mass gain. Here, we studied megadunes using remote data and measurements acquired during past field expeditions. We quantified their physical properties and migration and demonstrated that they migrate against slope and wind. We further proposed automatic detections of the glazed snow on their leeward side.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Chris R. Stokes, Adrian Jenkins, Jim R. Jordan, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations have shown that the Shirase Glacier catchment in East Antarctica has been gaining mass over the past 2 decades, a trend largely attributed to increased snowfall. Our multi-decadal observations of Shirase Glacier show that ocean forcing has also contributed to some of this recent mass gain. This has been caused by strengthening easterly winds reducing the inflow of warm water underneath the Shirase ice tongue, causing the glacier to slow down and thicken.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 327–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of glaciers with geometric similarity. According to the relation, thicker and wider glaciers on a steeper bed slope have a much faster timescale than shallower, narrower glaciers on a flatter bed slope. The relation is supported by observations and simplified numerical simulations. We combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 instability-prone Antarctic outlet glaciers.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Jonathan R. Adams, Joanne S. Johnson, Stephen J. Roberts, Philippa J. Mason, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Klaus Wilcken, Greg Balco, Brent Goehring, Brenda Hall, John Woodward, and Dylan H. Rood
The Cryosphere, 16, 4887–4905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4887-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in West Antarctica are experiencing significant ice loss. Geological data provide historical context for ongoing ice loss in West Antarctica, including constraints on likely future ice sheet behaviour in response to climatic warming. We present evidence from rare isotopes measured in rocks collected from an outcrop next to Pope Glacier. These data suggest that Pope Glacier thinned faster and sooner after the last ice age than previously thought.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Helen Ockenden, Robert G. Bingham, Andrew Curtis, and Daniel Goldberg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3867–3887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hills and valleys hidden under the ice of Thwaites Glacier have an impact on ice flow and future ice loss, but there are not many three-dimensional observations of their location or size. We apply a mathematical theory to new high-resolution observations of the ice surface to predict the bed topography beneath the ice. There is a good correlation with ice-penetrating radar observations. The method may be useful in areas with few direct observations or as a further constraint for other methods.
A. Clara J. Henry, Reinhard Drews, Clemens Schannwell, and Vjeran Višnjević
The Cryosphere, 16, 3889–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3889-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used a 3D, idealised model to study features in coastal Antarctica called ice rises and ice rumples. These features regulate the rate of ice flow into the ocean. We show that when sea level is raised or lowered, the size of these features and the ice flow pattern can change. We find that the features depend on the ice history and do not necessarily fully recover after an equal increase and decrease in sea level. This shows that it is important to initialise models with accurate ice geometry.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Francesca Baldacchino, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, and Alena Malyarenko
The Cryosphere, 16, 3723–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf will evolve in a warming world is important to the future stability of Antarctica. It remains unclear what changes could drive the largest mass loss in the future and where places are most likely to trigger larger mass losses. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing that the RIS is sensitive to changes in environmental and glaciological controls at regions which are currently experiencing changes. These regions need to be monitored in a warming world.
Shun Tsutaki, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kotaro Fukui, Hideaki Motoyama, Yu Hoshina, Fumio Nakazawa, Takashi Obase, Hiroshi Ohno, Ikumi Oyabu, Fuyuki Saito, Konosuke Sugiura, and Toshitaka Suzuki
The Cryosphere, 16, 2967–2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We constructed an ice thickness map across the Dome Fuji region, East Antarctica, from improved radar data and previous data that had been collected since the late 1980s. The data acquired using the improved radar systems allowed basal topography to be identified with higher accuracy. The new ice thickness data show the bedrock topography, particularly the complex terrain of subglacial valleys and highlands south of Dome Fuji, with substantially high detail.
Marie Bergelin, Jaakko Putkonen, Greg Balco, Daniel Morgan, Lee B. Corbett, and Paul R. Bierman
The Cryosphere, 16, 2793–2817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier ice contains information on past climate and can help us understand how the world changes through time. We have found and sampled a buried ice mass in Antarctica that is much older than most ice on Earth and difficult to date. Therefore, we developed a new dating application which showed the ice to be 3 million years old. Our new dating solution will potentially help to date other ancient ice masses since such old glacial ice could yield data on past environmental conditions on Earth.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Jeannette Xiu Wen Wan, Natalya Gomez, Konstantin Latychev, and Holly Kyeore Han
The Cryosphere, 16, 2203–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the grid resolution necessary to accurately model the Earth deformation and sea-level change associated with West Antarctic ice mass changes. We find that results converge at higher resolutions, and errors of less than 5 % can be achieved with a 7.5 km grid. Our results also indicate that error due to grid resolution is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous deformation in low-viscosity regions.
Joanne S. Johnson, Ryan A. Venturelli, Greg Balco, Claire S. Allen, Scott Braddock, Seth Campbell, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda L. Hall, Peter D. Neff, Keir A. Nichols, Dylan H. Rood, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and John Woodward
The Cryosphere, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have suggested that some portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet were less extensive than present in the last few thousand years. We discuss how past ice loss and regrowth during this time would leave its mark on geological and glaciological records and suggest ways in which future studies could detect such changes. Determining timing of ice loss and gain around Antarctica and conditions under which they occurred is critical for preparing for future climate-warming-induced changes.
Stephen J. Chuter, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Jonathan Rougier, Geoffrey Dawson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 1349–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We find the Antarctic Peninsula to have a mean mass loss of 19 ± 1.1 Gt yr−1 over the 2003–2019 period, driven predominantly by changes in ice dynamic flow like due to changes in ocean forcing. This long-term record is crucial to ascertaining the region’s present-day contribution to sea level rise, with the understanding of driving processes enabling better future predictions. Our statistical approach enables us to estimate this previously poorly surveyed regions mass balance more accurately.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Rongxing Li, Yuan Cheng, Haotian Cui, Menglian Xia, Xiaohan Yuan, Zhen Li, Shulei Luo, and Gang Qiao
The Cryosphere, 16, 737–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Historical velocity maps of the Antarctic ice sheet are valuable for long-term ice flow dynamics analysis. We developed an innovative method for correcting overestimations existing in historical velocity maps. The method is validated rigorously using high-quality Landsat 8 images and then successfully applied to historical velocity maps. The historical change signatures are preserved and can be used for assessing the impact of long-term global climate changes on the ice sheet.
Cited articles
Balco, G.: The absence of evidence of absence of the East Antarctic Ice
Sheet, Geology, 43, 943–944, https://doi.org/10.1130/focus102015.1, 2015.
Balco, G., Stone, J. O. H., Sliwinski, M. G., and Todd, C.: Features of the
glacial history of the Transantarctic Mountains inferred from cosmogenic
26Al, 10Be and 21Ne concentrations in bedrock surfaces, Antarct. Sci., 26,
708–723, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102014000261, 2014.
Balco, G., Buchband, H., and Halberstadt, A. R. W.: 5 million year transient
Antarctic ice sheet model run with “desensitized” marine ice margin
instabilities, U.S. Antarctic Program Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.15784/601601, 2022a.
Balco, G., Buchband, H., and Halberstadt, A. R. W.: 5 million year transient
Antarctic ice sheet model run with “sensitized” marine ice margin
instabilities, U.S. Antarctic Program Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.15784/601602, 2022b.
Bart, P. J. and Anderson, J. B.: Relative temporal stability of the
Antarctic ice sheets during the late Neogene based on the minimum frequency
of outer shelf grounding events, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 182, 259–272,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(00)00257-0, 2000.
Briggs, R. D. and Tarasov, L.: How to evaluate model-derived deglaciation
chronologies: A case study using Antarctica, Quat. Sci. Rev., 63, 109–127,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.11.021, 2013.
Brook, E. J., Brown, E. T., Kurz, M. D., Ackert, R. P., Raisbeck, G. M., and
Yiou, F.: Constraints on age, erosion, and uplift of Neogene glacial
deposits in the Transantarctic Mountains determined from in situ cosmogenic
10Be and 26Al, Geology, 23, 1063–1066,
https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1995)023<1063:COAEAU>2.3.CO;2, 1995.
Bruno, L. A., Baur, H., Graf, T., Schlüchter, C., Signer, P., and
Wieler, R.: Dating of Sirius Group tillites in the Antarctic Dry Valleys
with cosmogenic3He and 21Ne, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 147, 37–54,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(97)00003-4, 1997.
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and
future sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016.
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez,
N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., Kopp, R. E., Li,
D., and Dutton, A.: The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea level rise
from Antarctica, Nature, 593, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0,
2021.
Dowsett, H. J., Robinson, M. M., and Foley, K. M.: Pliocene three-dimensional global ocean temperature reconstruction, Clim. Past, 5, 769–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-769-2009, 2009.
Dunai, T. J.: Cosmogenic nuclides: principles, concepts and applications in
the earth surface sciences, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804519, 2010.
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U.,
DeConto, R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise
due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science,
349, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015.
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini,
O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and le Brocq, A. M.:
Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability,
Nat. Clim. Chang., 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014.
Fogwill, C. J., Bentley, M. J., Sugden, D. E., Kerr, A. R., and Kubik, P.
W.: Cosmogenic nuclides 10Be and 26Al imply limited Antarctic Ice Sheet
thickening and low erosion in the Shackleton Range for >1 m.y.,
Geology, 32, 265–268, https://doi.org/10.1130/G19795.1, 2004.
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013.
Gudmundsson, G. H., Paolo, F. S., Adusumilli, S., and Fricker, H. A.:
Instantaneous Antarctic ice sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13903–13909, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085027,
2019.
Hambrey, M. J., Glasser, N. F., McKelvey, B. C., Sugden, D. E., and Fink,
D.: Cenozoic landscape evolution of an East Antarctic oasis (Radok Lake
area, northern Prince Charles Mountains), and its implications for the
glacial and climatic history of Antarctica, Quat. Sci. Rev., 26, 598–626,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUASCIREV.2006.11.014, 2007.
Hein, A. S., Fogwill, C. J., Sugden, D. E., and Xu, S.: Glacial/interglacial
ice-stream stability in the Weddell Sea embayment, Antarctica, Earth Planet
Sci. Lett., 307, 211–221, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2011.04.037, 2011.
Hein, A. S., Fogwill, C. J., Sugden, D. E., and Xu, S.: Geological scatter
of cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages in the Shackleton Range, Antarctica:
Implications for glacial history, Quat. Geochronol., 19, 52–66,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUAGEO.2013.03.008, 2014.
Hillebrand, T. R., Stone, J. O., Koutnik, M., King, C., Conway, H., Hall, B., Nichols, K., Goehring, B., and Gillespie, M. K.: Holocene thinning of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers, Antarctica, and implications for grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, The Cryosphere, 15, 3329–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, 2021.
Huang, F., Liu, X., Kong, P., Fink, D., Ju, Y., Fang, A., Yu, L., Li, X.,
and Na, C.: Fluctuation history of the interior East Antarctic Ice Sheet
since mid-Pliocene, Antarct. Sci., 20, 197–203,
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102007000910, 2008.
Ivy-Ochs, S., Schlüchter, C., Kubik, P. W.,
Dittrich-Hannen, B., and Beer, J.: Minimum 10Be exposure ages of early
Pliocene for the Table Mountain plateau and the Sirius Group at Mount
Fleming, Dry Valleys, Antarctica | Geology | GeoScienceWorld,
Geology, 23, 1007–1010, 1995.
Jones, R. S., Norton, K. P., Mackintosh, A. N., Anderson, J. T. H., Kubik,
P., Vockenhuber, C., Wittmann, H., Fink, D., Wilson, G. S., Golledge, N. R.,
and McKay, R.: Cosmogenic nuclides constrain surface fluctuations of an East
Antarctic outlet glacier since the Pliocene, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 480,
75–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.09.014, 2017.
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., Howat, I. M., Floricioiu, D., Alley, R. B.,
Truffer, M., and Fahnestock, M.: Seasonal to decadal scale variations in the
surface velocity of Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland: Observation and
model-based analysis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 117, F02030,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002110, 2012.
Kong, P., Huang, F., Liu, X., Fink, D., Ding, L., and Lai, Q.: Late Miocene
ice sheet elevation in the Grove Mountains, East Antarctica, inferred from
cosmogenic 21Ne–10Be–26Al, Glob. Planet. Change, 72, 50–54,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2010.03.005, 2010.
Le Brocq, A. M., Payne, A. J., and Vieli, A.: An improved Antarctic dataset for high resolution numerical ice sheet models (ALBMAP v1), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 2, 247–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2-247-2010, 2010.
Levitus, S., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Baranova, O. K., Garcia, H. E.,
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Reagan, J. R., Seidov, D., Yarosh, E. S.,
and Zweng, M. M.: World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change
(0–2000 m), 1955–2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1–5,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051106, 2012.
Levy, R., Harwood, D., Florindo, F., Sangiorgi, F., Tripati, R., von
Eynatten, H., Gasson, E., Kuhn, G., Tripati, A., DeConto, R., Fielding, C.,
Field, B., Golledge, N., Mckay, R., Naish, T., Olney, M., Pollard, D.,
Schouten, S., Talarico, F., Warny, S., Willmott, V., Acton, G., Panter, K.,
Paulsen, T., and Taviani, M.: Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric
CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 3453–3458, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1516030113, 2016.
Li, G., Liu, X., Feixin, H., Ping, K., Fink, D., Lijie, W., and Aimin, F.:
Preliminary study on the erratic exposure ages of Grove Mountains, East
Antarctica, Chin. J. Polar. Res., 21, 265–271, 2009 (in Chinese).
Lilly, K.: Three million years of East Antarctic ice sheet history from in
situ cosmogenic nuclides in the Lambert-Amery Basin, Thesis, Australian National
University, https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/149854, 2008.
Lilly, K., Fink, D., Fabel, D., and Lambeck, K.: Pleistocene dynamics of the
interior East Antarctic ice sheet, Geology, 38, 703–706,
https://doi.org/10.1130/G31172X.1, 2010.
Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E.: A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57
globally distributed benthic D 18 O records, Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071, 2005.
Liu, X., Huang, F., Kong, P., Fang, A., Li, X., and Ju, Y.: History of ice
sheet elevation in East Antarctica: Paleoclimatic implications, Earth Planet
Sci. Lett., 290, 281–288, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2009.12.008, 2010.
Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., He, F., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R., Clark, P.
U., Carlson, A. E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D.,
Jacob, R., Kutzbach, J., and Cheng, J.: Transient Simulation of Last
Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bølling-Allerød Warming, Science, 325, 310–314, 2009.
Margerison, H. R., Phillips, W. M., Stuart, F. M., and Sugden, D. E.:
Cosmogenic 3He concentrations in ancient flood deposits from the Coombs
Hills, northern Dry Valleys, East Antarctica: interpreting exposure ages and
erosion rates, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 230, 163–175,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2004.11.007, 2005.
Martin, M. A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 5, 727–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-727-2011, 2011.
Mukhopadhyay, S., Ackert, R. P., Pope, A. E., Pollard, D., and Deconto, R.
M.: Miocene to recent ice elevation variations from the interior of the West
Antarctic ice sheet: Constraints from geologic observations , cosmogenic
nuclides and ice sheet modeling, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 337–338, 243–251,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.05.015, 2012.
Nichols, K. A., Goehring, B. M., Balco, G., Johnson, J. S., Hein, A. S., and Todd, C.: New Last Glacial Maximum ice thickness constraints for the Weddell Sea Embayment, Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 13, 2935–2951, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2935-2019, 2019.
Nick, F. M., van der Veen, C. J., Vieli, A., and Benn, D. I.: A physically
based calving model applied to marine outlet glaciers and implications for
the glacier dynamics, J. Glaciol., 56, 781–794,
https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310794457344, 2010.
Nishiizumi, K., Kohl, C. P., Arnold, J. R., Klein, J., Fink, D., and
Middleton, R.: Cosmic ray produced 10Be and 26Al in Antarctic rocks:
exposure and erosion history, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 104, 440–454,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-821X(91)90221-3, 1991.
Pattyn, F., Perichon, L., Durand, G., Favier, L., Gagliardini, O.,
Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Zwinger, T., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Docquier, D.,
Fürst, J. J., Goldberg, D., Gudmundsson, G. H., Humbert, A., Hütten,
M., Huybrechts, P., Jouvet, G., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Martin, D.,
Morlighem, M., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Rückamp, M., Rybak, O.,
Seroussi, H., Thoma, M., and Wilkens, N.: Grounding-line migration in
plan-view marine ice-sheet models: Results of the ice2sea MISMIP3d
intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 59, 410–422,
https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J129, 2013.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth
and collapse through the past five million years, Nature, 458, 329–332,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07809, 2009.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1273–1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1273-2012, 2012.
Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., and Alley, R. B.: Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet
retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth Planet Sci.
Lett., 412, 112–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035, 2015.
Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., van
den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal
melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10968, 2012.
Reese, A. R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Levermann, A., and Winkelmann, R.: The far
reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica, Nat. Clim. Chang., 8, 53–57,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x, 2018.
Rovere, A., Raymo, M. E., Mitrovica, J. X., Hearty, P. J., O'Leary, M. J.,
and Inglis, J. D.: The Mid-Pliocene sea-level conundrum: Glacial isostasy,
eustasy and dynamic topography, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 387, 27–33,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2013.10.030, 2014.
Scambos, T., Hulbe, C., and Fahnestock, M.: Climate-induced ice shelf
disintegration in the Antarctic Peninsula, Antarctic Peninsula Climate
Variability: Historical and Paleoenvironmental Perspectives, Antarct.
Res. Ser., 79, 79–92, 2003.
Schafer, J. M., Ivy-Ochs, S., Wieler, R., Leya, I., Baur, H., Denton, G. H.,
and Schluchter, C.: Cosmogenic noble gas studies in the oldest landscape on
earth: surface exposure ages of the Dry Valleys, Antarctica, Earth Planet
Sci. Lett., 167, 215–226, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(99)00029-1,
1999.
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R.,
Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., and Sugihara, G.:
Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature, 461, 53–59,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227, 2009.
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal
warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227–1231,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117, 2014.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and
hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 112, 1–19,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Smith, B., Fricker, H. A., Gardner, A. S., Medley, B., Nilsson, J., Paolo,
F. S., Holschuh, N., Adusumilli, S., Brunt, K., Csatho, B., Harbeck, K.,
Markus, T., Neumann, T., Siegfried, M. R., and Zwally, H. J.: Pervasive ice
sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes, Science, 1242, 1239–1242, 2020.
Spector, P., Stone, J., and Goehring, B.: Thickness of the divide and flank of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet through the last deglaciation, The Cryosphere, 13, 3061–3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3061-2019, 2019.
Spector, P., Stone, J., Balco, G., Hillebrand, T., Thompson, M., and Black,
T.: Miocene to Pleistocene glacial history of West Antarctica inferred from
Nunatak geomorphology and cosmogenic-nuclide measurements on bedrock
surfaces, Am. J. Sci., 320, 637–676, https://doi.org/10.2475/10.2020.01, 2020.
Stone, J., Spector, P. E., Hillebrand, T., Gombiner, J. H., Feathers, J. K.,
Talghader, J., Severinghaus, J. P., Pollard, D., Balco, G., and Fifield, L.
K.: West Antarctic Ice Sheet history from a subglacial bedrock core, in: AGU
Fall Meeting Abstracts, C21E-1507, AGU Fall Meeting 2019, San Francisco, 9–13 December 2019, 2019.
Sugden, D. E., Marchant, D. R., and Denton, G. H.: The case for a stable
East Antarctic ice sheet, Geografiska Annaler Series A, 75A, 151–351,
1993.
Sugden, D. E., Fogwill, C. J., Hein, A. S., Stuart, F. M., Kerr, A. R., and
Kubik, P. W.: Emergence of the Shackleton Range from beneath the Antarctic
Ice Sheet due to glacial erosion, Geomorphology, 208, 190–199,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2013.12.004, 2014.
Sutter, J., Gierz, P., Grosfeld, K., Thoma, M., and Lohmann, G.: Ocean
temperature thresholds for Last Interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet
collapse, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2675–2682,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067818, 2016.
Todd, C., Stone, J., Conway, H., Hall, B., and Bromley, G.: Late Quaternary
evolution of Reedy Glacier, Antarctica, Quat. Sci. Rev., 29, 1328–1341,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.001, 2010.
Trusel, L. D., Frey, K. E., Das, S. B., Karnauskas, K. B., Kuipers Munneke,
P., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Divergent trajectories of
Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios, Nat.
Geosci., 8, 927–932, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563, 2015.
van der Wateren, F. M., Dunai, T. J., van Balen, R. T., Klas, W., Verbers,
A. L. L. M., Passchier, S., and Herpers, U.: Contrasting Neogene denudation
histories of different structural regions in the Transantarctic Mountains
rift flank constrained by cosmogenic isotope measurements, Glob. Planet.
Change, 23, 145–172, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(99)00055-7, 1999.
Weertman, J.: Stability of ice-age ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res., 66,
3783–3792, https://doi.org/10.1029/jz066i011p03783, 1961.
Welten, K. C., Folco, L., Nishiizumi, K., Caffee, M. W., Grimberg, A.,
Meier, M. M. M., and Kober, F.: Meteoritic and bedrock constraints on the
glacial history of Frontier Mountain in northern Victoria Land, Antarctica,
Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 270, 308–315,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSL.2008.03.052, 2008.
Winnick, M. J. and Caves, J. K.: Oxygen isotope mass-balance constraints on
Pliocene sea level and East Antarctic Ice Sheet stability, Geology, 43,
879–882, https://doi.org/10.1130/G36999.1, 2015.
Short summary
This paper explores the use of multimillion-year exposure ages from Antarctic bedrock outcrops to benchmark ice sheet model predictions and thereby infer ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. We describe a new approach for model–data comparison, highlight an example where observational data are used to distinguish end-member models, and provide guidance for targeted sampling around Antarctica that can improve understanding of ice sheet response to climate warming in the past and future.
This paper explores the use of multimillion-year exposure ages from Antarctic bedrock outcrops...
