Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
The Cryosphere, 15, 1031–1052, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6...
The Cryosphere, 15, 1031–1052, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 26 Feb 2021
Research article | 26 Feb 2021
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
Related authors
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-39, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice sheet – climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events and rapid warming at high latitudes are here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Greenland. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. Mass loss is primarily driven by atmospheric warming, while oceanic forcing contributes to a relatively smaller uncertainty in our simulations.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Lise Missiaen, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier M. Roche, Jean-Claude Dutay, Aurélien Quiquet, Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 16, 867–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, 2020
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Aurélien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2481–2499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide reliable projections of the ice-sheet contribution to future sea-level rise, ice sheet models must be able to simulate the observed ice sheet present-day state. Using a low computational iterative minimisation procedure, based on the adjustment of the basal drag coefficient, we rapidly minimise the errors between the simulated and the observed Greenland ice thickness and ice velocity, and we succeed in stabilising the simulated Greenland ice sheet state under present-day conditions.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Catherine Ritz, Vincent Peyaud, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5003–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the GRISLI (Grenoble ice sheet and land ice) model in its newest revision. We present the recent model improvements from its original version (Ritz et al., 2001), together with a discussion of the model performance in reproducing the present-day Antarctic ice sheet geometry and the grounding line advances and retreats during the last 400 000 years. We show that GRISLI is a computationally cheap model, able to reproduce the large-scale behaviour of ice sheets.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, and Didier Paillard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-453-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-453-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models of intermediate complexity generally have a simplified model physics and a coarse model resolution. In this work we present the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation in such a model. This downscaling explicitly takes into account sub-grid topography. With this new model functionality we are able to simulate temperature and precipitation on a 40 km grid for the whole Northern Hemisphere from the native model resolution.
S. J. O'Shea, G. Allen, M. W. Gallagher, K. Bower, S. M. Illingworth, J. B. A. Muller, B. T. Jones, C. J. Percival, S. J-B. Bauguitte, M. Cain, N. Warwick, A. Quiquet, U. Skiba, J. Drewer, K. Dinsmore, E. G. Nisbet, D. Lowry, R. E. Fisher, J. L. France, M. Aurela, A. Lohila, G. Hayman, C. George, D. B. Clark, A. J. Manning, A. D. Friend, and J. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13159–13174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents airborne measurements of greenhouse gases collected in the European Arctic. Regional scale flux estimates for the northern Scandinavian wetlands are derived. These fluxes are found to be in excellent agreement with coincident surface measurements within the aircraft's sampling domain. This has allowed a significant low bias to be identified in two commonly used process-based land surface models.
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
A. Quiquet, C. Ritz, H. J. Punge, and D. Salas y Mélia
Clim. Past, 9, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-353-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-353-2013, 2013
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, Nathaëlle Bouttes, and Fanny Lhardy
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-39, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we discuss results obtained with a set of coupled ice sheet – climate model experiments for the last 26 kyrs. The model displays a large sensitivity of the oceanic circulation to the amount of the freshwater flux resulting from ice sheet melting. Ice sheet geometry changes alone are not enough to lead to abrupt climate events and rapid warming at high latitudes are here only reported during abrupt oceanic circulation recoveries that occurred when accounting for freshwater flux.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Greenland. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. Mass loss is primarily driven by atmospheric warming, while oceanic forcing contributes to a relatively smaller uncertainty in our simulations.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Lise Missiaen, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier M. Roche, Jean-Claude Dutay, Aurélien Quiquet, Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, and Jean-Yves Peterschmitt
Clim. Past, 16, 867–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-867-2020, 2020
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Yong Sun, Christophe Dumas, Pierre Sepulchre, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 16, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the warm climate during the late Pliocene (~3.205 Ma), modeling experiments with the new boundary conditions are launched and analyzed based on the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). Our results show that the warming in mid- to high latitudes enhanced due to the modifications of the land–sea mask and land–ice configuration. The pCO2 uncertainties within the records can produce asymmetrical warming patterns.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Aurélien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2481–2499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To provide reliable projections of the ice-sheet contribution to future sea-level rise, ice sheet models must be able to simulate the observed ice sheet present-day state. Using a low computational iterative minimisation procedure, based on the adjustment of the basal drag coefficient, we rapidly minimise the errors between the simulated and the observed Greenland ice thickness and ice velocity, and we succeed in stabilising the simulated Greenland ice sheet state under present-day conditions.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Catherine Ritz, Vincent Peyaud, and Didier M. Roche
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5003–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5003-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the GRISLI (Grenoble ice sheet and land ice) model in its newest revision. We present the recent model improvements from its original version (Ritz et al., 2001), together with a discussion of the model performance in reproducing the present-day Antarctic ice sheet geometry and the grounding line advances and retreats during the last 400 000 years. We show that GRISLI is a computationally cheap model, able to reproduce the large-scale behaviour of ice sheets.
Zhongshi Zhang, Qing Yan, Elizabeth J. Farmer, Camille Li, Gilles Ramstein, Terence Hughes, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, Ran Zhang, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Christophe Dumas, and Chuncheng Guo
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-79, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Our study challenges the widely accepted idea that the Laurentide-Eurasian ice sheets gradually extended across North America and Northwest Eurasia, and suggests the growth of the NH ice sheets is much more complicated. We find climate feedbacks regulate the distribution of the NH ice sheets, producing swings between two distinct ice sheet configurations: the Laurentide-Eurasian and a circum-Arctic configuration, where large ice sheets existed over Northeast Siberia and the Canadian Rockies.
Guillaume Latombe, Ariane Burke, Mathieu Vrac, Guillaume Levavasseur, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563–2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
It is still unclear how climate conditions, and especially climate variability, influenced the spatial distribution of past human populations. Global climate models (GCMs) cannot simulate climate at sufficiently fine scale for this purpose. We propose a statistical method to obtain fine-scale climate projections for 15 000 years ago from coarse-scale GCM outputs. Our method agrees with local reconstructions from fossil and pollen data, and generates sensible climate variability maps over Europe.
Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Christophe Dumas, and Didier Paillard
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 453–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-453-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-453-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models of intermediate complexity generally have a simplified model physics and a coarse model resolution. In this work we present the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation in such a model. This downscaling explicitly takes into account sub-grid topography. With this new model functionality we are able to simulate temperature and precipitation on a 40 km grid for the whole Northern Hemisphere from the native model resolution.
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 11, 1467–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1467-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1467-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The present study investigates the potential impact of the North American ice sheet on the surface mass balance of the Eurasian ice sheet through changes in the past glacial atmospheric circulation. Using an atmospheric circulation model and an ice-sheet model, we show that the albedo of the American ice sheet favors the growth of the Eurasian ice sheet, whereas the topography of the American ice sheet leads to more ablation over North Eurasia, and therefore to a smaller Eurasian ice sheet.
S. J. O'Shea, G. Allen, M. W. Gallagher, K. Bower, S. M. Illingworth, J. B. A. Muller, B. T. Jones, C. J. Percival, S. J-B. Bauguitte, M. Cain, N. Warwick, A. Quiquet, U. Skiba, J. Drewer, K. Dinsmore, E. G. Nisbet, D. Lowry, R. E. Fisher, J. L. France, M. Aurela, A. Lohila, G. Hayman, C. George, D. B. Clark, A. J. Manning, A. D. Friend, and J. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13159–13174, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13159-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents airborne measurements of greenhouse gases collected in the European Arctic. Regional scale flux estimates for the northern Scandinavian wetlands are derived. These fluxes are found to be in excellent agreement with coincident surface measurements within the aircraft's sampling domain. This has allowed a significant low bias to be identified in two commonly used process-based land surface models.
J.-B. Ladant, Y. Donnadieu, and C. Dumas
Clim. Past, 10, 1957–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1957-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1957-2014, 2014
D. M. Roche, C. Dumas, M. Bügelmayer, S. Charbit, and C. Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1377-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1377-2014, 2014
P. Beghin, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
Clim. Past, 10, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-345-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
S. Charbit, C. Dumas, M. Kageyama, D. M. Roche, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 7, 681–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-681-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-681-2013, 2013
A. Quiquet, C. Ritz, H. J. Punge, and D. Salas y Mélia
Clim. Past, 9, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-353-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-353-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Downscaled surface mass balance in Antarctica: impacts of subsurface processes and large-scale atmospheric circulation
Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration
What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates
Energetics of surface melt in West Antarctica
Brief communication: Thwaites Glacier cavity evolution
Assessment of ICESat-2 ice surface elevations over the Chinese Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE) route, East Antarctica, based on coordinated multi-sensor observations
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties
Environmental drivers of circum-Antarctic glacier and ice shelf front retreat over the last two decades
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner-Ronne basin, Antarctica
Aerogeophysical characterization of Titan Dome, East Antarctica, and potential as an ice core target
Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet
Physics-based SNOWPACK model improves representation of near-surface Antarctic snow and firn density
Recent acceleration of Denman Glacier (1972–2017), East Antarctica, driven by grounding line retreat and changes in ice tongue configuration
ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c
Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions
Drivers of Pine Island Glacier speed-up between 1996 and 2016
Scoring Antarctic surface mass balance in climate models to refine future projections
Wind-induced seismic noise at the Princess Elisabeth Antarctica Station
Did Holocene climate changes drive West Antarctic grounding line retreat and re-advance?
Distribution and seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes on Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica
Mapping the grounding zone of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, from ICESat-2 laser altimetry
Impact of coastal East Antarctic ice rises on surface mass balance: insights from observations and modeling
Temporal and spatial variability in surface roughness and accumulation rate around 88° S from repeat airborne geophysical surveys
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
New gravity-derived bathymetry for the Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves revealing two ice shelf populations
Revealing the former bed of Thwaites Glacier using sea-floor bathymetry: implications for warm-water routing and bed controls on ice flow and buttressing
A 14.5-million-year record of East Antarctic Ice Sheet fluctuations from the central Transantarctic Mountains, constrained with cosmogenic 3He, 10Be, 21Ne, and 26Al
Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models
Large-scale englacial folding and deep-ice stratigraphy within the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Synoptic conditions and atmospheric moisture pathways associated with virga and precipitation over coastal Adélie Land in Antarctica
Refractory black carbon (rBC) variability in a 47-year West Antarctic snow and firn core
Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data
How useful is snow accumulation in reconstructing surface air temperature in Antarctica? A study combining ice core records and climate models
Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 1: Boundary conditions and climatic forcing
Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 2: Parameter ensemble analysis
Interannual variability of summer surface mass balance and surface melting in the Amundsen sector, West Antarctica
Thickness of the divide and flank of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet through the last deglaciation
New Last Glacial Maximum ice thickness constraints for the Weddell Sea Embayment, Antarctica
Calving cycle of the Brunt Ice Shelf, Antarctica, driven by changes in ice shelf geometry
Brief communication: A submarine wall protecting the Amundsen Sea intensifies melting of neighboring ice shelves
Modelling the Antarctic Ice Sheet across the mid-Pleistocene transition – implications for Oldest Ice
Past water flow beneath Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
Marked decrease in the near-surface snow density retrieved by AMSR-E satellite at Dome C, Antarctica, between 2002 and 2011
Four decades of Antarctic surface elevation changes from multi-mission satellite altimetry
Moisture transport in observations and reanalyses as a proxy for snow accumulation in East Antarctica
Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes
Nicolaj Hansen, Peter L. Langen, Fredrik Boberg, Rene Forsberg, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Peter Thejll, Baptiste Vandecrux, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 15, 4315–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have used computer models to estimate the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) from 1980 to 2017. Our estimates lies between 2473.5 ± 114.4 Gt per year and 2564.8 ± 113.7 Gt per year. To evaluate our models, we compared the modelled snow temperatures and densities to in situ measurements. We also investigated the spatial distribution of the SMB. It is very important to have estimates of the Antarctic SMB because then it is easier to understand global sea level changes.
Johannes Sutter, Hubertus Fischer, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 15, 3839–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Projections of global sea-level changes in a warming world require ice-sheet models. We expand the calibration of these models by making use of the internal architecture of the Antarctic ice sheet, which is formed by its evolution over many millennia. We propose that using our novel approach to constrain ice sheet models, we will be able to both sharpen our understanding of past and future sea-level changes and identify weaknesses in the parameterisation of current continental-scale models.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Madison L. Ghiz, Ryan C. Scott, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Matthew Lazzara, and Dan Lubin
The Cryosphere, 15, 3459–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how melt occurs over the vulnerable ice shelves of West Antarctica and determine that the three primary mechanisms can be evaluated using archived numerical weather prediction model data and satellite imagery. We find examples of each mechanism: thermal blanketing by a warm atmosphere, radiative heating by thin clouds, and downslope winds. Our results signify the potential to make a multi-decadal assessment of atmospheric stress on West Antarctic ice shelves in a warming climate.
Suzanne L. Bevan, Adrian J. Luckman, Douglas I. Benn, Susheel Adusumilli, and Anna Crawford
The Cryosphere, 15, 3317–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet depends on the behaviour of the fast-flowing glaciers, such as Thwaites, that connect it to the ocean. Here we show that a large ocean-melted cavity beneath Thwaites Glacier has remained stable since it first formed, implying that, in line with current theory, basal melt is now concentrated close to where the ice first goes afloat. We also show that Thwaites Glacier continues to thin and to speed up and that continued retreat is therefore likely.
Rongxing Li, Hongwei Li, Tong Hao, Gang Qiao, Haotian Cui, Youquan He, Gang Hai, Huan Xie, Yuan Cheng, and Bofeng Li
The Cryosphere, 15, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3083-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3083-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of an assessment of ICESat-2 surface elevations along the 520 km CHINARE route in East Antarctica. The assessment was performed based on coordinated multi-sensor observations from a global navigation satellite system, corner cube retroreflectors, retroreflective target sheets, and UAVs. The validation results demonstrate that ICESat-2 elevations are accurate to 1.5–2.5 cm and can potentially overcome the uncertainties in the estimation of mass balance in East Antarctica.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Nathan M. Urban
The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures and have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in rise amount and timing remain largely unquantified. To facilitate uncertainty quantification, we use a high-resolution ice sheet model to build, test, and validate an ice sheet emulator and generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years in the future.
Celia A. Baumhoer, Andreas J. Dietz, Christof Kneisel, Heiko Paeth, and Claudia Kuenzer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2357–2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2357-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a record of circum-Antarctic glacier and ice shelf front change over the last two decades in combination with potential environmental variables forcing frontal retreat. Along the Antarctic coastline, glacier and ice shelf front retreat dominated between 1997–2008 and advance between 2009–2018. Decreasing sea ice days, intense snowmelt, weakening easterly winds, and relative changes in sea surface temperature were identified as enabling factors for glacier and ice shelf front retreat.
Emily A. Hill, Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Matthew Collins
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-120, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Short summary
Short summary
Using an ice-flow model and uncertainty quantification methods, we provide probabilistic projections of future sea level rise from the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica. We find that it is most likely that this region will contribute negatively to sea level rise over the next 300 years, largely as a result of increased surface mass balance. We identify parameters controlling ice-shelf melt and snowfall contribute most to uncertainties in projections.
Lucas H. Beem, Duncan A. Young, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Donald D. Blankenship, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Jingxue Guo, and Sun Bo
The Cryosphere, 15, 1719–1730, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Radar observation collected above Titan Dome of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is used to describe ice geometry and test a hypothesis that ice beneath the dome is older than 1 million years. An important climate transition occurred between 1.25 million and 700 thousand years ago, and if ice old enough to study this period can be removed as an ice core, new insights into climate dynamics are expected. The new observations suggest the ice is too young – more likely 300 to 800 thousand years old.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Stefan Hofer, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Charlotte Lang, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the ice sheet to the sea level rise. We investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings using physical and statistical downscaling of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Our results highlight a contrasting effect between the grounded ice sheet (where the SMB is projected to increase) and ice shelves (where the future SMB depends on the emission scenario).
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Marissa Dattler, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brooke Medley, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 15, 1065–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow density is required to convert observed changes in ice sheet volume into mass, which ultimately drives ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. However, snow properties respond dynamically to wind-driven redistribution. Here we include a new wind-driven snow density scheme into an existing snow model. Our results demonstrate an improved representation of snow density when compared to observations and can therefore be used to improve retrievals of ice sheet mass balance.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Jim R. Jordan, Chris R. Stokes, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Adrian Jenkins
The Cryosphere, 15, 663–676, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a historical overview of changes in Denman Glacier's flow speed, structure and calving events since the 1960s. Based on these observations, we perform a series of numerical modelling experiments to determine the likely cause of Denman's acceleration since the 1970s. We show that grounding line retreat, ice shelf thinning and the detachment of Denman's ice tongue from a pinning point are the most likely causes of the observed acceleration.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, and Mondher Chekki
The Cryosphere, 15, 571–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
Martim Mas e Braga, Jorge Bernales, Matthias Prange, Arjen P. Stroeven, and Irina Rogozhina
The Cryosphere, 15, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-459-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We combine a computer model with different climate records to simulate how Antarctica responded to warming during marine isotope substage 11c, which can help understand Antarctica's natural drivers of change. We found that the regional climate warming of Antarctica seen in ice cores was necessary for the model to match the recorded sea level rise. A collapse of its western ice sheet is possible if a modest warming is sustained for ca. 4000 years, contributing 6.7 to 8.2 m to sea level rise.
Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
The Cryosphere, 15, 215–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-215-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Glacial Maximum the Antarctic Ice Sheet was larger and more extended than at present. However, neither its exact position nor the total ice volume are well constrained. Here we investigate how the different climatic boundary conditions, as well as basal friction configurations, affect the size and extent of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and discuss its potential implications.
Jan De Rydt, Ronja Reese, Fernando S. Paolo, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 15, 113–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used satellite observations and numerical simulations of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, between 1996 and 2016 to show that the recent increase in its flow speed can only be reproduced by computer models if stringent assumptions are made about the material properties of the ice and its underlying bed. These assumptions are not commonly adopted in ice flow modelling, and our results therefore have implications for future simulations of Antarctic ice flow and sea level projections.
Tessa Gorte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 14, 4719–4733, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we analyze several spatial and temporal criteria to assess the ability of models in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks to recreate past Antarctic surface mass balance. We then compared a subset of the top performing models to all remaining models to refine future surface mass balance predictions under different forcing scenarios. We found that the top performing models predict lower surface mass balance by 2100, indicating less buffering than otherwise expected of sea level rise.
Baptiste Frankinet, Thomas Lecocq, and Thierry Camelbeeck
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-267, 2020
Preprint under review for TC
Short summary
Short summary
Icequakes are the result of processes occurring within the ice mass, or between the ice and its environment. Having a complete catalog of those icequakes provides a unique view on the ice dynamics. But, the instruments recording these events are polluted by different noise sources such as the wind. Using the data from multiple instruments, we found how the wind-noise affects the icequake monitoring at the Princess Elisabeth Station in Antarctica.
Sarah U. Neuhaus, Slawek M. Tulaczyk, Nathan D. Stansell, Jason J. Coenen, Reed P. Scherer, Jill A. Mikucki, and Ross D. Powell
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-308, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for TC
Jennifer F. Arthur, Chris R. Stokes, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, J. Rachel Carr, and Amber A. Leeson
The Cryosphere, 14, 4103–4120, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4103-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Surface meltwater lakes can flex and fracture ice shelves, potentially leading to ice shelf break-up. A long-term record of lake evolution on Shackleton Ice Shelf is produced using optical satellite imagery and compared to surface air temperature and modelled surface melt. The results reveal that lake clustering on the ice shelf is linked to melt-enhancing feedbacks. Peaks in total lake area and volume closely correspond with intense snowmelt events rather than with warmer seasonal temperatures.
Tian Li, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen J. Chuter, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 14, 3629–3643, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3629-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3629-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate knowledge of the Antarctic grounding zone is critical for the understanding of ice sheet instability and the evaluation of mass balance. We present a new, fully automated method to map the grounding zone from ICESat-2 laser altimetry. Our results of Larsen C Ice Shelf demonstrate the efficiency, density, and high spatial accuracy with which ICESat-2 can image complex grounding zones.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Michael Studinger, Brooke C. Medley, Kelly M. Brunt, Kimberly A. Casey, Nathan T. Kurtz, Serdar S. Manizade, Thomas A. Neumann, and Thomas B. Overly
The Cryosphere, 14, 3287–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3287-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use repeat airborne geophysical data consisting of laser altimetry, snow, and Ku-band radar and optical imagery to analyze the spatial and temporal variability in surface roughness, slope, wind deposition, and snow accumulation at 88° S. We find small–scale variability in snow accumulation based on the snow radar subsurface layering, indicating areas of strong wind redistribution are prevalent at 88° S. There is no slope–independent relationship between surface roughness and accumulation.
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Tom A. Jordan, David Porter, Kirsty Tinto, Romain Millan, Atsuhiro Muto, Kelly Hogan, Robert D. Larter, Alastair G. C. Graham, and John D. Paden
The Cryosphere, 14, 2869–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2869-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Linking ocean and ice sheet processes allows prediction of sea level change. Ice shelves form a floating buffer between the ice–ocean systems, but the water depth beneath is often a mystery, leaving a critical blind spot in our understanding of how these systems interact. Here, we use airborne measurements of gravity to reveal the bathymetry under the ice shelves flanking the rapidly changing Thwaites Glacier and adjacent glacier systems, providing new insights and data for future models.
Kelly A. Hogan, Robert D. Larter, Alastair G. C. Graham, Robert Arthern, James D. Kirkham, Rebecca Totten Minzoni, Tom A. Jordan, Rachel Clark, Victoria Fitzgerald, Anna K. Wåhlin, John B. Anderson, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Frank O. Nitsche, Lauren Simkins, James A. Smith, Karsten Gohl, Jan Erik Arndt, Jongkuk Hong, and Julia Wellner
The Cryosphere, 14, 2883–2908, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2883-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2883-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The sea-floor geometry around the rapidly changing Thwaites Glacier is a key control on warm ocean waters reaching the ice shelf and grounding zone beyond. This area was previously unsurveyed due to icebergs and sea-ice cover. The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration mapped this area for the first time in 2019. The data reveal troughs over 1200 m deep and, as this region is thought to have only ungrounded recently, provide key insights into the morphology beneath the grounded ice sheet.
Allie Balter-Kennedy, Gordon Bromley, Greg Balco, Holly Thomas, and Margaret S. Jackson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2647–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2647-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2647-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We describe new geologic evidence from Antarctica that demonstrates changes in East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) extent over the past ~ 15 million years. Our data show that the EAIS was a persistent feature in the Transantarctic Mountains for much of that time, including some (but not all) times when global temperature may have been warmer than today. Overall, our results comprise a long-term record of EAIS change and may provide useful constraints for ice sheet models and sea-level estimates.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Neil Ross, Hugh Corr, and Martin Siegert
The Cryosphere, 14, 2103–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2103-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using airborne ice-penetrating radar we investigated the physical properties and structure of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice deep beneath the Institute Ice Stream has prominent layers with physical properties distinct from those around them and which are heavily folded like geological layers. In turn, these folds influence the present-day flow of the ice sheet, with implications for how computer models are used to simulate ice sheet flow and behaviour in a warming world.
Nicolas Jullien, Étienne Vignon, Michael Sprenger, Franziska Aemisegger, and Alexis Berne
The Cryosphere, 14, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1685-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1685-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Although snowfall is the main input of water to the Antarctic ice sheet, snowflakes are often evaporated by dry and fierce winds near the surface of the continent. The amount of snow that actually reaches the ground is therefore considerably reduced. By analyzing the position of cyclones and fronts as well as by back-tracing the atmospheric moisture pathway towards Antarctica, this study explains in which meteorological conditions snowfall is either completely evaporated or reaches the ground.
Luciano Marquetto, Susan Kaspari, and Jefferson Cardia Simões
The Cryosphere, 14, 1537–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1537-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon, commonly known as soot, is a particle originating from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass burning that plays an important role in the climatic system. In this work, we analyzed black carbon from an Antarctic ice core spanning 1968–2015 and observed very low concentrations of this particle in the snow, lower than previous works in West Antarctica. We suggest that black carbon transport to East Antarctica is different from its transport to West Antarctica.
Andreas Wernecke, Tamsin L. Edwards, Isabel J. Nias, Philip B. Holden, and Neil R. Edwards
The Cryosphere, 14, 1459–1474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how the two-dimensional characteristics of ice thickness change from satellite measurements can be used to judge and refine a high-resolution ice sheet model of Antarctica. The uncertainty in 50-year model simulations for the currently most drastically changing part of Antarctica can be reduced by nearly 40 % compared to a simpler, non-spatial approach and nearly 90 % compared to the original spread in simulations.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the last glacial cycles the Antarctic Ice Sheet experienced alternating climatic conditions and varying sea-level history. In response, changes in ice sheet volume and ice-covered area occurred, implying feedbacks on the global sea level. We ran model simulations of the ice sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) over the last two glacial cycles to evaluate the model's sensitivity to different choices of boundary conditions and parameters to gain confidence for future projections.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) was analyzed in which four relevant model parameters were systematically varied. These parameters were selected in a companion study and are associated with uncertainties in ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and solid Earth deformation. For each ensemble member a statistical score is computed, which enables calibrating the model against both modern and geologic data.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Hubert Gallée, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan D. Wille, Vincent Favier, Amine Drira, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling the interannual variability of the surface conditions over Antarctic glaciers is important for the identification of climate trends and climate predictions and to assess models. We simulate snow accumulation and surface melting in the Amundsen sector (West Antarctica) over 1979–2017. For all the glaciers, the interannual variability of summer snow accumulation and surface melting is driven by two distinct mechanisms related to variations in the Amundsen Sea Low strength and position.
Perry Spector, John Stone, and Brent Goehring
The Cryosphere, 13, 3061–3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3061-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3061-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We describe constraints on the thickness of the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) through the last deglaciation. Our data imply that the ice-sheet divide between the Ross and Weddell sea sectors of the WAIS was thicker than present for a period less than ~ 8 kyr within the past ~ 15 kyr. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the divide initially thickened due to the deglacial rise in snowfall and subsequently thinned in response to retreat of the ice-sheet margin.
Keir A. Nichols, Brent M. Goehring, Greg Balco, Joanne S. Johnson, Andrew S. Hein, and Claire Todd
The Cryosphere, 13, 2935–2951, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2935-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2935-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the history of ice masses at three locations in the Weddell Sea Embayment, Antarctica. We measured rare isotopes in material sourced from mountains overlooking the Slessor Glacier, Foundation Ice Stream, and smaller glaciers on the Lassiter Coast. We show that ice masses were between 385 and 800 m thicker during the last glacial cycle than they are at present. The ice masses were both hundreds of metres thicker and remained thicker closer to the present than was previously thought.
Jan De Rydt, Gudmundur Hilmar Gudmundsson, Thomas Nagler, and Jan Wuite
The Cryosphere, 13, 2771–2787, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2771-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2771-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Two large icebergs are about to break off from the Brunt Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Rifting started several years ago and is now approaching its final phase. Satellite data and computer simulations show that over the past 2 decades, growth of the ice shelf has caused a build-up of forces within the ice, which culminated in its fracture. These natural changes in geometry coincided with large variations in flow speed, a process that is thought to be relevant for all Antarctic ice shelf margins.
Özgür Gürses, Vanessa Kolatschek, Qiang Wang, and Christian Bernd Rodehacke
The Cryosphere, 13, 2317–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2317-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The warming of the Earth's climate system causes sea level rise. In Antarctica, ice streams flow into the sea and develop ice shelves. These are floating extensions of the ice streams. Ocean water melts these ice shelves. It has been proposed that a submarine wall could shield these ice shelves from the warm water. Our model simulation shows that the wall protects ice shelves. However, the warm water flows to neighboring ice shelves. There, enhanced melting reduces the effectiveness of the wall.
Johannes Sutter, Hubertus Fischer, Klaus Grosfeld, Nanna B. Karlsson, Thomas Kleiner, Brice Van Liefferinge, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2023–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet may have played an important role in moderating the transition between warm and cold climate epochs over the last million years. We find that the Antarctic Ice Sheet grew considerably about 0.9 Myr ago, a time when ice-age–warm-age cycles changed from a
40 000 to a 100 000 year periodicity. Our findings also suggest that ice as old as 1.5 Myr still exists at the bottom of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet despite the major climate reorganisations in the past.
James D. Kirkham, Kelly A. Hogan, Robert D. Larter, Neil S. Arnold, Frank O. Nitsche, Nicholas R. Golledge, and Julian A. Dowdeswell
The Cryosphere, 13, 1959–1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1959-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1959-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A series of huge (500 m wide, 50 m deep) channels were eroded by water flowing beneath Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in the past. The channels are similar to canyon systems produced by floods of meltwater released beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet millions of years ago. The spatial extent of the channels formed beneath Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers demonstrates significant quantities of water, possibly discharged from trapped subglacial lakes, flowed beneath these glaciers in the past.
Kevin Bulthuis, Maarten Arnst, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.
Nicolas Champollion, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Éric Lefebvre, Giovanni Macelloni, Frédérique Rémy, and Michel Fily
The Cryosphere, 13, 1215–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1215-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The snow density close to the surface has been retrieved from satellite observations at Dome C on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. It shows a marked decrease between 2002 and 2011 of about 10 kg m-3 yr-1. This trend has been confirmed by in situ measurements and other satellite observations though no long-term meteorological evolution has been found. These results have implications for surface mass balance and energy budget.
Ludwig Schröder, Martin Horwath, Reinhard Dietrich, Veit Helm, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 427–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an approach to combine measurements of seven satellite altimetry missions over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our resulting monthly grids of elevation changes between 1978 and 2017 provide unprecedented details of the long-term and interannual variation. Derived mass changes agree well with contemporaneous data of surface mass balance and satellite gravimetry and show which regions were responsible for the significant accelerations of mass loss in recent years.
Ambroise Dufour, Claudine Charrondière, and Olga Zolina
The Cryosphere, 13, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-413-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-413-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is thicker and larger than its western counterpart. Whether it gains or loses mass depends in part on the snowfall but this is difficult to measure and model inside the continent. Fortunately, the weather balloons launched from a network of stations along the coast provide an indirect estimate. Indeed, they track the water vapour that will eventually precipitate inland. It turns out there has been no consistent change in moisture transport from 1980 to 2017.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Cited articles
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a, b
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020. a
Brondex, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Gagliardini, O.: Sensitivity of centennial mass loss projections of the Amundsen basin to the friction law, The Cryosphere, 13, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-177-2019, 2019. a, b
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: Shallow shelf approximation as a “sliding law” in
a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys.
Res.-Earth Surf., 114, F03008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001179, 2009. a
Bulthuis, K., Arnst, M., Sun, S., and Pattyn, F.: Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change, The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, 2019. a
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future
sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016. a
Depoorter, M. A., Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Ligtenberg,
S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Moholdt, G.: Calving fluxes and basal
melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves, Nature, 502, 89–92,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12567, 2013. a
Edwards, T. L., Brandon, M. A., Durand, G., Edwards, N. R., Golledge, N. R.,
Holden, P. B., Nias, I. J., Payne, A. J., Ritz, C., and Wernecke, A.:
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability, Nature,
566, 58–64, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4, 2019. a
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O.,
Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and Brocq, A. M. L.: Retreat
of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability,
Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 117, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014. a
Favier, L., Jourdain, N. C., Jenkins, A., Merino, N., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., and Mathiot, P.: Assessment of sub-shelf melting parameterisations using the ocean–ice-sheet coupled model NEMO(v3.6)–Elmer/Ice(v8.3) , Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019. a
Forster, P. M., Maycock, A. C., McKenna, C. M., and Smith, C. J.: Latest
climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation, Nat. Clim. Change, 10,
7–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0660-0, 2020. a
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a, b, c
Gardner, A. S., Moholdt, G., Scambos, T., Fahnstock, M., Ligtenberg, S., van den Broeke, M., and Nilsson, J.: Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years, The Cryosphere, 12, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018. a
Gillet-Chaulet, F.: Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter, The Cryosphere, 14, 811–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-811-2020, 2020. a
Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Little, C., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Quiquet, A., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Slater, D. A., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Tarasov, L., van de Wal, R., and van den Broeke, M.: The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6, The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020. a
Golledge, N. R., Kowalewski, D. E., Naish, T. R., Levy, R. H., Fogwill, C. J.,
and Gasson, E. G. W.: The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future
sea-level rise, Nature, 526, 421, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15706, 2015. a
Jenkins, A., Shoosmith, D., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S., Kim, T. W., Lee, S. H.,
Ha, H. K., and Stammerjohn, S.: West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the
Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability, Nat. Geosci.,
11, 733–738, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0207-4, 2018. a
Jourdain, N. C., Asay-Davis, X., Hattermann, T., Straneo, F., Seroussi, H., Little, C. M., and Nowicki, S.: A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections, The Cryosphere, 14, 3111–3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Le clec'h, S., Charbit, S., Quiquet, A., Fettweis, X., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., Wyard, C., and Ritz, C.: Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019a. a
Le clec'h, S., Quiquet, A., Charbit, S., Dumas, C., Kageyama, M., and Ritz, C.: A rapidly converging initialisation method to simulate the present-day Greenland ice sheet using the GRISLI ice sheet model (version 1.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2481–2499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019, 2019b. a
Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Albrecht, T., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Huybrechts, P., Jordan, J., Leguy, G., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., Rodehacke, C., Seroussi, H., Sutter, J., Zhang, T., Van Breedam, J., Calov, R., DeConto, R., Dumas, C., Garbe, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kleiner, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Meinshausen, M., Ng, E., Nowicki, S. M. J., Perego, M., Price, S. F., Saito, F., Schlegel, N.-J., Sun, S., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2), Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Medley, B. and Thomas, E. R.: Increased snowfall over the Antarctic Ice
Sheet mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 9,
34–39, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0356-x, 2019. a
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G.,
Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum,
J. S., Gudmundsson, H., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert,
A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R.,
Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A.,
Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., Broeke, M. R. V. D.,
Ommen, T. D. V., Wessem, M. V., and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial troughs and
stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet,
Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020. a
Nerem, R. S., Beckley, B. D., Fasullo, J. T., Hamlington, B. D., Masters, D.,
and Mitchum, G. T.: Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise
detected in the altimeter era, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 115, 2022–2025, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115, 2018. a
Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016. a
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B. C., Hinkel, J., van De Wal, R. S. W., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., CifuentesJara, M., DeConto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2019. a, b
Palerme, C., Genthon, C., Claud, C., Kay, J. E., Wood, N. B., and L'Ecuyer,
T.: Evaluation of current and projected Antarctic precipitation in CMIP5
models, Clim. Dynam., 48, 225–239, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3071-1,
2017. a
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice
shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015. a
Pattyn, F., Favier, L., Sun, S., and Durand, G.: Progress in Numerical
Modeling of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Dynamics, Current Climate Change
Reports, 3, 174–184, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0069-7, 2017. a
Peano, D., Colleoni, F., Quiquet, A., and Masina, S.: Ice flux evolution in
fast flowing areas of the Greenland ice sheet over the 20th and 21st
centuries, J. Glaciol., 63, 499–513, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2017.12,
2017. a
Quiquet, A. and Dumas, C.: The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to
ISMIP6-Antarctica, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3819782, type: dataset,
2020. a
Quiquet, A. and Dumas, C.: The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 15, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, 2021. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice Flow of the Antarctic Ice
Sheet, Science, 333, 1427–1430, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1208336, 2011. a
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-Shelf Melting
Around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798,
2013. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., van den Broeke, M., van Wessem, M. J.,
and Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance
from 1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116,
1095–1103, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116, 2019. a, b, c, d
Ritz, C., Edwards, T. L., Durand, G., Payne, A. J., Peyaud, V., and Hindmarsh,
R. C. A.: Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability
constrained by observations, Nature, 528, 115–118,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16147, 2015. a
Scambos, T., Fricker, H. A., Liu, C.-C., Bohlander, J., Fastook, J., Sargent,
A., Massom, R., and Wu, A.-M.: Ice shelf disintegration by plate bending and
hydro-fracture: Satellite observations and model results of the 2008
Wilkins ice shelf break-ups, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 280,
51–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.12.027, 2009. a
Schlegel, N.-J., Seroussi, H., Schodlok, M. P., Larour, E. Y., Boening, C., Limonadi, D., Watkins, M. M., Morlighem, M., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Exploration of Antarctic Ice Sheet 100-year contribution to sea level rise and associated model uncertainties using the ISSM framework, The Cryosphere, 12, 3511–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, 2018. a
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Brondex, J., Cornford, S., Dumas, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Lowry, D., Mengel, M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reerink, T. J., Reese, R., Rodehacke, C. B., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Sun, S., Sutter, J., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., and Zhang, T.: initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6, The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019. a, b, c
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n
Shapiro, N. M. and Ritzwoller, M. H.: Inferring surface heat flux distributions
guided by a global seismic model: particular application to Antarctica,
Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 223, 213–224,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011, 2004. a
Sun, S., Pattyn, F., Simon, E. G., Albrecht, T., Cornford, S., Calov, R., Dumas, C., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Kazmierczak, E., Kleiner, T., Leguy, G., Lazeroms, W. M. J., Lipscomb, W., Martin, D., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pollard, D., Price11, S., Quique, A., Seroussi, H., Schlemm, T., Sutter, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., and Zhang, T.: Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice shelf collapse (ABUMIP), J. Glaciol., 66, 891–904, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f
The IMBIE team: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to
2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018. a, b
Trusel, L. D., Frey, K. E., Das, S. B., Karnauskas, K. B., Munneke, P. K.,
Meijgaard, E. V., and Broeke, M. R. V. D.: Divergent trajectories of
Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios,
Nat. Geosci., 8, 927–932, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2563, 2015.
a
Tsai, V. C., Stewart, A. L., and Thompson, A. F.: Marine ice-sheet profiles and
stability under Coulomb basal conditions, J. Glaciol., 61,
205–215, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J221, 2015. a, b
van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018. a
Weertman, J.: On the Sliding of Glaciers, J. Glaciol., 3, 33–38,
https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000024709, 1957. a
Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 1: Model description, The Cryosphere, 5, 715–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-715-2011, 2011. a
Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, A., and Caldeira, K.: Combustion of
available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice
Sheet, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500589, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500589, 2015. a
Special issue
Short summary
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Antarctica. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show that increased precipitation in the future in some cases mitigates this contribution, with positive to negative values in 2100 depending of the climate forcing used. Sub-shelf-basal-melt uncertainties induce large differences in simulated grounding-line retreats.
We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for...
