Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 18 Nov 2020
| 18 Nov 2020
Reconciling the surface temperature–surface mass balance relationship in models and ice cores in Antarctica over the last 2 centuries
Marie G. P. Cavitte
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Quentin Dalaiden
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Hugues Goosse
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder CO, USA
Elizabeth R. Thomas
British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK
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The ice sheets covering Antarctica have built up over millenia through successive snowfall events which become buried and preserved as internal surfaces of equal age detectable with ice-penetrating radar. This paper describes an international initiative to work together on this archival data to build a comprehensive 3-D picture of how old the ice is everywhere across Antarctica, and how this will be used to reconstruct past and predict future ice and climate behaviour.
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Determining the net balance of snow accumulation on the surface of Antarctica is challenging. Sentinel-1 satellite sensors, which can see through snow, offer a promising method. However, linking their signals to snow amounts is complex due to snow's internal structure and limited on-the-ground data. This study found a connection between satellite signals and snow levels at three locations in Dronning Maud Land. Using models and field data, the method shows potential for wider use in Antarctica.
Ailsa Chung, Frédéric Parrenin, Robert Mulvaney, Luca Vittuari, Massimo Frezzotti, Antonio Zanutta, David A. Lilien, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Olaf Eisen
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We applied an ice flow model to a flow line from the summit of Dome C to the Beyond EPICA ice core drill site on Little Dome C in Antarctica. Results show that the oldest ice at the drill site may be 1.12 Ma (at age density of 20 kyr/m) and originate from around 15 km upstream. We also discuss the nature of the 200–250 m thick basal layer which could be composed of accreted ice, stagnant ice, or even disturbed ice containing debris.
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Ailsa Chung, Frédéric Parrenin, Daniel Steinhage, Robert Mulvaney, Carlos Martín, Marie G. P. Cavitte, David A. Lilien, Veit Helm, Drew Taylor, Prasad Gogineni, Catherine Ritz, Massimo Frezzotti, Charles O'Neill, Heinrich Miller, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, and Olaf Eisen
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Marie G. P. Cavitte, Duncan A. Young, Robert Mulvaney, Catherine Ritz, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Gregory Ng, Scott D. Kempf, Enrica Quartini, Gail R. Muldoon, John Paden, Massimo Frezzotti, Jason L. Roberts, Carly R. Tozer, Dustin M. Schroeder, and Donald D. Blankenship
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Radar observation collected above Titan Dome of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is used to describe ice geometry and test a hypothesis that ice beneath the dome is older than 1 million years. An important climate transition occurred between 1.25 million and 700 thousand years ago, and if ice old enough to study this period can be removed as an ice core, new insights into climate dynamics are expected. The new observations suggest the ice is too young – more likely 300 to 800 thousand years old.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
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Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
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The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a key driver of Southern Hemisphere climate variability, but global models often overestimate its persistence in summer. Using high-resolution models, we show this bias can be reduced, along with some improvements in jet latitude and likely a better-resolved eddy-mean flow feedback. Controlled experiments reveal the potential roles of sea surface temperature biases and ocean mesoscales, underscoring the complex mechanisms shaping SAM persistence.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan Lenaerts, Kristine M. Larson, and Knut Christianson
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Traditionally, glaciologists use global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) to measure the surface elevation and velocity of glaciers to understand processes associated with ice flow. Using the interference of GNSS signals that bounce off of the ice sheet surface, we measure the surface height change near GNSS receivers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). From surface height change, we infer daily accumulation rates that we use to understand the drivers of extreme precipitation in the ASE.
Sarah Wauthy and Quentin Dalaiden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-192, 2025
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The surface mass balance (SMB) is one of the main drivers of future Antarctic mass changes. The interannual variability of the SMB is dominated by precipitation and extreme precipitation events (EPEs). In this study, we analyze the role of precipitation and EPEs in the contrasting SMB trends observed in the ice-core records of three adjacent ice rises. Our results show that precipitation and EPEs alone cannot explain the observed contrasts and suggest that other processes may be at work.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Dieter Tetzner, Bradley Markle, Joel Pedro, Guisella Gacitúa, Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, and Sarah Jackson
Clim. Past, 20, 2525–2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2525-2024, 2024
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The chemical records contained in a 12 m firn (ice) core from Peter I Island, a remote sub-Antarctic island situated in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean (the Bellingshausen Sea), capture changes in snowfall and temperature (2002–2017 CE). This data-sparse region has experienced dramatic climate change in recent decades, including sea ice decline and ice loss from adjacent West Antarctic glaciers.
Marie Genevieve Paule Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, and Nicolas Ghilain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3140, 2024
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Ice cores in East Antarctica show contrasting records of past snowfall. We tested if large-scale weather patterns could explain this by combining ice core data with an atmospheric model and radar-derived errors. However, the reconstruction produced unrealistic wind patterns to fit the ice core records. We suggest that uncertainties are not fully captured and that small-scale local wind effects, not represented in the model, could significantly influence snowfall records in the ice cores.
Robert G. Bingham, Julien A. Bodart, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Ailsa Chung, Rebecca J. Sanderson, Johannes C. R. Sutter, Olaf Eisen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Joseph A. MacGregor, Neil Ross, Duncan A. Young, David W. Ashmore, Andreas Born, Winnie Chu, Xiangbin Cui, Reinhard Drews, Steven Franke, Vikram Goel, John W. Goodge, A. Clara J. Henry, Antoine Hermant, Benjamin H. Hills, Nicholas Holschuh, Michelle R. Koutnik, Gwendolyn J.-M. C. Leysinger Vieli, Emma J. Mackie, Elisa Mantelli, Carlos Martín, Felix S. L. Ng, Falk M. Oraschewski, Felipe Napoleoni, Frédéric Parrenin, Sergey V. Popov, Therese Rieckh, Rebecca Schlegel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Xueyuan Tang, Thomas O. Teisberg, Kate Winter, Shuai Yan, Harry Davis, Christine F. Dow, Tyler J. Fudge, Tom A. Jordan, Bernd Kulessa, Kenichi Matsuoka, Clara J. Nyqvist, Maryam Rahnemoonfar, Matthew R. Siegfried, Shivangini Singh, Verjan Višnjević, Rodrigo Zamora, and Alexandra Zuhr
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The ice sheets covering Antarctica have built up over millenia through successive snowfall events which become buried and preserved as internal surfaces of equal age detectable with ice-penetrating radar. This paper describes an international initiative to work together on this archival data to build a comprehensive 3-D picture of how old the ice is everywhere across Antarctica, and how this will be used to reconstruct past and predict future ice and climate behaviour.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
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We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Eric Keenan, and Shashwat Shukla
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2077, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Determining the net balance of snow accumulation on the surface of Antarctica is challenging. Sentinel-1 satellite sensors, which can see through snow, offer a promising method. However, linking their signals to snow amounts is complex due to snow's internal structure and limited on-the-ground data. This study found a connection between satellite signals and snow levels at three locations in Dronning Maud Land. Using models and field data, the method shows potential for wider use in Antarctica.
Ailsa Chung, Frédéric Parrenin, Robert Mulvaney, Luca Vittuari, Massimo Frezzotti, Antonio Zanutta, David A. Lilien, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Olaf Eisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1650, 2024
Short summary
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We applied an ice flow model to a flow line from the summit of Dome C to the Beyond EPICA ice core drill site on Little Dome C in Antarctica. Results show that the oldest ice at the drill site may be 1.12 Ma (at age density of 20 kyr/m) and originate from around 15 km upstream. We also discuss the nature of the 200–250 m thick basal layer which could be composed of accreted ice, stagnant ice, or even disturbed ice containing debris.
Dorothea Elisabeth Moser, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Anja Eichler, and Eric Wolff
The Cryosphere, 18, 2691–2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2691-2024, 2024
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Increasing temperatures worldwide lead to more melting of glaciers and ice caps, even in the polar regions. This is why ice-core scientists need to prepare to analyse records affected by melting and refreezing. In this paper, we present a summary of how near-surface melt forms, what structural imprints it leaves in snow, how various signatures used for ice-core climate reconstruction are altered, and how we can still extract valuable insights from melt-affected ice cores.
Ryan L. Fogt, Quentin Dalaiden, and Gemma K. O'Connor
Clim. Past, 20, 53–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-53-2024, 2024
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Antarctic sea ice is rapidly changing, with record lows set in 2017, 2022, and 2023 following decades of increase. To place these changes in a longer historical context, reconstructions have been created; however, they are quite different prior to observations. Here we find that the differences are more strongly tied to the implied connection of each reconstruction with the atmospheric circulation rather than differences in seasonality or geographic representation.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Hugues Goosse, Kenichi Matsuoka, Sarah Wauthy, Vikram Goel, Rahul Dey, Bhanu Pratap, Brice Van Liefferinge, Thamban Meloth, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 17, 4779–4795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4779-2023, 2023
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The net accumulation of snow over Antarctica is key for assessing current and future sea-level rise. Ice cores record a noisy snowfall signal to verify model simulations. We find that ice core net snowfall is biased to lower values for ice rises and the Dome Fuji site (Antarctica), while the relative uncertainty in measuring snowfall increases rapidly with distance away from the ice core sites at the ice rises but not at Dome Fuji. Spatial variation in snowfall must therefore be considered.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
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Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Ailsa Chung, Frédéric Parrenin, Daniel Steinhage, Robert Mulvaney, Carlos Martín, Marie G. P. Cavitte, David A. Lilien, Veit Helm, Drew Taylor, Prasad Gogineni, Catherine Ritz, Massimo Frezzotti, Charles O'Neill, Heinrich Miller, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 17, 3461–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3461-2023, 2023
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We combined a numerical model with radar measurements in order to determine the age of ice in the Dome C region of Antarctica. Our results show that at the current ice core drilling sites on Little Dome C, the maximum age of the ice is almost 1.5 Ma. We also highlight a new potential drill site called North Patch with ice up to 2 Ma. Finally, we explore the nature of a stagnant ice layer at the base of the ice sheet which has been independently observed and modelled but is not well understood.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, Diana O. Vladimirova, Dieter R. Tetzner, B. Daniel Emanuelsson, Nathan Chellman, Daniel A. Dixon, Hugues Goosse, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Michael Sigl, Danielle G. Udy, Tessa R. Vance, Dominic A. Winski, V. Holly L. Winton, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Akira Hori, Chavarukonam M. Laluraj, Joseph R. McConnell, Yuko Motizuki, Kazuya Takahashi, Hideaki Motoyama, Yoichi Nakai, Franciéle Schwanck, Jefferson Cardia Simões, Filipe Gaudie Ley Lindau, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, Sarah Wauthy, Cunde Xiao, Jiao Yang, Ellen Mosely-Thompson, Tamara V. Khodzher, Ludmila P. Golobokova, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2517–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2517-2023, 2023
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The concentration of sodium and sulfate measured in Antarctic ice cores is related to changes in both sea ice and winds. Here we have compiled a database of sodium and sulfate records from 105 ice core sites in Antarctica. The records span all, or part, of the past 2000 years. The records will improve our understanding of how winds and sea ice have changed in the past and how they have influenced the climate of Antarctica over the past 2000 years.
Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, and Hugues Goosse
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 511–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023, 2023
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The Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM) of variability is partly responsible for the year-to-year rainfall variability over the Guinea coast. We used the current climate models to explore the present-day and future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast. Under future global warming, the total variability of the extreme rainfall indices increases over the Guinea coast. However, the future impact of the AEM on extreme rainfall events decreases over the region.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Fanny Lhardy, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier Paillard, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 19, 1027–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1027-2023, 2023
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The last deglaciation is a period of large warming from 21 000 to 9000 years ago, concomitant with ice sheet melting. Here, we evaluate the impact of different ice sheet reconstructions and different processes linked to their changes. Changes in bathymetry and coastlines, although not often accounted for, cannot be neglected. Ice sheet melt results in freshwater into the ocean with large effects on ocean circulation, but the timing cannot explain the observed abrupt climate changes.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
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We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
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Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Yetang Wang, Xueying Zhang, Wentao Ning, Matthew A. Lazzara, Minghu Ding, Carleen H. Reijmer, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Paolo Grigioni, Petra Heil, Elizabeth R. Thomas, David Mikolajczyk, Lee J. Welhouse, Linda M. Keller, Zhaosheng Zhai, Yuqi Sun, and Shugui Hou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 411–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-411-2023, 2023
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Here we construct a new database of Antarctic automatic weather station (AWS) meteorological records, which is quality-controlled by restrictive criteria. This dataset compiled all available Antarctic AWS observations, and its resolutions are 3-hourly, daily and monthly, which is very useful for quantifying spatiotemporal variability in weather conditions. Furthermore, this compilation will be used to estimate the performance of the regional climate models or meteorological reanalysis products.
Pepijn Bakker, Hugues Goosse, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 18, 2523–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022, 2022
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Natural climate variability plays an important role in the discussion of past and future climate change. Here we study centennial temperature variability and the role of large-scale ocean circulation variability using different climate models, geological reconstructions and temperature observations. Unfortunately, uncertainties in models and geological reconstructions are such that more research is needed before we can describe the characteristics of natural centennial temperature variability.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
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We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
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Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Jeanne Rezsöhazy, Quentin Dalaiden, François Klein, Hugues Goosse, and Joël Guiot
Clim. Past, 18, 2093–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2093-2022, 2022
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Using statistical tree-growth proxy system models in the data assimilation framework may have limitations. In this study, we successfully incorporate the process-based dendroclimatic model MAIDEN into a data assimilation procedure to robustly compare the outputs of an Earth system model with tree-ring width observations. Important steps are made to demonstrate that using MAIDEN as a proxy system model is a promising way to improve large-scale climate reconstructions with data assimilation.
Helene M. Hoffmann, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Amy C. F. King, Jenna A. Epifanio, Kaden Martin, Diana Vladimirova, Helena V. Pryer, Emily Doyle, Axel Schmidt, Jack D. Humby, Isobel F. Rowell, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Robert Mulvaney, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 18, 1831–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1831-2022, 2022
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The WACSWAIN project (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) investigates the fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last warm period on Earth (115 000–130 000 years before present). Within this framework an ice core was recently drilled at Skytrain Ice Rise. In this study we present a stratigraphic chronology of that ice core based on absolute age markers and annual layer counting for the last 2000 years.
Dieter R. Tetzner, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Claire S. Allen, and Mackenzie M. Grieman
Clim. Past, 18, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1709-2022, 2022
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Changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are drivers of recent environmental changes in West Antarctica. However, our understanding of this relationship is limited by short and sparse observational records. Here we present the first regional wind study based on the novel use of diatoms preserved in Antarctic ice cores. Our results demonstrate that diatom abundance is the optimal record for reconstructing wind strength variability over the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt.
Joanne S. Johnson, Ryan A. Venturelli, Greg Balco, Claire S. Allen, Scott Braddock, Seth Campbell, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda L. Hall, Peter D. Neff, Keir A. Nichols, Dylan H. Rood, Elizabeth R. Thomas, and John Woodward
The Cryosphere, 16, 1543–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1543-2022, 2022
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Recent studies have suggested that some portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet were less extensive than present in the last few thousand years. We discuss how past ice loss and regrowth during this time would leave its mark on geological and glaciological records and suggest ways in which future studies could detect such changes. Determining timing of ice loss and gain around Antarctica and conditions under which they occurred is critical for preparing for future climate-warming-induced changes.
Nicolas Ghilain, Stéphane Vannitsem, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Lesley De Cruz, and Wenguang Wei
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1901–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1901-2022, 2022
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Modeling the climate at high resolution is crucial to represent the snowfall accumulation over the complex orography of the Antarctic coast. While ice cores provide a view constrained spatially but over centuries, climate models can give insight into its spatial distribution, either at high resolution over a short period or vice versa. We downscaled snowfall accumulation from climate model historical simulations (1850–present day) over Dronning Maud Land at 5.5 km using a statistical method.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
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The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Dieter R. Tetzner, Claire S. Allen, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 16, 779–798, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-779-2022, 2022
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The presence of diatoms in Antarctic ice cores has been scarcely documented and poorly understood. Here we present a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of the diatom record preserved in a set of Antarctic ice cores. Our results reveal that the timing and amount of diatoms deposited present a strong geographical division. This study highlights the potential of the diatom record preserved in Antarctic ice cores to provide useful information about past environmental changes.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
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Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Karen E. Alley, Christian T. Wild, Adrian Luckman, Ted A. Scambos, Martin Truffer, Erin C. Pettit, Atsuhiro Muto, Bruce Wallin, Marin Klinger, Tyler Sutterley, Sarah F. Child, Cyrus Hulen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Michelle Maclennan, Eric Keenan, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 15, 5187–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, 2021
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We present a 20-year, satellite-based record of velocity and thickness change on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the largest remaining floating extension of Thwaites Glacier (TG). TG holds the single greatest control on sea-level rise over the next few centuries, so it is important to understand changes on the TEIS, which controls much of TG's flow into the ocean. Our results suggest that the TEIS is progressively destabilizing and is likely to disintegrate over the next few decades.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Duncan A. Young, Robert Mulvaney, Catherine Ritz, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Gregory Ng, Scott D. Kempf, Enrica Quartini, Gail R. Muldoon, John Paden, Massimo Frezzotti, Jason L. Roberts, Carly R. Tozer, Dustin M. Schroeder, and Donald D. Blankenship
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4759–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4759-2021, 2021
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We present a data set consisting of ice-penetrating-radar internal stratigraphy: 26 internal reflecting horizons that cover the greater Dome C area, East Antarctica, the most extensive IRH data set to date in the region. This data set uses radar surveys collected over the span of 10 years, starting with an airborne international collaboration in 2008 to explore the region, up to the detailed ground-based surveys in support of the European Beyond EPICA – Oldest Ice (BE-OI) project.
Madison L. Ghiz, Ryan C. Scott, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Matthew Lazzara, and Dan Lubin
The Cryosphere, 15, 3459–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, 2021
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We investigate how melt occurs over the vulnerable ice shelves of West Antarctica and determine that the three primary mechanisms can be evaluated using archived numerical weather prediction model data and satellite imagery. We find examples of each mechanism: thermal blanketing by a warm atmosphere, radiative heating by thin clouds, and downslope winds. Our results signify the potential to make a multi-decadal assessment of atmospheric stress on West Antarctic ice shelves in a warming climate.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
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Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Lucas H. Beem, Duncan A. Young, Jamin S. Greenbaum, Donald D. Blankenship, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Jingxue Guo, and Sun Bo
The Cryosphere, 15, 1719–1730, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1719-2021, 2021
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Radar observation collected above Titan Dome of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is used to describe ice geometry and test a hypothesis that ice beneath the dome is older than 1 million years. An important climate transition occurred between 1.25 million and 700 thousand years ago, and if ice old enough to study this period can be removed as an ice core, new insights into climate dynamics are expected. The new observations suggest the ice is too young – more likely 300 to 800 thousand years old.
Elizabeth Ruth Thomas, Guisella Gacitúa, Joel B. Pedro, Amy Constance Faith King, Bradley Markle, Mariusz Potocki, and Dorothea Elisabeth Moser
The Cryosphere, 15, 1173–1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1173-2021, 2021
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Here we present the first-ever radar and ice core data from the sub-Antarctic islands of Bouvet Island, Peter I Island, and Young Island. These islands have the potential to record past climate in one of the most data-sparse regions on earth. Despite their northerly location, surface melting is generally low, and the upper layer of the ice at most sites is undisturbed. We estimate that a 100 m ice core drilled on these islands could capture climate over the past 100–200 years.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Marissa Dattler, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brooke Medley, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 15, 1065–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, 2021
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Snow density is required to convert observed changes in ice sheet volume into mass, which ultimately drives ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. However, snow properties respond dynamically to wind-driven redistribution. Here we include a new wind-driven snow density scheme into an existing snow model. Our results demonstrate an improved representation of snow density when compared to observations and can therefore be used to improve retrievals of ice sheet mass balance.
Hugues Goosse, Quentin Dalaiden, Marie G. P. Cavitte, and Liping Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 111–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-111-2021, 2021
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Polynyas are ice-free oceanic areas within the sea ice pack. Small polynyas are regularly observed in the Southern Ocean, but large open-ocean polynyas have been rare over the past decades. Using records from available ice cores in Antarctica, we reconstruct past polynya activity and confirm that those events have also been rare over the past centuries, but the information provided by existing data is not sufficient to precisely characterize the timing of past polynya opening.
Tessa Gorte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 14, 4719–4733, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, 2020
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In this paper, we analyze several spatial and temporal criteria to assess the ability of models in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks to recreate past Antarctic surface mass balance. We then compared a subset of the top performing models to all remaining models to refine future surface mass balance predictions under different forcing scenarios. We found that the top performing models predict lower surface mass balance by 2100, indicating less buffering than otherwise expected of sea level rise.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
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Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
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Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
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Short summary
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional...
