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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Alpine glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate in a warming climate. Numerical models allow us to study and anticipate these changes, but the performance of a model is difficult to evaluate. So we compared an ice flow model with the long dataset of observations obtained between 1979 and 2015 on Mer de Glace (Mont Blanc area). The model accurately reconstructs the past evolution of the glacier. We simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace; it could retreat by 2 to 6 km by 2050.
TC | Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
The Cryosphere, 14, 3979–3994, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020
The Cryosphere, 14, 3979–3994, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020

Research article 13 Nov 2020

Research article | 13 Nov 2020

Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution

Vincent Peyaud et al.

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Cited articles

Berthier, E. and Vincent, C.: Relative contribution of surface mass-balance and ice-flux changes to the accelerated thinning of Mer de Glace, French Alps, over 1979-2008, J. Glaciol., 58, 501–512, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J083, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m
Berthier, E., Arnaud, Y., Baratoux, D., Vincent, C., and Rémy, F.: Recent rapid thinning of the ”Mer de Glace” glacier derived from satellite optical images, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020706, 2004. a, b
Berthier, E., Vadon, H., Baratoux, D., Arnaud, Y., Vincent, C., Feigl, K. L., Rémy, F., and Legresy, B.: Surface motion of mountain glaciers derived from satellite optical imagery, Remote Sens. Environ., 95, 14–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.11.005, 2005. a
Berthier, E., Vincent, C., Magnússon, E., Gunnlaugsson, Á. Þ., Pitte, P., Le Meur, E., Masiokas, M., Ruiz, L., Pálsson, F., Belart, J. M. C., and Wagnon, P.: Glacier topography and elevation changes derived from Pléiades sub-meter stereo images, The Cryosphere, 8, 2275–2291, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2275-2014, 2014. a
Braithwaite, R. J.: Positive degree-day factors for ablation on the Greenland ice sheet studied by energy-balance modelling, J. Glaciol., 41, 153–160, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000017846, 1995. a
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Short summary
Alpine glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate in a warming climate. Numerical models allow us to study and anticipate these changes, but the performance of a model is difficult to evaluate. So we compared an ice flow model with the long dataset of observations obtained between 1979 and 2015 on Mer de Glace (Mont Blanc area). The model accurately reconstructs the past evolution of the glacier. We simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace; it could retreat by 2 to 6 km by 2050.
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