Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
Research article
13 Nov 2020
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2020

Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution

Vincent Peyaud, Coline Bouchayer, Olivier Gagliardini, Christian Vincent, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Delphine Six, and Olivier Laarman

Model code and software

Elmer/Ice code CSC - IT Center for Science (CSC)

Short summary
Alpine glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate in a warming climate. Numerical models allow us to study and anticipate these changes, but the performance of a model is difficult to evaluate. So we compared an ice flow model with the long dataset of observations obtained between 1979 and 2015 on Mer de Glace (Mont Blanc area). The model accurately reconstructs the past evolution of the glacier. We simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace; it could retreat by 2 to 6 km by 2050.