Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution

Peyaud, Vincent; Bouchayer, Coline; Gagliardini, Olivier; Vincent, Christian; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Six, Delphine; Laarman, Olivier

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020

TC | Articles | Volume 14, issue 11

The Cryosphere, 14, 3979–3994, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

TC | Articles | Volume 14, issue 11

Research article 13 Nov 2020

Research article | 13 Nov 2020

Numerical modeling of the dynamics of the Mer de Glace glacier, French Alps: comparison with past observations and forecasting of near-future evolution

Vincent Peyaud et al.

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020-supplement

Model code and software

Elmer/Ice code CSC - IT Center for Science (CSC) https://github.com/ElmerCSC/elmerfem

Short summary

Alpine glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate in a warming climate. Numerical models allow us to study and anticipate these changes, but the performance of a model is difficult to evaluate. So we compared an ice flow model with the long dataset of observations obtained between 1979 and 2015 on Mer de Glace (Mont Blanc area). The model accurately reconstructs the past evolution of the glacier. We simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace; it could retreat by 2 to 6 km by 2050.

Alpine glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate in a warming climate. Numerical models...