Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
09 Apr 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 09 Apr 2018
| 09 Apr 2018
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
Stephan Harrison
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
Jeffrey S. Kargel
Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA
Christian Huggel
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich,
Switzerland
John Reynolds
Reynolds International Ltd, Suite 2, Broncoed House, Broncoed Business Park,
Wrexham Road, Mold, Flintshire, UK
Dan H. Shugar
Water, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics Laboratory, University
of Washington Tacoma, WA, 98402, USA
Richard A. Betts
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, UK
Adam Emmer
Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Charles University in
Prague, Faculty of Science, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague, Czech Republic
Department of Human Dimensions of Global Change, Global Change Research
Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986/4a, 60300 Brno, Czech
Republic
Neil Glasser
Centre for Glaciology, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences,
Aberystwyth University, Wales, SY23 3DB, Aberystwyth, UK
Umesh K. Haritashya
Department of Geology, University of Dayton, 300 College Park, Dayton, OH
45469-2364, USA
Jan Klimeš
Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and
Mechanics, Czech Academy of Sciences, V Holešovičkách 41, 182 09
Prague 8, Czech Republic
Liam Reinhardt
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
Yvonne Schaub
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich,
Switzerland
Andy Wiltshire
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, UK
Dhananjay Regmi
Himalayan Research Center, Lainchaur, Kathmandu, Nepal
Vít Vilímek
Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Charles University in
Prague, Faculty of Science, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague, Czech Republic
Related authors
Sarah Shannon, Anthony Payne, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Martina Kauzlaric, David Kriegel, and Stephan Harrison
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 453–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change poses a potential threat to water supply in glaciated river catchments. In this study, we added a snowmelt and glacier melt model to the Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology model (DECIPHeR). The model is applied to the Naryn River catchment in central Asia and is found to reproduce past change discharge and the spatial extent of seasonal snow cover well.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Douglas McNeall, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-280, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-280, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
We can run simulations of the land surface using computer models, to help us understand and predict climate change and its impacts. These simulations are not perfect reproductions of the real land surface, and that can make them less effective tools. We use new statistical and computational techniques to help us understand how different our models are from the real land surface, how to make them more realistic, and how well we can simulate past and future climate.
Sarah Shannon, Anthony Payne, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Martina Kauzlaric, David Kriegel, and Stephan Harrison
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 453–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change poses a potential threat to water supply in glaciated river catchments. In this study, we added a snowmelt and glacier melt model to the Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology model (DECIPHeR). The model is applied to the Naryn River catchment in central Asia and is found to reproduce past change discharge and the spatial extent of seasonal snow cover well.
Stephanie Woodward, Alistair A. Sellar, Yongming Tang, Marc Stringer, Andrew Yool, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14503–14528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the dust scheme in the UKESM1 Earth system model and show generally good agreement with observations. Comparing with the closely related HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, we show that dust differences are not only due to inter-model differences but also to the dust size distribution. Under climate change, HadGEM3-GC3.1 dust hardly changes, but UKESM1 dust decreases because that model includes the vegetation response which, in our models, has a bigger impact on dust than climate change itself.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Adina E. Racoviteanu, Lindsey Nicholson, and Neil F. Glasser
The Cryosphere, 15, 4557–4588, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4557-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Supraglacial debris cover comprises ponds, exposed ice cliffs, debris material and vegetation. Understanding these features is important for glacier hydrology and related hazards. We use linear spectral unmixing of satellite data to assess the composition of map supraglacial debris across the Himalaya range in 2015. One of the highlights of this study is the automated mapping of supraglacial ponds, which complements and expands the existing supraglacial debris and lake databases.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Benedetta Dini, Georgina L. Bennett, Aldina M. A. Franco, Michael R. Z. Whitworth, Kristen L. Cook, Andreas Senn, and John M. Reynolds
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 295–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use long-range smart sensors connected to a network based on the Internet of Things to explore the possibility of detecting hazardous boulder movements in real time. Prior to the 2019 monsoon season we inserted the devices in 23 boulders spread over debris flow channels and a landslide in northeastern Nepal. The data obtained in this pilot study show the potential of this technology to be used in remote hazard-prone areas in future early warning systems.
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
Fang Chen, Meimei Zhang, Huadong Guo, Simon Allen, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Umesh K. Haritashya, and C. Scott Watson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 741–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-741-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-741-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a 30 m dataset to characterize the annual coverage of glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) from 2008 to 2017. Our results show that proglacial lakes are a main contributor to recent lake evolution in HMA, accounting for 62.87 % (56.67 km2) of the total area increase. Regional geographic variability of debris cover, together with trends in warming and precipitation over the past few decades, largely explains the current distribution of supra- and proglacial lake area.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Camilla Mathison, Andrew J. Challinor, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, Sébastien Garrigues, Sophie Moulin, Karina Williams, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 437–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is a common cropping system, particularly in tropical regions. Typically, land surface models only simulate a single crop per year. To understand how sequential crops influence surface fluxes, we implement sequential cropping in JULES to simulate all the crops grown within a year at a given location in a seamless way. We demonstrate the method using a site in Avignon, four locations in India and a regional run for two Indian states.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Felix Leung, Karina Williams, Stephen Sitch, Amos P. K. Tai, Andy Wiltshire, Jemma Gornall, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Timothy Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6201–6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-level ozone (O3) is detrimental to plant productivity and crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) includes a representation of crops (JULES-crop). The parameters for O3 damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against photosynthesis measurements from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE). The result shows good performance for yield, and it helps contribute to understanding of the impacts of climate and air pollution on food security.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Arthur P. K. Argles, Jonathan R. Moore, Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Anna B. Harper, Chris D. Jones, and Peter M. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4067–4089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED) model simulates cohorts of vegetation through mass classes. RED establishes a framework for representing demographic changes through competition, growth, and mortality across the size distribution of a forest. The steady state of the model can be solved analytically, enabling initialization. When driven by mean growth rates from a land-surface model, RED is able to fit the observed global vegetation map, giving a map of implicit mortality rates.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, John M. Edwards, Nicola Gedney, Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Hartley, Margaret A. Hendry, Eddy Robertson, and Kerry Smout-Day
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 483–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Global Land (GL) configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES-GL7 can be used to simulate the exchange of heat, water and momentum over land and is therefore applicable for helping understand past and future changes, and forms the land component of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model. The configuration is freely available subject to licence restrictions.
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Sihan Li, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, Doug McNeall, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Richard A. Betts, and Justin J. Wettstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3017–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many of which have regional biases larger than the expected climate signal over the next half-century. This work shows the potential for improving climate model simulations through a multiphased parameter refinement approach. Regional warm biases are substantially reduced, suggesting this iterative approach is one path to improving climate models and simulations of present and future climate.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Manoel Cardoso, Ted R. Feldpausch, Anna Harper, Chris D. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fire and land-use change are important disturbances within the Earth system, and their inclusion in models is critical to enable the correct simulation of vegetation cover. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES to represent explicit land-use change and fire and to assess the effects of each process on present day vegetation compared to observations. Using historical land-use data and the fire model INFERNO, overall model results are improved by the developments.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Jeffrey Kargel, Andreas Kääb, Simon Gascoin, Gregory Leonard, Etienne Berthier, Alina Karki, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 12, 2883–2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In Tibet, two glaciers suddenly collapsed in summer 2016 and produced two gigantic ice avalanches, killing nine people. This kind of phenomenon is extremely rare. By combining a detailed modelling study and high-resolution satellite observations, we show that the event was triggered by an increasing meltwater supply in the fine-grained material underneath the two glaciers. Contrary to what is often thought, this event is not linked to a change in the thermal condition at the glacier base.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Jingming Chen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Ziqiang Jiang, Weimin Ju, Sebastian Lienert, Julia Nabel, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Hengmao Wang, and Andrew J. Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10333–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Mauna Loa CO2 records and TRENDY multi-model historical simulations, we investigate the different impacts of EP and CP El Niños on interannual carbon cycle variability. Composite analysis indicates that the evolutions of CO2 growth rate anomalies have three clear differences in terms of precursors (negative and neutral), amplitudes (strong and weak), and durations of peak (Dec–Apr and Oct–Jan) during EP and CP El Niños, respectively. We further discuss their terrestrial mechanisms.
Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Karina Williams, and Carolina Duran-Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2857–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamic global vegetation models are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES is a DGVM that represents the land surface in the UK Earth System Model. We compared simulated gross and net primary productivity of vegetation, vegetation distribution, and aspects of the transient carbon cycle to observational datasets. JULES was able to accurately reproduce many aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with the recent improvements.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Adam Emmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 813–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-813-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). It shows how research on GLOFs has become topical over the past few decades (analysed period: 1979–2016). Issues such as (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration are addressed.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Ann V. Rowan, Lindsey Nicholson, Emily Collier, Duncan J. Quincey, Morgan J. Gibson, Patrick Wagnon, David R. Rounce, Sarah S. Thompson, Owen King, C. Scott Watson, Tristram D. L. Irvine-Fynn, and Neil F. Glasser
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-239, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Many glaciers in the Himalaya are covered with thick layers of rock debris that acts as an insulating blanket and so reduces melting of the underlying ice. Little is known about how melt beneath supraglacial debris varies across glaciers and through the monsoon season. We measured debris temperatures across three glaciers and several years to investigate seasonal trends, and found that sub-debris ice melt can be predicted using a temperature–depth relationship with surface temperature data.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Karina Williams, Jemma Gornall, Anna Harper, Andy Wiltshire, Debbie Hemming, Tristan Quaife, Tim Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks in detail at how well the crop model within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), a community land-surface model, is able to simulate irrigated maize in Nebraska. We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varieties.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model.
We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon.
We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
C. Mathison, A. J. Wiltshire, P. Falloon, and A. J. Challinor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4783–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
South Asia is a highly variable region where there is concern over water and food security. The simulations presented suggest an increasing trend in water resources, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century although this is masked by the large annual variability of river flows for this region. Future peak river flows still occur during the monsoon period, with a tendency for reduced frequency of lowest flows and increased magnitude of highest flows across the selected locations.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
F. Frank, B. W. McArdell, C. Huggel, and A. Vieli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2569–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The sudden onset of large and erosive debris flows has been observed recently in different catchments in Switzerland, implicating the importance of erosion for debris flow modelling. Therefore, an erosion model was established based on field data (relationship between maximum shear stress and erosion depth and rate) of several debris flows measured at the Illgraben. Erosion model tests at the Spreitgraben showed considerable improvements in runout pattern as well as hydrograph propagation.
B. Poulter, N. MacBean, A. Hartley, I. Khlystova, O. Arino, R. Betts, S. Bontemps, M. Boettcher, C. Brockmann, P. Defourny, S. Hagemann, M. Herold, G. Kirches, C. Lamarche, D. Lederer, C. Ottlé, M. Peters, and P. Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover is an essential variable in earth system models and determines conditions driving biogeochemical, energy and water exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere. A methodology is presented for mapping plant functional types used in global vegetation models from a updated land cover classification system and open-source conversion tool, resulting from a consultative process among map producers and modelers engaged in the European Space Agency’s Land Cover Climate Change Initiative.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
M. Stähli, M. Sättele, C. Huggel, B. W. McArdell, P. Lehmann, A. Van Herwijnen, A. Berne, M. Schleiss, A. Ferrari, A. Kos, D. Or, and S. M. Springman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
T. Osborne, J. Gornall, J. Hooker, K. Williams, A. Wiltshire, R. Betts, and T. Wheeler
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, 2015
N. F. Glasser, S. J. A. Jennings, M. J. Hambrey, and B. Hubbard
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 239–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-239-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-239-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new map of the surface features of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. The map was compiled from satellite images. It shows many flow-parallel structures that we call "longitudinal ice-surface structures". Their location mirrors the location of fast-flowing glaciers and ice streams in the ice sheet. Their distribution indicates that the major ice-flow configuration of the ice sheet may have remained largely unchanged for the last few hundred years, and possibly even longer.
M. J. Westoby, J. Brasington, N. F. Glasser, M. J. Hambrey, J. M. Reynolds, M. A. A. M. Hassan, and A. Lowe
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 171–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-171-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-171-2015, 2015
R. M. Brahmbhatt, I. M. Bahuguna, B. P. Rathore, S. K. Singh, A. S. Rajawat, R. D. Shah, and J. S. Kargel
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1555-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1555-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
C. Huggel, A. Raissig, M. Rohrer, G. Romero, A. Diaz, and N. Salzmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 475–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Three different disaster databases are analyzed for detection of decadal spatiotemporal changes in the Andes of Peru. We find large variations in the disaster metrics depending on the database. We recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened.
R. A. Betts, N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, and A. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 12, 1317–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, 2015
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
A. Emmer and V. Vilímek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3461–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3461-2014, 2014
S. Nussbaumer, Y. Schaub, C. Huggel, and A. Walz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1611–1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1611-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
A. J. Wiltshire
The Cryosphere, 8, 941–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, 2014
D. Schneider, C. Huggel, A. Cochachin, S. Guillén, and J. García
Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014, 2014
H. Patton, A. Hubbard, T. Bradwell, N. F. Glasser, M. J. Hambrey, and C. D. Clark
Earth Surf. Dynam., 1, 53–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-53-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-53-2013, 2013
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, 2013
A. Emmer and V. Vilímek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1551–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1551-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1551-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
T. O. Holt, N. F. Glasser, D. J. Quincey, and M. R. Siegfried
The Cryosphere, 7, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-797-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-797-2013, 2013
A. Rabatel, B. Francou, A. Soruco, J. Gomez, B. Cáceres, J. L. Ceballos, R. Basantes, M. Vuille, J.-E. Sicart, C. Huggel, M. Scheel, Y. Lejeune, Y. Arnaud, M. Collet, T. Condom, G. Consoli, V. Favier, V. Jomelli, R. Galarraga, P. Ginot, L. Maisincho, J. Mendoza, M. Ménégoz, E. Ramirez, P. Ribstein, W. Suarez, M. Villacis, and P. Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 7, 81–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-81-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Natural Hazards
Brief communication: Rapid ∼ 335 × 106 m3 bed erosion after detachment of the Sedongpu Glacier (Tibet)
Combining modelled snowpack stability with machine learning to predict avalanche activity
Can Saharan dust deposition impact snowpack stability in the French Alps?
A closed-form model for layered snow slabs
Lake volume and potential hazards of moraine-dammed glacial lakes – a case study of Bienong Co, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
A random forest model to assess snow instability from simulated snow stratigraphy
Using snow depth observations to provide insight into the quality of snowpack simulations for regional-scale avalanche forecasting
Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE): 32 years of monitoring remote avalanche depositional zones in high mountains of Afghanistan
Convolutional neural network and long short-term memory models for ice-jam predictions
Brief communication: An approximately 50 Mm3 ice-rock avalanche on 22 March 2021 in the Sedongpu valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Brief communication: Weak control of snow avalanche deposit volumes by avalanche path morphology
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019
Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region
Dynamic crack propagation in weak snowpack layers: insights from high-resolution, high-speed photography
Avalanche danger level characteristics from field observations of snow instability
The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood at Jinwuco, Tibet: causes, impacts, and implications for hazard and risk assessment
Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada
Response of downstream lakes to Aru glacier collapses on the western Tibetan Plateau
On the importance of snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size in assessing the avalanche danger level
The mechanical origin of snow avalanche dynamics and flow regime transitions
On the relation between avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level
Validating modeled critical crack length for crack propagation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK
Where are the avalanches? Rapid SPOT6 satellite data acquisition to map an extreme avalanche period over the Swiss Alps
Brief communication: Collapse of 4 Mm3 of ice from a cirque glacier in the Central Andes of Argentina
Cold-to-warm flow regime transition in snow avalanches
Mechanisms leading to the 2016 giant twin glacier collapses, Aru Range, Tibet
Ground thermal and geomechanical conditions in a permafrost-affected high-latitude rock avalanche site (Polvartinden, northern Norway)
Surge dynamics and lake outbursts of Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram
Brief communication: Observations of a glacier outburst flood from Lhotse Glacier, Everest area, Nepal
Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier
Frozen debris lobe morphology and movement: an overview of eight dynamic features, southern Brooks Range, Alaska
Modeling of crack propagation in weak snowpack layers using the discrete element method
Influence of weak layer heterogeneity and slab properties on slab tensile failure propensity and avalanche release area
The influence of edge effects on crack propagation in snow stability tests
Andreas Kääb and Luc Girod
The Cryosphere, 17, 2533–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2533-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Following the detachment of the 130 × 106 m3 Sedongpu Glacier (south-eastern Tibet) in 2018, the Sedongpu Valley underwent massive large-volume landscape changes. An enormous volume of in total around 330 × 106 m3 was rapidly eroded, forming a new canyon of up to 300 m depth, 1 km width, and almost 4 km length. Such consequences of glacier change in mountains have so far not been considered at this magnitude and speed.
Léo Viallon-Galinier, Pascal Hagenmuller, and Nicolas Eckert
The Cryosphere, 17, 2245–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are a significant issue in mountain areas where they threaten recreationists and human infrastructure. Assessments of avalanche hazards and the related risks are therefore an important challenge for local authorities. Meteorological and snow cover simulations are thus important to support operational forecasting. In this study we combine it with mechanical analysis of snow profiles and find that observed avalanche data improve avalanche activity prediction through statistical methods.
Oscar Dick, Léo Viallon-Galinier, François Tuzet, Pascal Hagenmuller, Mathieu Fructus, Benjamin Reuter, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 17, 1755–1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Saharan dust deposition can drastically change the snow color, turning mountain landscapes into sepia scenes. Dust increases the absorption of solar energy by the snow cover and thus modifies the snow evolution and potentially the avalanche risk. Here we show that dust can lead to increased or decreased snowpack stability depending on the snow and meteorological conditions after the deposition event. We also show that wet-snow avalanches happen earlier in the season due to the presence of dust.
Philipp Weißgraeber and Philipp L. Rosendahl
The Cryosphere, 17, 1475–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents a mathematical model that calculates the behavior of layered snow covers in response to loadings. The information is necessary to predict the formation of snow slab avalanches. While sophisticated computer simulations may achieve the same goal, they can require weeks to run. By using mathematical simplifications commonly used by structural engineers, the present model can provide hazard assessments in milliseconds, even for snowpacks with many layers of different types of snow.
Hongyu Duan, Xiaojun Yao, Yuan Zhang, Huian Jin, Qi Wang, Zhishui Du, Jiayu Hu, Bin Wang, and Qianxun Wang
The Cryosphere, 17, 591–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-591-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a comprehensive investigation of Bienong Co, a moraine-dammed glacial lake on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP), to assess its potential hazards. The maximum lake depth is ~181 m, and the lake volume is ~102.3 × 106 m3. Bienong Co is the deepest known glacial lake with the same surface area on the Tibetan Plateau. Ice avalanches may produce glacial lake outburst floods that threaten the downstream area. This study could provide new insight into glacial lakes on the SETP.
Stephanie Mayer, Alec van Herwijnen, Frank Techel, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 16, 4593–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Information on snow instability is crucial for avalanche forecasting. We introduce a novel machine-learning-based method to assess snow instability from snow stratigraphy simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. To develop the model, we compared observed and simulated snow profiles. Our model provides a probability of instability for every layer of a simulated snow profile, which allows detection of the weakest layer and assessment of its degree of instability with one single index.
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
Arnaud Caiserman, Roy C. Sidle, and Deo Raj Gurung
The Cryosphere, 16, 3295–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches cause considerable material and human damage in all mountain regions of the world. We present the first model to automatically inventory avalanche deposits at the scale of a catchment area – here the Amu Panj in Afghanistan – every year since 1990. This model called Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE) is available online on the Google Engine. SAFE has been designed to be simple and universal to use. Nearly 810 000 avalanches were detected over the 32 years studied.
Fatemehalsadat Madaeni, Karem Chokmani, Rachid Lhissou, Saeid Homayouni, Yves Gauthier, and Simon Tolszczuk-Leclerc
The Cryosphere, 16, 1447–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three deep learning models (CNN, LSTM, and combined CN-LSTM networks) to predict breakup ice-jam events to be used as an early warning system of possible flooding in rivers. In the models, we used hydro-meteorological data associated with breakup ice jams. The models show excellent performance, and the main finding is that the CN-LSTM model is superior to the CNN-only and LSTM-only networks in both training and generalization accuracy.
Chuanxi Zhao, Wei Yang, Matthew Westoby, Baosheng An, Guangjian Wu, Weicai Wang, Zhongyan Wang, Yongjie Wang, and Stuart Dunning
The Cryosphere, 16, 1333–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 March 2021, a ~ 50 Mm 3 ice-rock avalanche occurred from 6500 m a.s.l. in the Sedongpu basin, southeastern Tibet. It caused temporary blockage of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra. We utilize field investigations, high-resolution satellite imagery, seismic records, and meteorological data to analyse the evolution of the 2021 event and its impact, discuss potential drivers, and briefly reflect on implications for the sustainable development of the region.
Hippolyte Kern, Nicolas Eckert, Vincent Jomelli, Delphine Grancher, Michael Deschatres, and Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta
The Cryosphere, 15, 4845–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches are a major component of the mountain cryosphere that often put people, settlements, and infrastructures at risk. This study investigated avalanche path morphological factors controlling snow deposit volumes, a critical aspect of snow avalanche dynamics that remains poorly known. Different statistical techniques show a slight but significant link between deposit volumes and avalanche path morphology.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Melanie Fischer, Oliver Korup, Georg Veh, and Ariane Walz
The Cryosphere, 15, 4145–4163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the greater Himalayan region threaten local communities and infrastructure. We assess this hazard objectively using fully data-driven models. We find that lake and catchment area, as well as regional glacier-mass balance, credibly raised the susceptibility of a glacial lake in our study area to produce a sudden outburst. However, our models hardly support the widely held notion that rapid lake growth increases GLOF susceptibility.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Benjamin Reuter, Grégoire Bobillier, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 15, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Benjamin Reuter, and Frank Techel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3293–3315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches threaten people and infrastructure in snow-covered mountain regions. To mitigate the effects of avalanches, warnings are issued by public forecasting services. Presently, the five danger levels are described in qualitative terms. We aim to characterize the avalanche danger levels based on expert field observations of snow instability. Our findings contribute to an evidence-based description of danger levels and to improve consistency and accuracy of avalanche forecasts.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
Pascal Haegeli, Bret Shandro, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 15, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Using avalanche problem information from public avalanche bulletins, this study presents a new approach for examining the effect of these atmospheric oscillations on the nature of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
Yanbin Lei, Tandong Yao, Lide Tian, Yongwei Sheng, Lazhu, Jingjuan Liao, Huabiao Zhao, Wei Yang, Kun Yang, Etienne Berthier, Fanny Brun, Yang Gao, Meilin Zhu, and Guangjian Wu
The Cryosphere, 15, 199–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-199-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two glaciers in the Aru range, western Tibetan Plateau (TP), collapsed suddenly on 17 July and 21 September 2016, respectively, causing fatal damage to local people and their livestock. The impact of the glacier collapses on the two downstream lakes (i.e., Aru Co and Memar Co) is investigated in terms of lake morphology, water level and water temperature. Our results provide a baseline in understanding the future lake response to glacier melting on the TP under a warming climate.
Frank Techel, Karsten Müller, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 14, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Exploring a large data set of snow stability tests and avalanche observations, we quantitatively describe the three key elements that characterize avalanche danger: snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size. The findings will aid in refining the definitions of the avalanche danger scale and in fostering its consistent usage.
Xingyue Li, Betty Sovilla, Chenfanfu Jiang, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 14, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This numerical study investigates how different types of snow avalanches behave, how key factors affect their dynamics and flow regime transitions, and what are the underpinning rules. According to the unified trends obtained from the simulations, we are able to quantify the complex interplay between bed friction, slope geometry and snow mechanical properties (cohesion and friction) on the maximum velocity, runout distance and deposit height of the avalanches.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Frank Techel, Andreas Stoffel, and Benjamin Reuter
The Cryosphere, 14, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches represent a major natural hazard in seasonally snow-covered mountain regions around the world. To avoid periods and locations of high hazard, avalanche warnings are issued by public authorities. In these bulletins, the hazard is characterized by a danger level. Since the danger levels are not well defined, we analyzed a large data set of avalanches to improve the description. Our findings show discrepancies in present usage of the danger scale and show ways to improve the scale.
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Yves Bühler, Elisabeth D. Hafner, Benjamin Zweifel, Mathias Zesiger, and Holger Heisig
The Cryosphere, 13, 3225–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We manually map 18 737 avalanche outlines based on SPOT6 optical satellite imagery acquired in January 2018. This is the most complete and accurate avalanche documentation of a large avalanche period covering a big part of the Swiss Alps. This unique dataset can be applied for the validation of other remote-sensing-based avalanche-mapping procedures and for updating avalanche databases to improve hazard maps.
Daniel Falaschi, Andreas Kääb, Frank Paul, Takeo Tadono, Juan Antonio Rivera, and Luis Eduardo Lenzano
The Cryosphere, 13, 997–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-997-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In March 2007, the Leñas Glacier in the Central Andes of Argentina collapsed and released an ice avalanche that travelled a distance of 2 km. We analysed aerial photos, satellite images and field evidence to investigate the evolution of the glacier from the 1950s through the present day. A clear potential trigger of the collapse could not be identified from available meteorological and seismic data, nor could a significant change in glacier geometry leading to glacier instability be detected.
Anselm Köhler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Mathias Bavay, Jim McElwaine, and Betty Sovilla
The Cryosphere, 12, 3759–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches show complicated flow behaviour, characterized by several flow regimes which coexist in one avalanche. In this work, we analyse flow regime transitions where a powder snow avalanche transforms into a plug flow avalanche by incorporating warm snow due to entrainment. Prediction of such a transition is very important for hazard mitigation, as the efficiency of protection dams are strongly dependent on the flow regime, and our results should be incorporated into avalanche models.
Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Jeffrey Kargel, Andreas Kääb, Simon Gascoin, Gregory Leonard, Etienne Berthier, Alina Karki, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 12, 2883–2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In Tibet, two glaciers suddenly collapsed in summer 2016 and produced two gigantic ice avalanches, killing nine people. This kind of phenomenon is extremely rare. By combining a detailed modelling study and high-resolution satellite observations, we show that the event was triggered by an increasing meltwater supply in the fine-grained material underneath the two glaciers. Contrary to what is often thought, this event is not linked to a change in the thermal condition at the glacier base.
Regula Frauenfelder, Ketil Isaksen, Matthew J. Lato, and Jeannette Noetzli
The Cryosphere, 12, 1531–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1531-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1531-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
On 26 June 2008, a rock avalanche with a volume of ca. 500 000 m3 detached in the north-east facing slope of Polvartinden, a high-alpine peak in northern Norway. Ice was observed in the failure zone shortly after the rock avalanche, leading to the assumption that degrading permafrost might have played an important role in the detaching of the Signaldalen rock avalanche. Here, we present a four-year series of temperature measurements from the site and subsequent temperature modelling results.
Vanessa Round, Silvan Leinss, Matthias Huss, Christoph Haemmig, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 11, 723–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-723-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-723-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Recent surging of Kyagar Glacier (Karakoram) caused a hazardous ice-dammed lake to form and burst in 2015 and 2016. We use remotely sensed glacier surface velocities and surface elevation to observe dramatic changes in speed and mass distribution during the surge. The surge was hydrologically controlled with rapid summer onset and dramatic termination following lake outburst. Since the surge, the potential outburst hazard has remained high, and continued remote monitoring is crucial.
David R. Rounce, Alton C. Byers, Elizabeth A. Byers, and Daene C. McKinney
The Cryosphere, 11, 443–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-443-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 June 2016, the authors witnessed a glacier outburst flood with origins from Lhotse Glacier, located in the Everest region of Nepal. Observations regarding the size of the flood and a reconstruction of its path immediately following the event were performed. Most of the flood water was stored in the glacier's subsurface and likely released by dam failure. A similar flood from Lhotse Glacier was also reported by local community members on 25 May 2015.
Jérome Faillettaz, Martin Funk, and Marco Vagliasindi
The Cryosphere, 10, 1191–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance thanks to very accurate surface displacement measurements taken right up to the final event.
This break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experience a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture.
This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time.
Margaret M. Darrow, Nora L. Gyswyt, Jocelyn M. Simpson, Ronald P. Daanen, and Trent D. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 10, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-977-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-977-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Frozen debris lobes (FDLs) are slow-moving landslides in permafrost. Several FDLs are located adjacent to the Dalton Highway in Alaska's Brooks Range, and may pose a risk to adjacent infrastructure as their rates of movement increase. Through a comprehensive overview of eight FDLs, we found that FDL movement is asynchronous, surface features suggest that increased movement rates correlate to general instability, and the closest FDL will reach the current Dalton Highway alignment by 2023.
J. Gaume, A. van Herwijnen, G. Chambon, K. W. Birkeland, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1915–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1915-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a new approach to characterize the dynamic phase of crack propagation in weak snowpack layers as well as fracture arrest propensity by means of numerical "propagation saw test" simulations based on the discrete element method. Crack propagation speed and distance before fracture arrest were derived from the simulations for different snowpack configurations and mechanical properties. Numerical and experimental results were compared and the mechanical processes at play were discussed.
J. Gaume, G. Chambon, N. Eckert, M. Naaim, and J. Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 9, 795–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-795-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Slab tensile failure propensity is examined using a mechanical--statistical model of the slab–-weak layer (WL) system based on the finite element method. This model accounts for WL heterogeneity, stress redistribution by elasticity of the slab and the slab possible tensile failure. For realistic values of the parameters, the tensile failure propensity is mainly driven by slab properties. Hard and thick snow slabs are more prone to wide–scale crack propagation and thus lead to larger avalanches.
E. H. Bair, R. Simenhois, A. van Herwijnen, and K. Birkeland
The Cryosphere, 8, 1407–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1407-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Bajracharya, S. R. and Mool, P.: Glaciers, glacial lakes and glacial lake
outburst floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal, Ann. Glaciol., 50,
81–86, 2009.
Bahr, D. B., Pfeffer, W. T., Sassolas, C., and Meier, M. F.: Response time of
glaciers as a function of size and mass balance, J. Geophys. Res., 103,
9777–9782, 1998.
Ballantyne, C. K.: Paraglacial geomorphology, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21,
1935–2017, 2002.
Carey, M.: Living and dying with glaciers: people's historical vulnerability
to avalanches and outburst floods in Peru, Global Planet. Change, 47,
122–134, 2005.
Carey, M., Huggel, C., Bury, J., Portocarrero, C., and Haeberli, W.: An
integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and
climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru,
Clim. Change, 112, 733–767, 2012.
Carrivick, J. L. and Tweed, F. S.: A global assessment of the societal
impacts of glacier outburst floods, Global Planet. Change, 144, 1–16, 2016.
Carrivick, J. L., Russell, A., and Tweed, F. S.: Geomorphological evidence
for jökulhlaups from Kverkfjöll volcano, Iceland, Geomorphology, 63,
81–102, 2004.
Clague, J. J., Evans, S. G., and Blown, I. G.: A debris flow triggered by the
breaching of a moraine-dammed lake, Klattasine Creek, British Columbia, Can.
J. Earth Sci., 22, 1492–1502, 1985.
Clague, J. J. and Evans, S. G.: A review of catastrophic drainage of
moraine-dammed lakes in British Columbia, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19,
1763–1783, 2000.
Costa, J. E. and Schuster, R. L.: The formation and failure of natural dams,
Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 100, 1054–1068, 1988.
Cramer, W., Yohe, G., Auffhammer, M., Huggel, C., Molau, U., Assuncao Fuas da
Silva Dias, M., Solow, A., Stone, D., and Tibig, L.: Detection and
attribution of observed impacts, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros,
V., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 2014.
Ding, Y. and Liu, J.: Glacier lake outburst flood disasters, China Ann.
Glaciol., 16, 180–184, 1992.
Dunning, S. A., Large, A. R. G., Russell, A. J., Roberts, M. J., Duller, R.,
Woodward, J., Mériaux, A.-S., Tweed, F. S., and Lim, M.: The role of
multiple glacier outburst floods in proglacial landscape evolution: The 2010
Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland, Geology, 41, 1123–1126, 2013.
Emmer, A.: Geomorphologically effective floods from moraine-dammed lakes in
the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 177, 220–234, 2017.
Emmer, A., Merkl, S., and Mergili, M.: Spatio-temporal patterns of
high-mountain lakes and related hazards in western Austria, Geomorphology,
246, 602–616, 2015.
Emmer, A., Vilímek, V., Huggel, C., Klimeš, J., and Schaub, Y.:
Limits and challenges to compiling and developing a database of glacial lake
outburst floods, Landslides, 13, 1579–1584, 2016.
Evans, S. F.: The breaching of moraine-dammed lakes in the southern Canadian
Cordillera, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering
Geological Environment in Mountainous Areas, Beijing, China, 4–8 May 1987,
2, 141–159, 1987.
Fujita, K., Sakai, A., Nuimura, T., Yamaguchi, S., and Sharma, R. R.: Recent
changes in Imja glacial lake and its damming moraine in the Nepal Himalaya
revealed by in situ surveys and multi-temporal ASTER imagery., Environ. Res.
Lett., 4 045205, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045205, 2012.
Gardelle, J., Arnaud, Y., and Berthier, E.: Contrasted evolution of glacial
lakes along the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountain range between 1990 and 2009,
Global Planet. Change, 75, 47–55, 2011.
Haeberli, W., Schaub, Y., and Huggel, C.: Increasing risks related to
landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain
ranges, Geomorphology, 293, 405–417, 2017.
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global surface temperature
change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010.
Harrison, S., Glasser, N., Winchester, V., Haresign, E., Warren, C., and
Jansson, K.: A glacial lake outburst flood associated with recent mountain
glacier retreat, Patagonian Andes, The Holocene, 16, 611–620, 2006.
Holm, K., Bovis, M., and Jakob, M.: The landslide response of alpine basins
to post-Little Ice Age glacial thinning and retreat in southwestern British
Columbia, Geomorphology, 57, 201–216, 2004.
Huggel, C., Kääb, A., Haeberli, W., Teysseire, P., and Paul, F.:
Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: a
case study in the Alps, Can. Geotech. J. 39, 316–330, 2002.
Iribarren, P. A., Mackintosh, A., and Norton, K. P.: Hazardous processes and
events from glacier and permafrost areas: lessons from the Chilean and
Argentinean Andes, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 40, 2–21, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3524,
2014.
Ives, J. D., Shrestha, R. B., and Mool, P. K.: Formation of glacial lakes in
the Hindu Kush-Himalayas and GLOF risk assessment, International Centre for
Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMD), Kathmand, available at:
http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/ICIMODGLOF.pdf, 2010.
Jiang, Z. X., Cui, P., and Jiang, L. W.: Critical hydrologic conditions for
overflow burst of moraine lake, Chinese Geogr. Sci., 14, 39–47, 2004.
Jóhannesson, T., Raymond, C., and Waddington, E.: Time scale for
adjustment of glaciers to changes in mass balance, J. Glaciol., 35, 355–369,
1989.
Jones, P. D., Lister, D. H., Osborn, T. J., Harpham, C., Salmon, M., and
Morice, C. P.: Hemispheric and large-scale land surface air temperature
variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010, J. Geophys. Res.,
117, D05127, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017139, 2012.
Kargel, J. S., Leonard, G. J., Bishop, M. P., Kaab, A., and Raup B. (Eds):
Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (Springer-Praxis), Heidelberg,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-79818-7, 2014.
Kershaw, J. A., Clague, J. J., and Evans, S. G.: Geomorphic and
sedimentological signature of a two-phase outburst flood from moraine-dammed
Queen Bess lake, British Columbia, Canada, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 30,
1–25, 2005.
Knight, J. and Harrison, S.: The impacts of climate change on terrestrial
Earth surface systems, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 24–29, 2013.
Korup, O. and Tweed, F.: Ice, moraine, and landslide dams in mountainous
terrain, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 3406–3422, 2007.
Lamsal, D., Sawagaki, T., Watanabe, T., and Byers, A. C.: Assessment of
glacial lake development and prospects of outburst susceptibility: Chamlang
South Glacier, eastern Nepal Himalaya, Geomat. Nat. Haz. Risk, 7, 403–423,
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2014.931306, 2014.
Lane, S. N.: Assessment of rainfall-runoff models based upon wavelet
analysis, Hydrol. Process., 21, 586–607, 2007.
Linsbauer, A., Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Machguth, H., Azam, M. F., and Allen,
S.: Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the
glaciers in the Himalaya – Karakoram region, Ann. Glaciol., 57, 119–130,
2016.
Lliboutry, L., Arnao, B. M., and Schneider, B.: Glaciological problems set by
the control of dangerous lakes in Cordillera Blanca, Peru III: Study of
moraines and mass balances at Safuna, J. Glaciol., 18, 275–290, 1977.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M. K., Bradley, R. S., Miller, S. K., and
Rutherford, S.: Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface
Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
105, 13252–13257, 2008.
Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R., Hughes, M. K., Shindell,
D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., and Ni, F.: Global signatures and dynamical
origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326,
1256–1260, 2009.
Marzeion, B., Cogley, J. G., Richter, K., and Parkes, D.: Attribution of
global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes, Science, 345,
919–921, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254702, 2014.
Mergili, M. and Schneider, J. F.: Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst
hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and
GIS, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1447–1462,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1447-2011, 2011.
Mool, P. K., Maskey, P. R., Koirala, Joshi, S. P., Lizong, W., Shrestha, A.
B., Eriksson, M., Gurung, B., Pokharel, B., Khanal, N. R., Panthi, S.,
Adhikari, T., Kayastha, R. B., Ghimire, P., Thapa, R., Shrestha, B.,
Shrestha, S., and Shrestha, R. B.: Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods in Nepal, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development,
Kathmandu, 99 pp., available at:
http://www.icimod.org/dvds/201104_GLOF/reports/final_report.pdf, 2011.
Narama, C., Severskiy, I., and Yegorov, A.: Current state of glacier changes,
glacial lakes, and outburst floods in the Ile Ala-Tau and Kungoy Ala-Too
ranges, northern Tien Shan Mountains, Ann. Hokkaido Geogr., 84, 22–32,
https://doi.org/10.7886/hgs.84.22, 2010.
O'Connor, J. E., Hardison, J. H., and Costa, J. E.: Debris flows from
failures of Neoglacial-age moraines in the Three Sisters and Mount Jefferson
wilderness areas, Oregon, US 1803 Geological Survey Professional Paper 1606,
2001.
Oerlemans, J.: Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records,
Science, 308, 675–677, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1107046, 2005.
Osti, R. and Egashira, S.: Hydrodynamic characteristics of the Tam Pokhari
Glacial Lake outburst flood in the Mt. Everest region, Nepal, Hydrol. Proc.,
23, 2943–2955, 2009.
Owen, L. A.: Latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacier fluctuations in the
Himalaya and Tibet, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 2150–2164, 2009.
Perov, V., Chernomorets, S., Budarina, O., Svernyuk, E., and Leontyeva, T.:
Debris flow hazards for mountain regions of Russia: regional features and key
events, Nat. Hazards, 88, S199–S235, 2017.
Portocarreo-Rodriguez, C. A. and the Engility Corporation: The Glacial Lake
Handbook: Reducing risk from dangerous glacial lakes in the Cordillera
Blanca, Peru, 68 pp., 2014.
Raper, S. C. B. and Braithwaite, R. J.: Glacier volume response time and its
links to climate and topography based on a conceptual model of glacier
hypsometry, The Cryosphere, 3, 183–194,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-183-2009, 2009.
Raymond, M., Wegmann, M., and Funk, M.: Inventar gefährlicher Gletscher
in der Schweiz, Mitt. VAW/ETH, reprot no. 182, 368 pp., 2003.
Reynolds, J. M.: The identification and mitigation of glacier-related
hazards: examples from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, in: McCall, G. J. H.,
Laming, D. C. J., and Scott, S., Geo-hazards, London, Chapman & Hall,
143–157, 1992.
Reynolds, J. M. and Richardson, S.: Geological Hazards – Glacial Natural
Disaster Management, A presentation to commemorate the International Decade
for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) 1990–2000, 2000.
RGSL: Ongoing efforts to detect, monitor and mitigate the effects of GLOFs in
Nepal, Reynolds Geo-Sciences Ltd, Project No. J9622.021, 1997.
RGSL: Glacial hazard assessment for the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan, Reynolds Geo-Sciences Ltd, J02134,
2002.
Riaz, S., Ali, A., and Baig, M. N.: Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst
floods as a consequence of climate change in the Himalayan region,
Jàmbá, J. Disaster Risk Studies, 6, 110, https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v6i1.110,
2014.
Richardson, S. D. and Reynolds, J. M.: An overview of glacial hazards in the
Himalayas, Quaternary Int., 65/66, 31–47, 2000.
Roberts, M., Tweed, F., Russell, A., Knudsen, O., and Harris, T.: Hydrologic
and geomorphic effects of temporary ice-dammed lake formation during
Jökulhlaups, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 28, 723–737, 2003.
Roe, G. H, Baker, M. B., and Herla, F.: Centennial glacier retreat as
categorical evidence of regional climate change, Nature Geosci., 10, 95–99,
2017.
Russell, A., Tweed, F. S., Roberts, M. J, Harris, T. D., Gudmundsson, M. T.,
Knudsen, O., and Marren, P. M.: An unusual jökulhlaup resulting from
subglacial volcanism, Sólheimajökull, Iceland, Quaternary Sci. Rev.,
29, 1363–1381, 2010.
Schaub, Y., Haeberli, W., Huggel, C., Künzler, M., and Bründl, M.:
Landslides and new lakes in deglaciating areas: a risk management framework,
in: Landslide Science and Practice, edited by: Margottini, C., Canuti, P.,
and Sassa, K., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 31–38,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31313-4_5, 2013.
Schneider, D., Huggel, C., Cochachin, A., Guillén, S., and García,
J.: Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods based on modelling of
process cascades at Lake 513, Carhuaz, Peru, Adv. Geosci., 35, 145–155,
2014.
Shugar, D. H. and Clague, J. J.: The sedimentology and geomorphology of rock
avalanche deposits on glaciers, Sedimentology, 58, 1762–1783, 2011.
Shugar, D. H., Kostaschuk, R., Best, J. L., Parsons, D. R., Lane, S. N.,
Orefeo, O., and Hardy, R. J.: On the relationship between flow and suspended
sediment transport over the crest of a sand dune, Río Paraná,
Argentina, Sedimentology, 57, 252–272, 2010.
Shugar, D. H., Clague, J. J., Best, J. L., Schoof, C., Willis, M. J.,
Copland, L., and Roe, G. H.: River piracy and drainage basin reorganization
led by climate-driven glacier retreat, Nat. Geosci., 10, 370–375,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2932, 2017.
Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., and Lawrimore, J. L.:
Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature
Analysis (1880–2006), J. Climate, 21, 2283–2293, 2008.
Solomina, O., Bradley, R., Hodgson, D., Ivy-Ochs, S., Jomelli, V.,
Mackintosh, A., Nesje, A., Owen, L., Wanner, H., Wiles, G., and Young, N.:
Holocene glacier fluctuations, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 111, 9–34, 2015.
Stone, D., Auffhammer, M., Carey, M., Hansen, G., Huggel, C., Cramer, W.,
Lobell, D., Molau, U., Solow, A., Tibig, L., and Yohe, G.: The challenge to
detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems,
Clim. Change, 121, 381–395, 2013.
Tweed, F. S. and Russell, A. J.: Controls on the formation and sudden
drainage of glacier-impounded lakes: implications for jökulhlaup
characteristics, Prog. Phys. Geog., 23, 79–110, 1999.
University of Oslo: Database of glacier and permafrost disasters, University
of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, http://www.gaphaz.org/, 2013.
Vilímek, V., Emmer, A., Huggel, Ch., Schaub, Y., and Würmli, S.:
Database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) – IPL Project No. 179,
Landslides, 11, 161–165, 2014.
Walder, J. S. and Costa, J. E.: Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes:
the effect of mode of lake drainage on flood magnitude, Earth Surf. Proc.
Land., 21, 701–723, 1996.
Wang, S., Zhang, M., Li, Z., Wang, F., Li, H., Li, Y., and Huand, X.: Glacier
area variation and climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since
1960, J. Geogr. Sci., 21, 263–273, 2011.
Watson, C. S., Quincey, D. J., Carrivick, J. L., and Smith, M. W.: Ice cliff
dynamics in the Everest region of the Central Himalaya, Geomorphology, 278,
238–251, 2017.
Westoby, M. J., Glasser, N. F., Hambrey, M. J., Brasington, J., Reynolds, J.
M., and Hassan, M.: Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events
in the Himalaya, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 39, 1675–1692, 2014.
Wilson, R., Glasser, N. F., Reynolds, J. M., Harrison, S., Anacona, P. I.,
Schaefer, M., and Shannon, S.: Glacial lakes of the Central and Patagonian
Andes, Global Planet. Change, 162, 275–291,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.01.004, 2018.
Worni, R., Stoffel, M., Huggel, C., Volz, C., Casteller, A., and Luckman, B.:
Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake outburst
flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes (Argentina), J. Hydrol.,
444–445, 134–145, 2012.
Xu, D.: Characteristics of debris flow caused by outburst of glacial lakes on
the Boqu River in Xizang, China, J. Glaciol. Geocryol., 9, 23–34, 1987.
Zapata, M. L.: La dinamica glaciar en lagunas de la Cordillera Blanca, Acta
Montana, 19, 37–60, 2002.
Zemp, M., Frey, H., Gärtner-Roer, I., Nussbaumer, S. U., Hoelzle, M.,
Paul, F., Haeberli, W., Denzinger, F., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Anderson, B., and
Bajracharya, S.: Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the
early 21st century, J. Glaciol., 61, 745–762, 2015.
Short summary
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate...
