Articles | Volume 8, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-705-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-705-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Apr 2014
Research article |
| 22 Apr 2014
Uncertainties in Arctic sea ice thickness and volume: new estimates and implications for trends
M. Zygmuntowska
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
P. Rampal
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
N. Ivanova
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
L. H. Smedsrud
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
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Fabien Salmon, Pierre Rampal, Stéphanie Leroux, Timothy Williams, Einar Ólason, and Nicolas Barral
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1869, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Accurate modeling of sea ice dynamics is a major challenge for forecasting its future evolution and assessing its impact on climate change. This paper presents the parallelisation of state-of-the art sea-ice dynamics model NeXtSIM. The code was interfaced with a new parallel version of the remeshing library MMG. Validation and performance of the code are discussed. Simulations with a uniform 1km spatial resolution are run, which is unprecedented with this kind of lagrangian sea-ice models.
Shaun A. Eisner, James A. Carton, Leon Chafik, and Lars H. Smedsrud
Ocean Sci., 22, 1073–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1073-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1073-2026, 2026
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The Barents Sea is a major route for Atlantic Water to enter the Arctic. Cold air cools incoming Atlantic Water before it exits to the Arctic through the St. Anna Trough. We derive the first long-term estimate of the heat leaving the Barents Sea through St. Anna Trough. The heat leaving has increased since 1980, but only by half as much as the increase in heat entering. Finally, we present evidence for a previously proposed "ocean feedback" mechanism to help cool inflowing Atlantic Water.
Letizia Tedesco, Delphine Lannuzel, Julie Janssen, and Lars H. Smedsrud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6509, 2026
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Sea ice around Antarctica contains much more iron than the surrounding ocean, but how this iron becomes trapped in ice has been unclear. We used a computer model to show that tiny ice crystals forming in turbulent winter waters can collect iron from seawater and concentrate it in newly formed ice. When this ice melts, it can release a short but intense pulse of iron that helps fuel ocean life and supports the Southern Ocean’s role in regulating climate.
Lohenn Fiol, Stephanie Leroux, Pierre Rampal, and Jean-Michel Brankart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6379, 2026
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We examine how uncertainty in the initial position of sea ice features (leads, ridges), affects daily-to-weekly winter sea-ice forecasts. Using ensemble simulations with a sea ice–ocean model, we compare two formulations of sea ice mechanics. We show that pack-ice dynamics are highly sensitive to this choice: one formulation strongly amplifies small initial errors, while the other damps them. Our results highlight the need for ensemble forecasts to capture uncertainty and risks in the Arctic.
Linda Latuta, Lars H. Smedsrud, Elin Darelius, Per Juel Hansen, and Josh K. Willis
Ocean Sci., 21, 3487–3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3487-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3487-2025, 2025
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New hydrographic observations from Disko Bay, Greenland, focus on the previously undersampled autumn to spring seasons. Data collected between 2022 and 2024 reveal seasonal inflow of warm, salty Atlantic water from Baffin Bay, as well as seasonal and spatial variability within cooler Polar Water. The findings establish a framework for interpreting physical variability within Disko Bay and its connection to the west Greenland coastal system.
Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Heather Regan, Jonathan Rheinlænder, Pierre Rampal, Daniela Flocco, Abdoulaye Samaké, Richard Davy, Timothy Spain, and Sean Chua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3521, 2025
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This paper introduces a new version of the neXtSIM sea-ice model. NeXtSIM is unique among sea-ice models in how it represents sea-ice dynamics, focusing on features such as cracks and ridges and how these impact interactions between the atmosphere and ocean where sea ice is present. The new version introduces some physical parameterisations and model options detailed and explained in the paper. Following the paper's publication, the neXtSIM code will be released publicly for the first time.
Rémy Lapere, Louis Marelle, Pierre Rampal, Laurent Brodeau, Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, and Jennie L. Thomas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12107–12132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12107-2024, 2024
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Elongated open-water areas in sea ice, called leads, can release marine aerosols into the atmosphere. In the Arctic, this source of atmospheric particles could play an important role for climate. However, the amount, seasonality and spatial distribution of such emissions are all mostly unknown. Here, we propose a first parameterization for sea spray aerosols emitted through leads in sea ice and quantify their impact on aerosol populations in the high Arctic.
Laurent Brodeau, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, and Véronique Dansereau
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6051–6082, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6051-2024, 2024
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A new brittle sea ice rheology, BBM, has been implemented into the sea ice component of NEMO. We describe how a new spatial discretization framework was introduced to achieve this. A set of idealized and realistic ocean and sea ice simulations of the Arctic have been performed using BBM and the standard viscous–plastic rheology of NEMO. When compared to satellite data, our simulations show that our implementation of BBM leads to a fairly good representation of sea ice deformations.
Yumeng Chen, Polly Smith, Alberto Carrassi, Ivo Pasmans, Laurent Bertino, Marc Bocquet, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 18, 2381–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024, 2024
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We explore multivariate state and parameter estimation using a data assimilation approach through idealised simulations in a dynamics-only sea-ice model based on novel rheology. We identify various potential issues that can arise in complex operational sea-ice models when model parameters are estimated. Even though further investigation will be needed for such complex sea-ice models, we show possibilities of improving the observed and the unobserved model state forecast and parameter accuracy.
Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, Yue Ying, Einar Ólason, and Timothy Williams
The Cryosphere, 17, 4223–4240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023, 2023
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It is possible to compute sea ice motion from satellite observations and detect areas where ice converges (moves together), forms ice ridges or diverges (moves apart) and opens leads. However, it is difficult to predict the exact motion of sea ice and position of ice ridges or leads using numerical models. We propose a new method to initialise a numerical model from satellite observations to improve the accuracy of the forecasted position of leads and ridges for safer navigation.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
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Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Guillaume Boutin, Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, Heather Regan, Camille Lique, Claude Talandier, Laurent Brodeau, and Robert Ricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 617–638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-617-2023, 2023
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Sea ice cover in the Arctic is full of cracks, which we call leads. We suspect that these leads play a role for atmosphere–ocean interactions in polar regions, but their importance remains challenging to estimate. We use a new ocean–sea ice model with an original way of representing sea ice dynamics to estimate their impact on winter sea ice production. This model successfully represents sea ice evolution from 2000 to 2018, and we find that about 30 % of ice production takes place in leads.
Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, Pierre Rampal, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 15, 3207–3227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021, 2021
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neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model) includes a novel and extremely realistic way of modelling sea ice dynamics – i.e. how the sea ice moves and deforms in response to the drag from winds and ocean currents. It has been developed over the last few years for a variety of applications, but this paper represents its first demonstration in a forecast context. We present results for the time period from November 2018 to June 2020 and show that it agrees well with satellite observations.
Marcel Kleinherenbrink, Anton Korosov, Thomas Newman, Andreas Theodosiou, Alexander S. Komarov, Yuanhao Li, Gert Mulder, Pierre Rampal, Julienne Stroeve, and Paco Lopez-Dekker
The Cryosphere, 15, 3101–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3101-2021, 2021
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Harmony is one of the Earth Explorer 10 candidates that has the chance of being selected for launch in 2028. The mission consists of two satellites that fly in formation with Sentinel-1D, which carries a side-looking radar system. By receiving Sentinel-1's signals reflected from the surface, Harmony is able to observe instantaneous elevation and two-dimensional velocity at the surface. As such, Harmony's data allow the retrieval of sea-ice drift and wave spectra in sea-ice-covered regions.
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