Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5761-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5761-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 09 Oct 2026
| 09 Oct 2026
Antarctic sea ice response to meltwater due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss in a multi-model ensemble
Andrew G. Pauling
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
Inga J. Smith
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Torge Martin
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Jeff K. Ridley
Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
David P. Stevens
Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Max Thomas
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Rebecca L. Beadling
Earth and Environmental Science Department, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Christopher Danek
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
Qian Li
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
John Marshall
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Morven Muilwijk
Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
Ariaan Purich
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment and ARC Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Kulin Nations, Australia
Neil C. Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Related authors
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
The Cryosphere, 20, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting – a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Rosie Chance, Martin R. Wadley, Lucy J. Carpenter, Ryan Pound, Mat J. Evans, Timothy D. Jickells, and David P. Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4580, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic iodine has a profound impact on air quality and climate. Reaction with iodide at the sea surface is a key removal process for tropospheric ozone, a super-pollutant. Iodide concentrations vary according to biogeochemical processes and ocean mixing and circulation. Knowledge of iodide is crucial for modelling atmospheric ozone. We present a global mechanistic model (I-CYCLE) of the marine iodine cycle that can predict iodide and iodate distributions in the past, present and future.
Forrest M. Hoffman, Birgit Hassler, Ranjini Swaminathan, Jared Lewis, Bouwe Andela, Nathan Collier, Dóra Hegedűs, Jiwoo Lee, Charlotte Pascoe, Mika Pflüger, Martina Stockhause, Paul Ullrich, Min Xu, Lisa Bock, Felicity Chun, Bettina K. Gier, Douglas I. Kelley, Axel Lauer, Julien Lenhardt, Manuel Schlund, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Katja Weigel, Ed Blockley, Rebecca Beadling, Romain Beucher, Demiso D. Dugassa, Valerio Lembo, Jianhua Lu, Swen Brands, Jerry Tjiputra, Elizaveta Malinina, Brian Medeiros, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jeremy Walton, Phil Kershaw, André Lanfer Marquez, Malcolm J. Roberts, Eleanor O'Rourke, Beth Dingley, Briony Turner, Helene Hewitt, and John P. Dunne
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7415–7455, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) is a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of Earth system models. Built upon four disparate community evaluation tools, the REF is designed to provide model-data comparisons for the Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The REF will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation to enable model devleopers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues.
Prince Xavier, Martin Willett, Tim Graham, Paul Earnshaw, Dan Copsey, Nikesh Narayan, Charline Marzin, Alistair Sellar, Duncan Ackerley, Adam Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Andrew Bushell, Nakbin Choi, Xin Rong Chua, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Muhammad Hassim, Julian Heming, Debra Hudson, Sarah Ineson, Anthony Jones, Colin Jones, Richard Keane, Kiwook Kim, Jiyeong Kim, Till Kuhlbrodt, Myong-In Lee, Richard Levine, Chen Li, Gill Martin, Alex Megann, Anne Mccabe, Aurel Moise, Leighton Regayre, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Sandeep Sahany, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, David Storkey, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Yoko Tsushima, Graham P. Weedon, Alex West, Matthew C. Wheeler, Keith Williams, Xiaobing Zhou, and Hongyan Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4281, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
GC5 is the Met Office's newest climate and weather model, combining an updated atmosphere/land component with an improved ocean and sea-ice component. Compared to its predecessor GC4, it better simulates global temperatures, winds, monsoons over India and SE Asia, and African weather, and forecasts tropical cyclones more accurately. Southern Ocean errors shrank too. Some tropical patterns and regional biases worsened slightly. A lower-resolution version will underpin the UK's Earth System Model.
Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Christian Stepanek, Chris Brierley, David Schroeder, Masa Kageyama, Matthew Pollock, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ed Blockley, Alex West, Danny Feltham, Jeff Ridley, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, Xiaoxu Shi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Sophia I. Macarewich, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Qiong Zhang, Allegra LeGrande, Weipeng Zheng, Dabang Jiang, Polina Morozova, Chuncheng Guo, Zhongshi Zhang, Nicholas Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Masakazu Yoshimori, Olivia Reeves, and Anni Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 5881–5905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5881-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5881-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic may have lost its summer sea ice 127,000 years ago during a naturally warm period in Earth’s past. Climate models can be tested by recreating those conditions, with similar sunlight and greenhouse gas levels. Analysing the large sea ice changes in these simulations helps us understand how the Arctic might respond in the near future and improves how we test and trust our climate models.
Sayantani Ojha, Joakim Kjellsson, Torge Martin, Léon Chafik, Eric Maisonnave, and Wonsun Park
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1481, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We study how model resolution affects the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean, with a focus on heat transport. Using a new climate model that improves interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, we compare simulations with different resolutions. Higher ocean resolution improves sea surface temperature and ocean circulation. Increasing both ocean and atmospheric resolution produces a more realistic balance of heat transport due to matching grid resolutions.
Torge Martin, Carolina O. Dufour, Andrew J. S. Meijers, and Alyce M. Hancock
Ocean Sci., 22, 1429–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1429-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1429-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
In the next 7 years major observational programs will be launched to improve our understanding of the Southern Ocean, the changes it is experiencing and its role in global warming. For these to advance current knowledge, we believe intense exchange with the numerical modelling community is essential. The survey results presented help to identify urgently needed observations for model development and underline the importance to explore new avenues in communication, collaboration and education.
Elio Campitelli, Ariaan Purich, Julie Arblaster, Eun-Pa Lim, Matthew C. Wheeler, and Phillip Reid
The Cryosphere, 20, 2557–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2557-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
By comparing sea-ice forecasts made by the same model but using different initial conditions, we show that better initial sea-ice initial conditions improve sea-ice forecasts a lot in Summer and Autumn, but not as much in winter. This means that forecasting groups should focus efforts in assimilating observations in Summer and that research on how easy it is to predict sea ice need to analyse all seasons.
Mara Y. McPartland, Tomas Lovato, Charles Koven, Jamie D. Wilson, Briony Turner, Colleen M. Petrik, José Licón-Saláiz, Fang Li, Fanny Lhardy, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Michio Kawamiya, Birgit Hassler, Nathan P. Gillett, Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christopher Danek, Chris M. Brierley, Ana Bastos, and Oliver Andrews
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2849–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international consortium of climate modeling groups that produce coordinated experiments in order to evaluate human influence on the climate and test knowledge of Earth systems. This paper describes the data requested for Earth systems research in CMIP7. We detail the request for model output of the carbon cycle, the flows of energy among the atmosphere, land and the oceans, and interactions between these and the global climate.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
The Cryosphere, 20, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting – a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia Giulivi, Andrew Meijers, Won Sang Lee, Tae-Wan Kim, Tore Hattermann, and Markus Janout
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-727, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-727, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
A collection of temperature and salinity measurements made in the Southern Ocean and around Antarctic continental shelf seas is assembled and described in this paper. A gridded product developed out of these scattered data points is also described. The gridded product provide us a better view of contemporary mean status of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic shelf seas and help models to better reference the prediction of the future climate.
Zhaoyang Kong, Andrew T. Prata, Peter T. May, Ariaan Purich, Yi Huang, and Steven T. Siems
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1643–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1643-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1643-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate why ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5) does not accurately capture the observed increase in annual precipitation at Macquarie Island during 1979 to 2023, we classify daily synoptic systems using k-means clustering. Find that the increase in mean intensity across all systems is the main contributor to the observed annual precipitation trend and the resulting discrepancy, rather than changes in the frequency. And this increase may also have a substantial impact on the freshwater fluxes over the Southern Ocean.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Helen J. Shea, Ailie Gallant, Ariaan Purich, and Tessa R. Vance
Clim. Past, 21, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-2009-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core data from Mount Brown South (MBS), East Antarctica links high sea salt years to stronger westerly winds and increased sea ice near MBS's northeast coast. Low pressure storms off the coast might transport sea salts from sea ice regions to MBS. The tropical Pacific influences sea salt levels with El Niño events affecting wind patterns around MBS, impacting sea salt sources. Identifying these mechanisms aids in the understanding of climate variability before instrumental records.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8129–8142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8129-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8129-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model's rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source, as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how sources of regional rain or snowfall might change owing to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adrian Jenkins, Alessandro Silvano, Christopher Auckland, E. Povl Abrahamsen, Michael Meredith, Irena Vaňková, Keith Nicholls, Peter E. D. Davis, Svein Østerhus, Arnold L. Gordon, Christopher J. Zappa, Tiago S. Dotto, Ted Scambos, Kathryn L. Gunn, Stephen R. Rintoul, Shigeru Aoki, Craig Stevens, Chengyan Liu, Sukyoung Yun, Tae-Wan Kim, Won Sang Lee, Markus Janout, Tore Hattermann, Julius Lauber, Elin Darelius, Anna Wåhlin, Leo Middleton, Pasquale Castagno, Giorgio Budillon, Karen J. Heywood, Jennifer Graham, Stephen Dye, Daisuke Hirano, and Una Kim Miller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5693–5706, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5693-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We created the first standardised dataset of in-situ ocean measurements time series from around Antarctica collected since 1970s. This includes temperature, salinity, pressure, and currents recorded by instruments deployed in icy, challenging conditions. Our analysis highlights the dominance of tidal currents and separates these from other patterns to study regional energy distribution. This unique dataset offers a foundation for future research on Antarctic ocean dynamics and ice interactions.
Miriam Seifert, Christopher Danek, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 22, 5897–5919, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5897-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5897-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) can help to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Yet, our study is the first to investigate the link between OAE and phytoplankton in an Earth system model. We show that OAE can indirectly decrease primary production and that biological feedbacks can modify the efficiency of OAE. Our study provides hints for ecological risks of OAE and the quantification of carbon drawdown and can serve as a kick start for other models to consider OAE–ecosystem interactions.
Ole Zeising, Tore Hattermann, Lars Kaleschke, Sophie Berger, Olaf Boebel, Reinhard Drews, M. Reza Ershadi, Tanja Fromm, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2837–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves impacts the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study focuses on the Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using multiyear data from an autonomous radar system. Results show a surprising seasonal pattern of high melt rates in winter and spring. The seasonalities of sea-ice growth and ocean density indicate that, in winter, dense water enhances plume activity and melt rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving future mass balance projections.
Linus Shihora, Torge Martin, Anna Christina Hans, Rebecca Hummels, Michael Schindelegger, and Henryk Dobslaw
Ocean Sci., 21, 1533–1548, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1533-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major part of the ocean circulation. Satellite gravimetry missions, like GRACE, which measure changes in Earth's mass distribution, could help monitor changes in the AMOC by detecting variations in ocean bottom pressure. To help assess if future satellite missions could detect these changes, we used ocean model simulation data to study their connection. Additionally, we created a synthetic data set for future satellite mission simulations.
Jessica M. A. Macha, Andrew N. Mackintosh, Felicity S. McCormack, Benjamin J. Henley, Helen V. McGregor, Christiaan T. van Dalum, and Ariaan Purich
The Cryosphere, 19, 1915–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1915-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have global impacts, but their Antarctic impacts are poorly understood. Examining Antarctic snow accumulation anomalies of past observed extreme ENSO events, we show that accumulation changes differ between events and are insignificant during most events. Significant changes occur during 2015/16 and in Enderby Land during all extreme El Niños. Historical data limit conclusions, but future greater extremes could cause Antarctic accumulation changes.
David Storkey, Pierre Mathiot, Michael J. Bell, Dan Copsey, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Helene T. Hewitt, Jeff Ridley, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2725–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean is a key region of the world ocean in the context of climate change studies. We show that the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled model with intermediate ocean resolution struggles to accurately simulate the Southern Ocean. Increasing the frictional drag that the seafloor exerts on ocean currents and introducing a representation of unresolved ocean eddies both appear to reduce the large-scale biases in this model.
Julius Lauber, Tore Hattermann, Laura de Steur, Elin Darelius, and Agneta Fransson
Ocean Sci., 20, 1585–1610, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have highlighted the potential vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric and oceanic changes. We present new insights from observations from three oceanic moorings below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf from 2009 to 2023. We find that relatively warm water masses reach below the ice shelf both close to the surface and at depth with implications for the basal melting of Fimbulisen.
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Evgenii Salganik, Benjamin A. Lange, Christian Katlein, Ilkka Matero, Philipp Anhaus, Morven Muilwijk, Knut V. Høyland, and Mats A. Granskog
The Cryosphere, 17, 4873–4887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic Ocean is covered by a layer of sea ice that can break up, forming ice ridges. Here we measure ice thickness using an underwater sonar and compare ice thickness reduction for different ice types. We also study how the shape of ridged ice influences how it melts, showing that deeper, steeper, and narrower ridged ice melts the fastest. We show that deformed ice melts 3.8 times faster than undeformed ice at the bottom ice--ocean boundary, while at the surface they melt at a similar rate.
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new activity which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of this “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Patrick J. Duke, Roberta C. Hamme, Debby Ianson, Peter Landschützer, Mohamed M. M. Ahmed, Neil C. Swart, and Paul A. Covert
Biogeosciences, 20, 3919–3941, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is both impacted by climate change and helps mitigate its effects through taking up carbon from the atmosphere. We used a machine learning approach to investigate what controls open-ocean carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific open ocean. Marine heatwaves that lasted 2–3 years increased uptake, while the upwelling strength of the Alaskan Gyre controlled uptake over 10-year time periods. The trend from 1998–2019 suggests carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific open ocean is increasing.
Max Thomas, Briana Cate, Jack Garnett, Inga J. Smith, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Crispin Halsall
The Cryosphere, 17, 3193–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A recent study showed that pollutants can be enriched in growing sea ice beyond what we would expect from a perfectly dissolved chemical. We hypothesise that this effect is caused by the specific properties of the pollutants working in combination with fluid moving through the sea ice. To test our hypothesis, we replicate this behaviour in a sea-ice model and show that this type of modelling can be applied to predicting the transport of chemicals with complex behaviour in sea ice.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Manoj Joshi, Robert A. Hall, David P. Stevens, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 443–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon's orbital plane and affects ocean tides. In this work we use a climate model to examine the effect of this cycle on the ocean, surface, and atmosphere. The timing of anomalies is consistent with the so-called slowdown in global warming and has implications for when global temperatures will exceed 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. Regional anomalies have implications for seasonal climate areas such as Europe.
Parsa Gooya, Neil C. Swart, and Roberta C. Hamme
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 383–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on the ocean carbon sink and sources of uptake uncertainty from the latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We diagnose the highly active regions for the sink and show how knowledge about historical regions of uptake will provide information about future regions of uptake change and uncertainty. We evaluate the dependence of uncertainty on the location and integration scale. Our results help make useful suggestions for both modeling and observational communities.
Torge Martin and Arne Biastoch
Ocean Sci., 19, 141–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
How is the ocean affected by continued Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss? We show in a systematic set of model experiments that atmospheric feedback needs to be accounted for as the large-scale ocean circulation is more than twice as sensitive to the meltwater otherwise. Coastal winds, boundary currents, and ocean eddies play a key role in redistributing the meltwater. Eddy paramterization helps the coarse simulation to perform better in the Labrador Sea but not in the North Atlantic Current region.
Theodoros Karpouzoglou, Morven Muilwijk, Julius Lauber, Apostolos Tsiouvalas, and Johanna Brehmer-Moltmann
Geosci. Commun. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2022-14, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2022-14, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
"Bold statements”, are motivating, easily conceived, but often inaccurate. The study seeks the origin, purpose, and threats of such statements in climate science communication. Bold statement communication is enforced by the urgency of climate change and is useful in raising public awareness and accelerating law-making. However, we demonstrate through three well-known case studies of bold statement communication that such communication strategies encompass risks as misinterpretation lurks.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Alan D. Fox, Patricia Handmann, Christina Schmidt, Neil Fraser, Siren Rühs, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Torge Martin, Marilena Oltmanns, Clare Johnson, Willi Rath, N. Penny Holliday, Arne Biastoch, Stuart A. Cunningham, and Igor Yashayaev
Ocean Sci., 18, 1507–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1507-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Using results from a high-resolution ocean model, supported by observations, we propose that the leading cause is reduced surface cooling over the preceding decade in the Labrador Sea, leading to increased outflow of less dense water and so to freshening and cooling of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Yixi Zheng, David P. Stevens, Karen J. Heywood, Benjamin G. M. Webber, and Bastien Y. Queste
The Cryosphere, 16, 3005–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
New observations reveal the Thwaites gyre in a habitually ice-covered region in the Amundsen Sea for the first time. This gyre rotates anticlockwise, despite the wind here favouring clockwise gyres like the Pine Island Bay gyre – the only other ocean gyre reported in the Amundsen Sea. We use an ocean model to suggest that sea ice alters the wind stress felt by the ocean and hence determines the gyre direction and strength. These processes may also be applied to other gyres in polar oceans.
Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, and Tore Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
James R. Christian, Kenneth L. Denman, Hakase Hayashida, Amber M. Holdsworth, Warren G. Lee, Olivier G. J. Riche, Andrew E. Shao, Nadja Steiner, and Neil C. Swart
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4393–4424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean chemistry and biology modules of the latest version of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM5) are described in detail and evaluated against observations and other Earth system models. In the basic CanESM5 model, ocean biogeochemistry is similar to CanESM2 but embedded in a new ocean circulation model. In addition, an entirely new model, the Canadian Ocean Ecosystem model (CanESM5-CanOE), was developed. The most significant difference is that CanOE explicitly includes iron.
Yanxin Wang, Karen J. Heywood, David P. Stevens, and Gillian M. Damerell
Ocean Sci., 18, 839–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-839-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is important that climate models give accurate projections of future extremes in summer and winter sea surface temperature because these affect many features of the global climate system. Our results demonstrate that some models would give large errors if used for future projections of these features, and models with more detailed representation of vertical structure in the ocean tend to have a better representation of sea surface temperature, particularly in summer.
Greg H. Leonard, Kate E. Turner, Maren E. Richter, Maddy S. Whittaker, and Inga J. Smith
The Cryosphere, 15, 4999–5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4999-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4999-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
McMurdo Sound sea ice can generally be partitioned into two regimes: a stable fast-ice cover forming south of approximately 77.6° S and a more dynamic region north of 77.6° S that is regularly impacted by polynyas. In 2019, a stable fast-ice cover formed unusually late due to repeated break-out events. This subsequently affected sea-ice operations in the 2019/20 field season. We analysed the 2019 sea-ice conditions and found a strong correlation with unusually large southerly wind events.
Cited articles
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M. R.: Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 616–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0616-z, 2020. a
Ashley, K. E., McKay, R., Etourneau, J., Jimenez-Espejo, F. J., Condron, A., Albot, A., Crosta, X., Riesselman, C., Seki, O., Massé, G., Golledge, N. R., Gasson, E., Lowry, D. P., Barrand, N. E., Johnson, K., Bertler, N., Escutia, C., Dunbar, R., and Bendle, J. A.: Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat, Clim. Past, 17, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1-2021, 2021. a
Beadling, R. L., Krasting, J. P., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., Bronselaer, B., Russell, J. L., MacGilchrist, G. A., Tesdal, J.-E., and Winton, M.: Importance of the Antarctic Slope Current in the Southern Ocean Response to Ice Sheet Melt and Wind Stress Change, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2021JC017608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017608, 2022. a, b, c
Beadling, R. L., Lin, P., Krasting, J., Ellinger, W., Coomans, A., Milward, J., Turner, K., Xu, X., Martin, T., and Molina, M. J.: From the Surface to the Stratosphere: Large-Scale Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Meltwater, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL110157, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110157, 2024. a, b
Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Drijfhout, S. S., Wouters, B., and Katsman, C. A.: Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion, Nat. Geosci., 6, 376–379, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1767, 2013. a, b
Bintanja, R., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Katsman, C. A.: The effect of increased fresh water from Antarctic ice shelves on future trends in Antarctic sea ice, Ann. Glaciol., 56, 120–126, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG69A001, 2015. a, b
Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., and Tjiputra, J. F.: Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30° S and 55° S, Nat. Commun., 13, 340, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5, 2022. a
Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., Rodgers, K. B., Sergienko, O. V., Stouffer, R. J., and Russell, J. L.: Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater, Nature, 564, 53–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0712-z, 2018. a, b, c, d
Chen, J.-J., Swart, N. C., Beadling, R., Cheng, X., Hattermann, T., Jüling, A., Li, Q., Marshall, J., Martin, T., Muilwijk, M., Pauling, A. G., Purich, A., Smith, I. J., and Thomas, M.: Reduced Deep Convection and Bottom Water Formation Due To Antarctic Meltwater in a Multi-Model Ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL106492, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106492, 2023. a, b, c, d
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Holland, M. M., Large, W. G., Lauritzen, P. H., Lawrence, D. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Mills, M. J., Neale, R., Oleson, K. W., Otto-Bliesner, B., Phillips, A. S., Sacks, W., Tilmes, S., van Kampenhout, L., Vertenstein, M., Bertini, A., Dennis, J., Deser, C., Fischer, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Kay, J. E., Kinnison, D., Kushner, P. J., Larson, V. E., Long, M. C., Mickelson, S., Moore, J. K., Nienhouse, E., Polvani, L., Rasch, P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001916, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916, 2020. a
Danek, C. and Hauck, J.: Contrasting high-latitude mixed layer depth trends in Earth System Models and data products and their impact on temporal pCO2 variability, Clim. Dynam., 64, 211, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08109-z, 2026. a
Davison, B. J., Hogg, A. E., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Wuite, J., Nagler, T., Greene, C. A., Andreasen, J., and Engdahl, M. E.: Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021, Sci. Adv., 9, eadi0186, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi0186, 2023. a, b
de Lavergne, C., Palter, J. B., Galbraith, E. D., Bernardello, R., and Marinov, I.: Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 278–282, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2132, 2014. a
Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Battisti, D. S., and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.: Two-Way Teleconnections between the Southern Ocean and the Tropical Pacific via a Dynamic Feedback, J. Climate, 35, 6267–6282, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0080.1, 2022a. a
Dong, Y., Pauling, A. G., Sadai, S., and Armour, K. C.: Antarctic Ice-Sheet Meltwater Reduces Transient Warming and Climate Sensitivity Through the Sea-Surface Temperature Pattern Effect, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL101249, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101249, 2022b. a
Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arsouze, T., Bergman, T., Bernardello, R., Boussetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O'Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022. a
Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Adcroft, A. J., Ginoux, P., Held, I. M., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C. A., Zadeh, N., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Dunne, K. A., Dupuis, C., Durachta, J., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P. G., Griffies, S. M., Guo, H., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M., He, J., Hurlin, W., McHugh, C., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Nikonov, S., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Reichl, B. G., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Sentman, L. T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., and Zhao, M.: The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation Characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015, 2020. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fetterer, F., Knowles, K., Meier, W. N., Savoie, M., Windnagel, A., and Stafford, T.: Sea Ice Index (G02135, Version 4), Boulder, Colorado USA, National Snow and Ice Data Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.7265/A98X-0F50, 2025. a, b
Fogwill, C. J., Phipps, S. J., Turney, C. S. M., and Golledge, N. R.: Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input, Earth's Future, 3, 317–329, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000306, 2015. a
Goosse, H., Libera, S., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Richaud, B., Silvano, A., and Vancoppenolle, M.: Winter sea ice edge shaped by Antarctic Circumpolar Current pathways, The Cryosphere, 19, 5763–5779, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5763-2025, 2025. a
Gorte, T., Lovenduski, N. S., Nissen, C., and Lenaerts, J. T. M.: Antarctic Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge Drives Substantial Southern Ocean Changes Over the 21st Century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL104949, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104949, 2023. a
Gupta, M., Follows, M. J., and Lauderdale, J. M.: The Effect of Antarctic Sea Ice on Southern Ocean Carbon Outgassing: Capping Versus Light Attenuation, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, e2019GB006489, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006489, 2020. a
Hattermann, T. and Levermann, A.: Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica, Clim. Dynam., 35, 741–756, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0643-3, 2010. a
Held, I. M., Guo, H., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., Bushuk, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Xiang, B., Zhang, R., Anderson, W., Balaji, V., Donner, L., Dunne, K., Durachta, J., Gauthier, P. P. G., Ginoux, P., Golaz, J.-C., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harris, L., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., John, J., Lin, P., Lin, S.-J., Malyshev, S., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C. D., Ming, Y., Naik, V., Paynter, D., Paulot, F., Ramaswamy, V., Reichl, B., Robinson, T., Rosati, A., Seman, C., Silvers, L. G., Underwood, S., and Zadeh, N.: Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 3691–3727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001829, 2019. a
Heuzé, C.: Antarctic Bottom Water and North Atlantic Deep Water in CMIP6 models, Ocean Sci., 17, 59–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, 2021. a, b
Kaufman, Z., Wilson, E., Purich, A., Beadling, R., and Li, Y.: The Impact of Underestimated Southern Ocean Freshening on Simulated Historical Sea Surface Temperature Trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2024GL112639, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112639, 2025. a
Kelley, M., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Bauer, S. E., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cesana, G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B. I., Cruz, C. A., Del Genio, A. D., Elsaesser, G. S., Faluvegi, G., Kiang, N. Y., Kim, D., Lacis, A. A., Leboissetier, A., LeGrande, A. N., Lo, K. K., Marshall, J., Matthews, E. E., McDermid, S., Mezuman, K., Miller, R. L., Murray, L. T., Oinas, V., Orbe, C., García-Pando, C. P., Perlwitz, J. P., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tausnev, N., Tsigaridis, K., Tselioudis, G., Weng, E., Wu, J., and Yao, M.-S.: GISS-E2.1: Configurations and Climatology, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002025, 2020. a
Kim, B.-H., Seo, K.-W., Lee, C.-K., Kim, J.-S., Lee, W. S., Jin, E. K., and van den Broeke, M.: Partitioning the drivers of Antarctic glacier mass balance (2003–2020) using satellite observations and a regional climate model, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 121, e2322622121, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2322622121, 2024. a
Kuhlbrodt, T., Jones, C. G., Sellar, A., Storkey, D., Blockley, E., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Graham, T., Ridley, J., Blaker, A., Calvert, D., Copsey, D., Ellis, R., Hewitt, H., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Mulcahy, J., Siahaan, A., and Walton, J.: The Low-Resolution Version of HadGEM3 GC3.1: Development and Evaluation for Global Climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 2865–2888, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001370, 2018. a
Mackie, S., Smith, I. J., Ridley, J. K., Stevens, D. P., and Langhorne, P. J.: Climate Response to Increasing Antarctic Iceberg and Ice Shelf Melt, J. Climate, 33, 8917–8938, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0881.1, 2020a. a
Mackie, S., Smith, I. J., Stevens, D. P., Ridley, J. K., and Langhorne, P. J.: Interactions between Increasing CO2 and Antarctic Melt Rates, J. Climate, 33, 8939–8956, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0882.1, 2020b. a
Massom, R. A. and Stammerjohn, S. E.: Antarctic sea ice change and variability – Physical and ecological implications, Polar Sci., 4, 149–186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2010.05.001, 2010. a
Matthes, K., Biastoch, A., Wahl, S., Harlaß, J., Martin, T., Brücher, T., Drews, A., Ehlert, D., Getzlaff, K., Krüger, F., Rath, W., Scheinert, M., Schwarzkopf, F. U., Bayr, T., Schmidt, H., and Park, W.: The Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1 (FOCI1): mean state and variability, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020. a
Merino, N., Jourdain, N. C., Le Sommer, J., Goosse, H., Mathiot, P., and Durand, G.: Impact of increasing antarctic glacial freshwater release on regional sea-ice cover in the Southern Ocean, Ocean Model., 121, 76–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.11.009, 2018. a
Muilwijk, M., Hattermann, T., Beadling, R. L., Swart, N. C., Nummelin, A., Guo, C., Chandler, D. M., Langebroek, P. M., Zhou, S., Dutrieux, P., Chen, J.-J., Danek, C., England, M. H., Griffies, S. M., Haumann, F. A., Jüling, A., Jouet, O., Li, Q., Martin, T., Marshall, J., Pauling, A. G., Purich, A., Song, Z., Smith, I. J., Thomas, M., Trombini, I., van der Linden, E. C., and Xu, X.: Large regional differences in Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from Southern Ocean warming and meltwater feedbacks, The Cryosphere, 20, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, 2026. a
NCAR: HPE SGI ICE XA – Cheyenne, NCAR, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX, 2026. a
Parkinson, C. L.: A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 14414–14423, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1906556116, 2019. a
Pauling, A. G.: andrewpauling/sofiaice_tier1: sofiaice_tier1 v2.0, Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18476160, 2026. a
Pauling, A. G., Bitz, C. M., Smith, I. J., and Langhorne, P. J.: The Response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice to Freshwater from Ice Shelves in an Earth System Model, J. Climate, 29, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0501.1, 2016. a, b, c
Pauling, A. G., Smith, I. J., Langhorne, P. J., and Bitz, C. M.: Time-Dependent Freshwater Input From Ice Shelves: Impacts on Antarctic Sea Ice and the Southern Ocean in an Earth System Model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10454–10461, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075017, 2017. a, b
Purich, A. and England, M. H.: Projected Impacts of Antarctic Meltwater Anomalies over the Twenty-First Century, J. Climate, 36, 2703–2719, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0457.1, 2023. a, b
Rackow, T., Danilov, S., Goessling, H. F., Hellmer, H. H., Sein, D. V., Semmler, T., Sidorenko, D., and Jung, T.: Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations, Nat. Commun., 13, 637, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28259-y, 2022. a
Roach, L. A. and Meier, W. N.: Sea ice in 2023, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 5, 235–237, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00542-0, 2024. a
Roach, L. A., Dörr, J., Holmes, C. R., Massonnet, F., Blockley, E. W., Notz, D., Rackow, T., Raphael, M. N., O'Farrell, S. P., Bailey, D. A., and Bitz, C. M.: Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086729, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729, 2020. a
Roach, L. A., Mankoff, K. D., Romanou, A., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Haine, T. W. N., and Schmidt, G. A.: Winds and Meltwater Together Lead to Southern Ocean Surface Cooling and Sea Ice Expansion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105948, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105948, 2023. a
Schmidt, G. A., Romanou, A., Roach, L. A., Mankoff, K. D., Li, Q., Rye, C. D., Kelley, M., Marshall, J. C., and Busecke, J. J. M.: Anomalous Meltwater From Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves Is a Historical Forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL106530, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106530, 2023. a, b, c
Seland, Ø., Bentsen, M., Olivié, D., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y.-C., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020. a
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. a, b
Sgubin, G., Swingedouw, D., Drijfhout, S., Mary, Y., and Bennabi, A.: Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models, Nat. Commun., 8, 14375, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375, 2017. a
Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., van den Broeke, M., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P., Briggs, K., Joughin, I., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, T., Scambos, T., Schlegel, N., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A., Babonis, G., Barletta, V., Blazquez, A., Bonin, J., Csatho, B., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallee, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Groh, A., Gunter, B., Hanna, E., Harig, C., Helm, V., Horvath, A., Horwath, M., Khan, S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Konrad, H., Langen, P., Lecavalier, B., Loomis, B., Luthcke, S., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S., Mohajerani, Y., Moore, P., Mouginot, J., Moyano, G., Muir, A., Nagler, T., Nield, G., Nilsson, J., Noel, B., Otosaka, I., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Rietbroek, R., Rott, H., Sandberg-Sørensen, L., Sasgen, I., Save, H., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E., Schröder, L., Seo, K.-W., Simonsen, S., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T., Talpe, M., Tarasov, L., van de Berg, W. J., van der Wal, W., van Wessem, M., Vishwakarma, B. D., Wiese, D., Wouters, B., and The IMBIE team: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017, Nature, 558, 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y, 2018. a
Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., Gregory, J. M., Lee, V., Mathiot, P., Payne, A. J., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet, The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022. a
Slater, T., Lawrence, I. R., Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Tepes, P., Gilbert, L., and Nienow, P.: Review article: Earth's ice imbalance, The Cryosphere, 15, 233–246, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-233-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d
Stroeve, J. and Notz, D.: Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons, Environ. Res. Lett, 13, 103001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56, 2018. a
Swadling, K. M., Constable, A. J., Fraser, A. D., Massom, R. A., Borup, M. D., Ghigliotti, L., Granata, A., Guglielmo, L., Johnston, N. M., Kawaguchi, S., Kennedy, F., Kiko, R., Koubbi, P., Makabe, R., Martin, A., McMinn, A., Moteki, M., Pakhomov, E. A., Peeken, I., Reimer, J., Reid, P., Ryan, K. G., Vacchi, M., Virtue, P., Weldrick, C. K., Wongpan, P., and Wotherspoon, S. J.: Biological responses to change in Antarctic sea ice habitats, Front. Ecol. Evol., 10, 1073823, https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2022.1073823, 2023. a
Swart, N. C. and Fyfe, J. C.: The influence of recent Antarctic ice sheet retreat on simulated sea ice area trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4328–4332, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50820, 2013. a, b
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sigmond, M., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B.: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019. a
Swart, N. C., Martin, T., Beadling, R., Chen, J.-J., Danek, C., England, M. H., Farneti, R., Griffies, S. M., Hattermann, T., Hauck, J., Haumann, F. A., Jüling, A., Li, Q., Marshall, J., Muilwijk, M., Pauling, A. G., Purich, A., Smith, I. J., and Thomas, M.: The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f
Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Huybrechts, P., Goosse, H., Driesschaert, E., and Loutre, M.-F.: Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on future climate warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034410, 2008. a
Thomas, M., Ridley, J. K., Smith, I. J., Stevens, D. P., Holland, P. R., and Mackie, S.: Future Response of Antarctic Continental Shelf Temperatures to Ice Shelf Basal Melting and Calving, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102101, 2023. a
Wang, C. and Beckmann, A.: Investigation of the impact of Antarctic ice-shelf melting in a global ice–ocean model (ORCA2-LIM), Ann. Glaciol., 46, 78–82, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871602, 2007. a
Weiffenbach, J. E., Dijkstra, H. A., von der Heydt, A. S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chan, W.-L., Chandan, D., Feng, R., Haywood, A. M., Hunter, S. J., Li, X., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Stepanek, C., Tan, N., Tindall, J. C., and Zhang, Z.: Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2, Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024. a
Xu, X., Martin, T., Beadling, R. L., Liu, J., Bischof, S., Hattermann, T., Huo, W., Li, Q., Marshall, J. C., Muilwijk, M., Pauling, A. G., Purich, A., Smith, I. J., Swart, N. C., and Thomas, M.: Robustness and Mechanisms of the Atmospheric Response Over the Southern Ocean to Idealized Freshwater Input Around Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2024GL113734, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113734, 2025. a, b
Zhu, Z., Liu, J., Liu, Y., Martin, T., Song, M., Yang, C.-Y., Chai, W., and Yang, Q.: Implications of Realistic Antarctic Ice Shelf Basal Melting During 2006–2016 on Southern Ocean Climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 53, e2025GL119237, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL119237, 2026. a
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M. A., Law, R. M., Lenton, A., Bodman, R. W., Dix, M., Stevens, L., Wang, Y.-P., Srbinovsky, J., Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M. A., Law, R. M., Lenton, A., Bodman, R. W., Dix, M., Stevens, L., Wang, Y.-P., and Srbinovsky, J.: The Australian Earth System Model: ACCESS-ESM1.5, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 70, 193–214, https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19035, 2020. a
Short summary
Climate models typically do not include meltwater entering the Southern Ocean due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Previous work shows this meltwater drives sea ice growth, but the varying responses have been difficult to compare across models. We ran 11 climate models using the same meltwater input and found a wide range of sea ice responses depending on the background state in each model. Understanding this uncertainty in response is important for future projections of Antarctic sea ice.
Climate models typically do not include meltwater entering the Southern Ocean due to Antarctic...
