Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5761-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5761-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 09 Oct 2026
| 09 Oct 2026
Antarctic sea ice response to meltwater due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss in a multi-model ensemble
Andrew G. Pauling
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
Inga J. Smith
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Torge Martin
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Jeff K. Ridley
Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
David P. Stevens
Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Max Thomas
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Rebecca L. Beadling
Earth and Environmental Science Department, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Christopher Danek
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
Qian Li
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
John Marshall
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Morven Muilwijk
Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
Ariaan Purich
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment and ARC Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Kulin Nations, Australia
Neil C. Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Model code and software
andrewpauling/sofiaice_tier1: sofiaice_tier1 Andrew Pauling https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18476160
Short summary
Climate models typically do not include meltwater entering the Southern Ocean due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Previous work shows this meltwater drives sea ice growth, but the varying responses have been difficult to compare across models. We ran 11 climate models using the same meltwater input and found a wide range of sea ice responses depending on the background state in each model. Understanding this uncertainty in response is important for future projections of Antarctic sea ice.
Climate models typically do not include meltwater entering the Southern Ocean due to Antarctic...
